© OECD/IEA 2011 

Post Fukushima Energy Strategy : Energy Security and Sustainability in Asia

2012/10/31  Tokyo 

Sasagawa Peace Foundation and W. Wilson Center

Nobuo TANAKAFormer Executive Director of the IEAGlobal Associate of Energy Security and Sustainability, IEEJ

Energy Demand grows in Asia. Energy Security is the issue for Asian countries.

Growth in primary energy demand 

Global energy demand increases by one‐third from 2010 to 2035, with China, India and other Asia accounting for two thirds  of the growth 

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Mtoe

China

India

Other developing Asia

Russia

Middle East

Rest of world

OECD

IEA WEO 2011

2

New Policies Scenario assumes Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important.

World primary energy demand

Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two‐thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010‐2035

Additional to 2035

2010

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear

Mtoe

IEA WEO 2011

3

Net imports of oil 

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4

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14

European Union

United States

Japan China India ASEAN

Mb/

d

2000

2010

2035

Oil supply security is particularly  the issue for Asia Oil supply security is particularly  the issue for Asia in the 21in the 21stst Century.Century.

US oil imports drop due to rising domestic output & improved transport efficiency:

North American Energy Independence is coming! ( WEO 2012 )

IEA WEO 2011

4

Iran Crisis and the Hormuz Strait

5

17 mbd of petroleum (20% of global demand )

82 million tons of LNG pa (30% of global demand)

85% of Japanese oil import

20% of Japanese LNG import

85% of Japanese oil import20% of Japanese LNG importBut if no nuclear reactors are running,,,,,,?

5

1974 disruption was 4.3mbd. 1979 was 5.6mbd. Hormuz blockage is１３ mbd.

IEA Petroleum Strategic Stock can relieve 2mbd disruption for 24 months.

6

Strategic Petroleum Reserve:  Does the Strategic Petroleum Reserve:  Does the current IEA system continue to work?current IEA system continue to work?

Growing share of non‐OECD oil demand results in declining global demand cover from IEA oil stocks

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35 

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

days of world oil de

mand cover

% sh

are of w

orld oil de

mand

IEA 90 days of stockholding, share of world demand with Chinawith Indiawith ASEANShare of non‐OECD  in global oil demand

IEA stockholding cover of global oil demand

Compounding Crisis may hit Japan

• Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz– Oil Price may double to $160 / barrel– Japan’s current account surplus ( 9 trillion yen in 2011 ) 

may turn to deficit of 6 trillion yen.– Without further restarting of nuclear power plants, 

deficits may reach 12 trillion yen.• Confidence on Japan’s public finance may be lost.

– Current Account surplus is the basis for confidence– Persisting Deficit may lead to capital flight from Japan– Power crisis enhances flight of manufacturing industries

• Loss of Confidence in JGB and Yen.

8

The Golden Age for Natural Gas ?The Golden Age for Natural Gas ?Shale Gas Revolution.Shale Gas Revolution.

Largest natural gas producers in 2035

Unconventional natural gas supplies 40% of the 1.7 tcm increase in global supply,but best practices are essential to successfully address environmental challenges

0 200 400 600 800 1 000

Norway

India

Australia

Algeria

Canada

Qatar

Iran

China

United States

Russia

bcm

Conventional

Unconventional

IEA WEO 2011

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Figure 2.18 Natural gas demand and the share of imports by region in theNew Policies Scenario, 2009 and 2035

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Imports

Domes cproduc on

2009 2035 2009 2035 2009 2035 2009 20352009 2035 2009 2035

United States Japan European Union Other AsiaChina India

bcm

Note: Other Asia had net natural gas exports of 56 bcm in 2009.

The Golden Age for Natural Gas?Asian Demand Increase is the game changer.

China’s demand is 97 BCM in 2009, same as Germany,In 2035 it grows to 502 BCM same as Europe as a whole in 2009

IEA WEO 2011

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Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies: Assessing the Drivers and Impacts 11

RussiaRussia’’s focus will move to the East s focus will move to the East 

Russian revenue from fossil fuel exports

An increasing share of Russian exports go eastwards to Asia,providing Russia with diversity of markets and revenues

2010$255 billion

61%16%

21%

2035$420 billion

48%

EuropeanUnion

17%Other

20%China

15%

OtherEurope

EuropeanUnionOther

Europe

China2%

Other

IEA WEO 2011

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Figure 8.15 Major gas fields and supply infrastructure in Russia

Harbin

Northern Ligh ts

Nord Stream

ExporttoEurope

Moscow

Yamburg

Medvezhye

Daqing

Shtokman

Urengoy

MongoliaSyria NorthKorea

China

Irkutsk

Japan

Slov. Rep.

