LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE ONE: AUGUST 2015 | 1

13 Swing Riding Polls – Wave One

LEADNOW

AUGUST 19, 2015

LEADNOW SWING SEAT POLL WAVE ONE: AUGUST 2015 | 2 2

METHODOLOGY

Environics was commissioned by LeadNow to conduct telephone surveys of approximately 500 eligible voters in each of 13 federal ridings across Canada between August 15 and 18, 2015. The research was conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology and the findings were weighted by age and gender to reflect the demographic makeup of the electorate. A total of 7,573 eligible voters were surveyed. Survey of this magnitude will yield aggregate results which can be considered accurate to within plus or minus 1.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The sample size and margin of error for each individual riding are described on the following page. The survey explored vote intention in the upcoming federal election. In each riding the names of nominated local candidates were read. Questions were also posed on whether respondents felt they were voting to re-elect or defeat the Conservative government and those supporting opposition party candidates were asked about their willingness to switch their vote to the candidate with the best chance of defeating the Conservatives.

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Methodology

Riding Field dates Sample size Margin of error

Fredericton Aug 15-16 799 3.5

Eglinton-Lawrence Aug 15-16 588 4.0

Etobicoke-Lakeshore Aug 15-16 544 4.2

Kitchener Centre Aug 15-16 625 3.9

London North Centre Aug 15-16 700 3.7

Willowdale Aug 15-17 508 4.3

Elmwood-Transcona Aug 15-16 517 4.3

Saskatoon-University Aug 15-16 691 3.7

Calgary Centre Aug 16-18 517 4.3

Edmonton Griesbach Aug 15-16 509 4.3

Port Moody-Coquitlam Aug 16-18 511 4.3

Vancouver Granville Aug 16-18 482 4.5

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

Aug 15-16 582 4.1

TOTAL Aug 15-18 7,573 1.1

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Across these 13 ridings CPC support has dropped 14 points since Election 2011

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

29

33

26

28

31

45

25

29

24

7

7

5

9 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP candidate CPC candidate Liberal candidate Green candidate Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Vote intention – 13 Swing ridings combined

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Six in ten are voting to defeat the Harper Conservatives and elect a different government

Q. In this election, would you say you are voting to re-elect Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, or are you voting to defeat the Harper Conservatives and elect a different government?

Voting to re-elect or defeat Harper Conservatives

Voting to defeat Harper

Voting to re-elect Harper

dk

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Six in ten opposition voters are willing to vote for candidate with best chance of beating Conservatives according to local polling

Q. If local polling showed that another candidate had the best chance of defeating the Conservative candidate in your riding, would you be willing to change your vote in order to defeat the Conservative, or would you stick with your current vote regardless?

Willing to change vote vs. sticking with first choice

62%

38%

62%

37%

63%

36%

54%

45%

Willing to change vote to defeat Conservative candidate Would not change vote based on local polling

Total NDP supporters Liberal supporters Green supporters

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Liberals lead by 5 in Fredericton; CPC support is down 18% from 2011

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

22

26

24

25

29

47

29

34

24

10

12

4

15 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Scott-Levesque CPC/Ashfield Liberal/Decourcey Green/Babineau Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Fredericton vote intention

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CPC/Liberals tied in Eglinton-Lawrence; NDP support has doubled since 2011

23

25

12

33

36

47

32

35

38

4

4

3

8 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Thomson CPC/Oliver Liberal/Mendicino Green Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Eglinton-Lawrence vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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Liberals lead CPC by 5 in Etobicoke-Lakeshore; NDP is close behind

24

28

20

27

31

40

30

36

35

4

5

4

14 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Trotter CPC/Trottier Liberal/Maloney Green/Salewsy Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Etobicoke Lakeshore vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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Kitchener Centre is a 3-way tossup; 11 point CPC to NDP swing since 2011

29

33

22

26

29

40

27

31

32

6

7

5

13 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Cadell CPC/Woodworth Liberal/Saini Green/Wendler Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Kitchener Centre vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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London North Centre is a Liberal/CPC tossup; NDP is a strong third

24

27

24

29

32

37

30

34

34

5

6

4

11 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Gutierrez-Sanin CPC/Truppe Liberal/Gragiskatos Green/Dyck Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 London North Centre vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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Liberals lead CPC by 5 in Willowdale; NDP is up 7 points from 2011

23

26

19

28

32

41

33

37

39

4

5

1

12 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Tabasinejad CPC/Leung Liberal/Ehsassi Green Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Willowdale vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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NDP leads CPC by 9 in Elmwood-Transcona; Liberals up 20 from 2011

34

39

45

26

30

47

21

25

5

5

6

3

14 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Blaikie CPC/Toet Liberal/Richardson-Lipon Green Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Elmwood-Transcona vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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NDP leads CPC by 7 in Saskatoon University Liberals are up 12 from 2011

37

41

38

31

34

49

20

22

10

4

4

3

9 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Card CPC/Trost Liberal/Block Green Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Saskatoon-University vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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CPC leads Liberals by 12 points in Calgary Centre

15

17

4

15

40

44

37

55

29

32

33

19

7

7

26

10

9 All voters

Decided voters

By-election 2012 results

Election 2011 Results

NDP/Ratti CPC/Crockatt Liberal/Hehr Green/Boonlert Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Calgary Centre vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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NDP leads CPC by 16 in Edmonton Griesbach

44

48

37

29

32

53

13

15

7

5

5

3

8 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Irwin CPC/Diotte Liberal/Gold Green/Workman Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Edmonton Griesbach vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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NDP leads by a 2 to 1 margin in Port Moody-Coquitlam

49

54

40

24

27

46

13

14

9

5

5

4

9 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Donnelly CPC/Laidler Liberal/Adcock Green/Madsen Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Port Moody-Coquitlam vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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NDP leads CPC by 6 in Vancouver Granville; Liberal support has declined since 2011

32

36

24

27

30

35

21

24

30

9

10

9

9 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Oreck CPC/Broshko Liberal/Wilson-Raybould Green/Barkusky Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 Vancouver Granville vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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Liberals narrowly lead NDP in West Vancouver-…; CPC support is down 23 points

26

27

21

22

23

46

29

30

24

18

19

8

6 All voters

Decided voters

Election 2011 results

NDP/Koopman CPC/Weston Liberal/Goldsmith-Jones Green/Melamed Undecided/dk/na

August 2015 West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country vote intention

Q. If the federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you vote for here in the riding of [riding name] …? Q. Even though you are undecided, is there a party’s candidate that you are leaning towards…?

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FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR QUESTIONS CONTACT:

20

Brenda Sharpe SENIOR RESEARCH ASSOCIATE, PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Tel: 613-230-5089 x 228 Email: brenda.sharpe@environics.ca