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Security Report April - June 2016
CRSS Quarterly Security Report – Q2, 2016
Introduction
The upsurge in violence recorded during last quarter (January - March, 2016) dropped significantly
during this reporting period (April - June, 2016). That being said, the militants, the noose ever-tightening
around them, appear to have made a strategic shift in terms of areas of operation and targets. Chief of
Army Staff General Raheel Sharif declared that the ongoing Operation Zarb-e-Azb was over, as the most
dreaded areas in North Waziristan had been cleared. The military operation carried out in the riverine
areas of the South Punjab also ended during this quarter with successful clearance of the area from the
notorious gangster Chotu Mazari and his associates.
Other than these successes in the war on terror, a few high profile incidents of violence shocked the
country. One of them was the brazen assassination of the popular Qawal, Amjad Sabri, during the holy
month of Ramazan at one of the busiest locales in Karachi. This also caused concern about the presence
of fully operations criminal elements in urban centers.
To assess and evaluate what new challenges and threats are being faced by the country, this report
makes use of the national print and electronic media sources. CRSS endeavors to ensure that the data is
as accurate as possible within the available resources. However, it does not rule out errors and
omissions, which are always a possibility in such statistical works. Such mistakes, nevertheless, do not
grossly affect the overall outcome and conclusions of this report.
Readers can approach CRSS for information related to this report. Alternately, you may send your
queries to [email protected], directly to Mohammad Nafees, Senior Research Fellow, CRSS – the author of
the report ([email protected]), or Zeeshan Salahuddin, Senior Research Fellow
([email protected]) – the editor.
Table of Contents
CRSS Quarterly Security Report – Q2, 2016 .........................................................................................1
Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1
Table of Contents ...................................................................................................................................... 2
List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ 3
Security Report – Q2, 2016 .................................................................................................................4
Fatalities from Violence ........................................................................................................................... 4
Balochistan ................................................................................................................................................ 9
FATA ........................................................................................................................................................ 13
Khyber Pukhtunkhwa .............................................................................................................................. 16
Punjab ..................................................................................................................................................... 20
Sindh ....................................................................................................................................................... 25
AJK, GB, and Islamabad ........................................................................................................................... 29
Sectarian Violence................................................................................................................................... 30
Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 31
List of Acronyms
# Acronyms
1 COAS Chief of Army Staff
2 NWA North Waziristan
3 FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
4 AJK Azad Jammu & Kashmir
5 GB Gilgit Baltistan
6 IED Improvised Explosive Device
7 LEA Law Enforcement Agency
8 US United States
9 PAF Pakistan Air Force
10 KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
11 ANP Awami National Party
12 NCs Non Combatants
13 RAW Research and Analysis Wing
14 LeJ Lashkar-e-Jhangvi
15 TTP Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
16 AQIS Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent
17 CRSS Center for Research & Security Studies
Security Report – Q2, 2016
Fatalities from Violence
There were 788 casualties of violence (545 dead and 243 injured) during the 2nd Quarter of 2016 (April-
June, 2016). The FATA and Sindh regions, for the first time in last three years, recorded a lower number
of fatalities than in Balochistan (table 01). Within this year, as many as 58 Pakistani militants, hiding in
Afghanistan because of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, have been targeted by drone attacks. Coincidentally,
Pakistani militants were not the only ones who were found and targeted in a foreign country. A high
profile Afghan militant, Mullah Akhtar Mansur, Chief of Afghan Taliban, carrying Pakistani identification
documents, was targeted by a drone strike while he was entering Pakistan from Iranian border in
Balochistan.
Table 01: Casualties from violence by region – Q2, 2016
Region Fatalities Injuries Total
Casualties
FATA 62 18 80
Sindh 138 30 168
Balochistan 166 74 240
KP 92 104 196
Punjab 78 17 95
Islamabad 0 0 0
GB 0 0 0
Outside Pakistan (Syria/Afghanistan) 9 0 9
AJK 0 0 0
Total 545 243 788
Nearly 40% reduction in violence was observed throughout the country during the 2nd Quarter of 2016
(April – June 2016). The highest reduction in violence was noted in FATA as the military operation
reached its logical conclusion. Punjab also had a significant reduction in violence (table 02).
