environics - national observer swing riding poll report - oct 6-15
DESCRIPTION
Polls in Kenora, Essex and West London for October 2015 electionTRANSCRIPT
NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 | 1
Swing Riding Polls
NATIONAL OBSERVEROCTOBER 6, 2015
NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 | 22
METHODOLOGY
Environics was commissioned by the National Observer to conduct telephone surveys of over 600 eligible voters in each of three federal ridings across Canada between October 2 and 5, 2015. The sample sizes and margins of error for each individual riding are described on the following page.
The research was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology and the findings were weighted by age and gender to reflect the demographic makeup of the electorate. Listed phone numbers in each riding were randomly contacted to take part in the survey. Cell phone numbers are not directory listed or linked to street addresses, therefore they cannot be assigned to individual ridings for research purposes at this localized level.
The survey explored vote intention in the upcoming federal election. In each riding, the names of nominated local candidates were read.
NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 | 3
MethodologyRiding Field dates Sample size Margin of error*
Essex Oct. 2-4 655 3.8
London West Oct. 2-4 1,132 2.9
Kenora Oct. 2-5 647 3.8
*plus or minus, 19 times out of 20
NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 | 44
Q5 If the federal election were held today, who would you vote for here in the riding of Essex? Q6 Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting in your riding?
The NDP and Conservatives are locked in a dead heat with the Liberals a distant third in Essex
FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION - ESSEX
34%
37%
35%
35%
38%
48%
20%
22%
14%
3%
4%
2%
8%All voters
Decided voters
Election 2011results
NDP/Ramsey CPC/Watson Liberal/Festeryga Green/Alderson Undecided/dk/na
NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 | 55
Q5 If the federal election were held today, who would you vote for here in the riding of Essex? Q6 Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting in your riding?
The Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a dead heat with the NDP a distant third in London West
FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION: LONDON WEST
19%
20%
25%
34%
38%
45%
33%
37%
27%
5%
5%
3%
8%All voters
Decided voters
Election 2011results
NDP/Rowlinson CPC/Holder Liberal/Young Green/Lascaris Undecided/dk/na
NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 | 66
Q5 If the federal election were held today, who would you vote for here in the riding of Essex? Q6 Even though you are undecided, is there a candidate you might be leaning towards supporting in your riding?
Conservative Greg Rickford leads with 40% over a perfectly split opposition
FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION - KENORA
27%
29%
28%
36%
40%
47%
25%
28%
22%
3%
4%
3%
7%All voters
Decided voters
Election 2011results
NDP/Hampton CPC/Rickford Liberal/Nault Green/McKillop Undecided/dk/na
NATIONAL OBSERVER SWING SEAT POLL: OCTOBER 2015 | 7
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS CONTACT:
7
FOR MEDIA INQUIRIES ONLY REGARDING POLLING METHODOLOGY:
Jenny Uechi, National ObserverEmail: [email protected]: 604-346-5227
Sarah RobertonEmail: [email protected]: 613-230-5089 ext. 224