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1

ONS Economic Forum 21 September 2016

ONS Economic Forum – September 2016

09.45 Introduction & Welcome

10.00 An overview of the UK Economic Situation

10.40 Economic Statistics for Northern Ireland

11.10 Refreshment Break

11.50 Productivity and Labour Market

12.30 Close

2

Agenda


Introduction and welcome Joe Grice Director and Chief Economist

3


An overview of the UK Economic Situation Darren Morgan National Accounts Coordination


4

Before-EU Referendum Result

Blue and Pink Book 2016

5


GDP Current Price (£m): previously published v Blue Book 2016

Levels revised up, average per year:

1997-2009 +£49.6bn (4.3%), 2010-2014 +£9.1bn (0.6%), 2015 +£4.9bn (0.3%)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates 6

Real GDP (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016

1998 to 2015: average growth unrevised at +2.0%

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Revision Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final Blue Book 2016 Chained Volume Measure Estimates

Real GDP, Seas. Adj. (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016

Q2 1997 to Q1 2016: average quarterly growth rate unrevised at +0.5%

average quarterly revision -0.01 percentage points, absolute revision 0.10 percentage points

-3.0%

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1997Q2 1998Q2 1999Q2 2000Q2 2001Q2 2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015 Q2

Revision Second estimate of GDP: Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 Final 2016 Chained Volume Measure Estimates 8

GDP economic downturn and recovery

• 2008/09 downturn: same length and similar depth, was -6.1%, now -6.3%

• strength of recovery:

• GDP pre-downturn peak re-attained in Q3 2013, one quarter later

• in Q1 2016: GDP 7.0% above pre-downturn peak, was 7.2%

• in Q1 2016: GDP per capita 0.9% above pre-downturn peak, was 1.1%

9

Balance of Payments: Current Account (£m): previously published v Pink Book 2016

-120000

-100000

-80000

-60000

-40000

-20000

0

20000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Revision Final Blue Book 2016 Current Price Estimates Quarter 4 (Oct-Dec) 2015 Current Price Estimates 10

Balance of Payments: Net International Investment Position (£m): previously published v Pink Book 2016

-500000

-400000

-300000

-200000

-100000

0

100000

200000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Household and NPISH saving ratio (%): previously published v Blue Book 2016

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


After-EU Referendum Result Short Term Indicators

13


UK Employment / Unemployment Rate (aged 16-64,%)

14

Employment rate 74.5% for May – July 2016

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

2007 JUN

2008 JUN

2009 JUN

2010 JUN

2011 JUN

2012 JUN

2013 JUN

2014 JUN

2015 JUN

2016 JUN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2007 JUN

2008 JUN

2009 JUN

2010 JUN

2011 JUN

2012 JUN

2013 JUN

2014 JUN

2015 JUN

2016 JUN

Unemployment rate 4.9% for May – July 2016

15

771,000 people claiming unemployment related benefits in August 2016

UK Total Claimant Count SA thousands of people, seasonally adjusted

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2007 JUN 2008 JUN 2009 JUN 2010 JUN 2011 JUN 2012 JUN 2013 JUN 2014 JUN 2015 JUN 2016 JUN

16

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan-Mar 2007

Sep-Nov 2007

May-Jul 2008

Jan-Mar 2009

Sep-Nov 2009

May-Jul 2010

Jan-Mar 2011

Sep-Nov 2011

May-Jul 2012

Jan-Mar 2013

Sep-Nov 2013

May-Jul 2014

Jan-Mar 2015

Sep-Nov 2015

May-Jul 2016

752,000 job vacancies for June - August 2016 These estimates exclude the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Sector

UK Total Vacancies thousands of people, seasonally adjusted

UK CPI (12 Month % change)

17

CPI July 2016 year-on-year growth 0.6%

CPI August 2016 year-on-year growth 0.6%

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 JUL 2008 JUL 2009 JUL 2010 JUL 2011 JUL 2012 JUL 2013 JUL 2014 JUL 2015 JUL 2016 JUL