Cz.Rep.

Poland

Germany

SwedenDen.

R U S S I A SakhalinIsland

Komsomolsk

Khabarovsk

Bovanenkovo

SouthTambei

Neth.

Chayandin

ZapolyarnoeS. Russkoe

Krasnoyarsk

Yakutsk

Export toFinland

St. Petersburg

Estonia

Norway

Finland

Latvia

SouthStream

China

Novosibirsk Kemerovo

Tomsk

Surgut

Kazakhstan

U b ki

Tyumen

Orenburg

Astrakhan

Khvalynskoe

TsentralnoeTurkey

Georgia

Azer.Arm.

Volgograd

Ukhta

Vladivostok

Murmansk

YamalPeninsula

Kovykta

ExporttoEurope

RomaniaMol.

Hungary Sakhalin

Other offshore Arctic

Other ArcticoffshoreBarents Sea

Eastern Siberia

Western Siberia

Volga/Urals

TimanPechora

Caspian

Ukraine

Lithuania

Belarus

Selected gas field

Existing gas pipeline

Pipeline planned/under const.

Existing LNG export terminal

Planned LNG export terminal

This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

SeaofOkhotsk

LaptevSea

EastSiberianSea

ChukchiSea

BeringSea

CaspianSea

BlackSea

BalticSea

KaraSeaBarentsSea

Russian Natural Gas Pipelines IEA WEO 2011

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International Gas PricesHow can we reduce Asian Premium?

 

0

5

10

15

20

25USD

/MBtu

Henry Hub NBP German border price Japan LNG Brent Asian coal marker

IEA Mid Term Gas Market Review 201214

Post Fukushima Low Nuclear Case

Figure 12.3 Nuclear power capacity in the Low Nuclear Case

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

GW

Non‐OECD

OECD

Low Nuclear Case

New Policies Scenario

Non‐OECD

OECD

If no new nuclear plants be built in OECD countries,Nuclear power will decline to 7% of total power generation in 2035.

IEA WEO 2011

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• Power generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenarioand Low Nuclear Case

• The biggest chunk of the lost nuclear generation is replaced by power generation from gas and  coal,  leading to a 6% or 0.9 GT increase in CO2 emissions in the power sector

Less nuclear means  more of Less nuclear means  more of everything else + CO2 everything else + CO2 

0

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4 000

6 000

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10 000

12 000

14 000

Nuclear Coal Gas Renewables

TWh 2009

2035:New Policies Scenario

2035:Low Nuclear Case

IEA WEO 2011

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Figure 12.5 Global primary coal and gas demand and annual spendingon imports in the Low Nuclear Case

Spending on coalimports

Spending on gasimports

0

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300

450

600

750

Billio

ndo

llars(2010) 2009

2035:New PoliciesScenario

2035:Low NuclearCase

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4 000

5 000

Coaldemand

Gasdemand

Mtoe

Note: Calculated as the value of net imports at prevailing average international prices.

Additional $90 billion is needed to import gas and coal.

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Germany may need much more Gas to phase Germany may need much more Gas to phase out Nuclear by 2022out Nuclear by 2022

Germany needs to import 16 BCM of gas to achieve  electricity mix with 10% demand reduction, no nuclear, 35% renewables and CO2 at the target level 

twh

18

Power Grid Connection in Europe

Physical energy flows between European countries, 2008 (GWh)

Source: ENTSO-E

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• Mobilize all possible resources to phase out Nuclear Power Generation during 2030s.– Strict 40 years life of reactors. Restart reactors with 

approval by the new NRC.  No new construction. • Green Energy Revolution

– 10% Power saving  and 19% energy efficiency by 2030.– Triple  Renewables by 2030. （ x8 excluding hydro）

– R&D for new generation vehicles, Hydrogen system, CCS.• Expand LNG gas power, Combined Heat & Power.• Reform of power market.• Flexible review of the decision.

Innovative Energy & Environment StrategyDecision by the Energy & Environment Council , GOJSeptember 14th, 2012

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Power grid in Japan

Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, The Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Electric Power System Council of Japan, The International Energy Agency 

Tokyo

Hokkaido

Tohoku

HokurikuKansaiChugoku

Kyushu29GW Shikoku

12GW

Chubu 40GW

Okinawa2GW

Hydro

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Coal

OtherPower utility company

Generating company

In‐house generation

--- 50 hz

60 hz <-------

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Snapshot of present penetration potentialsNot only Feed‐in‐tariffs but Grid integration !

