franz-josef lange strategic insight director europanel era

© Europanel GIE 2010 powered by GfK Panel Services and Kantar Worldpanel

Consumer Behaviour in Europe after 2 years of

financial crisis

Franz-Josef Lange

Strategic Insight Director EUROPANEL

ERA Packaging Conference,

Starnberg, November 03 rd 2010


Sources:

representative household panels by country. The panelists report,

What? Where? When? at Which Price?

they`ve

bought.

Copyright 2009 Europanel GIE3

Global footprint

Panel sample:123,000 W Europe 34,000 E Europe

Best granularity

Europanel Partner No service

France GermanyItaly NetherlandSpain UK

Austria BelgiumDenmark Greece Ireland NorwayPortugal Sweden

Bosnia BulgariaCroatia CzechiaHungary KazakhstanPoland RomaniaRussia SerbiaSlovakia UkraineTurkey

FMCG, inflation and the economy: Trends and Consumer Reactions

2010 to dateBased

on datasets:

France, Italy, Spain, UK to JuneGermany, NL, Portugal, Poland to May

Russia, Brazil, Mexico to April China, Japan to March

Austria, USA, to December

09


Price Inflation & Consumer Confidence Price inflation disappeared and consumer confidence recovering

Source : Eurostat

Consumer Confidence Indicator to June 2010

Consumer price inflation to May 2010


-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

© by GfK MarktforschungQuelle: Verbraucherumfrage der EU-Kommission, Indikatorberechnung GfK Marktforschung

Indikatorpunkte Indikatorpunkte

GfK-Indikator KonjunkturerwartungEinkommenserwartungAnschaffungsneigung

0899 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 09 10

08/10

GfK Consumer Climate Indicator:Expectations for: Overall Economy

Personal IncomePropensity to buy


Unemployment rate – to May 2010 Except Spain most rates have tended to stabilise recently

Source : Eurostat


Value change latest 12 months

‐50510152025

Franc

eGe

rman

yIta

ly NLSp

ain UKPo

land

Russi

aUS

ABr

azil

Mex

icoCh

inaJap

an

2010 to date, based

on datasets:France, Italy, Spain, UK to JuneGermany, NL, Portugal, Poland to MayRussia, Brazil, Mexico to April China, Japan to MarchAustria,

USA,

to

December

09


FMCG –

Changes in overall behaviour Averages for latest 12 months

Source Europanel and Eurostat for inflation


How price increases were absorbed: Germany to May 2010

MAT May 2010 4 weekly trends

Based on 294 FMCG categories

Volumes remain slightly down but some inflation is back and also down-trading


France

NL

Germany

Spain

Private Label Value

Shares

UK

Poland


Discounter Value

SharesFrance

NL

Germany

Spain

UK

Poland


Source Europanel Retailer Track

FMCG – Average number of top retailers visited per quarter General increase in ‘shopping around’

and hence less loyalty to retailers

UK

France

Germany

Spain

NL

200820072006

2009

Big 6 Total


Promotions

are

increasing

in importance

Percent of Total FMCG Sales (volume in Italy and USA) sold on promotion Sources: IRI, GfK, Kantar


InflationRecession

Quelle: 30.000er GfK Haushaltspanel ConsumerScan, FMCG ohne Frische

8,5 9,0 10,7 11,5 11,914,1 15,3 16,9 17,9

12,3

FCMG gesamt(ohne Frische)

Index 100 106 126 135 140 144 165 180 199

Recession

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200920022001 Jan. bis Juli2010

And this

trend

continues

–

example

Germany

Share of price promotions in turnover in %


Category type developmentHealth and home cooking to the fore

Health

Convenience

Home cooking

Indulgent

France Germany Spain UK NL Poland

Italy

Category types significantly more in the fastest growing categories over 2008 and 2009


Inflation has also impacted usage

Back to basics – more cooking at home, less going out

500 million extra meals

at home

€5 billion less out of home

Around 0.6% of FMCG


For the first time in three years the average TV viewing time has increased again compared to the previous year (Source: GfK Media Control, 05.01.10)

Trend towards Homing: More time at home

“My home is my castle““I clean my place much more““I invite more friends over now, in a private circle““We always meet Saturdays with the girls and have breakfast now at home and not in the bakery anymore. And everyone brings something along“

Source: Focus Groups carried out by the GfK Association (May 2009), Federal Statistical Office * own estimation based on DEHOGA publications and GfK TrinkTrends

Positive drivers for food retailing as the trend from out-of-home consumption is shifted towards in-home consumption

53,054,3

57,4 56,6 56,859,1

64,2

52,4

59,657,8

56,1 56,1

62,6Out-of-home consumption(in bn. €)

*Estimation -8%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200519981997 2006 2007 2008 2009


Trends during and after the Financial Crisis

• Food Inflation in 2008 -> Purchase Restraint, Down Trading in FMCGs. In 2009 and 2010 again growth of consumption.

• Inflation continuesly downwards. In all countries we`re measuring currently a volume increase.

• The financial crisis has touched the FMCG-consumption only slightly.

• Private Labels and Discounter retailers are stable today in many countries – however on the highest level ever reached.

• The consumer

• is visiting more single retailers per quarter, (shopping around),

• is more looking for promotions,

• is consuming more at home, and

• is looking after health.

• Inflation makes the major impact on FMCG-markets, not recession.


‐0.1

‐4

‐5

‐2

‐3

‐4

‐7

‐10

‐8

‐9

‐24

‐39

‐42

‐14

‐16

‐12

‐20

‐10Quarters

1.‐3.2009

Value durable goods vs

previous year in %

Durables markets collapse in many European countriesOnly Germany stable

20


-5-4-3-2-1012345

96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 0́7 '08 '09

-3,6

GDP growth rate (constant prices)

Source: INE

Unemployment rate

Source: Mineco.

2009, HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT YEARS

18,8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09

- 1.2 MILLION JOBS


-1,6

-16,2

-8,4-4,8

-17,9

1,8

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

%FOOD+DRUGSTORE+

PERFUMERY

CARS Industrial ProductionIndex

Value Textil Restaurants

% Value %Volume

A GOOD SITUATION FOR FMCG

Souerce INE, Kantar Worldpanel

% EVOL 2009 VS 2008

franz-josef lange strategic insight director europanel era

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