energy security in pakistan
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Security in PAKISTAN
Energy Security in PAKISTAN
Pakistan is in the midst of an energy crisis, facing a deficit of more than 7,000 megawatts (MW) and the deficit is currently increasing by a rate of 2% per annum.
Only 70% of houses have access to the National Grid and few ever experience uninterrupted power, especially in rural areas.
The problem is so large there are fears it could bring down the government.
Why?Over the last 10 years:
Population Growth
Up 36 million, now the world’s 6th most populous nation
Economic Growth
GDP increasing by an average 5% per year
Increased Consumption
Up over 23% since 2014 to 73.6 MTOE*
( *Million tonnes of oil equivalent )
Militant Attacks
Power stations, power lines and gas pipe lines have all been targeted
Reliance on Imports
Oil and increasingly gas, need to be imported
Government Infrastructure
Prices are kept low and many don’t pay their bills
Where Does Pakistan Currently get its Energy?
Oil Shortfall
8,02 GW
35%6,61 GW
29%
Hydropower
6,61 GW
29%
Nuclear
1,32 GW
6%
Gas Other(including solar and coal)
<0.13 GW
<1%5-6 GW
What are Pakistan’s Options?Hydropower
Seen by many as the best solution.
• Currently producing 7.2 MTOE
• Plan to increase production to 26,200 by 2030
• Domestic – does not depend on imports
• Cheapest renewable option per unit to generate Rs 1.50 ($0.02 USD)
• Expensive upfront costs
• Threat to the environment, both flooding and desertification
• Indus River alone potential to generate 40,000 MW
• Dasu Hydropower Project due for completion in 2019
• Karot Hydropower Project on Jhelum River due in 2020
• Neelum Jhelum plant due to complete 2016
Gas
• Sui gas field largest in Pakistan
• 75% drop in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices since 2014
• Plans to import up to 20 million tons by 2018
• First discovered in Pakistan in 1952
• Production falling domestically
• Estimated 8000 billion cubic metres remaining in Pakistan
• Expected to deplete domestic reserves circa 2035
Oil
• Finite resource
• Environmentally unfriendly
• Most must be imported
• Prices dropped heavily in last two years
Wind
• Turbines are incredibly space efficient
• 9,700 sq km wind corridor in Sindh,with potential to produce 43,000 MW
• Set up costs are high, but have dropped 80% since 1980
• Operational costs are low
• Can cause high levels of noise pollution
• Threat to native birds and bats
Solar
• Pakistan’s weather is suited, with few cloudy days,average 9.5 hours daily sun light
• Low running costs
• Suitable for remote locations
• High set up cost and expensive to repair
• In its infancy – 1st solar park opened in 2012
Nuclear
• Low operating costs once running
• Highly controversial, especially close to populated areas
• Karachi Nuclear Power plant, the first in Pakistan was commissioned in 1972
• Expensive to set up
Conclusion
Hydropower appears to be the most likely source of power to help Pakistan achieve energy security in the short term, with a number of key projects in the pipeline.
Long term security is likely only to be achieved through a combination of many of the above methods and a growing number of projects in each are expected over the coming years.
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