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Field Survey of Vulnerable Glacial Lakes in Kangchenjunga Conservation Area

Report Submitted by The Small Earth Nepal P.O. Box: 20533 | Naya Baneshwor, Kathmandu, Nepal Report Submitted to WWF Nepal P.O. Box: 7660 | Baluwatar, Kathmandu, Nepal

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Table of Contents

CHAPTER I ................................................................................................................................1

Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1Background ................................................................................................................................. 1

1.1.1 Climate Change and its connection with GLOF events ............................................................ 1

1.1.2 Climate Change in Nepal......................................................................................................... 2

1.2 Objective ................................................................................................................................... 3

1.3 Scope of the Study ..................................................................................................................... 3

CHAPTER: II .............................................................................................................................4

Literature Review ................................................................................................................................ 4

CHAPTER III .............................................................................................................................6

Material and Methods .......................................................................................................................... 6

3.1 Desk study ................................................................................................................................. 6

3.2 Field study ................................................................................................................................. 6

CHAPTER IV .............................................................................................................................8

Study Area .......................................................................................................................................... 8

4.1 Kangchenjunga Conservation Area: A brief................................................................................ 8

4.2 Vegetation ................................................................................................................................. 9

4.3 Topography ............................................................................................................................... 9

4.4 Climate ...................................................................................................................................... 9

4.5 Demography ............................................................................................................................ 11

4.6 Socio-economy ........................................................................................................................ 11

CHAPTER: V ........................................................................................................................... 12

Result ................................................................................................................................................ 12

5.1. Glacial Lakes in Kangchenjunga Conservation Area ................................................................ 12

5.2 Factor affecting Glacial Lake Outburst Flood hazard ................................................................ 14

5.3 Vulnerability Assessment of GLOF hazard ............................................................................... 18

A Case Study of Tiptala Glacial Lake Outburst Flood .................................................................... 23

5.4 Risk management strategies ..................................................................................................... 25

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CHAPTER: VI .......................................................................................................................... 26

Conclusion and Recommendation ...................................................................................................... 26

6.1 Conclusion: .............................................................................................................................. 26

6.2 Potential adaptation measures................................................................................................... 26

Reference .................................................................................................................................. 28

Annex I Photographs ................................................................................................................. 31

Annex II: Community consultation map .................................................................................... 33

Annex III Data Collection tools ................................................................................................. 33

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CHAPTER I

Introduction

1.1Background

1.1.1 Climate Change and its connection with GLOF events

Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is

impacting in all sectors mainly fresh water, forest, biodiversity and species. Glaciers of the

Himalayas are retreating at faster rate resulting to formation of glacial lakes which may lead into

disastrous events like Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) and natural hazards making local

people and biodiversity in great threat from its impact. However, we still do not have a clear idea

of its impacts in Himalayas in general and Kangchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA) in

particular, where the landscape is dominated by high mountain peaks and one of the longest non-

polar glaciers on Earth, serving as an important watershed for eastern Nepal and India.

It is generally accepted that many glaciers throughout the world including Nepal are thinning as

a result of climate warming and change in precipitation pattern. Over the past few decades,

human activity has significantly altered the atmospheric composition, leading to climate change

of an unprecedented character (WHO/WMO/ENEP, 2003). The global climate is changing and it

is predicted that by 2100, the earth’s average temperature will be raised by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (IPCC,

2007). This climate change may also be reflected in the glacial environment; some measurements

indicate that Himalayan glaciers have been retreating at an increased rate since 1997

(Bajracharya et al., 2006). Some studies fear that if the glaciers retreat in this way all mountains

glaciers will be disappeared by 2100 (WWF, 2005).

For the global average, warming in the last century has occurred in two phases, from the 1910s

to the 1940s (0.35°C), and more strongly from the 1970s to the present (0.55°C) (IPCC 2007).

An increasing rate of warming has taken place over the last 25 years, and 11 of the 12 warmest

years on record since 1850s have occurred in the past 12 years (1995-2006). The IPCC has

reported that the overall observed surface air temperature in Asia has increased by approximately

1-30C over the last century from 1906 to 2005 (Cruz et al., 2007).

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1.1.2 Climate Change in Nepal

The annual mean temperature of Nepal is increasing steadily at a linear rate of 0.4°C per decade

from 1975 to 2005 (Baidya et al., 2007). ICIMOD (2007) stated the temperature rise in Nepal

within a range of 0.2-0.6oC per decade between 1951 and 2001 particularly during autumn and

winter. This rate is much higher compared to the global temperature rise of 0.74oC in the last 100

years (1906 to 2005) and 0.6oC in the last 30 years (1976 to 2005). Warming trends of the

maximum temperature are ranging from 0.068-0.128°C per year in most of the middle Mountain

and Himalayan regions of Nepal, while southern plain regions show warming trends with less

than 0.038°C per annum (Shrestha et al., 1999).

A study carried out by Sano et al. (2005) in Humla, on tree rings of Abies spectabilis shows a

warming trend from 1750s until approximately 1790, followed by cooling until 1810, then by a

gradual warming trend extending to 1950, and a notable cold period continuing up to the present

showing no evidence of a consistent warming trend over the last century or two commonly

appearing in higher latitudes in Nepal. However, they present the argument that the possible

factor behind the glacial retreat in the Nepal Himalayas was the warming winter (Cook et al.

2003; Hingane et al., 1985 in Sano et al., 2005).

Mean annual temperature for Nepal is projected to increase by 1.3 - 3.8°C by the 2060s, and 1.8 -

5.8°C by the 2090s with range of projections under any one emissions scenario is 1.5 - 2°C by

2090s (UNDP, 2007). It also projects some increase in the frequency of hot days (11-28%) and

nights (18-28%), and considerable decreases in the frequency of cold days and nights.

Since 1850 a retreat of the Himalayan glaciers are detected. The temperature measured at 49

stations in the Himalayan region showed an increase of 1°C from 1950 to 1970. The normal

global warming was about 0.6°C (WWF, 2005). The glacier length decreased between 30 and 60

meters during 1970 to 1989 in the Himalayan region.

Many studies have shown that the glaciers in the Nepalese Himalayas are shrinking at rather

faster rates (Shrestha et al. 2004, Yamada et al.; 1992, Fujita et al.; 2001a, Fujita et al. 2001b).

