climate change impacts on nz renewable ... - meridian energy · climate change impacts on nz...

Climate change impacts on NZ renewable

electricity generation to 2050

Dr Jen Purdie, Meridian Energy, May 2019 Presentation to MEUG

2

Disclaimer

This information in this presentation has been prepared by Meridian Energy Limited ("Meridian") to provide a general overview of Meridian

and the New Zealand electricity industry. It has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not purport to be complete or

comprehensive and does not constitute financial produce, investment, tax or other advice. Past performance information provided in this

presentation may not be a reliable indication of future performance.

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition, results of operations and business of

Meridian. All such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, significant uncertainties, assumptions,

contingencies, and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Meridian, which may cause the actual results or performance of

Meridian to be materially different from any future results or performance expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. There

can be no assurance that actual outcomes will not differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

This presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian securities and may

not be relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian securities. In particular, this presentation does not constitute an offer to sell,

or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities in the United States. Meridian's securities have not been, and will not be, registered under

the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (the "Securities Act") or the securities laws of any state or other jurisdiction of the United States and may not

be offered or sold in the United States without registration except in a transaction exempt from, or not subject to, the registration

requirements of the Securities Act and any other applicable U.S. state securities laws.

All amounts are disclosed in New Zealand dollars (NZ$) unless otherwise indicated. Certain information in this presentation has been derived

from a number of public sources including data released by the Government of New Zealand and the New Zealand Electricity Authority and

public filings of other companies. None of Meridian (nor its officers, employees, agents or advisors) gives any warranty or representation

(express or implied) of the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information, and it takes no responsibility for it. The information

has not been and will not be independently verified or audited.

1st May 2019 | Climate Change & Electricity Sector

MERIDIAN ENERGY LIMITED 3

Overview

1. Background – IPCC and Paris agreement

2. IPCC special report on Global Warming of 1.5°C – published Oct 2018

3. New Zealand and electricity industry implications

4. How is Meridian modelling climate change?



Background

• The United Nations body which assesses existing published science on climate change.

• Publishes summary reports of climate science.

• Provides the world with an objective, scientific view of climate change and its political and economic impacts.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

The Paris Agreement

• Its long-term goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to “well below 2°C” above pre-industrial levels; and to

• pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C.

• It requires all parties to define their own “nationally determined contributions” to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and to report on these efforts and continue to increase their contributions in the years ahead.


• Drawn up in 2015, it is the most significant climate agreement ever signed.

• 197 parties have signed the agreement – every country in the world (except the Holy See).

• 181 have ratified it, including New Zealand.


IPCC Special report on Global Warming of 1.5°C – Oct 2018

- considers how to keep the world below 1.5°C temperature increase (above pre-industrial levels)

Source: IPCC

Forecast emissions

• Current Paris agreement pledgeswould result in a global temperature increase of 3.2 °C by 2100.

• Current government policies around the world are projected to result in a 3.4°C increase by 2100.

Source: Marland et al 2003Source: climateactiontracker.org

• Carbon emissions globally have vastly increased over the past two centuries

Historical emissions Required emissions trajectory

1980 2020 2060 21000

20

30

40

50

60

10

Bill

ion t

onne

s C

O2

pe

r yr

(GtC

O2/y

r)


Source: www.ipcc.ch/sr15/


How can the planet stay below 1.5°C? – four pathways

Renewable electricity

Oil UseGHG

emissions

P1

P2

P3

P4

Gas useCoal UseEnergy

demandNuclear energy

Carbon capture and storage

NB: other more minor factors are not included in this table.

Pathways

Key Increase Decrease

Small

Medium

Large Source: www.ipcc.ch/sr15/


How can we keep the world below 1.5°C temperature increase?

Governments alone

can’t do it – industry

must be involved.

Rapid and widespread

“disruptive innovation”

is needed

Rapid escalation in the

scale and pace of

transition is needed,

particularly in the next

10-20 years.

Widespread Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

mechanisms will almost certainly be needed

(eg. tree planting and carbon storage)

Key take outs:

IPCC special report

on 1.5°C

Adaptation

globally is still

in it’s infancy

This is the first IPCC report to relate climate change

mitigation to the Sustainable Development Goals

and Poverty Eradication

Increasing the

proportion of

renewable electricity is

not enough on its own.

All pathways involve

reductions in:

• GHGs

• Coal use

• Oil use

1st May 2019 | Climate Change & Electricity SectorSource: www.ipcc.ch/sr15/


Source: climateactiontracker.org

Highly insufficientInsufficient2°C compatible

1.5°C compatible Role model

Critically insufficient

What are NZ’s emissions commitments, and how are we doing?

