edward caffarella , state university of new york, college at cortland
DESCRIPTION
Special Education Teacher Shortages – Building the Data Systems and Predictive Models to Understand the Scope of the Problem. Edward Caffarella , State University of New York, College at Cortland Rorie Fitzpatrick , Nevada Department of Education William Lange , Lange Research and Evaluation - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Special Education Teacher Shortages – Building the Data Systems and Predictive Models to Understand
the Scope of the Problem
Edward Caffarella, State University of New York, College at CortlandRorie Fitzpatrick, Nevada Department of Education
William Lange, Lange Research and EvaluationSharon Schumacher, Alaska Department of Ed. and Early Development
Today’s Objectives• Share Nevada’s & Alaska’s Experiences
– Tracking Teacher Attrition– Predicting Supply & Demand
• Students and Teachers• Discuss the Issues, Using Real Data• Share Some Troubling Trends• Contemplate the Impacts and Next Steps
Teacher Attrition in
Nevada
Edward Caffarella, State University of New York, College at Cortland
Rorie Fitzpatrick, Nevada Department of Education
Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) performance measure #5 • The Statewide number and percentage of
highly qualified special education teachers in State-identified professional disciplines consistent with sections 602(a)(10) and 612(a)(14) of IDEA, who remain teaching after the first three years of employment.
• 483 started / 261 remained = 54%
Mentoring New Special Education Teachers
• Clark County (Las Vegas area)
• Washoe County (Reno area)
Mentoring New Special Education Teachers
• Clark County (Las Vegas area)• Lost 16% after 1 year• Lost 30% after 2 years
• Washoe County (Reno area)• Lost 25% after 1 year• Lost 45%% after 2 years
• Statewide• Lost 19% after 1 year• Lost 32% after 2 years
About the Data Source• Teaching Assignment Database
– Teacher, Class, School, District• Teacher Certification Database
– Teacher, Certifications, Age• Used for Reporting Highly Qualified Teachers
under NCLB• Designed to look within the year• Rotated database to look across multiple years
Actual Data• Using existing data • All teachers since 1997• Repurposed the data• Tracked a Teacher’s Career • Full Population
Nevada Special Education TeachersStarted
in fall
ofTotal
Hired
Leftafter
1 year
Left after
2 years
Left after
3 years
Left after
4 years
Left after
5 years
Left after
10 years
Still Teaching
Fall 2008
1998 346 77 39 34 29 18 17 871999 397 77 39 46 28 28 1172000 397 81 50 27 33 22 1362001 373 89 42 47 29 25 1082002 439 82 63 57 24 37 1482003 415 76 69 49 24 30 1672004 473 89 69 45 26 2442005 483 78 56 88 2612006 543 104 72 3672007 452 77 3752008 498 498
Nevada Special Education TeachersStarted
in fall
ofTotal
Hired
Leftafter
1 year
Left after
2 years
Left after
3 years
Left after
4 years
Left after
5 years
Left after
10 years
Still Teaching
Fall 2008
1998 346 22% 11% 10% 8% 5% 5% 25%1999 397 19% 10% 12% 7% 7% 29%2000 397 20% 13% 7% 8% 6% 34%2001 373 24% 11% 13% 8% 7% 29%2002 439 19% 14% 13% 5% 8% 34%2003 415 18% 17% 12% 6% 7% 40%2004 473 19% 15% 10% 5% 52%2005 483 16% 12% 18% 54%2006 543 19% 13% 68%2007 452 17% 83%2008 498 100%
Cumulative % Nevada Special Education TeachersStarted
in fall
ofTotal
Hired
Leftafter
1 year
Left after
2 years
Left after
3 years
Left after
4 years
Left after
5 years
Left after
10 years
Still Teaching
Fall 2008
1998 346 22% 34% 43% 52% 57% 75% 25%1999 397 19% 29% 41% 48% 55% 29%2000 397 20% 33% 40% 48% 54% 34%2001 373 24% 35% 48% 55% 62% 29%2002 439 19% 33% 46% 51% 60% 34%2003 415 18% 35% 47% 53% 60% 40%2004 473 19% 33% 43% 48% 52%2005 483 16% 28% 46% 54%2006 543 19% 32% 68%2007 452 17% 83%2008 498 100%
Cum
ulati
ve %
of N