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Limited studies based on satellite records indicate that northern hemisphere annual snow cover

extent has decreased by about 10% since 1996 over both the Eurasian and American continents

(Shrestha & Joshi, 2009).

Melting of glaciers along with forming of new glacial lakes and extending of existing lakes are

taken as indicators of climate change. The Nepal Himalaya has 3252 glaciers and 2323 glacial

lakes above 3500 masl. They cover an area of 5323km² with an estimated ice of 481 km³.

Among the 2325 glacial lakes in Nepal, 20 of them are potentially dangerous of bursting and 2 of

them are in Tamor basin in KCA (Mool et al, 2001a; Mool et al, 2001b).

1.2 Objective The general objective of the study was to undertake participatory vulnerability assessment (PVA)

of glacial lakes and map at-risk glacial lakes in KCA.

The specific objectives were to:

1. Identify the glacial lakes and their location and prepare GIS map of the glacial lakes in

the Kangchenjunga Conservation Area.

2. Assess the vulnerability of the glacial lakes to the downstream community within the

KCA

3. Identify appropriate actions including community coping strategies to reduce the risk

form glacial lakes in the region

1.3 Scope of the Study This study was conducted within the Kangchenjunga Conservation Area. Remote sensing data

from Google Earth were used to identify the lakes and field visit was carried out to verify them.

In the field, PVA was adopted to identify the community at risk and potential impacts of GLOF

events and potential adaptive measures. Only one glacial lake in the area, Tiptala Lake at

Olangchungola VDC, was visited during the field work in June 2011.

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CHAPTER: II

Literature Review

ICIMOD (2010) conducted a study for the potential risk of a glacial lake outburst flood in

Nepal. They found that TshoRolpa, Imja, Thulagi, Lumding, Lower Barun, West Chamjang are

potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal. The downstream flood risk and the vulnerability

were assessed with mapping of the lakes in the three river basins in the Nepalese Himalaya. Imja

(DudhKoshi basin), TshoRolpa (TanaKoshi basin), Thulagi (Marshyangdi basin) were studied in

detail.

WWF (2010b.) gives some monitoring examples and shows the impact of climate change in the

Himalaya Region. The Eastern Himalaya shows a glacial coverage of 33 km² and a volume of

481 km³ (UNEP/ICIMOD, 2001). The study highlights the importance of glacier water for the

people downstream. WWF also supposes that a total melting of the glacier would create a

shortage of water in Ganga during the period from July to September. This would affect around

500 million people living downstream.

WWF (2009) conducted GLOF risk assessment in Bhutan. In 1994, the GLOF of the Thorthormi

Tsho Lake in Bhutan took 20 lives and a power facility in the valley. WWF fears that a repetition

of such an event would destroy more than the half of the livestock and crops of Punakha und

Wangdi and erase the historic monuments of the valley.

CDHM/TU and WWF (2008) undertook a study on hydrological and meteorological issues of

the Khumbu region to identify the effects of climate change. It has been mentioned that 33 to 89

moraine dammed glacial lakes were created between 1960 and 2000. The volume of existing

lakes, such as Imja, has also increased. The study showed that at 50% lake volume outburst, a

peak discharge of 4757 m3/s is estimated for Imja Lake at its outlet. The total glacier lake area

has grown from 2.291 km² to 7.254 km² and the Imja Glacial Lake has increased from 28 Mio m³

to 35.8 Mio m³ from 1992 to 2002. The calculation in this study shows that the GLOF of the

Imja Lake would be attenuated after 25 to 38 km. This would affect Phakin and Larja Dabhan.

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UNESCO (2006) studied the effect of climate change on World Heritages. In this context, the

case of the glacial lake Tsho Rolpa in the Sagarmatha National Park was mentioned as a success

story of managing the effects of climate change. The Tsho Rolpa glacial lake project was held

between 1998 and 2002. The result was a reduction of the lake water level by 3 meter. The study

indicates some technical information about the lake properties. The volume of the Tsho Rolpa

glacial lake was 90 to 100 million m³ held by a 150 m high moraine dam. One third of the

volume could potentially outflow from the lake. Downstream a hydropower plant (Khimti

hydropower) of 60 MW was in danger. Additionally to the reduction of the lake level, a gate to

release water and an early warning system for 19 villages were installed. The estimated risks

reduction is about 20%.

WWF (2005) investigated the status of glacier, glacier retreat and its subsequent impacts in

Nepal, India and China. It emphasized that the nineteenths was the hottest decade and 1998 the

hottest year of millennium. ASTER shows that the 200 observed mountain glaciers have globally

reduced by 6000 to 8000 km³ between 1961 and 1990.

OECD (2003) studied the effects of climate change on development in Nepal with a focus on

water resources and hydropower. The study predicts a warming of 1.2°C between 2003 and 2050

and of 3°C between 2003 and 2100. It tried to connect development with environment interests.

If, for example, a dam is constructed, the economy profits but the local population becomes more

vulnerable to GLOF and the environment balance is damaged. This example shows the

importance of a case by case decision-making of certain constructions. The negotiations of

climate change impacts shouldn't stop at the boundaries as it concerns everyone.

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CHAPTER III

Material and Methods

This study followed the UNEP and IPCC guidelines. It was comprised in three main parts: desk

study (RS/GIS analysis, secondary data collection, literature survey, pre-field preparation, and

analysis and reporting), field visit (comprehensive environment and socio-economic survey and

PVA exercises) and analysis of data.

3.1 Desk study Available literatures, research reports and topographic maps were studied in depth and a field

visit plan was made on the basis of the literature review. The literature included published and

unpublished research reports, annual reports of KCAP, university researches and other related

books and booklets. Google Earth software was used to pre-identify and locate the lakes in the

region.

Secondary Data: Climate data were collected from DHM (Department of Hydrology and

Meteorology); Topographic maps from the Survey Department; Socio-economic data from

Central Bureau of Statistics; Relevant literatures were collected for the supplementary

information and data.

3.2 Field study Field verification was done in June 2011 in the KCA for taking the GPS location and to identify

one of the existing glacial lakes in the region. GIS software was used to prepare the map of the

glacial lakes in the region on the basis of GPS points and available maps.

