29

Ecoregional Climate Change and Biodiversity Decline

issue 1

Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

CLIMATE

PASSPORT

of the Ecoregion

MONGOLIA

R U S S I A

KAZAKSTAN

Mong

olia

nA ltai

K hang ai R id g e

Kham

ar-DabanRidge

East

S

ayan

We s

t Say

an

Tannu-O l

a R.

Katun R.Sailug

emR.

Terektin R. Uvs-NuurLake

HevsygulLake

BaykalLake

Sengilen R.GreatLakeBasin

T ie n-S h a n

G obiysky AltaiC H I N A

Gobi Desert

Orhon Valley

KH AK

AS

I AR

ep

.

ALTAI Rep. TY VA Rep.

BURYAT Rep.

Kuznetsk

Alatau Mt.R.

A great system of mountain ranges and valleys are situated in the very centerof Eurasia, where two of the largest rivers in the world, the Ob’ and the Yenisei,originate. It is the natural “inner core” of Eurasia and the motherland of manypeoples.

Altai�Sayan mountain country is included in WWF’s “Global 200”�a list of virginor little changed ecoregions in the world, where more than 90% of the planet’sbiodiversity is concentrated. The floral and faunal diversity of Altai�Sayan isespecially unique for temperate latitudes. Large mammals the Snow Leopard(Irbis) and the Altai Mountain Sheep, Argali, are endangered species of theregion.

The Altai�Sayan ecoregion occupies nearly 1065,000 sq. km., 2,000 km fromeast to west, and 1,500 km from north to south. About 62% is located inRussia, 29% in Mongolia, 5% in Kazakhstan, and 4% in China. The regionincludes the mountain systems of Altai, Sayan and vast intermountain basins,and its highest peak is Belukha Mount (4506 m) in Altai.

The Altai�Sayan mountain country expects climate changes almost as strongas in the Arctic zone and much stronger than in the average in the temperatelatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Catastrophic floods caused by thesudden melting of snow, serve as a vivid illustration of such changes, such asoccurred in Tyva in 2001.

Since 1998, WWF is implementing a project for long�term conservation of biodiversity in the ecoregion, and starting in 2001, it includes climaticcomponent. The creation of an “ecological network” of protected areas wasone of the main tasks. A basic framework for the system has been developedby WWF experts, including 86 existing and 119 new areas with total area of 19.5 million hectares. Four protected areas of 850 thousand hectares havealready established under WWF support. A Russian national strategy andaction plan for Mongolia in the conservation of Irbis and Argali have beendeveloped.

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WWF has established a very timely,

ambitious, but very difficult target

to prepare and begin

implementation of climate

adaptation strategies and action

plans for 50 countries and

ecoregions in the world by the

year 2010. Unfortunately it is clear

that the Altai�Sayan ecoregion will

be included in the 50 most

vulnerable regions demanding

assistance. Development and

implementation of the “action

plans on climate change” demand

thorough developmental work.

The preparation of the given

climate brochure is the first step in

this way. The preparation of similar

brochures for all ecoregions is

suggested. Their role is to attract

the attention of authorities,

ecologists, and general public to

climate changes in the region,

danger to ecosystems, and point

out the first recommendations

aimed at prevention or, at least,

reduce a damage.

Two years ago the WWF

“Altai�Sayan Millennium Initiative”

was drawn up and adopted,

proclaiming new solution principles

for global ecological problems. The

heads of all Russian, Mongolian,

and Kazakhstan regions signed

the Initiative and confirmed

willingness to prioritise natural

resource conservation among

economic development. Such an

approach should also be used for

the solution of climate change

problems in regions responsible for

Earth’s biodiversity conservation.

Igor Chestin

Director, WWF Russia

11

of the

Altai�Sayan

Ecoregion

Number in the WWF Global 200

#79

CLIMATE

PASSPORT

2Modern Climate of the Ecoregion2

Climate, weather and seasonal changesare principle determinants of life in anyecosystem. Although weather can bethought of as a manifestation of the climate at any given moment, the term “climate” is understood to be acombination of many parameters for anextended period of time: average,maximum and minimum temperatures; airhumidity; wind speed; precipitation;hydrological phenomena, etc. The World

Meteorological Organisation (WMO)recommends using the 30�year periodfrom 1961 to 1990 to characterise themodern climate, by calculating climatechanges from the average valuesobserved during these years. Theabsolute values of the currently observedchanges have been registered more thanonce in the past. However, it is the veryfast rate at which these changes aretaking place that is unique, and it is this

rate which poses the gravest danger. Theproblem is that biological communities willnot have enough time to adapt or tomigrate, and thus, unfortunately, willsuffer the most dramatic of conse�quences.

The climate of the Altai�Sayan region isdetermined by its location in the verycenter of the Asian continent, and thepeculiarities of atmospheric circulationand relief. Due to the remoteness fromoceans, the climate can be consideredsharply continental, especially in thesouthern part. The characteristic featureof the region is the western “transfer” – thewind that dominates the entire year at aheight of 1000�2000 meters. A relief

Modern Climate of the Ecoregion

Station

Kiselyovsk I –17.2 –12.6 –21.1 4 –50 77 17 3.4(Kuzbass) VII 18.8 24.9 13.0 38 2 70 15 2.7

Annual 0.9 6.4 –3.9 38 –50 71 436 3.5

Nenastnaya I –15.6 –12.2 –19.0 6 –39 74 118 7.9(Kuznetskiy VII 13.3 18.0 9.8 30 –1 77 133 2.7Alatau) Annual –2.6 1.6 –6.0 30 –42 74 1507 5.9

Chemal I –12.4 –7.4 –17.0 15 –42 63 9 4.1(Altai Rep.) VII 18.1 25.8 12.1 39 3 72 105 1.7

Annual –3.3 10.4 –2.4 39 –42 65 529 2.7

Olenya Rechka I –19.2 –16.1 –21.4 –2 –41 74 53 4.7(West Sayan) VII 12.3 17.6 7.8 29 –3 78 191 1.1

Annual –3.6 0.9 –7.2 38 –41 74 1327 2.2

Kyzyl I –32.1 –26.1 –37.0 –6 –53 74 10 0.7(Tyva Rep.) VII 19.8 26.9 13.2 38 3 57 52 2.2

Annual –3.4 3.5 –9.6 38 –54 64 228 1.8

Orlik I –24.4 –16.9 –30.2 –0 –46 73 2 1.4(East Sayan, VII 13.1 21.5 5.8 33 –4 73 92 1.0Buryat Rep.) Annual –5.1 3.2 –12.1 33 –48 67 325 1.5

Irkutsk I –20.6 –15.0 –25.5 2 –50 80 14 1.9(Irkutsk Oblast) VII 17.6 24.7 11.3 36 0 74 101 2.1

Annual –0.9 5.8 –6.9 36 –50 72 466 2.3

Ulaangom I –32.3 –26.9 –37 –12 –49.6 75 1.9 0.7(Uvs) VII 19 25.4 12.2 33.7 0.4 56 37.7 1.5

Annual –3.6 2.9 –9.7 36.4 –49.6 64 138.4 1.4

Bayan Ulgii I –17.2 –10.7 –22.6 4.2 –37.9 71 0.8 2.2(Bayan Ulgii) VII 16.3 22.6 10.7 32.3 0.6 63 34.2 2.4

Annual 0.2 7 –5.7 32 –40.2 61 115.5 2.8

Khovd I –24.4 –16.3 –30.2 8.7 –46.6 85 1.5 0.7(Khovd) VII 18.5 24.7 12.1 33.4 1.5 58 37.9 1.4

Annual –0.2 7.1 –6.7 35.6 –46.6 65 127.4 1.5

Renchinlkhumbe I –32.4 –27.7 –37 –6.8 –50.1 80 2.5 0.4(Hevsygul) VII 12.6 19.6 5.8 29.3 –2.5 67 78.5 1.2

Annual –7.8 –0.7 –14.4 30.8 –50.1 71 263.1 1.3

Abso

lute

m

inim

um

Mon

th/y

ear

Air Temperature, oС

Mea

n

Aver

age

max

imum

Aver

age

min

imum

Rela

tive

hum

idity

, (%

)

Prec

ipat

ion

amou

nt, m

m

Mea

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ndsp

eed,

m/s

Abso

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m

axim

um

Average climate parameters of the region in 1961–1990

Main mountain ranges:

Katun, West Sayan,Mongolian Altai,East Sayan

Highest peak:

Belukha Mount � 4506 m

Largest rivers:

Ob’, Yenisei (two ofthe ten largest

rivers of the World)

similar to that of the alpine region deter�mines the wide diversity of local climateconditions.

In winter the center of a powerful Asiananticyclone is situated just to the south ofthe region, which results in cold andparticularly prolonged winters withextreme temperature inversions. Thus,the surface air temperature in intermon�tane depressions is considerably lowerthan on the mountain slopes. Because of

seeping into the southern, Mongolian partof the region. These conditions allow forkeeping cattle out in the open, and alsoprovide an opportunity for wild ungulates,including the mountain sheep argali, tograze without the exhausting longseasonal migrations. Heavy snowfalls andthaws, which are unfavourable foranimals, are also very rare in this area. Inwinter the average temperature variesfrom �15 OC to �35 OC, while day and nighttemperature fluctuations of 20 OC andeven 30 OC are common. And due to inver�sions the temperature in the enclosedmountain depressions can even drop aslow as �50 OC. Such heavy cold causes thespread of permafrost in northern

Mongolia that is found nowhere else in theworld at these latitudes.

