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Page 1: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables
Page 2: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects

Geoff O’Donnell

Manager-Energy

Tubular Products

Annual Convention

San Diego, CAFebruary 6 – 8, 2020

Page 3: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

This presentation has been prepared by Wheatland Tube for delivery in Wheatland Tube’s presentation at the

NASPD Annual Conference on Feb 6-8, 2020. It has not been prepared for the benefit of any particular attendee

and may not be relied upon by any attendee or other third party. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this

presentation is relied upon by any person, Wheatland Tube does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for loss

and damage suffered as a result.

The information contained in these slides may be retained by attendees. However, these slides and the contents

of this presentation may not be disclosed to any other person or published by any means without Wheatland

Tube’s prior written permission.

Disclaimer

3

Page 4: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Agenda

4

Energy Tubulars: Supply update and Demand prospects

❑ Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America

❑ An examination of current Tubular demand load

❑ A look at Renewables and the impact on Energy Tubulars

❑ How geopolitical events are shaping the global oil and gas industry

❑ The historical role of Line Pipe in Warfare

Page 5: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

No. America Energy Pipe Mill Capacity/Utilization

5

LP DSAW MILLS

1 Berg Panama CityFL

2 Berg Mobile AL

3 Dura Bond Steelton PA

4 Evraz Pittsburg CA

5 Evraz Camrose AB

6 Evraz Portland OR

7 Evraz Regina SK

8 Jindal TubularBay St. LouisMS

9 JSW Baytown TX

10 Stupp Baton RougeLA

11 Welspun Little Rock AR

CANADA OCTG ERW MILLS

1 Evraz Calgary AB

2 Evraz Red Deer AB

3 Tenaris Calgary AB

4 Welded Tube of CanadaLackawannaNY

5 Welded Tube of CanadaConcord ON

ERW LINE PIPE: > 16"

1 American Birmingham AL

2 California SteelFontana CA

3 California SteelFontana CA

4 Durabond/USSMcKeesport PA

5 Stupp Baton RougeLA

6 Welspun Little Rock AR

OCTG ERW MILLS

1 Axis Pipe Bryan TX

2 Bellville TubeBellville TX

3 Boomerang Liberty TX

4 Borusan MannesmannBaytown TX

5 Centric Bossier City LA

6 Seah Steel USAHouston TX

7 Tejas TubularStephenville TX

8 Tenaris Hickman AR

9 Tenaris-TMKComanche IA

10 Tenaris-TMKBlytheville AR

11 USS Lone Star TX

12 USS Lone Star #1 TX

13 Wheatland TubeNiles OH

ERW LINE PIPE: 0" - 16"

