food supply and demand in asia...food supply and demand in asia: challenges and opportunities for...

Food Supply and Demand in Asia: Challenges and Opportunities for Policy and Technology Interventions

Mark W. Rosegrant

Director

Environment and Production Technology Division

International Conference on Asian Food Security (ICAFS 2014) Grand Copthorne Waterfront Hotel Singapore August 21-22, 2014

Outline

Drivers of agricultural growth and food security

Scenario modeling methodology

Baseline projections of supply, demand and food security

Alternative technology scenarios

Conclusions and policy implications

Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security

Demand and Supply Drivers

Demand drivers – Population growth: 9 billion

people in 2050 – Urbanization

- World

2008 = 50% urban;

2050 = 78%;

- Asia:

2008 = 44%

2050 = 64%

– Income growth – Biofuels and bioenergy – GHG mitigation and carbon

sequestration

Supply drivers – Water and land scarcity – Climate change – Investment in

agricultural research – Science and technology

policy

Scenario Modeling Methodology

The IMPACT3 Modeling Suite Linked system of hydrological, water use, crop simulation, and partial equilibrium economic models

IMPACT

IMPACT Global Hydrological Model

IMPACT Water Simulation Model

DSSAT Crop Models

Climate Forcing

Effective P Potential ET

IRW

Irrigation Water Demand & Supply

Crop Management

WATER STRESS

Pop & GDP growth

Area & yield growth

Food Projections

• Crop area / livestock numbers, yields, and production

• Agricultural commodity demand

• Agricultural commodity trade and prices

• Mal-nourishment

Water Projections

• Water demand and supply for domestic, industrial, livestock and irrigation users

• Water supply reliability

DSSAT Crop Models

Simulate plant growth and crop yield by variety day-by-day, in response to

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Soil characteristics

• Applied nitrogen

• CO2 fertilization

DSSAT-based simulations at crop-specific locations (using local climate, soil and topographical attributes)

Baseline Projections of Supply, Demand and Food Security

Annual Average Growth of GDP per capita and Population between 2010 and 2050 – Baseline Projections

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Per

cen

t G

row

th R

ate

per

Yea

r

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Per

cen

t G

row

th R

ate

per

Yea

r

Per Capita GDP

Population

Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model, September 2011 simulations

World Crop Yields Annual Average Growth Rate, Historical and Projected

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Maize Rice Soybeans Wheat

Pe

rce

nt

Gro

wth

Rat

er

pe

r Ye

ar

1970-1990 (FAO) 1990-2010 (FAO) 2010-2050 (IMPACT Baseline)


Asia: Cereal Yield Growth Projected Baseline Annual Average Growth Rate


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

China India Central Asia South East Asia Other East Asia Other SouthAsia

Pe

rce

nt

Gro

wth

Rat

er

pe

r Ye

ar

Asia: Total Cereal Crop Area Baseline Projections


0

20

40

60

80

100

120


Mill

ion

He

ctar

es

2010 2050

Asia: Per Capita Demand - Baseline Projections


020406080

100120140160180200

China India CentralAsia

South EastAsia

Other EastAsia

OtherSouth Asia

Kg

per

Cap

ita

2010 2050

Cereal for Food

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

China India Central Asia South EastAsia

Other EastAsia

Other SouthAsia

Kg

per

Cap

ita

2010 2050

Meat

Asia: Projected Net Trade in Cereals Baseline Projections


-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

China India Central Asia South East Asia Other East Asia Other South Asia

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Ton

s

2010 2050

Change (%) in World Prices, 2010-2050, Baseline Projections


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Rice Wheat Maize Other Grains Soybeans Sorghum

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Cereals

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Beef Pork Lamb PoultryP

erce

nt

Ch

ange

Meat

Asia: Projected Net Trade in Meat Baseline Projections


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

China India Central Asia South East Asia Other East Asia Other South Asia

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Ton

s

2010 2050

Asia: Population at the Risk of Hunger Baseline Projections


0

50

100

150

200

250


Mill

ion

s

2010 2050

Alternative Food and Water Scenarios to 2050—Specific Technology Scenarios

Potential Impact of Agricultural Technology Adoption on Global Food Security

Impacts of agricultural technologies on farm productivity, prices, hunger, and trade flows were site-specifically estimated using DSSAT biophysical model linked with IMPACT global partial equilibrium agriculture sector model.

