europe citywire retreat may 2013
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
For professional adviser use only | www.sandwfunds.com
Smith & Williamson European Growth Trust
Mark Pignatelli Citywire
Private Client Manager Retreat
16th –
17th May 2013
For professional adviser use only | www.sandwfunds.com
2
About Smith & Williamson
•
Smith & Williamson Group
Founded in 1881
An independently owned professional and financial services group
Private company, c.70% of equity mainly held by Directors and staff
Employs circa 1,450 staff in offices across the UK and Ireland
•
Smith & Williamson Investment Management
Privately-owned Limited Liability Partnership with over £14.0 billion of assets under management*
Over 170 investment managers
Winner of the 2010, 2011 and 2012 Citywire
Wealth Manager investment performance award for Best Large Firm
Investment offices in London, Glasgow, Bristol, Birmingham, Dublin and Belfast.
*AUM as at 31.03.13
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3
The European team
Mark PignatelliMark joined Smith & Williamson in 2008 to manage the Smith & Williamson European Growth Trust. Having begun his investment career at Baring Asset Management in 1987, Mark became Head of the European Investment Team in 1995. In 2000, Mark moved to Schroder Investment Management as Head of Europe and subsequently Chief Investment Officer. In 2004, Mark left Schroders
to establish Remus
Capital LLP. Mark has a degree in Economics and Economic History from the LSE.
Michael PascallMichael joined Smith & Williamson in September 2009 to assist Mark Pignatelli on the Smith & Williamson European Growth Trust. He began his investment career at Schroder Investment Management in 1998, as a member of
the European Team. In 2002 he joined the Investment Process Resource
Unit at Schroders
as a quantitative analyst where he helped to establish the unit’s two market neutral products. Michael subsequently joined Remus
Capital in April 2005. He has a degree in Mathematics from the University of Leicester.
£35.4 million assets in the Smith & Williamson European Growth Trust*£84.8 million total assets under the team’s management** *as at 08.05.13.**as at 08.05.13.
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4
Performance
Name
% Growth
YTD
To 08.05.2013
Calendar year
2012
Calendar year
2011
Calendar year
2010
Calendar year
2009
Value Rank Quartile Value Rank Quartile Value Rank Quartile Value Rank Quartile Value Rank Quartile
Smith & Williamson European Growth Trust
12.17 95 4 26.24 6 1 -23.71 106 4 14.58 18 1 23.73 21 1
FTSE Europe ex UK
(Total Return GBP)
15.80 17.82 -14.71 5.75 20.09
Total Median 14.93 100 100 18.70 104 104 -15.97 (108) 7.25 (107) 19.19 (100)
*Source Morningstar. mid-mid. Total return. Net income reinvested, Base currency GBPFTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) ©
FTSE 2013. FTSE®
is a trademark of London Stock Exchange Plc and The Financial Times Limited and is used by FTSE
under licence. All rights in the FTSE Indices vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE
not its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE Indices or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s
express written consent
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5