The following steps were followed to assess the vulnerability and to identify potential actions to

reduce risk form the glacial lakes:

1. Assessment of exposure of system

2. Identification of hazards related with glacial lake

3. Assessment of hazard impact related with GLOF

4. Identification of appropriate actions to reduce the risk form glacial lakes

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Questionnaire survey, Key informant interview and Participatory Vulnerability Assessment

techniques were used to identify the level of community vulnerability with the glacial lakes in

the region. PVA is considered to be effective tool for climate change impact studies and for

developing adaptation strategies. PVA involves the use of secondary data followed by focus

group discussion, problem trees, historical profiling, concept mapping, and Venn diagrams

in order to gather real time data. All collected data and information were analyzed using

qualitative data analysis techniques. Data from respondents were fed into the computer software

programs – SPSS and MS Excel.

Questionnaire Survey: A set of semi-structured questionnaire were prepared on the basis of

desk study. The questionnaire included the potential risks from the glaciers and GLOF events

and their alternative ways for reducing the impacts of the GLOFs. Three clusters of villages were

chosen for the questionnaire survey - Yamphudin, Ghunsa and Olanchungola.

Key Informant Interview (KII): Key informants - community leaders, hotel entrepreneurs,

school teachers and glaciologists were interviewed. the previous and present conditions of the

glaciers, and formation of glacial lakes were identified.

Focus Group Discussion (FGD): Three focus group discussions were conducted among

different professional groups, they were: Tourism entrepreneurs, farmers and livestock herders.

A FGD moderator’s guideline had been prepared for the discussion.

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CHAPTER IV

Study Area

4.1 Kangchenjunga Conservation Area: A brief Kangchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA), named after Mt. Kangchenjunga (8,586 m) – the

second highest mountain in Nepal and the third highest in the world, is situated in the district of

Taplejung in north-east corner of Nepal within 27o30’ – 28o00’N and 87o45’ – 88o15’E (Fig:

4.1).

Fig: 4.1: Location Map of the Study Area

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Kangchenjunga was designated as a conservation area in March 1998 by the government of

Nepal. It covers an area of 2035 km² (DNPWC, 2011). Taplejung district is also renowned for

high peaks and glaciers. The conservation area with unique mountain ecosystems is envisioned

as a tri-national peace park with Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) of China to the north and

Sikkim, India, in the east. Sikkim already has Khanchenzonga National Park adjoining KCA

whereas the extension of Qomolungma Nature Reserve in TAR, to cover the land bordering

KCA, is in progress.

4.2 Vegetation The KCA can be divided in four vegetation regions: Subtropical Evergreen Forest, 800-1.200 m,

Lower Temperate Forest, 2.500 - 3.900 m, Subalpine Zone, 3.500 - 3.900 m, Alpine Zone, 3.900

- 4.600m. The KCA is a part of the cultural world heritage and hosts more than 250 species of

birds and other endangered wildlife (ICIMOD, 2010).

The area represents high mountain physiographic regions with 65% of its area covered by rocks

and ice. The remaining 35% is covered by forests (14.1%), shrub land (10.1%), grassland (9.2%)

and agricultural land (1.6%). The area is well known for its three river valleys: the Simbua

Khola, the Ghunsa and the Tamor valleys (ICIMOD, 2011).

The IPCC also warns of a completely retreat of glaciers have a major impact also for the

diversity of species; some scenarios predict 60% of species loses in Europe (IPCC, 2007).

4.3 Topography The topography of the area is hilly to mountainous. The elevation ranges from around 1000 m to

the third highest peak with 8,585 m.

4.4 Climate The climate of the area ranges sub-tropical to temperate with high altitudinal variations. As of

the national scenario, more than 80% rainfall occurs in Monsoon season (June-September) and

July is the highest rainfall occurring month with average value of 525.71 mm. January is the least

rainfall month with an average value of 17.50 mm as shown in figure 4.2 below:

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Fig: 4.2: Monthly mean rainfall of the study area.

The average temperature at the Taplejung station shows that July is the warmest month with an

average temperature of 21.15°C and January is the coldest month with an average temperature of

8.97°C as shown in figure 4.3 below:

Fig: 4.3: Monthly mean temperature of the study area.

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4.5 Demography The KCA hosts 5,000 inhabitants. Because of its mountainous the population density is low with

38.47 person/km² compared to the national average of 157 person/ km². But, the population

density is increasing since 1981 (CBS, 2008). Only 1.6% of the soil is used for agricultural

proposes, but, the most people depends on agriculture performance. The others are highly

involved in tourisn for their livelihood.

Three ethnic groups are represented in the KCA, namely Limbu (48%), Sherpa (25%) and Rai

(27%). The education rate is very low; only 50% of the male adult population has attended

school, whereas women even less (20%) (WWF, 2010).

4.6 Socio-economy In KCA has faced some significant changes in people wellbeing, livelihoods strategy, issues and

practices compared with the situation in 1998. Principal change was observed in the livelihoods

strategy. In 1996, 83% of the agriculture income was due to shifting cultivation (Bhasme). In

2007, only 49% of the income came from the shifting cultivation, this indicates a change in the

agro-based livelihood practices towards modern techniques (WWF, 2008).

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CHAPTER: V

Result

5.1. Glacial Lakes in Kangchenjunga Conservation Area

The inventory survey of glacial lakes in Kangchenjunga Conservation Area was undertaken in

June 2011 through remote sensing technique using Google Earth software. A total of 103

individual glacial lakes with total area of 3.4567 sq. km were identified in the KCA (Fig: 5.1,

Table 5.1 and Annex1).

Fig: 5.1: Glacial lakes in Kangchenjunga Conservation Area

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Table 5.1: Summary of glacial lakes in KCA

The majority of lakes were found very small in size. Seven glacial lakes with an area of more than 0.1 sq. km were found (Fig: 5.2)

Fig.: 5.2: Glacial lakes with area of more than 0.1 sq. km.

