conference analysis and forecasting - gbv

16th Conference on WeatherAnalysisand Forecasting

Symposium on the Research Foci oftheU.S. Weather Research Program

Sponsored by

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Front Cover: During 1-2 December 1992, a large and vigorous synoptic scale baroclinic cyclone, with embedded mesoscale waves,

progressed slowly northeastward from the Aleutian Island chain into west-central Alaska. A broad, deep and moist southerly and southeasterlyairflow over the entire state of Alaska and adjacent regions was associated with this system. Numerous pilot reports of in-flight aircraft icingover the southern half of Alaska were recorded, as well as reports of moderately strong turbulence over the mountainous terrain near

Anchorage, Alaska.

Given the high volume of light and heavy aircraft traffic in Alaska from commercial, military and privately owned aircraft (including manyair taxi and cargo operations), improved prediction of weather hazards is an important concern of the aviation community. As part of a

cooperative project between the University of Alaska-Fairbanks and the Alaska Region of the National Weather Service (NVVS/AR),described more fully in paper J5.1, page J3, entitled "Implementation of a High Resolution Mesoscale Model within an Operational NWSRegional Network" by Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and K. Gilkey, C. Scott, and O.-L. Wilkinson and sponsored by the

Cooperative program for Operational Meteorological Education and Training (COMET), the utility of high resolution mesoscale model

forecasts as supplemental guidance to aviation forecasting is being examined.

The cover figure shows a sample result from a nonhydrostatic multiply-nested grid simulation using version 5.2 of the Penn State/NCARMesoscale Model (MM5). Shown are the vertical velocity and mid-tropospheric quasi-horizontal wind fields at 21 UTC 1 December 1992

for a 6,67 km grid covering southcentral Alaska from Cook Inlet to just north of the Alaska Range (see paper J5.1 for more detailed

description of the grid structure). Vertical velocity is depicted for isosurfaces of +/- 1 m/s (yellow/blue surfaces) while the cyan vectors

represent mid tropospheric winds interpolated from the MM5 sigma vertical coordinate to a quasi-horizontal surface. The length of the vectors

indicates relative velocity. The figure represents a point of view looking northward and downward from the model top through the volume

covered by the 6.67 km grid. The topography in the domain, as derived from a digital elevation model (DEM), is depicted by the green,red and white colored surface at the lower edge of the volume.

Taken together, the fields indicate a combination of flow deformation and vertical motion primarily in the vicinity of the major terrain features,including Mt. McKinley (denoted by the red M) and Turnagain Arm (denoted by the white T), which represents an extension of Cook Inlet

between the Chugach and Kenai Ranges. Turnagain Arm is a favored area for strong vertical motions and turbulence (and indeed, (here

were PIREPs of turbulence recorded there for this event) and the triplet of-/+/- isosurfaces shown bears this out in the simulation.

The Vis5D visualization package, including the DEM resident within the package, is used for the 3-D depictions. The operational utility of

Vis5D animated sequences of MM5 forecast fields pertinent to icing and turbulence forecasts, as well as standard zone forecasts, is currentlybeing examined and a project is planned to incorporate much of the essential Vis5D functionality into the NWS/AR's networked LAN

environment with an internal GUI interface. The cover is sponsored by the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL

All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or copied in any form or by any means - graphic, electronic, or

mechanical, including photocopying, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems - without the prior written permission of the

publisher. Contact AMS For permission pertaining to the overall collection. Authors retain their individual rights and should be contacted

directly for permission to use their material separately. The manuscripts reproduced herein are unrefereed papers presented at the 16th

Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting and Symposium on Research Foci of the U.S. Weather Research

Program. Their appearance in this collection does not constitute formal publication.ir/TIB Hannover 89

117 218 596,

American Meteorological Society

45 Beacon Street, Boston, Massachusetts USA OSto5r$693

TABLE OF CONTENTS

16th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

page

iii foreword: 16th conference on weather analysis and forecasting

xx AUTHOR INDEX

xxvii FOREWORD: SYMPOSIUM ON THE RESEARCH FOCI OF THE U.S. WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAM

xxix TABLE OF CONTENTS

xxxi AUTHOR INDEX

SESSION 1: TROPICAL CYCLONES I

1 1.1 NORTH ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONGENESIS. W. Edward Bracken, Univ. at Albany/State Univ.

of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY

4 1.2 SIGNIFICANT TORNADO EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL AND HYBRID CYCLONES IN

FLORIDA. Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraton (NOAA)/NationalWeather Service (NWS), Melbourne, FL

7 1.3 SUPERTYPHOON DALE BOLDLY GOES WHERE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GONE BEFORE!

Lance F. Bosart, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and W. E. Bracken

9 1.4 HOW WELL DO WE FORECAST THE POSITION AND TIME OF HURRICANE LANDFALL? MarkD.

Powell, NOAA/Hurricane Research Division (HRD), Miami, FL; and S. Aberson

13 1.5 THE ORIGIN OF AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVES? Jerry W. Wegiel, Florida State Univ. (FSU),Tallahassee, FL; and C. G. Herbster

16 1.6 MESOSCALEASPECTS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE CHANGES DURING LANDFALL

AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. Patrick A. Harr, Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Monterey,CA; and R. L. Elsberry and T. F. Hogan

19 1.7 HURRICANE DANNY'S TRANSITION FROM A SYMMETRIC TO ASSYMETRIC HURRICANE IN

MOBILE BAY AND ITS FLASH FLOOD IMPLICATIONS. Keith G. Blackwell, Univ. of South Alabama,

Mobile, AL; and J. M. Medlin

22 1.8 RADAR-DERIVED RAINFALL ESTIMATES DURING HURRICANE BERTHA. Alan M. Cope,NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office (NWSFO), Mt. Holly, NJ

SESSION 2A: TRAINING, RESEARCH AND SERVICE

2A.1 WORLD WEATHER WATCH DELIVERY: PUBLIC WEATHER SERVICES AND WMO SUPPORTING

RESEARCH. Robert Landis, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland (InvitedPresentation)

25 2A.2 CONVECTIVE WATCH DECENTRALIZATION TRAINING. Brad N. Grant, NOAA/NWS/Operational

Support Facility (OSF), Norman, OK; and W. Abshire and P. Parrish

28 2A.3 USING COMET8 CASE STUDIES FOR METEOROLOGICAL TRAINING AND RESEACH. Julie

Adolphson, NOAA/NWS and University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)/CooperativeProgram for Operational Meteorology, Education and Training (COMET), Boulder, CO; and E. Davis

and L. Miller

31 2A.4 ADDRESSING THE NEED FOR FORECASTING EDUCATION IN UNDERGRADUATE CURRICULA.

