February 1 – February 15

2

CONTENTS

Foreword (General Observations)………………………………………....3

Americas………………………………………………………………………..6

Arms Control and Disarmament…………………………………………..13

China and East Asia…………………………………………………………17

Europe…………………………………………………………………….........19

Middle East & West Asia……………………………………………………23

South Asia……………………………………………………………………..31

United Nations………………………………………………………………….37

3

Area Briefs: 1-15 February 2017

General Observations

Pakistan

A new wave of terrorism broke out across the country in the second week of February. In

Karachi a television DSNG van was attacked resulting in the death of a cameraman. The

next day, 13 February, a suicide bomber detonated himself in the midst of a public protest

by Pharmacists in front of the Punjab Assembly in Lahore, with a rising death toll of 18,

including two senior police officials. The Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, an Afghanistan-based faction

of the Tehreek-i-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for this attack. A day

later, in Peshawar, judicial officers were targeted by terrorists. The series of attacks

across the country in the first fortnight of February clearly cast doubts on claims that

terrorism was on the wane after the success of the FATA-based military operation Zarb-

e-Azb. These terrorist attacks will also make it more difficult for the political parties to

refuse an extension to the military courts extension that is being demanded by the

government and the military.

India continued to stonewall on Pakistan’s request to the Indian government to produce

“concrete evidence” against Jamaat-ul-Dawa (JuD) Chief Hafiz Saeed who has been

placed under house arrest. India wants Pakistan to proceed against him as the alleged

mastermind of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, but so far it has refused to cooperate with the

Pakistani authorities in terms of giving concrete evidence to back their allegations.

On the strategic security front, Pakistan has become more vocal in exposing India’s

aggressive military designs in the region. Foreign Affairs Adviser Sartaj Aziz declared

that India had destabilised the Indian Ocean by instigating its nuclearisation. As a result

of this, Pakistan was being compelled to counter this new dimension of the Indian nuclear

threat, in order to maintain peace in the Indian Ocean Region. India’s notable rise in its

naval expenditure, the commissioning into service of its nuclear powered submarine

along with the development of its SLBMs, aircraft carriers and stealth frigates had upped

the military ante in the Indian Ocean.

Pakistan also held a multilateral Aman 17 naval exercise in the Arabian Sea with 37

countries participating, including China, Russia and the USA in the second week of

February. For Pakistan the focus on its naval forces is a welcome development –

especially since it has tested its sea-launched cruise missile thereby signaling the

acquisition of second-strike capability.

The refusal of a US visa to the Deputy Chairman of the Senate of Pakistan revealed once

again the US’s hostile policy towards issuing Pakistanis visas. The Senate Chairman took

a firm stance on this issue and decided to boycott the UN meeting in New York while

4

declaring that no US Senate delegation would be welcome in Pakistan. Unfortunately the

government kept an inexplicable silence on this issue. At a time when the Trump

Administration has shown an open hostility towards Muslim states and Islam, the

Pakistan government’s silence on the visa issue is disturbing.

International

India’s militarisation continued unabated. On 11 February, it successfully tested a high-

altitude interceptor missile, moving it further down the path of achieving a two-layered

Ballistic Missile Defence system that it has been developing with technological inputs

from the US and Israel.

Afghanistan continued to suffer terrorist attacks with a bomb blast outside the Supreme

Court in Kabul on 7 February killing 20 people and, on the same day, a bombing in Farah

province, which killed a senior district official. The Afghan Taliban claimed

responsibility for these attacks.

Trump had to backtrack on his earlier public rejection of the traditional US One China

policy and in a call to Chinese President Xi Jinping, he committed to continuing the “One

China” policy.

Meanwhile President Trump continued to publicly lash out at the US intelligence

community and the media labeling the latter as liars. His Administration has yet to evolve

a semblance of order especially with Trump himself continuing to tweet his views on

policy issues – which often have to be toned down or backtracked later.

US Defence Secretary Mattis also informed NATO members that they would have to

increase their defence spending or the US would curtail its NATO commitments.

Trump also upped the ante in the South China Sea when, while hosting Japanese Prime

Minister Shinzo Abe, he pledged support to Japanese territorial claims in the South China

Sea. Clearly, the conflict in the South China Sea is going to get aggravated under the new

US Administration.

The Iran-US relationship also seems headed towards greater schisms with a strong

Iranian reaction to the US putting Iran “on notice” for its missile tests. Iran’s Supreme

5

Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismissed this US move and referred to Trump as the

“real face” of American corruption. Interestingly, the White House admitted that the

Iranian missile tests were not a breach of the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement but were a

violation of “the spirit” of this agreement.

Given the close ties of Trump’s son-in-law to Israel and Trump’s strong pubic posture on

Israel, including his moving away from the US commitment to a “two-state” solution, it

was not surprising to see Israel move aggressively on expanding its settlements on

Palestinian territories.

Israel has also become more aggressive in asking states like the UK to stop funding

NGOs that it regards as “hostile” – including the NGO Breaking the Silence.

In the UN also, the Trump factor can already be felt on a number of issues. For instance,

the US opposed the appointment of former Palestinian premier Salam Fayyad as a special

envoy to Libya – who had been selected by the new UN Secretary General Gutteres. The

UN SG expressed his “deep regret” on this US move.

--- Dr Shireen M Mazari

Director General

6

AMERICAS

Domestic

On February 15, President Donald Trump lashed out at the US intelligence community and

media after reports emerged of contacts between members of his team and Russia.

Trump accused the National Security Agency (NSA) and FBI of giving out information illegally.

According to reports, top Trump aides were in constant communication with Russian officials

during the election campaign. Intelligence officials had previously said they believed Russia tried

to influence the vote in favour of Trump.

According to the BBC on February 15, leading members of the Republican Party called for

a wider investigation into former national security adviser Micheal Flynn’s links with

Russia.

Flynn resigned on February 13, 2017 over claims that he discussed sanctions with Russia before

Donald Trump assumed office on January 20, 2017. According to a White House spokesman

Trump knew days earlier there were problems with the Russia phone calls. Some senior

Republicans however have responded coldly to calls for an independent investigation. The

developments followed a New York Times report according to which phone records and

intercepted calls show members of Trump’s presidential campaign, as well as other members of

the Trump team, “had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials in the year

before the election”.

On February 14, authorities in California lifted an evacuation order for 180,000 residents

living below the Oroville dam as fear of spillage decreased.

Butte County officials allowed residents to return to their homes but told them to remain vigilant.

County homes were in danger of drowning after the 770ft high spillways of the Dam were found

damaged. Authorities have now managed to lower the water level in the dam. Sheriff Kory Honea

of the Butte County said the earlier evacuation order on February 12, 2017 had been changed to

an evacuation warning.

According to The Office of Government Ethics (OGE) on February 14, Senior White

House adviser Kellyanne Conway should be investigated over her promotion of Ivanka

Trump’s products.

The (OGE) said Conway violated ethics rules, by urging people to buy the president’s daughter’s

range on Fox News. Her comments prompted complaints from both Democrats and Republicans.

7

The OGE is an independent body. It has advised the White House to investigate and possibly

discipline Conway. The White House has so far supported Conway, who urged people to buy

Ivanka Trump’s clothes after retailer Nordstrom dropped her clothing line, citing a lack of sales.

On February 13, US national security adviser Michael T. Flynn resigned after reports

emerged that he had misled Vice President Mike Pence and other top White House officials

about his conversations with the Russian ambassador to the United States.

Flynn acknowledged providing “incomplete information” about a telephone call he had with the

Russian ambassador in December 2016 about American sanctions against Russia. He had

previously denied that he had any substantive conversations with Ambassador Sergey I. Kislyak,

and Mike Pence repeated that claim several times during televised interviews. According to a

former administration official the Justice Department had warned the White House in January

2017 that Flynn had not been honest about his conversations with the ambassador. The Justice

Department feared that Flynn could be vulnerable to blackmail by Moscow.

On February 13, a US judge rejected a request from two Native American tribes to halt

construction on the controversial Dakota Access oil pipeline.

The final stretch of the $3.8b pipeline is being built under a North Dakota reservoir. The Standing

Rock Sioux and Cheyenne River Sioux tribes have filed a lawsuit against the pipeline, saying it

endangers their drinking water. They also say the pipeline will damage sacred burial sites. Once

complete, the pipeline is expected to transport about 470,000 barrels of crude oil a day from North

Dakota to a terminal in Illinois, from where it can be shipped to refineries.

According to the Washington Post on February 11, US immigration authorities arrested

numerous undocumented immigrants in six states during a series of raids.