As a rule, the winter weather in thenorthern, Russian part is also cold. Anddue to inversions, the temperature mayeven fall to �30 OC in the intermontanedepressions. A record low of �60 OC wasonce registered in the Chuisk steppe.However when the influence of the Asianwinter anticyclone and its western“branch” is weakened, the cyclone“bursts” with sudden thaws, and strongwinds and intensive snowfalls becomemore frequent. Accumulation of snow onthe leeward slopes of peaks andwatersheds along with heavy snow cover(up to 3�5 meters, and in some gorges up

this condition, the vegetation on theslopes develops earlier in the year thanthe vegetation in the depressions. On thewhole, there are between 120 to 250 dayswith snow cover in different parts of theregion. There are also about 1,000glaciers in the region, the most distin�guished ones being the valley glaciers ofthe Katun and Chuisk mountain ranges,whose length reaches 8�10 kilometres.Snow cover stays year round at heights ofmore than 2,300�2,400 meters in thenorth�west, and at heights of 3,100�3,500meters in the south�eastern portion of theecoregion.

The mountain ranges prevent humidairflow from the west and north�west from

3Modern Climate of the Ecoregion

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

3

Average minimum and maximum air temperature in the Altai�Sayan region in January (up) and July (down) (average for 1961�1990)

Average air temperature in Eurasia and in the Altai�Sayan region in January (left) and July (right) (average for 1961�1990)

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to 10�15 meters) force ungulates andother predatory mammals to migrate.Snowy winters are the most unfavourableclimate factor for animals.

In spring as the continent warms up, theAsian anticyclone dwindles. The periodbeginning in the end of March to thebeginning of May is characterized byrather unstable weather, especially in thecentral and southern parts of the region. Itis during this period that a thicker snowcover and ice�crusted ground are mostoften formed, which tend to severelyimpede the animals in their acquisition offood. Large temperature fluctuations andstorms that bring sand and snow aretypical here, especially in the Gobi region,where wind speeds can reach up to 15�25m/sec. Even in May and sometimes Junenight frosts are common.

In summer the Front�Asian thermaldepression is formed to the south of theregion, and more vividly expressed cycloneactivity begins. Summer in the mountainsis short and cool; in July the averagetemperature at a height of 1,000 metersusually does not exceed +15 OC. InMongolia up to 70�80% of annual precipi�tation falls during the formation of thedepression. Autumn is short but is truly thebest time of the year, as it is characterizedby sunny, dry weather and a gentle breeze.Night frosts start again in September butsometimes occur even in August.

Precipitation levels depend on both thealtitude and the direction of the mountainranges. The east�west direction of the Altairanges allows the westerly winds to carrythe humid air masses deep into the region,

and up to the Western Sayan. Moisturecondensation on the high ranges has atendency to cause heavy rain. The largestamount of precipitation (up to 800�1,200mm, and in some places up to 2,000 mmper year) falls on the western and north�eastern slopes, which face the humid airmasses. In summer the north�easternwinds formed over Siberia reinforce therains on the north�eastern ranges of theWestern and Eastern Sayan. However,behind these high ranges an area calledthe “rain shadow” develops, where precip�itation is two or more times less. Theannual precipitation amount decreases to200�300 mm towards the south�easternpart of the ecoregion, especially on theleeward eastern slopes and in the inter�montane flat steppe hollows that areprotected by ranges. It is particularly dry inthe Chuisk steppe, where precipitationreaches only up to 100 mm per year.

The high mountain areas of the Altai�Sayan region have characteristics typicalof high mountain climates: temperatureinversions; a greater quantity of precipita�tion on the mountain peaks than incanyons; high recurrence of strong winds(10�15 m/s and more); and the develop�ment of mountain�valley circulation. Thewinds of this circulation have been termedfans, and refer to the winds that have arelatively high temperature and lowhumidity, and blow from the mountains tothe valleys. Winter fans reduce the effectsof harsh conditions, and in enclosedbasins in summer, fans can raise airtemperatures considerably. In severalplaces in Sayan, temperatures can reachas much as +40 OC, due to summer fans.

However, strong winter winds are alsocorrelated with the accumulation of snowon the leeward slopes of mountain ranges.It is interesting to note that, under theinfluence of these winds, the trees on theuppermost edge of the forest often havepeculiar “skirt” crowns.

Temperature inversions occur on the highmountains even in summer. In particular, inAugust this can result in the frequency offrosts in the valleys being greater than

the number occurring in the mountains. Inthe mountains, the annual figure of relativehumidity is opposite the behaviour that isobserved in the valleys. In the highmountain areas, the relative humidity insummer is greater than in winter, and thusthe formation of fog and mists is acommon occurrence.

Average total solar radiation increasesfrom the north to the south from 20 to 70 Wt/m2 in winter and from 180 to 250�260 Wt/m2 in summer. Typically, in the northern part, more than half of the sky iscovered with clouds, while in the southernpart, a cloudless sky is more typical. In theMongolian part of the region the numberof sunny days reaches up to 250 per year.

4Modern Climate of the Ecoregion4

Monthly precipitation in Eurasia and the Altai�Sayan region in January (left)and July (right) (average for 1961�1990)

Climate:

sharply continental

Minimum temperature:

–50 OС

Maximum temperature:

+38 OС

Snow cover:

120—250 days

5Climate Changes during the LastThousand Years and XX Century

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

5

Ten thousand years ago the climate of theAltai�Sayan region was approximately10 OC colder, though the following fivethousand years saw a gradual warming to 1�2 OC warmer than modern�daytemperatures. Steppe and forest�steppelandscapes dominated the middlemountain zone, and coniferous taigadominated the high mountain zone. Theforest borderline was 300�400 metershigher than at present. About 4�4.5thousand years ago the climate became alittle colder. And the silver fir thatdominated the topmost border of theforest in the warming period gave place tothe cedar.

In the medieval optimum (800�1300 yearsago) the highest border of the forest on theNorth�Chuisk range, for example, was 50�60 meters higher than it is today. Theaverage annual temperatures were higherthan the modern ones, though precipitationlevels were actually much closer to presentlevels. In the small glacial period (17th�18th centuries) the temperature was 2 OC colder than at present, and thetopmost forest border was 100�120 meterslower, as the glacial area was widening.However, its reduction then began, and bythe middle of the 20th century glaceriesconstituted 15�35% of former area.

On the whole, an analysis of paleoclimaticdata indicates that we live in an interglacialperiod. Natural cooling is taking place at arate of approximately 0.02 OC every 100years, which, by comparison, is 10�100times slower than the warming that resultsfrom anthropogenic causes. It is evidentthat the speed of natural changes is somuch lower that this nature impact canonly be considered significant on a scaleof several thousand years.

In the 20th century the average surface airtemperature on a global scale hasincreased by approximately 0.6 OC. At firstglance this change seems to be relativelyinsignificant, especially considering that

the uncertainty is 0.2 OC. However, thesechanges are very heterogeneous in timeand space and carry with them a number ofindirect local impacts, such as floods,droughts, rapid thaws, etc. Therefore ananalysis of regional changes is bothextremely important and very timely. Theamount of warming that has taken place inthe 20th century has proven to be greaterthan at any other time in the recent millen�nium. It was determined that the 1990swere the warmest years, and the year of1998 was marked as the warmest year ofthe entire millennium.

During the 20th century the length of theice cover period on rivers and lakes of themiddle and high latitudes in the NorthernHemisphere decreased by approximatelytwo weeks. In the second half of the 20thcentury the recurrence of extremely lowtemperatures decreased, while on thecontrary the extremely high temperatures

Climate Changes during the Last Thousand Years and XX Century

Global�mean surface air temperature asdeviations from the 1961–1990 average

Global�mean surface air temperature 100 million years ago and prognosis for 2100

Source: Climate Change Information Kit. UNEP/IUC,

Geneva, 1997.

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were observed more frequently. Starting inthe 1950s, in many regions of middle andhigh latitudes, warming has already led to alengthening of the frost�free period.Satellite data demonstrates that since theend of the 1960s the total snow coveredarea on the Earth has decreased by nearly10%. An overall retreat of mountain glaciershas also been registered, in particular, inthe Altai�Sayan mountain region.

In most regions of the high and middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere theamount of atmospheric precipitation hasincreased by 0.5�1% per decade. Also, inthe second half of the century heavyprecipitation occurred much morefrequently, causing considerable damage.

Though there may not have been anoverall tendency for heavy droughts orperiods of extreme humidity on a broadscale from 1900 to 1995, nevertheless insome regions of Asia and Africa in the1990s there was a significant increase inthe periodicity and intensity of droughts.

There were particular changes in theclimate that occurred in the Altai�Sayanregion. In general, they can be judged bythe average indices of the entire region.During the last century the change insurface air temperature for January in theecoregion amounted to approximately 3�4 OC. This means that the warming thatoccurred in winter was 6 times higher ascompared with the warming that occurredon a global basis, while summer tempera�tures increased insignificantly. On theother hand, the number of days with frostsin summer decreased, particularly in thesecond half of the century.

In the Mongolian portion of the ecoregionthe average air temperature increased inthe last 60 years by approximately 1.5 OC.During the same time the mountains ofwestern and northern Mongolia saw winterwarming that was much stronger than thewarming in the steppe and the GobiDesert. The maximum increase registeredfor winter temperature amounted to3.6 OC, while for summer months nowarming was registered at all.

Yet another noteworthy change is thedecrease in amplitude of day and night airtemperature in the ecoregion. To a certainextent this fact can be considered an indi�cator of the softening of the continentalcharacteristics of the climate.