18

UK PPI (12 Month % Change)

Input PPI August 2016 year-on-year growth

7.6%, compared with a rise of 4.1% in the year

to July 2016

Output PPI August 2016 year-on-year

growth 0.8%, compared with a rise of 0.3% in

the year to July 2016

Index of Production & Index of Manufacturing chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted

19

Index of Production month-on-month growth +0.1%

Index of Manufacturing month-on-month growth -0.9%

Index 2013=100

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2007JAN 2008JAN 2009JAN 2010JAN 2011JAN 2012JAN 2013JAN 2014JAN 2015JAN 2016JAN

Index of Production Index of Manufacturing

Index of Construction chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted

20

Index of Construction month-on-month growth flat

Index 2013=100

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan

Construction - new orders volume of new orders (£m), constant prices, seasonally adjusted

21

Increased by 8.6% compared with Quarter 1 2016

Increased by 7.5% compared with Quarter 2 2015

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Q1 2008

Q3 2008

Q1 2009

Q3 2009

Q1 2010

Q3 2010

Q1 2011

Q3 2011

Q1 2012

Q3 2012

Q1 2013

Q3 2013

Q1 2014

Q3 2014

Q1 2015

Q3 2015

Q1 2016

Housing Other work All new work

22

Retail sales August month-on-month fall of 0.2%

Retail sales July month-on-month increase of 1.9% 2013=100

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

2013 Oct 2014 Apr 2014 Oct 2015 Apr 2015 Oct 2016 Apr

Retail Sales Index Chained volume measures, seasonally adjusted

Imports and Exports £m, seasonally adjusted

23

Increase in exports and a fall in imports

35 000

37 000

39 000

41 000

43 000

45 000

47 000

49 000

51 000

2014 Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 Jan

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Exports Imports

Trade Balance £m, seasonally adjusted

24

Trade balance improved

-6 000

-5 000

-4 000

-3 000

-2 000

-1 000

2014 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Trade Prices non seasonally adjusted

25

Import and export prices tracking each other … counter intuitive? 2013=100

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Export Prices Import Prices

UK USA

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jun

-07

Dec

-07

Jun

-08

Dec

-08

Jun

-09

Dec

-09

Jun

-10

Dec

-10

Jun

-11

Dec

-11

Jun

-12

Dec

-12

Jun

-13

Dec

-13

Jun

-14

Dec

-14

Jun

-15

Dec

-15

Jun

-16

Export Prices Import Prices

Forthcoming publications to watch out for…

26

Date Release Period

30th September Index of Services July 2016

27th October GDP Preliminary Estimate Quarter 3 2016

25th November Business Investment Preliminary Release Quarter 3 2016

23rd December Quarterly National Accounts Quarter 3 2016

Balance of Payments Quarter 3 2016

Consumer Trends Quarter 3 2016

Blue Book 2017 – Main developments

• Corporate bonds interest payments

• Changes to the source data for Actual rental

• Enhancements to survey data • Wider product breakdown in acquisitions and disposals of Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)

• Enhanced detail for Financial corporations

• New data on number of drug users to inform estimates of illegal activities

• New survey sources for education in Trade in services

• More detailed sector breakdown • Separation of Households and Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH)

• More detailed presentation of the Financial corporation section

• Improvements to prices and volume methods after the last base year

27

Economic Statistics for Northern Ireland Richard Prothero (ONS)

James Gillan (NISRA)

28


Contents

• Presentation of ONS/NISRA data by Richard Prothero – Economic Output (GVA)

– Household Incomes

– Wellbeing

– Industrial Structure

– Qualifications

– Trade

• Presentation of additional NISRA data by James Gillan – Economic Output.

