fire and climate interactions in the boreal...

Fire and Climate Interactions Fire and Climate Interactions in the Boreal Zonein the Boreal Zone

Amber J. Soja with donations from Nadezda M. Tchebakova, Amber J. Soja with donations from Nadezda M. Tchebakova, Brian Stocks, Susan G. Conard, Anatoly I. Sukhinin, Douglas Brian Stocks, Susan G. Conard, Anatoly I. Sukhinin, Douglas

J. McRae, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., J. McRae, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., PavelPavel YaYa. . GroismanGroisman, , Tatiana V. Loboda, and Ivan A. Csiszar

Photo courtesy of Brian StocksLand Cover Land Use Change, 2007

Why are Russian boreal Why are Russian boreal ecosystems important?ecosystems important?

The largest temperature increases are predicted to occur in northern hemisphere upper latitudes (Cubash et al., 2001).

The greatest temperature increases are currently found in the cold, dry air masses over central Siberia (Balling et al., 1998).

Boreal forests hold the largest reservoir of terrestrial carbon (Apps et al., 1993; Zoltai and Martikainen, 1996; Alexeyev and Birdey, 1998).

Two-thirds of the boreal forest are located in Russia (25% of the worlds forest).

Climate Change Climate Change Realities and Realities and ProjectionsProjections

GCMsGCMs project 1.4 project 1.4 –– 5.85.80 0 C C increase in global mean increase in global mean temperature by 2100 temperature by 2100

Observed increases across Observed increases across westwest--central Canada and central Canada and Siberia over past 40 yearsSiberia over past 40 years

Greatest increases will be at Greatest increases will be at high latitudes, over land and high latitudes, over land and winter/springwinter/spring

Projected increases in extreme Projected increases in extreme weather and extreme fire weather and extreme fire weatherweather

Observations above – summer temperature

Predicted changes 2080-2100

Mean seasonal temperature changes 1965 to 2004 .

Temperatures are increasing, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring, which leads to longer growing seasons, increased potential evapotranspiration and extreme fire weather.

summer

spring

winter

[Groisman et al., 2007; Jones and Moberg, 2003, updated]

Analysis of Inter-model Consistency in Regional WarmingAtmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) are in agreement that warming in Northern Eurasia could be in excess of 40% above the global average (at least 7 of 9 models) (IPCC, 2001).

Boreal forests and fireBoreal forests and fire

Boreal forest communities are particularly responsive to climate change.

(Stocks and Street, 1982; Clark, 1988; Payette and Gagnon, 1985; Flannigan and Harrington, 1988; Sirois, 1992)

Synoptic weather patterns are the major regional factor controlling the

occurrence of fire.(Stocks and Street, 1982; Pastor and Mladenoff, 1992)

Wildfire is an integral component of boreal landscapes.

Dominant driver of ecological processes in boreal ecosystems (Lutz, 1956; Rowe and Scotter, 1973; Van Cleve and Viereck, 1981; MacLean et al., 1983; Bonan and Shugart, 1989).

Wildfire maintains age structure, species composition, and the floristic diversity of boreal forests by resolving the beginning and end of successional processes (Zackrisson, 1977; Van Wagner, 1978; Heinselman, 1981; Antonovski et al., 1992).

In a landscape-scale steady-state system, wildfire acts as a disturbing agent that maintains the current stability, diversity and mosaic structure of boreal ecosystems (Loucks, 1970; Viereck and Schandelmeier, 1980; Romme, 1982; Shugart et al., 1991).

What is expected?What is expected?

Under current climate change scenarios…

Boreal forest fire frequency and area burned are expected to

increase (25 – 50%) (Overpeck et al., 1990; Flannigan and Van Wagner

1990, 1991; Wotton and Flannigan 1993; Stocks et al.1998, 2000; Flannigan et al. 2001).

Increased ignition from lightning (20-40%)

(Fosberg et al. 1990, 1996; Price and Rind 1994)

What is expected?What is expected?Under current climate change scenarios…

Increased fire season length (up to 51 days, average 30 days)

(Streeet 1989; Wotton and Flannigan 1993; Stocks et al. 1998)

Increased fire weather severity (46% average)

(Street 1989; Flannigan and Van Wagner 1991, Stocks et al. 1998)

Fire weather severity is predicted to be greater in Russia than in North America

(Stocks and Lynham 1996)

I. Climate holds the ultimate key to altering boreal ecosystems (temperature and precipitation).

II. Climate has the potential to affect boreal fire regimes by:

(1) altering species composition;

(2) altering fire ignitions from lightening and;

(3) altering weather conditions conducive to fire.