Paul L. Sirvatka, College of DuPage, Glenn Ellyn, IL; and D. L Qulnn

34 2A.5 RETHINKING OUR WEATHER FORECAST SERVICE....MOVING BEYOND "PARTLY CLOUDY

WITH A 20% CHANCE OF A SHOWER". Steve Ricketts, Environment Canada, Edmonton, AB,

Canada

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16TH CONFERENCE ON WEATHER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

PAGE

SESSION 2B: SATELLITE METEOROLOGY

37 2B.1 THE USE OF WATER VAPOR (6.7 MICRON), PRECIPITABLE WATER, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY

FOR DETECTING ENVIRONMENTS THAT LEAD TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND FLASH

FLOODS. Roderick A. Scofield, NOAA/National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service

(NESDIS), Washington, DC; and G. A. Vicente and B. Rabin

40 2B.2 THE DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACT OF A PROCEDURE TO SPECIFY THE SPATIAL WATER

VAPOR DISTRIBUTION FROM RAOBS AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE CLOUD IMAGE DATA.

George D. Modica, Phillips Lab., Hanscom Air Force Base (AFB), MA; and A. E. Lipton

43 2B.3 EXPERIMENTAL MICROBURST IMAGE PRODUCTS DERIVED FROM GOES SOUNDER DATA.

Gary P. Ellrod, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC; and J. P. Nelson III

46 2B.4 A COMPARISON OF POLAR-ORBITER AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE DERIVED

PRECIPITATION ESTIMATATION TECHNIQUES. David S. Andrus, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt

AFB, NE; and B. A. Moore

48 2B.5 SATELLITE BASED AUTOMATED ESTIMATION OF PRECIPITATION: AN ASSESSMENT OF

ACCURACY. Michael A. Fortune, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wl and NOAA/NESDIS, Washington,DC; and R. A, Scofield

50 2B.6 MONITORING GULF OF CALIFORNIA MOISTURE SURGES WITH GOES-9 DATA AND THE WSR-

88D AT YUMA, ARIZONA. David R. Bright, NOAA/NWS, Tuscon, AZ; and D. M. McCollum

SESSION 3: WINDS AND TURBULENCE

53 3.1 MODELING HIGH WINDS IN COMPLEX TERRAIN - A CASE STUDY OF THE EASTERN SIERRA.

Mary M. Cairns, NOAA/NWSFO, Reno, NV; and J. Corey

56 3.2 USE OF THE ETA MODELTO DETERMINE THE ROLE OF STATIC STABILITY IN FORECASTING

SURFACE WINDS. James E. Lee, NOAA/NWSFO, Boston, MA; and M. Girodo

59 3.3 MICROBURST PREDICTION AND DETECTION IN THE WEST. Steve Vasiloff, NOAA/Environmental

Research Lab. (ERL)/National Severe Storms Lab. (NSSL) and NWS, Salt Lake City, UT

62 3.4 OBSERVATIONS AND SIMULATIONS OF THREE DOWNSLOPE WIND EVENTS OVER THE

NORTHERN WASATCH MOUNTAINS. Brett E. McDonald, NOAA and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City,UT; and J. D. Horel, C. J. Stiff, and W. J. Steenburgh,

65 3.5 AN INVESTIGATION OF A NEW OPERATIONAL TOOL FOR FORECASTING DOWNSLOPE

WINDSTORMS. Louisa B. Nance, UCAR/COMET, Seattle, WA

68 3.6 SHORT RANGE SIMULATION OF AN ALASKAN CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE EVENT. Jeffrey S.

Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and D.-L. Wilkinson and H. L. Kelley

71 3.7 A FOUR-DIMENSIONAL WIND ANALYSIS SYSTEM FOR THE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER. Walter

A. Lyons, FMA Research, Inc., Ft. Collins, CO; and T. E. Nelson and D. A. Moon

73 3.8 INVESTIGATING THE UTILITY OF 6-MINUTE WIND PROFILER DATA IN THE FORECAST

PROCESS. Richard L Livingston, NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO; and J. T. Schaefer

76 3.9 STUDYING THE SOUTH TEXAS SEA BREEZE USING A MESOSCALEMODEL INSTALLED AT THE

BROWNSVILLE, TEXAS, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. Mark E, Jackson, NOAA/NWS,

Brownsville, TX; and J. M. Schmidt and J. S. Snook

79 3.10 AN ADVANCED ALGORITHM TO DIAGNOSE ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE USING NUMERICAL

MODEL OUTPUT. Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/ERL/Forecast Systems Lab. (FSL), Boulder, CO

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16TH CONFERENCE ON WEATHER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTINGPAGE

SESSION 4: FRONTS, UPPER FRONTS, JETS AND CYCLOGENESIS I

82 4.1 OBSERVATIONS OF INERTIAL OSCILLATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF FRONTS. J. K. Lundquist,Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. Blumen

84 4.2 A CASE STUDY OF THE 10-11 NOVEMBER, 1995 INTENSE COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS. Jonathan L. Case, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. H. Carr

87 4.3 INTERACTION OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WITH THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS OF THE

WESTERN U.S. Ming-Jen Yang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and B. A. Colle, B. F.

Smull, R. A. Houze, Jr., and C.-K. Yu

4.4 FORECASTING OSCILLATIONS OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE

ROCKIES. Keith W. Meier, NOAA/NWS, Billings, MT; and J. V. Ausdall and W. Rasch

90 4.5 FORECASTING A CHARACTERISTIC STAGE IN THE EARLY EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVELCYCLOGENETIC PRECURSORS. David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. A. Doswell III

92 4.6 A CASE STUDY OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER FRONT USINGTHE COAMPS DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM. Ken J. Schwingshakl, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. M.

Pauley and T. R. Holt

95 4.7 A COMPARISONOF UPPER FRONT STRENGTH AS ANALYZED BY NORAPS AND AS OBSERVEDBY ACARS-EQUIPPED AIRCRAFT. Patricia M. Pauley, NPS, Monterey, CA; and E. L. Stephens

98 4.8 CYCLONIC AND ANTICYLONIC SOUTH AMERICAN COLD SURGES. Anthony R. Lupo, Univ. of

Missouri, Columbia, MO; and L. F. Bosart

101 4.9 HORIZONTAL DIVERGENCE IN TIME DEPENDENT JETS. Baruch Ziv, Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem,

Jerusalem, Israel; and N. Paldor

104 4.10 PREFERENTIAL STORM PATHWAYS AND TROUGH STRUCTURE THROUGH WESTERN NORTH

AMERICA: A CLIMATOLOGY AND CASE STUDIES. Eyad H. Atallah, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany,NY; and L. F. Bosart

POSTER SESSION P1: CONVECTION, HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING

106 P1.1 THE USE OF HIGH-FREQUENCY ACARS SOUNDINGS IN FORECASTING CONVECTIVE STORMS.

Richard D. Mamrosh, NOAA/NWS, Chicago, IL

109 P1.2 STORM-SCALE ASPECTS OF NON-CLASSIC, BORDERLINE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS

OVER PENNSYLVANIA. Matt L. Pearce, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and G. S. Forbes and

E. Ostuno

112 P1.3 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE

SYSTEMS: DIAGNOSTIC STUDY AND NUMERICAL SIMULATION. Yiqin Jia, Univ. of Kansas,

Lawrence, KS; and D. F. Tucker

115 P1.4 DEVELOPMENT OF A LOCAL 12-HOUR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING

TECHNIQUE FOR USE WITH RAOB OR MESOSCALEMODEL VERTICAL PROFILE DATA. David I.