“Harnessing Variable Renewables” by IEA

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Lessons of the Fukushima• Lessons to be Shared

– Think about the unthinkable; Tsunami and Station Black Out. Large scale Blackout. Change total mind set for “Safety”.

– Prepare for the severe accidents by defense in depth, common cause failure & compound disasters. 

– Clarify why it happened only to Fukushima Daiichi and NOT to Fukushima Daini, Onagawa nor Tokai daini.

• Safety Principles– Fukushima accident was caused by human error and should have been avoided. (Mr. 

Hatamura, Parliament Investigation Commission report )– International Cooperation : A nuclear accident anywhere is an accident everywhere.– Independent Regulatory authority ; Transparency and Trust, “Back Fitting” of 

regulation

• Secured supply of Electricity– Power station location– Strengthened interconnection of grid lines

• Once disaster has happened, Recovery from disaster is at least as important as preparing for it.

– FEMA like organization and training of the nuclear emergency staff including the self defense force ; integration of safety and security.

– New Technology.  New type of Reactors. 23

450 ppm Scenmario : what we need and where .Figure 6.2 World energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario2

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25

30

35

40

45

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035

Gt

15 Gt

7 Gt71%

65%

33%

28%OECD

Non‐OECD Current PoliciesScenario

450 Scenario

New PoliciesScenario

Note: There is also someabatement of inter‐regional (bunker) emissionswhich, at less than2%of thedifferencebetweenscenarios, is not visible in the 2035 shares.

Figure 6.4 World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario

Gt

2020 2035

Efficiency

Renewables

Biofuels

Nuclear

72%

17%

2%

5%

44%

21%

4%

9%

3% 22%

Abatement

Total (Gt CO2)

CCS

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

New Policies Scenario

450 Scenario2.5 14.8

IEA WEO 2011

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Sustainability  helps Energy Security

Figure 6.11 Oil-import bills in selected regions by scenario

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300

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500

600

Japan United States India European Union China

Billio

ndo

llars(2010) 2010

2035: New PoliciesScenario

2035: 450 Scenario

IEA WEO 2011

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What is Energy Security in the 21st Century?

26

Diversity means Energy Security .Diversity means Energy Security .””Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone.Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone.”” ( Churchill )( Churchill )

Nuclear is an important option for countries with limited indigenous energy resources .

Self sufficiency =inland production / tpes(2010 estimates)

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Energy Self -Sufficiency rates by fuels in 2010

IEA

North American Gas Infrastructure

Mid-Term Oil & Gas Market 2010, IEA

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ロシア以外からのパイプライン 

ＬＮＧ基地（建設中・計画中） 

ＬＮＧ基地（2000年以降運開） 

ＬＮＧ基地（1999年までに運開） 

ロシアからのパイプライン 

現在 

Gas Infra in Europe: New Pipelines and LNG ports.

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Gas Pipeline system in Japan is very weak. IEA Japan review 2008

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ASEAN is working on Gas Pipeline System.ASEAN is working on Gas Pipeline System.

Figure 15.16 The Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP)

0 500Km

Bontang

Tangguh

West Java

LumutLubuan

Bintulu MLNG

Arun

East Java Masela

Jurong Isl.

MarivelesLNG(Baatan)

EAST TIMOR

Kalimantan Senipah

Surabaya

Plaju

Sungiasalak

Dumai

Medan

Krabi

Khanom

Pasuruan

Natuna

Palawan

Ho Chi Minh

Mindanao

Luzon

Dili

Sumatra

Java

BaliLombok

Sumbawa Flores

Sulawesi SeramPapua

Map Ta Phut

M A L A Y S I A

SINGAPORE

CAMBODIA

LAOSMYANMAR

Phnom Penh

Vientiane

Yangon

Bandar SeriBegawan

Manila

Kuala Lumpur

I N D O N E S I A

Jakarta

Hanoi

CHINAINDIA

Bangkok VIETNAM

PHILIPPINES

T H A I L A N D

BRUNEI

Existing gas pipeline

Planned LNG regasification terminal

Planned LNG liquifaction plant

Planned or under construction gas pipeline

Gas production area

LNG liquifaction plant

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.

Source: ASCOPE Secretariat

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New concepts for North East Asia Gas & Pipeline Infrastructure

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ASEAN is working on Power Grid Interconnections.

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Connecting MENA and Europe: " Desertec" as  visionary “Energy for Peace"

Source: DESRETEC Foundation34

BhutanBhutan

Gobi DesertGobi Desert

ShanghaiShanghai

TaipeiTaipei

DelhiDelhi

MumbaiMumbai

SingaporeSingapore

VladivostokVladivostok

ChengduChengdu

BeijingBeijing SeoulSeoul

ManilaManila

DaccaDacca

AsiaSuper Grid

Total 36,000km

Phase 3

BangkokBangkok

Hong KongHong Kong

Kuala LumpurKuala Lumpur

TokyoTokyo

Demand Leveling

(Time Zone & Climate Difference)

Stable Supply

(through regional interdependence)

Fair Electricity Price

Presentation by Mr. Masayoshi SON

Energy for Peace in Asia. A New Asian Vision?