Number of glacial lakes 103

Total area covered by the lakes 3.4567 km2

Maximum area of a lake 0.6808 km2

Minimum area of a lake 0.00003 km2

Total area of the KCA 2035 km2

% of area covered by the glacial lakes 0.16

Number of lakes with area more than 0.1 km2 7

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5.2 Factor affecting Glacial Lake Outburst Flood hazard 5.2.1 Climate Change and Climate Variability in the area

Temperature

Forty seven years (1963-2009) of monthly temperature data of the Taplejung synoptic station were taken from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) for climate change analysis. The result shows that the maximum temperature of the area is increasing with the rate of 0.029°C per year (statistically significant at 99% level of significance). The maximum temperature trend has been shown in figure 5.3 below:

Fig.: 5.3: Maximum temperature trend of the area.

The variation of maximum temperature in the region has been shown in table 5.2

Table 5.2: Variation of maximum temperature in the region

1963-1975 1976-1990 1990-2009 Average temperature (°C) 20.3 20.2 20.9 Standard Deviation (°C) 0.435017 0.288033 0.6 Coefficient of Variation ( %) 2.146813 1.423116 2.89783

The average mean temperature of the region is also increasing at the rate of 0.017°C per year (statistically significant at 99% level of confidence). The average temperature trend has been shown in figure 5.4.

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Fig.: 5.4: Temperature trend of the area

The variation of average temperature in the region has been shown in the table 5.3 below.

Table 5.3: Variation of maximum temperature in the region

1963-1975 1976-1990 1990-2009 Average temperature (°C) 15.7 15.8 16.2 Standard Deviation (°C) 0.251939 0.255894 0.5 Coefficient of Variation (%) 1.600145 1.620036 2.977857

Rainfall:

The rainfall data analysis from Lungthung station of Taplejung shows that there is not significant change in total amount of rainfall as shown in fig 5.5

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Fig.: 5.5: Rainfall trend of Lunthung.

The rainfall variability in different time intervals has been shown in table 5.4

Table 5.4: Variation annual rainfall in the region

1948-1968 1969-1988 1989-2009 Average annual rainfall (mm) 2196.623 2223.045 2321.071 Standard Deviation (mm) 384.615 377.7071 357.3745 Coefficient of variation (%) 17.50938 16.99053 15.39696

Seasonal analysis of the rainfall data also shows that there is no significant change in rainfall amount in

monsoon and winter season as shown in figure 5.6.

Fig.: 5.6: Variation in monsoon and winter of Lunthung station.

The rainfall data analysis from the Tapethok station shows that the rainfall in increasing slightly which is significant at 99% level of confidence as shown in figure 5.7. The winter rainfall has no change while there is significant change in monsoon rainfall.

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Fig.: 5.7: Rainfall variation in monsoon and winter of Tapethok station.

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5.3 Vulnerability Assessment of GLOF hazard 5.3.1Potential impacts of GLOF in the area

Sweeping out of settlement

Most of the settlements of the KCA area are situated in the river corridor (Fig: 5.8, Table: 5.5). The slope of the area is very steep near the river corridor so the houses are very much vulnerable to GLOF events. The geology of Olangchungola area is very much fragile so small bank cutting from the river may cause devastating impacts to the settlement there in.

Impacts: The impact may cause migration which affects the demographic setting of the area disturbing the distribution of natural resources of the area. People get difficulty to be adjusted to the new location if migrated.

Fig.: 5.8: Glacial lakes with settlement in study area.

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Table 5.5: Households in Risk

Impacts on cultivation land

Being in hilly regions, the cultivable land mainly paddy and cardamom fields are along the corridor of the Tamor River (Figure 5.9). If the GLOF event occurs, the land could be partially and completely destroyed either by inundation, sweeping away or by depositing boulders on cultivated land.

Impacts: This might cause food insecurity leading to famine in the region. Agriculture is one of the major professions of the people so the destruction of farmland may also lead to the problem of unemployment.

Village Number of Households Ghunsa 43 Phale 26 Gyabla 16 Amjilosha 6 Sekathum 28 Sotlima 11 Mauma 5 Olangchungola 60 Yangma 15 Ramtang 8 Lonak 12 Tapethok 15 Tamewa 8 Chhiruwa 20 Total 273

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Fig.: 5.9: Glacial lakes with land cover in the study area.

Destruction of Livestock

Yak, chauri, cow and sheep farming are a major source of income of the people in the area. There is roughly 4000 yaks and chauris in the Kanchanjungha area and ghee, chhurpi, cheese etc. are major dairy products. Their major habitat is along the river corridor so are vulnerable to the GLOF event. Moreover, the productive grazing lands in the area are frequently destructed with flooding.

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Destruction of foot-trail

Most of the foot-trails in the region are along the river corridor so they are highly vulnerable to GLOF events (Figure 5.10). The trekking trails from Taplejung headquarters to Olangchungola and to the Kanchanjungha base camp are along the Tamor and Ghunsa rivers respectively. There are altogether 19 bridges (14 over Tamor River and 5 over Ghunsa River). The flooding after GLOF event could sweep away the bridges across the rivers.

Impacts: If the trails are destructed, there will be detachment of the upstream settlement to the headquarters. The nearest market of the people living in the study area is Taplejug bazaar. Therefore, there might be price hike of basic commodity if the road network is disconnected. Destruction of road networks may impacts on tourist, a major income generating activity of the people especially towards the base camp.

Fig.: 5.10: Glacial lakes with foot trail in the study area.

Destruction of Infrastructures

The GLOF may affect a health-post, police bit and other social service infrastructures at Olangchugola and Tapethok (Table 5.4). The flooding may cause severe damage to people and may leave with injuries. These areas, however, being in very remote places, have limited basic health facilities. The GLOF event may cause outbreak of diseases and malnutrition problems.

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Table 5.4: Infrastructures at Risk

What How many Sub-health posts 2 (Olangchungola and Tapethok) Police bit 1 (Tapethok) Telephone All at Olangchungola, Ghunsa and Tapethok Hydropower 4 (2 existing and 2 proposed) Bridges 19 (14 in Tamor River and 5 in Ghunsa River)

Religions and cultural impacts

Mountainous region has pocket culture practiced over a long time period. Especially Sperpa culture in the region could be disappeared if the GLOF event disturbs the settlements. The Likhi Chhoring Monastery at Olanchungola village is renowned for ancient sculptures of Buddha which was established in the 16th century. There are lots of Buddhist epics which are almost rare. The monastery may also be affected with the GLOF event if the flooding is of very high in magnitude.