The raids are the first large-scale enforcement of President Trump’s January 25, 2017 order to

crack down on an estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States. According to

officials the raids targeted known criminals, but they also netted some immigrants without criminal

records. Trump’s executive order has broadened the scope of the Department of Homeland

Security allowing them to target those with minor offenses or no convictions at all. Trump has

vowed to deport roughly 3 million undocumented immigrants with criminal records. Immigration

agents raided homes and workplaces in Atlanta, Chicago, New York, the Los Angeles area, North

Carolina and South Carolina, netting hundreds of people. Gillian Christensen, a spokeswoman

for the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement

(ICE), said the raids were part of “routine” immigration enforcement actions. ICE dislikes the

term “raids,” and prefers instead to use the term “targeted enforcement actions.”

8

On February 9, a federal appeals panel rejected unanimously, President Trump’s bid to

reinstate his ban on travel into the United States from seven largely Muslim countries.

The decision was handed down by the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, in San

Francisco. It upheld a February 3, 2017 ruling by a federal district judge, James L. Robart, who

blocked major parts of the travel ban allowing thousands of foreigners to enter the country. In

what is being termed “a sweeping rebuke of the Trump Administration’s claim that the courts

have no role as a check on the president”, the three-judge panel, said that the ban did not advance

national security, and also showed “no evidence” that anyone from Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia,

Sudan, Syria and Yemen had committed terrorist acts in the United States. The ruling also rejected

Trump’s claim that courts are powerless to review a president’s national security assessments.

Judges have a crucial role to play in a constitutional democracy, the court said. “It is beyond

question,” the decision said, “that the federal judiciary retains the authority to adjudicate

constitutional challenges to executive action.” Earlier on February 6, the Justice Department

urged a federal appeals court to reinstate President Trump’s travel ban arguing that immediate

action was required to ensure the nation’s safety. The Administration’s brief was the latest in a

series of urgent pleas to the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, in San Francisco.

In its appeal, the Justice Department said Judge James Robart had overreached by “second

guessing” the President on a national security matter. It also argued that only the president could

decide who could enter or stay in the US. According to several surveys including those by Reuters

and Ipsos, the executive order restricting travel and immigration from seven Muslim-majority

countries has more supporters than opponents in the United States.

On February 8, Neil Gorsuch, Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, described the US

president’s Twitter attacks on a judge who suspended his travel ban as “demoralising” and

“disheartening.”

A federal appeals court in San Francisco will decide in coming days on whether US District Judge

James Robart acted properly in temporarily halting enforcement of Trump’s ban. A Republican

strategist hired by the White House to help guide Gorsuch’s nomination through the US Senate

said that Gorsuch, himself an appeals court judge, used those words when he met with Democratic

Senator Richard Blumenthal.

On February 7, Senate Republicans voted to silence Elizabeth Warren for reading out a

letter from the widow of Martin Luther King during a debate over Senator Jeff Sessions’

nomination for attorney general, eliciting furious response from Democrats.

Speaking on the Senate floor, Warren quoted from 30-year-old letter from Coretta Scott King

relating to Sessions’ failed judicial nomination in the 1980s. It was part of a barnstorming speech

by the Massachusetts senator against Sessions’ suitability for the post and attacking his poor

9

record on civil rights. Republican majority leader, Mitch McConnell, said Warren had broken

Senate rules that prohibit one member impugning the conduct of another. Senators then voted 49-

43 to uphold a ruling in McConnell’s favour.

On February 6 President Trump asserted that the media was playing down the terrorist

threat posed by the Islamic State.

Trump told American military personnel that journalists were reluctant to report on the militant

group’s attacks in Europe and had “their reasons” for failing to cover them. Trump initially did

not provide examples of a news media conspiracy to underplay terrorist attacks, seemingly

ignoring the vast amount of reporting on violent ISIS attacks. Later the White House released a

list of what it said were 78 attacks from September 2014 to December 2016 that were carried out

or inspired by the Islamic State. The White House said, “Most have not received the media

attention they deserved.” The list included the major attacks in Brussels, Paris, San Bernardino,

California; and Orlando, Florida that dominated the news for weeks. Other attacks in the list

included some lesser known to Americans. These attacks had received extensive local coverage,

like a shooting in Zvornik, Bosnia, in April 2015 in which one police officer was killed and two

others were wounded.

US stocks slipped on February 6, led by the energy sector as oil prices decreased and

investors anticipated the next set of major earnings reports.

The benchmark S&P 500 decreased considerably as investors sought further clarity on President

Donald Trump’s economic policies. US equities have rallied since Trump’s election; spurred by

hopes for fiscal stimulus, lower taxes and fewer regulations under the Republican-led federal

government.

On February 3, President Trump ordered reviews of major banking rules that were put in

place after the 2008 financial crisis.

Criticising the move, the Democrats said it lacked substance and aligned him with Wall Street

bankers. Though the order was short on specifics, financial markets embraced Trump’s signal that

looser banking regulation was coming and pushed bank stocks higher. The Dow Jones US Banks

stocks index closed up 2.6%. During a White House forum with US business leaders, including

JPMorgan Chase’s CEO Jamie Dimon, Trump said his Administration expects “to be cutting a lot

out of Dodd-Frank.”

According to the US department of State on February 3, some 60,000 visas were revoked

under President Donald Trump’s executive order temporarily halting immigration from

seven Muslim-majority countries.

10

The revocation means the government voided travel visas for people trying to enter the United

States but the visas could be restored later without a new application, said William Cocks, a

spokesman for consular affairs at the State Department.

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian on February 2, Myron Ebell who headed

Trump’s EPA transition team, said that the Environmental Protection Agency’s research,

reports and data would not be removed from its website, but climate education material

might be changed or “withdrawn”.

According to Ebell, President Trump will work towards the abolition of the Environmental

Protection Agency and any employees from the Obama era should be “very worried” by the

prospect of Scott Pruitt taking over the agency. Ebell also signaled that a review of fuel efficiency

standards for cars, rushed through by the departing Obama Administration, is likely to be

reopened despite its contribution to the US’s pledged emissions cuts in the Paris Agreement.

On February 2, the US House of Representatives voted to ease regulations that require

extended background checks for gun buyers with mental health issues.

The checks, introduced under the Obama Administration, are believed to affect an estimated

75,000 people. The bill now needs to be approved by the Senate and signed into law by President

Donald Trump. The House also voted on Obama-era rules and regulations on the environment.

The background-check rule was introduced to provide information on the gun-buying history of

people receiving benefits for mental disability.

International

On February 15, US Defence Secretary James Mattis told NATO members that

Washington would “moderate its commitment” to the alliance if they do not increase their

spending on defence.

Mattis’s comments echoed President Donald Trump’s demand that members raise their spending

to meet a target of 2% of their GDP. Only five of the 27 member countries currently do so. Earlier,

Mattis had hailed NATO as the “fundamental bedrock” of trans-Atlantic cooperation.

During a news conference with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu on February 15, US

President Donald Trump ended decades of US policy that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

should be resolved using a two-state solution.

11

This would be a dramatic shift from the stance of Trump’s predecessor President Obama who said

there was no alternative. Trump promised a “great” peace deal, but said both sides must

compromise. The Israelis and Palestinians have not had any substantive peace talks since 2014.

Trump also asked Netanyahu to delay settlement building for a while. Israel has approved

thousands of new homes in West Bank and East Jerusalem settlements since Trump took office in

January 2017.

Following a formal meeting between US President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime

Minister Justin Trudeau on February 13, the White House and the Prime Minister’s Office

issued a joint statement reaffirming the strong bonds between Canada and the US.

The “much-anticipated” meeting between the leaders helped assuage fears of Canadian

businesses wary of the prospect of a trade war. “No two countries share deeper or broader

relations than Canada and the United States,” the statement read, noting the “shared economic

interests,” including the $2 billion in trade that flows between them daily. The tone was very

different from that witnessed on the campaign trail, when Trump repeatedly attacked the North

American Free Trade Agreement governing trade relations between the US, Canada and Mexico.

After meeting Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on February 10, US President Donald

Trump said the alliance between the US and Japan was the “cornerstone of peace” in the

Pacific.

Trump said the US was committed to “the security of Japan.” PM Abe also emphasised the

importance of strengthening economic and trade relations. Trump had previously taken issue with

the US trade deficit with Japan, threatening tariffs on carmaker Toyota.

Reuters reported on February 9 that President Donald Trump’s proposed “wall” along the

US-Mexico border would be a series of fences and walls that would cost almost $21.6

billion, and take more than three years to construct.

Reuters was quoting an internal report of the US Department of Homeland Security. According to

the report the estimated price tag for the wall is much higher than a $12-billion figure cited by

Trump during his campaign and estimates as high as $15 billion from Republican House Speaker

Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Latin America

On February 14, the US imposed sanctions on the new vice president of Venezuela,

accusing him of involvement in international drug trafficking.