Future Fire Danger LevelsFuture Fire Danger LevelsAll GCM and RCM projections show increase in All GCM and RCM projections show increase in strength and areal extent of extreme fire dangerstrength and areal extent of extreme fire dangerIncrease in fire season lengthIncrease in fire season lengthIncreased weather variability and extremes at Increased weather variability and extremes at regional scaleregional scale

Role of Future Climate ChangeRole of Future Climate Change

Historical Fire Weather GCM: 2X CO2

Courtesy Brian Stocks

Fires across Siberia- Large scale synoptic patterns

- Seasonal patterns

Soja et al., IJRS, 2004

4/01 - 4/11

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Average counts from 1999 and 2000Soja et al., IJRS, 2004

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Seasonal Patterns of Fire in Boreal Siberia

Soja et al., IJRS, 2004

Loboda et al., 2007

Area burned in SiberiaArea burned in Siberia

R2 = 0.1507based on Avialesookrana ground reports

0

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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

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AvialesookranaGround

SukachevSatellite

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ha)

In Siberia, 7 of the last 9 years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more

frequent in both Alaska and Canada.

Area burned in boreal North AmericaArea burned in boreal North America

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1950

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North America R2 = 0.17

Alaska Canada

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Soja et al., 2007

Fire Regimes Vary WidelyFire Regimes Vary Widely

Fires burning in Sakha (Yakutia), August 2002These fires burned from late April through early October

Over 5 M ha burned in Sakha, which accounts for almost half of the Siberian 2002 total carbon emissions, perhaps 10% of the totalglobal carbon emissions from forest and grassland burning(Andreae and Merlet, 2001 Soja et al., JGR 2004).

Extreme fire event that burned in Siberia, Peak in Aerosol Index July 26, 2006.

Large wildfire-inducedaerosol event from

Siberia.

Landsat (30 m resolution) data showing the fire

scars in Evenkia, Siberia.

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Осадки, ммПоказатель ПВ -1

Seasonal changes in the 2006fire hazard index (red line), with rainfall (blue bars) for the Boguchanyweather station .

-- CALIPSO combines an active CALIPSO combines an active lidarlidar instrument with passive instrument with passive infrared and visible imagers to probe the vertical structure andinfrared and visible imagers to probe the vertical structure and

properties of thin clouds and aerosols.properties of thin clouds and aerosols.-- 30 meter vertical resolution, 100 m swath. 30 meter vertical resolution, 100 m swath.

-- Data extends from sea level to 30 km.Data extends from sea level to 30 km.-- Launched on April 28, 2006 with Launched on April 28, 2006 with CloudSatCloudSat. .

http://wwwhttp://www--calipso.larc.nasa.govcalipso.larc.nasa.gov//

What is

CALIPSO?

On July 26, 2006, the Aerosol Index (AI) peaked in Siberia due to an extreme wildfire event, which traveled northwest over the North Pole. During this time, CALIPSO captured the vertical height and structure of the smoke plume.

http://www-calipso.larc.nasa.gov/

About 12:00 to 13:00 pm local timeBegin: 2006/07/26 05:22:09.5520 UTC

End: 2006/07/26 06:14:29.6124

CALIPSO flight track (green & red tracks shown below)

CALIPSO data

Expanded view,next slide

AM pathPM path

Coincidence in Siberian wildfire, MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and the CALIPSO path.

First Views of CALIPSO dataFirst Views of CALIPSO data

CALIPSO captures both the maximum altitude of the smoke plume atabout 6 km and the vertical smoke structure, as it evolves over time.

Scar 3Scar

2

Gray-scale AVHRR image of band 2. This July, 17 2002 image shows dark fire scars (black) and active fires with smoke steaming from them (whitish). Remarkably, increased reflectance from the

1986 fire scars is still apparent, 16 years after the fire events.

Initial albedo analysis

from Sakha, Siberia shows

decreased albedo for

about 4 to 5 years, then it

begins to increase.

Predicted cPredicted changehanges ins in 20902090 precipitation for Siberiaprecipitation for Siberia(Hadley Center, HadCM(Hadley Center, HadCM33GGa1)GGa1)

Precipitation (-4/+25%)

Januarytemperature

(+4/+9oC)

Julytemperature

(+4/+6oC)

Tchbakova an Parfenova, 2000;Parfenova and Tchbakova, 2001

T, 0C, January T, 0C, July Precipitation, mm

Climatic anomalies by 2000 in the north (upper) Climatic anomalies by 2000 in the north (upper) and in the south (lower) of Central Siberiaand in the south (lower) of Central Siberia..