Fund proposition
•
The Fund is a multi-cap fund investing for growth in continental European equities
•
The Fund has two elements to it:
40-50% is invested in around 20 of the top 60 companies by market capitalisation –
this gives the fund a large-cap ‘anchor’
50-60% is invested on a bottom-up basis in around 40-50 of the best
stock ideas irrespective of market capitalisation and geography
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6
Stock selection philosophy
Five key criteria for stock selection:
1) High Quality Returns
(i.e. an ability to self-finance growth)
2) Attractive Valuation3) Sound Management Strategy4) Growing Footprint
(either industry or company specific)
5) Positive Earnings Surprise
1, 2 & 5 : using Quantitative screening 3
& 4 : using Qualitative fundamental analysis
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7
•
Disciplined process screening 1,600 stocks via 10 screens•
Designed to capture characteristics of value, high quality returns & earnings revisions
Stock selection process –
quantitative overlay applied to all stocks
Source: Bloomberg, Smith & Williamson Investment Management as at 08.0513
Coppock 144 Spread Name Total Market Cap Value Revisions Growth Quality Country Sector Beta62.32 19% Banca
Ifis 1 428 4 6 3 5 Italy Financials 0.60-2.02 13% Valeo 1 3752 4 6 19 22 France Industrials 1.3195.29 14% Leroy Seafood Group 1 1305 11 6 1 17 Norway Consumer Staples 0.3634.65 23% Grammer 1 287 10 14 12 21 Germany Industrials 1.78-19.12 -6% Sto
Pref. 1 752 24 7 4 16 Germany Industrials 0.4221.83 11% Koenig & Bauer 1 295 6 8 2 63 Germany Industrials -0.0315.38 12% Eltek
Asa 1 239 14 1 2 61 Norway Industrials 0.11-8.65 13% Pharmstandard
OJSC 1 1966 7 7 16 24 Russia Pharma
Health 0.32225.19 49% Norwegian Air Shuttle 1 1357 14 1 22 11 Norway Consumer Cyclicals 0.685.21 0% Block Watne
Gruppen 1 249 5 4 10 44 Norway Consumer Cyclicals 0.07-5.10 4% Joyou 1 262 3 3 13 44 Germany Consumer Cyclicals -0.40-26.62 -3% Uzin
Utz 1 104 22 1 10 36 Germany Commodities 0.2315.02 9% SAF-Holland 1 299 17 18 6 24 Germany Industrials 1.3423.67 5% Borussia
Dortmund 1 201 5 11 21 19 Germany Consumer Cyclicals 0.2411.80 -10% Deutsche Beteiligungs 1 258 8 8 17 32 Germany Financials 0.59-4.38 0% Sberbank
of Russia 1 57613 17 15 14 5 Russia Financials 0.98-1.38 1% Centrotec
Sustainable 1 270 17 18 10 24 Germany Industrials 0.728.79 12% Total Gabon 1 2126 1 3 38 22 France Energy 0.45
-26.57 -16% TMK OAO 1 1918 2 27 24 16 Russia Commodities 0.84-47.56 -18% Anglo Pacific Group PLC 1 294 30 1 6 47 United Kingdom Commodities 0.1413.27 15% R Stahl 1 227 34 13 8 5 Germany Industrials 0.2726.30 7% Homag
Group 1 222 19 19 5 36 Germany Industrials 0.3177.86 10% Vueling
Airlines 2 268 9 25 11 13 Spain Consumer Cyclicals 0.08-28.96 4% Cramo
Oyj 2 440 9 11 3 90 Finland Industrials 1.3936.01 17% Brembo 2 854 20 18 13 29 Italy Industrials 1.20
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8
XYZ –
additional screening process
Source: Bloomberg, Smith & Williamson Investment Management as at 08.05.13
Real EBITDA % Theoretical Theoretical CurrentName Value Revisions Total X Y Z1 Z2 Z3 Cap Emp Real CE Upside EV Net Debt Mkt
Cap Mkt