The amount of total annual precipitationhas remained practically the same. Itshould be noted that the time series ofprecipitation contains some sort of distur�bance in uniformity, which can beexplained by changes in observationalinstruments and methods in Russia. InMongolia from the 1940s to the 1980s theannual precipitation decreased, though anopposite tendency was observed follow�ing that decrease, excepting the GobiDesert region. Changes in cloud coverand wind speed in winter and summerwere not registered. Winters withincreased air humidity dominated in therecent decades, and since the 1970s acertain increase in humidity has also beenobserved in summer.

On many rivers, changes in the start timesof ice drifting have been especially

obvious. In particular, on the Yenisei Riverand its tributaries (Abakan, Tuba) theaverage shift has been 1�2 days perdecade since the 1920s. This phenome�non is a direct consequence of warmingduring the spring months. However, thetime of the autumn freezing�over of riversalso demonstrates a similar tendency,representing a general shift toward theearlier freezing�over of rivers, and theearlier melting of the ice in spring. Thus,the period between freezing�over and icedrifting remains practically unchanged.Observations of glaciers also indicate anoverall reduction of their total area. Visualobservations indicate a strengthening inthermokarst processes.

6Climate Changes during the LastThousand Years and XX Century6

Average air temperature near theEarth’s surface by observations andassessment of changes in the 21stcentury according to maximum andminimum scenarios (IPCC,2001)

Deviations of January (up) and July(down) average air temperatures in theAltai�Sayan region from the 1961–1990average

Changes in the start time of ice drifting

Climate changes in the ecoregion

in XX century:

•winter warming was

six times higher than

average global warming

•strong floods and

change in dates of ice

•intense glacial melt

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7Climate Change Prognosis

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

7

As clearly seen from the above data, theclimate has, undeniably, been changing.However, in order to configure a progno�sis, it is first necessary to determine thereasons for the changes, which hasproven to be a very difficult task that is farfrom being solved. The best global prog�nostic and mathematical models take intoaccount the growth in the concentration ofcarbon dioxide and other greenhousegases caused by the burning of fossil fuelsand other industrial activities. The changein content of aerosol particles in theatmosphere and a number of otherimpacts have also been taken into consid�eration. These models indicate a signifi�cant influence of anthropogenic activity onthe temperature trends both on the Earth’s surface and in the troposphere,especially during the four last decades.This influence is also combined with anumber of other fundamentally importantimpacts. One of which is the intrinsicinstability of the climate system itself. It isunderstood that the ocean, upon interac�tion with the atmosphere, could causelong�term fluctuations in the climatesystem. And thus, on a temporal scale ofdecades, such fluctuations may well takeplace without any external influence.

There may also exist other natural reasonsfor such changes as well, such as the fluc�tuations in solar radiation intensity orvolcanic eruptions.

Model runs have shown that modernmodels in general are capable of describ�ing the climate structure and its changesduring the 20th century. In this, a smallamount of warming was determined to becaused by the change of atmospherictransparency, which is a natural externalfactor, in the first half of the century. Whilethe rapid warming which is being observednowadays, is mainly connected with anincrease in the concentration of carbondioxide and other greenhouse gases in theatmosphere.

A method of drawing up scenarios forgreenhouse gas emissions and their accu�mulation in the atmosphere is used forassessment of future climatic changes.Several dozens of scenarios have beencomposed using different variables in population growth and indus�trial development. Calculations of theexpected changes in air temperature inthe 21st century are then made for eachscenario. Such assessments reveal thatthe global temperature near the surface ofthe Earth will likely increase by as much as1.5�5.8 OC.

Such warming has had no precedent in thepast ten thousand years. It is necessary toremember that assessments of changescannot be considered exact prognoses,as it is unknown which of the scenarios ofgreenhouse gas emissions will reallyoccur. This will be determined byhuman activity. However it is most likelythat something in between the maximumand minimum prognostications will takeplace.

Our task is to try to assess how thesechanges may influence the climate of theAltai�Sayan region. It should be mentioned that regional assessments ofexpected climate changes are far less

Climate Change Prognosis

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defined than the world average. Accordingto one of the best models which wasdeveloped at the Hadly Centre for ClimateAnalysis (UK), rather detailed assess�ments for an average likely scenario ofgreenhouse gas emissions into the atmos�phere were made.

According to calculations, within the next50 years the January temperature in mostparts of the Altai�Sayan region willincrease by 2�3 OC, though warming mayeven be much more pronounced in thewestern parts. At the western part of WestSayan the temperature increase will be asmuch as 3�4 OC, moreover around theBelukha Mount and on the western spursof the Altai Range the temperature willlikely increase by 4�5 OC. According to theHadly model, the Uvs Nuur Lake regionmay be a separate area of greater winterwarming (by 3�4 OC), though it requiresmore specific research. In the Mongolianpart of the ecoregion the increase inaverage annual temperature may consti�tute as much as 1.8�2.8 OC in just the firstquarter of the 21st century. It is, however,

possible that winter temperatures willincrease by 3 OC, while summer tempera�tures, on the contrary, will change verylittle. In any case, the warming that isexpected in this ecoregion is much largerthan what is forecasted for the neighbour�ing northern, eastern and southernregions.

On the whole, the second quarter of thecentury may see warming that is twice asfast as the warming in the first quarter. Atthe same time, increased precipitation by20�40% is also very possible, especiallyduring winters in the western part of theregion. However, according to someglobal models this increase will also bereplaced by a corresponding decrease inanother part of the territory.

All prognoses predict an intense glacialmelt and subsequent retreat up into themountains. Within the next 50 years it ispredicted that the total area covered byglaciers in the temperate latitudes of theAsian continent will decrease by 25%. It is not yet clear how intensive the melting in the Altai�Sayan ecoregion will be, but all the data indicate that the process willbe very rapid and that the high mountainnature zone may, for example, shrink inhalf. Considerable melting of thepermafrost layer is also expected, and insome remote areas it may even disappearcompletely. However, there are still no reli�able numeric assessments for thesepredictions.

It should be once more emphasised thatthe prognoses given above are onlyaverage scenarios. Moreover, these are

only considered future indicators ratherthan prognoses. Of course, they will befurther specified and worked out ingreater detail as our knowledge accumu�lates and more accurate climate “signals”appear. However, there are some regionalimpacts that can be singled out even nowand that should be watched especiallyclosely. These impacts are those that willbe key in anticipating the imminent,powerful and unfavourable climatechanges.

How will the winter�spring “breaks” of theAsian anticyclone from the south�west andwest act? Will their power and frequencygrow? Will more severe snowfalls in thewestern part of the ecoregion beobserved?

How frequently will sudden thaws in Apriland May be observed? Will they cover onlythe western part of the region or spreadover the central part as well? Will abruptfloods (for example, such as the floods in Tyva in 2001) be registered morefrequently?

With what speed will permafrost “retreat”from northern Mongolia and EasternSayan?

8Climate Change Prognosis8

Assessment of expected changes in air temperature, OC (left) andprecipitation, mm/day (right) in July (down) and January (up) by 2050 in comparison with the 1961�1990 period

Climate change prognosis:

very negative

Main effects:

•strong snowfalls

and floods

•drought and

considerable expansion

of Gobi Desert

•sharp decrease

in glaciers area

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9Further Elaborate on Climate Change Prognoses

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

9

It is clear that scientists and politiciansnow face a plethora of complicated prob�lems.Therefore, the World MeteorologicalOrganisation and the UN EnvironmentProgram (UNEP) established theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) in 1988. Thousands ofscientists from all over the world partici�pate in its efforts. Three Work Groups werecreated, and every five years each groupprepares a report of about 1,000 pages.The first Group deals with the identificationof climate changes and their prognoses.The second Group assesses current andpotential impacts of those changes onecosystems. And the third Group consid�ers the impact on socio�economic systems and assesses possible ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Very recently in 2001 the IPCC publishedthe Third Assessment Report, consistingof three large volumes. Naturally, all thesematerials were used in the preparation ofthe given brochure. However, even theunited efforts of scientists world�wide stilldo not make it easy to get answers toproblems in specific regions, such as theregion currently in question.

Along with the activity of the IPCC, deeperand more specific research is also beingconducted, directed towards a prognosisof the impact of climate change on certainecosystems. Thus, in September 2000 theWWF published the report on the impact ofglobal warming on terrestrial ecosystems“Global Warming and TerrestrialBiodiversity Decline”. As in the IPCCreports, it includes model calculations ofthe status of the ecosystem at CO2

concentration in the atmosphere 2 timesmore than level of 1960�1990. However,the report also gives a more detailedanalysis of the consequences of animaland plant migration. In particular, thereport indicates that the “required speedof migration” may be higher than is physi�cally possible for species, and that migra�tory routes can meet both natural andanthropogenic barriers.

These effects are very acute for the Altai�Sayan ecoregion. This remote mountaincountry is separated from the sub�arcticregions by hundreds of kilometres of taiga, which will prove impossible for theinhabitants of the mountain ecosystems topass over. Research has shown that inorder to save themselves these specieswould need a migration, which wouldforce them into arid, high and rocky mountain landscapes and lead to habitatfragmentation. In particular, the 3 OCwarming that was predicted by the IPCCmay lead to a loss of 10�60% of mammalspecies in boreal mountain ecosystemslike the Altai�Sayan.