35

Technology helps!   Hydrogen Community with MCH• Large volume Hydrogen transportation & storage technology will be essential to build ‘Hydrogen Community’.

• ‘Hydrogen Community’ realizes Low Emission Carbon Recycling Society, with empowered resistance against disasters.

• New path toward the Hydrogen Society will enhance innovation and create New Industries.

MCHSolar

Wind

・Pure H2/ Mixed Fuel・Fuel Cell

City Gas

MCH

Steel

Petroleum

Tanker / Ferry

Hydrogen / H2‐CNGFueling Station

・FCV・H2‐CNG Engine

Residential Sector

Logistics Sector

Office & Commercial Sector

Hydrogen Supply(Dehydrogenation)

House / Condominium

・Feedstock

・H2 Reduction

・Desulfurization・Cracking

・H2 Mixture

・Elec. Stabilizer・Stand‐by for  Emergency

DistributedPower Gen. Distributed

Power Gen.

・CO2 Recycle( CO2 + H2→CO+H2O)

Clean Hydrogen(Hydrocarbon Sources)

DHC・Boiler / Chiller (Pure H2/mixed)

・Cogeneration・Backup Power・Energy Storage

・Fuel Cells・H2 mixed fuel Engine

・Fuel Cell  Ship・Hydrogen mixed fuel Engine

MCH

Car

Bus

Truck

・FCV・H2‐CNG Engine

・FCV・CNG mixed engine

Office & CommercialBuilding

MCH

Hydrogen

MCH

Heat

Electricity

・Heat Recycle

・Heat Recycle

MCH

Strategic Energy Reserve(Large volume)

MCH

MCH

MCH

(Note) MCH : Methylcyclohexane FC :  Fuel Cell FCV : Fuel Cell Vehicle GHP : Gas Heat Pump   DHC : District Heating and Cooling

Train

・Fuel Cell Train・H2 mixed fuel Engine

Renewable Energy (Local)

MCH

Green Hydrogen(Renewable Sources)

Renewable Energy (Global)

・FC forklift・H2mixed Fuel GHP

Logistics ・FC /EnginesPort Facility

ChemicalPower Gen.

Industrial Sector

Power Storage

MCH

MCH

MCH

MCH

MCH

Energy Sector

・Petro/Chem. By‐product・SRM with EOR/CCS・Gasification

36

Technology helps. Case of Smart Grid

Source: Cities, Towns and Renewable Energy, IEA (2009)

“ Yes in My Front Yard ”

37

Integral Fast Reactor and Pyroprocessing

IFR has features as Inexhaustible Energy Supply ,Inherent Passive Safety ,Long-term Waste Management Solution , Proliferation-Resistance , Economic Fuel Cycle Closure.

Dr. YOON IL CHANGArgonne National Laboratory

38

$39 Trillion and more Investment is needed for energy Infrastructure.   

Figure 2.21 Cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure byregion in the New Policies Scenario, 2011-2035

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

OECD Americas

China

OECD Europe

Africa

La n America

Other Asia

Russia

Middle East

India

OECD Asia Oceania

Other E. Europe/Eurasia

Trillion dollars (2010)

Power

Oil

Gas

Coal

Biofuels

IEA WEO 2011

39

One cannot enhance energy security by risking someone else‘s.

-Lesson of the Quake and Tsunami : Think about the unthinkable.-Energy Security for the 21st Century must be Comprehensive Electricity Supply Security under sustainability constraints.-EU Model of Collective Energy Security be applied to the growing Asia. Develop Regional Power Grid interconnection & Gas Pipelines including Russia.-Innovation in Power supply: Efficiency, Decentralized Renewables, EVs, Smart Grids, Storage, etc. -Develop gas resources and infrastructure. Diversify supply and demand. Russia remains as a key player.-For coal to remain the backbone of power supply, CCS readiness & highly efficient power plants are needed.-Nuclear Power will continue to play a major role in the world. Japan’s role after Fukushima is to share the lessons learned for safer Nuclear Power deployment in Asia and elsewhere. Develop safer and more proliferation-free reactor models, e.g. Integral Fast Reactor as the 4G or Modular. -New technologies help; hydrogen economy, Methane-hydrate , Super-conductivity grid.

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