energy security vicepresidence for sectors and knowledge. infrastructure and environment sector....
TRANSCRIPT
SUMMIT IMPLEMENTATION REVIEW GROUP (SIRG) OEA/Ser.E Sixth Regular Meeting of 2008 GRIC/O.6/doc.3/08 December 10-12, 2008 9 December 2008 Hotel Royal Decameron Salinitas Original: English El Salvador
PRESENTATIONS BY THE PARTNER INSTITUTIONS OF THE JOINT SUMMIT WORKING GROUP - JSWG
INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
(Energy Security)
ENERGY SECURITY
Vicepresidence for Sectors and
Knowledge . Infrastructure and
Environment Sector . Energy Division
German CruzDecember 2008
V Summit of the Americas 2009
Primary Energy
• Crude oil is the more accessible and commercial form of primary energy around the world
• Petroleum derivates can be used for transportation sector o thermal power generation
• Other fossil sources like gas, or coal are used fundamentally for thermal power generation.
• Other sources supply of primary energy, like hydro, wind, or solar, can be used only for electric power generation
Source: OLADE SIEE, 2005
Primary Energy Supply
0
20
40
60
80
100
%
AndeanRegion
Caribbean CentralAmerica
SouthernCone
Mexico LAC
Primary Energy Supply
Fossil Fuel Renewable Energy
Western Hemisphere- oil
Hemisferio Occidental: Producción y Consumo de Petróleo (mbd) 1965 - 2006
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Producción (mbd)
Consumo (mbd)
Importación (mbd)
Fuente: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007
Western Hemisphere- oil 2020
Hemisferio Occidental: Producción y Consumo de Petróleo (mbd) 1965 - 2020
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Producción (mbd)
Consumo (mbd)
Importación (mbd)
Fuente: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007 y Cálculos Propios
1985 1995 2005% of total
stocksWestern
Hemisphere
164 173 163 ~ 0%
North-America
102 89 59 36.5%
South-America
63 84 104 63.5%
Non-Andean
5 10 16 9.9%
Andean 57 73 87 53.6%
Western Hemisphere Oil Stocks (Bb)
Energy Sector in Latin America and the
Caribbean• Energy production and consumption in the region
is comparatively low, although these are rising.• The intensity of energy use and energy supply
varies across the region. • Much of the region’s energy consumption is
concentrated in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Venezuela.
• Across the region, the sectors consuming the most energy are:– Industry (region-wide average of 38%)– Transportation (32% on average)
Evolution of Electricity Generation by source
- Latin America -
Energy supply LAC- 2004
Source: Altamonte, 2006. ‘Renewable Energy Sources in LAC: 2 years after Bonn’
Geothermal, 0.5%
Hydroenergy, 11.3%
Vegetable coal, 1.5%
Industrial Timber, 0.7%
Residential Timber, 3.6%
Agricultural Timber, 0.3%
Cane products, 5.7%
Other renew ables,
1.3%
Oil, 41.7%
Nuclear, 1.6%
UnsustainableTimber
2.2%
Coal, 4.8%
Natural gas,
24.5%
Renewable,
24.8%
Other non-
renewables,
0.5%
Renewable Energy in LAC*• Today, renewable sources of energy generate 24.8%
of LAC’s electricity.
– Studies indicate they could generate up to 47% of the electric demand estimated for 2030.
• Biomass and biological wastes are another important source of renewable energy in the region
• Central America and the Caribbean could replace between 10% and 50% of their gasoline consumption through the production of ethanol generated from sugar cane.
* LAC: Latin American and the Caribbean
Hydropower• The region as a whole relies heavily on
hydroelectricity (Brazil, Colombia, etc.)• The region holds 21 % of global hydro-generation
capacity. • Most countries in the region use already a good
portion of their hydraulic potential to generate electricity.
• Most countries operate on the multi-megawatt range. However, small hydropower should be exploited as a good alternative given the high rainfall indices and rough topography of many countries.
Source: Huacuz, J., 2003
Hydropower Potential LAC
0.00
20,000.00
40,000.00
60,000.00
80,000.00
100,000.00
120,000.00
140,000.00
160,000.00
Brazil
Colom
bia Peru
Mex
ico
Venez
uela
Argen
tina
Bolivia
Chile
Ecuad
or
Paragu
ay
Guyan
a
Costa
Rica
Guatem
ala
Hondu
ras
Panam
a
Surina
me
El Salv
ador
Dom. R
ep.