Table 02: Fatalities from violence in provinces – Percentages – Q2, 2016
Region Q1 Q2 %
Reduction
FATA 244 62 74.6%
Sindh 152 138 9.2%
Balochistan 181 166 8.3%
KP 126 92 27.0%
Punjab 163 78 52.1%
Islamabad 0 0 0.0%
GB 5 0 100.0%
Outside Pakistan (Syria/Afghanistan) 9 0 100.0%
AJK 0 0 0.0%
Total 872 536 38.5%
269 militants and 270 non-combatants (including security officials) lost their lives during this (table 03).
This is a significant drop from the previous quarter. Unfortunately, the largest group of victims of
violence among the non-combatants were civilians (172), followed by security officials (72) and others.
Out of 72 security officials who lost their lives in violence during this quarter, 46 were the policemen
which is more than 60% of the total fatalities of security officials during this period. Seven of these
policemen lost their lives while they were providing security to polio teams.
Table 03: Fatalities by type of victims – Q1 vs. Q2, 2016
Combatants
Victims Q1 Q2
Militants 671 335
Criminals 158 96
Insurgents 35 44
Non-Combatants (incl. Security Officials)
Victims Q1 Q2
Civilians 264 172
Security officials 103 72
Government officials 17 2
Politicians 7 24
Media personnel 3 0
Religious party 1 0
Religious person 1 0
Total 872 539
Militant attacks and target killings continued to show a significant reduction during this quarter (table
04). However, the victims of terrorism went up significantly during this quarter. Accidental explosions
also killed 7 persons who were carrying explosives. The slowdown in security operations also brought
down the number of fatalities. The incidents of robbery-related fatalities have also dropped significantly
during this period (table 04).
Although the fatalities from encounters with LEAs dropped from 191 in last quarter to 155 during this
quarter, these encounters still remained to be the highest causes of fatalities during this period. The
highest decline was observed in suicide bombing incidents. Only 3 persons were the victims of suicide
attack as against 125 fatalities counted last quarter. All other forms of violence also reflected a decline
in the number of fatalities (Table 04).
Table 04: Comparative data on violence and counter violence – Q2, 2016
Method of Violence Q1 Q2
Security operations 436 250
Militant attacks 187 36
Target killings 137 88
Other terrorism 39 115
Drone attacks 34 2
Robberies 21 10
Others 18 35
Total 872 536
A very few militant groups claimed responsibility of terror attacks that were carried out in the country
(table 05). From the table below, it is evident that the militants groups either elected to make no claims
or they are no longer in a position to carry out the type of violence that legitimizes them. Whatever the
reason, the sharp decline in militants’ claim of violence is a good sign of an improved security situation
in the country.
Table 05: Claimants of terror attacks - Q1, 2016
Claimants Balochistan FATA KP Punjab Sindh Total
TTP - JA 0 4 1 0 7 12
TTP 0 2 2 0 2 6
TTP - Hakeemullah 0 0 0 0 2 2
Chotu Mazari gang 0 0 0 10 0 10
Total 0 6 3 10 11 30
Balochistan
Compared to other provinces, the fatalities from violence in Balochistan witnessed a marginal drop
during this quarter. From 181 fatalities last quarter, the figure came down to 166, a near 10% reduction
(table B1). Among all provinces, the province of Balochistan had the highest number of fatalities from
violence during this quarter (table 01). A US drone attack targeted Afghan Taliban’s leader, Mullah
Akhtar Mansour, in a remote area close to the Iranian border. A month before his death, reports were
appearing in the press that he was making preparation for launching a spring offensive in Afghanistan1.
This incident, as claimed by Pakistan, derailed the initiatives for pursuing the Afghan militants to have a
dialog with the Afghan government for restoration of peace in the region.
Table B1: Casualties from violence in Balochistan – Q2, 2016
Month Fatalities Injuries Total Casualties
April 79 0 79
May 29 33 62
June 58 41 99
Total 166 74 240
1 http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/111659-Taliban-chief-consolidating-power-for-spring-battle
Kalat, Lasbella, Jaffarabad, and Panjgur experienced an upsurge in violence while places like Sibi, Kech,
Quetta and Kohlu had either no occurrence of violence or a significant drop in it during this quarter. The
number of districts affected by violence remained close to what was recorded last quarter (table B2).
