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TEXPO Conference 2020: Essential Learning for CTP Candidates Session #11 (Fri, 9/04, 8:30 9:30 am) ETM6-Chapter 14: Cash Forecasting ETM6-Chapter 16: Enterprise Risk Mgmt ETM6-Chapter 17: Financial Risk Mgmt © 2020 The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 1 Essentials of Treasury Management, 6th Ed. (ETM6) is published by the AFP which holds the copyright and all rights to the related materials. As a prep course for the CTP exam, significant portions of these lectures are based on materials from the Essentials text.

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Page 1: Essential Learning for CTP Candidates...indirect losses resulting from external events that impact an organization’s operations, or inadequate and failed internal processes, people

TEXPO Conference 2020:

Essential Learning for CTP CandidatesSession #11 (Fri, 9/04, 8:30 – 9:30 am)

❖ ETM6-Chapter 14:

Cash Forecasting

❖ ETM6-Chapter 16:

Enterprise Risk Mgmt

❖ ETM6-Chapter 17:

Financial Risk Mgmt

© 2020 – The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 1

Essentials of Treasury Management, 6th Ed. (ETM6) is published by the AFP

which holds the copyright and all rights to the related materials.

As a prep course for the CTP exam, significant portions of these lectures are

based on materials from the Essentials text.

Page 2: Essential Learning for CTP Candidates...indirect losses resulting from external events that impact an organization’s operations, or inadequate and failed internal processes, people

ETM6: Chapter 14

❖ Cash Flow Forecasting

2

Essentials of Treasury Management, 6th Ed. (ETM6) is published by the AFP,

which holds the copyright and all rights to the related materials.

As a prep course for the CTP exam, significant portions of these lectures are

based on materials from the Essentials text.

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Overview of Chapter 14 Topics

Introduction

Purpose of Cash Forecasting

Issues and Opportunities in Forecasting

Types of Forecasts

The Forecasting Process

Forecasting Methods

Best Practices For Cash Forecasting

3

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Introduction to Cash Flow

Forecasting Goal is to optimize future cash

resources

Assists a treasury professional in

planning cash management activities

Cash forecasts are more concerned with cash

projections as opposed to financial statements

Four Steps to Cash Flow Forecasting:

◦ Establish assumptions

◦ Estimate future cash inflows and outflows

◦ Generate a pro-forma cash position

◦ Identify how to finance deficits or invest surpluses

4©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Purpose of Cash Forecasting

Managing Liquidity

Maximizing Returns

Controlling Financial Activities

Meeting Strategic Objectives

Budgeting Capital

Managing Costs

Managing Currency Exposure

Complying with Regulatory Requirements

5©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Projected Closing Cash Position

A treasury professional arrives at the

projected closing cash position by taking:◦ The day’s opening available bank balance(s)

◦ Adding the expected settlements in the collection

(lockbox, wire and ACH) and concentration

accounts,

◦ Deducting the projected disbursement totals

Information about checks in the process of

collection and ACH credits is available from

prior day balance reports

Lockbox and controlled disbursement totals

are reported on a same-day basis

Other clearings must be estimated

Estimated closing position determines

surplus or deficit for the day

6©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Forecasting Process

Cash Flow Components

◦ “A broken-down forecast is good”

Degree of Certainty

◦ Certain Cash Flows

◦ Predictable Cash Flows

◦ Less-Predictable Cash Flows

◦ Volatile Cash Flows

7©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Forecasting Process - Continued

Data Identification and Organization◦ Available information

◦ Assumptions

◦ Desired type of forecast

◦ Source of information

◦ Bank account structure

◦ Reporting requirements

◦ Historical data

Selection and Validation of Forecasting Methods◦ Establishing data relationships

◦ Selecting a method

Testing & Validation Relationships◦ Validation (In-sample, Out-of-sample, Ongoing)

◦ Documenting the process

◦ Use of technology

8©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Forecasting Methods

Short-term Methods◦ Accounts receivable balance pattern forecast

◦ Distribution forecast

◦ Receipts and disbursements (cash budget)

Medium and Long-term Methods◦ Developing pro-forma statements with the

percentage of sales approach

Statistical Forecasting◦ Time-series forecasting Simple moving average vs. exponential smoothing

◦ Correlation & Regression

9©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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A/R Balance Pattern Forecast

Used to forecast collections

from credit sales.