CapLEROY SEAFOOD GROUP 11 6 1 11% 8% 18% 23% 11% 5,756 0.33 13.1% 12,814 1,644 11,170 9,879CERMAQ 17 16 3 9% 6% 15% 18% 11% 6,477 0.27 -3.8% 12,086 2,474 9,612 9,990BARON DE LEY 21 16 3 -3% 8% 5% 5% 5% 158 0.21 12.7% 226 -57 283 251WESSANEN KON.CERTS. 13 6 3 -3% 7% 4% 4% 5% 225 0.19 15.7% 285 34 250 217TRIBAL GROUP 41 2 4 74% 6% 80% 6% 9% 31 0.00 -105.4% 0 8 -8 142GENERALE DE SANTE 21 1 6 -7% 17% 10% 11% 13% 1,310 0.19 50.2% 1,711 769 941 627DELHAIZE GROUP 10 4 8 2% 6% 9% 9% 8% 5,862 0.24 60.5% 9,778 1,787 7,991 4,979FYFFES (ESM) 5 15 10 5% 9% 14% 16% 13% 122 0.30 32.7% 252 -20 272 205RECKITT BENCKISER GROUP 68 3 11 5% 6% 11% 29% 6% 2,768 1.04 -45.5% 19,573 1,432 18,141 33,285SAINSBURY (J) 20 10 12 5% 2% 7% 10% 7% 4,120 0.35 7.1% 9,938 2,210 7,728 7,217ROYAL UNIBREW 45 28 12 1% 7% 7% 8% 7% 1,347 0.47 -32.4% 4,274 486 3,788 5,602SAS 1 27 14 0% 14% 14% 14% 14% 18,131 0.20 269.2% 24,220 6,910 17,309 4,688DISTRIBUIDORA INTNAC.DE ALIMENTACION56 8 17 6% 4% 10% 14% 9% 1,749 0.38 -3.9% 4,552 477 4,074 4,239CRANSWICK 38 7 18 8% 5% 13% 17% 9% 199 0.35 -11.0% 480 14 467 524TESCO 19 30 21 6% 3% 10% 14% 9% 14,983 0.35 1.6% 36,125 5,379 30,745 30,262SLIGRO FOOD GROUP 36 18 24 1% 6% 7% 7% 7% 649 0.24 -9.0% 1,050 23 1,027 1,128AXFOOD 46 21 26 22% 4% 26% 42% 13% 5,145 0.38 -12.7% 13,301 178 13,123 15,037BONGRAIN 3 57 27 2% 6% 8% 7% 7% 1,784 0.16 126.4% 1,905 288 1,617 714CASINO GUICHARD-P 30 26 27 8% 0% 7% 10% 2% 11,613 0.30 80.6% 23,666 6,527 17,139 9,490KWS SAAT (XET) 72 12 29 13% 3% 16% 21% 12% 651 0.29 -22.4% 1,307 -121 1,427 1,839BARR (AG) 88 9 29 10% 4% 14% 22% 8% 117 0.41 -51.2% 325 9 316 648BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO58 26 30 11% 6% 16% 83% 8% 4,233 1.59 -47.5% 46,020 8,948 37,072 70,608SUEDZUCKER (XET) 18 38 31 4% 5% 9% 10% 8% 4,589 0.26 21.3% 8,017 562 7,456 6,145MARR 34 24 32 7% 6% 13% 17% 8% 279 0.34 -26.2% 640 173 467 632MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS. 28 25 32 7% 1% 8% 17% 8% 2,697 0.49 -7.8% 8,928 2,582 6,347 6,887C&C GROUP 60 22 34 10% 6% 15% 30% 8% 295 0.56 -34.7% 1,117 59 1,058 1,619TOTAL PRODUCE (ESM) 4 36 40 -3% 10% 8% 7% 9% 203 0.30 51.7% 409 63 345 228PINGUINLUTOSA 31 36 40 -11% 16% 5% 9% 9% 364 0.14 87.5% 358 -43 401 214ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS 76 5 41 6% 3% 9% 11% 7% 5,942 0.28 -31.9% 11,447 735 10,712 15,723HYDER CONSULTING 7 61 42 7% 8% 15% 15% 9% 133 0.23 39.2% 210 -28 237 171
Screen Scores
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Stock selection process –
qualitative review of screened stocks
Company meetings**
Conferences
Analyst meetings*
Qualitative stock
assessment process
•
Management is very important (i.e. business plans)•
Macro oversight -
industry dynamics assessed
*In the last twelve months Mark has attended circa 150 analyst meetings
** In the last twelve months Mark has attended over 200 company meetings
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10
Portfolio construction
Invested only in some of the top 60 indexed companies in Europe
Any stock irrespective of size, sector or country
c.50-60% currently 59%*
Portfolio
c.40-50% currently 41%*
*Data as at 08.05.13
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11
Top ten top-down holdings
Stock name
Country
% weight in Fund
1.
Novartis
Switzerland 4.4%2.
Danske
Bank Denmark 3.3%
3.
Credit Suisse Group
Switzerland 3.3%4.
AXA
France
3.2%
5.