Table B2: Fatalities in Balochistan by district – Q2, 2016
Districts Q1 Q2
Kalat 4 52
Quetta 58 43
Lasbella 4 14
Panjgur 6 11
Awaran 8 10
Nasirabad 7 7
Jaffarabad 0 6
Barkhan 8 4
Dera Bugti 10 4
Khuzdar 0 4
Harnai 0 3
Sibi 21 3
Nushki 0 2
Gwadar 5 1
Mastung 8 1
Zhob 4 1
Chagai 0 0
Kech (Turbat) 18 0
Kharan 0 0
Killa Abdullah 7 0
Killa Saifullah 0 0
Kohlu 11 0
Loralai 1 0
Pasni 0 0
Pishin 1 0
Ziarat 0 0
Total 150 181
Districts affected by violence related fatalities: 17 16
The fatalities of militants and criminals were 50% of the total fatalities in Balochistan during this quarter,
5% increase over last quarter (table B3).
Table B3: Fatalities in Balochistan by victims - Q2
Victims Q1 Q2
Militants 39 22
Criminals 2 4
Insurgents 44 57
Civilians 50 59
Security officials 45 21
Government officials 1 2
Politicians 0 1
Total 181 166
As many as nine Afghan spies were arrested from different parts of Balochistan during this quarter in
addition to the three facilitators of Afghan Taliban. One was arrested on suspicion of having links with
the Indian and Afghan Spy Agencies (table B4).
Table B4: Militant arrests by affiliation – Q1, 2016
Affiliation Arrested
Afghan Spy 9
Afghan Taliban Facilitator 1
Mullah Mansoor CNIC provider 2
RAW/Afghan agent 1
Total 13
FATA
A total of 62 persons lost their lives in FATA during this quarter which is a significant drop in violence in
the region (table F1).
Table F1: Casualties from violence in FATA – Q2, 2016
Month Fatalities Injuries Total Casualties
April 40 6 46
May 12 9 21
June 10 3 13
Total 62 18 80
Comparatively speaking, a 75% reduction in fatalities in FATA is observed during this quarter compared
to previous quarter (table F2). Kurram and Mohmand Agencies were the two locations where the
incidents of violence went up. During last three months, only one air raid by the Pakistan Air Force was
carried out in the FATA region that targeted militants in the North Waziristan’s border area close to
Afghanistan leaving 9 militants dead. Despite a significant slowdown of Operation Zarb-e-Azb, the
militants could still manage to carry out armed attacks at different locations in the FATA region. In
Khyber Agency, the majority of the victims of violence were members of the pro-government Peace
Committees. The incidents of bomb, IED, and landmine explosions also took place in Mohmand, Khyber,
and Kurram Agencies that left 10 persons dead and 13 injured.
Table F2: Fatalities in FATA by agency – Q2
Agency 2015 2016
Kurram 5 20
Mohmand 24 19
North Waziristan 176 12
Khyber 22 10
Bajaur 1 1
South Waziristan 10 0
Orakzai 1 0
Total 239 62
The fatalities of militants were the highest in FATA when compared with the fatalities of civilians and
security officials. However, a sharp decline in the number of fatalities of militants is visible during this
quarter when compared against Q1 (table F3).
Table F3: Fatalities in FATA by victims - Q2
Combatants
Victims Q1 Q2
Militants 206 43
Non-Combatants (incl. Security Officials)
Civilians 16 15
Security officials 17 4
Total 239 62
Khyber Pukhtunkhwa
As many as 198 persons (94 dead and 104 injured) were the victims of violence in the province of Khyber
Pukhtunkhwa during the Q2, 2016. The highest number of casualties was recorded in May 2016 (table
K1).
Table K1: Casualties from violence in KP – Q2, 2016
Month Fatalities Injured Total Casualties
April 19 27 46
May 44 50 94
June 31 27 58
Total 94 104 198
Compared to last quarter, fatalities from violence declined by 25%. However, civilians and security
officials were close to 60% of the total fatalities in KP (table K2). The militants and criminals were a little
over 30% of the total fatalities. For the last two years, the percentage of civilians and security officials
has always been higher than the militants in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa.
Table K2: Fatalities in KP by victims - Q2, 2016
Combatants
Victims Q1 Q2
Militants 6 18
Criminals 0 9
Non-Combatants (incl. Security Officials)
Victims 2015 2016
Civilian 77 30
Security official 21 24
Government official 16 0
Political activists 1 11
Media personnel 2 0
Religious person 1 0
Total 123 94
The data on the affiliation of the victims of violence bring to light the targets that were pursued by the
militants and criminals. The police officials appear to be the main target of violence followed by political
activists belonging to ANP and the pro-government Peace Committee members.
