For the 52 weeks ended 29 December 2018

2

• Total sales up 7.2% to £1,029.3m

• Company-managed shop like-for-like sales* up 2.9%

• Operating profit excluding property profits** and exceptional items*** up 9.1% to £89.1m

• Ordinary dividend per share up 10.5% to 35.7p

• Strong cash generation supporting investment programme and shareholder returns‒ expect to declare special dividend with interim results

• Very strong start to 2019‒ company-managed shop like-for-like sales up 9.6% in first seven weeks

* like-for-like sales in Company-managed shops (excluding franchises) with a calendar year’s trading history** freehold property disposal gains of £0.7m in 2018 (2017:£0.5m)*** exceptional pre-tax charge of £7.2m in 2018 (2017: £9.9m charge)

3

Richard Hutton

4

2018£m

2017£m

Sales 1,029.3 960.0 +7.2%

Operating profit before property & exceptional items

89.1 81.7 +9.1%

Property disposal gains 0.7 0.5

EBIT before exceptionals 89.8 82.2 +9.2%

Finance expense (0.0) (0.4)

Net exceptional charge* (7.2) (9.9)

Profit before taxation 82.6 71.9

* Exceptional items relate mainly to major supply chain investment and restructuring programme, and provision for the one-off costs of Guaranteed Minimum Pension equalisation.

5

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Weeks1-7 '19

H2 4.2%H1 1.5%

6

2018 2017Sales £1,029m £960m

Gross margin 63.7 % 63.7 %

Distribution & selling costs (49.9)% (49.6)%

Admin expenses (5.1)% (5.5)%

EBIT (before exceptionals) £89.8m £82.2m

EBIT margin 8.7% 8.6%

• Steady gross margin as cost pressures mitigated/recovered

• Distribution costs rising as new supply strategy implemented

• Admin expenses reflect operational gearing and cost control

7

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2017* Cost inflation LFL growth** Cost savings Estate growth Other 2018*

£82.2m

£89.8m

* Excluding exceptional items in both years** Like-for-like growth in company-managed shop, franchised shop and wholesale sales

£m

8

2018£m

2017£m

Supply chain restructuring:

Costs of structural change 5.9 10.5

Related property disposal gain - (0.4)

5.9 10.1Other:

GMP* equalisation 1.7 -Settlement of prior year costs (0.4) (0.2)

Net exceptional charge 7.2 9.9

* “Guaranteed Minimum Pension” - expected one-off impact of gender equalisation of guaranteed minimum pensions ("GMPs") for the Company’s legacy defined benefit pension scheme. A UK High Court ruling in October 2018 requires equalisation between men and women for the effect of unequal GMPs accrued between 1990 and 1997

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£m 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total

Cash change costs 4.5 9.2 5.2 3.9 2.0 24.8Non-cash (asset-related) charges 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 4.5Exceptional P&L charge 6.4 10.5 5.9 4.3 2.2 29.3

Phasing of expected cash flow 3.8 1.9 9.0 7.4 2.7 24.8

Latest expected phasing of cash and non-cash exceptional charges in respect of investment programme to reshape supply chain operations:

Expected charge through to 2020 remains largely in line with previous guidance

Benefits - £3m of the ultimate £7m net margin benefit delivered as at 2018- no margin benefit in 2019, further £4m annual benefit by 2021

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• c.3% ingredient inflation in 2018, weighted to H1

• Substantial energy cost increases, H2 particularly

• 6 months forward covered on food inputs and energy

• Physical stock positions taken on key imports (not possible for fresh produce)

• Expect 2-3% overall food input inflation in 2019

40%

9%

29%

4%6% 12%

People costs Shop occupancyFood & packaging Energy/fuelDepreciation Other

• 3.6% overall wage & salary inflation in 2018, plus £2m additional pensions

• Expect 4.1% in 2019, plus £3.3m additional for pensions auto enrolment increase

• Good rent reductions in traditional locations at lease renewal

• Generally taking on larger new shops – average new rent in 2018 £40k vs estate average £33k