The A/R pattern is used to

determine a collection pattern

which can forecast cash

inflows.

The objective is to use

forecasts of sales revenues

and the pattern of collections

to determine the receipts side

of the R&D forecast.

10©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Data for A/R Pattern Forecast

11

Source: ETM6 - © AFP

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Distribution Method Forecast

Example

A company has used regression analysis to estimate the proportion of dollars that will clear on a given business day. It has determined that this proportion depends on the number of business days since the checks were distributed. The estimated proportions are given below.

Business Days Since Distribution Percentage of $ Expected to Clear

1 13%

2 38%

3 28%

4 13%

5 8%

Total 100%

12

Source: ETM6 - © AFP

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Distribution Method Forecast

Provides estimates of the

cash flow effect of a

single event, on a daily

basis over a specified

interval based on

historical patterns.

The distribution method

is particularly appropriate

for short-term forecasts.

13©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Distribution Method ForecastTherefore, if $100,000 in checks are distributed on Wednesday, May 1,

the checks are estimated to clear according to the schedule below.

Date

Business Days

After

Distribution

Day of the

Week

% of

Dollars

Clearing

Forecast

Dollars

Clearing

May 2 1 Thur. 13% $ 13,000

May 3 2 Fri. 38% $ 38,000

May 6 3 Mon. 28% $ 28,000

May 7 4 Tues. 13% $ 13,000

May 8 5 Wed. 8% $ 8,000

Total 100% $ 100,000

14

Source: ETM6 - © AFP

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Receipts and Disbursements (R&D) Forecasting Method

Why forecast receipts and

disbursements?

◦ Determine borrowing requirements

◦ Establish debt repayment schedules

◦ Formulate investment strategies

Receipts and disbursements forecast

◦ One of most common methods

◦ Predicted cash inflows and outflows lead

to excess (deficit) forecast

◦ Also known as the cash budget

15©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Receipts & Disbursements

Forecast

Fundamental to short-term cash forecasting

Separate receipts & disbursements schedules

Both prepared on a cash basis

Method can be accurate in the short-term and near medium-term, especially when based on accounts receivable and accounts payable data.

16©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Receipts & Disbursements

Forecast

$ Amounts in $1,000 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3

Cash Receipts $ 1,000 $ 1,000 $ 950

Cash Disbursements ( 870) (1,350) (1,000)

Net Cash Flow $ 130 $ (350) $(50)

Beginning Cash

Balance$ 100 $ 230 $ (120)

Ending Cash Balance $ 230 $ (120) $ (170)

Minimum Cash Req. 50 50 50

Financing Needed ($ 170) ($ 220)

Investable Funds $ 150

17

Source: ETM6 - © AFP

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Pro Forma Financial

Statements

Projected income statements and balance sheets can form the basis of predicted cash flows over a longer forecast horizon

Projected statements are based on the percentage-of-sales method

18©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Five-Period Moving Avg Forecast

19

Day Actual Cash

Flow (Xt)

Forecast

(N = 5)

Error

(Act –F)

1 890,000

2 812,500

3 775,000

4 754,000

5 716,000

6 748,500 789,500 - 41,000

7 1,009,000 761,200 247,800

8 824,000 800,500 23,500

9 874,000 810,300 63,700

10 955,000 834,380 120,620

Moving Average Forecast for Day 7 is:

(812,500 + 775,000 + 754,000 + 716,000 + 748,500) / 5 = 761,200

Which results in a forecast error of: 1,009,000 – 761,200 = 247,800Source: ETM6 - © AFP

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Forecast with Exponential Smoothing

20

Day Actual

Cash Flow

(Xt)

Forecast

(α=0.40)

(Ft)

Error

6 $ 748,500 $ 789,500 - $ 5,400

7 $ 1,009,000 $ 773,100 $ 235,900

8 $ 824,000 $ 867,460 - $ 43,460

9 $ 874,400 $ 850,076 $ 24,324

−t+1 t tF = αX + (1 α)(F )

The exponential smoothing forecast begins with the Day 6

Forecast of $789,500 based on the moving average forecast.