– Labour Market

• Future plans for ONS and NISRA by James Gillan

Producing NI economic statistics

• ONS meets inter/national and sub-national obligations

– Access to large across-UK data sources

• NISRA meets additional devolved needs

– Statutory authority to collect business data

• Relationship Governed by:-

– UK Statistics and Registration Services Act (2007)

– UK Concordat on Statistics “The administrations will work together to ensure the provision of coherent, reliable, consistent and timely UK-wide statistics”

Northern Ireland has performed less well than the UK since 2008

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Northern Ireland

Yorkshire and …

North East

North West

Scotland

East of England

West Midlands

Wales

South West

East Midlands

South East

London

Increase in nominal GVA

GVA Growth before and since Economic Downturn

2008-2014

2002-2008

The 2008-2014 data

shows how countries

and English regions

fared through the

downturn and

subsequent recovery.

The 2002-2008 data

shows how the regions

fared in a similar

period prior to the

downturn.

Note: due to the

economic downturn,

annual output in most

countries and regions

reached a temporary

peak in 2008 before

declining in 2009.

Source: ONS

GVA growth in Northern Ireland by area

Source: ONS

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Belfast Outer Belfast East of Northern

Ireland

North of Northern

Ireland

West and South of Northern

Ireland

Average annual growth in Nominal Gross Value Added (GVA)

2002-2008

2008-2014

GVA per head

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190

Wales

North East

Northern Ireland

Yorkshire and The Humber

West Midlands

East Midlands

North West

South West

East of England

Scotland

South East

London

UK=100

Nominal GVA per head, 2014

GVA per head GVA per hour worked Source: ONS

Household Income

In Northern Ireland,

relative performance in

GDHI is similar to

relative performance in

GVA per hour worked.

Source: ONS

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

Northern Ireland

North East

Wales


West Midlands

North West

East Midlands

Scotland

South West

East of England

South East

London

UK=100

Gross Disposable Household Incomes per head, 2014

GDHI per head by area 1997-2014

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

UK

= 1

00

Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) per head, 1997-2014

N Ireland

Outer Belfast

East of Northern Ireland

Belfast

North of Northern Ireland

West and South of Northern Ireland

Source: ONS

Personal Wellbeing

Source: ONS

How Satisfied are you with your life nowadays?

Where 0 is 'not at all satisfied' and 10 is 'completely satisfied'.

Proportion of residents in each Threshold Average (Mean)

rating

Low Medium High Very High

0-4 5-6 7-8 9-10

UK 4.6 14.2 52.1 29.2 7.65

Northern Ireland 4.4 12.8 44.0 38.7 7.85

England 4.6 14.3 52.4 28.8 7.64

Wales 5.2 14.4 50.7 29.7 7.63

Scotland 4.4 13.9 52.1 29.6 7.68

Personal Wellbeing

• Analysis on UK data shows health, employment status and relationship status as important factors related to personal well-being - but this can’t explain Northern Ireland result.

• Other potential factors – Country differences - Globally evidence of differences in

responses to wellbeing surveys across countries. – Expectations – The improved situation post-1998 may be

reflected in ongoing positive expectations. – High social capital - ONS social capital report showed that within

UK people living in Northern Ireland reported the highest levels for feelings of belonging to their neighbourhood (73%), that people around them were willing to help others (80%) and that the people in their neighbourhood can be trusted (73%).

Population Growth

Since 2008,

Northern Ireland

has seen growth

in both its working

age population

and total

population.

By contrast,

Wales and North-

East England had

a decline in

working age

population

between 2008-

2015.