Knapp, US Army Research Lab., White Sands Missile Range, NM; and J. E. Passner

118 P1.5 IMPROVING CONVECTIVE FORECASTS IN HUNGARY. Agnes Takacs, Hungarian MeteorologicalService, Budapest, Hungary; and E. I. Tollerud and C. M. I. R. Girz

P1.6 UTILITY OF THE PSU/NCAR MESOSCALE MODEL IN FORECASTING SEVERE LOCAL STORMS

FOR MILITARY OPERATIONS. George Gayno, AFGWC/SYM, Offutt AFB, NE; and R. J. Lefevre

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29 P1.12

32 P1.13

35 P1.14

121 P1.7 THE IMPACT OF A COLD POOL INITIALIZATION SCHEME ON A QPF FORECAST USING THE

NCEP MESOSCALE ETA MODEL. Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and

K. E. Mitchell and D. J. Stensrud

P1.8 ARIZONA DESERT THUNDERSTORM PREDICTION: SUCCESSES, FAILURES AND OPERA¬

TIONAL IMPLICATIONS. John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Denver, CO

P1.9 PAPER WITHDRAWN

124 P1.10 ANTICIPATION AND OBSERVATION OF A NORTHERN ARIZONA SUPERCELL OVER HIGH

TERRAIN. Steve Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ; and V. Passetti

127 P1.11 SEVERE WEATHER AND CONVECTIVE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING: A

PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR.

Bryan Rappolt, Henz Meteorological Services, Denver, CO

STUDIES OF LIGHTNING AND NON-LIGHTNING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THE JOHN F.

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER. Steven G. Hoffert, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

USE OF AN OPERATIONAL MESOSCALE MODEL TO FORECAST AND UNDERSTAND THE LAKE

BREEZE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. Ken Labas, NOAA/NWS, Chicago, IL; and R. W. Arritt

EXPLICIT REALTIME OPERATIONAL PREDICTION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER KOREA

DURING THE 1997 SUMMER MONSOON SEASON. Kyung-Sup Shin, Korean MeteorologicalAdministration, Seoul, Korea; and S.-K. Chung, S.-Y. Lee, H.-D. Yoo, D.-l. Lee, M. Xue, K. Brewster,G. Basset, S. K. Park, and K. K. Droegemeier

138 P1.15 FORECASTING STRONG WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE AT COLORADO SPRINGS:

MCAT97. John M. Brown, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and E. J. Szoke and D. Levinson

141 P1.16 ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF QUASI-STATIONARY STORM-SCALE CONVECTIVE EVENTS

OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. Brian A. Klimowski, NOAA/NWS, Rapid City, SD

144 P1.17 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING FOR AN EXTREME MESOSCALE FLASH FLOOD

EVENT. Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie

145 P1.18 THE APPLICATION OF GRIDDED ISENTROPIC DATA IN FORECASTING ILLINOIS' RECORD

RAINFALL EVENT OF JULY 17-18, 1996. Paul Merzlock, NOAA/NWSFO, Chicago, IL

P1.19 AN EVALUATION OF SHORT-TERM PREDICTION ON THE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS DURING

THE MEI-YU SEASON OF 1997 OVER THE TAIWAN AREA. Jack Ming-Sen Lin, Central Weather

Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and D. D.-Y. Wu

148 P1.20 THE 18 MAY, 1995 SQUALL LINE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY: AN EXAMINATION OF

COMPLEXSTORM REFLECTIVITY TRENDSAND MULTIPLE MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

Van L. DeWald, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY; and T. W. Funk, J. D. Kirkpatrick, and Y.-J. Lin

P1.21 COMBINING METEOROLOGY, CLIMATOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY TO EVALUATE "HIT" AND

"MISS" STATISTICS FOR MAJOR ARIZONA FLOOD EVENTS. Mark R. Love, Univ. of Arizona,

Tucson, AZ; and D. R. Bright and K. K. Hirschboeck

SESSION 5A: CONVECTION AND FORECASTING CONVECTION I

152 5A.1 DISCRETE FRONTAL PROPAGATION INDUCED BY CONVECTION. George H. Bryan, Penn State

Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Fritsch

502 5A.2 THE UTILITY OF MESOSCALE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF

CONVECTION. Dale A. Morris, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK

*

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16TH CONFERENCE ON WEATHER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTINGPAGE

5A.3 CAN COLD FRONTS ALOFT TRIGGER SQUALL LINES? John D. Locatelli, Univ. of Washington,Seattle, WA; and M. T. Stoelinga, R. D. Schwartz, and P. V. Hobbs

155 5A.4 MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS WITHIN A KANSAS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM 31 MAY1996-1 JUNE 1996. Robyn Weeks-Hulecki, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and M. L. Bentleyand D. F. Tucker

5A.5 PREDICTABILITYOF CONVECTION AND ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION UNDER CONDITIONS OFWEAKAND STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING. Paul J. Roebber, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wl;and M. K. Thomas, M. R. Westendorf, and D. A. Johnson

158 5A.6 THE SUMMER MONSOON PERIOD IN ARIZONA - WHAT DOES IT MEAN AND WHAT IS"MONSOON THUNDERSTORM"? Robert A. Maddox, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale

Meteorological Studies (CIMMSVUniv. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. W.Howard and D. M. McCollum

161 5A.7 ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG A DRYLINE. Ming Xue, Univ.of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Hou, D. Wang, and K. K. Droegemeier

164 5A.8 USING HOURLY MODEL-GENERATED SOUNDINGS TO FORECAST CONVECTION IN THE MID-

ATLANTIC REGION. Robert E. Hart, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and G. S. Forbes and

R. H. Grumm

SESSION 5B: FORECAST VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION

167 5B.1 AN EXAMINATION OF SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS AND VERIFICATION IN SOUTHEASTARIZONA. Richard Okulski, NOAA/NWS, Tuscon, AZ; and A. Bryant

170 5B.2 SKILL ASSESSMENT OF THE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS (PDS) TORNADO WATCHESISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. John E. Hales, Jr., Storm Prediction Center,Norman, OK

173 5B,3 VERIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE 48-KM ETA MODEL BEST CAPE AND BEST LI

FORECAST. Tanya M. Considine Cook, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and M. A. Shirey

176 5B.4 A PRELIMINARY INVESTIGATION OF TEMPERATURE ERRORS IN OPERATIONALFORECASTING MODELS Frank P. Colby, Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA

5B.5 AN EVALUATION OF LOCAL CLIMATE STATISTICS GENERATED FROM THE OUTPUT OF A 3-D

MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL. John W. Zack, MESO Inc., Troy, NY; and K. Waight III, M. D.