Hence it is not surprising that the ecore�gion has been identified as a high riskzone. The prognosis for the long�termperspective is very unfavourable. Up to acertain extent the adaptive abilities of theecosystems may safely sustain them, butsudden irreversible changes may also takeplace. This is a very serious warning thatshould be heeded and considered withutmost responsibility.

Further Elaborate on Climate Change Prognoses

Black marking depicts places where morethan 90% of the models predict a change in ecosystem type

Red – 50% of prognosis for dramatic changes

Pink – changes are unlikely to take place

Prognostic calculations according to 14 models for 2050�2100

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10Flora and Fauna of the Ecoregion10

Mountain steppe, mountain taiga and highmountain zones represent the Altai andthe majority of mountain massifs of thenorthern part of the region. Cereals domi�nate the vegetation cover of the steppefoothills. Larch forests up to a height of2,000�2,200 meters are the most typical

of the mountain taiga zone. More humidregions are represented mainly by darkconiferous taiga consisting of cedar, silverfir and fir trees. In many places due tolong�term exploitation, massifs of secondbirch�aspen forests replaced dark conifer�ous forests.

Low bushes and sub�alpine meadowsdominate in the lower part of mountain

zone, while higher in the mountains theyare replaced by magnificent alpinemeadows with an abundance of grassspecies with large and bright flowers. Inthe eastern area of the region alpine vege�tation in the high mountain belt is replacedby mountain tundra, in particular, bushtundra and moss�lichen ecosystems.

Patches of vegetation are typical of theKuznetsk Alatau, North�West part of theregion, and such patchiness is thecombined result of impacts such as slopelayout, snow cover thickness, etc. Suchspecies as linden, asarum and woodruff,which are typical of broad�leaf forests ofthe Russian Plain and the Far East but nottypical of Siberian taiga, are found amongthe plants of the unique dark taiga of theKuznetsk Alatau. This is a peculiar taigaformation with a predominance of silver firand aspen, with underbrush consisting ofthe bird cherry tree, Siberian rowan treeand snowball�tree, and high grasses up to2.5 meters. Much precipitation and thicksnow cover also create favourable condi�tions for the development of marshes.

Intermontane depressions are repre�sented by steppes and meadows, and inthe south by semi�deserts. In the northern

Flora and Fauna of the Ecoregion

Biodiversity:

very high and unique

for temperate

latitudes:

•mammals � over 60

species

•birds� about 300

species

•plants � more 200

rare species

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along the southern slopes of the Tannu�Ola Range (South Tyva) forests generallycan be absent in natural zone structure atall. And there grassy meadows and semi�deserts at a height of 2,100–2,300 metersare directly contiguous with steppes.

The fauna of the region is extremelydiverse and includes a broad spectrum of communities from desert to mountaintundra types. In general, the region islocated at the intersection of the CentralAsian and Siberian faunal provinces. Thefoothill steppe in the northern part of theregion differs little from the steppes ofWestern Siberia and Kazakhstan. Amongthe dominant animals are small rodentssuch as ground squirrels, hamsters andfield voles. Hares and badgers are alsoencountered. Typical taiga inhabitants,such as the brown bear, wolverine, lynx,sable, and chipmunk are widelyrepresented in the mountain forests.There are also typical Eastern Siberianspecies such as musk deer, Siberian maraldeer, and big forest mouse. Almost 300bird species have been observed in thisregion, the most common of which are thewood grouse, hazel grouse, black cock,hawk owl, Tengmalm owl, three�toedwoodpecker, crossbill, and thrush.

In the southern, Mongolian part of theecoregion, steppe and semi�desert

species dominate, such as dzeren,Mongolian marmot, and predatory birds.Drought�resistant and salt�resistant plantssuch as onions and absinthes representsteppe and desert�steppe communities ofthe Basin of Great Lakes. Small rodentsare also abundant in this area, such asjerboas and chipmunks. However, dzerenis rare here and is instead replaced by goiter gazelle,kulan, and saiga antelope.

In a very peculiar Uvs Nuur Depression,both the Central Asian and Siberianspecies can be observed. For example,sable, squirrel and elk inhabit the moun�tain taiga. Dzeren antelope, tolai hare, andthe long�eared hedgehog inhabit thesteppe zone representing the species ofthe Mongolian semi�deserts. The rivers ofthe depression are inhabited by CentralAsian fish species such as osman andthick�lipped mullet.

Mountain goat, argali mountain sheep andthe snow leopard (irbis) represent thealpine fauna. The two latter species can beconsidered special symbols of theecoregion, as the World Community hasregarded them as the most valuablespecies for global biodiversityconservation.

part of the region most of them are plowedand serve agricultural purposes, while inthe south they are mainly used aspastures. Sagebrush�grass plant commu�nities, which are common to the steppes,also dominate here. The high mountainbelt is broadly represented with alpinesteppes and uncultivated plots, and it ishere that the small sedge, kobresia, whichserves as rich “fat�providing” summerfodder for the ungulates, is the dominantplant. The mountain taiga belt consists oflarch and cedar�larch taiga, which is thesource of timber for all of Mongolia.

It should be noted that in dry central andsouthern parts of the ecoregion, in theGobi Altai, in the south�eastern Altai and

11Flora and Fauna of the Ecoregion

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

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12Ecosystem Response to Climate Changes12

Observations have indicated obviouscorrelation between the climate changesand dates of phenological events inplants, such as blossoming, unfolding ofthe first leaves, leaf shedding, etc., thoughspecific responses vary among species.Thus the dates of blossoming of the bird�cherry tree coincide with temperaturealterations recorded in the Russian part ofthe region, such as slight cold in 1915�1925 and 1945�1960, and substantialwarming from the mid�1960s untilpresent.

There are also regional differences thathave been observed. For example, in Altaiand in the north�western part of theecoregion, the blossoming time of thebird�cherry tree shifted ahead about one

day every ten years, though in theMinusinsk area no shift was detected atall. On the other hand, there are no clearchange in dates of meteorological events,which are close to the date of bird�cherrytree blossoming (the last observation ofthe negative air temperature andsustainable transfer of daily temperatureover the 10 OC).

It is important to note that there has beena shift in the phenological events of plantsin spring, and that herbaceous (grass)species react more sensitively to climatechanges.

The arrival dates of summer events eitherdid not change at all, or began to occureven later. Also noticed was a slighttendency for autumn events, such as the

end of the leaf falldate for birch trees, toshift to a later time of year.

Dendrochronological analysis based ontree�ring patterns established over longperiods of time, has been a traditionalmethod for determining the impact ofclimate factors on forests. Research hasshown that, starting in the mid�1950s andespecially since the end of the 1970s, anincrease in annual tree�ring increment and the shifting of forest vegetationupwards were observed in the Altai�Sayan. A large number of young trees andundergrowth creeping up the slopes canbe observed.

An improvement in climate conditions forforests can also be judged indirectly by

Ecosystem Response to Climate Changes

Dates of blossoming time of the bird�cherry tree in different places

Dates of blossoming time of the differentplants in Gorno�Altaisk area

Leaf fall date for birch trees Dates of bird migration and first cuckooing in neighbourhood of theSayano�Shushensky Nature Reserve

Impact on ecosystems:

registered and

growing

Shift in dates:

•plant vegetation

•bird and ungulate

migrations

changes in the growth of the Siberiansilver fir, as this tree is very particular in itsrequirements for humidity and warmth.One hundred and fifty�year�old silver firswere found at the topmost edge of theforest, and were found to have a peculiarknee�shaped bend at a particular height.The presence of this bend indicates thatthe growing conditions for these treeschanged dramatically from good, to bad,and back to favourable again. In fact 100�200 years ago the highest border of the

An analysis of bird migration in theBarguzin Nature Reserve showed that,though about 40% of the species startedto arrive in spring four or more days earlier,another 20�25% of species demonstrateda reverse effect. Although the reserve isnot part of the ecoregion, the same birdspecies that inhabit the reserve alsoinhabit the Altai�Sayan region. In autumnthe number of species with earlier andlater migration periods is divided intoapproximately equal parts. Earlier arrivalsand later departures were registered for 12 species, while the period between the first arrival and the departure for another 5 speciesdecreased. Synanthropic species (thoseclosely connected with man), and specieswhich actively settle within the boundariesof the region, are the main representativesof the first group. The increase of their stayis most likely connected both with climatechanges and with their increase innumber, which prolongs the length of theirflight migration period. On the contrary,the changes in the second group ofspecies can be connected both withclimate factors and with their decrease innumber.

Sometimes expansion to the north issimultaneously noted in widely separatedterritories for different populations orsubspecies of one species. For example,the paddy�field warbler is presentlyexpanding its habitat in the latitude zonefrom the north�western part of Russia tothe Far East. This observation clearlyindicates the presence of an impactcommon to the entire nature zone. Thecause is, presumably, a climatic one.

Among the birds, whose habitats change,there are no information about mountain

birds. However, the reasons for this remainunclear. This, first of all, is most likely dueto the fact that mountain areas are studiedless often. In connection with this, the“discovery” of several new speciespenetrating from the west to the WesternSayan, such as the Alpine (yellow billed)chough and others, probably reflectsmore a rise in deeper ornithologicalresearch in the area rather than actualchanges in species expansion.

A decrease in precipitation also plays animportant role for the steppe zonespecies. For example, the huge steppefires in the Trans�Baikal Lake area in 1995�1997 coincided with an activepenetration of the Japanese quail and theupland buzzard into the Front�Baikal Lakearea. Before this, the appearance ofJapanese quail was registered in theIrkutsk Region at the end of the 1970s,while it appeared at the delta of theSelenga River in the 1950s and at thebeginning of the 1980s. And it wasspecifically during these periods inNorthern Mongolia when the precipitationamount was decreasing and summertemperatures were increasing.