Then, the Day 7 forecast using exponential smoothing is:

F7 = 0.40(748,500) + (1 – 0.40)(789,500) = $773,100

This results in a forecast error of: $1,009,000 – $773,100 = $235,900Source: ETM6 - © AFP

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Correlation & Regression

Analysis

Correlation calculations involve astatistical identification of the degreeof association between a cash flow and another variable

This can be used in the building of a forecast

Regression analysis is a statistical method that assesses the impact that multiple variables (or causes) have on a value or an outcome

Linear least squares method is the most commonly used

21©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Best Practices for Cash Forecasting

22

Use appropriate detail

Disclose assumptions

Use the appropriate

platform

Invest the appropriate

amount of resources

Validate the forecast

Cooperate and communicate

Ensure the forecast is useable

©2020 The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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ETM6: Chapter 16

❖ Enterprise Risk Management

23

Essentials of Treasury Management, 6th Ed. (ETM6) is published by the AFP,

which holds the copyright and all rights to the related materials.

As a prep course for the CTP exam, significant portions of these lectures are

based on materials from the Essentials text.

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Overview of Chapter 16 Topics

General Risk Management

Enterprise Risk Management

(ERM)

Operational Risk Management

Disaster Recovery/Business

Continuity

Managing Insurable Risks

24

© 2020 – The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Introduction

The purpose of the risk management

process in an organization is to:

◦ Help managers identify future events

that create uncertainty

◦ Respond to negative possibilities by

balancing the negative economic and/or

regulatory effects against the costs to

mitigate or eliminate them

◦ Provide direction to guide recovery

action when serious negative events

occur

25© 2020 – The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)

Comprehensive, organization-wide approach to identifying, measuring,and managing the various risksthat threaten the achievementof the organization’s strategic objectives

Ascertains if and how each department contributes to, or is impacted by, a particular risk category

ERM’s comprehensive approachallows the full scope of risk to be assessed across division lines

26© 2020 – The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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More on the Risk Management Process

Determine Risk Tolerance

Identifying Potential Exposures◦ Clearly in terms of both level and impact

Quantify the Exposure◦ Both quantitative and qualitative assessment

Compare current levels of risk to the target level of risk.

Develop and Implement an Appropriate Risk

Management Strategy◦ Avoid the Risk

◦ Mitigate the Risk

◦ Transfer the Risk

◦ Retain the Risk

Monitoring the Exposure

Review and Modify the

Strategy as Needed

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Business-wide risks

Market Risk◦ Equity Price Risk

◦ Interest Rate Risk

◦ FX Risk

◦ Commodity price

Credit Risk

Operational Risk

Liquidity Risk

Legal and Regulatory Compliance Risk

Event Risk

Strategic and Business Risk

Geopolitical Risk

Reputation Risk

Cyber Risk

28© 2020 – The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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Who is Responsible for Risk?

Direct Responsibility of Treasury◦ Market Risk

◦ Credit Risk

◦ Liquidity Risk

Other Types of Risk◦ Operational Risk

◦ Legal and Regulatory Risk

◦ Event Risk

◦ Business Risk

◦ Strategic Risk

◦ Reputation Risk

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Cyberrisk Security breaches involving employee,

customer, and corporate data

Breaches may come from both internaland external sources

◦ May include data corruption or theft

◦ Denial of service attacks

◦ Current and former employees represent the

primary source of cyberrisk for an organization

◦ External sources include hackers, activists,

financial criminals and intellectual property thieves

◦ Cyerrisk insurance may be available

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Operational Risk Management Generally defined as the risk of direct and

indirect losses resulting from external events

that impact an organization’s operations, or

inadequate and failed internal processes,

people and systems.

Operational risk can be a significant cause of

financial loss.

Most financial disasters are attributed to a

combination of exposure to market or credit

risk, along with some failure of controls or the

internal audit function.