Strategy and Performance team

▪ NZ’s Paris Agreement pledge is to reduce GHG

emissions to 30% below 2005 levels by 2030

(black square on graph).

▪ NZ’s projected emissions (blue line) are not

meeting our Paris commitments.

▪ Currently emissions are ~15% above 1990 levels.

▪ Different colours in the chart illustrate NZ’s “fair

share” of global emissions (per capita). NZ’s

projected emissions (blue line) are staying in the

“highly insufficient” bracket.

China USA

Obama

policy

EU

Past

emissions

Zero emissions

Policy

pathway

Paris

pledge

Current

policy

projection


• The world is in agreement on the need for emissions reduction.

• Increasing pressure to decarbonise and reduce emissions is highly likely.

• Wide scale electrification of transport and industry is likely.

• Retirement of coal plant is almost certain.

Implications for the NZ electricity industry?

1.5°C or 2°C – what’s the difference?

Half a degree makes a big difference to the likely impacts.

Source: wri.org (using IPCC SR1.5 data)

NZ government has a number of initiatives on this issue

• Zero Carbon Act: expected July 2019. Will commit NZ to nett zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

• Interim Climate Change Committee: set up in 2018 to advise government – report due this week?

• 100% renewable energy by 2035 (in an average hydrological year): government target.

• 1 billion trees by 2028: a major government tree planting initiative is underway.

• Emissions trading scheme: key tool for reducing emissions and meeting our emission reduction targets.

• Powering past coal alliance: NZ signed up & committed to phasing out coal in electricity generation by 2030