Thus, it is apparent that there exists adefinite phenological connection betweenthe behaviour of birds and naturalconditions, though specifics will demandthorough research. However, it still provesextremely difficult to distinguish betweenexternal and internal population factorswhen determining expansion changes,species number, and the populationstructure. The reason is clear: profoundresearch that fundamentally examinesexternal factors is available only for a verysmall number of species, and there is afew long�term research in this area.

forest in the Western Sayan was 100�150meters higher than it is at present. Duringthat time it lowered, but is currently onceagain rising. Thus only after the “creepingup” of the forest growth in the region by atleast 100�150 meters can it be consideredprincipally “new.”

The observed date changes of birdmigration in spring are not alwaysunidirectional. For example, wild duckmigration and first cuckooing in theSayano�Shushensky Nature Reservebegan to occur much earlier (by 13�16days), while at the same time starlingarrival over the entire region was delayedby several days. It should be noted that asimilar tendency is typical of the starlingarrival on the eastern european plain.

13Ecosystem Response to Climate Changes

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

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14Altai Mountain Sheep: Argal14

Altai Mountain Sheep, or Argali (Ovisammon ammon), can undoubtedly bedistinguished as an animal unique from allother wild sheep species. It is one of thelargest and most beautiful mountainsheep. The weight of an adult male Argalican reach up to 200 kilograms. They havemassive horns, which when welldeveloped can weigh up to 27 kilograms.Two subspecies of the Argali have beenidentified: the western Altai, which islarger and more numerous, and the Gobisubspecies, to which less study has beendevoted.

Argali can feed on rough high mountainvegetation that has low nutritional value.The animal is extremely adapted to lowtemperatures, but is very sensitive to hightemperatures. Thus temperatures of +23�24 OС have a negative impact on theanimal’s health, particularly on largemales. It is likely this important biologicalpeculiarity of the species that is the reasonfor its exclusive habitation of highmountain areas.

Argali appendages are thin and slender,giving the animal the ability to run atspeeds of up to 60 km/h, which is 15 km/hhigher than the speed of chasing wolves.

This is why the habitat of the sheep is mostoften located in open areas with relativelyflat relief. The climate of the ecoregion isalso ideal for the animals: the mountainranges shade the middle and the southernparts of the region, there is littleprecipitation in winter, and the thickness ofsnow cover rarely exceeds 10 cm.

The majority of the Argali populationinhabits Mongolia, where the totalprotected area within its habitatconstitutes 1.1 million hectares (as of theyear 2000). According to the UN Food andAgriculture Organisation (FAO), thenumber of sheep in 1976 was between 10�12 thousand on the territory stretchingfrom the western border of the country tothe one hundredth meridian. However,according to the estimation of theMongolian Association of Hunters, therewere about 40 thousand individuals, andaccording to other estimates – about 52thousand in the middle of the 1970s. Thelatest available estimate is about 18�20thousand animals as of 1986. Yet, nowunder the initiative of the Mongoliangovernment and the support of WWF it hasbeen planned to undertake a count ofArgali sheep to finally obtain exact data.

In Mongolia the Argali sheep population“shifts” from south to north, which is partlya result of the climate change, as the last60 years has seen an increase in wintertemperatures of about 3.6 OС.

In Russia the number of Argali is estimatedas 600�650 mainly on the Sailugem Ridgealong boarder of Altai and Mongolia (120�300) and the Chikhachov Ridge (from theMongolian border to the Altai NatureReserve along Altai�Tyva boarder) – 150�300. Sheep migrations of about 100�200animals per year are observed crossingthe Russian border, mainly in the south�western Tyva. In summer the Argalihabitats are used for livestock pastures,and the wild animals are forced to migrate.

Altai Mountain Sheep: Argali

Altai Mountain Sheep,Argali (Ovis ammon

ammon)

Status:

Appendix I CITES

(endangered species)

Population:

Russia � about 600

Mongolia � 10000?(count required)

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In the Kazakhstan part of the Altai, thenumber of Argali does not exceed 100individuals, though there are probablyseveral hundred more sheep in theChinese territory.

The number of Argali has, unfortunately,decreased in recent years. Moreover,separation into distinct groups has been aclear sign of fragmentation of thepopulation. This is connected both withillegal hunting and competition with

livestock, both of which increased in the1990s as the result of economicdifficulties and the privatisation oflivestock. Extremely severe winters withparticularly heavy snowfall also present aserious danger for the sheep. Forexample, about 160 years ago after thecatastrophically snowy winters, Argalidisappeared from the vast territory of theOrhon Valley of the central�east part of theecoregion. In the last two years, less

severe yet still deleterious conditions wereobserved in Mongolia, with severe wintersand dry summers, which led to the deathof a large number of sheep.

Thus, under the initiative of the WWF, astrategy for the conservation of Argalisheep was recently prepared. The stabili�sation of population can be expected inthe Russian part of the ecoregion only if aseries of restoration activities are under�taken, and a hunting ban achieves strictcompliance. Unfortunately, it is possiblyonly on relatively small territories alongAltai boarder with Mongolia and China: theranges surrounding the Chuisk steppe,the north of the Chikhachev Ridge and thesouth of the Ukok Plateau. An increase inArgali habitat, however, is rather doubtfuldue to the forthcoming climate changes,with which come a larger probability ofheavy snowfalls and winter thaws, and agradual widening of the forest zone.

Even larger changes are possible inMongolia, which provides the primary partof the habitat. However, it is too early tomake an exact prognosis for this area. Andthe highest of priorities should be findingsolutions to the most acute of problems,which are overgrazing and illegal hunting.

15Altai Mountain Sheep: Argal

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

15

Threats:

competition with

livestock; poaching;snowy winters

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16Snow Leopard: Irbis16

The Snow Leopard, or Irbis (Uncia uncia),is the only large wildcat in the world thatlives in high mountain regions. Occupyingthe highest trophic level in the highmountain ecosystem, Irbis represents themost significant species in the entireecoregion. However, at the same time, thesnow leopard is also one of the rarest andmost vulnerable species of the Altai�Sayanmountainous country. Irbis is notparticularly sensitive to temperaturechanges, but heavy disturbance and thedegradation of the mountain ecosystemhave made the survival of this rare catpractically impossible. And it is because ofthis that conservation of the species isinseparably connected to conservation ofthe entire high mountain zone. Thespecies is listed in Appendix I of CITES(Convention on International Trade inEndangered Species of Flora and Fauna),and in the endangered species categoryof the Red List for the International Unionfor Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

Irbis inhabits the mountain zone at aheight of 2�4 thousand meters, though in afew particular areas, such as the Gobi Altaiand the eastern part of the WesternSayan, it can descend lower into the forest

zone in winter. To the south, in particular, inKazakhstan, it can go as high as 5thousand meters. Although Irbis is calledthe snow leopard, it tries to avoid deepsnow. Winters with heavy snowfall can bedangerous for the species, as indicated byan increased death rate. In particular, it is the heavy snow cover that prevents thecats from spreading into the western partof the Katun Ridge of the South Altai.

In Russia, the northern part of the Irbishabitat is exposed most of all to extremeexternal impacts. The total territory ofpotential habitat for the snow leopardconstitutes approximately 60 thousandsquare kilometres. Two main habitatcentres – the western and the eastern –have been determined. The western oneincludes West Tyva, south of Khakassiaand two Altai groups (Shapshal and Argut,which is the largest part of the population).The East Sayan (Kitoi, Tunkin, andSengilen) populations constitute theeastern habitat center. The small groupsof Irbis in West Sayan and West Tannu�Ola(South�West Tyva) occupy an inter�mediate but very important position, asthey are the ecological “corridors,”sustaining the integrity of the entire

population. Including even smallpopulations, the total number of Irbis inRussia is estimated to be between 150�200 cats. Unfortunately, it is the smallhabitat centres that have a tendencytoward extinction.

In Mongolia, data on the total number ofsnow leopards varies from severalhundred to as many as 4,000. It is proba�ble that the most reliable assessmentswere done by Schaller in 1994, whichstated that there are about one thousandcats on a territory comprising 90 thousandsquare kilometres, equalling 1.1 anymalper 100 square kilometres. Such a lowdensity is typical of the species, but itsfurther decline and subsequent fragmen�

Snow Leopard: Irbis

Snow Leopard, Irbis(Uncia uncia)

Status:

Appendix I CITES

(endangered species)

Population:

Russia � 150�200

Mongolia � about 1000

(count required)

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tation of the population not only present agrave genetic danger, but may also lead tothe eventual extinction of the species.

Though the network of protected areas iswell developed in the Altai�Sayanecoregion, only a small portion of the Irbishabitat is covered. In Russia only 6�7% ofpotential Irbis habitat is located on theterritory of nature reserves, and in Altaiaround 11%. In reality, the largest and themost valuable snow leopard populations

are located outside the borders of theprotected areas. The one exception to thisis the Sayano�Shushensky NatureReserve, which includes a significant partof the Irbis population of West Sayan.

The situation is the same in Mongolia,where the 19 protected areas cover nomore than 20% of the snow leopardhabitat. The worsening of the social andeconomic situation in the 1990s forcedmany people in Russia and Mongolia touse any possible means of sustaining andsupporting themselves. And thus, thepoaching of Irbis and ungulates, its mainsustenance, increased. This, in turn,forced the wildcats to attack livestockgrazing in the mountains, of courseresulting in conflict with humans, whichoften ended in the death of this rarespecies. In Mongolia the problem is evenmore aggravated by the illegal export ofleopard bones to China, where they areused in traditional medicine.