In many cases a single employee can cause

a major disaster when controls are lacking

31

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Operational Risks related to Treasury Internal Operational Risks◦ Employee Risk

◦ Process Risk

◦ Technology Risk

External Operational Risks

◦ Financial Institutional Risk

◦ Counterparty Risk

◦ Legal and Regulatory Compliance Risk

◦ Sovereign Risk

◦ Supplier Risk

◦ External Theft/Fraud Risk

◦ Physical and Electronic Security Risk

◦ Event Risk

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Techniques Used to Measure Risk

Sensitivity Analysis◦ Examines the impact of a change in the value of a

variable on a selected outcome measure

Scenario Analysis◦ Similar to sensitivity analysis, but changes more than

one variable at a time

Value at Risk (VaR)◦ Developed in FI trading rooms to estimate the possible

losses for an entire trading operation in a one-day period

Cash Flow at Risk (CaR)◦ A variation of VaR used to assess the risk of cash

shortfall over a longer period of time

Monte Carlo Simulation◦ A sophisticated extension of sensitivity analysis that

employs a series of probability distributions of input

variables to a model in order to determine the distribution

of the output variable(s) of interest

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Managing Insurable Risks Insurance is a method for transferring

and/or mitigating risk with 4 specific

goals:

◦ Insure against catastrophic loss

◦ Decide when and what to insure

◦ Manage the purchase and use of insurance

◦ Obtain efficient pricing for insurance needs

Using Insurance Contracts to Manage

Risk

Dealing with Insurance Providers

Insurance Risk Management Services

Risk Financing Techniques

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Disaster Recovery and

Business Continuity

Disaster Recovery

◦ Refers to restoration of treasury systems and

communications after an event causes an outage

Business Continuity

◦ Refers to actions taken with regard to crisis

management, alternative operating procedures,

and communications to staff and customers

Key Parties in Financial Supply Chain

◦ Internal Resources: treasury staff, systems, etc.

◦ External Financial Counterparties: FIs, market

information providers, vendors, markets

35© 2020 – The Treasury Academy, Inc. - All Rights Reserved

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ETM6: Chapter 17

❖ Financial Risk Management

36© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved

Essentials of Treasury Management, 6th Ed. (ETM6) is published by the AFP,

which holds the copyright and all rights to the related materials.

As a prep course for the CTP exam, significant portions of these lectures are

based on materials from the Essentials text.

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Overview of Chapter 17 Topics

Overview of Financial Risk

Management

Managing Financial Risk

Derivative Instruments as Financial

Risk Management Tools

Managing Interest Rate Exposure

Managing Foreign Exchange

Exposure

Managing Commodity Price Exposure

Accounting and Tax Implications of

Financial Risk Management

Hedging Policy Statement

37

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved

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Basics of Financial Risk

Management Financial risk is the risk of direct or

indirect losses resulting from uncertainties surrounding the future levels of interest and FX rates, as well as commodity prices.

It is treasury’s responsibility to take actions that mitigate these financial risks

Financial risk has increased significantly in recent years due to:

◦ The speed of business brought about by advances in technology and communications

◦ The scope of business brought about by the trend toward globalization

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 38

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Key Financial Risk Issues Interest Rate Risk

Foreign Exchange (FX) Risk

◦ Economic

◦ Transaction

◦ Translation

◦ Implicit versus Explicit FX Risk

Commodity/Input Price Risk

Managing Financial Risk

◦ Natural Hedges and Correlations

◦ Active Hedging

◦ Speculation versus Arbitrage

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 39

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Hedging, Speculation and Arbitrage

Hedging Reducing or eliminating risk

associated with the uncertain future

price of an owned asset.

Speculation Assuming risk and betting on the

direction of the market and whether

the price of an asset will go up

(long) or down (short).

Arbitrage Assuming no risk but attempting to

profit from market inefficiencies by

buying an asset in one market and

simultaneously selling in another.

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 40

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Benefits of Financial Risk

Management

Greater predictability in future cash flows makes the company more attractive to shareholders.