Meridian Energy 2050 electricity modelling

Dr Jen Purdie, Meridian Energy, May 2019 Presentation to MEUG


-10%

-

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Kaw

era

u_A

8D

Jun

ctio

n_

Ro

ad

_OJu

nct

ion

_R

oa

d_O

Ma

tiri

Up

per

_Fra

ser

Tau

har

a_II

_Stg

1W

ave

rley

Kar

ew

au

_Po

ten

tiN

gaw

ha_

3_S

tg_

1R

an

gita

ta_D

iver

Loch

ind

orb

Tu

rite

a_I

Tau

har

a_II

_Stg

2W

aip

a_H

ydro

Re

dh

illT

uri

tea

_II

Tar

aru

a_R

epo

we

rR

oto

kaw

a_N

ort

hT

uri

tea

_III

Tau

har

a_II

_Stg

3W

aika

to_

Po

we

r_P

Wai

kato

_P

ow

er_

PM

au

nga

ha

ruru

_I

Te_

Ap

iti_

Re

po

we

Tik

ite

reW

aita

ha

Ro

tom

aM

t_M

un

roT

oka

anu

-Wa

ihi_

CM

ah

iner

an

gi_

IISo

uth

do

wn

_G

TSo

uth

do

wn

_G

TP

ou

toN

gaw

ha_

No

rth

Ce

ntr

al_

Win

d_

IIW

aira

kei_

Bin

ary

Wo

od

hill

Pu

keto

iN

gaw

ha_

3_S

tg_

2C

astl

e_

Hill

_I_

AM

au

nga

ha

ruru

_II

Wes

twin

d_R

epo

we

Hu

ntl

y_P4

2H

un

tly_

P42

Smal

l_W

elli

ngt

oC

ape_

Re

inga

Tah

eke

_St

g2

Cas

tle

_H

ill_

IiaT

iwai

_Pt_

IIW

aika

to_

Po

we

r_P

Wai

kato

_P

ow

er_

PH

un

tly_

P43

Hu

ntl

y_P4

3T

oka

anu

_St

g2M

ah

iner

an

gi_

IIISo

uth

do

wn

_G

T_2

Sou

thd

ow

n_

GT

_2T

auh

ara_

Sou

thR

ep

oro

aW

hit

eh

ill_

Re

po

wT

oka

anu

-Wa

ihi_

CSt

ratf

ord

_GT_

2St

ratf

ord

_GT_

2C

astl

e_

Hill

_I_

BM

t_C

ass

Te_

Uku

_R

ep

ow

er

Wai

kato

_P

ow

er_

PW

aika

to_

Po

we

r_P

Cas

tle

_H

ill_

IibN

elso

n_G

rid

_P

V_

Ce

ntr

al_

Win

d_

IA

uck

lan

dS_

Gri

d_

No

rth

lan

d_

Gri

d_

Mil

lcre

ek_

Re

po

wN

ort

hla

nd

_G

rid

_K

aiw

era

_Do

wn

s_I

Wai

kato

_G

rid

_P

VK

aiw

era

_Do

wn

s_I

Au

ckla

nd

N_

Gri

d_

Kaw

hia

_H

arb

ou

rH

aw

ke's

_B

ay_

Gri

Cas

tle

_H

ill_

I_B

Bo

p_

Gri

d_

PV

To

kaan

u_

Stg1

Smal

l_M

arl

bo

rou

Ma

rlb

oro

ugh

_Gri

Ha

wke

's_

Bay

_G

riK

aim

ai_

Win

dA

tih

au

Gu

mfi

eld

sM

arl

bo

rou

gh_G

riSm

all_

Can

terb

ur

Wel

lingt

on

_G

rid

Bo

p_

Gri

d_

PV

_2

201820192020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026202720282029 2030 2031 2032 203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047

ann

ual

pro

ift

mar

gin

[%]

New Generation Plant: Revenue above Annuity

Thermal Geothermal Solar Hydro Wind

€ 0

€ 5

€ 10

€ 15

€ 20

€ 25

€ 30

€ 35

€ 40

€ 45

€ 50

€ 55

€ 60

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

20

27

20

29

20

31

20

33

20

35

20

37

20

39

20

41

20

43

20

45

EU

ca

rbo

n p

ric

e [€

/t C

O2-e

]

NZ

ca

rbo

n p

ric

e [$

/t C

O2-e

@0

.60

EU

/NZ

D]

Carbon PricingHistory & Price Forecasts

MEL Spread

NZU History

MEL Avg

NZ ETS Cap

ECX history

ECX Futures @Dec18

Long-run (2030-2050)economic abatement range

Modelling the electricity system out to 2050 - LPCon

$-

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

19

80

19

84

19

88

19

92

19

96

20

00

20

04

20

08

20

12

20

16

20

20

20

24

20

28

20

32

20

36

20

40

20

44

20

48

oil p

ric

e [2

01

7 U

S$

/ba

rre

l]

World Oil Prices and Forecasts, 1980-2050

Low High 2016-AEO Ref

Forecast >>

US EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2016: (2016 dollars per barrel)

<< History

-2.0%

-1.0%

-

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

ann

ual

gro

wth

[%]

NZ GDP Forecast

Low Medium High NZ Stats GDP History

Cost of solar and wind

Electricity demand projections

Global fuel price forecasts

Forecast changes to wind and water

supply

Population and GDP forecasts

Future price of carbon

Power plant retirement schedule

Projected new plant builds

Model inputs



Modelling inputs – future climate - generally

Projected annual temperature changes by 2090

Low emissions High emissions

Low emissions High emissions

Projected annual rainfall changes by 2090

Source: MfE 2018

• The following pages examine how the impact of climate change on lake inflows and wind generation is incorporated in the model.

• In a general sense, New Zealand temperatures are expected to get about 0.5 to 1°C warmer by 2050.

0.5 - 1°C 2 - 4°C

-5% to +10% -15% to +20%


• Rainfall is expected to get wetter in the west and south of NZ, and drier in the north and east.


Niwa

regional

downscaling

model

Rainfall

Wind

Seasonal

rainfall

changes

New wind

modelling

dataset

• Methodology used to modify our model inflow & wind inputs

Seasonal

adjustments

to wind data

Seasonal

adjustments

to inflow

data, based

on snow

melt

changes

NZ research on

snow pack

changes

+

New hydro

inflow

modelling

dataset

Modelled

snow melt

Higher

rainfall

volatility+

Global

Circulation

model

outputs

- mid-range

emissions

- model

average

Modelled future hydro lake inflows and wind generation



• Annually, Waitaki catchment rainfall is forecast to get 0-10% wetter by mid-century, compared to 1995 levels (see map at right).

- projected rainfall changes from 1995-2055 (% change), low-mid emissions.


Source: ofcnz.niwa.co.nz


Projected changes to rainfall by 2050

Annual

Winter

Summer

• In addition to this, rainfall is projected to change seasonally as well.

• Waitaki rainfall is expected to get

➢ wetter in all seasons,

➢ particularly in winter (bottom right graph), where it is expected to be 10-15% wetter by mid-century.

➢ 0-10% wetter in summer under low-mid emissions (bottom left graph).


• An example of this is shown in the below right graph, for Hermitage (Mt Cook) rainfall for February 2018, both recorded (blue) and simulated 2050 rainfall (red).