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2018 2017

Tax charge*- expect 20.75% charge for 2019, continuing thereafter at c.1.75%

above headline rate

20.2% 20.7%

Underlying diluted earnings per share* 70.3p 63.5p +10.7%

Underlying basic earnings per share* 71.1p 64.5p +10.3%

Full year ordinary dividend per share 35.7p 32.3p +10.5%

* Includes property disposal gains but excludes exceptional items impact

• Interim ordinary dividend set at 1/3 of previous year’s total ordinary dividend• Full year dividend 2x covered by underlying earnings• Special dividends if material surplus cash

12

£m 2019Plan

2018Actual

2017Actual

New shops and relocations (fitting & equipment) 20.0 19.4 18.1Shop fitting – refurbishment 4.0 5.9 8.8Shop equipment (additional and replacement) 13.0 7.8 13.9Supply chain 46.0 32.9 23.4I.T. 6.0 6.8 4.4Other 1.0 0.2 1.8

Total capital expenditure c.£90.0 £73.0 £70.4

Shop numbersNumber of gross new shops @ c.£220k*(incl. relocations, excl. franchises)

c.90 87 86

Number of shop refits @ c.£65k^

* Shop fitting and equipment cost^ Shop fitting cost only

c.55 89 132

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2016 2017 2018 2019 plan 2020 plan 2021 plan 2022 plan

Retail IT & other Supply chain

£m

New company-managed shops 88 86 87 c.90 c.95 c.95 c.95

Company-managed refits 207 132 89 c.55 c.80 c.160 c.180

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£’000 per shop (annual) Company-managed

Franchise

Average shop income in 2018 568 211

Shop-level cash contribution 113 42

Allocation of support costs (29) (16)

Shop contribution net of support costs 84 26

Shop capital investment 200 -

Allocation of supply chain capital employed 80 80

Working capital impact per shop* (54) 9

Total capital employed per shop 226 89

Average cash return 37% 29%

* Company-managed shops generate a working capital inflow, whereas income from franchised stores is received on credit terms15

• £136.2m net cash inflow from operating activities (2017: £116.9m)

• Capital expenditure, dividends and exceptional costs all funded from internally-generated cash flow

• £88.2m net cash at year end (2017: £54.5m), reflects strength of performance, some short-term changes to working capital and the phasing of capex

• Looking forward, target = net cash position of c.£40m at year end

• Strong cash position sensible given current political and economic uncertainties. Additional stocks of key ingredients and equipment currently being held

• Keeping plans under active review, currently expect to declare special dividend at the time of our interim results (July 2019)

16

• Purely an accounting change, no impact on cash flows or how we manage the business

• Balance sheet asset and corresponding liability have been created for relevant leases

• Income statement rent costs being replaced by depreciation on the asset and interest on the reducing liability

• H1 2019 will be the first accounting period to be reported under IFRS16, no restatement of prior periods

• £270m of assets and liabilities added to balance sheet at start of 2019

• 2019 net profit expected to decrease by £4.2m as rental charge is replaced by depreciation and interest charges

• No cash impact

17

Roger Whiteside OBE

18

19

• Breakfast-on-the-go continues to grow strongly

• Hot drinks - reputation for quality, value and service continues to build

• Options for customers widening -adding gluten-free and vegan products alongside Balanced Choice range

• Beginning hot food cabinet roll out

20

• “The Greggs Way” best practice programme releasing more time to serve customers

• Beginning roll out of ‘click and collect’ and home delivery

• Marketing driving customer reappraisal

21

* Source: YouGov BrandIndex** Source: Greggs research &

Greggs Rewards data

• Launch built on progressive increase in advertising awareness* throughout 2018

• Customer insight** suggests 1 in 8 vegan sausage roll buyers are new customers

• Prompting customer reappraisal of the brand and frequency of visits

• Resulting ad awareness* ata seven-year high

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• “The Greggs Way” best practice programme releasing more time to serve customers

• Beginning roll out of ‘click and collect’ and home delivery

• Marketing driving customer reappraisal

• 99 net openings in 2018, estate now 1,953 (inc. 262 franchised)

• Number of high-profile transport hub openings

• 37% of estate now in travel, leisure and work-centred catchments

• Strong pipeline, expect to add at least 100 net new shops in 2019 (c.50 franchised)