Source: ONS

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

North East

Wales

North West

Scotland


Northern Ireland

West Midlands

South West

East Midlands

South East

East

London

Population Growth 2008-2015

all ages 16-64 yrs

Industrial Specialisations

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Mining and quarrying

Financial and insurance activities

Information and communication

Professional, scientific and technical activities

Administrative and support service activities

Real estate activities

Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply

Transportation and storage

Accommodation and food service activities

Construction

Arts, entertainment and recreation

Other service activities

Education

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles

Human health and social work activities

Manufacturing

Water supply; sewerage and waste management

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Public administration and defence; compulsory social …

Location Quotients, 2014 (based on GVA data)

relative to UK excluding London relative to UK Source: ONS

Qualifications

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

North East

Northern Ireland

West Midlands


North West

East Midlands

East

Wales

South West

South East

Scotland

London

% share of 16-64 year olds

Highest Level of Qualifications, 2015

Level 4 (degree level)

None

Source: ONS

UK =

35.8% Level 4,

9.0% None

Exports of Goods

Expressing

exports as a

share of GVA

gives a guide

as to relative

export

intensity.

Note,

however, this

is not the

same as

saying the

exports were

directly

responsible

for the share

of GVA

shown.

Source: HMRC

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Value of Goods Exports, 2015 (expressed as a percentage of GVA)

Exports of Goods by Industry

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Other commodities nes

Animal and Vegetable Oils

Mineral Fuels

Crude Materials

Beverages and Tobacco

Manufactured Goods

Miscellaneous Manufactures

Food and Live Animals

Chemicals

Machinery and Transport

Share of Goods Exports by Industry, NI and UK, 2015.

NI UK

Source: HMRC

Exports of Services

Expressing

exports as a

share of GVA

gives a guide

as to relative

export

intensity.

Note,

however, this

is not the

same as

saying the

exports were

directly

responsible

for the share

of GVA

shown.

Source: ONS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Value of Services Exports, 2014 (expressed as a percentage of GVA)

NI businesses external sales destinations 2011 - 2014

£3.3

£11.4

£3.4

£11.6

£3.7

£12.1

£3.6

£12.7

£2.0 £1.9 £2.2 £2.2

£3.7 £4.0 £4.1 £4.0

2011 2012 2013 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sale

s /

£b

illio

ns

GB sales

ROW Sales

REU Sales

ROI Sales

Source: NISRA

The local perspective Dr. James Gillan NISRA Economic and Labour Market Statistics

45

Comparison of NI Composite Economic Index (NICEI) with UK, Scotland & ROI GDP (Q1 2016)

(2012=100)

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex (

2012 =

100)

NI Composite Economic Index UK GDP Scotland GDP ROI GDP

ROI growth from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015 = 20.3%

Note that the NICEI is not directly equivalent to GDP

46

Source: NI Composite Economic Index, ONS Quarterly National Accounts,

Scottish Government Quarterly National Accounts , CSO Ireland Quarterly

National Accounts

Northern Ireland (NI) experienced the sharpest fall and slowest recovery compared to Scotland & the UK as a whole

(2012 = 100)

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex (

2012 =

100)

Comparison of NICEI with UK, Scotland GDP (to Q1 2016)

NI Composite Economic Index UK GDP Scotland GDP

NI peak to trough = -10.6%

Scotland peak to trough = -4.0%

UK peak to trough = -6.3%

47

Source: NI Composite Economic Index, ONS Quarterly

National Accounts, Scottish Government Quarterly National

Accounts

105.8

110.2

110.8 110.9

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex (2

00

2 =

10

0)

NI vs UK total employee jobs (2002-2016)

UK

Northern Ireland

Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI), ONS (UK)

110.4

99.2

112.6

116.1

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex (

20

02

= 1

00

)

Public

Private

In June 2016, the NI public sector made up 28% of all employee jobs and the

Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)

Index of Northern Ireland public and private sector

employee jobs

50

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

MANUFACTURING

CONSTRUCTION

SERVICES

OTHER IND.

