energy talk

8/6/2019 Energy Talk

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Energy Crises: Their Imminence, Size,

Impact

Sanjay. V. Khare

Department of Physics and Astronomy,

The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH-43606

http://www.physics.utoledo.edu/~khare/


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Four Distinct Crises

Problem Imminence Impact Awareness

I Global WarmingApproaching

(5 to 10 years)

GRADUAL over

10 100+ yearsHIGH

II Peak Production

Liquid Fuels

Now

(-3 to 5 years)

CATASTROPICUndertanding is

POOR

III Peak Production

Total Energy

Approaching

(10 to 15 years)CATASTROPIC

Understanding

is POOR

IV Peak Other

Materials (food, top

soil, fertile land,

H2O, P, U, Au)

Now

(0 to 5 years)

CATASTROPIC

Can be

exacerbated by

I - III

INCREASING


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Peak Liquid Fuels

Best

estimates

of future

world oilproduction


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Peak Total Energy

Total Energy

Use, 1965 to

2050(Courtesy: Paul

Chefurka)


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Mitigation

Type of Effort Importance

Conservation and efficiency, personal and societal High

Rapid deployment of existing technology, public

transport, electric-transport, wind, solar-heat andphotovoltaic, geothermal

High

Raising awareness by scientists and engineers of

locals, media and policy makersHigh

Applied engineering researchMedium term

(5 10 years)

Fundamental research done today will have scaled

impact after 20 years

Long Term

(10 20 years)


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Thank YouReferences:

www.theoildrum.com

www.energybulletin.net

www.aspo-usa.org

Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak; By

Kenneth S. Deffeyes Out ofGas: The End of the Age ofOil; By David

Goodstein

Twilight in the Dessert; by Matthew R. Simmons


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Solar Energy of Commercially-Available

Thin Film Technologies, a-Si most clearly

has no fundamental material limitations


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Crystalline PV

production

rate expected to

slowover next few

years due

to silicon

shortage.

Thin film PV

productionrate expected to

continue

to increase.


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One aspect of energy quality: a comparison of the energy content per unit

mass and per unit volume for various sources.


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Balloon graph representing quality (y graph) and quantity (x graph) of the United

States economy for various fuels at various times. Arrows connect fuels from various

times (i.e. domestic oil in 1930, 1970, 2005), and the size of the balloon represents

part of the uncertainty associated with ERO

I estimates.(Source: US EIA, Cutler Cleveland and C. Halls own EROI work in preparation)


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Power densities for fossil and renewable fuels. (Source: Smil, V.

2006. ''21st century energy: Some sobering thoughts.''O

ECDObserver 258/59: 22-23.)

Power Density


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Energy Surplus

The energy return on investment (EROI) for various

fuel sources in the U.S. (Source: Cutler Cleveland)


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Energy and basic human needs. The international relationship between

energy use (kilograms of oil equivalent per capita) and the Human

Development Index (2000). (Source: UNDP, 2002, WRI, 2002)


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Peak may have occurred about time of

Hurricane Katrina (2005)


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But US oil production began to decline

in 1970


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Many oil fields,countries, and oilcompanies havealready peaked.

The US peaked in1970.

53 of 68 oilproducingcountries are in

decline.


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Oil discoveries in the US peaked

- then 40 years laterproduction peaked

Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000

The US lower 48 states


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If the world follows the US pattern:

Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist

the world would peak soon


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Theres no more spare capacity in

the world supply

Adapted from The OilAge is Over, Matt Savinar

Spare capacity =how much extra oilcan be producedwithin 30 days

notice andmaintained for 90

days

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1985 1990 2003 200

SPA E OIL

P ODUCTIO

CAPACITY


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Global Oil Production, 1965 to 2050


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Global Natural Gas Production, 1965 to 2050


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Global Coal Production, 1965 to 2050


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Global Hydro Production, 1965 to 2050


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Global Nuclear Production, 1965 to 2100


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Actual and Projected Wind Power, 1997 to 2050


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Actual and Projected Solar Power, 1996 to 2050