• Quality of estate improving

23

• Openings focused on travel, leisure and work-centred catchments (offer higher average sales, margins & ROC)

• Closures consolidate presence in traditional high streets

• Franchise model offers reach into closed catchments

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 (1,671 shops) 2018 (1,953 shops) Future? (2,500 shops)

Franchise (mainly travel)

Work/travel

High street

24

• Investing for shop growth by increasing logistics capacity to c.2,500 shops & consolidating manufacturing operations

• Significant progress commissioning new manufacturing platforms at Newcastle, Manchester and Leeds sites in 2018

• Work commencing to build new southern distribution centre (DC) at Amesbury, Wiltshire (opening late 2019)

• Plans for 2020/21 include conversion of Birmingham site to dedicated DC and construction of automated frozen distribution facility in North East.

25

• Investment programme to modernise processes and IT systems nearing completion

• 2018 progress included processes for managing product ranging & pricing, plus HR & estate management SAP modules

• 2019 priorities are payroll replacement and further integration of logistics and manufacturing

• Now turning our attention to development of digital capabilities

26

We encourage healthier food-on-the-go choices

We care about where our products come from

We share our success with the community around us

We aim to use energy efficiently and minimise waste

We are committed to creating a great place to work

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– total sales up 14.1% in first 7 weeks of 2019– company-managed shop like-for-like sales up by 9.6%

• Strong sales growth, particularly in January, helped in part by the publicity surrounding the launch of our vegan-friendly sausage roll

• Hope to continue benefiting from this strong momentum during the first half of 2019 before facing stronger comparatives later in the year

• Another significant year for investment in our supply chain, creating capacity and platforms for further growth

• Contingency plans in place for Brexit uncertainty

• Strong financial position enabling investment in further growth, alongside good returns for shareholders

• Currently expect to declare special dividend with interim results

Total sales up

first 7 weeks of 2019

28

Investing for

29

Example: 15 year lease with fixed rentals

Income statement impact – reduces profit at beginning of lease, and increases profit at the end.

Balance sheet impact – asset depreciates evenly over life. Liability decreases as cash rental payments are made, net of interest charge.

• This is an accounting change only. It will not impact cash flows or how we manage the business

• A balance sheet asset and corresponding liability will be created for relevant leases

• In the income statement rent costs will be replaced by:‒ straight-line depreciation over the lease term;

and interest which reduces over the lease term

• The modified approach to transition has been adopted. Initial asset values equal to the present value of the future lease payments

• Results for H1 2019 will be the first to be reported under this basis. Comparatives will not be restated

£'000

TimeDepreciation Interest Cash rental

£'000

Time

Lease liability Right of use asset

30

• IFRS 16 primarily impacts c.1,650 property leases on company-managed shops

• Also impacts other leased assets, for example company cars

• Property leases typically have 10 year terms (15 in Scotland)

• Average 6.5 year unexpired lease term on transition

Key judgements:• Break clauses not assumed to be exercised• Where a lease has expired we assume that

the lease will be renewed on the same terms, unless the shop has been identified for closure or relocation

• A specific discount rate is set at the inception of each lease

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

No.

of l

ease

s

Contractual Lease End Date

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

No.

of l

ease

s

Probable End Date for IFRS 16

31

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Operating leasecommitment

Include periods beyond thebreak date

Include held over leases Impact of discounting Estimated opening IFRS16lease liability

£m

1

1 Discount rate applied to leases on transition will be between 2.25% - 2.78%, depending on remaining lease term.2 Due to modified approach to transition the opening lease liability will be equal to the opening value of the right of use assets.

Liability due in one year

2

32

2019£m

2020£m

2021£m

Income statement

Operating profit 2.6 2.8 3.8

Finance expense (6.8) (7.9) (8.5)

Reduction in profit before tax (4.2) (5.1) (4.7)

Balance sheet

Right of use assets 275 295 305Lease liabilities (current) (55) (60) (60)Lease liabilities (non-current) (225) (245) (260)Reduction in net assets (5) (10) (15)

33