Table 5.4: Monasteries at Risk

Where How many Phale 4 Ghunsa 2 Yangma 1 Olangchungola 1 Tamewa 1 Gyabla 1 Total 10

Impacts on natural resources

Natural resources like biodiversity, forest, sources of drinking water could be severely affected with GLOF events. Wild animals dependent on the forest may be disrupted with the loss of forest. The area is well recognized for pocket of major medicinal herbs.

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5.3.2 Major past extreme flooding events

A Case Study of Tiptala Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Tiptala is a glacial lake situated in Taplejung district. It was named after Tintala (in Nepali: three

stairs) as it lies just in the shape of three stairs of land geography.

Location

The Tiptala glacial lake (87°45’55”E & 27°48’42”N) is situated at Olangchungola VDC in

Kanchanjungha Conservation Area (KCA). The lake is very close to Nepal-China boarder and

situated at an altitude of 4982 m from the sea level.

GLOF history

The Tiptala Lake had burst in January of 1964 and its impressions are still visible along the

Tamor River. The flood after bursting the Lake was with high discharge and being with high

gradient, it swept away lots of lives and property. Trekking trail from Olangchungola village to

China boarder was completed disrupted by the flood. The houses in lower belt of the

Olangchungola village were swept away and the village is still vulnerable to landslide because of

the bank cutting. The destruction to the settlement remained for 7 years after the GLOF events

and still the area is fragile so at any time the houses may fall. It also destroyed livestock and

cultivated land.

When What Impacts

1922 Bursting of Lanak Lake Sweeping away of settlements and destruction to road network

1964 Bursting of Tiptala Lake Sweeping away of settlements, destruction of cultivable lands

1972 Flooding in Simwa River Loss of fertile land and sweeping of livestock.

23 June 1980 Bursting of Nangama Lake Sweeping away of settlements, destruction of cultivable lands

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Present condition

The area of the Tiptala Lake is 167,020 square meters which is fed with water from the Tiptala

glacier. The lake is very large in size and is dammed by a fragile moraine. The lake is surrounded

by large dam of 100 m height. The water discharge from the outlet is sufficient and large

boulders in the downstream flow are evidences of the bursting of the lake in past. The level of

water in the lake is increasing these days. The lake is dangerous of re-bursting as snow avalanche

may trigger the bursting.

Potential Impacts

Several landslides along the course of Tamor River are visible clearly and the area can be

interpreted as more vulnerable to landslide. If the lake bursts, the Olangchungola village is at

high risk. The trekking trail from Lelep to China boarder will be disrupted which disconnect the

local people from nearest market for selling their products like ghee and other dairy products and

buying daily necessary needs. The foot trail also connects Olangchungola to Mauma where local

people live during livestock grazing. Cultivated land along the course of river will be swept

away. It may affect to hydropower plants, which are in planning stage one in Olangchungola area

and the other at Tapethok (Sanima Hydropower).

Potential adaptation measures

There is a need of alternative trekking trail from Olagchungola to Tiptala so that if the existing

trail is destructed, people can be connected with China, the nearest market. Bridges across the

river should be constructed with detailed study of the glacial lake. The sub health post at the

Olangchungola village should be well equipped with emergency medicines and medical

practitioners.

Awareness program at the Olangchungola village sensitize the local people regarding the GLOF

event and how to cope with the event.

Local youth women groups should be trained with first aid and emergency rescue operation as

well.

The existing telephone connection in the Olangchungola village should have dual battery

charging system from solar power and locally generated electricity so that if one is destroyed

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then another works. People are willing to have mobile cell phones, they could be an effective

communication in emergency.

There is a feasibility of livestock insurance mechanism with a detailed study.

Periodic shifting of people from the area from July to October may be an option to save the life

of people.

5.4 Risk management strategies 5.4.1 Mitigation Measures

otential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood hazards can be minimized by various measures.. The primary objective should be to reduce the risk of a flood from the lake. However, adaptation or coping measures to protect life and property in the downstream area must also be undertaken. It is therefore required to have monitoring systems of glacial lake prior to, during, and after the GLOF, so that settlements in the downstream area are protected against GLOF. Mitigation measures to effect risk reduction can be structural or non-structural. The structural mitigation measures should aim at reducing the volume of water in the lake. Reduction of the volume of water in the lake should reduce the potential peak surge discharge as well as the hydrostatic pressure exerted on the moraine dam, and is the most effective mitigation measure. There are different ways to achieve this that can be used alone or in combination:

1. Controlled breaching of the moraine dam

2. Construction of an outlet control structure

3. Pumping or siphoning the water from the lake

4. Tunneling through the moraine barrier or under an ice dam

26

CHAPTER: VI

Conclusion and Recommendation

6.1 Conclusion: Climate change is affecting every sector and mountainous areas are the most vulnerable with the

impacts of changing climate. It is causing rapid melting of glaciers thereby increasing the

number and size of glacial lakes. Kanchanjenga Conservation Area (KCA) lies in the eastern

mountainous region of Nepal in Taplejung district and covers four Village Development

Committees; Lelep, Olangchungola, Yamphudin and Tapethok. Preliminary remote sensing

study has found that there are approximately one hundred glacial lakes of various sizes in the

area. There are already a couple of Glacial Lakes Outburst Flood (GLOF) events in 1970s whose

evidences are still found, and few more in several decades before. Most of the settlements and

agriculture fields are in river corridors. Fragile geology and steep slopes accelerates landslide in

the region and severe bank cutting triggers it. As per the locals, the frequency of GLOF events is

less, however, when the event occurs, it destroys lives and properties at a large scale and the

recovery period is of several decades.

6.2 Potential adaptation measures 1. Development of Alternative trekking trails

Most of the routes are along the river corridors so alternative foot-trail from throughout the

KCA is necessary. The trail should be far from the river course and landslides.

2. Comprehensive vulnerability Assessment

Comprehensive vulnerability assessment of large glacial lakes in the area is needed. The

assessment includes defining of hazard zonation and safe sites. This helps people to migrate to

the safer zone during the time of GLOF event.