The company gains an enhanced borrowing advantage in credit markets because lenders view the firm as being less risky.

The company’s probability offinancial distress decreasesbecause the firm can assesscosts and revenues more accurately.

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 41

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Derivative Instruments as Financial

Risk Management Tools

A derivative instrument is a financial

product that derives its value through a

connection to another asset

The four primary derivatives used are:

◦ Forwards

◦ Futures

◦ Swaps

◦ Options

ISDA master agreement

42© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved

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Forward Contracts

Asset involved is called the underlying asset.

Future date (maturity date of the contract).

Price is delivery price of contract.

Company buying asset is one party; the other is called the counterparty (bank or FX dealer).

Buying party is long a forward contract; counterparty is short a forward contract.

At maturity, delivery of theunderlying asset usually takes place

Used to lock-in prices/availability

A customized agreement between two parties to

buy or sell a fixed amount of an asset at a future

date at a price agreed upon today

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 43

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Payoffs for Forward Contracts

Long Position Short Position

Asset Price

Profit

Gain when

asset price

risesDelivery

price

Loss when

asset price falls

Profit

Asset Price

Loss when

asset price

rises

Delivery price

Gain when

asset price

falls

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 44

Source: ETM3 - © AFP

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Futures Contracts

Similar to forwards in intent (payoff profiles

from long and short positions are the same)

but differ in execution (e.g., counterparty

is the exchange itself).

Size of contract and its maturity

date set by exchange.

Trading requires a margin account.

Futures contracts are rarely settled by

actual delivery and are usually closed

out prior to maturity.

Profit/loss from future offsets Loss/profit from

business transaction

A standardized contract between two parties

traded on an organized exchange

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 45

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Swap Agreements

Types of swaps include:

◦ Currency swap -- obligation in one

currency swapped into another

currency

◦ Commodity swap -- floating

commodity price swapped for fixed

price

◦ Interest rate swap -- fixed rate

swapped for floating rate

An agreement between two parties to exchange

(swap) a set of cash flows at a future point in time

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 46

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Options

Writer of the option: Counterparty selling the option receives

a premium from the buyer

May be exchange traded or negotiated with a counterparty

Call option: Contract giving the owner the right to buy an

asset

Put option: Contract giving the owner the right to sell an asset

Strike/exercise price: The fixed or contracted price of the

underlying asset

American option: exercise any time through delivery date

Bermudan option: exercise at specified dates over option life

European option: exercise only on delivery date

A contract where one party has the right (but not the

obligation) to buy or sell a fixed amount of an

underlying asset at a fixed price through a specified

date

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 47

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Pricing of Options

The premium (or price) of an option represents

a combination of intrinsic value and time value

Intrinsic Value

◦ Determined by the relationship between the option’s

strike price and the price of the underlying instrument

in the open market

◦ In-the-Money vs. Out-of-the-Money

Time Value

◦ This is the part of the premium that is based on the

probability that the value of the underlying asset will

increase or decrease over the life of the contract

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 48

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Relationship Between an Option

Premium and Strike (Exercise) Price

Call or

put

option

At-the-money If the underlying asset price

is equal to the strike price

of the option

Call

option

Out-of-the-

money

If the asset price is less

than the strike price of the

option

Put

option

Out-of-the-

money

If the asset price exceeds

the strike price of the

option

Call

option

In-the-money If the asset price is greater

than the strike price of the

option

Put

option

In-the-money If the asset price is less

than the strike price of the

option

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 49Source: ETM6 - © AFP

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Call Option Pricing

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 50

Source: ETM6 - © AFP

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Benefits of Options

Companies use options in a variety of ways, including to safeguard their profit margins or to protect contingent positions

Options provide a degree of certainty in volatile markets – setting floors or ceilings on prices of key items

They can be a useful tool to guarantee a certain asset price (often FX rates) when bidding on a business contract or during M&A activity

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 51

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Interest Rate Exposure and

Risk Management

Many organizations face financial risks attributable to interest rate changes.

The risk exposure arises from the nature of the firm’s operating and/or financing activities.