The districts of Peshawar and Charsadda witnessed a sharp decline in fatalities from violence while Swat
and Lakki Marwat have suddenly emerged as the main targets of violence. Despite a drop in the number
of fatalities, the number of districts affected of violence went up during this quarter (table K3).
Table K3: Fatalities by district in KP – Q1 vs. Q2, 2016
Districts Q1 Q2
Peshawar 47 18
Swat 8 14
Lakki Marwat 1 11
Mardan 3 9
D.I. Khan 8 6
Charsadda 45 6
Nowshera 5 5
Bannu 3 4
Haripur 3 4
Dir 0 4
Buner 0 3
Swabi 0 2
Tank 1 2
Kohat 1 1
Malakand 0 1
Havelian 0 1
Attock 0 1
Karak 1 0
Total 126 92
Number of districts affected by violence related fatalities:
12 15
Punjab
In Punjab, 78 persons lost their lives to violence during this quarter while the number of persons injured
was 17. The mount and scope of violence dropped significantly in this quarter (table P1).
Table P1: Casualties from violence in Punjab – Q2, 2016
Month Fatalities Injured Total Casualties
April 36 15 51
May 31 0 31
June 11 2 13
Total 78 17 95
More than a 50% drop in violence was recorded in Punjab during this quarter, when compared against
Q1, 2016. As many as 35 victims of violence in Rajanpur, Layyah, Multan, Muzaffargarh, Bahawalnagar,
and Bahawalpur districts of South Punjab were militants and criminals. During a security operation in
the Katcha area of Rajanpur, 10 policemen were also targeted by Chotu Mazari gang.
Table P2: Fatalities by district in Punjab – Q1 vs Q2, 2016
Districts Q1 Q2
Rajanpur 0 19
Multan 9 12
Lahore 89 11
Sheikhupura 9 8
Gujranwala 2 6
Layyah 0 6
Muzaffargarh 0 6
Okara (Renala Khurd) 2 3
Bahawalnagar 0 1
Bahawalpur 12 1
Faisalabad (Jaranwala) 10 1
Kasur 3 1
Rawalpindi 2 1
Jhang 0 1
Khushab 0 1
Muzaffargarh 9 0
Nankana Saheb 5 0
Bhakkar 3 0
Toba Tek Singh 2 0
Chakwal 1 0
Sialkot 1 0
D.G. Khan 1 0
Hafizabad 1 0
Jehlum 1 0
Pakpattan 1 0
Total 163 78
Number of districts affected by violence related fatalities: 19 15
Among the victims of violence in the Punjab, the highest percentage was of militants and criminals
(80%). Based on these figures, the security situation in the province appears to be highly satisfactory and
well within the control of security agencies.
Table P3: Fatalities in Punjab by victims - Q1 vs. Q2, 2016
Combatants
Victims Q1 Q2
Criminals 29 19
Militants 32 44
Non-Combatants (incl. Security Officials)
Victims 2015 2016
Civilians 91 4
Security officials 11 11
Total 163 78
Despite a law and order situation appearing so good, concerns are expressed from different quarters
that the province of the Punjab is a safe haven for the 70 banned outfits and no action is being taken
against them by the local government. Although local government denies these allegations, the two
major security operations that were carried out in Rajanpur against the Chotu Mazari gang during this
quarter indicate that there is a need for the Punjab government to take some house cleaning initiatives.
A large number of militants, gangsters, and other criminals arrested in the province during this quarter
also reflect the presence of such elements in the province based on their affiliations (Table xxx).
Table P4: Affiliation of militants arrested in Punjab - Q2, 2016
Affiliation of militants Arrested
Chotu Mazari gangsters 400
Lahore Iqbal Park attackers 17
Rajanpur gangsters 12
TTP/LeJ 8
Sri Lankan team attackers 6
Daish 5
Daish/LeJ 4
Militants - (unknown affiliation) 3
Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) 3
BLA - RAW Agent 3
Customs Inspector killer 1
LeJ 1
Total 463
Sindh
For two consecutive quarters, Sindh has recorded violence related fatalities lower than Balochistan
(table 01 and 02). As many as 139 persons lost their lives and 30 were injured during this quarter (table
S1). The fatalities of 139 in three months is close to what this province recorded in one month during
previous years.