BNP Paribas France
3.2%6.
BBVA
Spain 3.2%
7.
Societe
General France
3.1%8.
Credit Agricole
France
3.0%
9.
ING Groep
Netherlands
2.8%10.
Volkswagen
Germany
2.7%
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management, Bloomberg, as at 08.05.13
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12
Top ten active bottom-up holdings
Stock name
Country
% weight in Fund
1.
Danske
Bank
Denmark 3.3%2.
Credit Agricole
France
3.0%
3.
Delhaize Group Belgium
2.3%4.
Smurfit Kappa Group Ireland
2.1%
5.
Lottomatica
Group Italy
1.9%6.
Bertrandt
Germany
1.9%
7.
Stora
Enso
Finland
1.9%8.
Ascom
Holding Switzerland 1.9%
9.
KBC Groep
Belgium
1.9%10.
Wincor Nixdorf Germany
1.8%
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management, Bloomberg, as at 08.05.131
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13
Four issues
1.
Liquidity
2.
Valuation
3.
Growth
4.
Eurozone
crisis
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Liquidity
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15
Liquidity boom
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management, Datastream
as at 13.03.13
Euro Stoxx
Price to Book (inverted)
Italian & Spanish 10 Year Yield
Europe Corporate BBB Yield
Government 10 Year Yield
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
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US debt and asset price deflation
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as at 13.05.13
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 201220
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
US Household Debt US Nominal House Prices
16
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Valuation
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Historically profits mean revert
Source: MSCI, Morgan Stanley as at 03.05.13
European vs
USA ROE %
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19
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management Datastream
as at 08.05.13
ROE Price to Book
European ROE & price/book
x%
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
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Growth
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21
The power of money
Annual rates of growth in %, real M1 deflated by consumer prices
and advanced by 3 quarters, on right-hand scale.; real GDP on left-hand scale.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan 92 Jan 95 Jan 98 Jan 01 Jan 04 Jan 07 Jan 10 Jan 13
Eurozone real M1,3q fwd, lhs GDP, rhs
Source: Eurostat, ECB, Berenberg
calculations as at 11.03.13
Eurozone
M1 and GDP growth
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22
Positive European EPS momentum
Source: Datastream
and Bloomberg Finance L.P. as at 30.04.13
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
EPS Upgrades v Downgrades De-trended IFO
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23
Europe Earnings Growth, Earnings Surprise & EBIT Margins
Actual Earnings Growth (YoY) Actual EPS v 12 Month Forward EPS Actual Change in Non-financial EBIT Margins (YoY)
Source: Datastream
as at 08.05.13
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
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Eurozone
equities vs
PMI
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, as at 09.05.13
Germany PMIEuro Stoxx
50 Eurozone
PMI
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25
PMI new export orders
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, as at 09.05.13
ChinaUS SwedenSingapore
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Eurozone
crisis
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27
VDAX volatility
Source: Bloomberg, Finance L.P. as at 13.05.13
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28
Periphery is rebalancing
Change in export share in GDP 2H 2007 to 1H 2012; relative to starting level, in %Change in net export share in GDP 2H 2007 H2 to 1H 2012, relative to 2H 2007 share of exports in GDP, in %
‐10 0 10 20 30 40
SpainGreece
PortugalCyprusIrelandEstoniaMalta
SloveniaPoland
SlovakiaItaly
United KingdomEuro17
NetherlandsSweden
GermanyBelgiumFranceAustria
LuxembourgFinland
Exports share % change
Net exports share % change
Source: Eurostat, Berenberg
11.03.13
Swing in exports and net exports
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29
Balancing the external account
Current account balance in % of GDP, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Ireland; 12-month moving average.