12

The order adds Tareck El Aissami to the US narcotics “kingpin” sanctions list “for playing a

significant role in international narcotics trafficking.” El Aissami, who was appointed in January

2017 by President Nicolas Maduro, dismissed the allegations as an “imperialist aggression.” He

said that “the truth is invincible”, and “that he saw “this miserable and infamous aggression as

a recognition” of his “status as an anti-imperialist revolutionary.”

On February 13 thousands of people in Mexico took to the streets to protest against Donald

Trump’s immigration policies and plan for a border wall.

Protestors in several Mexican cities, dressed in white, waved Mexican flags and anti-Trump

placards. Organisers said they wanted to send a message that Mexico was united against Trump.

They also criticised Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto for failing to tackle corruption and

reduce violence.

On February 7 Colombia’s second-largest rebel group, the National Liberation Army

(ELN), entered into formal peace talks with Colombian government negotiators.

The talks are aimed at ending more than five decades of armed conflict. The ELN and the

government first announced their intention to start formal peace talks at a news conference on

March 30, 2016. They had originally been expected to start in May 2016, but that did not

materialise. Later, the two sides said the negotiations would start in the Ecuadorean capital,

Quito, on October 27, 2016 but the talks did not take place.

---Amina Afzal

13

ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

On February 14, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its annual

Military Balance report that China is beginning to export its own weapon designs

including armed drones worldwide and the country is reaching ‘near-parity’ with the

West in terms of military technology.

The Report also noted that the total global military spending fell by 0.4% in 2016 compared to

2015, largely due to reductions in Middle East. However, China accounted for more than a third

of Asia’s total military spending in 2016. China’s air-to-air missiles had no Western equivalent

and the country had introduced a new type of short-range missile that only a handful of leading

aerospace nations are able to develop. Europe was one of the three regions in the world where

defence spending increased during 2015-2016.

On February 14, Yukiya Amano, Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency

(IAEA), stated that spent radioactive rods expelled from the world’s 440 nuclear power

plants can be safely disposed off with the help of a deep-earth geological facility

expected to open in Finland by 2022.

While talking to delegates on the final day of the World Government Summit in UAE, Amano

said that radioactive waste would be buried deep within shields of rock where it would remain

undisturbed for one million years to avoid human exposure. As it is difficult to deal with high

levels of waste burying it deep in the earth is a safe measure.

According to North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on February 13, the

country successfully completed the launch of a new ballistic missile, a first test after US

President Donald J. Trump assumed office.

KCNA described the new missile as medium-range ‘Pukguksong-2’ ballistic missile, capable of

carrying nuclear weapons. The missile’s name Pukguksong-2 means North Star or Polaris. The

test-launch of the missile took place under the supervision of North Korean Leader Kim Jong-

Un. KCNA said the missile was fired at a high angle to ensure the safety of neighbouring

countries. The missile travelled 500 kilometres towards Japan and landed off the coast of the

Korean peninsula. A solid fuel engine propelled the missile and it was an upgraded extended-

range version of the submarine-launched ballistic missile, KN-11 or Pukguksong-1, successfully

tested in August 2016. The North’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper also showed pictures of a missile

fired from a mobile launch vehicle. Jonathan McDowell, an expert at the Harvard Smithsonian

Centre for Astrophysics noted that North Korea’s successful launch of the missile is indeed a

significant advance by the country because large solid-fuel motors are difficult to use. The US,

South Korea and Japan also confirmed the test. While condemning the test, White House adviser

Stephen Miller said that the US would reinforce and strengthen its vital alliances in the Pacific

region as part of its strategy to deter the North Korean regime. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo

Abe called the launch “absolutely intolerable” and said North Korea must comply with UNSC

14

resolutions. North Korea conducted two nuclear tests and numerous missile-related tests in 2016

and is making steady progress in its weapons capabilities.

On February 11, India successfully tested a high-altitude interceptor missile, achieving a

significant milestone in the direction of developing a two-layered Ballistic Missile

Defence (BMD) system.

The interceptor missile was launched from Abdul Kalam Island off Odisha coast. According to

India’s Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), the exo-atmospheric interceptor

missile, also known as Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV), directly hit the target missile at an

altitude of 97 kilometres. The target was developed for mimicking a hostile ballistic missile

approaching from more than 2000 kilometres away. The DRDO said that India has crossed an

important milestone in building its overall capability towards enhanced security against

incoming ballistic missile threats. India’s BMD system is being designed to track and destroy

hostile missiles both inside (endo) and outside (exo) the earth’s atmosphere. However, India has

not yet tested its developing BMD system in an integrated mode, using both endo and exo

interceptor missiles.

On February 10, Israel Aerospace Industries successfully test-fired the Barak-8 surface-

to-surface missile at sea.

Barak-8 is operated by the Israeli armed forces to defend against airborne threats including

aircraft, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles, anti-ship missiles and cruise missiles. The

weapon system is also able to engage multiple targets at a time. Barak-8 weighs 600 pounds and

has an operational range of 85 kilometres. Israel, India and Azerbaijan are currently the only

operators of the weapon system. Germany and Poland have also expressed their interest in

acquiring the weapon.

According to United Press International (UPI) on February 10, the US Air Force test-

fired an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from the

Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.

US Air Force officials said that the operational launch of the missile was conducted to verify the

missile’s capability as a nuclear deterrent. The Minuteman III, equipped with a re-entry vehicle,

travelled approximately 4,200 miles to a test range near Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands

in the Pacific Ocean. The air force officials gave no more information regarding the test.

However, defence experts believe that given the various missile tests and emanating threats from

North Korea, the Minuteman launch may have been a message to the country that the US can

strike it at short notice. Minuteman III is the US military’s only land-based ICBM designed

during the 1950s and introduced in 1962 as a counter-attack deterrent against the Soviet Union.

The missile has an approximate range of 8,100 miles, a speed of 15,000 miles per hour, and can

carry up to three warheads.

15

On February 9, a blast occurred in the machine room of the Flamanville nuclear power

plant located on France's northwest coast.

According to the officials at the nuclear power plant, there was no nuclear risk following the

blast in the machine room of the Flamanville. However, five people were slightly injured after

inhaling smoke from a fire that broke out after the explosion. Olivier Marmion, a senior regional

official stated, "It is a significant technical event but it is not a nuclear accident." The two

nuclear reactors of the Flamanville nuclear power plant are 1,300 MW and they were built

during the 1980s.

According to Reuters on February 9, US President Donald Trump called the New

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), a bad deal for the US.

Two US officials stated that in his first call as President, Trump told Russian President Vladimir

Putin that the treaty was one of several bad deals negotiated by the previous administration.

Trump said that the Treaty only favoured Russia. The two officials also mentioned that during

the call when Putin raised the possibility of extending the Treaty, Trump paused to ask his aides

what the Treaty was. Sean Spicer, White House spokesman, said that Trump knew what the New

START treaty was but had turned to his aides for an opinion during the call with Putin. The

White House did not make any further comments on the details of the call. The New START

treaty obligates both Russia and the US to reduce their deployed strategic nuclear warheads to

no more than 1,550 by February 2018. Both countries signed the Treaty on April 8, 2010, which

entered into force on February 5, 2011. According to Daryl Kimball, the executive director of

the Arms Control Association, Trump appears to be clueless about the value of this key nuclear

risk reduction treaty and the unique dangers of nuclear weapons. US Secretary of State Rex

Tillerson also supported the Treaty during his Senate confirmation hearings.

On February 8, Iran conducted a ballistic missile test from a site near Semnan, east of

Tehran, where it had previously conducted a test on January 29, 2017.

On February 4, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched military drills to test

the country’s missiles and radar systems in defiance of newly imposed sanctions by the

US.

On February 3, the US imposed new sanctions on companies and individuals suspected of

involvement in Iran’s missile programme.