3. Early warning system mechanisms

After the comprehensive vulnerability assessment of glacial lakes in the area, early warning

system to the major settlements such as Olangchungola, Yangma, Ghunsa, Tapethok, Chhiruwa

is necessary. This helps people to migrate towards the safe area if there are any GLOF events.

4. Strengthening communication mechanism

27

In Ghunsa area, there are two types of telephone (landline and V-Sat) but thereis only one

telephone in Olangchungola area which is only one way of charging the battery. The electricity

in the Olangchungola area is generally cut in day-time so there will be no battery in telephone if

the days are cloudy or rainy. So, in Olangchungola, there should be two way charging system

telephone (electricity and solar). People there are willing to have their own cell phone so mobile

tower at Olangchungola area and Ghunsa area.

5. Community empowerment

Local community based organizations like youth clubs, mother groups are recommended to

have intense training of rescue operation in emergency situation. Massive awareness program

has been recommended among the community people.

6. Livestock Insurance

GLOF event in the KCA area is expected to have severe impacts on livestock. Chauri, Yak, cow

and sheep are the major livestock in the area. Livestock insurance mechanism with seed money

from donor agency is recommended. In the insurance system, people having livestock bearing

child deposit certain money in local community group and those people having death of

livestock are provided with certain money for recovery of the loss.

7. Adaptation measure in development

In new developing activities, infrastructures are recommended to construct with detailed

analysis of GLOF vulnerability assessment. Houses should not be constructed in steep slope

areas. Bridges should be constructed with detailed study of hydrology in the area.

8. Periodic shifting

Houses in Olangchungola area are much more vulnerable to GLOF events. So, it is

recommended that the settlement should be shifted periodically (July to September) in another

location and back in other months. The monsoon season is much more vulnerable to GLF

events.

28

Reference

1. Bajracharya, S.R., Mool, P. K., Shrestha, B. R., (2008). Impact of Climate Change on

Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial Lakes, Case Studies on GLOF and Associated Hazards

in Nepal and Bhutan, ICIMOD and UNEP, Kathmandu, Nepal

2. Bajracharya, S.R., Mool, P.K., (2006). Impacts of Global Climate Change from 1970s to

2000s on the Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in Tamor Basin, Eastern Nepal, ICIMOD,

Kathmandu

3. Centeral Bureau of Statistics (2008). Environment Statistics of Nepal, Thapathali,

Kathmandu, Nepal

4. Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Tribhuvan University (2008).

Integrated Study on Hydrology and Meteorology of Khumbu Region with Climate

Change Perspectives: WWF Nepal; Web Page:

http://www.wwfnepal.org/index.cfm?uGlobalSearch=khumbu+report , retrieved on 2

August 2011

5. DNPWC(2011).Conservation Areas; Kangchenjunga Conservation Area, Web Page:

http://www.dnpwc.gov.np/conservation-Kangchenjunga.asp , retrieved on 21 May 2011

6. Fujita, K., Kadota, T., Rana, B., Shrestha, R.B., and Ageta, Y., (2001a). Shrinkage of

Glacier AX010 in Shorong region, Nepal Himalayas in the 1990s, Bulletin of

Glaciological Research, 18: 51-54

7. Fujita, K., Nakajawa, F., and Rana, B., 2001b. Glaciological observation on Rika Samba

Glacier in Hidden Valley, Nepal Himalayas, 1998 and 1999. Bulletin of Glaciological

Research, 18:31-35

8. ICIMOD (2011). Kanchenjunga Conservation Area, Web Page:

http://www.icimod.org/hkhconservationportal/PA.aspx?ID=1, retrieved on 21 May 2011

29

9. ICIMOD. (2010). ICIMOD shares results of glacial lakes studies. Retrieved August 1,

2011, from http://www.icimod.org/?q=1067

10. IPCC, (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Forth Assessment, Inter-

governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-

report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf (retrieved on 22 May 2011)

11. Joshi, A. S. , & Shrestha, A.B., (2009). Snow Cover and Glacier Change Study in

Nepalese Himalaya Using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System. Journal

of Hydrology and Meteorology, Society of Hydrologists and Meteorologists-Nepal, 6(1),

26-36.

12. Kattelmann, R., (2003). Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in the Nepal Himalaya: A

Manageable Hazard? Natural Hazards, Vol. 28, pp 145-154

13. Mool, PK; Bajracharya, SR; Joshi, SP (2001a). Inventory of glaciers, glacial lakes, and

glacial lake outburst floods: Monitoring and early warning systems in the Hindu Kush-

Himalayan regions - Nepal. Kathmandu: ICIMOD

14. Mool, PK; Wangda, D; Bajracharya, SR; Kunzang, K; Gurung, DR; Joshi, SP; (2001b).

Inventory of glaciers, glacial lakes, and glacial lake outburst floods: Monitoring and

early warning systems in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region – Bhutan. Kathmandu:

ICIMOD

15. OECD (2003).Development and Climate Change in Nepal: Focus on Water Resources

and Hydropower; Web Page: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/6/51/19742202.pdf,

retrieved on 2 August 2011

16. Shakya, B. (2001). Estimation of main hydrological characteristics of Mountain Rivers of

Nepal, Research Paper, Central Asian Research Hydro-meteorological Institute,

556.535.3

17. Shrestha, A.B., Aryal, R., & Rana, B. (2004). Glacier Fluctuation and Climate Change in

the Nepal Himalaya: A review. Scientific World, 2: 73-77

30

18. Shrestha, A.B., Wake, C.P., Mayewski , P.A., Dibb, J.E. (1999). Maximum temperature

trends in the Himalayas and it’s vicinity: An analysis based on temperature records from

