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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Diversified returns from global government bonds and currencies
This presentation is intended for professional clients and investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by retail investors.
Introduction
Ignis fixed income capabilities
Investment process
Fund summary
Appendix
Agenda
November 11
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
To deliver
Cash + 2-3%* (after fees)
Low volatility: 4-6% standard deviation**
Information ratio of 0.75
Low correlation with other asset classes
Alpha not beta
For an environment of
Low interest rates
Unspectacular economic growth
No clear trends in asset markets
Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
To provide
Long/short exposure to only the highest quality and most liquid securities
Developed market government bonds
AAA bonds issued by supranationals(IMF, World Bank, etc)
G10 currency markets
Max 25% of total risk budget in foreign currency (G10 only)
An innovative fund designed:
*Please note this is a target return only and is calculated on a rolling 12 month basis. The cash level is based on the overnight rate (EONIA).**The fund’s target volatility will be a standard deviation level of 4-6%, it will be managed to deliver stable returns regardless of market moves.
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Performance/volatility since inception
Source: Internal, net of fees, at 31/10/2011. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
31 Mar 11 30 Apr 11 31 May 11 30 Jun 11 31 Jul 11 31 Aug 11 30 Sep 11 31 Oct 11
PerformanceEUR Class I Shares
EONIA
EONIA + 3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
31 Mar 11 30 Apr 11 31 May 11 30 Jun 11 31 Jul 11 31 Aug 11 30 Sep 11 31 Oct 11
Ex ante Annualised Volatility
Performance against competitors
Source: Lipper, net of fees, at 31/10/2011. Julius Baer BF Absolute Return to 28/10/11 as data for 31/10/2011 unavailable at time of printing.Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
%
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
31 Mar 2011 30 Apr 2011 31 May 2011 30 Jun 2011 31 Jul 2011 31 Aug 2011 30 Sep 2011 31 Oct 2011
Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond
Threadneedle Target Return Core
Threadneedle Target Return
Amundi Dynarbitrage VaR 4
Julius Baer BF Absolute Return
Standard Life SICAV Abs Return Glo Bd Strat
Correlation
Source: Lipper at 31/10/2011, correlation of daily returns in EUR based on EUR I share class since fund launch on 31/03/2011. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
Since launch the fund has exhibited low correlation with other asset classes, and a negative correlation with equities:
Ignis Absolute Ret Govt Bond
MSCI Europe Barclays Capital Euro Aggregate Corporate
Barclays Capital Euro Government
All Maturities ETFS Physical Gold
Ignis Absolute Ret Govt Bond 100.00% -51.21% 34.52% 24.31% 32.16%
MSCI Europe -51.21% 100.00% -27.82% -39.59% -33.92%
Barclays Capital Euro Aggregate Corporate
34.52% -27.82% 100.00% 37.13% 35.54%
Barclays Capital Euro Government All Maturities
24.31% -39.59% 38.69% 100.00% 21.79%
ETFS Physical Gold 32.16% -33.92% 35.54% 21.79% 100.00%
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Fixed Income assets under management
Total of €55bn Assets Under Management as at 30 June 2011.
The fixed income team is made up of more than 30 investment professionals
The team operates under the guidance of Ignis CIO Chris Fellingham, previously CEO/CIO of George Soros’ London asset management business
Source: Internal at 30/06/2011.
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Sovereign and related supras, inflation linked
34%
Liquidity 26%
Credit 28%
Volatility 12%
Ignis rates team manages €36.3bn* and specialises in government bonds and currencies
Unique, state of the art, proprietary rates process since 2006
Led by Russ Oxley, with 14 years’ investment experience, the rates team is made up of 12 investment professionals, including Ignis chief economist Stuart Thomson, who has 26 years’ investment experience
The Ignis rates team
Head of Rates
Russ Oxley (14)
Quant Team
Adam Purzitsky (7)Ross Crawford (10)Josh Heming (13)
Macro Economics
Stuart Thomson (26)
Portfolio Management
Grant Peterkin (12)Paul Shanta (3)
Jin Wong (5)Rod Jack (34)
Aaron Rock (5)
Emerging Markets
Dan Beharall (16)Ron Raychaudhuri (1)
Liquidity Management
Brian Jack (11)Iain Mason (23)
Jennifer Chirrey (24)
Repurchases
Matthew Porter (15)Colin Goymer (16)
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
*Source: Internal at 30/06/2011. (Figures in brackets are number of years of investment experience.)