The imposed sanctions targeted 12 companies and 13 individuals related to Iran’s missile

programme, including Chinese firms suspected of supplying parts used in Iran’s missile

development programme. These sanctions came in response to Iran’s missile test on January 29,

2017, and the country’s alleged support to Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Trump Administration

believes that the tested missile was nuclear capable. US officials said that the missile test was

inconsistent with UN Security Council Resolution 2231 which calls on Iran not to develop or test

16

missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons but does not ban such activity outright. On the

contrary, Iran confirmed testing a ballistic missile but said that its missile test did not violate the

resolution. Hours after the imposition of sanctions, US Defence Secretary James Mattis called

Iran the world’s biggest state sponsor of “terrorism”. According to the Trump Administration

the sanctions are an initial step and a broader review of Iran’s policy was under way. According

to sanctions experts, the new set of sanctions do not re-impose any sanctions that were lifted as a

result of Iran’s nuclear agreement and their impact would be more symbolic than practical.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry denounced the sanctions as illegal and said it would impose legal

restrictions on American individuals and entities helping regional terrorist groups. Apart from

Iran, China also lodged a protest with the US over the country’s sanctioning of Iran, including

some Chinese companies and individuals too. Iran also held a military exercise on February 4,

2017, and launched a medium-range surface-to-air ballistic missile on February 8, 2017 in

defiance of the newly imposed sanctions. According to IRGC, the aim of the military exercise in

Semnan province and launching a ballistic missile was to showcase Iran’s power.

On February 3, US Defence Secretary, James Mattis, warned North Korea of an

‘effective and overwhelming’ response if Pyongyang used nuclear weapons against the

US or its allies.

During his first official overseas visit to South Korea, Mattis said, “Any attack on the United

States, or our allies, will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons would be met with a

response that would be effective and overwhelming.” He added, “America’s commitments to

defending our allies and to upholding our extended deterrence guarantees remain ironclad.”

Mattis’ remarks came amid growing concerns that North Korea may test an intercontinental

ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of targeting the US. The visit of the US Defence Secretary

reaffirmed the Trump Administration’s commitment to the longstanding cooperation between the

two countries. During the visit Mattis also discussed the timetable for the deployment of

Terminal High-Altitude Area Defence system (THAAD) in South Korea.

--- Moiz Khan

17

CHINA & EAST ASIA

China

On February 4, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang criticised US

President Donald Trump over his recent pledge of support for Japan’s overlapping

territorial claims with China.

Shuang said that China has “indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and

their adjacent waters,” adding that “Beijing remains firmly committed to upholding its

territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.” The development came after US

President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe issued a joint statement in

which they affirmed that “Article V of the US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security

covers the disputed Senkaku Islands,” referred to in China as Diaoyu. The Chinese spokesman,

however, expressed Beijing’s “grave” concern over and “firm” opposition to the joint statement,

underlining that the islands are part of China’s “inherent territory.”

During his visit to Australia on February 7, Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi met his

Australian counterpart Julia Bishop and pledged stronger relations with Australia.

Wang also warned that the escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington under US

President Donald Trump would have no winner. During a visit to Canberra, Wang Yi advised

the US to “brush up” on its South China Sea history, after Washington said it would push back

against Beijing’s claims to territories in the disputed waterway.

During a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on February 10, US President Donald

Trump agreed to honour the “One China” policy.

Trump angered Beijing in December 2016 by talking to the president of Taiwan and saying the

US did not have to stick to the policy, under which Washington acknowledges the Chinese

position that there is only one China and Taiwan is part of it. Under the One China policy, the

US recognises and has formal ties with China rather than Taiwan.

On February 14, Chinese authorities shot dead three knife-wielding assailants who killed five

people in China’s Xinjiang region.

The Chinese authorities further described the assailants as “thugs” and said that “social order”

had been restored in the area. Beijing often accuses what it describes as exiled Uighur separatist

groups of planning attacks in the region. Meanwhile, foreign-based Uighurs claim Beijing is

cracking down on the ethnic minority. Members of the Uighur community in China are

predominantly Muslim and speak Turkish, which is distinct from the Chinese-speaking Han

national majority.

18

Japan

On February 10, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and President Donald Trump met at

the White House. Following the meeting, President Trump described Japan as “an important

and steadfast ally”, adding that Washington was committed to bringing bilateral ties even

closer.

President Trump also said the two nations would continue to build up defensive capabilities in

the Pacific, promoting shared interests, including freedom of navigation. Meanwhile, a joint US-

Japanese statement said the US commitment to defend Japan through nuclear and conventional

military capabilities is unwavering. The two sides also reaffirmed the importance of both

deepening their trade and investment relations and of their continued efforts in promoting trade,

economic growth, and high standards throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Trump has previously

criticised his country’s bilateral security relationship with Japan while asking Japan to

undertake more financial burden sharing.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

19

EUROPE

BBC reported on February 15 that a new police unit in Hungary, launched to reinforce

patrols along the 175km border fence with Serbia, is struggling to find suitable candidates

despite a massive recruitment drive.

Many applicants fail the psychology test, one of several designed to weed out inappropriate

applicants. Visible tattoos were another criterion for rejection. Xenophobia is at record levels in

Hungary, after two years of anti-migrant rhetoric from the conservative Fidesz government. Work

is underway on a second, electronic fence parallel to the first, designed to prevent illegal entry.

Hungary now accepts only 10 applicants for asylum a day from Serbia, where up to 7,000 asylum

seekers are waiting for the chance to move on to western Europe. Under the new legislation, all

asylum seekers will be kept in detention while their applications are being considered. This is

being done to prevent them from absconding into Austria.

On February 15, Russia denied violating a Cold War-era missiles treaty, following

accusations by officials in the Trump Administration.

A Kremlin spokesperson asserted that Russia continued to uphold its international commitments.

The US State Department has made no official comment. The alleged deployment will be discussed

during a NATO meeting in Brussels. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he would not

comment on intelligence reports but added that any non-compliance from Russia on the arms

control treaty would be a “serious concern for the alliance”.

According to the NY Times on February 14, Russia has secretly deployed a new cruise

missile that American officials say violates a landmark arms control treaty.

The deployment poses a major test for President Trump as his Administration is facing a crisis

over its ties to Moscow. The deployment also comes as the Trump Administration is struggling to

fill key policy positions including a replacement for Michael T. Flynn. The ground-launched cruise

missile at the centre of US concerns is one that the Obama Administration said in 2014 had been

tested in violation of a 1987 treaty that bans American and Russian intermediate-range missiles

based on land.

On February 13, General Motors Co and French automaker PSA Group said they are in

talks that could result in PSA buying GM’s European auto operations.

PSA owns Peugeot, Citroen and DS brands. Acquiring GM’s Opel and Vauxhall brands would

give it a 16.3% share of the European passenger car market, pushing it into second place in the

region, ahead of French rival Renault SA and behind Germany’s Volkswagen AG. Any deal would

20

have to overcome financial, industrial and political obstacles. Germany’s industrial union IG

Metall warned that if the companies were discussing the sale of Opel without the union’s

involvement, it would be an “an unprecedented breach of all German and European co-

determination rights.” German Economy Minister Brigitte Zypries said it was totally unacceptable

that talks took place on French carmaker PSA Group buying GM’s European Opel unit without

consulting German works councils or local government.

The Guardian reported on February 14 that the standoff between Greece and its creditors

had escalated.

The setback came as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ coalition said it would not agree to additional

austerity beyond the cuts the country had already agreed to administer under its third, EU-led

bailout programme. The embattled Athens government has vowed it will not give in to demands

for further cuts as data showed the country’s economy unexpectedly contracting. Thousands of

protesting farmers rallied in Athens over increasing costs and unpopular reforms as the Hellenic

statistical authority revealed that Greek GDP shrank by 0.4% in the last three months of 2016. On

February 13, 2017 the European Commission announced that Greece was on course to achieving

a surplus on its budget of 2.3% after exceeding its 2016 fiscal targets “significantly”.

On February 13, the Swedish government defended its decision to have its officials wear

headscarves during a trip to Iran.

The government said that failing to do so would have broken the law. Trade Minister Ann Linde

led a business team to Tehran and faced criticism for wearing a headscarf, or hijab. A prominent

Iranian women’s rights activist and Swedish politicians have criticised the decision. “It is ruinous

to what is called a feminist foreign policy” said Liberal party chief Jan Bjorklund, who said Iran

oppressed women through legislation. The Swedish government should have requested that female

members of the delegation should not have been required to wear a headscarf, he said, and that if

the request were not granted any trade agreements should have been signed in Sweden or a third

country.

On February 12, Switzerland voted to relax the country’s strict citizenship rules, making it

easier for third-generation immigrants to become Swiss.

Being born in Switzerland does not guarantee citizenship. Non-Swiss residents have to wait 12

years before they are able to apply. Expensive tests and government interviews are also required.

According to initial projections 59% of Swiss voters agreed that rules should be simplified. Under

the new proposal third-generation immigrants, who are born in Switzerland and whose parents

and grandparents lived permanently in Switzerland will be exempted from interviews and tests

21

during the naturalisation process. Supporters of the plan argue that it is ridiculous to ask people

who were born and have lived all their lives in Switzerland to prove that they are integrated.

According to Reuters on February 11, European Commission President Jean-Claude

Juncker expressed fear that Britain would divide the EU’s remaining 27 members by

making different promises to each country during its Brexit negotiations.

