environment impacts of energy sector...

ENVIRONMENT IMPACTS OF ENERGY

SECTOR (NON-RENEWABLE)

Suresh Jain, Ph.D. Professor and Head

Department of Natural Resources

TERI University, New Delhi-110070

Email: [email protected]; [email protected]

Training schedule for environment audit of infrastructure and

renewable energy projects (17th to 21st August, 2015)

Non-renewable energy sources

Non-renewable energy is energy from fossil fuels

such as coal, crude oil, natural gas and uranium.

Fossil fuels are mainly made up of Carbon.

Usage of non-renewable energy resources

Source: November 15, 2014: www.globalpost.com

Usage of non-renewable energy resources

Growth in coal consumption slows in

the non-OECD

Source: Energy Outlook 2035

Background – Indian context

The energy sector is the major contributor to

economic and industrial accomplishments as well

as a pre-requisite for providing the basic human

needs.

In India, the main source of electricity generation is

coal, which contributes to about ~56% of the

electricity generation, whereas natural gas also

contributes a significant ~10% towards electricity

generation.

Overview of installed generation capacity

of power in India

REGION

Installed capacity (MW)

Thermal

Nuclear HYDRO RES* TOTALCOAL GAS DSL TOTAL

Northern 29924 4671 13 34608 1620 15424 4438 56089

Western 42479 8255 17 50752 1840 7448 8147 68186

Southern 23032 4963 939 28935 1320 11338 11769 53362

Eastern 22338 190 17 2254 0 3882 411 26838

N. Eastern 60 824 143 1027 0 1200 228 2455

Islands - - 70 70 0 0 6 76

All India 117833 18903 1199 117646 4780 39291 24998 207006

*RES - Renewable Energy Sources includes Small Hydro Project(SHP), Biomass Gas(BG), Biomass Power(BP), Urban &

Industrial waste Power(U&I), and Wind Energy categorized by Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Govt. of India.Source: CEA, 2012

Overview of installed generation capacity of

power in India

COAL57%

GAS9%

DSL1%

Nuclear2%

Hydro19%

RES12%

Classifying the impacts of energy use

By source

For example, oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, biomass, hydroelectricity etc.

By pollutant

Pb, CO, Nox, SOx, RSPM (PM1, PM2.5 and PM10), SPM, HC, VOC, CH4 etc.

By scale

Household scale

wood burning in developing countries

Workplace scale

Biomass harvesting and forestry

Hydro and wind power

Coal, oil and gas

Nuclear power

Community scale

Sulphur dioxide, NOx, CO, Dioxins etc.

Regional scale

Acid deposition

Global scale

Global climate change

Impact on human health

The impact pathway approach

PM2.5 (2031: Winter)PM2.5 (2011: Winter)

By 2011/12, most cities in the country had already exceeded the ambient air quality standard

• In 2011/12 mortality from PM 2.5 was 5.73 lakhs

• In future, the air quality worsens increasing the mortality to 10.4 lakhs (2031/32)

Source: TERI’s Integrated MARKAL, WRF, CMAQ Models Results

14

Regional scale air quality in India -2011 and

projections for Reference Scenario 2031

Mortality due to PM2.5 under various

policy intervention's/scenarios

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

BAU 2011 BAU 2031 BAU 2051 ES 2031 ES 2051 CS 2031 CS2051

Mo

rtality

in

millio

ns

Case study

Examples from thermal power

Life cycle assessment -

a case study of thermal power plant

Methodology

The CML 2001 and Eco-Indicator 99 (H) methods have

been used for midpoint and endpoint impacts,

respectively using life cycle analysis (LCA).

This study uses ISO 14040 methodology along with

‘cradle to gate’ approach which includes upstream and

power generation processes.

The primary data collected by personal visits for air

emissions, wastewater, fuel used, and technical

specifications.

The impacts category comprised of global warming,

acidification, eutrophication, ecotoxicity, carcinogens,

respiratory organics, respiratory inorganics and climate

change.

Environmental impact assessment

Source: Eco indicator 1999-H method would be used for environmental impact assessment using LCA approach

LCA framework used

to estimate the life

cycle environmental

impacts from NGCC

thermal power plant

Source: Agrawal, K., Jain, S., Jain, A.K.,

Dahiya, S., 2014. Assessment of

Environmental Impacts of Natural Gas

Combined Cycle Power Plant using life cycle

approach. Environmental Development ,

doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2014.04.002

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2014.04.002

Boundary conditions

Global warming and climate change

potential - NGCC thermal power plant

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Combustion process Remaining process

GW

P (

kg C

O2 e

q./

kW

h)

(a) Global Warming Potential (CML)

0.0E+00

2.0E-08

4.0E-08

6.0E-08

8.0E-08

1.0E-07

1.2E-07

Combustion process Remaining process

CC

P (

DA

LY

/kW

h)