Chief Investment Officer
Chris Fellingham (26)
9
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Investment process: Value is at the centre of our decision process
Macroeconomic skill is the key to making money: where is the value?
Forward rates offer clarity
Proprietary ClearCurve model gives us precision
Having this gives us the courage to back our conviction
We combine these with Control, provided by rigorous risk management and trading processes
Value
Clarity
Precision
Control
Courage
Investment processWe believe alpha is created by well thought out macroeconomic views applied precisely in a risk controlled process
ValueClarity & precision Risk Control
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Investment Themes Meeting
Academic research/
Think-tanks
Investment Banking Reports/Market
Intelligence
Economic Data
Themes meeting is multi-disciplinary
Experienced team with a range of backgrounds
Chief economist is a member of Rates team
Value: generating the macro view
Key Investment ThemesAsset preferences
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Academic research/
Think-tanks
Developed country carry strategies, directional bets on Global Policy Rates
Directional bets on developed market forward rates driven by global competition for capital
Directional bets on risk free forward rates driven by structural supply and demand
Technical analysisMacroeconomic medium term viewShort term view driven by market information
Macro driven – isolate Inflation risk
Opportunities between risk free and derivative curves
Volatility positions on developed market bonds or interest rate derivatives
The Arc of Alpha
< 2
2-15
>15
FX
Inflation
AssetSwaps
Volatility
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Forward rate curveForward - 02/11/2011Forward - 04/01/2011
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
1y0y
1y1y
1y2y
1y3y
1y4y
1y5y
1y6y
1y7y
1y8y
1y9y
1y10
y
1y11
y
1y12
y
1y13
y
1y14
y
1y15
y
1y16
y
1y17
y
1y18
y
1y19
y
1y20
y
1y21
y
1y22
y
1y23
y
1y24
y
1y25
y
1y26
y
1y27
y
1y28
y
1y29
y
%
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
ClearCurveClarity: proprietary technology - the forward rate “curve”
Yield movements vary hugely by maturity ClearCurve ensures we take risk only where we expect it to be rewarded
Dominated by changes in domestic structural supply and demand / regulation
Global competition for capital / Global MacroExpectation of base rates
Source: ClearCurve, November 2011 13
Scenario analysis shows how current position would have performed historically
Is the risk appropriate?
Under what scenarios does it perform poorly?
ClearCurveClarity & precision: sizing our positions
14
Example UK gilt active positioning Scenario analysis for example position 2005 to date
Source: ClearCurve, October 2011
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
ClearCurveClarity & precision: how do we implement these views?
German Forward CurvePotential positions
Carry:Long 1y4y fwd
→ Long 5yr bund, short 4yr bund
Directional:Long 1y9y fwd
→ Long 10yr bund
Relative value:Long 1y14y and 1y19y,short 1y16y and 1y17y
→ Long 15yr, 16yr and 20yr bund, short 14yr, 18yr and 19yr bund
Source: ClearCurve, October 2011 15
ClearCurveControl: ensuring precision and consistency
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Source: ClearCurve, June 2011. For indicative purposes only.
Calculates forward curves for all instruments
Assists in benchmark construction and portfolio implementation
Monitors portfolio risk
Scales active positions according to risk budget
17
ClearCurveA key proprietary tool
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Source: ClearCurve, June 2011. For indicative purposes only.
Portfolio Risk is controlled and managed through:
Front, EMA, and ClearCurve
UBS Delta
Fund Manager – with the following guidelines:
Volatility target range - 4-6% standard deviation.
VaR (internal limit) - 20 day VaR limit of 2.75%#.
Leverage permitted under UCITS III – but limited by target volatility levels.