“The other EU 27 don’t know it yet, but the Brits know very well how they can tackle this,” he

said. “They could promise country A this, country B that and country C something else and the

end game is that there is not a united European front.” According to reports Juncker also said he

would not seek a second term as European Commission President when his five-year term expires

in 2019.

On February 8, Russia’s main opposition leader, Alexei Navalny, was found guilty of

embezzlement and handed a five-year suspended sentence.

The sentence bars Navalny from running for president in 2018 against Vladimir Putin. Navalny

denies the charges and has vowed to take part in the race regardless. It was not clear if this was

legally possible. The conviction came during a retrial after the European Court of Human Rights

ruled the first trial to be unfair. The court in the provincial city of Kirov found Navalny guilty of

embezzlement in relation to a timber company called Kirovles, for which he was also handed an

$8,500 fine.

On February 6 an EU review revealed multiple failings by the UK in applying

environmental law.

On the same day the Commission escalated its action against Britain for breaching air pollution

limits. Britain has been in breach of EU nitrogen dioxide (NO2) limits since 2010. London overshot

its annual air pollution limit for 2017 during the first five days. According to the Guardian a

“reasoned opinion” was sent on February 15, 2017 to the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.

If a satisfactory response is not received within two months, a case at the European court could

follow.

On February 3, EU leaders meeting in Malta agreed on a plan to reduce the flow of migrants

from Libya.

Libya’s UN-backed government will receive $215m, including funding to reinforce its coastguard.

The EU hopes Libya will be better able to disrupt people-smuggling networks and turn back

migrant boats. Human rights groups have criticised the EU’s strategy. Moreover the UN-backed

22

government in Libya has limited control over its own territory. Earlier, on February 2, the Italian

coastguard said it rescued more than 1,750 migrants in the Mediterranean within 24 hours.

On February 3, a French soldier guarding the Louvre in Paris shot a man who tried to attack

a security patrol with a machete.

According to the police he shouted “Allahu Akbar.” The man, who tried to gain entry to the

Louvre’s shopping centre, was shot in the abdomen and seriously injured. He is an Egyptian man

who arrived in France in January 2017. After the incident President Francois Hollande said the

situation was under control but the “threat of terrorism is here to stay.”

On February 4, the Romanian government said it would withdraw a controversial decree

that would have decriminalised some corruption offences.

On February 2 the Romanian capital, Bucharest, witnessed one of its largest ever anti-

government protests after a decree was passed that could free dozens of officials jailed for

corruption.

A crowd of at least 150,000 was reported outside government offices on February 1, 2017 and

rallies took place in other towns and cities. The leftist government, led by Prime Minister Sorin

Grindeanu of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), only returned to power in December when

protests forced its previous leader from power in October 2015.

---Amina Afzal

23

MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Bahrain

On February 12, Turkey and Bahrain signed an agreement on bilateral cooperation in the

arms industry.

Manama was the first destination in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s tour of the Persian Gulf

states. Turkish Defence Minister, Fikri Isik and his Bahraini counterpart, Mohammed bin

Abdullah Al Khalifah, inked the memorandum of understanding in the presence of Erdogan and

Bahrain’s monarch Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah. According to press reports, Ankara and Manama

also signed a number of other agreements concerning visa fee exemptions and education. Erdogan

also expressed his wish for Turkey and Bahrain to work together for the stability, peace, and future

of the region. Erdogan and his delegation will also travel to Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The focus

of Erdogan’s tour is on regional, political, security and economic issues. According to Qatar’s

official news agency, regional issues on the tour’s agenda also include the situation in Syria and

Iraq.

Egypt

Following a meeting in Cairo on February 13, Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi,

and his Lebanese counterpart, Michel Aoun attended a joint press conference, during which

Sisi said that the two sides had agreed to cooperate against terrorism.

Sisi said that Egypt would help boost the capabilities of the Lebanese army and security forces to

safeguard Lebanon, which he described as “a unique model of coexistence in the region.”

Lebanon is suffering from the spill over of militancy in neighbouring Syria. Takfiri terrorists have

been active in Lebanese areas situated close to the Syrian border. In Egypt, militants have been

active in the restive Sinai Peninsula over the past years, conducting attacks against the country’s

military and security forces. Aoun, who is on his first visit to Cairo since his election in October

2016, praised Egypt’s role as a unifying element in the Arab world, saying that Cairo could

facilitate the settlement of disputes in crisis-hit countries like Syria.

Dawn reported on February 12 that Daesh claims to have executed five men it accuses of

spying for the Egyptian army battling terrorists in the Sinai Peninsula.

In a series of photos published on February 10, 2017, five men presented as ‘spies’ are seen lying

face down on the ground before a militant shoots them with an assault rifle. Militants have killed

hundreds of soldiers and policemen since the military overthrew Mohamed Morsi in 2013 and

launched a crackdown on his supporters. The crackdown destroyed the Islamist movement and

killed hundreds of Morsi’s followers, resulting in an insurgency that has killed hundreds of security

personnel. Most of the attacks have taken place in the Sinai Peninsula, which borders Israel and

the Gaza Strip, but attacks have also been carried out in other areas including Cairo.

24

Iran

On February 7, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismissed the US

decision to put Iran on notice over its missile tests and called President Donald Trump the

‘real face’ of American corruption.

In his first speech since Trump’s inauguration, Khamenei called on Iranians to take part in

demonstrations against American ‘threats’ on February 10, 2017, the anniversary of Iran’s 1979

Islamic revolution. Trump had responded to the January 29, 2017 Iranian missile test by saying

‘Iran is playing with fire’ and imposed fresh sanctions on both individuals and entities, some of

them linked to Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards. According to the White House the missile test

was not a direct breach of Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with six world powers but it ‘violates

the spirit’ of the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, said Tehran would not

renegotiate the nuclear deal that Trump consistently criticises as being a gift to Iran.

Israel

Addressing a pro-settlement conference held in East Jerusalem al-Quds on February 13,

Israeli President Reuven Rivlin said he supports the full annexation of occupied West

Bank.

Rivlin also said that if Israel annexes the rest of the West Bank, it must give all Palestinians living

there full Israeli citizenship. Israel’s Public Security Minister, Gilad Erdan added that none of the

members of Netanyahu’s inner circle believe that a Palestinian state should be created over the

next few years. The presence and continued expansion of Israeli settlements in Occupied Palestine

has created a major obstacle for efforts aimed at establishing peace in the Middle East. Although

Netanyahu has never openly voiced opposition to the two-state solution, Palestinians argue that

Tel Aviv’s constant settlement activities prove that he is not committed to it.

On February 12, the Israeli Ministerial Committee for Legislation endorsed a draft law

aimed at silencing the Muslim call to prayer.

A statement released by the committee said the “bill for prevention of noise from public address

systems in houses of prayer” had been “passed” without giving further information. The Israeli

parliament will now discuss the draft legislation. If passed, it will be returned to the committee

for a second and third reading. Despite the bill making no mention of any specific religion, it has

become known as the “muezzin bill or law” as it blocks the traditional Muslim call to prayer.

PressTv reported on February 9 that Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu

summoned the Belgian ambassador to Israel over a meeting of Prime Minister Charles

Michel of Belgium with two prominent rights groups critical of Tel Aviv.

25

Netanyahu ordered a formal protest to be handed over to the Belgian ambassador after Michel,

during his visit to the Occupied territories, met the heads of Breaking the Silence and B’Tselem

rights groups. A statement from Netanyahu’s office said, “The government of Belgium needs to

decide if it wants to change direction or continue with its anti-Israel path.” Breaking the Silence

collects testimonies from former Israeli troops with regard to rights violations they witness in the

Palestinian territories. Michel discussed Israel’s policies in the West Bank with the two groups.

The meeting came a day after Michel met Netanyahu, during which the Israeli premier urged his

Belgian counterpart not to fund organisations opposed to Tel Aviv’s policies. In related news, on

February 6, during his visit to Britain, Netanyahu asked British Prime Minister Theresa May to

stop funding what he called NGOs “hostile to Israel” including Breaking the Silence. According

to Netanyahu, May plans to conduct a “re-examination” of her country’s approach to funding

NGOs.

On February 7, Israel passed a controversial law retroactively legalising 3,800 settler

homes built on private Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank.

According to settlement watchdog, Peace Now, the law legalises homes in both the settlements

and some 53 outposts, which have been built without official authorisation. Under the law, the

original Palestinian landowners will be financially compensated or given alternative land. The

new law comes amid an escalation in settlement activity in 2017. Israeli opposition leader

Yitzhak Herzog denounced the measure as being “an acute danger to Israel” which could lead

to prosecution at the International Criminal Court (ICC) at The Hague. The ICC is currently

examining whether Israeli settlements should be subject to a full investigation. Israel’s attorney

general has said the law is unconstitutional and that he will not defend it in the Supreme Court.