1 Evraz Camrose AB

2 Leavitt Tube Chicago IL

3 Paragon Sapulpa OK

4 Tenaris-TMKWilder KY

5 Texas Tubular PrLone Star TX

6 Tex-Tube Atchison KS

7 Tex-Tube Houston TX

8 Wheatland TubeWarren #1 OH

SEAMLESS MILLS

1 USS Lorain #3 OH

2 USS Fairfield AL

3 Tenaris Vera Cruz MX

4 Tenaris Sault Ste MarieON

5 Tenaris Bay City TX

6 Vallourec Youngstown OH

7 Vallourec Youngstown OH

8 Tenaris-TMKAmbridge PA

9 Benteler Caddo LA

10 Evraz Pueblo CO

15,970,00015,970,000ERW OCTG USA 3,545,000

ERW OCTG CAN 1,480,000

15,970,000

ERW LINE PIPE: 0" - 16" 1,660,000

ERW LINE PIPE: > 16" 2,735,000

SEAMLESS MILLS 4,130,000

LP DSAW MILLS 2,420,000

TOTAL CAPACITY

15,970,000

UTILIZATION %

6,538,900 41%

1,168,900 33%

444,000 30%

518,000 31%

877,500 32%

2,021,000 49%

1,509,500 62%

15,970,000

Diff Tons fr Q4 2019

(1,944,850) 53%

(516,600) 48%

(176,000) 42%

(97,000) 37%

(616,250) 55%

(342,000) 57%

(197,000) 71%

Page 6: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

All Tubulars: Performance 2017- 2018 - 2019

6

2%

9%

1%

-4%

6%

6%

-9%

-1%

0% -1%

-19%

-19%

11 Yr Avg '08 -'18

OCTG 5,558,294

LINE 3,923,293

MECHANICAL 2,864,434

STRUCTURAL 2,739,493

STANDARD 1,896,483

PRES/SS 361,085

17,343,083

% Diff Ton Diff

2% 128,750

13% 508,104

17% 492,604

17% 456,835

-14% -259,908

-22% -79,627

7% 1,246,759

2018

6,093,507

4,371,593

3,286,767

3,213,732

1,989,976

343,546

19,299,121

PRODUCT

OCTG

LINE

MECHANICAL

STRUCTURAL

STANDARD

PRES/SS

Comparing

2019 vs 2018

% Diff Ton Diff

-9% -531,265

-1% -50,934

0% 1,786

-1% -24,713

-19% -374,558

-19% -65,694

-5% -1,045,378

2019

5,562,242

4,320,659

3,288,553

3,189,019

1,615,418

277,852

18,253,743

Page 7: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

OCTG – Line Pipe Performance

7

5,555,652

4,112,709

9,668,361

57%

43%

100%

OCTG Avg

LP Avg

Total Avg

-9%

-1%

-5%

2017 2018 2019 12 Yr Avg

9,961,600 10,465,100 9,865,853 TOTAL 9,540,013

5,649,515 5,027,321 4,181,384 IMPORT 4,970,171

4,312,085 5,437,779 5,684,469 DOMESTIC 4,569,842

43% 52% 58% % Domestic 48%

9% 6% 10%

Domestic Market Share increases

after Section 232 is implementedData by Import vs Domestic

Page 8: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

API Licensed Mills of the World: 5L, 5CT

8

# Country % of TTL Total Welded % Welded Smlss % Smlss 5L # 5CT #

1 China 33% 148 93 63% 55 37% 141 75

2 United States 9% 42 32 76% 10 24% 41 28

3 India 6% 29 27 93% 2 7% 29 8

4 South Korea 6% 27 26 96% 1 4% 27 11

5 Turkey 4% 16 16 100% 0 0% 16 4

6 Mexico 3% 15 13 87% 2 13% 14 5

7 Germany 3% 15 10 67% 5 33% 15 8

8 Japan 3% 13 9 69% 4 31% 13 7

9 Saudi Arabia 2% 11 9 82% 2 18% 11 4

10 Italy 2% 10 8 80% 2 20% 10 5

11 Russia 2% 10 4 40% 6 60% 10 8

12 Indonesia 2% 9 8 89% 1 11% 9 3

13 Taiwan 2% 7 7 100% 0 0% 7 6

14 UAE 2% 7 7 100% 0 0% 7 2

15 Canada 2% 7 6 86% 1 14% 6 6

16 Pakistan 2% 7 6 86% 1 14% 7 1

17 Brazil 2% 7 5 71% 2 29% 7 5

18 Argentina 1% 6 5 83% 1 17% 6 6

19 Macedonia 1% 4 4 100% 0 0% 4 0

20 Vietnam 1% 4 4 100% 0 0% 4 2

21 Algeria 1% 4 3 75% 1 25% 4 1

22 Spain 1% 4 2 50% 2 50% 4 2

23 Thailand 1% 4 2 50% 2 50% 4 2

24 Romania 1% 4 1 25% 3 75% 4 3

25 Egypt 1% 3 3 100% 0 0% 3 0

# Country % of TTL Total Welded % Welded Smlss % Smlss 5L # 5CT #

26 Malaysia 1% 3 3 100% 0 0% 3 1

27 South Africa 1% 3 2 67% 1 33% 3 2

28 Czech 1% 3 1 33% 2 67% 3 2

29 Ukraine 1% 3 1 33% 2 67% 3 3

30 Chile 0% 2 2 100% 0 0% 2 0

31 England 0% 2 2 100% 0 0% 2 1

32 Nigeria 0% 2 2 100% 0 0% 2 0

33 Kazakhstan 0% 2 1 50% 1 50% 2 1

34 Slovak 0% 2 1 50% 1 50% 2 1

35 France 0% 2 0 0% 2 100% 1 2

36 Poland 0% 2 0 0% 2 100% 2 2

37 Azerbaijan 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 0

38 Bangladesh 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 0

39 Brunei 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 1

40 Colombia 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 1

41 Greece 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 1

42 Israel 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 0

43 Kuwait 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 0

44 Mozambique 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 1