Rosegrant, M.W., J. Koo, N. Cenacchi, C. Ringler, R. Robertson, M. Fisher, C. Cox, K. Garrett, N.D. Perez, and P. Sabbagh. 2014. Food security in a world of natural resource scarcity: The role of agricultural technologies. IFPRI, Washington, D.C.

http://www.ifpri.org/publication/food-security-world-natural-resource-scarcity












Technology Assessment Scope

Global & Regional

Eleven technologies

Three Crops

• Wheat

• Rice

• Maize

No-Tillage

Integrated Soil Fertility Management

Organic Agriculture

Precision Agriculture

Crop Protection

Drip Irrigation

Sprinkler Irrigation

Water Harvesting

Drought Tolerance

Heat Tolerance

Nitrogen Use Efficiency

Crop model (DSSAT) linked with Global Partial Equilibrium Agriculture Sector Model (IMPACT)

DSSAT

Technology strategy (combination of

different practices)

Corresponding geographically

differentiated yield effects

IMPACT

Food demand and supply

Effects on world food prices and trade

Food security and malnutrition

Global DSSAT Results Yield Change (%) – Maize, Rice, & Wheat, 2050 vs. Baseline

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014

Regional DSSAT Results, Maize: NUE, ISFM, and No-till, 2050 vs. Baseline


Regional DSSAT results, Maize: Drought Tolerance, Heat Tolerance and Crop Protection (disease), 2050, compared to baseline


Environmental Impacts: Change in Site-specific Water Use – Irrigated Maize, Wheat


Prominent impacts of

Improved Irrigation Technologies

Increased water savings (less water used)

Increased water productivity (more biomass produced per unit water input)

(Compared to conventional furrow irrigation)

28% less water applied

22% more water productivity

IMPACT Economic Results

Adoption Pathway Ceilings (%)

Technology Ceiling

Drought tolerance 80

Heat tolerance 75

Nitrogen-use efficiency 75

No-till 70

Integrated soil fertility management 40

Water harvesting 40

Drip irrigation 40

Sprinkler irrigation 40

Precision agriculture 60

Crop protection-diseases 50

Crop protection-weeds 50

Crop protection-insects 50

Percent Change in Total Production, Developing Countries: Maize, Rice, Wheat, 2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT)


Price Effects of Technologies, 2050, compared to Baseline: Global – Combined Technologies


-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

Maize Rice Wheat

No-Till Drought toleranceHeat Tolerance Nitrogen Use EfficiencyIntegrated Soil Fertility Mgt Precision AgricultureWater Harvesting Irrigation - sprinklerIrrigation - Drip Crop Protection

Food Security Effects of Technology relative to 2050 Baseline


-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger

No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance

Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture

Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation

Crop Protection - insects

Percent Change in Harvested Area, 2050, Compared to Baseline: Global – Combined Technologies


-60.0

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

Maize Rice Wheat

Perc

enta

ge

No-Till Drought tolerance Heat Tolerance

Nitrogen Use Efficiency Integrated Soil Fertility Mgt Precision Agriculture

Water Harvesting Irrigation - sprinkler Irrigation - Drip

Crop Protection

Conclusions and Policy Implications

Building Sustainable Productivity Growth and Resilient Agricultural and Food Systems

1. Accelerate investments in agricultural R&D for productivity growth

2. Promote complementary policies and investments

3. Reform economic policies

1. Accelerate Investments in Agricultural R&D for smallholder productivity

Invest in technologies for Crop and livestock breeding

• High-yielding varieties • Biotic- and abiotic-stress resistant

varieties

Modernize breeding programs in developing countries through provision of genomics, high throughput gene-sequencing, bio-informatics and computer

GMOs where genetic variation does not exist in the crop • Nitrogen use efficiency • Drought, heat and salinity tolerance • Insect and disease resistance

Global public spending on agric. R&D, 2008 (%)

Source: ASTI 2012

2. Promote Complementary Policies and Investments

Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation

Increase access to high-value supply chains and markets e.g. fruits, vegetables, and milk

Regulatory reform: Reduce hurdles to approval and release of new cultivars and technologies

• Remove impediments (e.g. restrictive “notified” crop lists, excessive testing and certification requirements, foreign investment barriers, ad hoc biosafety decision-making)

Extension of farming systems: minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, precision agriculture

3. Reform Economic Policies

Support open trading regimes to share climate risk Use market-based approaches to manage water and

environmental services combined with secure property rights

Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and encourage water use beyond economically appropriate levels • Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies

• Savings invested in activities that boost farm output and income

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