ALL INDUSTRIES


Annual change in employee jobs (2008-2016)

NI Sectoral change in employee jobs – downturn (2008-2012)

51 Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)

-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Health activities

Office administrative activities

Computer programming, consultancy & related activities

Activities of head offices

Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products

Crop and animal production, hunting & related activities

Activities auxiliary to financial services & insurance

Sports activities,amusement & recreation

Waste collection activities

Repair & installation of machinery & equipment

Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles

Civil engineering

Education

Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products

Social work activities without accommodation

Employment activities

Public administration & defence

Retail trade, except of motor vehicles & motorcycles

Construction of buildings

Specialised construction activities

Change 2008-2012

NI Sectoral change in employee jobs – recovery (2012-2016)

52 Source: NISRA Quarterly Employment Survey (NI)

-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Public administration & defence

Financial activities excl. Insurance/pension funding

Manufacture of electrical equipment

Manufacture of beverages & tobacco products


Postal and courier activities

Scientific research & development

Civil engineering

Other manufacturing

Manufacture of rubber & plastic products

Retail trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles

Manufacture of food products

Activities of head offices

Legal and accounting activities

Computer programming & consultancy activities

Food & beverage service activities




Health activities

Change 2012-2016


NI Sectoral change in employee jobs (2002-2016)

-25000 -20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Public administration and defence

Manufacture of wearing apparel

Manufacture of textiles

Construction of buildings


Manufacture of computer products

Postal and courier activities

Manufacture of rubber & plastic products

Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products

Manufacture of electrical equipment

Legal and accounting activities

Services to buildings & landscape activities

Real estate activities

Food & beverage service activities


Computer programming & consultancy activities



Retail trade, except of motor vehicles/cycles

Health activities

Change 2002-2016

109.1

113.1

110.5

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Ind

ex (2

00

2 =

10

0)

Unadjusted at June each year

Index of NI full-time and part-time employee jobs

NI Full-Time

NI Part-Time

NI Total Jobs

In June 2016, NI full-time jobs made up 66% of total jobs and part-time jobs made up 34% of total jobs.


-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Emp

Source: LFS

Change in employees and self employed from

Jan-Mar 2008 (Not seasonally adjusted, May-Jun 2016

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Male FT

Total Emp

Source: LFS



-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Male PT

Male FT

Total Emp

Source: LFS



-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Female FT

Male PT

Male FT

Total Emp

Source: LFS



-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Female PT

Female FT

Male PT

Male FT

Total Emp

Source: LFS



-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

S/E

Female PT Female FT

Male PT

Source: LFS



0%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

Rate

Percent of people in employment on a “zero hours

contract”, UK Regions

Source: Labour Force Survey, April – June 2016 61

Programme for Government Framework – Indicators & Measures

62

Indicator Measure

Lab

ou

r M

arke

t

17. Reduce economic inactivity Economic inactivity rate excluding students

32. Increase economic opportunities for our most

deprived communities

The employment rate of 16-64 year olds by deprivation

quintile

33. Reduce underemployment % of people working part time who would like to work more

hours

14. Improve the skills profile of the population

The proportion of the workforce in employment with

qualifications at level 1 and above, level 2 and above, level 3

and above, and level 4 and above

16. Increase the proportion of people in work Seasonally adjusted employment rate (16-64)

18. Increase the proportion of people working in

good jobs A Good Jobs Index

34. Improve regional balance of economic

prosperity through increased employment Employment rate by geographic area

Eco

no

my

20. Increase the size of the economy Private Sector NICEI (Northern Ireland Composite Economic

Index)

21. Increase the competitiveness of the economy External sales

22. Increase innovation in our economy Regional innovation ranking

42. Increase quality of life for people with disabilities Average life satisfaction score of people with disabilities

Expenditure per capita on Final Demand components (2012)

63

15,278

16,993

16,035

6,660

5,430

5,893

2,072

4,247

4,119

NI

UK

Scotland

Household Final Consumption Expenditure

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

Gross Capital Formation

Source: NISRA, ONS & Scottish Government

Supply-Use Tables

Interactive Content

NISRA releases & future plans

• Upcoming NISRA releases :- – Labour Market bulletin (monthly)

