Fall 2014 Enrollment

Fall 2015 Projections

Mike Hoff

Institutional Research & Effectiveness

9.25.14

Outline

• Recap Fall 2014 Projections• Provide Fall 2015 Projections• Tennessee Promise

– Populations Impacted by Promise– Populations Not Impacted by Promise

• Discuss Potential Response To Promise

The ModelMarkov Chain

Markov Chain

– Is a time-series model that looks at past practice to predict future outcome

– For enrollment modeling, Markov chain tracks students, by status, from year1 to year2 allowing the researcher to calculate an recruitment rate and dropout rate by class

– The recruitment and retention rates are applied to the current standing of year2 to students, adding in new inputs by class for year2, to calculate enrollment for year3

Markov Chain - Continued

• Markov chain was chosen because– It is used by other similar institutions, both in-state,

and out-of-state– It uses only institutional data– Studies have shown it is accurate for 1 year

projections

• Population based models were rejected due to reliance on external projections

• ARIMA and other SAS projections were rejected because of complexity without increased accuracy

Markov Chain – Assumptions

• Assumes a consistent external environment

• Medicine and Pharmacy Enrollment is projected as stable

Fall 2014 Projection Review

2014 Projection vs Actual

Year Projection Actual Difference % Difference

2010 14,860 14,952 -92 -0.619%

2011 15,188 15,250 -62 -0.408%

2012 15,428 15,133 295 1.912%

2013 14,967 14,691 276 1.844%

2014 14,430 14,433 -3 -.0003%

2014 Projection vs Actual

• The model was 99.99% accurate• This does not mean we didn’t influence

enrollment at ETSU this past year• This just means that all things being equal

we performed as the model would expect

Credits Generated

University Credits by Level 2010-2014

Year Total 1,xxx 2,xxx 3,xxx 4,xxx Graduate

2010 178,851 55,253 45,124 30,539 25,153 17,886

2011 182,281 56,596 46,650 30,966 26,348 17,188

2012 177,819 54,762 46,826 31,159 26,854 18,218

2013 171,366 51,561 44,227 30,398 26,356 18,824

2014 169,716 52,384 43,705 29,736 25,280 18,611

% Change -5.11% -5.19% -3.14% -2.63% 0.50% 4.05%

Total Credits Fall 2010 -2014

College 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 % Change

UNIV 178,851 182,281 177,819 171,366 169,716 -5.11%

AS 98,490 100,103 95,909 90,041 88,094 -10.56%

BT 29,870 29,676 29,554 28,950 29,267 -2.02%

CR 7,138 7,473 7,930 8,141 8,155 14.25%

CS 1,309 1,499 643 685 540 -58.75%

ED 19,877 20,067 20,468 20,692 19,418 -2.31%

NU 9,623 10,518 10,876 11,407 11,890 23.56%

PU 9,140 9,835 10,218 9,890 10,012 9.54%

Fall 2015 Projection

Fall 2015 Projection

Year Projection Actual Difference % Difference

2011 15,188 15,250 -62 -0.408%

2012 15,428 15,133 295 1.912%

2013 14,967 14,691 276 1.844%

2014 14,430 14,433 -3 -.0003%

2015 14,297 ± 2% NA NA NA

Fall 2015 Projection

• UG/GR enrollment 13,685– 1% drop from Fall 2014

• MED enrollment projected at 288• Pharm enrollment projected at 324• Total Projection 14,297

Fall 2015 Projection

• This model assumes we do everything the same and the external environment remains stable

• Two things we know:– The external environment will not remain

stable– We will improve

Enrollment Goals

Fall 2014 Growth GoalsCollege Recruitment

IncreaseRetentionIncrease Total Increase

AS 154 220 374

BT 84 121 205

CR 35 50 85

CS 17 25 42

ED 75 107 182

NU 57 82 139

PU 18 25 43

Total 440 630 1,070

Fall 2014 Growth Outcomes

College Goal Actual Growth FA13-FA14

AS 374 -152

BT 205 47

CR 85 23

CS 42 -10

ED 182 -91

NU 139 55

PU 43 79

Total 1,070 -49

Fall 2015 Enrollment Goal

• The primary objective is to maintain Fall 2014 actual enrollments, thus compensating for any impact of Tennessee Promise

• Also, to continue the pursuit of the growth agenda metrics that have been identified to represent a stretch goal of 15,000

Fall 2015 Enrollment GoalsFall 2015 College Enrollment Goals

College FA2014 Enrollment

FA2015 Projected Increase Goal Flat Resulting

EnrollmentIncrease Goal

15,000Resulting

Enrollment

AS 4,195 4,068 77 4,145 173 4,241

BT 2,479 2,480 46 2,526 104 2,584

CR 964 964 18 982 40 1,004

CS 415 416 8 424 17 433

ED 2,045 2,045 38 2,083 87 2,132

NU 1,787 1,786 33 1,819 75 1,861

PU 609 609 13 622 29 638

Other 1,328 1,198 23 1,221 53 1,251

Total 13,822 13,566 256 13,822 578 14,144

Submit Growth Plans That…• Plans:

– Must outline plan for both flat enrollment and growing to 15,000 students

– Must be college specific– Must be transparent in depicting college engagement for bona fide

improvement tactics– Will be assessed using the overall enrollment goals presented

• Each plan must clearly and convincingly make the case for achieving a defined percentage of the college recruitment and retention goals

– Must include both recruitment and retention initiatives– Will be used to evaluate, by college, positions requested pending

available funds– Should depict college assessment of risk

Don’t Limit Your Plan• Consider

– Pedagogy & Delivery Systems– Curriculum

• Bridge Courses

– New Markets (International & Domestic)– New Collaborations– Alternative Schedules & Calendars– New Partnerships– New Student Populations

• With distinctive career goals• Students who cannot come to main campus (ex. E-Learning, International,

Out-of-state, etc.)• Trade impacted workers

– Service to others

TENNESSEE PROMISE

What is Tennessee Promise?

• “Last dollar” grant to cover all tuition at TN community colleges, TCAT’s or 4-year institutions offering an Associate Degree

• Available to all TN high school graduates beginning with class of 2015

• No GPA or ACT/SAT requirements to qualify

• Includes mentoring Program

Requirements/Deadlines

• Apply for Tennessee Promise by November 1• Submit FAFSA by February 15• Attend first mandatory meeting coordinated by

partnering organization – March 1• Attend second mandatory meeting coordinated

by partnering organization – May 31• Complete first 8 hours of community service –

August 1

POPULATION IMPACTED BY PROMISE

ETSU First-Time Freshmen

• Total First-Time Freshmen Population– 2,001

• Population Impacted by Tennessee Promise

• Total Tennessee First-Time Freshmen Fall 2014– 1,694 (85% of Total First-Time Freshmen)

• Target group has an ACT between 18-24– 887 Fall 2014

Projected Impact

Scenario State Guidance Worst Case

Impact 7% Decline* All ACT 18-24

Current Total 1,694 1,694

Projected Loss 119 887

Resulting Enrollment 1,575 807

*Based on the November 1st Registration Deadline

POPULATION NOT IMPACTED BY PROMISE

Populations Not Impacted

• Border County• Regional Enrollment• Out-of-State• E-Rate• Veterans

• Transfer Students• International Students• Graduate Students• Retained Students

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

Border County 765 834 870 884 990 871

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050

R² = 0.736338542551385

Border County Enrollment

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013

Regional Counties 234 227 208 255 269

25

75

125

175

225

275R² = 0.420269560651146

Regional County Enrollment

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

Out-of-State

959 1014 975 1095 980 1133

875

925

975

1025

1075

1125

R² = 0.440724346076459

Out-of-State Enrollment (Not Border)

Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

E-Rate 13 40 131 170 205

25

75

125

175

225R² = 0.965671008962381

E-Rate

Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

Veteran Enrollment 444 457 483 491 548

50

150

250

350

450

550R² = 0.904714824198233

Veteran Enrollment

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

Transfer Stu-dent HC

1173 1111 1253 1189 1132 1057

975

1025

1075

1125

1175

1225

1275

R² = 0.872736908135234

Transfer Student HC

One Year Retention and Graduation

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 20120

102030405060708090

100

74.5 74.3 74.1 73.780.5 78.3 78.9 79.7

TransferAll Other

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

Interna-tional

292 320 321 396 473 488

50

150

250

350

450

550

International

Graduate

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 20140

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2222 2207 2123 2269 2260 2271

34683773 3639 3669

39124333

HCApplications

Retained Students

• Improving retention is imperative to growing enrollment, and graduation

• From Fall 2013 to Fall 2014 we lost 430 students with no financial hold and a GPA of 3.0 or higher– Finding away to keep even half of these

students could be enough to manage the potential impact of Tennessee Promise

Current Initiatives To Mitigate TN Promise

• Improve Advising– Hiring 14 Professional Advisors– Expanding use of the EAB Student Success

Collaborative

• Restructure Scholarships– Presentation by Kathy Feagins

Closing Thoughts

Closing Thoughts

• Fall 2015 Enrollment Projected between 14,178 and 14,583

• Just to maintain the level of enrollment achieved in Fall 2014 is going to require purposeful and effective recruitment and retention efforts

• Our response to Tennessee Promise is two-pronged– Limit the loss of Tennessee First-Time Freshmen– Grow Populations not impacted by Tennessee Promise

Discussion