Table S1: Casualties from violence in Sindh – Q2, 2016
Month Fatalities Injured Total Casualties
April 49 4 53
May 49 21 70
June 41 5 46
Total 139 30 169
The number of fatalities in Sindh during this quarter was lower than previous quarters. A similar
reduction is noticeable in Karachi as well (table S2). For the last three years, Karachi has been known for
frequent target killings and other crimes, and the average number of fatalities per month during last
year was around 100 persons. During 6 months of this year, this average has come down to 48 persons
per month – more than a 50% reduction in violence in Karachi. A significant reduction in violence is also
observed in other districts of the province as well.
Table S2: Fatalities by district in Sindh – Q2, 2016
Districts Q1 Q2
Karachi 140 133
Sujawal 0 3
Sukkur 2 1
Thatta 1 1
Shikarpur 5 0
Tando Allah Yar 4 0
Total 152 138
Number of districts affected by violence related fatalities: 5 4
Fatalities of non-combatants (civilians and political activists), including the security personnel, was 65%
of the total fatalities. After KP, Sindh was the only province where civilians and security officials had
higher number of fatalities than the militants and criminals. Out of 64 fatalities of civilians in Sindh, 51
were the victims of target killing in Karachi alone (table S3).
Table S3: Fatalities in Sindh by victims - Q1 vs. Q2, 2016
Victims Q1 Q2
Militant 47 30
Criminal 61 21
Foreign - Criminal 1 0
Civilian 30 64
Security official 7 12
Political activists 5 12
Religious party 1 0
Total 152 139
Among the militants and criminals that were arrested in Sindh during this quarter, a sizeable number of
them were suspected to have association with Indian Spy Agency - RAW. The militants belonging to
banned outfits like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), AQIS (Al-Qaeda in the
Indian Sub-continent), and many others were also arrested as suspects for the terror and target killing
activities that had occurred in the past (Table xxx).
Table S4: Affiliation of militants arrested in Sindh - Q2, 2016
Affiliation Arrested
LeJ 11
TTP 10
AQIS 5
Dockyard attackers 5
AQIS - Hafiz Shahid group 4
RAW Agent 3
MQM/RAW Agent 2
RAW Facilitator 2
Safoora Goth killers 2
TTP/LeJ 2
AQ Fund Raiser 1
Mullah Mansoor CNIC attester 1
Polio Guard killer 1
TTP - Swat grp 1
Total 50
AJK, GB, and Islamabad
No incident of violence reported from AJK, GB, and Islamabad during this quarter.
Sectarian Violence
The only provinces that experienced sectarian violence during this quarter were KP and Sindh (table
SV1). Last quarter 79 people lost their lives to sectarian violence, compared to 16 this quarter. This is a
nearly 80% reduction.
Table SV1: Sectarian violence by religion/sect - Q2
Religion Balochistan FATA KP Punjab Sindh
Shia 0 0 2 0 6
Ahmadi 0 0 1 0 2
Hindu 0 0 0 0 3
Sikh 0 0 1 0 0
Sunni 0 0 0 0 1
Total 0 0 4 0 12
Conclusion
The overall security situation has improved noticeably in the country with all provinces showing various
level of reduction in the number fatalities from violence.
Although the military operation is nearing conclusion, the operation in Karachi continues and may be
further extended because of high profile incidents of violence in the city. Karachi, a city-state of an
estimated 24 million people, will continue to be a massive security challenge for Pakistan.
The security threats posed by the dacoits having sanctuaries in Katcha areas of the South Punjab has
also been removed after a successful army operation in the area.
Many districts of Balochistan and KP became frequent target of militancy. Among security personnel,
policemen were primarily targeted by militants. A good number of these policemen were on the security
detail for the polio vaccination teams.
Sectarian violence also witnessed a sharp drop during this quarter. From 79 fatalities from sectarian
violence in the country during last quarter, the number came down 16 during this quarter, a nearly 80%
reduction.
While on the surface, the situation seems to be improving, it must be said that progress on several point
in the National Action Plan remains abysmal at best. Pakistan has gotten increasingly proficient at
physical destruction of militant hideouts, weapon caches and arresting/killing the criminal element, but
the ideology that fuels it continues to create divides. Unless this ideology is targeted through a focused
approach and propelled by political will, this temporary relief may be short-lived.