fmsppt-130316095208-phpapp02...
TRANSCRIPT
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FUNDAMENTAL
ANALYSIS
By
Anand Shankar(49)
Saurabh suman (35)Shaurya punit (38)
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WHAT IS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS?
Fundamental analysis is a technique that
attempts to determine a securitys value by
focusing on underlying factors that affect a
company's actual business and its future
prospects.
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WHY FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Fundamental analysis answers the following
question
Is the companys revenue growing?
Is it actually making a profit?
Is it in a position strong-enough to outrun its
competitors in the future? Is it able to repay its debts?
Is management trying to "cook the books"?
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
The fundamental school of thought appraises
the intrinsic value of shares through
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ECONOMY ANALYSIS
The first step to this type of analysis includeslooking at the macroeconomic situation.
GDP/growth rate
Inflation
Interest rates
Exchange rates
Agricultural production/monsoon
FDI/FII
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE STOCK MARKET
INDICATOR FAVOURABLE IMPACT UNFAVOURABLE
IMAPACT
GDP/GROWTH RATE HIGH GROWTH RATE SLOW GROWTH RATE
DOMESTIC SAVINGS RATE HIGH LOW
INTEREST RATES LOW HIGH
TAX RATES LOW HIGH
INFLATION LOW HIGH
IIP/INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION HIGH LOW
BALANCE OF TRADE POSITIVE NEGATIVE
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS POSITIVE NEGATIVE
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE STOCK MARKET
INDICATOR FAVOURABLE IMPACT UNFAVOURABLE
IMAPACT
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
POSITION
HIGH LOW
DEFICIT FINANCING/FISCAL
DEFICIT
LOW HIGH
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION HIGH LOW
INFRASTRUCTURAL
FACILITIES
GOOD NOT GOOD
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Industry analysis
Industry analysis is a type of investment research thatbegins by focusing on the status of an industry or anindustrial sector.
Why is this important? Each industry is different, and using one cookie-cutter
approach to analysis is sure to create problems.Imagine, for example, comparing the P/E ratio of a techcompany to that of a utility. Because you are, in effect,comparing apples to oranges, the analysis is next touseless.
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2. Industry Analysis
INDUSTRY ANALYSIS LOOKS AT
a) Past sales and earning performanceb) Labor condition within the industry
c) Attitude of government towards industry
d) Competitive conditione) Stock prices of firm in the industry
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Michael Porters 5 Force
Model
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Threat of New Entrants - The easier it is for new companies toenter the industry, the more cutthroat competition there will be. Factors that canlimit the threat of new entrants are known as barriers to entry. Some examplesinclude:
Existing loyalty to major brands
Incentives for using a particular buyer (such as frequent shopper programs)
High fixed costs Scarcity of resources
High costs of switching companies
Government restrictions or legislation
Power of Suppliers- This is how much pressure suppliers canplace on a business. If one supplier has a large enough impact to affect acompany's margins and volumes, then it holds substantial power. Here are a fewreasons that suppliers might have power:
There are very few suppliers of a particular product
There are no substitutes
Switching to another (competitive) product is very costly
The product is extremely important to buyers - can\'t do without it
The supplying industry has a higher profitability than the buying industry
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Power of Buyers - This is how much pressure customers can place on a business. If onecustomer has a large enough impact to affect a company's margins and volumes, then the customerhold substantial power. Here are a few reasons that customers might have power:
Small number of buyers
Purchases large volumes
Switching to another (competitive) product is simple
The product is not extremely important to buyers; they can do without the product for a period of
time Customers are price sensitive
Availability of Substitutes - What is the likelihood that someone will switch to acompetitive product or service? If the cost of switching is low, then this poses a serious threat. Hereare a few factors that can affect the threat of substitutes:
The main issue is the similarity of substitutes. For example, if the price of coffee rises substantially,a coffee drinker may switch over to a beverage like tea.
If substitutes are similar, it can be viewed in the same light as a new entrant.
Competitive Rivalry - This describes the intensity of competition between existing firmsin an industry. Highly competitive industries generally earn low returns because the cost ofcompetition is high. A highly competitive market might result from:
Many players of about the same size; there is no dominant firm
Little differentiation between competitors products and services
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Semiconductor Industry Threat of New Entrants. setting up a chip fabrication factory requires billions of dollars in investment.
Semiconductor companies are forming alliances to spread out the costs ofmanufacturing. Meanwhile, the appearance and success of "fabless" chip makerssuggests that factory ownership may not last as a barrier to entry.
Power of Suppliers. For the large semiconductor companies, suppliers have little power
many smaller chip makers are becoming increasingly dependent on a handful oflarge foundries.
Power of Buyers. Most of the industry's key segments are dominated by a small number of large
players. This means that buyers have more bargaining power.
