POM-QM QFORECASTING

Prepared by: Hanife DemiralpPrepared by: Hanife DemiralpSource: POM-QM for Windows

V i 3Version 3

FORECASTINGFORECASTINGzTime Series:

Suppose that data is given in the following table and forecast the demand for the week of February 14.

We are using (n=2) 2 k iweek moving average

Absolute Percentage gError = |Error| \ Demand

After 2 week (n=2) we have forecast in Error is =we have forecast in third week. Demand - Forecast

Example 2: Weighted Moving Average

Forecast for week 7 is (0.6*120) + (0 4*110)=116(0.4 110) 116

Forecast the demand for the week February 1414

Example 3: Exponential Smoothing

Value for smoothing constant, alpha, is 0.5

You can enter any b i thi lnumber in this column

for forecast. If you enter no number, starting forecast isstarting forecast is taken as starting demand.

Forecast the demandForecast the demand for the week of February 14

Example 4: Exponential thi ith t dsmoothing with trend

If beta is 0, single gexponential smoothing is performed. If beta is positive exponential smoothing with trend is performed

Forecast values Error is =Forecast values Error is Demand Adjusted Forecast

Example 5: Trend Analysis

Line that fits the data best is: y=104.33 + 1.857*x