Organizations with variable interest rate investments face the possibility of lower earnings when interest rates fall, while organizations with debt tied to variable interest rates face higher borrowing costs when interest rates rise.

Interest rate forwards (including forward rate agreements), futures, swaps and options are typical instruments used to manage interest rate risk.

52

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Interest Rate Forwards

Locks in the future price of an asset

Buyer has to pay the agreed-upon-price on the

settlement date

Seller is required to deliver the asset on the

settlement date

No up-front fee or margin required

Interest rate forwards are typically cash-settled

rather than through delivery

One party is obligated to pay the other the

difference between the contract value of the

forward and its spot value at the maturity date

Most popular type: Forward Rate Agreement (FRA)

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Settlement Amount for FRA Settlement amount is calculated from the interest differential

on the settlement date

The settlement amount must be adjusted to reflect it is paid at

the beginning of the FRA period rather than at the end

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( )s c

s

c

dInterest Differential r r Notional Principal

y

Where:

r = Settlement Rate

r = Contract Rate

d = Numer of Days in the Period

y = Number of Days in the Year

= −

s

Interest DifferentialSettlement Amount =

d1+ r ×

y

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FRA Calculation Example

A company wants to borrow $1M for three months, starting

four months from now.

It purchases a 4x7 FRA at a contract rate of 2.3% (rc)

On settlement date, the reference 3-month rate is 2.4% (rs)

Assume a 92-day period (d) and 360-day year (y)

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( )

( )

s c

dInterest Differential r r Notional Principal

y

920.024 0.023 $1M $255.50

360

= −

= − =

s

Interest DifferentialSettlement Amount =

d1+ r ×

y

$255.50= $253.94

921+ 0.024×

360

=

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Interest Rate Futures Contracts on an underlying asset whose

price is dependent solely on the level of interest rates

The most popular types are U.S. T-bill contracts and Eurodollar contracts traded on the CME as bank CDs

Underlying asset in a T-bills futures contract is the 90-day T-bill rate

Most actively traded long-term interest rate contracts are 5 and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds

Margin accounts aretypically required

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Interest Rate Swaps

An OTC agreement between

2 parties to exchange the cash

flows of two different securities

throughout the life of the contract

Can be viewed as series of forwards, and the

contract is binding on both sides of the contract.

A very flexible hedging instrument used by

treasury for asset/liability management and by

portfolio managers to reduce or extend the

average maturity or exposure of an open

position

Most common type is fixed-floating swap

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Interest Rate Options

Option-type derivatives where the payoff depends on the level of interest rates

Basic types of options include:

◦ Interest rate cap: caps the rate on a floating-rate loan for a borrower

◦ Interest rate floor: provides a floor on the rate paid to an investor

◦ Interest rate collar: combination of a cap and a floor – locking in a range for the rates

◦ Costless collar: income received on selling a floor to lender matches premium paid by borrower to get cap

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Foreign Exchange (FX) Exposure

Foreign Exchange (FX) Rates

◦ FX rates are quoted in several ways,

depending on the currencies and the

markets involved

◦ An FX rate is expressed as the

equivalent unit of one currency per

unit of another currency at a given

moment in time

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Sample Foreign Currency

Quotation Formats

Most common formats are in Bold/Italic

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Currency USD

Equivalent

Unit of Currency

per one USD

GBP-British pound GBP/USD 1.3199 USD/GBP 0.7576

CAD-Canadian dollar CAD/USD 0.7744 USD/CAD 1.2914

EUR-Euro EUR/USD 1.1307 USD/EUR 0.8844

JPY-Japanese yen JPY/USD 0.009976 USD/JPY 100.24

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Foreign Exchange (FX) Rates

Example: The quoted rate

for the USD equivalent is

EUR/USD 1.1307. How

many euros would $2

million buy?

Example: The quoted rate

for the USD equivalent is

GBP/USD 1.3199. How

many pounds would $2

million buy?

$2,000,000 = EUR1,768,816

1.1307

$2,000,000 = GBP1,515,266

1.3199

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Foreign Exchange (FX) Rates

Example: The quoted

rate for the Japanese

yen USD/JPY 100.25.