Bousquet, and G. E. Van Knowe

178 5B.6 SURFACE FORECAST GUIDANCE MADE FROM NUMERICAL MODELS. Stuart Wier,NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO

181 5B.7 VERIFICATION OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS FOR ALTA, UTAH, Lawrence B. Dunn,NOAA/NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. M. Ciliberti

SESSION 6A: QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION

184 6A.1 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OF THE "EARLY" ETA MODEL: AN UPDATE. Fedor

Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD

187 6A.2 REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM NCEP'S "EARLY'

ETA AND MESO-ETA MODELS. William E. Gartner, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and

M. E. Baldwin and N. W. Junker

6A.3 PAPER WITHDRAWN

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6A.4 A SHORT-TERM THUNDERSTORM QPF PREDICTION STRATEGY WITH POTENTIAL NATIONAL

APPLICATION. John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Denver CO

6A.5 THE USE OF CONTIGUOUS RAINFALL AREAS (CRAS) FOR EVENT/NON-EVENT FORECASTS

OF RAINFALL. John L McBride, Bureau of Meteorology Research Ctr. (BMRC), Melbourne, Vic,Australia; and E. E. Ebert


SESSION 6B: CONVECTION AND FORECASTING CONVECTION

190 6B.1 FORECASTING STORM GROWTH AND DECAY USING LOW-LEVEL RADAR DATA AND THE

ADJOINT METHOD. N. Andrew Crook, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun

193 6B.2 GENESIS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS NEAR THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. Donna F.

Tucker, Univ. of Kansas, Lawrence, KS

196 6B.3 MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS: SLAB CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OF DEEP MOIST

ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYERS. J. M. Fritsch, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and G. H.

Bryan

199 6B.4 COOL SEASON CONVECTIVE TRAINS. David W. Reynolds, NOAA/NWS, Monterey, CA

202 6B.5 CHARACTERISTICS OF WAKE FLOW REGIONS THAT FORM DOWNSTREAM OF

THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. Rodger A. Brown, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

205 6B.6 RESULTS FROM A SINGLE-DOPPLER RADAR STUDY OF KINEMATIC AND STRUCTURAL

CHARACTERISTICS OF MESOCYLONES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND GREAT PLAINS

REGIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. Christopher Vandersip, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh,NC; and S. E. Koch

SESSION 7A: OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS

208 7A.1 A QUALITY CONTROL SCHEME FOR LOCAL SURFACE MESONET OBSERVATIONS BASED ON

THE KALMAN FILTER: TESTS WITH REAL DATA. John A. McGinley, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and

P. A. Stamus

211 7A.2 A COMPARISON OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE CHART ANALYSIS. Richard P. McNulty,NOAA/National Weather Service Training Center (NWSTC), Kansas City, MO

A PROPOSED METHOD OF SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. Frederick Sanders, Marblehead, MA

DRAWING FRONTS OBJECTIVELY. Donald W. McCann, Aviation Weather Ctr., Kansas City, MO;and F. R. Mosher, J. P. Whistler, and X. Yu

PAPER WITHDRAWN

CORIOLIS EFFECTS IN OROGRAPHIC AND MESO-SCALE FLOWS. J. C. R. Hunt, Cerfacs and

IMFT, Toulouse, France and Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and H, Olafsson and P. Bougeault

224 7A.6 OBSERVED CHANGES IN ATOMSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER PROPERTIES AT MEMPHIS

INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT DURING AUGUST 1995. J. Allen Zak, Vigyan, Inc., Hampton, VA; and

W. G. Rodgers, Jr.

SESSION 7B: RADAR APPLICATIONS TO FORECASTING CONVECTIVE WEATHER

227 7B.1 EVALUATION OF THE WSR-88D HAIL ALGORITHM OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. Robert

A. Maddox, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. R. Bright, W. J. Meyer,and K. W. Howard

214 7A.3

218 7A.4

7A.5

221 7A.5a

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233 7B.2 PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ALONG A NARROW PRE-COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND. Richard

H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and D. L Michaud and K. P. Hlywiak

236 7B.3 A DOPPLER RADAR ANALYSIS OF THE 25 MAY 1996 SQUALL LINE EVENT ACROSS EAST

CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. Gary K. Schmocker, NOAA/NWS, St.

Charles, MO; and R. W. Przybylinskt and Y.-J. Lin

240 7B.4 PERFOMANCE OF RADAR CIRCULATION DETECTION ALGORITHMS: TEXAS TORNADOES 27

MAY 1997. Robert R. Lee, NOAA/NEXRAD/OSF, Norman, OK; and M. A. Magsig, G. J. Stumpf, and

E. D. Mitchell

243 7B.5 AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST TVS

INDICATED BY THE KEMX WSR-88D AND THE ROLL OF HORIZONTAL ROLL VORTICES.

W. James Meyer, NOAA/NWS, Tuscon, AZ; and D. R. Bright

SESSION 8A: FORECAST SYSTEMS AND MODELS

245 8A.1 ENHANCEMENTS TO THE OPERATIONAL "EARLY" ETA ANALYSIS AND FORECAST£

THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION. Geoffrey .

NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and M. E. Baldwin, T. L Black, F. Chen, F. Mes...3~ E.

Mitchell, D. Parrish, E. Rogers, and Q. Zhao

247 8A.2 AIR FORCE WEATHER GLOBAL THEATER WEATHER ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION SYSTEM.

William H. Bauman III, Air Force Weather Agency, Scott AFB, IL; and R. J. Lefevre

249 8A.3 THE OPERATIONAL RUC-2. Stanley G. Benjamin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, K. J.

Brundage, B. E. Schwartz, T. G. Smirnova, T. L. Smith, L. L. Morone, and G. J. DiMego

253 8A.4 DEVELOPMENTOF A 15 KM MODEL AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTER. Gerard

Pellerin, Atmospheric Environment Service (AES), Dorval, PQ, Canada; and A. Methot, R. Moffet, and

A. Patoine

8A.5 OPERATIONAL SHORT-RANGE REGIONAL FORECASTING AT THE CANADIAN

METEOROLOGICAL CENTER. Jean Cote, Environment Canada, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J.

Desmarais, S. Gravel, A. Methot, A. Patoine, M. Roch, and A. Staniforth

256 8A.6 A LONG-RANGE ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT MODEL (HY-SPLIT) FOR ENVIRONMENTAL

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: EVALUATION OF DRIVING MODELS. Jan H. Vermeulen, Weather

Bureau, Pretoria, South Africa

258 8A.7 CONTRIBUTIONSTOWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A FUTURE COMMUNITY MESOSCALE MODEL

(WRF). Zavisa I. Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and UCAR Visiting Scientist, Washington, DC; and T. L.

Black and G. J. DiMego

262 8A.8 APPLICATION OF A LOCAL ANALYSIS SYSTEM IN HIGHLY VARIABLE TERRAIN. Steven M.