45 Oman 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 1

46 Philippines 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 1

47 Venezuela 0% 1 1 100% 0 0% 1 1

48 Austria 0% 1 0 0% 1 100% 1 1

49 Belarus 0% 1 0 0% 1 100% 1 1

50 Georgia 0% 1 0 0% 1 100% 1 1

# Country % of TTL Total Welded % Welded Smlss % Smlss 5L # 5CT #

50 Grand Total 100% 453 336 74% 117 26% 442 227

Page 9: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

API Licensed Mills of the World: 5L, 5CT

9

Eastern HemisphereWestern Hemisphere WORLD TOTAL 453 Licenses

TOTAL %

453 100%

Welded 336 74%

Seamless 117 26%

% WORLD

TYPETOTAL %

372 82%

Welded 271 73%

Seamless 101 27%

% Within Hemisphere

EASTERNTOTAL %

81 18%

Welded 65 80%

Seamless 16 20%

% Within Hemisphere

WESTERN

43%

4%

14%

11%

10%

5%

4%

8%

1%

Welded

Seamless

14 3

Country # Mills Welded Smlss

Brazil 7 5 2

Argentina 6 5 1

Chile 2 2 0

Colombia 1 1 0

Venezuela 1 1 0

So America 17

Data Source: API.org

TYPE QNTY

LINE PIPE Only 226

OCTG Only 11

BOTH 108

TOTAL # MILLS 345

TOTAL Licenses 453

Page 10: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Zekelman Industries

10

API 5L, ½” – 6”

API 5CT, Green Tube

thru 13-3/8”

ASTM A53- ¼” – 18”

ASTM A795- 1” – 8”

UL 6, 797- ½ ” – 6”

ASTM A513 Types 5- 6,

½” – 9”

ASTM A500, A1085, A252

1-1/4” – 20”

End Use Applications

➢ Infrastructure/Civil Projects

➢ Stadiums/Arenas

➢ Solar Energy

➢ Non-Residential Construction

➢ Transportation/DOT

➢ Agriculture & Construction Equip

➢ Material Handling Equipment

➢ Water Treatment facilities

➢ Oil & Gas

Cast-steel connectors for

design & assembly of

modular buildings.

Fittings

UL 6, 797- ½ ” – 6”

Largest tubular

manufacturer in North

America

17 North American

manufacturing facilities

Revenue: $2+ Billion

Shipments 2+million tons

Capacity: 2.8 million tons

Employees: approx. 2,500

UL 6, 797- ½ ” – 6”

Iconic Applications

•Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY

•The Pentagon — Washington, D.C.

•John Hancock Center — Chicago, IL

•Independence Hall — Philadelphia, PA

•Empire State Building — NY, NY

•Rogers Centre — Toronto, ON

•And many others

Page 11: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Zekelman Industries: History

11

Tong &

Bell Mill

installed

Acquired

International

Conduit Co

(ICC)

Acquired

Omega Tube

(Sumitomo) in

Little Rock, AR

Acquired

Sawhill

Tubular Div of

AK Steel Corp

CW Mill

installed

Company founded

by John Maneely

as a steel pipe

distributor

Entered

fittings

business

Acquired

Laclede

Steel

Sold cold

draw division

acquired fr

Sawhill

WHEATLANDCarlyle

Group

acquires

97% of JMC

Acquired

Sharon Tube,

(manu CW

pipe & DOM

tubing

Acquired

Lakeside

Steel.

Formed

Energex

Tube

2016

$35 MM

CAPEX at

Wheatland

CW Mill

2017

Acquires

Western

Tube,

Energex

Tube

closes

202020122011 20132006 2007

1984 1990 1992 1997 1999 2005

Atlas Tube formed

by Harry Zekelman

Acquired

Transamerican Steel

Co. of Westport, CT,

increasing size range

to up to 6”x6”

First high speed

quick change mill

installed

Opened

Plymouth, MI

facility

Installed 16” quick

change mill in

Harrow, ON facility

Acquired

Maverick Tube

Corporation’s

HSS product line

Acquired

Copperweld

HSS business Carlyle

Group

acquires

Atlas Tube,

Zekelman

family

acquires

majority stake

in JMC from

Carlyle Group

Aquires

Allied

Tube

facilities

June 2016

name change

from JMC to

Zekelman

Industries

ATLAS

Launches

Z Modular

modular

construction

solutions.

Acquires

American

Tube

Under Construction

28” ERW Mill

Largest Straight

Seam EW Mill in the

World

200320022001199219741931 1961 19691877

142 Year

History

Page 12: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Drilling Efficiency Continues

12

Oil Count

Gas Count

Total Wells

(Rig Count)

# Horizontal

Wells Double

Rig Count

drops more

than 1,000

Drilling

efficiencies

continue

PROCESS CHANGES: more Frac Proppant used, Longer laterals & more Perf stages

LOWER UNIT COSTS &

PRODUCTION COSTS.

IMPROVED EFFICIENCY GAINS: higher initial production, more effective operations.

HIGHGRADING: operators focusing in the best acreages.