Urugu
ay
Nicarag
uaCub
aHait
i
Jamaic
a
Barbad
os
Grenad
a
Trinida
d & T
obag
o
Pow
er (
MW
)
Hydropower, cont.
Source: OLADE, 2005. ‘Energy Statistics Report 2005’
Solar Energy• Thanks to its low cost is becoming an attractive means of bringing
electricity to isolated rural communities.
– The first solar cells cost around $200 dollars per watt. Today they cost less than $3 dollars per watt.
• Peru- Sustainable Rural Electrification: Installation of 12,500 Photovoltaic systems in rural households ill-suited for grid extension in four regions of the country.
• Chile- Rural Electrification Program: IDB financed US$40 million. Nearly 1,000 one-house photovoltaic systems have been installed in isolated rural dwellings.
Geothermal Energy• Costa Rica generates 98 percent of its electricity
through renewable sources, thanks in part to a growing reliance on geothermal energy.
• Mexico is now the world’s third largest producer of geothermal electricity. – It generates 953 MW for around 6,600 GWh of
geothermal energy per year, contributing 3.1% to the Mexico’s electricity supply (global geothermal supply is 0.442%).
– Studies have shown a potential for 3,650 MW (20,460 GWh) that could provide more than 12% of total electricity generation.
Source: Gawell & Greenberg, 2007. ‘2007 Interim Report, Update on World Geothermal Dev.’
Wind Energy
• Most commercial RE alternative in the developed world. Estimated $71 billion invested in RE worldwide in 2007, of which 47% was for wind.
• Principal component for decarbonizing society since free of GHG emissions
• New materials, turbine designs and new technologies have slashed the cost per watt
Wind Energy LAC• Good experiences with pilot projects at
different levels: Costa Rica (commercial), Colombia (technical cooperation).
• Brazil: Rapidly increasing its wind installed capacity:– 2006: 28MW – 2007: 237 MW– Expected increase from new projects: 1400 MW
• Mexico - La Venta II: total installed capacity of 83.3 MW and 307,728 MWh estimated yearly average generation. – Expected increase 3000 MW for 2006-2014
according to the Mexican Wind Energy Association
Biofuels
Sustained Biofuels• Certain importing markets will require biofuels that
meet certain sustainability standards.• LAC has the potential to be at the forefront of
creating a sustainable biofuels industry.• IDB partners with the Roundtable on Sustainable
Biofuels to increase investment in sustainable biofuels.
• The IDB is currently :- Developing internal sustainability guidelines for biofuels- Developing a “scorecard” to promote only the most sustainable biofuels
What lies ahead
• Increase energy efficiency and reduce harmful pollution while also promoting economic development.
• Investment needed in Energy in LAC (2005-2030)
• The energy demand in LAC will increase 75% by 2030.
• Required investments: US$ 1,600 billion
• In the next decade alone, LAC will require a 50% increase in its installed capacity, more than 90GW
Towards the future: Supply and Demand balance achieved through RE and EE
Renewable Energy: Importance
for Poverty Alleviation• Energy security has important implications on Poverty• Poverty is still higher than in 1980 in both relative
and absolute terms• Approx. 10% of total population (50 million people)
does not have electricity• Poverty relief linked to increased energy consumption• For the 16 countries which are net importers of oil,
the price increase of hydrocarbons poses an increasing challenge.
• Some of LAC’s major exporters are experiencing reduction in the productivity of their deposits
Sustainable Energy: A priority for the IDB
Challenges for the Region• Achieve sustainability of energy supply and
rational use of resources
• Energy access for all the population
• Within the region some countries face:
– Energy security issues and high energy bills
– Urban pollution problems and extreme vulnerability to climate change
• Regulatory and institutional frameworks
• Pre-investment resources to support project preparation and development
Conclusions• The Western Hemisphere is an energy net importer • The deficit originates from the energy gap of North
America• With declining stocks, this gap will tend to widen
with time. • Climate Change is likely to add extra strain to the
energy deficit.• Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency will
contribute to cover the energy deficit. • Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation are
becoming part of Energy Security strategies.