Nepal for the period 1971-1994, Journal of Climate, 12:2767-2775

19. UNEP (1999).Glacial Lake Outburst Monitoring and Early Warning System in Hindu

Kush Himalayas; Shrestha S., Moe T. A., Thailand; Page Web:

http://www.rrcap.unep.org/lc/cd/html/proj7.html , retrieved on 2 August 2011

20. UNESCO (2006). Predicting and Managing the Effects of Climate Change on World

Heritage; London; Page Web:whc.unesco.org/uploads/news/documents/news-262-1.doc,


21. WHO/WMO/UNEP, (2003). Climate Change and Human Health: Risk and Responses,

Summary, Geneva

22. WWF (2004). WWF January 2004 report; Web Page:

http://www.wwfnepal.org/index.cfm?uGlobalSearch=Kangchenjunga , retrieved on 1

August 2011

23. WWF (2010a.).Shifting Cultivation in the Sacred Himalayan Landscape; A Case Study in

the Kangchenjunga Conservation Area, WWF, Kathmandu, Nepal, p.9-11

24. WWF (2010b.).Monitoring the glaciers of the Himalayas, Nepal; Web Page:

http://wwf.panda.org/who_we_are/wwf_offices/nepal/index.cfm?uProjectID=NP0898 ,


25. WWF. (2005). An Overview of Glaciers, Glacier Retreat, and Subsequent Impacts in

Nepal. Retrieved on August 2011, 2011, from All publications:

http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/?19092/An-Overview-of-

Glaciers-Glacier-Retreat-and-Subsequent-Impacts-in-Nepal-India-and-China

26. WWF. (2008). Annual Report 2007-2008. Kathmandu: WWF.

27. Yamada, T. et al. (1992). Fluctuations of the glaciers from the 1970s to 1989 in the

Khumbu, Shorong and Langtang regions, Nepal Himalaya, Bulletin of Glacier Research,

10:11-19

31

Annex I Photographs

Figure 1: Yak farming, the major occupation in mountains Figure 2: Yak at high altitude

Figure 3: Bridges across the Tamor Tiver Figure 4: Olangchungola Village

32

Figure 5: Medicinal herb at high altitude Figure 6: Flood mark in the Tamor River

Figure 7: Tiptala Glacial Lake at 4982 m Figure 3: Telephone system at Olangchungola village

33

Annex II: Community consultation map

34

Annex III Data Collection tools

Questionnaire for Household Survey

Namaste!

I am……………………….from The Small Earth Nepal and I am here to conduct a research GLOF Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Kanchenjunga Conservation Area. I appreciate your kind cooperation in answering the following questions, which will be very much helpful for further management of the KCA. The information given by you will totally be confidential and will only be used for this study. Your participation in this survey is completely voluntary. This interview will take approximately 15 minutes.

May I start? Yes No Lat:

GPS Coordinate

Lon:

HH Number: VDC Name:……………………….. Date:

dd mm yyyy

I. General Information

a. Name (Head of Family):…………………………

b. Cast:…………………………….

c. Gender: Male Female

d. Address: VDC: ………………….Tole…………………. …………..Ward No.

e. Education: ……………………..

f. Birth Place: ……………………………….

g. If migrated from other place, reason of migration……………………………………

35

II. Family Roaster

S.N. Name Gender

1=male

2=female

Age Education Employment

(If any)

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Education level Illiterate = 0, Literate = 1, Up to SLC = 2, CL/+2 = 3, Bachelors and above = 4 III. Socioeconomic Information

1. What is the major source of income in your family?

a. Agriculture ( ) b. Outside employment ( ) c. Business ( ) d. Daily wages ( ) e. Service ( ) f. Other (specify)…………………………………… If Agriculture, give the followings information:

Types of Land Own land and self agricultural practice

Other land Own land give to other for agricultural practice

Coast of one unit of land

Upland With irrigation facility

Rain fed

36

Lower wet land Bare land Forest/River/other (specify)…………

2. How many years are you doing farming for? ............................................. 3. For how long the food production is sufficient to your family?

Less than 3 months

3 to 6 months

6 to 9 months

9 to 12 months

More than 12 months

Present

Past

4. On previous year, how much production was there?

5. How

many members are

engaged in agric

ulture?

................

................

................

................... a. Full time ( ) b. Part time ( ) c. Occasionally ( )

6. What are the major crops you grow in a year? ………………………………….

...........................................................................................................................................

7. Do you have livestock ? Yes No If yes, how many? Cow = ….Buffalo = …Goat = …Poultry = ……Pigs = ….. others (specify).....=.......

8. What is your family’s’ annual income? ……………………………

11. is there any change in the income source since for last 15-20 years?

Types of crop Area Total production

How much you sold/ Price

How much you bought/ Price

Rate of production compare to 10-20 years ago(D/I/S)

Rice Maize Wheat Barley Potato Mustard Others………..

D= Decreasing

I= Increasing

37

Yes No if yes how they changed?.............................................................

IV. Risk and vulnerability of GLOF 1. Have you noticed any changes in climatic condition in this area? ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………2. Have you noticed any of the following? (Tick) a. Increase in glacial lake ( ) b. Retreat of glaciers ( ) c. Flashfloods and landslides ( ) ……………………… 3. Have you experienced any changes in water availability? Yes/No

If yes, since when

Remarks (water quality and sedimentation etc.)

Increased in river flows/reliable supply

4. Any serious unfavorable events happened related to climate and weather? If yes, when? a. b. 5. What are the major obstacles during these disasters? ……………………………………………………………………………………… 6. Please mention loss or damages cause due to disaster? ………………………………………………………………………………………

V. Adaptive measures

1. What measures you have undertaken for coping with such changes? Insurance………………… Early warning system……. ……………………………

2. Are there any cooperative mechanisms to reduce the impacts? Community cooperative: Women Group: Red-cross: ………….. 3. In your area, is there training/education to climate change and GLOF? …………………………………………………………………………………………… 4. Whether the adaptation measures undertaken are satisfactory or not? ………………………………………………………………………. 5. Do the adaptation measures help to cope with the effects of disaster?

38

Yes ( ) No ( )

Satisfactory ( ) Not satisfactory ( )

5. In your opinion, how can adverse impacts are mitigated/reduced?

………………………………………………………………………………

Thank you for your time and the valuable information!