Projected changes to rainfall volatility by 2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

26/0

1/2

018

28/0

1/2

018

30/0

1/2

018

1/02

/20

18

3/02

/20

18

5/02

/20

18

7/02

/20

18

9/02

/20

18

11/0

2/2

018

13/0

2/2

018

15/0

2/2

018

17/0

2/2

018

19/0

2/2

018

21/0

2/2

018

23/0

2/2

018

25/0

2/2

018

27/0

2/2

018

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m/d

ay)

Recorded rainfall Recorded rainfall + 8%


• An increase of 1°C of a parcel of air results in an 8% increase in moisture carrying ability of that air.

• Increased wind speeds (projected in coming decades) will enhance orographic uplift in the South Island in particular, enhancing both precipitation amounts and spillover over the Southern Alps and into the Waitaki, Clutha, and Manapouri catchments.

• For our modelling purposes, it is therefore estimated that each rain event will be 8% wetter by 2050.


• The Waitaki catchment receives half it’s summer inflows (or 22% of it’s annual inflows) from snowmelt (McKerchar

1998, Kerr 2013).

• The Clutha catchment 16% of it’s annual inflows from snow melt, and the Waiau 8%.

• Mid-century snowpack in NZ is expected to be ~20% smaller than today under a middle of the road emissions scenario (Hendrikx and Hreinsson (2011)).

Source: Hendrikx

and Hreinsson 2011

Percentage difference in mean maximum snow

accumulation in each year for 2040s and 2090s using

the 12-model average A1B scenario as input, when

compared to the current.

Projected changes to snow melt by 2050


• Melting glacier ice has been found to make up ~6% of Waitaki inflows. Glacial ice contribution to Waitaki inflows is likely to be reasonably consistent over the next 50 years, so has therefore not been adapted for in this study.


100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Flow

(cum

ecs)

1932-2017 inflows long term average - Waikato Inflows

Baseline inflows (historical) vs 2050 inflows (projected)

Baseline inflows Mid-range emissions

Annual total inflow change now to 2050: -0.1%

280

330

380

430

480

530

580

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Flo

w (

cum

ecs)

1932-2017 inflows long term average - Manapouri Inflows


Baseline inflows Mid-range emissions

Annual total inflow change now to 2050: +5.9%

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Flow

(cum

ecs)

1932-2017 inflows long term average - Clutha Inflows


Historical average inflows Projected 2050 inflows

Annual total inflow change now to 2050: +3%0

50

100

150

200

250

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Flo

w (

cum

ecs)

1932-2017 inflows long term average - Pukaki Inflows


Historical average inflows Projected 2050 inflows

Annual total inflow change now to 2050: 0% - no change

Lower inflows spr-sum-aut

Higher inflows winter

North Island hydro no change

Higher inflows winter

Higher inflows winter No change

spring/summer

Lower inflows spr-sum-aut

Modelled changes to inflows by 2050


50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

1-J

ul

1-A

ug

1-S

ep

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-J

an

1-F

eb

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-J

un

flo

w [

cum

ecs]

1932-2016 inflows long term average - Pukaki inflowsBase vs 2050 scenario

Base

Hi Emissions

Mid-rangeemissions

• Changes under a high emissions scenario (as compared to a middle of the road emissions scenario were examined.

• Due to the relatively short time frame (2050), the impact on inflows between the two scenarios were not significant.

Modelled changes to inflows under a high emissions scenario



-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1-J

ul

1-A

ug

1-S

ep

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-J

an

1-F

eb

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-J

un

Ad

just

me

nt

(%)

2050 wind adjustments - Southland 1

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1-J

ul

1-A

ug

1-S

ep

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-J

an

1-F

eb

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-J

un

Ad

justm

en

t (%

)

2050 wind adjustments - Canterbury

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

1-J

ul

1-A

ug

1-S

ep

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-J

an

1-F

eb

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-J

un

Ad

just

me

nt

(%)

2050 wind adjustments - Northland

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

1-J

ul

1-A

ug

1-S

ep

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-J

an

1-F

eb

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-J

un

Ad

just

me

nt

(%)

2050 wind adjustments - Otago

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1-J

ul

1-A

ug

1-S

ep

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-J

an

1-F

eb

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-J

un

Ad

just

me

nt

(%)

2050 wind adjustments - Wellington

Total annual change: -1.0%

Total annual change: +1.9%




Source: Niwa

▪ The South Island is expected to get windier in most regions.

▪ The North Island is expected to be:▪ slightly windier in the lower half▪ less windy in the upper half.

▪ The biggest change is expected to be in Otago, where a 4.2% increase in annual total wind is expected by 2050.

