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EFFECTS OF ATLANTIC FOREST PATCHES ON WATER-
REGULATION ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Paulo Guilherme Molin
Danielle de Almeida Bressiani
Silvio F. de Barros Ferraz
Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Raghavan Srinivasan
University of São Paulo
Porto de Galinhas, August 2014
INTRODUCTION
• Forests today are results ofdiverse modification of theenvironment:• Biotic & Abiotic conditions;
• Climate;
• Anthropic patterns.
• Loss of forest cover has effects onecossystem services:• Biodiversity;
• Water quality & quantity;
• Carbon stock, etc.
STUDY AREA – Piracicaba River Basin
• Area = 12,500 km2
• Mean annual rainfall = 1,405 mm
• Mean natural flow = 143.9 m3 s1
• Population = 3.4 x106
• Pop density = 272 hab/km2
OBJETICTIVES
Model:
• Native vegetation cover for 2050 using 3 scenarios
Compare:
• Annual mean flow
• Annual mean water yield
• Dry season water yield
• Wet season water yield
Scale: 1:50,000
MMU: 900m²
Classification: Supervised
Source: Landsat 5 TM
METHODOLOGY Data Source
Landscape
Dynamics Analysis
DINAMICA EGO 2.0
LULC for 2 periods
• 1990-2000 e 2000-2010
PRODUCTS:
(1) Transition Matrices
(2) Land Cover Change
(3) Weights of Evidence (Drivers)
(4) Future LC Scenarios
(Soares Filho, 1998)
For more information: http://www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica, [email protected]
• Physical
• Soil types
• Distance to water (m)
• Distance to forest (m)
• Annual mean rainfall (mm)
• Slope (%)
• Altitude (m)
• Anthropogenic
• Total Population Density
• Rural Population Density
• Gross Domestic Product
• Distance to transportation
• Distance to urban zones
• Predominant land use
Independent Variables
Status Quo (A),
Native Vegetation Scenarios
(A) (B) (C)
Last decade tendency Last decade tendency
without deforestation
Riparian restoration
30, 50 & 100m
Law Enforcement (B),
Riparian Law Enforcement (C)
Hydrological Modeling
Bressiani, et al. 2014. Presented on the first day
NSE BR2 PBIAS
1 0.65 0.79 15.81
2 0.73 0.75 13.58
3 0.75 0.86 9.58
4 0.76 0.86 3.95
5 0.80 0.83 13.40
6 0.76 0.82 -0.88
7 0.78 0.86 4.82
8 0.71 0.88 -7.94
9 0.86 0.69 -2.34
10 0.67 0.79 3.56
11 0.77 0.81 -1.58
12 0.66 0.72 -4.36
13 0.79 0.83 1.36
14 0.83 0.88 8.61
15 0.83 0.86 14.61
16 0.83 0.89 8.29
Status Quo (A),
Law Enforcement (B),
Riparian Law Enforcement (C)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Na
tive
Ve
ge
tati
on
Co
ve
r (%
)
(A)
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(B)
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(C)
Forest Age & Cover
(A) (B) (C)2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Calibrated 2010 SQ 2050 LE 2050 RLE 2050
Wat
er
(mm
)
Average Annual Water Yield (mm)Surface Runoff Q (mm)
Lateral Soil Q (mm)
Groundwater Q (mm)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Na
tive
Ve
ge
tati
on
Co
ve
r (%
)
(SQ)
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(LE)
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(RLE)
+2.8%
-10.3%-3.0%
-20%-9%
-7%-3%
+4.6
%-
5.1%
-
0.7%
ET
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ET (
mm
)
Time (year)
Evapotranspiration
Calibrated 2010
SQ 2050
LE 2050
RLE 20504.9%
1.4%
-1.3%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Flo
w (
cms)
Time (months)
Average Monthly Flow
2010 CAL
2050 SQ
2050 LE
2050 RLE
20
10
_C
AL
20
50
_S
Q
20
50
_L
E
20
50
_R
LE
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
4.8
5.6
6.4
7.2
8.0
Y
2010_CAL 2050_SQ 2050_LE 2050_RLE
Min 0.22 0.17 0.15 0.16
Max 7.97 7.33 5.98 6.95
Variance 1.01 0.94 0.65 0.80
STD 1.01 0.97 0.81 0.90
Median 0.95 0.92 0.82 0.87
Flow/Watershed Area
20
10
_C
AL
20
50
_S
Q
20
50
_L
E
20
50
_R
LE
0.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
3.0
3.6
4.2
4.8
5.4
6.0
Y
2010_CAL 2050_SQ 2050_LE 2050_RLE
Min 0.94 0.91 0.73 0.80
Max 5.12 4.93 4.15 4.66
Mean 1.80 1.74 1.43 1.59
Variance 0.69 0.63 0.44 0.56
STD 0.83 0.79 0.66 0.75
Median 1.50 1.44 1.19 1.31
100 Dry Days
0
200
400
600
800
1000
0 7 15 22 30 37 45 52 60 67 75 82 90 97
Flo
w (
cms)
Percentage of Time (%)
Flow Duration Curve
2010 CAL
2050 SQ
2050 LE
2050 RLE
Figure 32. Water yield (mm) and precipitation (mm) outputs of individual scenarios of the Piracicaba River basin for a selected 100 days of rain
season.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
450
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
811
/5/2
009
11
/12
/200
9
11
/19
/200
9
11
/26
/200
9
12
/3/2
009
12
/10
/200
9
12
/17
/200
9
12
/24
/200
9
12
/31
/200
9
1/7
/20
10
1/1
4/2
010
1/2
1/2
010
1/2
8/2
010
2/4
/20
10
2/1
1/2
010
Pre
cip
itati
on
(m
m)
Wate
r yie
ld (
mm
)
Timeline (days)
Precipitation 2010 Calibrated 2050 SQ 2050 LE 2050 RLE
Figure 33. Water yield (mm) and precipitation (mm) outputs of individual scenarios of the Piracicaba River basin for a selected 100 days of drought
season.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
500
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
27
/29
/20
07
8/5
/20
07
8/1
2/2
00
7
8/1
9/2
00
7
8/2
6/2
00
7
9/2
/20
07
9/9
/20
07
9/1
6/2
00
7
9/2
3/2
00
7
9/3
0/2
00
7
10
/7/2
00
7
10
/14
/20
07
10
/21
/20
07
10
/28
/20
07
11
/4/2
00
7
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(m
m)
Wat
er
yie
ld (
mm
)
Timeline (days)
Precipitation 2010 Calibrated 2050 SQ 2050 LE 2050 RLE
y = -0.1014x + 0.018R² = 0.9906
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%W
ate
r Y
ield
(%
))
Forest Percentage Area in the Watershed (%)
Water Yield
y = -0.0984x - 0.0491R² = 0.9901
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Flo
w a
t th
e O
utl
let
(%)
Forest Percentage Area in the Watershed (%)
Flowy = 0.0476x - 0.0083
R² = 0.9917
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
ET
(%
)
Forest Percentage Area in the Watershed (%)
ET
y = -0.1684x + 0.0027R² = 0.9836
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Ru
no
ff (
%)
Forest Percentage Area in the Watershed (%)
Runoff
Conclusions
• Decrease in forest:
• ET increase
• Flow decrease
• Runoff decrease
• Water yield decrease
• More analysis on spatial distribution differences
• Ecosystem payments services
ACKNOWLEGMENTS