– NI Composite Economic Index - Q2 2016 (Oct)

– Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2016 (Oct)

– Annual Business Inquiry / Exports 2015 (Dec)

• Future NISRA plans – Digital Economy Bill / use of new sources

– Data Science

65

ONS releases & future plans

• Upcoming ONS releases :- – Labour Market bulletin (monthly)

– Regional GVA (Dec)

– Regional / Sub-regional Productivity (Jan)

• Future ONS plans – Household Final Consumption Expenditure

– Short Term Indicators for English Regions

– Flexible Geographies

66



67


The labour market and productivity

Dr Philip Wales

Head of Productivity

68


Labour market and productivity

• Headline labour market quantities data

• Key differences of the NI labour market

• Earnings in the NI and UK labour markets

• Productivity

69

The labour market in Northern Ireland

70

43.0%

13.8%

3.5%

39.4%

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

20

06

-07

20

07

-08

20

08

-09

20

09

-10

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

20

13

-14

20

14

-15

20

15

-16

Tho

usa

nd

s

Full time Employment Part time Employment Unemployed Inactive

Labour market status of the NI population – all 16+

Source: Labour Force Survey

Unemployment rate

71

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

United Kingdom Northern Ireland %


Note: Headline unemployment rate (among those aged 16+)

Employment rate

72

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016



Note: Headline employment rate (among those aged 16-64)

Inactivity rate

73

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016



Note: Headline inactivity rate (among those aged 16-64)


Relative to the UK, Northern Ireland’s labour market currently has a:

• A higher rate of inactivity

• A lower employment rate

• Similar unemployment rates

These are broadly consistent with historical trends: over the lifetime of the LFS, NI’s employment and inactivity rates have been persistently 4 percentage points weaker than in the UK as a whole.

74




– 1. Inactivity

– 2. Employment


• Productivity

75

Key features of NI labour market

76

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016


Inactivity – Northern Ireland & the UK


Note: Headline inactivity rate (among those aged 16-64)


77

Inactivity – by age group (2006 Q2)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70


Rolling five year age groups

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70



78

Inactivity – by age group (2016 Q2)

Source: Labour Force Survey Rolling five year age groups


79

Contributions to inactivity by Reason, Northern Ireland – by age group (2016 Q2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

18 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63

Looking after the family LT sick/disabled Other Total

Rolling five year age groups

%

Source: Labour Force Survey,

Note: ’Other’ includes retired individuals, students and other reasons


80

Inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69

Percentage points

Total

Rolling five year age groups Source: Labour Force Survey,



81

Contributions to inactivity by age – UK vs Northern Ireland (Q2 2016)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69

Percentage points

Other Total




82


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69

Percentage points

Long-term sick as disabled (would not like work)

Other

Total




83


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69

Percentage points

Looking after the family (would not like work)

Long-term sick as disabled (would not like work)

Other

Total






– 1. Inactivity

– 2. Employment


• Productivity

84

Employment rate

85

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016



Note: Headline employment rate (among those aged 16-64)


86

Employment rate – by age (year to 2016 Q2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

United Kingdom Northern Ireland % Employed

Source: Labour Force Survey Rolling five year age groups


87

Full time share of employment

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

Rest of the UK Northern Ireland % Full-time



88

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

Rest of the UK Northern Ireland % Part-time


Part time share of employment





• Productivity

89

Earnings

90

Median earnings by region: 2005, 2010, 2015, UK=100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

London

South East

Scotland

East

North East

North West

South West

West Midlands

Yorkshire and The …

Northern Ireland

Wales

East Midlands 2015

2010

2005

UK

Source: Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings

Earnings

91

Distribution of earnings: 1997

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %

Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-20 pence), £


Earnings

92


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

£3.00 £5.00 £7.00 £9.00 £11.00 £13.00 £15.00 £17.00 £19.00 £21.00 £23.00 £25.00 £27.00 £29.00