Availability of Substitutes. depends on the segment.
Copy-cat suppliers and reverse engg.
Competitive Rivalry. Intense rivalries between individual companies
The result is an industry that continually produces cutting-edge technology whileriding volatile business conditions.
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Valuation of Stock
= +
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The intrinsic value of a share is the present value of all future cashflows
Investment decision:
a) If the market price of a share is currently lower than its intrinsicvalue, such a share would be bought because it is perceived to beunder-priced.
b) A share whose current market price is higher than its intrinsic
value would be considered as overpriced and hence sold.
INTRINSIC VALUE DIVIDENDS CAPITALAPPRECIATION
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Company Analysis-Non
FinancialAspects :History, Promoters and Management
Review Questions
How old is the company?
Who are the promoters?
Is it family managed or professionally managed?
What is the public image and reputation of the company, its promoters and its products?
Aspects :Technology, Facilities and ProductionReview Questions
Does the company use relevant technology?
Is there any foreign collaboration?
Where is the unit located?
Are the production facilities well balanced?
Is the size the right economic size? What are the production trends?
What is the raw material position?
Is the process power- intense?
Are there adequate arrangements for power?
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Aspect:Product range, Marketing, Selling and DistributionReview Question:
What is the companys product range?
Are there any cash cows among the product portfolio?
How distribution-effective is the marketing network?
What is the brand image of the products?
What is the market share enjoyed by the products in the relevant segments?
What are the effects and costs of sales promotion and distribution?
Aspect:Industrial relations, Productivity and PersonnelReview Question:
How important is the labour component?
What is the labour situation in general?
Aspect:EnvironmentReview Question:
Are there any statutory controls on production, price, distribution, raw material, etc?
Is there any major legal constraint?
What are the government policies on the industry (domestic as well as related to imports and
exports of the final products and raw materials)?
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SWOT ANALYSIS
Internal Strengths WeaknessesLatest Technology Loose controls
Lower delivered Cost Untrained labour force
Established products Strained cash flows
Committed manpower Poor product quality
Advantageous location Family funds
Strong finances Poor public image
Well- known brand names
External Opportunities Threats
Growing domestic demand Price WarExpanding export markets Intensive competition
Cheap labour Undependable component
Booming capital markets Suppliers
Low interest rates Infrastructure bottlenecks
Power cuts
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PRICE
YESTERDAYS BLUE CHIPS EMERGING BLUE CHIPS
EVERGREEN STOCK
NON BLUE CHIPS TURN AROUND STOCK
QUALITY
PRICEQUALITY MATRIX
LQ
HP
HQ
HP
LQ
LP
HQ
LP
MQ
MP
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Low Quality, Low - Price (LQLP): The non-blue chipsThese are not quite blue chips. These shares are of low quality and hence are quoted at
low prices. Just ignore them until there is an upswing in their fortunes. Till then,they are duds.
You should not buy something simply because it is cheap. Remember, what appearscheap may ultimately prove very expensive.
High Quality, Low - Price (HQLP): Turnaround stocksThese are high quality stocks but quoted at relatively low prices because the market isyet to recognize their true worth. They are blue chips in the making. You shouldpick them up as soon as you spot them, before their price shoot up to high levels.
It is in these HQLP shares that one can make a real killing! Often, they representcertain special situations like a turn around after a bad period, takeovers, change ofmanagement etc. Relative to their earnings potential, their market price is low. They
have not yet attracted the wide attention of the market. One way to recognize themis that their price/earnings (P/E) ratio i.e. market price divided by earnings per shareis relatively low when compared to the aggregate P/E ratio of the market as a wholeand of that particular industry.
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Low Quality, High - Price (LQHP): Yesterdays blue chipsYou can call these the stocks with the hangover effect. Once they had the
market on a high but they are more or less banking on their past glory now.Once this fact is recognized, the market downgrades such stocks and their
prices tumble. Such scrips should be sold fast. Do not look at such a shareagain until the company returns to the growth track.
Medium Quality, Medium - Price (MQMP): Evergreen superstock
These are steady scrips. They can last for two to three generations fairly intact.Hold on to them. Dont be in a hurry to sell them, not withstandingtemporary ups and downs.
High Quality, High - Price (HQHP): Emerging blue chipsThe current stars are popular and command a high price. As long as their
glamour last, such shares perform well in the market. Hold on to them. Butbe careful, partial booking of profits at high price may be desirable.
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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF A
COMPANY
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Questions
Q1 : Tell 5 competitive forces of Michel
Porters 5 force model.
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What is balance of payment?
A record of all transactions made between
one particular country and all other countries
during a specified period of time. BOP
compares the dollar difference of the amountof exports and imports, including all financial
exports and imports. A negative balance of
payments means that more money is flowingout of the country than coming in, and vice
versa.