The long�term preservation of a healthyand sustainable population of Irbis issimply not possible without clearly definedgoals and priorities for ecological andeconomic policy of the entire ecoregion. Aconservation strategy for the Irbis hasbeen developed with the help of WWFsupport expeditions and research work. Inthe Altai republic, a separate cluster of thebiosphere Katunsky Reserve is required,which will provide for protection of theArgut population of Irbis. In the Republic ofTyva, the organisation of additionalclusters of the state Uvs Nuur DepressionNature Reserve (Big Mongun�Taiga, UvsNuur, Oruku�Shynaa, and Kara�Khol) is inprogress to protect both Irbis and Argali.

However, in WWF’s development of thisIrbis conservation strategy, the direct

impact of climate changes was notconsidered. And thus, this factor shouldmost definitely be taken into accountwhen the strategy is reworked andimproved. If in the next few years theleopards were forced to endure severalsnowfall severe winters in a row, thesituation could turn especially critical andmay even result in the undermining of thepopulation. Another potential threat is theepizootic (or broad spread of diseases) ofthe Siberian goat, which is the main feedbase for the Irbis. The future melting ofmountain glaciers could potentiallyincrease Irbis habitat, however thispossibility is negated due to the effects offorest expansion in the high mountains,which will, on the contrary, considerablyreduce Irbis habitat.

Currently Irbis poaching in Russia resultsin the loss of 15�20 per year, while inMongolia it is approximately 100 animalsper year. The impact of poaching on theleopard population is much more criticalthan the impact suffered from climatechange, and it follows that the solving ofthis problem should take top priority. Therestoration and stabilisation of the snowleopard population can only be expected if anti�poaching is strictly enforced.

Habitat expansion, unfortunately, isespecially unlikely due to the expansion offorests and an increase in winterprecipitation. Thus special attentionshould be paid particularly to highmountain populations on snowless slopes.The conservation of these areas is crucialto the salvation of the species under futureincreasing climate changes.

17Snow Leopard: Irbis

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

17

Threats:

poaching, snowy winters;human activity

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18Changes Expected in the Nature of the Ecoregion18

In a short�term perspective, the mostunfavourable events of the next 15�20years will be caused by the significantwarming of spring and winter months. As aresult, the frequency of winters with heavysnow and heavy floods similar to thosethat occurred in 2001 could become evengreater. The possibility of winter thaws isalso likely to increase, which are not yettypical of the region, and thus maybecome a new critically important factor inthe survival of the animals.

The northern part of the region will likelysee more unfavourable winter conditionsfor ungulates and predatory mammals,and force upon them large seasonalmigrations. A few years of particularlyheavy snowfalls may then be followed bythe massive death of animals, includingArgali and Irbis. The thaws will likely thensee the compression of snow cover, andthe formation of especially dense layerswhich may lead to the death of birds ofprey, and of small mammals that winterunder snow.

Winter conditions in the south, especiallyin the south�eastern part of the region,have become a bit less harsh for themammals of the area. However, due to theintensification of the summer dry period,the ungulates will be forced to spend moretime on high mountain pastures, thusincreasing competition with cattle.

The reduction of certain nature zones andhabitat fragmentation into “islands” willhave an increasing effect, as viewed with along�term perspective. The territory of thehigh mountain ecosystems will decreaseconsiderably. This is inevitable becausethe movement of the forests up theslopes, while formation of a soil cover onrocky surfaces of glaciers melt demands a longer period of time than the moving offorests towards a “prepared” area.Potentially, within 30�50 years the upperedge of the forest could rise significantly(from 15 to 150 m, according to various

assessments and in different places). Thelength of the vegetation period for mostplants will also increase by 1�2 weeks,particularly in the spring months.

However, the most serious deleteriouseffects from the decrease of natural zonearea are expected in Mongolia.Assessments of to the Holdridge Life Zone Classification Model indicate aconsiderable shift of deserts towards thenorth. Thus, by the middle of the 21stcentury the territory of steppes couldpotentially decrease by 7% in the area ofthe Great Lakes Basin and its surroundingterritories, while total desert area, on thecontrary, could increase by 13%. On thewhole, the total area of tundra and forestecosystems in the Mongolian part of theecoregion is likely to decrease by 4�14%.

The total exhaustion of migrationpossibilities in the mountain ecosystems isvery possible within the next coupledecades. Unfortunately, in all cases, thesaving of the most valuable species, forexample the Irbis and Argali, will demandlarge�scale and costly efforts, such as amore thorough account and greaterprotection of the animals. It will alsorequire the capturing and relocating ofanimals found in enclosed areas wheretheir survival has become impossible. Itwill be necessary to have nature reserves,or at least long�term “shelters,” coveringall high mountain areas or at least areaswith the smallest frequency of heavysnowfalls.

At the same time it is apparent that alongwith climate changes, direct anthro�pogenic factors will inflict an even moresignificant impact on the ecosystems.Depending on specific choices maderegarding economic development in theregion, anthropogenic factors can be evenmore influential than the effects of climatechanges.

Changes Expected in the Nature of the Ecoregion

Considerable expansion of deserts in the south part of the region

Current state of the natural zones

Results of calculations by the Holdridge LifeZone Classification Model for Mongolian territory for 2040

Black – High mountains and taiga, blue – Forest�steppe, green – Steppe, yellow – Desert�steppe, red – Desert

•Heavy snowfalls

floods and thaws

undermining ecosystems

•Expansion of deserts

in the south

•shrinking of high

mountain natural zone

19Socio�economic Problems and Life of Indigenous People

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

19

Most of the territory of the Altai�Sayanecoregion is included in the number ofleast�economically developed regions ofRussia and Mongolia. Nevertheless,biodiversity conservation in the conditionsof the changing climate depends both on the chosen path of economicdevelopment, and to no less extent, theability of the indigenous people to upholda traditional way of life. The poverty of thelocal people is a serious socio�economicproblem that is inflicting a negative impacton the natural resources and biodiversity.

The ancient history of the region is sounique that many historians andarchaeologists call it “the cradle ofcivilisation.” In the course of manythousands of years, the cultures ofancient Turks, Ugro�Finns, Chinese, andIranian peoples gathered here and“merged” together. The region can beconsidered multinational, as Russians,Mongolians, Chinese, Kazakhs, Uigurs,Altainians, Tyvinians, Buryats, Shors,Khakasians, Soyots and othernationalities occupy its lands. Theyspeak a myriad of different languagesfrom the Slavic, Mongolian, Turk andAltai language groups. A combination of

both modern and ancient attitudes, aswell as closeness to nature is common toall of the groups.

At present, there is a tendency for therevival of old traditions of pagan customsand shamanism. National holidays, tradi�tional occupations and the unique musicalart of throat singing are undergoing arebirth. The culture of the indigenouspeople is based on the traditions of cattle�graising tribes with a nomadic lifestyle.Mutton, horseflesh, milk and sour milkproducts are the basis of the nationalcuisine. Part of the population still lives inchums, yurtas and other traditionalconstructs.

Many nationalities even until now havekept up a traditional style of life and use ofnatural resources. For example, in the dryareas of Tyva, shepherds are returningmore and more often to the traditionalnomadic way of life. They are undertakingfour seasonal migrations just as theirancestors did, in order to avoid pasturedesolation by the overgrasing of cattle.This method has proven to be aneffectively sustainable use of pastureresources.

Large number of people of the ecoregionstill earn a sufficient part of means forliving and support their families byhunting. This fact was revealed to thegreatest extent in the last decade, whenthe economic recession resulted in adecrease in the number of jobs in theindustrial sector, transportation, and theservice sphere, especially in distant areas.

The development of a market economyinflicted a serious crisis on collective andsoviet farms, and has resulted in a consid�erable decrease in the number of livestockon collective farms. On the other hand,both in Russia and in Mongolia the numberof private cattle�graising farms saw a sudden increase, which led to anincreased burden on surrounding pasturesand thus to a feed shortage for livestock.

Socio�economic Problems and Life of Indigenous People

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In the Mongolian part of the ecoregionthe majority of the population works inthe cattle breeding, as their economicactivity is based almost strictly onpasture and livestock. Because of this,overgrasing has become one of the mostserious problems in the conservation.Especially in the last decade followingthe legalisation of livestock privatisation,the number of livestock has increasedconsiderably. Other factors that havecontributed to the overgrasing problemand the exhausting of pastures wereprovoked by the economic crisis whichresulted in widespread unemployment.Moreover, this problem in WesternMongolia is also connected with achange in species composition, and theincrease in number of Kashmir goats.

So what can be said of the expectedchange in light of the approaching climateproblems? At present the three mostsignificant concerns are those factors thatwill affect: 1) the infrastructure oftransportation and habitation, 2)opportunities for hunting and 3) thelivestock�overgrasing problem.

The first impact is, of course, the ever�increasing likelihood of catastrophicflooding in the spring. The unpredictableand strong intrusion of warm air masses,particularly in the northern and centralparts of the ecoregion, will lead to asudden uplift of water, which results in theflooding of settlements, and thedestruction of bridges and roads. Thesethreats must be taken into account in theconstruction or reconstruction ofbuildings, and detailed and practicallytested emergency plans must beprepared. It is also highly likely that

sudden and unpredictable avalanches,rock falls and permafrost melting in someareas will only add to the floodingproblem.

