Download - Forecasting Analysis Guide
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POM-QM QFORECASTING
Prepared by: Hanife DemiralpPrepared by: Hanife DemiralpSource: POM-QM for Windows
V i 3Version 3
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FORECASTINGFORECASTINGzTime Series:
Suppose that data is given in the following table and forecast the demand for the week of February 14.
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We are using (n=2) 2 k iweek moving average
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Absolute Percentage gError = |Error| \ Demand
After 2 week (n=2) we have forecast in Error is =we have forecast in third week. Demand - Forecast
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Example 2: Weighted Moving Average
Forecast for week 7 is (0.6*120) + (0 4*110)=116(0.4 110) 116
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Forecast the demand for the week February 1414
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Example 3: Exponential Smoothing
Value for smoothing constant, alpha, is 0.5
You can enter any b i thi lnumber in this column
for forecast. If you enter no number, starting forecast isstarting forecast is taken as starting demand.
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Forecast the demandForecast the demand for the week of February 14
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Example 4: Exponential thi ith t dsmoothing with trend
If beta is 0, single gexponential smoothing is performed. If beta is positive exponential smoothing with trend is performed
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Forecast values Error is =Forecast values Error is Demand Adjusted Forecast
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Example 5: Trend Analysis
Line that fits the data best is: y=104.33 + 1.857*x