Source: Eurostat, Berenberg
11.03.13
Euro periphery: current account balance
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Jan 2001 Jan 2003 Jan 2005 Jan 2007 Jan 2009 Jan 2011
Current account (% of GDP)
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30
Euro re-rates with equities
Source: Bloomberg, Finance L.P. as at 09.05.13
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Intra-market dynamics
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32
Cyclical vs
defensive earnings
Cyclicals Defensives
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management, Datastream, as at 08.05.13
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12
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33
Relative valuation of cyclical vs
defensive
Cyclicals
F12M EPS Defensives F12M EPS Cyclicals
v Defensives Price to Book
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management, Datastream, as at 08.05.13
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-120.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
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34
Bank earnings gap
Cyclicals Defensives Financials
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management, Datastream, as at 08.05.13
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12
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35
European banks ROE & price/book
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management Datastream
08.05.13
% x
ROE Price to Book
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
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36
Smith & Williamson quant styles -
Europe
Source: Smith & Williamson Investment Management, Datastream, as at 08.05.13
Value Revisions Quality
0.85
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13
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Europe and US value vs
growth
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, as at 13.05.13
MSCI indices value vs
growth
MSCI Europe MSCI United States
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13
37
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Appendix
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39
US operating margin (S&P500)
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, as at 09.05.13
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40
China price/book
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream
as at 08.05.13
x
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13
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41
ContactsNick HodgsonPartner, Head of Marketing and SalesTel: 020 7131 4630 Mob: 07720 558636E-mail: [email protected]
Julian PolnikHead of Broker DeskTel: 020 7131 4628E-mail: [email protected]
Dedicated funds website: www.sandwfunds.com
Andrew GrovesPartner -
SalesTel: 020 7131 4756
Mob: 07917 580592E-mail: [email protected]
Matthew KempPartner -
SalesTel: 020 7131 4467Mob: 07584 150797E-mail: [email protected]
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42
Key risks•Investment does involve risk. The value of investments can go down as well as up and investors may not receive back the original amount invested.
•Equity (stocks & shares) investment is subject to specific risks
relating to the performance of the individual companies held, the market’s perception of them and systematic risks such as general economic conditions, interest rates, foreign exchange rates and industry sector risks. In general terms, equities tend to be more volatile than bonds.
•When investments are made in overseas securities, movements in exchange rates may have an effect on the value of that investment. The effect may be favourable or unfavourable.
•Investments in smaller companies may involve a higher degree of risk as markets are usually more sensitive to price movements.
•From time to time the Trust may invest in initial public offerings (IPOs) which frequently are smaller companies. Such securities may be subject to greater price volatility than more established securities and are therefore higher risk.
•Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
•Investment is subject to documentation (Prospectus, Key Investor
Information Document (KIID) and Terms & Conditions), copies of which can be obtained free of charge in English online at www.sandwfunds.com
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43
Important informationFor professional advisers only -
not for use by or distribution to retail investors.
This document contains information believed to be reliable but no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given as to their accuracy or completeness. This is neither an offer nor a solicitation to buy or sell any investment referred to in this document. Smith & Williamson Investment Management (SWIM) documents may contain future statements which are based on our current opinions, expectations and projections.
Smith & Williamson Investment Management does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any future statements. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated. Appropriate advice should be taken before entering into transactions. No
responsibility can be accepted for any loss arising from action taken or refrained from based on this publication.
The opinions expressed are those held by SWIM at the time of going to print and are subject to change. This material should not be considered by the recipient as a recommendation relating to the acquisition or disposal of investments. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.
There can be no assurance that the professionals currently employed by SWIM will continue to be employed by SWIM or that the past performance or success of any such professional serves as an indicator of such professional’s future performance or success.
There can be no assurance that the Trust
will achieve its investment objective, the target return or any other objectives. Any target return shown is neither guaranteed nor binding on the Manager.
Any information about specific stocks or investments is given for illustrative purposes. It is considered to be accurate at the time of writing but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in
respect of any error or omission is accepted. Any examples of specific stocks are included solely to illustrate the investment process and strategies which may be utilised by the Trust. These investments are not necessarily representative of future investments that the Trust will make.
Smith & Williamson European Growth Trust is a UK domiciled unit trust authorised by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.
Issued in the UK by Smith & Williamson Investment Management LLP
which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (registration number is 580531).
Ref: 550/2013/db