Defined list of securities and instruments the managers can invest in.
Highly liquid investments .
Sophisticated portfolio monitoring tools.
Control: risk monitoring
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
#VaR at 95% confidence level.
19
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Ex-ante Tracking Error: diversified strategies have helped in a volatile environment
Source: UBS Delta, data as at 31/10/2011. The fund takes risk by implementing different strategies. If each strategy was well correlated, the total risk of the fund would be a sum of the parts. In fact, the strategies are lowly correlated. This creates a diversification benefit, reducing the fund’s total volatility.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
TOTAL Rates < 2yr Rates 2-15yr Rates 15yr+ FX Global Inflation
Asset Swap Volatility Strategies
Diversification
%
Why a fund like this? Low risk*
Lowly correlated with other asset classes
Designed to deliver performance in volatile/low growth conditions
Alpha not beta
Why Ignis for a fund like this?
Stable, experienced team
Innovative process
Proprietary technology
Performance
Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
*The fund’s target volatility is a standard deviation level of maximum 6%, it is managed to deliver positive returns regardless of market moves.
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Performance
Source: Internal, bid to bid, net income reinvested from 31 Dec 2005 to 31 Dec 2010. The chart takes the historical performance for the Ignis generic gilt product (long only), scaled up in proportion to the higher active risk on the IARGBF against the Ignis Gilt Pension Fund.
Clearly the gilt product uses a far more constrained opportunity set than the absolute return fund but gives an indication of the potential performance.
Simulated performance – based on the Ignis Gilt Pension Fund (allowing for higher risk)
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
30 Dec 05 30 Jun 06 31 Dec 06 30 Jun 07 31 Dec 07 30 Jun 08 31 Dec 08 30 Jun 09 31 Dec 09 30 Jun 10 31 Dec 10
Simulation return
EONIA return
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Market volatilityVolatility in government bonds has been at Lehman Crisis levels…
Source: Bloomberg
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
01 Apr 11 01 May 11 01 Jun 11 01 Jul 11 01 Aug 11 01 Sep 11
US 10yr Historical Volatility
Hist Vol(5D)
Hist Vol(15D)
Hist Vol(30D)
Hist Vol(50D)
156 At Lehman Crisis
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Example trade strategies
Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond FundNovember 11
< 2
2-15
>15
FX
Inflation
AssetSwaps
Volatility
Short European 2y Swap Rate
Following the ECB rate hike at the start of April the 2y swap rate sold off as the markets were less convinced there would be immediate rate hikes to follow.
Our view was that aggressive action from Trichet was not fully priced into the market.
We paid the European 2y Swap rate 2.353% on 21 April. The rate rallied aggressively to 2.48% before the May ECB meeting. We closed this position here capturing the 13bps yield move and 7bps of performance for the fund.
25
EUR – short dated
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
05 Apr 11 12 Apr 11 19 Apr 11 26 Apr 11 03 May 11 10 May 11 17 May 11
Opened at 2.353%
Closed close to the Intraday high at 2.48%
Source: Bloomberg, May 2011
< 2
2-15
>15
FX
Inflation
AssetSwaps
Volatility
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
%
In an environment when global rates are collapsing, and investors hunt for yield, Australian 5y5y at 5.90% was too cheap.
We closed the position at 5.45% for a 12bps gain for the fund. We exited the position early but have compensated through holding long global rates positions elsewhere.
26
Australia – medium dated
Target3
4
5
6
7
8
9
26 Feb 08 26 Aug 08 26 Feb 09 26 Aug 09 26 Feb 10 26 Aug 10 26 Feb 11 26 Aug 11
Australian 5y5y
Entry 5th August @ 5.9%, exit @ 5.45%
%
< 2
2-15
>15
FX
Inflation
AssetSwaps
Volatility
Source: ClearCurve, September 2011
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
US 5y5y
The dangerous stalemate between political parties in the US threatened an imminent default at the start of August which caused an aggressive sell off in global risk assets at the start of the month.
The fund entered a long 5y5y US position on 5 August to take advantage of collapsing 10y year yields due to this risk aversion.