Northland – less windy overall

Wellington – slightly windier overall

Otago – biggest wind increase

Source: MfE 2018

South Island – 2 to 5% windier

Projected changes to wind speeds


0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.50

1-Ju

l

1-Au

g

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-De

c

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-Ap

r

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Capa

city

fact

or

1932-2017 wind capacity factor long term average -

Manawatu - Base vs 2050 projection

Base 2050 projection

1.3Annual % change by 2050:

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.42

0.44

0.46

1-Ju

l

1-Au

g

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-De

c

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-Ap

r

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Capa

city

fact

or


Auckland - Base vs 2050 projection


-2.8Annual % change by 2050:

0.35

0.37

0.39

0.41

0.43

0.45

0.47

0.49

0.51

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Capa

city

fact

or


Wellington - Base vs 2050 projection



0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Capa

city

fact

or


Otago - Base vs 2050 projection



Less windy all year Windier in winter-spring

Windier in winter-spring

Less windy in summer


Windier in winter-spring


Modelled changes to wind farm capacity factor



0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Capa

city

fact

or


Southland - Base vs 2050 projection



0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Capa

city

fact

or


Canterbury - Base vs 2050 projection



0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1-Ju

l

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Capa

city

fact

or


Waikato - Base vs 2050 projection



0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.501-

Jul

1-A

ug

1-Se

p

1-O

ct

1-N

ov

1-D

ec

1-Ja

n

1-Fe

b

1-M

ar

1-A

pr

1-M

ay

1-Ju

n

Capa

city

fact

or1932-2017 wind capacity factor long term average -

Northland - Base vs 2050 projection



Less windy win-spr

Little change sum-aut

Less windy win-spr

Little change sum-aut

Windier win-spr

Slightly less windy sum-aut

Windier win-spr Slightly

less windy sum-aut

Modelled changes to wind farm capacity factor (continued)


• Increased demand is expected as electrification of transport and industry occurs.

• Higher temperatures across the year are expected to increase electricity demand from both summer cooling and winter heating.

• We expect to see increased irrigation load as climate changes strengthen, especially on the East Coast of NZ.

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

No

rthl

and

No

rth

Au

ckla

nd

Sou

th A

uck

lan

d

Hun

tly

Ham

ilto

n

BO

P

East

coas

t

Wai

kato

Cen

tral

NI

Tara

nak

i

Man

awat

u

Wel

lingt

on

Wes

tCo

ast

Nel

son

/Mar

l

Can

terb

ury

Sou

th C

ante

rbu

ry

Cen

tral

Ota

go

Co

asta

l Ota

go

Sou

thla

nd

Tiw

ai P

t

NI SI NZ

ann

ual

en

erg

y [G

Wh

]

Changes to Heat-Pump Demand in 2050Driven by Climate Change of 1.5 - 2.0oC

Increased Summer Cooling

Reduced Winter Heating

+160MW peak

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200N

ort

hlan

d

No

rth

Au

ckla

nd

Sou

th A

uck

lan

d

Hun

tly

Ham

ilto

n

BO

P

East

coas

t

Wai

kato

Cen

tral

NI

Tara

nak

i

Man

awat

u

Wai

rara

pa

Wes

tCo

ast

Nel

son

/Mar

l

Can

terb

ury

Sou

th C

ante

rbu

ry

Cen

tral

Ota

go

Co

asta

l Ota

go

Sou

thla

nd

Tiw

ai P

t

NI SI NZ

ann

ual

en

erg

y [G

Wh

]Changes to Eastcoast Irrigation Demand in 2050

Driven by Climate Change of 1.5 - 2.0oC

Increased Summer Pumping Load

+170MW peak

Projected changes to electricity demand by 2050


Source: Meridian Energy


References

• Hendrikx, J. and Hreinsson, E.O. 2011: The potential impact of climate change on seasonal snow in New Zealand: Part II-industry vulnerability and future snowmaking potential. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 110(4).

• Kerr, T. 2013: The contribution of snow melt to the rivers of the South Island, New Zealand. Journal of Hydrology (NZ) 52 (2): 61-82.

• McKerchar, A., Pearson, C.P. and Fitzharris, B. B. 1998: Dependency of Summer Lake Inflows and Precipitation on Spring SOI, J. of Hydrology, 205, 66-80. DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00144-3.

• Ministry for the Environment 2018. Climate Change Projections for New Zealand: Atmosphere Projections Based on Simulations from the IPCC Fifth Assessment, 2nd Edition. Wellington: Ministry for the Environment.


climate change impacts on nz renewable ... - meridian energy · climate change impacts on nz...

Documents