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OtherRenewable Energy Production, 1990 to 2100


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Energy Use by Source, 1965 to 2100


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The Global Energy Mix in 1965


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The life support pie is shrinking:

The foundation of allagriculture, the soil,is diminishing in allparts of the world

Aquifers are beingpumped dry

Forests aredisappearing

Fisheries arebeing

decimated

Biodiversity isbeing

extinguished

Rivers aredrying up


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Farming is an annual artificial catastrophe,

and it requires the equivalent of three or four

tons of TNT per acre for a modern Americanfarm. Iowa's fields require the energy of 4,000

Nagasaki bombs every year. 1

Fossil Fuel and Agriculture

1 Richard Manning; The Oil We Eat, Harpers, 2005. Mr. Manning was referring to the

growing of the worlds major grain crops - corn, rice and wheat.


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World population today stands at 5.8 billion and is

expected to increase to 8.0 billion by 2020. Cereals are

the world's most important stable nutrient source and

to meet future demand cereal production will need to

double by the year 2020. Production of other foodstuffswill also have to increase significantly.Fertilizer, both

organic and inorganic, will have to play a vital role if

the food production necessary to support the

i n c r e a s e d p o p u l a t i o n i s t o b e p r o v i d e d .

Fertilizer Association of Ireland


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Saudi saying:

My father rode a

camel.

I drive a car.

My son flies a jet

airplane.

His son will ride a

camel.


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A quad is a unit of energy equal to 1015 (a quadrillion) BTU,

or 1.055 1018joules (1.055 exajoules or EJ) in SI units.

1018 = exa- (EJ)


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1x electron-volt (eV) = 1.602 x 10-19joule

1 x calorie (cal.) = 4.1868 joules

1 x kilocalorie (kcal.) = 4.1868 x 103joules

1 x British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1,055 joules

= 252 cal.

1 x millions BTU (MMBTU) = 1.055 x 109joules

1 x quadrillion BTU (quad) = 1.055 x 1018joules

= 1 x 1015 BTU

1 x them = 1.055 x 108joules

= 1 x 105 BTU

1 x kilowatt-hour = 3.6 x 106joules

1 x megawatt-hour = 3.6 x 109joules

1 x gigawatt-hour = 3.6 x 1012joules1 x ton of oil equivalent (toe) = 4.1868 x 1010joules

1 x million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) = 4.1868 x 1016joules


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American barrel = 158.984 liters = 42 American (US) gallons = 3.78541 cubicdecimeters (dm3) = 0.136 tonne (approx)

1 MMSCF of natural gas = 172.3 barrels of crude oil equivalent = 365 x 1,000,000scf 1 million cu.ft. of natural gas = 18.91 tons liquid = 1598.69 cu.ft.liquid 1 std.cu.feetof natural gas = 1000 BTU = 252 kilocalories 1 m.ton of coal = 4.879 barrels of crudeoil equivalent 1 m.ton of lignite = 2.053 barrels of crude oil equivalent 1 ltr of fuel oil1500 sec = 38.9 cubic feet of natural gas 1 kg of LPG = 47.0 cubic feet of natural gas

1 normal cu.m. per day (Nm3/d) = 37.33 standard cu.ft. per day (SCFD) [flow rate ofgas] 1 ton of LNG = 1.14 1.4 x 103 normal cu.m.natural (LNG conversions) gas(Nm3) = 52.3 x 103 standard cubic feet natural gas (SCF) = 55.0 x 109 joules (HHV)1 ton of LNG = 1.22 tonne crude oil (energy equivalents) = 0.80 tonne heavy fuel oil =0.91 tonne LPG (commercial composition) = 1.91 tonne coal 1 barrel per day (b/d) =50 tonnes per year (approx.) 1 barrel of oil equivalent = 1 barrel of crude oil = 5,487cubic feet of gas **

Natural gas is converted to barrels of oil equivalent using a ratio of 5,487 cubic feet ofnatural gas per one barrel of crude oil. This ratio is based on the actual averageequivalent energy content of TOTAL's natural gas reserves.

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