Britain, France, the UN and Jordan criticised the new law. Earlier, on February 2, US President

Donald Trump unexpectedly warned Israel that constructing new settlements “may not be

helpful” to Middle East peace efforts. More than 600,000 Jews live in about 140 settlements

built since Israel’s 1967 occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The settlements are

considered illegal under international law. Palestinians say the new legislation negates peace

and their chances of creating a state.

Libya

On February 13, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed his “deep” regret over

the US’ opposition to the designation of former Palestinian premier Salam Fayyad as the

special envoy to Libya.

On February 10, the US blocked the appointment of Salam Fayyad to lead the UN political

mission in Libya, saying it was acting to support its ally Israel.

26

Fayyad served as the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority from 2007 to 2013. Guterres had

proposed Fayyad to the UNSC to replace Martin Kobler of Germany. The UN chief needs the

unanimous support of all 15 members of the Council for the appointment of special envoys to

conflict regions. However, US Ambassador Nikki Haley blocked the designation by voting against

Fayyad saying that the Trump Administration ‘was disappointed’ to see that Guterres had sent a

letter to the UNSC indicating his intention to appoint Salam Fayyad as the next UN special

representative to Libya. She further said, “For too long the UN has been unfairly biased in favour

of the Palestinian Authority to the detriment of our allies in Israel.” Palestine is a non-member

observer state at the UN and its independence has been recognised by 137 of the 193 UN member

nations. But Haley said the US doesn’t currently recognise a Palestinian state nor did it support

the signal Fayyad’s appointment would send within the UN. According to UN diplomats, Fayyad

is well respected for his work in reforming the Palestinian Authority and stimulating its economy.

He also had the support of 14 other UNSC members to succeed Martin Kobler. At the annual

World Government Summit in Dubai, Guterres said that he did not see “any reason” for the US

opposition to the appointment of Fayyad, whom he described as “the right person for the right job

at the right moment.”

Palestine

On February 6, Israel hit a number of Hamas positions in Gaza after a rocket fired from

the Palestinian enclave hit a border area.

According to Palestinian sources, Israeli tank fire targeted two Hamas posts while air strikes hit

targets in northern Gaza. According to initial reports, a projectile launched from the Gaza Strip

landed in an open area causing no injuries or major damage. Israeli Army spokesman Peter

Lerner said, “The Army will not tolerate rocket fire towards civilians and will continue to ensure

security and stability in the region.” Since the 2014 conflict, Israel and Hamas have observed a

fragile ceasefire along the closed border. Missiles and rockets are occasionally fired at Israel

but are often attributed to other Islamist groups inside Gaza. The Israeli army usually retaliates

by striking Hamas’ positions, which it considers responsible for the territory.

Saudi Arabia

According to Saudi Press Agency (SPA) on February 5, a Saudi warship targeted by

Yemeni rebel ‘suicide’ boats returned to its home port in Jeddah.

The frigate was attacked by the Houthi militia while on patrol in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia said

that two sailors were killed and three wounded when battleship Al-Madinah was hit by a Yemeni

rebel boat strike off the Red Sea port of Hodeida. The Houthi rebels said they hit the ship with a

guided missile. The US has since deployed the USS Cole to the Bab Al-Mandab strait connecting

27

the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Seventeen US military personnel were killed aboard the USS

Cole in an attack in the Yemeni port city of Aden in October 2000 claimed by Al Qaeda. A Saudi-

led Arab coalition launched a military campaign against the Houthi rebels in March 2015 as the

insurgents closed in on President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi in Aden, forcing him into exile.

According to the World Health Organisation, more than 7,400 Yemenis, most of them civilians,

have since been killed. At least 113 Saudis have been killed in skirmishes or rocket strikes along

the border with Yemen since the coalition campaign started.

Syria

On February 9, Russia denounced an Amnesty International report claiming that Syrian

military police hanged as many as 13,000 people over the course of five years.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, told journalists during a briefing in

Moscow that the report was “a false story that does not correspond to reality and is a fake.” She

further said, “This is yet another targeted act of provocation aimed at pouring oil on the fire of

the dying-down conflict within Syria.” The Russian spokeswoman criticised Amnesty for

publishing figures that she said were “the result of mathematical calculations on the basis of

testimony of unnamed people.” The Syrian Justice Ministry also rejected the account of mass

hangings at Saydnaya prison near Damascus between 2011 and 2015 as ‘bogus and false’,

saying such claims were meant to ruin the government’s reputation in the international

community. It added that such allegations come in the face of recent gains by the Syrian army

and allied popular defence groups in battles against foreign-sponsored Takfiri terrorists. The

statement further emphasised that based on Syrian law, death sentences are handed only after

judicial trials run through several degrees of litigation.

In a meeting with a European delegation on February 6, Syrian President Basher al-Assad

criticised European governments for adopting unrealistic and wrong policies toward Syria

over the past years.

While addressing a group of parliamentarians from Belgium, President Assad said Europeans

had erroneously decided to support anti-government militants in Syria when the crisis erupted in

Syria. He also said the approach resulted in Europe’s isolation from international efforts meant

to resolve the crisis and had also resulted in the EU losing its traditional role and position in the

world of diplomacy. Filip Dewinter, Member of Belgium’s Parliament and head of the visiting

delegation, said that Syria’s decisive victory in 2016 against militants in Aleppo had shifted the

balance of power in the war against terrorism, adding that many politicians in Europe had

started to change their position on the Syrian conflict. Other members of the delegation also

appreciated Syria’s increasing success in battling terrorism, saying eliminating the menace of

terror in Syria would definitely curb its spread to the entire world.

28

On February 4, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, opposed a

proposed initiative to create ‘safe zones’ in Syria for refugees, saying the country was

‘not the right place’ for the initiative.

Grandi cited terrorism and the fragmentation of Syria and its warring parties as obstacles to

creating safe zones in the country. US President Donald Trump floated the idea of safe zones as

a substitute for resettling refugees in the US and elsewhere around the globe. On February 2,

2017, Trump explored schemes with Jordanian King Abdullah II during a meeting in

Washington, DC. Jordan is host to some 650,000 Syrian refugees. Turkey and Lebanon are also

pushing for safe zones across their borders. The two countries host 3.75 million refugees

between them. Damascus expressed its deep concern over the various proposals, saying they

would have to be set up in coordination with the Syrian government. Trump pushed the

international refugee system into crisis when he issued an executive order banning refugees from

entering the US for 120 days. Grandi called the executive order a ‘dangerous weakening’ of the

established international norms to protect refugees.

Turkey

On February 9, new CIA Chief Mike Pompeo arrived in Ankara for talks with Turkish

officials, on his first foreign visit since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.

Turkey announced on February 8 that US President Donald Trump and Turkey’s Recep

Tayyip Erdogan have agreed to cooperate in the fight against militants in Syria.

During a telephonic conversation, the Presidents discussed acting together in Turkey’s battle to

capture the Syrian town of Al Bab from Daesh and taking the main Daesh stronghold of Raqqa.

Turkey is a member of the US-led coalition against Daesh. The country launched a unilateral

incursion into Syria in August 2016, backing Syrian rebels to clear its border from Daesh fighters

and also pushing back Syrian Kurdish militia. The battle for Al Bab is the toughest yet, with the

army suffering increasing casualties and Erdogan complaining that Ankara has been left alone.

According to analysts, Erdogan has high expectations of the Trump Administration after

expressing disappointment in the Obama Administration. Turkey was particularly enraged by US

support for Syrian Kurdish militia, which Washington regards as the most effective group in the

fight against Daesh. Turkey regards the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed

wing, the Kurdish Peoples Protection Units (YPG), as terror groups and branches of the outlawed

Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Erdogan also said Turkey expected Washington to stand by

Ankara in the fight against the US-based preacher Fethullah Gulen, who is accused of staging the

failed coup in Turkey. Pompeo arrived in Ankara to discuss the Syria conflict, in particular

Turkey’s operation against Daesh in the town of Al-Bab and a possible plan to capture Raqqa.

29

UAE

BBC reported on February 13 that MPs in the Republic of Somaliland have agreed to allow

the UAE to set up a military base in the port of Berbera.