The increasing frequency of severesnowfall winters and sudden spring�winterthaws, which are most likely in the westernand northern parts of the ecoregion, willcreate adverse conditions for ungulates,birds of prey, small mammals, and evenfor the snow leopard. So in order to further protect threatened populations,the introduction of additional huntingrestrictions for certain years, and stricteranti�poaching regulations is necessary.

Though the major climate changes areexpected in the winter�spring season, inthe Mongolian part of the ecoregion anextension of the summer dry period is alsoa likely possibility, which will potentiallycause an adverse effect on livestockgrazing. However, at the same time, thegrazing conditions in other seasons mayeven improve. These factors will pose animportant question about the stricterregulation of the use of mountain pasturesin summer months.

The overall economic well being of thepopulation in the ecoregion depends to agreat extent on local natural resources.Developments in transportation andexternal economic influences are makingonce isolated areas now accessible forresource exploitation. Roads that wereonce built for gold mining have recentlyopened the northern parts of theecoregion to settlers and loggers. Thereare also plans to construct a direct roadfrom Russia to China across the protectedareas of the mountain Altai and others.

The question then arises, “where and howcan the economic development of theecoregion be directed sustainable, so asto minimise detriment to the environmentor the traditional way of life of theindigenous people, while still consideringclimate changes to a proper extent?”

Even the immediate aspects of theeconomic development of the region arenot yet clear, however, in general thereexist two tendencies. The first oneincludes the development of “newterritories” in the style of the 1930�1970s,which would mean the maximumexploitation of mineral resources, i.e. goldmining, etc. Such choices obviouslysubscribe to the attitude “first it is

20Socio�economic Problems and Life of Indigenous People20

Bridge on the road Mondy�Orlik, destroyedby the the flood. Buryatia, July 2001

Population: about 1.5

million

Indigenous people:

over 20 ethnic

groups

Religies:

Buddhism,Christianity, Islam,and shamanism

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necessary to achieve economic well�being, and only afterwards can we worryabout nature conservation.”

As world experience has clearly indicated,this path will by all means lead to the rapid“improvement” of statistical data of theregional economy (e.g. Gross IndustrialProduct of a region), and the enrichmentof large Russian, Chinese andtransnational companies. However the lifeof the common people, indigenous people

priority, and in many cases there may notbe anything left to protect anyway.

Another way for development, which isreceiving more and more support on aworld�wide basis, is founded upon aninternational “distribution of labour” andan overall account of long�term ecologicallosses. One particular situation is whenabout 200 ecoregions located on theterritories of a relatively small number ofcountries are providing all humankind withecological services. However, under thepressure of a non�regulated market, thepopulations of these countries are oftenforced to destroy unique ecosystems forthe sake of immediate benefits. The way toconserve these regions, and the Altai�Sayan region in particular is to recognisethat the conservation of nature is a major global effort, – “global ecosystemservice”, and then to develop andimplement a system for receiving meansfor the conservation of biological systems.

Of course, all of these ideas still lookrather far off from the reality of today.However certain improvements havealready occurred. For example, theapproach is recommended in the thirdvolume of the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (2001), which highlights fullaccounting of environment costs andbenefits. There are already examples ofpositive measures that provide the specialprivilege for goods with “environmentallyfriendly” labels. The leaders of all areas inthe Altai�Sayan ecoregion have alreadymade the first step towards by signing theAltai�Sayan Initiative proposed by WWF.This document is based on theaforementioned basic regulations, andconfirms the intention to developstrategies of sustainable development inthe ecoregion.

This way of development do not in any wayhinder the development of social, educa�tional, medical or other infrastructures of

the ecoregion, including transportationand communication. However, decisionsabout industrial projects should be madeonly after comprehensive analysis. Largeprojects for the development of mineralresource should be implemented only inexceptional cases under the condition thatthey will not undermine the ecologicalbasis of the region’s economy.

Another important question is the region’sparticipation in the global climatic “distri�bution of labour” and efforts to decreasegreenhouse gas emissions, as outlined inthe UN Framework Convention on ClimateChange, and, in particular, in internationaleconomic mechanisms of the KyotoProtocol. The Convention divided partici�pants into the countries of Annex 1(developed countries and the majority ofcountries with economy in transition,including Russia), and the remainingcountries (including Mongolia, China andKazakhstan). The countries of Annex 1should follow qualitative obligations todecrease or limit emissions, and throughspecial funds help other countries toadapt to climate changes and prepare todecrease emissions.

However, even though Russia is includedin Annex 1, the development of the Altai�Sayan area is so weak that in order toadapt the entire ecoregion to climatechanges, the region unquestionablyshould receive external assistance.

It is, of course, too early to speak about adecrease of greenhouse gas emissions inthe ecoregion. However, there could beprojects proposed for the modernisationof boiler�houses, residences and energyefficient heating systems, as well asprojects for the development of alternativeenergy sources which do not emit CO2(small hydroelectric power stations, windstations, etc.). Other potential projectsinclude forest restoration that would leadto the absorption of CO2 from theatmosphere, and ecologically soundforest management. These measures willmake significant contributions to thedecrease in the specific regional emission(per unit of Gross Regional Product), andin future to the decrease in greenhousegas emissions.

and other nationalities that currently liveon the territory will most likely not see anysignificant change for the better.

For example, the construction of a newroad to China will create many jobopportunities, but based on similar worldexperience, only the least paying jobs willbe left for the local people. Even more, theenvironment will suffer serious detriment,which will practically deplete theindigenous population of possibilities fortraditional ways of life and hunting. In thecourse of such events, means may befound to diminish the consequences offloods, and for road and bridgereconstruction. However, biodiversityconservation will most likely lose its

21Socio�economic Problems and Life of Indigenous People

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

21

Flood in Tyva, Kyzyl City, Spring 2001

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22WWF Warns of Danger22

Russian Federation

The Altai Republic

The most critical, deleterious consequences of climate change in the near future will bewinters with much snow and heavier snowfall, sudden thaws and heavy floods. Suchextreme conditions will allow the safe sustainable populations of Argali only on the ridgessurrounding the Chuisk steppe and on the Ukok Plateau. Because of thesecircumstances, relevant measures for the establishment of protected areas should beundertaken. The idea road construction across the Ukok Plateau will inflict the mostserious of detrimental effects on efforts to save Argali in the Republic.

The Snow Leopard will experience heightening stress from heavy snowfalls, whose impactwill be felt stronger in the western portion of the population. Thus, the establishment andenlargement of protected areas for the Argut population of Irbis becomes criticallyimportant. However, the implementation of effective anti�poaching measures hasbecome an even more urgent task, as it is poaching that is inflicting the most damage tothe Irbis population. The effects of poaching can be more pronounced than the impact ofclimate change in the next 20�30 years.

Sudden spring�winter thaws will create unfavourable conditions for ungulates, birds ofprey, and small mammals. This will demand the specific hunting restrictions and stricteranti�poaching regulations.

The Tyva Republic

There is a continually increasing possibility of heavy floods in spring. These floods couldpotentially lead to the flooding of homes and buildings, and the destruction of bridges androads. These threats must be taken into account in the construction or reconstruction ofbuildings, and detailed emergency plans and supplies must be prepared.

Snowy winters and heavy snowfalls will become even more frequent and are having seriousdeleterious effects on the safety of animals, up to massive death of Argali and a sharpdecrease in the number of Irbis in the Republic. The danger of avalanches will grow insome areas, which will also create additional transport problems.

The habitat conditions of the Argali and Irbis will only grow worse, and without undertakingspecial measures within the next 20�30 years, their presence in the Republic may be asseparate comings of the animals from Mongolia and Altai. In a short�term perspective,anti�poaching measures are especially critical there for the protection of both the mainpopulations of animals and for migrating individuals. In a mid�term perspective, thecreation of vast protected territories is crucial for the areas with the least possibility ofunfavourable climatic conditions, more specifically, in areas such as the Sengilenmountain range and the Uvs Nuur Depression.

WWF Warns of Danger

Conclusion:

Altai�Sayan Ecoregion is

zone of special risk of

the global climate threat

Immediate actions:

•strong anti�poachingmeasures

•strict regulation ofmountain pasture use,

especially in Mongolia

•capacity building and

Mongolia

Because of the strengthening of the dry period in summer, ungulates will be forced tospend more time in mountain pastures. Their competition with livestock willsubsequently increase, and in accordance with this, problems with the protection ofwild animals will also arise. Questions regarding the stricter regulation of mountainpasture use and the problem of regulation of specific breeds of livestock, especiallythe Kashmir goats, must also be solved.

In contrast with the Russian part of the ecoregion, the Mongolian Argali and Irbis havenot yet been threatened with extinction. However, it is essential to obtain completeand accurate data on their numbers, habitats, and migrations. In a long�termperspective, this data should be used as a basis to organise vast protected territories,and create long�term and strategic “refuges” for these specially protected species.

The implementation of effective anti�poaching measures for the protection of the Irbisand Argali has become particularly urgent, because poaching now is inflicting majordetriment that is more effectual than the climate changes that will take place in thenext 50 years.

In a more distant perspective, the changes of the nature zones will have more andmore often adversely affect, particularly on a shift of the deserts in a northerndirection. By the middle of the century in the Great Lakes Basin and the surroundingregions, the steppe area may be reduced by 7%, and the desert area will likelyincrease by 13%.