Lazarus, NOAA and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. M. Ciliberti and J. D. Horel

8A.9 Refer to the 12th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, Poster Session P1, Paper P1.13

SESSION 8B: HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS AND FLASH FLOOD FORECASTING

265 8B.1 FLASH FLOOD PREDICTION IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC: A UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII AND

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RESEARCH COLLABORATION. Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii,

Honolulu, HI; and J. N. Porter, J.-J. Wang, K. Kodama, P. A. Jendrowski, and R. Pierce

267 8B.2 A COMPARISON OF COOL SEASON AND WARM SEASON HEAVY RAIN EVENTS IN THE MID-

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. James T. Moore, St. Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO; and S. R. Considine, S. M.

Rochette, F. H. Glass, and T. M. Tworek

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8B.3 Refer to Poster Session P2, Paper P2.4a

8B.3a MESOSCALE MODEL INVESTIGATIONS OF AN UNUSUAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HEAVY

PRECIPITATION EVENT IN FEBRUARY 1990. Warren Blier, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA;and R. Terra

8B.4 QUANTITATIVE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION PREDICTION: APPLICATIONS TO RECENT 1996

AND 1997 FLASH FLOODING EVENTS. John F. Henz, Henz Meteorological Services, Denver, CO

270 8B.5 SCALE INTERACTION IN A CALIFORNIA PRECIPITATION EVENT. Martin J. Leach, Lawrence

Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA; and J. Kong

273 8B.6 THE USE OF MESOSCALE DATA TO IMPROVE FORECASTING OF SMALL-SCALE EXTREME

WEATHER EVENTS: THE AMES, IOWA FLOOD CASE. William A. Gallus, Jr., Iowa State Univ.,Ames, IA

275 8B.7 AN ANALYSIS OF THE 4 SEPTEMBER 1996 HICKORY NUT GORGE FLASH FLOOD IN WESTERN

NORTH CAROLINA. Thomas P. Johnstone, NOAA/NWS, Greer, SC; and S. A. Burrus

278 8B.8 MESOSCALE MODEL PERFORMANCE DURING THE HIGHLY ORGRAPHIC FLOOD EVENT OF

JANUARY 1997 OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. Scott M. Archer, NOAA/NWS,

Monterey, CA

SESSION 9A : SEVERE WEATHER

281 9A.1 ON THE FORECASTING OF SEVERE CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE: THE ROLE OF

TOPOGRAPHY. Howard B. Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. M. Crawford

283 9A.2 THE IMPACT OF ONSHORE WINDS ON SEVERE CONVECTION IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW

ENGLAND. Robert C. Burton, NOAA/NWSFO, Boston, MA

286 9A.3 THE USE OF WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC RETRIEVALS TO CREATE INITIAL FORECAST

FIELDS FROM SINGLE-DOPPLER OBSERVATIONS OF A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM.

Stephen S. Weygandt, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and A. Shapiro and K. K. Droegemeier

289 9A.4 IMPACT OF OBSERVATIONS ON THE NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF THE 17 AUGUST 1994LAHOMA SUPERCELL HAILSTORM. Jinxing Zong, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K.

Droegemeier and M. Xue

292 9A.5 PHYSICAL PREDICTION METHOD FOR RADAR ECHO IMAGES WITH STATISTICAL DATA FROM

IMAGE FEATURES. Hidetomo Sakaino, NTT Human Interface Labs., Yokosuka, Japan; and S.

Suzuki and F. Adachi

295 9A.6 DOWNBURSTS AND GUSTNADOES FROM MINI-BOW ECHOES AND AFFILIATED MESOSCALE

CYCLONES OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. Gregory S. Forbes, Penn State Univ., UniversityPark, PA; and M. L, Pearce, T. E. Dunham, and R. H. Grumm

SESSION 9B: WINTER PHENOMENA I

298 9B.1 WINTER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UNITED STATES. Ronald L. Holle, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK;and J. V. Cortinas, Jr. and C. C. Robbins

301 9B.2 INTEGRATION OF SNOW GAGE AND WSR-88D DATA DURING SNOW EVENTS IN UTAH. Steve

Vasiloff, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK and NWS, Salt Lake City, UT

305 9B.3 THE MONTAGUE SNOWBURSTOF 11-12 JANUARY 1997: MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS.

Robert Ballentine, SUNY, Oswego, NY; and A. Stamm, G. Byrd, J. Maliekal, D. Schleede, J.

Waldstreicher, and E. A. Mahoney

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9B.4

* 9B.5

308 9B.6


Paper moved to Poster Session P2, Paper P2.34

COLORADO'S SUMMER SNOWSTORM OF 1995. Eric R. Thaler, NOAA/NWS, Denver, CO

HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL SIMILATIONS OF FINGER LAKES SNOW BANDS. Joshua S.

. Watson, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and M. L. Jurewicz, Sr., R. J. Ballentine, S. J. Colucci, and J. S.

Waldstreicher

SESSION 10A: SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADOES

311 10A.1 A COMPARISON OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH F5

TORNADOES IN THE 1990S. Paul R. Janish, Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and J. T.

Schaefer

314 10A.2 OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE GENERATION AND TRANSPORT OF

A CENTRAL AMERICAN AIR MASS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. PRIOR TO A TORNADO

OUTBREAK. Michael L. Kaplan, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and J. M. Egentowich, Y.-L

Lin, A. J. Riordan, and R. A. Rozumalski

320 10A.3 A RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF TORNADIC STORM UPDRAFT EVOLUTION ON 27 MAY

1997. Michael A. Magsig, NOAA/NEXRAD/OSF, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue, D. W. Burgess, and

R. R. Lee

323 10A.4 NOWCASTING OF EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS LIKE LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE RAIN

OR HAIL IN CENTRAL EUROPE. Werner Wehry, Free Univ., Berlin, Germany; and L. Lesch and C.

Gerecht

326 10A.5 RECORD HEAT FOLLOWED BY UNUSUALLY INTENSE DRY MICROBURSTS AND HEAT BURSTS

OVER PHOENIX ON 28 JULY 1995. G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and J. A. Haro

329 10A.6 LARGE HAIL DISTRIBUTION ON THE HIGH PLAINS. Mathew C. Jezewski, Lawrence, KS; and D. F.

Tucker

332 10A.7 MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, INTERSECTIONS, AND STORM-RELATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL

HELICITY AS FACTORS IN WEAK SUPERCELL AND TORNADO FORMATION OVER

PENNSYLVANIA. Matt L. Pearce, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and G. S. Forbes and D. J.

Nicosia

335 10A.8 SOUTHERN ARIZONA SEVERE CONVECTIVE STORMS OF 14 AND 29 AUGUST 1996:

SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES. Jesus A. Haro, NOAA/NWS, Phoenix, AZ; and G. D. Green and

C. L. Dempsey

SESSION 10B: WINTER PHENOMENA II

338 10B.1 NEW DEFINITIONS OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR IN-FLIGHT ICING.