Shale

Production

begins

6.5% 6.8%15.8% 34.5%

57.8%

73.8%

86.4%

88.1%

% Horizontal

Wells

Page 13: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Drilled but Uncompleted Wells (DUCs)

WTI $/bbl

Rig Count

DUCs

Current market price of Crude Oil?

Associated completion difficulties?

Are Crude Oil inventories too high?

Lack of Midstream pipeline infra-structure?

Will some DUCs never be completed?

Is the EIA data accurate/archaic?

Basin DUCs # % DUCs DUCs Tons

Anadarko 632 8% 21,041

Appalachia 427 6% 14,208

Bakken 813 11% 27,053

Eagle Ford 1,427 19% 47,483

Haynesville 214 3% 7,121

Niobrara 448 6% 14,907

Permian 3,612 48% 120,189

7,573 100% 252,003

Page 14: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Midstream Infrastructure Build-out Continues

14

Project Developer(s) Project Type Status Start Yr Miles Pipe D Project Developer(s) Project Type Status Start Yr Miles Pipe D

Enbridge Conversion, ReversalAnnounced 2023

Enterprise Products PartnersExpansion Announced 2022 1,205 20, 16, 14

Phillips 66 New Announced 2021

OneOK Expansion Announced 2021 120 24

Targa Resources Expansion Announced 2021 110 16

ExxonMobil, Lotus Midstream, Delek US, Plains All American (W2W Pipeline JV)New Announced 2021 650 36

Tallgrass Energy New Announced 2021 700 30

Holly Energy, Plains All American (Cushing Connect Pipeline & Terminal LLC JV)New Announced 2021 50

Bridger Pipeline; Phillips 66New Announced 2021

Marathon Logistics; WhiteWater MidstreamNew Announced 2021 525 24

Bridger Pipeline (True Companies)New Announced 2021 137 16

Plains All American Expansion Announced 2021 555

Enterprise Products PartnersNew Announced 2021

TransMontaigne Conversion Announced 2020 16 8, 6

Kinder Morgan Expansion Announced 2020

Plains All American; ValeroExpansion Announced 2020 440 20

Tallgrass Energy Expansion Announced 2020 760

Williams New Announced 2020 188 16

Permico Energia New Announced 2020 510 24

Jupiter New Announced 2020 650 36

Energy Transfer Partners Expansion Announced 2020 352 24

Magellan; Navigator Energy ServicesNew Announced 2020 500 20

Harvest Midstream; PBF Logistics; Phillips 66New Announced 2020

Marathon Pipeline (MPLX); Crimson MidstreamOther Announced 2020 60 30, 20, 16

Bridger Pipeline (True Companies)New Announced 2020 190 24

Enterprise Products PartnersNew Announced 2020

Saddlehorn Expansion Announced 2020 538

Plains All American; Delek LogisticsExpansion Announced 2020 16

NuStar New Announced 2019 47 10

TC Energy New Announced 1,180 36

Energy Transfer Partners, MarEn Bakken Company (owned by Enbridge and Marathon Pipeline), Phillips 66 (Bakken Pipeline JV)Expansion Announced 1,172 30

Marathon Pipeline (MPLX)Reversal Construction 2021 632 40

Shell Midstream PartnersNew Construction 2020 98 16, 12, 10

EPIC Pipeline New Construction 2020 730 30

Energy Transfer Partners New Construction 2020 350 16

OneOK New Construction 2020 530 30, 24

OneOK New Construction 2020 600 20

EPIC Pipeline New Construction 2020 131 12

OneOK Expansion Construction 2020 240 16

DCP Midstream; Enbridge; Phillips 66Expansion Construction 2020 400 20

Enbridge Expansion Construction 2020 1,031 36

Enbridge Expansion Construction 2020 454 42

EPIC Pipeline Conversion Construction 2020 430 24

Harvest Midstream New Construction 2020 24 24

Energy Transfer Partners New Construction 2020 350 20

Enterprise Products Partners; Lavaca Pipe Line CompanyExpansion Construction 2020 91 12.75

Energy Transfer Partners New Construction 2019 15 12

Anandarko, DCP Midstream, Enterprise Products Partners (Front Range Pipeline JV)Expansion Construction 2019 435 16

Wolf Midstream New Construction 2019 40 16

Anadarko; ArcLight; DCP Midstream; Enterprise Products PartnersExpansion Construction 2019 580 20

OneOK Conversion Construction 2019 45 12

OneOK New Construction 2019 300 20

Andeavor; Phillips 66 New Construction 2019 850

Wolf Midstream New Construction 2019 55 16

Anadarko, Magellan, Plains All American (Saddlehorn Pipeline Company); ARB MidstreamNew Construction 2019 38