V Sp
Ed
Teac
hers
Re
mai
ning
Teac
hing
After X Years 1 5 10Statewide 81% 42% 25%Orthopedic Impairments 67% 67% 67%Adapted Physical Education 79% 60% 58%Speech & Language Impaired 90% 55% 34%Hearing Impaired 88% 51% 29%Mental Retardation 80% 51% 34%Gifted and Talented 83% 49% 19%Visually Impaired 76% 48% 28%Multiple/Diversely Impaired 77% 44% 21%Seriously Emotionally Disturbed 80% 42% 24%Autism 79% 41% 29%Early Childhood Develop Delayed 80% 40% 29%Generalist 79% 39% 19%Specific Learning Disabilities 87% 36% 21%Health Impairments, not Orthopedic 100% 33% 33%American Sign Language 100% 25% 0%
Nevada Regular Education Teachers
Started in
fall of
Total Hired
Leftafter
1 year
Left after
2 years
Left after
3 years
Left after
4 years
Left after
5 years
Left after
10 years
Still Teaching
Fall 2008
1998 1670 218 143 146 105 95 45 6281999 1637 215 166 137 88 107 6322000 1464 182 133 112 85 118 6452001 1540 203 142 140 82 94 7272002 1665 242 175 155 88 90 8232003 1536 218 143 139 88 82 8662004 2179 303 249 196 123 13082005 2380 345 237 205 15932006 2602 328 286 19882007 2239 328 19112008 1254 1254
Nevada Regular Education Teachers
Started in
fall of
Total Hired
Leftafter
1 year
Left after
2 years
Left after
3 years
Left after
4 years
Left after
5 years
Left after
10 years
Still Teaching
Fall 2008
1998 1670 13% 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 6281999 1637 13% 10% 8% 5% 7% 6322000 1464 12% 9% 8% 6% 8% 6452001 1540 13% 9% 9% 5% 6% 7272002 1665 15% 11% 9% 5% 5% 8232003 1536 14% 9% 9% 6% 5% 8662004 2179 14% 11% 9% 6% 13082005 2380 14% 10% 9% 15932006 2602 13% 11% 19882007 2239 15% 19112008 1254 1254
Cumulative % NV Reg. Ed. Teachers
Started in
fall of
Total Hired
Leftafter
1 year
Left after
2 years
Left after
3 years
Left after
4 years
Left after
5 years
Left after
10 years
Still Teaching
Fall 2008
1998 1670 13% 22% 30% 37% 42% 62% 6281999 1637 13% 23% 32% 37% 44% 6322000 1464 12% 22% 29% 35% 43% 6452001 1540 13% 22% 31% 37% 43% 7272002 1665 15% 25% 34% 40% 45% 8232003 1536 14% 24% 33% 38% 44% 8662004 2179 14% 25% 34% 40% 13082005 2380 14% 24% 33% 15932006 2602 13% 24% 19882007 2239 15% 19112008 1254 1254
Cumulative Percentage of Nevada Teachers Remaining Teaching
by Years of ServiceAfter X Years 1 2 3 4 5 10Regular Only 86% 77% 68% 62% 57% 38%Special Only 84% 72% 62% 56% 49% 33%Mixed 100% 95% 92% 87% 83% 65%All Teachers 87% 77% 68% 63% 57% 39%USA Total* 86% 76% 67% 60% 54%
*from National Commission on Teaching and America's Future. (2003). No Dream Denied: A Pledge to America's Children. Washington, DC: NCTAF.
Percentage of NV Teachers by Assignment 1997-2008
Number% of Total
% of Sp Ed
All service regular 34,625 82.2%All service special 5,526 13.1% 73.6%Reg Ed changed to Sp Ed 582 1.4% 7.8%Reg Ed to Sp Ed & back to Reg 351 0.8% 4.7%Sp Ed changed to Reg Ed 742 1.8% 9.9%Sp Ed to Reg & back to Sp Ed 167 0.4% 2.2%Other changing assignment 137 0.3% 1.8%TOTAL 42,130TOTAL any special education 7,505TOTAL mixed 1,979
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
73
75
77
79
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Age of State of Nevada Special Education Teachers Currently Close to Retirement on
Oct. 1, 1997 (green solid), 2003 (yellow dash), & 2008 (light blue dot)
21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 780.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%Percentage of Nevada Teachers for Each Age
Reg.
Spec.
Bermuda Triangle
• High Attrition Rates• Large Numbers At or
Approaching Retirement • Difficulty Hiring New Sp Ed
Teachers
System Development Considerations
• Use actual data• Sp Ed trends get buried in overall data• Mixed assignments = high retention rates• Losing large numbers of new teachers• Losing more special education teachers
than regular education teachers