John D. Marwitz, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and M. Thomas

341 10B.2 MESOSCALE MODEL EVALUATION DURING THE APPALACHIAN COLD AIR DAMMING. Devin P.

Kramer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Koch

344 10B.3 AN EXAMINATION OF THE 27 JANUARY 1996 NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA RAIN SHADOW.

Raymond H. Brady, NOAA/NWS, Binghampton, NY; and J. S. Waldstreicher

350 10B.4 AN OKLAHOMA BLIZZARD. David A. Cissell, Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and J. D. Marwitz

353 10B.5 SIMILATIONS OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SNOWBANDS TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT

SALT LAKE. Daryl J. Onton, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

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355 10B.6 MESOSCALESNOWBANDS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS. David J. Nicosia, NOAA/NWS,State College, PA; and R. H. Grumm

POSTER SESSION P2: RAIN, WINTER WEATHER PHENOMENA, ETC.

P2.1 RELATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTIONS BY THE THERMAL WIND OVER ARGENTINA. Nora E. Ruiz,Univ. of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

358 P2.2 A SYNOPTIC COMPARISON OF TWO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE OHIO RIVER

VALLEY. Patrick S. Market, St. Louis Univ., St. Louis, MO; and J. T. Moore, S. R. Considine, T. W.

Funk, and S. M. Rochette

362 P2.3 EXPERIMENTAL AUTOMATED DECISION TREE FOR FORECASTING HEAVY RAINS FROM MID-

LATITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. G. Alan Johnson, NOAA/NWSFO, New Orleans, LA; and J.

Moser and R. Ricks

P2.4 Refer to Session 8B, Paper 8B.3a

365 P2.4a EXTREME RAINFALL RATES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND ASSOCIATED

METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS. Charles H. Jones, NOAA/NWS, Mount Holly, NJ; and J. K.

Franklin

368 P2.5 MONITORING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SUMMER MONSOON USING GOES-9 DATA. Kevin J.

Schrab, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT

371 P2.6 GOES MULTI SPECTRAL ALGORITHM FOR QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION (QPE).Mamoudou B. Ba, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC; and A. Gruber

374 P2.7 PRECIPITATION REGIMES DURING COLD-SEASON INVERTED TROUGH CASES IN THE

CENTRAL U.S. Robert A. Weisman, St. Cloud State Univ., St. Cloud, MN; and K. G, McGregor and

P. N. Schumacher

377 P2.8 A CASE STUDY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH PRECIPITATION LOCATED AHEAD. Philip N.

Schumacher, NOAA/NWS, Grand Forks, ND; and G. S. Frosig and R. A. Weisman

378 P2.9 ICESTORMS IN EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO: CLIMATOLOGY AND A

SIGNIFICANT EVENT. John Livingston, NOAA/NWS, Spokane, WA; and R. Miller, P. Frisbie, D. Rife,and T. Carter

381 P2.10 A REVIEW OF APPROACHES TO WEATHER WARNING VERIFICATION IN THE PACIFIC AND

YUKON REGION. Bradley J. Snyder, Environment Canada, Kelowna, BC, Canada

385 P2.11 FORECASTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: AN INGREDIENTS-BASED METHODOLOGY

SUPPORTING THE GARCIA METHOD. Daniel D. Nietfeld, NOAA/NWS, Topeka, KS; and D. A.

Kennedy

388 P2.12 EXPERIMENTS WITH BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE USING NCEP'S

MESOSCALE ETA MODEL. Michael E. Baldwin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and General Sciences Corp.(GSC), Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Hrebenach

390 P2.13 THE USE OF ETA AND MESOETA HOURLY MODEL-GENERATED SOUNDINGS AND DERIVED

PRODUCTS TO FORECAST WINTER WEATHER. Robert E. Hart, Penn State Univ., University Park,PA; and G. S. Forbes and D. J. Nicosia

393 P2.14 OPERATIONAL USE OF A MESOSCALE MODEL FOR PREDICTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN

UPSTATE NEW YORK. Jeff S. Waldstreicher, NOAA/NWS, Binghampton, NY; and E. A. Mahoney,R. J. Ballentine, D. Schleede, J. Maliekal, and S. J. Colucci

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397 P2.15 REAL-TIME TESTING OF A SNOW ALGORITHM IN THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE 1996-

1997 WINTER SEASON. Richard J. Naistat, NOAA/NWS, Chanhassen, MN; and A. B. Super and

D. W.Effertz

P2.16 A 25 YEAR FREEZING RAIN CLIMATOLOGY. L S. Olthoff, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and R. M.

Rauber, K. E. Kunkel, and M. K. Ramamurthy

400 P2.17 USE OF MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INTEGRATED DATASETS IN CONDUCTING

A HANDS-ON CASE STUDY FOR TRAINING. Julie L. Adolphson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD;and D. A. Wesley and A. Mostek

403 P2.18 A SURPRISE SNOWSTORM? A COMPARISON OF THE FEBRUARY 16,1996 SNOWSTORM WITH

MAJOR SNOWSTORMS OF THE PAST. Norman W. Junker, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD;and J. Carr and P. J. Kocin

P2.19 THE SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP'S USE OF GOES SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTSFOR SPACE SHUTTLE WEATHER FORECASTING. Mark Keehn, NOAA/NWS, Johnson SpaceflightCenter, Houston, TX; and K. Shelton-Mur

406 P2.20 SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES IN REAL TIME FOR APPLICATIONS TO FLASH FLOOD

WATCHES AND WARNINGS, HEAVY PRECIPITATION FORECASTING AND ASSIMILATION ON

NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS. Gilberto A. Vicente, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington,DC; and R. A. Scofield

P2.21 Refer to Session 11A, paper number 11A.7

P2.22 THE STATUS OF THE USE OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCTS FOR

PRECIPITATION PREDICTION. Ralph R. Ferraro, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and S.

Kusselson

P2.23 FORECAST DECISION FOR SPACE SHUTTLE MISSION STS-84 USING HIGH RESOLUTION

GOES-8 IMAGERY. G. Wayne Baggett, NOAA/NWS, Houston, TX; and D. A. Rotzoll and D. G. Bellue

409 P2.24 A CLIMATOLOGY OF TROPOSPHERIC STATIC STABILITY ACROSSTHE CONTIGUOUS UNITED

STATES. John V. Cortinas, Jr., NOAA/NSSL and Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and C.

A. Doswell III

P2.25 Refer to the 10th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the Air and

Waste Management Association, Session 8A, Paper 8A.7

412 P2.26 A SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA HABOOB-THE 28 JULY 1994 WIND AND DUST STORM. PART 1:

EVENT FORECASTIBILITY. Hector R. Vasquez, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and J. Fausett, S.

Sipple, W. T. Estle, J. A. Haro, W. Wojcik, R. Berkovitz, D. Sturm, N. Cushmeer, and A. Jamison

415 P2.27 A SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA HABOOB-THE 28 JULY 1994 WIND AND DUSTSTORM. PART2:

RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. Robert E. Wilt, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and C. A.