(b) Climate Change potential (Eco-Indicator)

Human health damage potential - NGCC

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Combustion process Remaining processes

HT

P (

kg

1,4

-DB

eq

./k

Wh

)

(a) Human Toxicity potential (CML 2001)

5.08E-08

5.1E-08

5.12E-08

5.14E-08

5.16E-08

5.18E-08

5.2E-08


Res

pir

ato

ry i

no

rga

nic

s (D

AL

Y/k

Wh

)

(c) Respiratory Inorganics potential

(Eco-Indicator-99)

0

5E-11

1E-10

1.5E-10

2E-10

2.5E-10

3E-10

3.5E-10

4E-10


Res

pir

ato

ry o

rga

nic

s (D

AL

Y/k

Wh

)

(d) Respiratory Organics potential

(Eco-Indicator-99)

0

5E-10

1E-09

1.5E-09

2E-09

2.5E-09

3E-09


CP

(D

AL

Y/k

Wh

)

(b) Carcinogens potential (Eco-Indicator-99)

Global

warming and

climate change

potential of 1

kWh electricity

generation –

Imported coal

vs. natural gas

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Upstream + Combustionprocesses

Combustion process

GW

P (

kg

CO

2 e

q./

kW

h) (a) Global Warming Potential (IPCC 2001)

Imported coal NGCC

0.0E+00

5.0E-08

1.0E-07

1.5E-07

2.0E-07

2.5E-07

3.0E-07

3.5E-07

Upstream + Combustionprocesses

Combustion process

CC

P (

DA

LY

/kW

h)

(b) Climate Change Potential (Eco-Indicator 99-H)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

Total of all processes Combustion process

kg

1,4

-DB

eq

.

(a) Human Toxicity Impacts (CML 2001)

Coal TPP with FGD Coal TPP without FGD Natural Gas TPP

0.0E+00

5.0E-11

1.0E-10

1.5E-10

2.0E-10

2.5E-10

3.0E-10

3.5E-10

4.0E-10

4.5E-10


DA

LY

(c) Respiratory Organic Impacts (Eco-Indicator 99-H)


0.0E+00

2.0E-08

4.0E-08

6.0E-08

8.0E-08

1.0E-07

1.2E-07

1.4E-07


DA

LY

(d) Carcinogenic Impacts (Eco-Indicator99-H)


0.0E+00

3.0E-07

6.0E-07

9.0E-07

1.2E-06

1.5E-06

1.8E-06


DA

LY

(b) Respiratory Inorganics Impacts (Eco-Indicator 99-H)


Human health damage potential

0.E+00

2.E-03

4.E-03

6.E-03

8.E-03

1.E-02

1.E-02

1.E-02

2.E-02


kg

SO

2 e

q.

(a) Acidification Impacts (CML 2001)

0.E+00

2.E-04

4.E-04

6.E-04

8.E-04

1.E-03

1.E-03

1.E-03


kg

PO

4 e

q.

(b) Eutrophication Impacts (CML 2001)

0.0E+00

5.0E-03

1.0E-02

1.5E-02

2.0E-02

2.5E-02

3.0E-02

3.5E-02

4.0E-02


PD

F×

m2 ×

yr

(c) Acidification/ Eutrophication Impacts (Eco-Indicator 99-H)

Coal TPP with FGD

Coal TPP without FGD

Natural Gas TPP

0.E+00

2.E-02

4.E-02

6.E-02

8.E-02

1.E-01

1.E-01

1.E-01

2.E-01


kg

1,4

-DB

eq

.

(a) Fresh Water Aquatic Toxicity Impacts (CML 2001)

0.E+00

1.E-01

2.E-01

3.E-01

4.E-01

5.E-01

6.E-01


kg

1,4

-DB

eq

.

(b) Marine Water Aquatic Toxicity Impacts (CML 2001)

0.0E+00

2.0E-02

4.0E-02

6.0E-02

8.0E-02

1.0E-01

1.2E-01


PA

F×

m2

×y

r

(c) Ecotoxicity impacts (Eco-Indicator 99-H)

Coal TPP with FGD

Coal TPP without FGD

Natural Gas TPP

Uncertainty analysis for imported coal with

FGD vs. without FGD technology

Conti..

Cost analysis

Parameter Units Coal based TPP Gas based TPP

Fixed Cost Rs/kWh 1.55 1.54

Variable Cost Rs/kWh 2.11 3.09

Total Cost Rs/kWh 3.66 4.63

Economic analysis

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

PC - Importedcoal

PC + FGD PC + CCS PC + CCS +FGD

IGCC SC NGCC

To

tal

co

st

(Rs

./k

Wh

)

Alternate Power Generation Technology

Technology cost (Rs./kWh) Total hidden cost (Rs. kWh)

References

Agrawal, K., Jain, S., Jain, A.K., Dahiya, S., 2014. Assessment of

Environmental Impacts of Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant using

life cycle approach. Environmental Development,

doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2014.04.002.