Somaliland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo told MPs that the military base would help

create jobs. During the parliamentary vote, 144 legislators supported the military base, two voted

against, two abstained. According to observers, the deal has proven controversial among

Somaliland’s neighbours in the Horn of Africa. The UAE already has a military facility at Eritrea’s

Assab port for use in a campaign against Yemeni rebels. It is part of a coalition that has fought

Houthi rebels and imposed a naval blockade on Yemen since 2015. The Horn of Africa is

strategically important for Gulf nations because of ongoing military operations in Yemen and in

the long term to protect their shipping interests in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Djibouti has

remained the regional hub for foreign military bases, but now faces competition from its next-door

neighbour. In Somaliland, the UAE has an alternative and less controversial location for a military

base than Eritrea, which is under UN sanctions. The Emiratis will also provide training and

equipment for Somaliland forces. Its port in Berbera is not solely for military use. Its expansion

could provide Somaliland with more robust economic opportunities, particularly targeting its

landlocked neighbour Ethiopia. However, as Somaliland is not internationally recognised, the

authorities will need to be wary of any legal complications that could arise.

Yemen

During a visit to the Saudi capital Riyadh, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called

for the ‘resurrection’ of peace talks between Yemen’s warring sides to end the suffering of

civilians.

Guterres was speaking at a joint press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister, Adel al-Jubeir

after talks with King Salman, Crown Prince and Interior Minister Mohammed bin Nayef, and

Deputy Crown Prince and Defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman. Guterres also urged the

conflicting sides in Yemen to ensure the unhindered delivery of relief aid to civilians. UN peace

envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed also attended the press briefing. He has been pushing for a

peace plan meant to pave the way for a political transition in the country. Seven ceasefires

brokered by the UN between government and rebel forces have failed, while UN-backed peace

talks have repeatedly broken down. The Houthi movement has been running Yemen’s affairs since

late 2014, when Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi resigned and fled to Riyadh. The UN Secretary-

General is on his first Middle East tour since he was sworn in on January 1, 2017. He also visited

the UAE, Oman, Qatar and Egypt.

On February 8, the UN appealed for $2.1 billion to provide much needed aid to millions

of people in Yemen, warning the country could soon face famine.

30

UN Humanitarian Aid Chief Stephen O’Brien warned that without international support, Yemeni

people might face the threat of famine in 2017. He also urged donors to sustain and increase

their support to the collective response. The appeal from UN agencies and other humanitarian

organisations aims to gather funds to help at least 12 million of the nearly 19 million people

expected to need assistance across Yemen in 2017. According to the UN, nearly 7,500 people

have been killed and more than 40,000 injured since the conflict escalated in 2015, while more

than two million people remain displaced inside Yemen. More than 10 million people need

immediate, life-saving aid, including more than two million children who are acutely

malnourished. In 2016, UN agencies and other partners provided aid to 5.6 million people in

Yemen. They hope to double that number in 2017.

---Muhammad Shoaib

31

SOUTH ASIA

Pakistan

External

On February 14, Pakistan summoned the Indian Deputy High Commissioner, J.P. Singh

in Islamabad over the killing of three Pakistani soldiers in a ceasefire violation by Indian

troops in the Bhimber sector of Azad Kashmir.

Pakistan urged the Indian side to respect the 2003 Ceasefire Understanding and investigate the

latest and other incidents of ceasefire violations. Earlier on February 8, Pakistan’s military

warned during a corps commanders’ conference that Indian ceasefire violations at the Line of

Control (LoC) were a potential threat to regional stability. Tensions between Pakistan and India

reached their highest level after Indian troops killed more than 100 demonstrators following the

outbreak of massive protests in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) in July 2016 against the Indian

rule. The situation further deteriorated in September 2016, after militants launched an attack at

the Uri army base in IOK, which killed at least 19 Indian soldiers.

On February 11, Pakistan’s Foreign Affairs Adviser, Sartaj Aziz said that Pakistan is

determined to counter growing threats to peace in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), mainly

from its nuclearisation started by India.

Aziz said the nuclearisation of the Indian Ocean had destabilised the region, adding that the

Indian Navy’s substantial expansion remains a cause of concern for Pakistan. India has seen a

phenomenal increase in its naval expenditure over the last decade including the development of

(SLBMs) and the acquisition of aircraft carriers and stealth frigates. There are also reports in

the Indian media that India has secretly commissioned into service its first nuclear powered

submarine INS Arihant. Pakistan’s Foreign Office said on February 9, 2017 that India’s nuclear

weapons build-up remains a threat to peace in the region and beyond.

On February 10, the multinational ‘Aman-17’ naval exercise commenced in the Arabian

Sea off Karachi with 37 countries, including Pakistan, taking part in the event.

According to media reports, nine countries, including the US, Russia, China, Britain, Australia,

Indonesia, Turkey, Sri Lanka and Japan, are participating with their naval assets. Commander

of the Pakistani fleet Vice Admiral, Arifullah Hussaini, said that the drills would help in

countering human trafficking, narcotics smuggling, and terrorism in the region. In his message,

PM Nawaz Sharif vowed freedom of navigation in the Arabian Sea. The Premier pointed out that

maritime security challenges in the Indian Ocean are both multidimensional and multifaceted.

He also called for increased cooperation between international navies for countering future

threats.

32

Dawn reported on February 10 citing White House officials that President Trump’s

Administration has no plan to ban Pakistani citizens from travelling to the United States

because Pakistan is providing the data required to vet a visitor.

The US, however, refused to issue a visa for Ghafoor Hyderi, the Deputy Chairman of Pakistan’s

Senate, who was to lead a two-member delegation in an UN-sponsored Inter-Parliamentary

Union conference scheduled to be held in New York on February 13 and 14, 2017. President

Donald Trump signed an executive order on January 27, 2017, banning citizens of seven

Muslim-majority countries from entering the US. While Pakistan’s name was not mentioned in

the list, there have been concerns that the country might be added in the next ban list.

According to Dawn on February 7, a report by various US think tanks and universities

noted that designating Pakistan as a state sponsor of terrorism is unwise in the first year

of a new administration, but should be kept as an option for the longer term.

The report also advised the Trump Administration to “state up front that it intends to review the

intelligence on Pakistani involvement in supporting terror much more critically than its

predecessors.” The report urges the Trump Administration to “avoid viewing and portraying

Pakistan as an ally and to deal with it as a non-ally, which has engaged in supporting the

Afghan Taliban.”

During a telephonic conversation between Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed

Bajwa and US Defence Secretary James Mattis on February 9, the two sides reaffirmed

their commitment toward the mutual goal of bringing peace to the region and discussed

measures aimed at achieving that goal.

The two sides also underlined the need for continued engagement at multiple levels between the

two countries. Secretary Mattis also appreciated the role the Pakistan Army has played in

combating terrorism.

Dawn reported on February 2 that India is blocking on ‘procedural grounds’ the

appointment of a Pakistani diplomat as the next secretary general of the South Asian

Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).

India has pointed out that the appointment of SAARC Secretary General should have been done

through its Council of Ministers meeting, which was not held in Islamabad last time as a result

of India and its allies abstaining from participation. Meanwhile, Pakistani officials accused

India of using ‘delaying tactics’ and pointed out that the approval of all SAARC member states

including India had already been acquired during the ministers meeting in 2016.

33

Pakistan

Internal

On February 13, at least 15 people including senior police officials were killed and 85

others injured after a suicide explosion outside the Punjab Assembly in Lahore during a

protest. The Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, faction of the Tehreek-i-Taliban, Pakistan (TTP) claimed

responsibility for the attack.

In a related development on February 15, Afghan Deputy Head of Mission, Syed Abdul

Nasir Yousafi was called in to the Foreign Office, by Additional Secretary (UN&EC),

Tasnim Aslam, to convey Pakistan’s “grave concern about the continuing terrorist attacks

on Pakistani soil by the terrorist outfit Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) operating from its

sanctuaries inside Afghanistan.”

Islamabad urged Kabul to take urgent measures to eliminate the terrorists and their sanctuaries,

financiers and handlers operating from its territory. Pakistan’s Foreign Office official also

shared an ‘aide-memoire’ with the Afghan deputy head of mission, which contained “details of

the terrorist attacks and supporting information”. This is not the first time Pakistani authorities

have raised their concerns about the Afghan territory being used against Pakistan. Earlier, in

October 2016, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser, General (retd) Janjua conveyed the

message to US ambassador to Pakistan, David Hale that Indian and Afghan intelligence

agencies are patronising terrorists groups to attack soft targets in the country.

Jamaat-ul-Ahrar has previously claimed responsibility for the bombing at a hospital in Quetta

that killed 74 people, mostly lawyers, in August 2016. The group is also responsible for the

Easter Day bombing in Lahore in 2016. Security in Pakistan has improved in recent years,

particularly after operation Zarb-e-Azb. However, incidents of violence in recent months have

again increased concerns for the country’s security establishment.