Breckenridge, J. T. Davis, M. W. Franjevic, W. Wojcik, and N. Cushmeer

P2.28 Refer to the 14th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Session 9,

Paper 9.5

418 P2.29 MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS. Mathew Zika, NOAA/NWS/NCEP,

Camp Springs, MD; and P. J. Kocin

421 P2.30 NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS: AN UPDATE. Paul J. Kocin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD;and L. W. Uccellini, K. F. Brill, and M. Zika

424 P2.31 A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF TWO WINTER COASTAL STORMS: 12-15 MARCH 1993 AND 6-9

JANUARY 1996. Laura E. Holtmeier, US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith

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428 P2.32 A LOOK AT MEASURES AND DISTRIBUTION ORIENTATION TEMPERATURE VERIFICATION FOR

WFO-PLEASANT HILL, MO. Mark J. Mitchell, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO

431 P2.33 SMG DAILY FORECAST VERIFICATION, THE NEXT STEP. D. G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Johnson

Space Ctr., Houston, TX

434 P2.34 USING Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE TO FORECAST THE LOCATION OF HEAVY SNOW WITH

LIFTING SOUTHWEST U.S. LOWS. Michael J. Bodner, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO (formerlypaper 9B.4)

SESSION 11 A: STATISTIC METEOROLOGICAL GUIDANCE

437 11A.1 A GENERAL OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATIONS OF THE LOCAL AWIPS MOS

PROGRAM (LAMP), A SHORT-RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE PRODUCT. D. Scott Kelly,NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. E. Ghirardelle

440 11A.2 EVALUATION OF LAMP QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. Jerome P. Charba,NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

443 11 A.3 STATISTICAL WEATHER FORECASTING AS A LINK BETWEEN NWP, SYNOPTICS AND THE

CUSTOMER. Klaus Knupffer, Meteo Service Weather Research, Berlin, Germany

446 11A.4 ETA-BASED MOS QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN AN ERA OF RAPIDLY

CHANGING NUMERICAL MODELS: HOW WELL CAN WE DO? Mark S. Antolik, NOAA/NWS, Silver

Spring, MD


450 11A.6 A STATISTICAL SYSTEM TO FORECAST SNOWFALL AT BOSTON. Adam Cohen, Alden

Electronics, Westboro, MA

453 11A.7 PROBABILISTIC 0-3 HOUR RAINFALL FORECASTS FROM A SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATIVE-

STATISTICAL TECHNIQUE. David H. Kitzmiller, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

SESSION 11B: GRAVITY WAVES

456 11B.1 LARGE-AMPLITUDE INERTIAL-GRAVITY WAVE ENVIRONMENTS: THREE-DIMENSIONALSTRUCTURE AND MULTISCALE EVOLUTION. Eric G. Hoffman, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY;and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

458 11 B.2 NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE EVOLUTION OF GRAVITY WAVES DURING STORMFEST. Brian F.

Jewett, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and M. K. Ramamurthy and R. M. Rauber

460 11 B.3 THE NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND VALIDATION OF A BREAKING GRAVITY WAVE DURING

FASTEX. James D. Doyle, NRL, Montery, CA; and M. A. Shapiro, D. Battels, and R. Gall

463 11B.4 VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF A MESOSCALE GRAVITY WAVE EVENT DETECTED DURING

STORM-FEST. C. Michael Trexler, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Jin and S. E. Koch

466 11B.5 MODEL PREDICTABILITY OF THE GRAVITY WAVE EVENT OF 14 FEBRUARY 1992 DURING

STORM-FEST. Yi Jin, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and S. E. Koch

469 11 B.6 A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF INTENSE GRAVITY WAVES

AND A SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE. Mark E. Jackson, NOAA/NWS, Brownsville, TX; and P. A.

Yura

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SESSION 12: FORECAST SYSTEMS APPLICATIONS

472 12.1 EVALUATION OF THE AWIPS THUNDERSTORM PRODUCT. Michael E. Churma, Research and

Data Systems Corp., Silver Spring, MD; and S. B. Smith

475 12.2 LIGHTNING FORECASTING EMPIRICAL TECHNIQUES FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA IN SUPPORT OF

AMERICA'S SPACE PROGRAM. William P, Roeder, 45th Weather Squadron, Patrick AFB, FL; and

C. S. Pinder

478 12.3' CLOUD ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS FOR IMETS. Jeffrey E. Passner, US Army Research Lab.,

White Sands Missile Range, NM

481 12.4 CLOUD COVER FORECASTING TO OPTIMIZE THE PROGRAMMING OF SPOT. P, Lamarque,

Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and M. Bouzom

484 12.5 CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF FOG EVENTS IN COMPLEX TERRAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF

INDUSTRAIL WATER VAPOR EMISSIONS. Douglas A. Stewart, Environmental Dynamics Research,

Inc., Lantana, FL; and L. E. Branscome and N. M. Nolen

487 12.6 THE IMPLEMENTATION OF LOCAL SURFACE CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN A SITE-SPECIFIC

MODEL FOR SHORT RANGE FORECASTING. W. P. Hopwood, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks.,

UK

490 12.7 AN APPLICATION OF THE LOCAL ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION SYSTEM TO THE COMPLEX

TERRAIN OF WESTERN NEVADA. Brian S. Brong, Desert Research Inst, and Univ. of Nevada,

Reno, NV; and M, M. Cairns and T. J. Brown

493 12,8 AUTOMATED ATMOSPHERIC ANALYSIS AND VERY SHORT-TERM FORECASTING FOR

TERMINAL AREA OPERATIONS. Robert Tardif, Univ. of Quebec, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and P.

Zwack

496 12.9 THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VISIBILITY ANALYSIS AND VERY-SHORT-RANGE FORECASTING

SYSTEM. Bruce J. Wright, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK; and N. Thomas

499 12.10 THE 1996 NSSL WARNING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM TEST AT THE MINNEAPOLIS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. Richard J. Naistat, NOAA/NWS,

Chanhassen, MN; and G. J. Stumpf

12.11 APPLICATION OF THE NCEP REGIONAL SPECTRAL MODELTO IMPROVE SEVERE WEATHER

FORECASTS IN HAWAII. Jian-Jian Wang, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and H. H. Juang, K. Kodama,

and J. Partain

JOINT SESSION J5: APPLICATIONS IN WEATHER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING (Joint with 14th

International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (UPS) for Meteorology,

Oceanography, and Hydrology)

J3 J5.1 IMPLEMENTATION OF A HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODEL WITHIN AN OPERATIONAL

NWS REGIONAL NETWORK. Jeffrey S. Tilley, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and K. Gilkey,

C. Scott, and D.-L. Wilkinson (colorpages)

J8 J5.2 PROBABILISTIC QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS BASED ON THE NCEP GLOBAL

ENSEMBLE. Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Z. Toth, E. Kalnay, and M. S.