Lengthened the position to 10y5y to take advantage of a flattening curve should the Fed pursue Operation Twist at the upcoming FOMC meeting.
27
US – medium dated
< 2
2-15
>15
FX
Inflation
AssetSwaps
Volatility
Source: ClearCurve, September 2011
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
%
We went long 10y10y in the UK on 19 August. This sector of the curve underperformed at the start of the outright rally.
Since 19 August this part of the curve has been the best performer.
28
UK – long dated
-120-100
-80-60-40-20
02040
1y0y 1y10y 1y20y 1y30y 1y40y
Forward change 1 month
4.80
4.85
4.90
4.95
5.00
5.05
5.10
5.15
19 Aug 11 22 Aug 11 25 Aug 11 28 Aug 11 31 Aug 11 03 Sep 11 06 Sep 11 09 Sep 11 12 Sep 11 15 Sep 11
UK 10y10y
< 2
2-15
>15
FX
Inflation
AssetSwaps
Volatility
Source: ClearCurve, September 2011
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
%
After forming a macroeconomic view, the team uses ClearCurve to identify where best to express the view.
ClearCurve provides precise evaluations of forward rates and allows the team the opportunity to generate maximum alpha through the selection of cheap bonds.
In this case we have identified the 20 year sector in the UK as cheap and have chosen the 22’s against it to generate a forward rate of 5.06%.
From here we evaluate the volatility of the position and scale the size of the trade according to the expected return achieved by the trade reaching its target.
10y10y: constructing the trade
29
ClearCurve Identifies which forward rates are attractive
Fact Sheet
Position 1 year long 10y10y
Entry 5.06%
Target 4.50%
Stop 5.50%
Risk £7,000 per bps (1bps per bps)
Target Profit 50bps of profit at the fund level
Trades Sell 14m UKT 4% 2022
Buy 13.1m UKT 4.75% 2030
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Entry
Target
Stop
Source: ClearCurve, September 2011
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
%
The recovery of the Japanese economy from the tragic earthquake in March is increasingly vulnerable to currency appreciation.
The Japanese authorities cannot afford to allow the currency to strengthen to new record highs.
After two decades of economic paralysis, the official reaction function is nothing short of glacial.
Considerable patience is required through the authorities’ ineffectual verbal intervention, but we believe that this patience will berewarded.
The cost of failure is too great for the Japanese economy and its new Prime Minister.
FX: Yen/Dollar – patience required
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
Apr 10 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11
JPY
JPY
< 2
2-15
>15
FX
Inflation
AssetSwaps
Volatility
Source: Bloomberg, September 2011
November 11
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Uses the unique Ignis forward rates process:
- Process moves beyond the traditional approach based on duration and sensitivity
- Combination of numerous lower risk uncorrelated trades rather than one directional call = higher alpha potential from the same or lower risk
- Flexible implementation of investment views targeting specific parts of the yield curve (through analysis of forward rates)
- Efficient portfolio construction - ClearCurve proprietary model allows the team to implement, on a risk adjusted basis, its investment views
Generates alpha from fundamental views and the analysis of various forward government bond rate curves
Only invests in a market if the team have a strong fundamental view and an efficient way of taking advantage of that opportunity
Benefits of the forward rates process: Why is this fund different?
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Bond Futures
Interest Rate Swaps
OTC Options (on rates and currencies)
Swaptions
Currency Forwards
Inflation Swaps and Options
Examples of derivatives used to implement alpha strategies:
November 11
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
^This is the rate that large banks use to borrow from, and lend to, one another on the overnight market. In the UK this is SONIA (the Sterling OverNight Index Average).**Performance fee is net of fees, over compounded cash rates and subject to a high water mark.