On February 15, two people were killed in a suicide blast in Peshawar after a suicide

bomber targeted the vehicle of civil judge Asif Jadoon.

This comes two days after a suicide attack that killed 15 people in Lahore. In another incident on

February 15, at least 5 people were killed following a suicide attack in Mohmand Agency in

FATA.

On February 2, Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman, Nafees Zakaria expressed concerns

over India’s drive to change the demography in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) through

settlement of non-Kashmiri Hindus saying, “It is a blatant violation of UN Security

Council Resolutions on the Kashmir dispute.”

Zakaria stressed that the BJP government aims to convert the Muslim majority in Jammu &

Kashmir into a minority. He also noted that India is terrorising the Kashmiri population through

perpetual ethnic cleansing and fake encounters. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns that

34

India is converting the Muslim majority region into a minority by dividing the population on

ethnic, religious and communal lines. Many have called the move as an Israel-style policy of

creating settlements in occupied territory. Media reports claim that the BJP government has

vowed to settle members of the Hindu community in Indian Occupied Kashmir who fled the

region following an armed revolt against Indian rule in 1989. There are also reports that India

aims to set up heavily secured colonies for Hindus in IOK.

India

On February 11, seven phase elections began in 11 districts of the Indian state of Uttar

Pradesh.

The vote is widely seen as a referendum on Modi’s controversial ban on high value currency

notes to purge the economy of untaxed income and corruption. The last phase of the Uttar

Pradesh elections is scheduled for March 8, 2017 and results from the state, along with elections

in Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur, will be announced on March 11 2017.

On February 14, four Indian soldiers and four militants were killed in gun battles in

Kashmir, in the second outbreak of violence between security forces and militants in

three days.

The violence began when security forces entered a village in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) on

February 10, 2017 in pursuit of suspected militants. According to media reports, seven militants

belonging to the Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) were holding a meeting when

the Indian army raided the place.

According to The News on February 10, a US commission that advises the US president

and Congress, has strongly criticised persecution of minorities, including Muslims and

Christians, in India.

The report titled ‘Constitutional and Legal Challenges Faced by Religious Minorities in India’

also recommended to the US government to link trade, aid and diplomatic interaction with India

to religious freedom and human rights. The report also noted that there are constitutional

provisions and laws in India that do not comply with international standards of freedom of

religion or belief, including Article 18 of the UN Declaration of Human Rights and Article 18 of

the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. However, India’s Ministry of External

Affairs, spokesman, Vikas Swarup, rejected the report saying, “The government does not see the

locus standi of a foreign entity like USCIRF to pronounce on the state of Indian citizens”

constitutionally protected rights.

On February 9, India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson, Vikas Swarup rejected

Pakistan’s demand for concrete evidence against Jamaatud Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz

35

Saeed, saying Islamabad has everything needed to prosecute the alleged mastermind of

the 2008 Mumbai attack.

Earlier on January 30, 2017, Pakistani authorities issued orders to place Jamaat-ud-Dawa

(JuD) chief, Hafiz Saeed under house arrest and asked India to produce “concrete evidence”

against him. India alleges that the entire conspiracy in Mumbai terror attack was planned in

Pakistan and said it required political will to prosecute the case. However, Pakistan rejected

India’s demand for a “credible crackdown” on militant groups following the detention of

Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed, saying it does not need New Delhi’s endorsement for its

actions.

According to Times of India on February 6, Indian Home Minister, Rajnath Singh said,

“Pakistan must refrain from demanding a plebiscite in Jammu & Kashmir,” adding that a

referendum must be conducted in Pakistan to check whether its citizens want to remain

there or want to merge with India.

Singh also stressed that India has always wanted peaceful relations, but Islamabad repeatedly

tries to disrupt the relationship. He added that there is an urgent need to stop terrorists

operating from Pakistani soil. The remarks came as Islamabad has increased pressure on New

Delhi to resolve the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan maintains that regional peace would remain

elusive without the resolution of the Kashmir dispute in accordance with UN resolutions.

On February 2, China blocked a US-led move at the UN to designate Jaish-e-Muhammad

(JeM) chief, Masood Azhar as a global terrorist.

The proposal was moved by the Obama Administration on January 19, 2017 and backed by the

UK and France. Beijing had earlier blocked India’s request in December 2016 to list Masood

Azhar as a global terrorist. New Delhi blames Azhar for masterminding the Pathankot airbase

attack in January 2016 and an attack on an Indian Army camp in Uri in September, 2016 that

left 19 Indian soldiers dead. China insists that it has placed a “technical hold” on Azhar’s

listing due to lack of consensus on the decision among the relevant parties.

On February 1, Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley announced a more than 10 %

increase in the country’s defence budget for the year 2017.

India has announced a ten percent boost to its defence budget for the second consecutive year as

the country aims to modernise its aging Soviet-era military hardware. India’s defence budget

was increased to 2.74 trillion Indian rupees (INR) compared to the previous fiscal year’s (2016-

17) budget of INR 2.49 trillion. According to Pakistan, India’s massive defence spending is

fuelling an arms race in the region.

36

Afghanistan

On February 11, Dawlat Waziri, a spokesman for the Afghan Defence Ministry, said his

country supports a call by the commander of US and international forces in Afghanistan

for more foreign troops to advise Afghan security forces.

The remarks came after US Army General, John Nicholson told the Senate Armed Services

Committee in Washington on February 9, 2017 that there was “a shortfall of a few thousand”

troops in the advisory mission. Reacting to the possibility of more foreign troops in Afghanistan,

Taliban spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid threatened that it would “be nothing more than

suffering and more casualties.” Meanwhile Nicholson called for a “holistic review” of the

relationship with Pakistan and said that the US concerns about Pakistan were at the top of his

list of priorities to address with the Trump Administration. He also admitted before the Senate

Armed Services Committee that Pakistan’s strong ties with China and its increasing ties with

Russia were a cause of concern for Washington.

On February 7, at least 20 people were killed in a bomb blast outside the Supreme Court

in Kabul.

There was no claim for the attack, which follows a number of deadly bombings by the Taliban

and other militants in recent months. On the same day, a senior district official in Afghanistan’s

Farah province was killed in a bombing claimed by the Afghan Taliban.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

37

UNITED NATIONS

On February 12, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated that

Islamophobia in parts of the world is fuelling terrorism.

Guterres said that the expression of Islamophobic feelings, policies and hate speeches in some

countries was fuelling terrorism. These Islamophobic feelings are sometimes exploited by Daesh

to make and spread its own propaganda. Guterres also warned that fighting terrorism in Syria

might fail if an inclusive political solution was not found for the Syrian people.

On February 8, Joseph Contreras, spokesperson for United Nations Assistance Mission in

Somalia (UNSOM), congratulated former Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo

on his election as Somalia’s new President and assured him that the UN is ready to assist

him in addressing the various challenges faced by Somalia.

Contreras said, “We are looking forward to work with him and his Government in tackling many

economic, political, security and humanitarian challenges facing Somalia.” He also stated that

the election of the new president of Somalia was a historic milestone in the country’s emergence

from years of chaos and civil war. The new president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, was

declared the winner after two rounds of voting by the Somali Parliament in the capital,

Mogadishu, on February 8, 2017. The runner-up candidate, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, chose to

withdraw from a third and final round of voting. Joseph Contreras also thanked the outgoing

President and his government for their achievements over the past four years.

On February 6, the United Nations expressed its deep concern over two million people in

the Syrian city of Aleppo who have been without water for almost a month.

The UN spokesperson stated that an estimated 1.8 million people in Aleppo city and rural

eastern Aleppo have been cut off from their main source of water, which is under the control of

Daesh. He mentioned that the UN continues to respond to the water crisis by supplying fuel to

operate 100 deep wells, and is also supporting emergency water trucking, reaching nearly one

million people in need of water assistance. The UN is also working closely with its partners,

including the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, to

deliver food, nutrition, health and other emergency items to the Syrian people. On February 5,

2017, a UN convoy delivered food items to 84,000 people in some areas of Aleppo city, for the

first time since September 19, 2016.

On February 1, United Nations human rights experts expressed concern that US President

Donald Trump’s executive order of immigration ban is in breach of the country’s human

rights commitments.

UN Special Rapporteur on migrants, François Crépeau; on racism, Mutuma Ruteere; and on

freedom of religion, Ahmed Shaheed termed Trump’s immigration ban discriminatory based on

38

nationality. They said it would lead to increased stigmatisation of Muslim communities. They

also said that the US’ recent policy on immigration also risks those being returned, without

proper individual assessments and asylum procedures, to places where they might be subjected

to torture and other cruel treatments.

--- Moiz Khan