Tracton

J12 J5.3 INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE FOR PROBABILISTIC QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION

FORECASTING. H. Wray Mills II, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and R. Krzysztofowicz

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J17 J5.4 IMPACT OF THE NWS MODERNIZATION EFFORT ON THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OF NWS

PRODUCTS AND SERVICES RELATED TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FORECAST AND WARNING

PROGRAMS: USER SURVEY RESULTS. Mark A. Wool, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY

J22 J5.5 THE SYSTEM FOR CONVECTION ANALYSIS AND NOWCASTING (SCAN). Stephan B. Smith,

NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; et al.

J25 J5.6 WARNING DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: THE NEXT GENERATION. J. T. Johnson, NOAA/NSSL,

Norman, OK; and et al.

J5.7 SURVEILLING A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM USING GOES IMAGERY, WSR-88D RADAR DATA,

AND IN-SITU VIDEO. Brian C. Motta, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft., Collins, CO

J29 J5.8 WANDA: HRD'S REAL-TIME TROPICAL CYCLONE 'WIND ANALYSIS DISTRIBUTED

APPLICATION'. Luis R. Amat, Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. D. Powell and S. H. Houston

JOINT SESSION J1: FORECAST QUALITY AND VALUE -1 (Invited Session; Joint with 14th Conference on

Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; Cosponsored by Committee on Societal Impacts)

J35 J1.1 KEYNOTE ADDRESS: EVALUATION OF THE SOCIETAL "GOODNESS" OF FORECASTS: A

REVIEW AND ASSESSMENT. Roger A. Pielke, Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO

J1.2 THE QUALITY OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION OVER THE LAST 25 YEARS. EugeniaKalnay, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

J1.3 REVIEW OF SKILL OF CPC REAL TIME LONG LEAD PREDICTIONS. Huug M. Van den Dool,

NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

J39 J1.4 THE NWS NATIONAL VERIFICATION PROGRAM. Paul D. Polger, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD

J1.5 THE QUALITY AND VALUE OF A PRIVATE WEATHER FORECAST SERVICE. Christopher D.

Bedford, Weather Services Corp., Lexington, MA

JOINT SESSION J2: FORECAST QUALITY AND VALUE - 2 (Joint with 14th Conference on Probability and

Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; Cosponsored by Committee on Societal Impacts)

J2.1 MATURING OF OUR PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. John W.

Zillman, BOM, Melbourne, Vic, Australia (Invited Presentation)

J47 J2.2 MEASURING THE QUALITY OF A NATIONAL-SCALE WEATHER PROGRAM. Bill Maynard,Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada; and H. Stanski, O. Abramowski, A. Hanssen, D. Spiegl,K. Macdonald, and D. Wintjes

J53 J2.3 A STUDY OF FIVE-DAY WEATHER FORECASTS FROM DENVER TV STATIONS AND

NEWSPAPERS. Brooks E. Martner, NOAA/Environmental Technology Lab. (ETL), Boulder, CO; andM. K. Politovich

J61 J2.4 VALUE OF WEATHER FORECASTS FOR ELECTRIC UTILITY LOAD FORECASTING. Harold E.

Brooks, NOAA/ERL/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. P. Douglas

J65 J2.5 VERIFICATION OF THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER'S IN-FLIGHT AVIATION WEATHERADVISORIES: THE METHODS, COMPLEXITIES, AND LIMITATIONS. Jennifer Luppens Mahoney,NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, D. Matthews, and F. R. Mosher

J70 J2.6 THE USE OF CLIENT SURVEYS IN WEATHER SERVICES PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENTJasmin Paola, AES, Environment Canada, Downsview, ON, Canada; and J. Shaykewich

J74 J2.7 AN EXPERIMENT TO ESTABLISH THE LIMITS OF OUR PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY. Harvey Stern,BOM, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

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TABLE OF CONTENTS


PAGE

JOINT SESSION J3: MESOSCALE MODEL SIMULATIONS OF MCSs (Joint with 12th Conference on

Numerical Weather Prediction)

J3.1 SCALE INTERACTION AND COMPLEX CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR DURING THE NORTHERN

ILLINOIS MCS OF 17-18 JULY 1996. Steven R. Silberberg, Northern Illinois Univ., DeKalb, IL

J83 J3.2 FORECAST OF A SEVERE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT IN MM5 USING EXPLICIT MOIST

PHYSICS AT4-KM RESOLUTION. Nelson L. Seaman, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and

S. A. Michelson, P. C. Shafran, and D. R. Stauffer

J87 J3.3 MULTI-SCALE NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF A DERECHO-PRODUCING MCS. Ligia R. Bernardet,Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton

J91 J3.4 MESOANALYSIS AND MODELING OF THE FORCING FOR MESOCONVECTIVE SYSTEMS IN THE

PALM SUNDAY TORNADO OUTBREAK. Steven E. Koch, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

J95 J3.5 NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF MESOSCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN ARIZONA. Louis M. Farfan,Univ. of Arizona, Tuscon, AZ; and D. R. Bright and J. A. Zehnder

J99 J3.6 THE EFFECT OF SURFACE PROCESSES ON FRONTS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION

SYSTEMS: RESULTS OF HIGH RESOLUTION ETA SIMULATIONS. William A. Gallus, Jr., Iowa

State Univ., Ames, IA; and T. Li, R. W. Arritt, and M. Segal

JOINT SESSION J4: QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION (Joint with 12th Conference on Numerical Weather

Prediction)

J103 J4.1 VERIFICATION OF RUC-2 AND ETA MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS. Barry E. Schwartz,

NOAA/FSL, Boulder CO; and S. G. Benjamin

J106 J4.2 COMPARISON OF QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS BY THE 48- AND BY THE 29-KM

ETA MODEL: AN UPDATE AND POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS. Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

and UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD

J108 J4.3 A COMPARISON OF TWO CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES IN NCEP'S MESOETA

MODEL AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING. John S.

Kain, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud, M. E. Baldwin, and G. S. Manikin

J111 J4.4 EVALUATION OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE NCEP'S 10 KM MESOSCALE ETA

MODEL. Brett E. McDonald, NOAA and Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel

J115 J4.5 AUTOMATED OBJECTIVE SYNOPTIC TYPING TO CHARACTERIZE ERRORS IN NWP MODEL

QPFS. Robert R. Dahni, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and E. E. Ebert

J119 J4.6 ROUTINE VERIFICATION OF NWP QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR WEATHER

SYSTEMS. Elizabeth E. Ebert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and J. L McBride

J123 J4.7 FORECAST PERFORMANCE OF A PROGNOSTIC TURBULENCE FORMULATION IMPLEMENTED

IN THE MAPS/RUC MODEL Adrian Marroquin, NOAA/FSL, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, J. M.

Brown, and S. G. Benjamin

J126 J4.8 DIAGNOSING PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.

Will H. Hand, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., UK; and C. E. Pierce

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conference analysis and forecasting - gbv

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