boreal 2050: cumulative stressors and the boreal forest

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Dr. Sonja Teichert Postdoctoral Associate Western University Biomass North, Oct 25 2016 Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

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Page 4: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

Scenario Analysis

Purpose:• Enhance understanding• Surface hidden assumptions and risks• Provide context for evaluating the consequences of decisions

What could happen if?...Tomorrow

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 8: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

Identifying Drivers of Change

University of British Columbia

University of Alberta

Lakehead University

Western University

University of Guelph

University of Toronto

McGill University

University of New BrunswickDalhousie University

Alberta Innovates

Eco Risk Management

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 10: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

Scenario Analysis: a structured process

Develop

Logical

Paths

Identify

Driving

Forces

Define

Critical

Uncertainties

Describe

Major

Characteristics

A B

C D

Workshop 1Montreal, QB

June 2016

Workshop 2Montreal, QB

Nov 2016

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 11: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

What are the Axes of a Scenario Analysis?

Two HIGHLY INFLUENTIAL and HIGHLY UNCERTAINforces that generate divergent futures.

Describe

Major

Characteristics

A B

C D

Axis one

Axis two

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario C Scenario D

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 12: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

How do you define the axes for the scenario analysis?

1. Geopolitics & Governance

2. Demographics & Societal Values

3. Industry and Innovation

4. Atmospheric Change5. Demand for

Provisioning Ecosystem Services

6. Demand for Non-provisioning ecosystem services

Selected Drivers

Apply a systematic approach to:1. Rank the drivers

2. Identify drivers/forces with highest importance and highest uncertainty

3. Describe extremes of each axis

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario C Scenario D

tell future histories:

where are we in 2050,

and how did we get here?

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 13: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

Future histories of the Great Lakes Futures Project

13

Out of Control (-, -): Failed to adapt and suffered the consequences; out of balance with no capacity to recover

Living on the Edge (-, +): Converted challenges into profitable opportunities; in balance, but mostly opportunistic

Trying Hard to Adapt to a Chaotic World (+, -): Complex challenges overwhelmed our best intentions; good governance, but overwhelmed by externalities

Thriving and Prosperous (+, +): Rallied to confront collective challenges; sustainable balance through enlightened governance

13

Axis 1: Human capacity for change

Axis 2: Balance environment and economy

Original artwork by Andrea Guzzetta

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 14: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

How do we achieve a course correction?

Explosion of drilling rig and oil spill in Gulf of Mexico.

Image credit: The New York Times.

Risk Management Framework (31000)

Developed to avoid engineering failures … adapted here to avoid ecosystem failures.

Gulf of Mexico dead zone.

Image credit: NOAA.

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 15: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

Systematically assess gaps in policy and practice…

…science is not

effectively

mobilized for

consultation

purposes in policy

formation

…policy neglects

to ask the

appropriate

questions to

science in order to

effectively

improve legislation

…people are not

connecting to the

messages that

require them to

change their

behavior

Step 1. Establish the risk management context

Step 2. Risk Identification

Step 3. Risk Analysis

Step 4. Risk Evaluation

Step 5. Risk Treatment

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 16: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

Risk management tool: Bowtie Analysis (ISO 31010)

ISO for Risk ManagementISO 31010: Bowtie Analysis

Effect

Step 1. Risk Management Context What are the risks,

who is responsible for managing them, and

what are we trying to achieve?

Policy

Objective

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 17: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

How do you define the axes for the scenario analysis?

Step 2. Risk IdentificationWhere do the vulnerabilities lay that may result in failure to meet the policy objective?

Shift focus from cumulative impacts to cumulative pressures and their effects.

Dri

vers

Pressure

Pressure

Pressure

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

Effect

Policy

Objective

ISO for Risk ManagementISO 31010: Bowtie Analysis

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 18: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

How do you define the axes for the scenario analysis?

Prevention

controls

Mitigation

controlsDri

vers

Pressure

Pressure

Pressure

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

Effect

System of management measures (EU, 2008)

Hard

controls

AVOID Where and when is the human activity allowed to occur?

PREVENT What is the amount of human activity permitted?

MITIGATE What is the degree of impact?

Soft

controls

ENABLE What is the allocation and coordination of authority?

FACILITATE How can we make the public care that we can meet the

policy objectives?

TRACK What is the target, and how can we track

compliance/conformity to reach the target?

Escalation

Factors

ISO for Risk ManagementISO 31010: Bowtie Analysis

Step 3. Risk AnalysisWhat is the probability of failing to meet the policy objective – what is the “likelihood” and “magnitude” of the risk event that exist despite the system of management measures?

18

Policy

Objective

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 19: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

How do you define the axes for the scenario analysis?

Prevention

controls

Mitigation

controlsDri

vers

Pressure

Pressure

Pressure

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

Effect

Escalation

Factors

Magnit

ude

Likelihood

Risk Matrix

ISO for Risk ManagementISO 31010: Bowtie Analysis

E

Policy

Objective

Step 3. Risk AnalysisWhat is the probability of failing to meet the policy objective – what is the “likelihood” and “magnitude” of the risk event that exist despite the system of management measures?

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 20: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

How do you define the axes for the scenario analysis?Step 4. Risk Evaluation“So what?” – what are the ecosystem

services that may be reduced or lost

if the significant ecosystem functions

are not safeguarded.

Prevention

controls

Mitigation

controlsDri

vers

Pressure

Pressure

Pressure

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

Effect

Escalation

Factors

ISO for Risk ManagementISO 31010: Bowtie Analysis

Not Tolerable

New Measures Needed

Keep Existing

Measures

No Measures Needed M

agnit

ude

Low Tolerance

Risk Matrix

Magnit

ude

Moderate Tolerance

Risk Matrix

Magnit

ude

High Tolerance

Risk Matrix

Policy

Objective

Likelihood LikelihoodLikelihood

E E E

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 21: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

How do you define the axes for the scenario analysis?Step 5. Risk TreatmentHow do we change the

management system to reduce

the risk event?

Prevention

controls

Mitigation

controlsDri

vers

Pressure

Pressure

Pressure

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

Effect

Escalation

Factors

ISO for Risk ManagementISO 31010: Bowtie Analysis

Magnit

ude

Moderate Tolerance

Risk Matrix

EP

M

Policy

Objective

Likelihood

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 22: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

Adaptive management is iterative…

Dri

vers

Pressure

Pressure

Pressure

Impacts

Impacts

Impacts

Effect

Policy

Objective

Step 1-5 Repeat

ISO for Risk ManagementISO 31010: Bowtie Analysis

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016

Page 24: Boreal 2050: Cumulative Stressors and the Boreal Forest

Acknowledgements

Boreal 2050 is a project funded by the Canadian Network for Aquatic Ecosystem Services

Dr. Irena Creed (Lead Investigator, [email protected])Dr. Sonja Teichert (Project Manager, [email protected])

Questions?

Teichert S., Biomass North Forum, Oct 25 2016