23WWF Warns of Danger

Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

23

The Khakasia Republic

The increasing frequency of winters with much snow and sudden spring�winter thaws willcreate adverse conditions for ungulates, hunting�birds of coniferous forests and smallmammals. So in order to further protect threatened populations, the introduction ofadditional hunting restrictions for particular years and seasons, and stricter anti�poachingregulations is necessary.

The likelihood of severe flooding will rise, which will bring with it bridge and roaddestruction. The areas of flooding will also increase.

In a long�term perspective, the movement of forests up the slopes will lead to asubstantial reduction, and later to “island fragmentation”, and perhaps even to thedisappearance of alpine meadows and most part of high mountain tundra. The silver firwill begin to dominate at the uppermost edge of the forest.

institutional preparations

to sharp thaws and strong

floods, especially in Tyva

and Altai

•development of Chuiskroad for trade with China

and repudiation of road

construction through Ukok

Plateau

•expansion of protectedareas system with focus on

growing climate threat

List of web�sites

www.panda.org – World Wide Fund for

Nature (WWF), wide spectrum of materials on

conservation of ecosystems and spices, infor�

mation on WWF International Climate Change

Program.

www.wwf.ru/climate – World Wide Fund for

Nature (WWF) Russian Climate Program,

library, publications, the latest news.

www.wwf.mn – site of WWF Mongolia

Country Office, information, events, and

activities.

www.wmo.ch – World Meteorological Organ�

isation, wide spectrum of materials and data

on climate changes.

www.ipcc.ch – IPCC (Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change) different issues of

climate change, forecasts, estimation of

impact on environment.

http://ipcc�ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk – IPCC,

the IPCC Center for climate change data

dissemination.

www.unfccc.int – Secretariat of the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC), the library of documents,

information on greenhouse gase emissions.

www.pacinst.org/wildlife.html – site with

wide library concerning climate change impact

on flora, fauna and ecosystems.

www.lib.noaa.gov – USA Agency Library on

Atmosphere and Ocean research, wide spec�

trum of materials and data on climate change.

www.rcmc.ru – site of Information�Analysis

center of CPPI Biodiversity Conservation

Department in Russian Federation, information

materials, news, international agreements.

www.mecom.ru/roshydro/pub/index.htm –

site of Federal Service on Hydrometeorology

and Environmental Monitoring, metcast,

information on whether phenomenon, news.

www.wwf.mn – site of WWF Mongolia

Country Office, information, events, and

activities.

http://climate.mecom.ru – Russian bulletin

of climate data.

Recent publications

Altai�Sayan Initiative to Next Millennium. Inter�

national Forum “Altai�Sayan – XXI Century” 7

October 1999. Belokurikha, Altai Krai.

www.wwf.ru/eco/millenium.html

Batima P., Dagvadorj D. Climate Change and

Its Impact in Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, 2000,

223 p.

Butviloivsky V.V., Paleogeography of the last

ice period and Altai Golocen: event�

catastrophic model. Tomsk, TGU, 1993, 252

p., (in Russian).

Chebakova N.M., Parfenova E.I., Possible

changes in Mount Altai vegetation under

climate warming and completing of prognostic

maps. Geobotanic Mapping. Komarov

Botanical Institute. SPb., 2000, 26�31 pp., (in

Russian).

Climate Change Impact on Ecosystems.

Nature protected areas in Russia: Analysis of

long�term observations. WWF Russian Pro�

gram Office, 2001. Moscow, Russia, 184 p., (in

Russian).

IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001, Third

Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),. v. 1 The

Scientific Basis, 881 p., v. 2 Impacts, Adapta�

tion, and Vulnerability, 1032 p., v.3 Mitigation,

752 p., Cambridge Univ. Press.

www.cambridge.org

Israel Yu.A., Gruza G.V., Katsov V.M.,

Meleshko V.P., Global climate change. The

role of anthropogenic impact. Meteorology

and Hydrology, 2001, #5, 5�21 pp.,

(in Russian).

Global Warming and Terrestrial Biodiversity

Decline. Eds.: J. Malcolm and A. Markham.

WWF, Gland, Switzerland, 2000, 40 p.

climate.campaign@wwfus.org;

www.panda.org/climate

Grubb M., Vrolijk C., Brack D. Kyoto protocol. A

Guide and Assessment. Russian edition. (Eds.:

L. Skuratovskaya and A. Kokorin), Moscow,

Nauka, , 2001, 303 p., (in Russian).

Klimanov V.A., On methodology of definition of

climate numerical characteristic of the past.

Vestnic of the Moscow State University mes�

senger. Ser. Geography. 1976, № 2, 92�98 pp.,

(in Russian).

Kyoto Protocol. Between signing and ratifica�

tion. WWF Russian Programme Office, 2001,

8 p., (in Russian).

www.wwf.ru/climate/kyoto_info.html

MAP�21, Mongolian Action Programme for the

21st Century. The National Council for

Sustainable Development of Mongolia,

Ulaanbaatar, 1999, 297 p.

Minin A.A., Climate and terrestrial ecosystems:

interactions and time�spatial variability. Meteo�

rology and Climatology. – Moscow: VINITI,

1991. Vol.19, 172 p., (in Russian).

aminin@cityline.ru

Minin A.A., Neronov V.M., Climate and

problems of biodivercity conservation in

Sahara – Gobi desert areas. Issue 1. Problems

of desert developing. 1996, 3�10 pp., (in

Russian).

Russian Ecological Doctrine. Draft prepared by

Russian ecological NGOs, (International

Socio�ecological Union, Center of Ecological

Policy, WWF Russian Programme Office,

et.al.), 30 March 2001, 12 p., (in Russian).

www.wwf.ru/publ/doctrine.html

Shaller G.B., Tserendeleg J., and Amarsanaa

G. Observation on Snow Leopards in Mongolia.

33�42 pp. In J.Fox and Jizeng, eds. Proc.

Seventh International Snow leopard Symp.,

Xining, China. International Snow leopard

Trust, Seattle, WA.,1994

Seliverstov Yu.P., Regional reply to global

climate changes in Inner Asia. Moscow, GEOS,

2000, 124�133 pp. (in Russian).

Vellinga P. and Van Verseveld W.J., Extremely

Weather Events. WWF, Gland, Switzerland,

2000, 52 p. www.panda.org/climate

24

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Climate PASSPORT of the Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

Editors:

Kokorin A.O., Ph.D.

Kozharinov A.V., Prof.

Minin A.A., Prof.

Contributors:

Amgalanbaatar S., Batsukh N., Bondarev A.I.,

Dagvadorj D., Dostoevskaya L.P.,

Fedotova V.G., Fefelov I.V., Gruza G.V.,

Istomov S.V., Kislitsin I.P., Klimanov V.A.,

Kokorin A.O., Kozharinov A.V., Minin A.A.,

Munkhtsog B., Nemolyaeva L.A.,

Rankova E.Y., Shapkhaev C.G., Tuluev K.D.,

Zakharchenko U.V.,

Contacts:

WWF International

Avenue du Mont�Blanc

1196 Gland

Switzerland

Phone: +41 22 364 91 11

Fax: +41 22 364 32 39

userid@wwfint.org ; www.panda.org

WWF Climate Target Driven Program

1250 24�th St., NW

Washington, D.C. 20037�1175, USA

Tel.: +1 202 822 3455

Fax: +1 202 331 2391

jmorgan@wwfus.org

www.panda.org/climate

WWF Russia

109240, Nikolo�Yamskaya 19�3,

Moscow, Russia

Tel.: (095) 727�09�39

Fax: (095) 727�09�38

russia@wwf.ru ; www.wwf.ru

WWF Mongolia Country Office

C/o Hydrometeorological & Environmental

Monitoring Agency

Khudaldaany Street 5

Ulaanbataar 46

Tel.: +976 11 31 16 59

Tel./fax: +976 11 31 0237

wwfmon@magicnet.mn ; www.wwf.mn

WWF Altai�Sayan Ecoregion Project Office

41 of. 38, Lenin St.

660049, Krasnoyarsk

Russia, P.O.box 25254

Tel.: (+7 3912) 27 94 91

Tel./fax: (+7 3912) 27 86 40

abondarev@wwf.ru

Art and design:

O.Vajnik, S.Trukhanov,

design studio “ORBIS PICTUS”

Brochure is prepared under the WWF

project RU0078.01 and RU0074.03

funded by the WWF Netherlands.

Editorial stuff:

Banner J., Kalinicheva U.V.,

Nemolyaeva L.A., Sargsyan A.H.

ISBN 5�89932�025�7

Published in November, 2001 by WWF, Moscow,

Russia

Any full or partial reproduction of this publica�

tion must include the title and give credit to the

above�mentioned publisher as the copyright

holder.

No photographs from this publication may be

reproduced without prior authorization from

WWF Russia.

© 2001 WWF Russia

Ecoregional Climate Change and Biodiversity Decline, Issue 1, Altai�Sayan Ecoregion

Date of issue:

24.10.2001

Date of expiry:

31.12.2010

(should be replaced

by Adaptation Plan)

Authority:

WWF Climate Programm

With several million supporters and a network of offices in more than 90 countrieson five continents, WWF is one of the world's largest independent conservationorganisations.

WWF's mission is to stop the degradation of the planet's natural environment and tobuild a future in which humans live in a harmony with nature, by:� conserving the world's biological diversity� ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable� promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption.

Let's leave our children a living planet

WWF Russia

19�3 Nikoloyamskaya St.,109240 Moscow Russia

Tel.: +7 095 727 09 39Fax: +7 095 727 09 38 russia@wwf.ru http://www.wwf.ru

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