39

Detailed work plan

Activity Key Answer Techniques Tools use Documents/ Materials Required

1. Glacier/ Glacial Lake Inventory and Compilation

1. Existing no of glacial lake of KCA

1. Remote sensing 2. GIS

1. Google Earth 2. Arc GIS

1.GIS Data 2.Satellite Image 3.Image from GE

2. Identification of potential danger glacial lake (large surface area >2 sq. km??)



1. GIS Data 2. Satellite Image 3. Image from GE

3. Growth rate of potential danger glacial lake



1. GIS Data 2. Satellite Image 3. Image from GE

2. GLOF Hazard Risk Assessment

1. Factor affecting hazard 1. PVA 2. Questionnaire survey 3. Key informant interview

1. Hazard Map 2. Hazard Matrix 3. Historical Profile or Time Line 4. Questionnaire survey form 5. Guideline for KII

1. Topo Map/ Glacial inventory map 2. Hazard Matrix form 3. Historical Profile or Time Line form 4. Questionnaire survey form 5. Guideline for KII

2. Level of risk of hazard 1. PVA 2. Questionnaire survey 3. Key informant interview

1. Hazard Map 2. Hazard Matrix 3. Historical Profile or Time Line

1. Topo Map/ Glacial inventory map 2. Hazard Matrix form 3. Historical Profile or Time Line form 4. Questionnaire survey form 5. Guideline for KII

40

3. Vulnerability assessment of glacial lake

1. factor affecting (physical) vulnerability from lake outburst

1. PVA 2. Questionnaire survey 3. Key informant interview

i. Social/ Resource Mapping ii. Transect walk iii. Livelihood Analysis iv. Seasonal Calendar vi. Problem tree and Ranking vii. Institutional and social Network Analysis viii. Key Informant Interview: ix. Focus Group Discussion: x. Questionnaire Interview

1. Topo Map/ Glacial inventory map ii. Note taking/ recording device for transect walk iii. Livelihood Analysis iv. Seasonal Calendar form vi. Problem tree and Ranking form vii. Institutional and social Network Analysis form viii. Key Informant Interview guideline ix. Focus Group Discussion guideline: x. Questionnaire Interview form

2. Vulnerability mapping for lake outburst


3. Assessing aspect of human vulnerability


4. Risk management strategies (Mitigation/ Adaptation)

1. Action for hazard reduction


2. Alternative measure of hazard reduction


3. Vulnerability reduction: a. VR- by engineering method b. VR- by social method


4. Regional and National risk reduction strategies

1. PVA 2. National Level Consultation Meeting

of 2

Summary Report

Field Survey of Vulnerable Glacial Lakes in Kangchenjunga Conservation Area

Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is

impacting in all sectors mainly fresh water, forest, biodiversity and species. Glaciers of the

Himalayas are retreating at faster rate resulting to formation of glacial lakes which may lead into

disastrous events like Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) and natural hazards making local

people and biodiversity in great threat from its impact. However, we still do not have a clear idea

of its impacts in Himalayas in general and Kangchenjunga Conservation Area (KCA) in

particular, where the landscape is dominated by high mountain peaks and one of the longest non-

polar glaciers on Earth, serving as an important watershed for eastern Nepal and India.

It is generally accepted that many glaciers throughout the world including Nepal are thinning as

a result of climate warming and change in precipitation pattern. Over the past few decades,

human activity has significantly altered the atmospheric composition, leading to climate change

of an unprecedented character (WHO/WMO/ENEP, 2003). The global climate is changing and it

is predicted that by 2100, the earth’s average temperature will be raised by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (IPCC,

2007). This climate change may also be reflected in the glacial environment; some measurements

indicate that Himalayan glaciers have been retreating at an increased rate since 1997

(Bajracharya et al., 2006). Some studies fears that if the glaciers retreat in this way all mountains

glaciers disappear by 2100 (WWF, 2005).

Kanchanjenga Conservation Area (KCA) lies in the eastern mountainous region of Nepal in

Taplejung district and covers four Village Development Committees; Lelep, Olangchungola,

Yamphudin and Tapethok. Remote sensing study and participatory vulnerability assessment was

carried out to identify the number and condition of glacial lakes, their impacts in the community

if burst and potential adaptation measures. The result shows that the maximum temperature of

the area is increasing at the rate of 0.029°C per year (statistically significant at 99% level of

confidence). Remote sensing study shows that there are one hundred and three (103) glacial

lakes of various sizes in the area covering an area of 3.47 km2 (0.16%). There are already a

couple of Glacial Lakes Outburst Flood (GLOF) events in 1970s whose evidences are still found,

of 2

and few more in several decades before. Most of the settlements and agriculture fields are in

river corridors. Fragile geology and steep slopes accelerates landslide in the region and severe

bank cutting triggers it. As per the locals, the frequency of GLOF events is less, however, when

the event occurs, it destroys lives and properties at a large scale and the recovery period is of

several decades. Fourteen settlements with total households of 273 are at risk of GLOF events at

the area.

Most of the routes are along the river corridors; therefore, alternative foot-trail throughout the

KCA is necessary. The trail should be far from the river course and landslides. Comprehensive

vulnerability assessment of large glacial lakes in the area is needed. The assessment includes

defining of hazard zones and safe sites. This helps people to migrate to the safer zone during the

time of GLOF event. After the comprehensive vulnerability assessment of glacial lakes in the

area, early warning system to the major settlements such as Olangchungola, Yangma, Ghunsa,

Tapethok, Chhiruwa is necessary. In Ghunsa area, there are two types of telephone (landline and

V-Sat) but there is only one telephone in Olangchungola area having only one way of charging

the battery. The electricity in the Olangchungola area is generally cut in day-time so there will be

no battery in telephone if the days are cloudy or rainy. Thereofre, in Olangchungola, there should

be two way charging system for telephone (electricity and solar). People are willing to have their

own cell phone, mobile tower at Olangchungola area and Ghunsa area is essential. Community

based organizations like youth clubs, mother groups are recommended to have intense training of

rescue operation in emergency situation. Massive awareness program has been recommended

among the community people. GLOF event in the KCA area is expected to have severe impacts

on livestock like Chauri, Yak, cow and sheep. Livestock insurance mechanism with seed money

from donor agency is recommended. In the insurance system, people having livestock bearing

child deposit certain money in local community group and those people having death of livestock

are provided with certain money for recovery of the loss. In new developing activities,

infrastructures are recommended to construct with detailed analysis of GLOF vulnerability

assessment. Houses should not be constructed in steep slopes. Houses in Olangchungola area are

much more vulnerable to GLOF events. So, it is recommended that the settlement should be

shifted periodically (July to September) in another location and back in other months. The

monsoon season is much more vulnerable to GLF events.