Enterprise Products PartnersExpansion Construction 2019 624 24

DCP Midstream; SemGroupConversion Construction 2019 564 12

Page 15: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Oil Price: Deviations, Dynamics

15

Seven Sisters control Price

1960

OPEC

FOUNDED

1971

ADDS 6

USA loses

price

control

1973

Yom

Kippur

War

Arab Oil

Embargo

1979

Iranian Revolution

1980- 88

Iran-Iraq

War

1980- 82

Iran-Iraq

loses 3.5

mmb/d

OPEC

increases

production

Iran-Iraq

resume

production

All Time Highs

<--- Price

<--- Production

<--- Rig Count

1991

1st Gulf

War

911

2003

2nd Gulf

War

2002

PDVSA

Strike

Shale Production

takes off (2007)

‘08 Global

Recession

2011

Muslim

Uprisings

OBL

Killed

2013 ISIS

in Syria

2012 Iran

threatens

Hormuz

2016 Global

Over-Supply

2017 OPEC

Cuts

Production

2018 -19 USA

becomes #1

Global producer

Tensions

w/ Iran

escalate

Page 16: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Global Primary Energy Demand Trends

16

Industrialization of

Western

economies.

1850 - 1900

Energy dominated

by Renewable

(Biomass)

7.386.142.581.601.20 8.6 9.8Population Billions

World population projected

to reach 9.8 billion in 2050,

and 11.2 billion in 2100

1900 - 1950

Expansion of

global & local

transport.

Energy mix

changes to Coal

& Oil

1950 - 1990

Energy mix: Oil

and Natural Gas

grow. Coal

declines Nuclear

begins.

Unprecedented

rise in Western

living

Energy mix: Oil

and Natural Gas

Rapid

Industrialization

in China

1990 - 2015

Resurgence by

Renewables:

Biomass, Solar,

Wind

2015 - 2050Demand plateaus around 2030 after a century of rapid growth,

Driven by the penetration of renewable sources in the energy mix.

Page 17: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Steelmakers respond with plans to reduce Carbon Emissions

17

Hydrogen was fed into one of 28 tuyeres, or nozzles, that

otherwise supply coal into the blast furnace.

Thyssenkrupp has completed a successful, first-of-its-kind

demonstration of running a furnace completely on hydrogen.

They plan to inject all 28 tuyeres within the furnace and run

at least three furnaces completely on hydrogen by 2023.

Nucor - Sedalia, MO., claims its

micro mill in will be the first U.S.

steel plant to run on wind energy

EVRAZ - Pueblo, CO., will be

powered by an on-site, 240MW

solar power plant

SSAB Americas - Montpelier, IA

claims it will be the first supplier of

“fossil-free steel” in North America,

operating its minimill solely with

renewable energy by 2026.

The Global steel industry emits approx 5 percent of total CO2 emissions.

Page 18: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Global CO2, Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2018

18

11.3

5.3

2.6

1.7

1.2

USA

% Rank Country mm/kt

32% 1 China 11.3

15% 2 United States 5.3

7% 3 India 2.6

5% 4 Russia 1.7

3% 5 Japan 1.2

2% 6 Germany 0.8

2% 7 Iran 0.7

2% 8 South Korea 0.7

2% 9 Saudi Arabia 0.6

2% 10 Canada 0.6

2% 11 Indonesia 0.6

1% 12 Brazil 0.5

1% 13 Mexico 0.5

1% 14 South Africa 0.5

1% 15 Turkey 0.4

80%

20% 165 Others 6.7

100% 34.7 GLOBAL EMISSIONS

✓ China is the world’s largest CO2 emitter –more than 30% of emissions.

✓ The USA currently contributes 15% of emissions.

Historical or cumulative emissions (since 1970) total 25%.

✓ Top 5 Countries are 63% of emissions.

✓ Top 15 Countries are 80% of emissions.

Vol= million kilotons (kt)

Top 15 Emitters

4.5

Data Source: Global GHG and CO2 Emissions

Page 19: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Changing USA Energy Consumption: 1776 to Present

19

100%

89%

7%

19%

64%

4% 2% 2% 2%

11%

35%

18%

64%

13%

34%

23%

72%

37%

46%39%

40%

1%

3%

20%

3% 3% 4% 4% 2%

3%3% 8%

8%

3% 6%

19% 27%

24%31%

1% 6%

RENEWABLES:

FOSSIL FUELS:

WOOD is major source from 1776

until the mid-1800s

COAL use begins in mid 1800s and

becomes the major energy source

from 1900 thru 1950.

PETROLEUM is discovered in

1859 and becomes the predominant

energy source to the present day.