How many yen would $2

million purchase?

Example: The quoted

rate for the Can. dollar is

USD/CAD 1.2914.

CAD2,000,000 would be

equivalent to how many

USD?

CAD2,000,000 = USD1,548,707

1.2914

x$2,000,000 100.25

= JPY200,500,000

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Foreign Exchange (FX) Rates:

Bid-Offer Spreads and Dealer Profit

Bid rate: Dealer buys currency

Offer rate: Dealer sells currency

Bid/offer spread or bid/ask spread:Difference between rates (dealer’s profit)

Dealer bid-offer quote; e.g., USD/JPY 100.22/26

ScenarioCompany

Delivers

Dealer

Buys

Dealer

Sells

Company

Receives

Company wants

to buy JPY

USD USD at bid

rate

(JPY100.22)

JPY JPY

Company wants

to sell JPY for

USD

JPY JPY USD at

offer rate

(JPY100.26)

USD

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Foreign Exchange (FX) Markets

Spot Market (spot rate)

Forward Market (forward rate)◦ Par

◦ Discount

◦ Premium

◦ Points

Interest RateParity

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FX Rate Exposure

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FX Rate Exposure

Types of FX Exposure

◦ Economic

◦ Transaction

◦ Translation

• Types of Derivatives

◦ Currency or FX forwards

◦ Currency futures

◦ Currency swaps

◦ Currency

options

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Currency or FX Forwards A commitment to buy or sell a specified

amount of foreign currency on a future date at an agreed-upon exchange rate

Available in most major currencies in maturities of 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months

Because these are credit instruments, the dealer or counterparty is often a bank

The forward rate depends on 3 factors:◦ The current spot rate

◦ The term of the forward contract

◦ Current interest rates in the twocountries during the term

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Types of Forwards

Window Forwards◦ A variation on the standard forward contract

◦ Allows for settlement during a given “window” of time

◦ Provides flexibility in dealing uncertainty over the actual

delivery date

Average-rate Forwards◦ A tool that is used when the hedger will be trading funds at

some point in the future, but does not know the exact dates

and volumes of the individual trades

◦ Allows the user to lock in forward points and a spot rate

today

Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDFs)◦ Typically used with exotic currencies, considered a “proxy:

hedge

◦ A synthetic instrument that is cash-settled in a major base

currency

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Currency Futures

Similar to currency forwards except

that futures are traded on organized

exchanges and are standardized in

terms of their amount and maturity date

Contracts are generally offered for 6-month

maturities in a quarterly cycle

© 2017– The Treasury Academy - All Rights Reserved 69

Source: ETM6 - © AFPNote: CHF is the designation for the Swiss franc.

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Commodity Price Exposure

Most common markets are for agricultural and meat products, oil and gas, minerals and metals

Commodity price exposure includes price exposure and delivery exposure

Commodity price risk can be managed by using forwards, futures, swaps, options or combinations of these derivative instruments

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Other Issues Related to Financial Risk Mgmt

Accounting Issues

Valuation and Disclosure of Derivative

Instruments

◦ What is the right value?

◦ What if the markets are volatile or illiquid?

Guidelines for Disclosure (Topic 815)

◦ A discussion on the company’s objectives and

strategies for using derivatives

◦ The current fair market value of the company’s

derivative positions

◦ Any contingent, credit-related features of the

company’s derivative positions

◦ Locations and amounts of derivatives in the

company’s financial statements

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Other Financial Risk Mgmt Issues

Tax Issues Related to Hedging

◦ Can be very complex and

errors can be costly

Hedging Policy Statement

◦ Requires approval of general hedging policy

and implementation of that policy

◦ Should address FX, interest rate and

commodity hedging

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Session Wrap-upETM6: Chapters 14, 16 & 17

73

What did we learn in this session?

What topics do we need to learn more about?

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TEXPO Conference 2020

Essential Learning for CTP Candidates

End of This Session

We will reconvene at 10:00 am Today

The topic will be:

All About the Transactions

Disbursements, Collections

& Concentration

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