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Climate change in the Sayan Mountains:

observations, 1980-2000 (left) and

predicted (right)by a Hadley Centre

scenario (HadCM3GGa1) for

2090.

Winter temperatures have already

exceeded 2090 model estimates, while

summer temperatures have not. Patterns of

precipitation are currently difficult to

predict, particularly at the GCM scale.

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

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July temperature (oC)

Annual precipitation (%)

January temperature (oC)

Soja, Tchebakova et al., 2007

Vegetation distribution in Siberia: (A) current and (B) future (2100) based on Hadley scenario (HadCM3GGal) (IPCC, 1996).

Water (0), tundra (1), forest–tundra (2), N. dark taiga (3) and N. light taiga (4), middle dark taiga (5) M. light taiga (6), S. dark taiga (7) andS. light taiga (8), forest–steppe (9), steppe (10), semidesert (11), broadleaved (12), temperate forest–steppe (13) and temperate steppe (14).

Tchebakova and Parfenova, 2000, 2001

Modeled biome area change (2090)Modeled biome area change (2090)BiomeBiome Current Area,Current Area,

10104 4 sq. kmsq. kmArea change,Area change,10104 4 sq. km (%)sq. km (%)

TundraTundra 110.8110.8 7.5 (7.5 (-- 93%) 93%) ForestForest--TundraTundra 91.391.3 12.2 (12.2 (-- 87%)87%)Northern dark taigaNorthern dark taiga 1.91.9 1.1 (1.1 (-- 42%)42%)Northern light taigaNorthern light taiga 191.1191.1 48.6 (48.6 (-- 75%)75%)Middle dark taigaMiddle dark taiga 52.752.7 10.2 (10.2 (-- 81%)81%)Middle light taigaMiddle light taiga 237.0237.0 66.2 (66.2 (-- 72%)72%)Southern dark taigaSouthern dark taiga 108.2108.2 127.3 127.3 (+18%)(+18%)Southern light taigaSouthern light taiga 98.698.6 87.0 (87.0 (-- 12%) 12%) ForestForest--steppesteppe 62.662.6 328.1 328.1 (+5(+5--foldfold))SteppeSteppe 139.2139.2 176.5 176.5 (+27%)(+27%)Temperate biomesTemperate biomes 11.811.8 328 328 (+30(+30--foldfold))

“Hot spots” of forest cover changes by 2090

Green – new forest habitats,

Orange – new steppe habitats, white

– no change in forest vegetation

North AmericaNorth AmericaIncreasing fire activity and severityIncreasing fire activity and severityIncreasing vulnerabilitiesIncreasing vulnerabilitiesDiminishing marginal returns on more Diminishing marginal returns on more expendituresexpenditures

Russia Russia Fire management program without fundingFire management program without fundingWidespread forest exploitation of forests Widespread forest exploitation of forests exacerbating fire problemsexacerbating fire problemsNo funding for forest protection despite fact No funding for forest protection despite fact that natural resources (mining/gas and oil) that natural resources (mining/gas and oil) are a major driver of the Russian economyare a major driver of the Russian economyIncreasing vulnerabilitiesIncreasing vulnerabilitiesShift to regional fire control Shift to regional fire control –– will it will it happen? Will it be funded?happen? Will it be funded?Major uncertainties going forwardMajor uncertainties going forward

1 year after severe crown fire

Outlook

Fire weather and fire danger has already increased across boreal North America and Siberia.

Boreal forests and fire are largely under the control of weather and climate, and they feedback to the

climate system, in terms of fire emissions and changes in the Solar Radiation Budget (albedo).

There is currently evidence of climate- and fire-induced change across Siberia, particularly at

treelines (northern, southern, and the upland and lowland mountainous treelines)

Conclusions (1 of 2)

Wildfire is a catalyst that serves two basic purposes in boreal forest:

1)a mechanism to maintain stability and diversity in equilibrium with the climate and;

2) a mechanism by which forests move more rapidly towards equilibrium with climate.

“An altered fire regime may be more important than the direct effects of climate change in forcing or

facilitating species distribution changes, migration, substitution, and extinction.”

Weber and Flannigan (1997)

Conclusions (2 of 2)

Thank-you!

fire and climate interactions in the boreal...

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