HYDROPOWER begins in 1900

and along with solid biomass

become the most used renewable

energy resources until the 1990s

NUCLEARbegins in the late 1970s.

WIND, SOLAR & BIOMASS begins Renewables begin to

increase in the 1990s and are

account for 11% of total Energy

consumption in 2018.

NATURAL GAS also discovered in

1859 & remains a large factor..

81%

Page 20: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Renewable Energy Components: USA

20

45% - Biomass

2% - Geothermal6% - Solar

21% - Wind

4% - Biomass Waste

21% - Biofuels

19% - Wood

25% - Hydroelectric

Heat from hot interior of earth to

generate electricity thru turbines

Uses radiation from the sun to

produce heat and electricity

Turbines turn an electric

generator which produces

electricity

Solid Waste is burned in waste to

energy plants to generate

electricity

Most ethanol fuel used in the

USA is produced from corn.

Biodiesel is made from grain oils

& animal fats.

Wood chips from forestry

operations

Electricity produced from flowing

water

Page 21: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

USA: Total Energy Distribution by Source & Sector

21

Petroleum36.9 (36%)

Natural Gas31.0 (31%)

Nuclear

8.4 (8%)

Coal

13.2 (13%)

Renewable

11.5 (11%)

Industrial26.3 (35%)

Residential

11.9 (16%)

Commercial

9.4 (12%)

Transportation28.3 (37%)

Total = 75.9

End-use Sector

Electricity retail sales

13.0

Electrical system

energy losses

25.3

% of Sources % of Sector

7092

243

2

1

34

8

9

3

34

17

12

35

3

40

43

38

94

91

12

23

72

56

5

10

7

3

100 50

42

12

<1

Source

Total = 101.3

Page 22: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Global Energy Projection by Source: 2040

22 Data Source: Historical from Grubler (1940, 1965) IEA (1990 and 2015) and US EIA

More Conservative

Pro-Fossil

Less Conservative

Pro Renewable

16%29%

32% 26%

20%26%

17%

20%

9%

7% -6%

-6%

-3%

+2%

+13%

Page 23: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Renewable Energy: Summary/Conclusions

23

The most critical solution required - is CCUS (CO2 capture, utilization, and sequestration)

The oil and gas industry will become a critical partner for tackling Climate Change and CCUS.

API backs bipartisan legislation that supports CCUS research and deployment. The USE IT Act – introduced in the U.S.

Senate by Republican John Barrasso of Wyoming and Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and The LEADING

Act, introduced by Texas Republican John Cornyn and Delaware Democrat Chris Coons –

➢ Technically capable workforces with an abundance of expertise

➢ Infrastructure and capabilities for responsibly handling large volumes of CO2.

➢ Drilling expertise needed to reach geothermal resources.

➢ Supply chains that span the globe

➢ Refineries and other petrochemical facilities (material conversions, etc..)

➢ Familiar w/separating carbon dioxide from methane, (biogas)

The Oil & Gas Industry is well positioned to lead

Page 24: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Global Concerns

24

Page 25: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

War on Terror

25

Page 26: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

War on Terror

26

Page 27: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

27

OPEC Section: Reserves

IRAN

13.1%

VENEZUELA

25.5%

SAUDI

ARABIA

22.4%

IRAQ

12.2%

Page 28: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Iran & the Persian Gulf

28

BOKO

HARAM

ISIL

ISIL

AQIM

AQIM

ISIL

HEZBOLLAH

HAMAS

AQSP

PKK

ISIL

ISIL

HOUTHIS

AQAP

ISIL

AL-SHABAAB

ISIL

TALIBAN

AQIS

5th Fleet, Bahrain

Equatorial

Guinea Gabon

SHIA

Militias

SUNNI

Militias

Bab el-Mandeb

IRAN

1998 US embassy bombings- Kenya and Tanzania

2000 USS Cole bombing March

2003 Riyadh compound bombings

1985 hijacking of TWA flight 847

1989 assassination attempt on Salman Rushdie,

1996 Khobar Towers bombing, killing 19 US

servicemen.

2014 al Qaeda in Syria, Sunni Proxies

1979 Capture of American Embassy hostages.

2019 Hostile activities in Hormuz (tanker attacks)

Iran–North Korea Alliance

Destabilization of Egypt.

Threats to Saudi Arabia and Other

Members of the Gulf Region

Hezbollah Network in Venezuela

Iran–Russia -→ Syria Disruption

2015 JCPOA signed

2019 POTUS puts IRGC on Terror List

2019 Sept, Houthis attack Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq

refinery along with the Khurais oil field

2019 June, (IRGC) shot down a USA drone

2019- 27 Dec, Iraqi airbase attacked, killing 1

American and injuring 4.