Agrawal, K., Jain, S., Jain, A.K., Dahiya, S., 2014. Assessment of

greenhouse gas emissions from imported coal and natural gas combined

cycle thermal power plants using life cycle approach in India. International

Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 11(4): 1157-64.

Cobert, A., 2009. Environmental Comparison of Michelin Tweel™ And

Pneumatic Tire using Life Cycle Analysis, Georgia Institute of Technology.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2014.04.002

Bibliography

http://www.slideshare.net/sandeep7162/analysis-of-environmental-

impact-on-oil-gas-company?related=1

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18491

http://www.slideshare.net/sandeep7162/analysis-of-environmental-impact-on-oil-gas-company?related=1

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=18491

Case study

Impacts from transport sector

Introduction

• Nine districts spread in an area of 1483 square kilometers (in 2011)

• Population is 16.75 million (2011) and projected to grow up to 23 million by 2020

• Largest road network with 7.49 million registered vehicles

• Current traffic volume 182.7 million PKM and projected to increase up to 280.9 million by 2021

Urbanization & transportation in Delhi

• Automobiles cause 66% of total transport-based carbon emissions in Delhi

• Ambient air pollutants from automobile violates NAAQS reflecting poor air quality and deteriorating human health

• Policy interventions till date focus more on controlling the ambient air emissions; while, the impact of urban transport on climate remains unrecognized (Aggarwal and Jain, 2014)

Energy demand and CO2 emissions

Scope of work & objectives

Inventorizing and

characterizing on-road

vehicle activity

Energy demand modeling

Carbon emission

accounting

Future policy intervention

using Scenario Analysis

To assess the impact of transport policy

interventions on energy demand and carbon

emission in Delhi region; using ASIF energy

modelling and scenario analysis approach

Study area

ASI and ASF framework for estimation

of energy demand and CO2 emissions

Where, EEnergy is energy demand from all modes of transport; ECO2-emissionis CO2 emission load from all modes of transport;

‘k’ represents mode-type (scooter, motorcycle, cars, auto, bus and Delhi metro); ‘j’ represents vehicle technology (2/4

stroke); ‘i’ represents fuel type (gasoline/diesel/CNG); represents travel demand activity (in km); represents modal

structure (in percentage); represents vehicle mileage by mode and fuel type (km/kg or km/l); represents fuel-based

calorific value (MJ/kg or MJ/l); represents CO2emission factor (g/km).

ASF framework for estimation of air emissions

According to the ASIF framework

E = A x S x I x F

A is activity level expressed as total travel demand in passenger-kilometers

(PKM). Passenger-kilometer demand by each mode has been estimated using

vehicle kilometers (VKM) travelled and occupancy of each mode.

VKM = Total number of vehicles in each mode x Average vehicle utilization

Travel demand = ∑ PKM = ∑ VKM x Occupancy

S stands for structure, which is the modal split of travel demand.

I is energy intensity i.e. energy consumed per passenger kilometer. Energy

intensity depends upon occupancy and fuel efficiency of the mode.

I = 1/(Mileage x occupancy)

F is emission factor of the fuel used.

Energy consumed in passenger transport = ∑Total passenger kilometers x Share of each mode x Energy intensity of each mode

Total emissions resulting from passenger transport = ∑Energy consumed in passenger transport x emission factors for each of the fuels used in different modes

Scenario analysisScenario Description and Rationale

2007-REF Lines 1 to 3 of the Delhi metro (part of IMRTS), covering a distance of 65 km are taken as

operational

2021-BAU No policy interventions except covered under 2007-REF year

BS IV was introduced in the year 2010 and others have been have been assumed in

accordance to BS III norms, respectively.

2021-ALT-I Full phase of IMRTS implementation, which includes 4 phases of Delhi metro and Bus

Rapid Transit (BRT) system, has been considered by the year 2021 (see SI Table S.3), in

addition to the assumptions taken in 2021-BAU.

2021-ALT-II Two interventions have been added to the 2021-ALT-I scenario, in addition to the

assumptions taken in 2021-BAU –

(i) bus speed has been regulated to 25 km h–1 because of new infrastructural development

for dedicated bus corridors, and (ii) parking fees has been hiked (from Rs. 10-20 to Rs. 60-

200) for private vehicles.

2021-ALT-III One intervention have been added to 2021-ALT-II scenario, in addition to the assumptions

taken in 2021-BAU –

(i) Fuel economy standards have been implemented for gasoline and diesel cars in India,

by 2017 (as proposed by EU).

2021-ALT-IV One intervention have been added to 2021-ALT-II scenario, in addition to the assumptions

taken in 2021-BAU –

(i) Occupancy for two-wheelers has been increased from 1.2 to 1.5 and for car will

increase from 1.8 to 3.