Fund manager Russ Oxley (lead manager), Stuart Thomson (co manager)
Launch date 31 March 2011
Sector Lipper Absolute Return Euro Low
Structure UCITS III SICAV
Domiciled Luxembourg
Benchmark EONIA^
Liquidity Daily dealing
Minimum investment Eur A Class: €1,000 Eur I Class: €1,000,000
Annual management fee Eur A Class: 1% Eur I Class: 0.3%
Performance fee Fund manager is entitled to 10% of performance
generated above EONIA^ with a high water mark**
Fund profile
November 11
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
Contact us
France and Switzerland (French)Philip Goldsmith, Managing Director EuropeMob: +41 (0)79 753 35 74 / +44 (0)7836 243 999Email: [email protected]
Iberia and Latin AmericaMauro Loran Garcia, Regional DirectorMob: +34 (0)616 463 917Email: [email protected]
Germany, Austria and Switzerland (German)André Haubensack, Regional DirectorMob: +41 (0)79 373 79 13Email: [email protected]
BeneluxGhislaine Fournigault, Regional DirectorTel: +44 (0)20 3003 3125Email: [email protected]
Italy and TicinoArcangelo Barletta, Regional DirectorMob: +39 (0)392 89 60 736Email: [email protected]
NordicsTel: +44 (0)20 3003 3153Email: [email protected]
Telephone calls may be monitored and/or recorded for the purpose of security, internal training, accurate account operation, internal customer monitoring and to improve the quality of service.
Your main contact Your regional support
European Sales Support ManagerDee ClarkinTel: +44 (0)20 3003 3127Email: [email protected]
Business Development ExecutiveRiccardo VillaMob: +39 (0)347 27 52 557Email: [email protected]
Business Development ExecutiveJulien RicklinTel: +44 (0)20 3003 3124Email: [email protected]
Business Development ExecutiveJohanna PolletTel: +44 (0)20 3003 3128 Email: [email protected]
November 11
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Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund
35
DisclosureThis information is intended for professional clients and investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by retail investors.
Each purchaser of Shares acknowledges that the Fund is not and will not be registered for public distribution in Germany. This Presentation and any accompanying / subsequent documentation do not constitute a sales prospectus pursuant to the German Investment Act (Investmentgesetz) or the German Securities Prospectus Act (Wertpapierprospektgesetz). Accordingly, no offer of
the Shares may be made to the public in Germany. This Presentation and any other document relating to the Share, as well as information or statements contained therein, may not be supplied to the public in Germany or used in connection with any offer for subscription of the interests to the public in Germany or any other means of public marketing.
An offer of the Shares exclusively to credit institutions and financial services providers as defined in the German Banking Act, private or public insurance companies, investment companies and their investment managers as well as pension funds and their administrators is not deemed to be a public distribution.
The opinions expressed here represent the views of the fund manager at the time of preparation and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Distribution of this document and the offering of shares in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and accordingly persons into whose possession this document comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe
such restrictions. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.
Further detailed information regarding the Fund, its Prospectus, its latest annual reports and any subsequent half-yearly reports (including information on how to switch, buy and sell shares of the Fund and other share classes available), is available free of charge from Ignis Investment Services Ltd. You can also obtain these documents through our website
www.ignisasset.com/international
This fund is available for public distribution in Luxembourg and the United Kingdom.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
The fund takes long and short positions based on the fund manager’s views of the market direction. This means the fund’s performance is unlikely to track the performance of broader bond and equity markets. While this creates the opportunity for the fund to deliver positive returns in falling markets, it also means that the fund could deliver negative returns in rising markets. The
value of investments and any income from them can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. Exchange rate movements may cause the value of investments to fluctuate.
The fund is a sub fund of Ignis Global Funds SICAV, an investment company organised under the laws of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg as a Self Managed SICAV. The investment company has its registered office at Vertigo-Polaris, 2-4 Eugene Ruppert, L-2453 Luxembourg, and is authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) in Luxembourg. The sub fund is a Recognised Scheme in the UK under Section 264 of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 and is promoted in the UK accordingly. This document has been issued by Ignis
Investment Services on behalf of Ignis Global Funds SICAV. Ignis Investment Services is registered in Scotland Number SC101825. Registered Office: 50 Bothwell Street, Glasgow G2 6HR.
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
November 11Ignis Absolute Return Government Bond Fund