29 Dec 2019, retaliatory U.S. airstrikes on

Hezbollah, killing 25, wounding 55.

31 Dec 2019, US Embassy – Bagdad attacked by

pro-Iranian Sunnis.

2 Jan 2020, US Drone strike kills Quds commander

Major General Qasem Soleimani.

NDA

2015 -→ $150 billion payment to Iran

2015 -→ $1.7 billion in Cash to Iran

2018 JCPOA withdrawal

BIG WILD CARD:

SAUDI ARABIA

MBS: Mohammad bin

Salman

Strait of Hormuz

1985 USA downs Iran Air Flight #655

Suleimani’s successor, Esmail Qaani,

reportedly ran the Africa Quds Force

Angola Congo

Page 29: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Active Nuclear Warheads: World

29

2019 NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Country Total Active Retired Pop 2019

N. Korea 30 30 0 25,666

Israel 90 90 0 8,519

India 140 140 0 1,366,418

Pakistan 160 160 0 216,565

UK 200 200 0 67,530

China 290 290 0 1,433,784

France 300 300 0 65,130

USA 6185 3800 2385 329,065

Russia 6490 4490 2000 145,872

TTLS 13885 9500 4385

Data Source: World Population Review

IRAN

Page 30: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

NATO

30

Min 2% of GPD on Defense

20% of Defense spending on

Equipment

Latvia *

Lithuania *

Romania *

United Kingdom

United States

5 of 29 nations

(17%) comply

Page 31: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

The Historical role of Line Pipe in Warfare

31

The Normandy Invasion (D-Day):

Offshore Drilling: Genesis

Page 32: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

32

Avg Depth: Isle

of Wight to

Cherbourg

120 m (390 ft)

Depth-

Dover to

Calais:

about 45

m (148 ft).

PLUTO: Pipe Lines Under The Ocean

June 1940

August 1942

Page 33: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

33

90’ Wide

50’

Dia

mete

r

Pipe Lines Under The OceanPLUTO:

Welders assembled 20-foot

sections of steel pipe into

4,000-foot lengths

Deployment systems

weighed 1,600 tons each,

and were pulled by three

tugboats

Conundrum was short for

Cone-ended drum

The first type was the flexible

HAIS pipe with a 3 inch (75

mm) diameter lead core

HAIS (from Hartley-Anglo-

Iranian-Siemens)

H. A. Hammick and B. J. Ellis.

It was discovered in testing

that the HAMEL pipe was best

used with final sections of

HAIS pipe at each end

1st of 4 lines to France, BAMBI, from the Isle of Wight to Cherbourg.

17 other lines, DUMBO, from Dungeness to the Pas-de-Calais.

Page 34: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

34

Avg Depth: Isle

of Wight to

Cherbourg

120 m (390 ft)

Depth-

Dover to

Calais:

about 45

m (148 ft).

PLUTO: Pipe Lines Under The Ocean

D-Day +67

12 August:

1st HAIS

Pipeline

4 Lines in total

D-Day +42 D-Day +80,

Paris Liberated

Page 35: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Offshore Drilling Rigs of Today

35 Data Source: Rystad Energy

Land RigJack-Up

Rig

Fixed

Platform

TLP

Tension Leg

Platform

Drill ShipFPSO (Floating

Production, Storage

& Off-loading)

Floating

Barge

Basic Concept

Anchored to the

Ocean Floor

Retractable

Pylons

Highly classified

Mulberrys employed

after the D-Day

Invasion of 6 June

1944.

Offshore drilling

companies adopted

this jack-up pier

technology after the

war.

Ancestors of

today’s jack-up

rigs.

Mulberry Harbors

Page 36: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Mulberry Harbors → Jack Up Rigs

36

Mulberry B - "Port Winston" at

Arromanches (Gold Beach) in

September 1944

used for 10 months after D-Day

✓ over 2.5 million men,

✓ 500,000 vehicles

✓ 4 million tonnes of supplies

Offshore exploration advances

in USA

Kerr McGee’s 1947 success

✓ KerrMac No. 16

✓ 20’ of water -Gulf of Mexico.

✓ first producing well out of

sight of land

Mulberrys used barges (Piers) 200’ x 60’ feet wide, each with four retractable 60-foot pylons

to provide platforms to support floating causeways (Pontoons) that extended to the beaches.

Page 37: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Global Offshore Drilling Rigs byType

37 Data Source: Rystad Energy

32%

68%

30%

70%

Floater

Jack-up

Page 38: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Conclusion

38

End of Normandy Section

Next up: Burma Ledo Rd

Page 39: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

39

The Historical role of Line Pipe in Warfare

CBI Theater –The left-hand symbol represents China.