Energy and CO2 emission in 2021 (BAU & ALT)

• Energy demand reduced from 65.4 billion MJ to 44.6 billion MJ (32% reduction)

• CO2 emission reduced from 4.1 million tons to 2.9 million tons

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2021-BAU 2021-ALT-I 2021-ALT-II 2021-ALT-III 2021-ALT-IV

% c

hange in E

nerg

y a

nd C

O2

2021 Scenarios

Energy CO2

Private and public share in 2021 (ALT scenario)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2021-ALT-I 2021-ALT-II 2021-ALT-III 2021-ALT-IV

% c

ha

ng

e in

En

erg

y a

nd

CO

2

2021 Scenario

Energy-Private Energy-Public CO2-Private CO2-Public

Fuel and CNG usage in 2007 and 2021 (All scenario)

• 48% reduction in fuel demand in 2021-ALT-IV

• Demand for electricity increased by 71%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2007-REF 2021-BAU 2021-ALT-I 2021-ALT-II 2021-ALT-III 2021-ALT-IV

Die

se

l (i

n litre

) a

nd

Ele

ctr

icity (

in M

J)*

Gaso

line

(in

litre

) a

nd

CN

G (

in k

g)*

Gasoline (l) CNG (kg) Diesel (l) Electricity (kWh)

Overall Methodology

for Integrated Impact

Assessment

Annual emissions from passenger

transport under different scenarios

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007-BASE 2021-BAU 2021-ALT-I 2021-ALT-II 2021-ALT-III

PM

10

(in

ton

s/y

ea

r)

Em

issio

ns (

in thou

sands tons/y

ear)

CO HC NO2 PM10

3a. CO concentration in 2007 and 2021

2007-BASE 2021-BAU 2021-ALT-I 2021-ALT-II 2021-ALT-

III

2007-BASE 2021-BAU 2021-ALT-I 2021-ALT-II 2021-ALT-III

2007-BASE 2021-BAU 2021-ALT-I 2021-ALT-II 2021-ALT-

III

3b. NO2 concentration in 2007 and 2021

3c. PM10 concentration in 2007 and 2021

Imp

act

on

urb

an

air

qu

ali

ty

5a. CO concentration in 2007 and 2021

2007-BASE-O 2021-BAU-O 2021-ALT-I-O 2021-ALT-II-O 2021-ALT-III-O

5b. NO2 concentration in 2007 and 2021

2007-BASE-O 2021-BAU-O 2021-ALT-I-O 2021-ALT-II-O 2021-ALT-III-O

5c. PM10 concentration in 2007 and 2021

2007-BASE-O 2021-BAU-O 2021-ALT-I-O 2021-ALT-II-O 2021-ALT-III-O 2021-ALT-IV-O

Air quality and health impact of surface

transport in NCTD region

Modes of Transport POLICY SCENARIOS

Passenger 2007-BASE 2021-BAU 2021-ALT-I 2021-ALT-II 2021-ALT-III

NO2 Annual Conc. (μg/m3) 10 13 8 7 8

MortalityRespiratory 4 (4, 0.3) 8 (8, 0.5) 5 (5, 0.3) 4 (4, 0.3) 4 (5, 0.3)

Cardiovascular 24 (25, 2) 47 (49, 3) 29 (30, 2) 26 (27, 2) 27 (28, 2)

Morbidity

Respiratory - - - - -

Cardiovascular24213 (25244,

1849)

46232 (48217,

3395)

29114 (30383,

2108)

25831 (26961,

1866)

27119 (28304,

1961)

DALY

Respiratory 112 (117, 8) 215 (225, 15) 134 (140, 9) 118 (123, 8) 124 (130, 9)


1963)

49124 (51235,

3604)

30923 (32272,

2238)

27434 (28635,

1981)

28803 (30062,

2081)

PM2.5 Annual Conc. (μg/m3) 0.46 0.36 0.22 0.15 0.15

MortalityRespiratory 136 (142, 8) 155 (162, 9) 96 (100, 5) 85 (88, 5) 65 (68, 4)

Cardiovascular 17 (18, 1) 19 (20, 1) 12 (12, 1) 10 (11, 1) 8 (8, 0.5)

MorbidityRespiratory

1073 (1120,

64)

1225 (1278,

75)754 (787, 43) 667 (697, 38) 516 (539, 29)

Cardiovascular 866 (904, 52) 989 (1032, 60) 609 (636, 35) 539 (563, 31) 417 (435, 24)

DALY

Respiratory5210 (5437,

310)

5949 (6207,

363)

3663 (3825,

209)

3243 (3386,

185)

2510(2621,

143)


82)

1564 (1632,

95)963 (1005, 55) 852 (890, 48)

660 (689,

38)

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