The star symbolizes the "Star of India".

The red, white, and blue represent the United States.

Ledo Road –The winding road proceeds through Burma to China

(represented by the sun).

The three stars represent the three countries involved:

China, Burma, and India.

Burma Ledo Road Pipeline

Page 40: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

40

Burma Ledo Road Pipeline

Ledo

Kunming

Rangoon

India

India

ChinaLashio

The Hump begins in April 1942 to August 1945

Japan invades Burma early 1942,

Flying Tigers: Dec 1941 – July 1942, 8

Construction begins 16 December 1942, 2.3

5307th Galahad: Jan 1944 – August 1944, 8

Construction completed early 1945

Japan surrenders Sept 2nd 1945

Myitkyina

475th Regiment: August 1944 replaces 5307th

23rd Fighter Group: July 1942 replaces Flying Tigers

British Chindits deploy to Burma, 1943-1944

Page 41: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Burma Ledo Road, The Builders

41

Built by seventeen thousand Americans, Ledo Road cost 1,133 fatalities, 624 from combat.

Page 42: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Burma Ledo Road Pipeline Construction

42

Page 43: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

Burma Ledo Road Bridge Construction

43

Page 44: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

44

Burma Ledo Road Construction

Page 45: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

45

Flying Tigers: Burma Ledo Road

The First American Volunteer Group (AVG) of the

Chinese Air Force in 1941–1942, nicknamed the

Flying Tigers, was composed of pilots from the

United States Army Air Corps (USAAC), Navy (USN),

and Marine Corps (USMC), recruited under

President Franklin Roosevelt's authority before

Pearl Harbor and commanded by Claire Lee

Chennault. The mission was to bomb Japan and

defend China.

SIZE: 3 squadrons; 60 aircraft average:

Officially credited with 297 enemy aircraft destroyed.

14 pilots were killed in action, captured, or disappeared on combat missions.

Aces: 19 pilots were credited by the with 6 or more air-to-air victories

Feature films: Flying Tigers, 1942, starring John Wayne and John Carroll as fighter pilots.

The Sky's the Limit, 1943, starring Fred Astaire as a Flying Tiger ace on leave

Hers to Hold, 1943, with Joseph Cotten)

God is My Co-Pilot, 1945

China's Little Devils 1945

Page 46: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

46

The Hump: Burma Ledo Road

"The Hump“: a 530 mile

stretch crossed the

Himalayan foothills into

China from Assam,

India. •594 aircraft lost, missing, or written off

•1,659 personnel killed or missing

Casualties and losses April 1942 to August 1945

Initially given to the

AAF's Tenth Air Force,

and then to its Air

Transport Command

(ATC).

Inefficient & incredibly

dangerous

Page 47: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

47

Merrill’s Marauders

Merrill’s Marauders or Unit Galahad, officially named the 5307th Composite Unit, was a United States Army long range penetration

special operations jungle warfare unit, which fought in the South-East Asian theatre of World War II, or China-Burma-India Theater.

DecorationsPresidential Unit Citation

Every member awarded the Bronze Star

6 Distinguished Service Crosses

4 Legions of Merit

44 Silver Star Medals

25 inducted into the Army Ranger Hall of Fame

(More than any other Ranger Unit)

In early 1944, the Marauders were organized

On 10 August 1944, the 5307th was disbanded with

a final total of 130 combat-effective officers and

men. Of the 2,750 to enter Burma, only two were

left alive who had never been hospitalized with

wounds or major illness. None of the horses and

only 41 of the 360 mules survived.

Page 48: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

48

Merrill’s Marauders: UNIT PATCH

Current 2020: 75th Ranger Regiment

The Sun represents daylight operations,

The Star signifies night capabilities.

The Lightning Bolt signifies the swiftness of their strikes,

Original 1944: Merrill’s Maurauders

The Sun: From the Chinese National Flag for the unit's close cooperation with Chinese forces.

The Star: Represents the “ the 8 point star of Burma" for the Marauders area of operations.

The Lightning Bolt: Stands for the speed and force that the Marauders struck the enemy.

Page 49: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

49

Burma Ledo Road Construction

Arial view of first convoy on Burma Road Famous Zig-Zag near the Burma Road

Page 50: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables

50

Burma Ledo Road Pipeline: END

End of Presentation

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51

End of Presentation

Page 52: Energy Tubulars: Supply Update and Demand Prospects · Current Energy Pipe Mill Capacity & Utilization in North America An examination of current Tubular demand load A look at Renewables