Northern Ireland, 1997

United Kingdom, 1997

Density, %

Gross Hourly Earnings (+/- 20 pence), £


Earnings

93


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %


Earnings

94


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

95


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

96


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

97


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

98


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

99


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

100


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

101


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

102


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

103


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

104


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

105


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

106


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

107


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

108


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

109


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

110


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

111


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Density, %



Earnings

112


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

£3.00 £5.00 £7.00 £9.00 £11.00 £13.00 £15.00 £17.00 £19.00 £21.00 £23.00 £25.00 £27.00 £29.00

Northern Ireland, 2015

United Kingdom, 2015

Density, %

Gross Hourly Earnings (+/- 20 pence), £






• Productivity

113

Productivity

114

Regional Productivity – nominal terms

75 80 85 90 95 100

West and South of Northern Ireland

North of Northern Ireland

East of Northern Ireland

Outer Belfast

Belfast

Northern Ireland

GVA per job filled, 2014, UK=100 GVA per job filled, 2014, UK=100

Source: ONS sub-regional productivity estimates

0 50 100 150

Wales

North East

Northern Ireland


West Midlands

East Midlands

North West

South West

Scotland

East of England

South East

London

Productivity

115

Regional Productivity – distribution of firm-level labour productivity

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Density

Productivity (£ thousands per worker)

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Density

Productivity (£ thousands per worker)

2008

2011

2014

Northern Ireland Great Britain

Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey

Note: Includes Private, non-financial firms.

Productivity

116

Regional Productivity – composition of the top 10% of firms by productivity

48.3% 46.3% 50.5%

13.9% 14.6%

16.6%

12.8% 13.2%

11.8%

17.2% 18.7% 15.9%

7.7% 7.2% 5.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2011 2014

29.0% 35.0% 32.1%

7.4%

5.9% 8.1%

27.7% 25.4% 25.6%

28.1% 21.5% 24.8%

7.8% 12.1% 9.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2011 2014


Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey


Productivity

117

Regional Productivity – intra-industry distribution of productivity

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Productivity, £ thousands

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

0 50 100 150 200

Productivity, £ thousands


Source: Annual Business Inquiry, Annual Business Survey, ONS analysis


Manufacturing

Construction

Whole. & retail of mot. vehicles

Accomm & food services

Transport & storage

Info & comms

Real estate

Prof., Sci., & Tech. activities

Admin & support activities


• UK labour market is recovering strongly from the economic downturn: labour market in NI appears to have a similar headline unemployment experience, but has been weaker in terms of its inactivity and employment rate performance

• The UK’s income distribution has changed markedly over the last ten years, with a growing concentration of workers at or around the national minimum wage. This is broadly consistent with the experience in Northern Ireland – although the prevalence of low pay is more marked here than in the UK as a whole

• The average level of nominal productivity in Northern Ireland is notably lower than in the UK average. However, there are a range of firm-level performances both within and between industries in NI, mirroring the range for the rest of GB.

118

Questions

119




120


Annex

121



122

Skills (year to 2008 Q2)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Degree or equivalent

Higher education

A-level or equivalent

GCSE A*-C Other qualification

No qualification

Don't Know

Northern Ireland Rest of the UK

Educational level

% with given educational level



123

Skills (year to 2016 Q2)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Degree or equivalent

Higher education

A-level or equivalent

GCSE A*-C Other qualification

No qualification

Don't Know


Educational level

% with given educational level



124

Industrial mix (year to 2008 Q2)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Agriculture Mining and quarrying

Manufacturing Electricity and gas

Water supply Construction

Wholesale and retail trade Transportation and storage Accommodation and food

Information and communication Financial services

Real estate activities Professional services

Support admin Public admin

Education Health

Arts and entertainment Other service activities


Industry (main job)

% in given industry


125

Industrial mix (year to 2016 Q2)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Agriculture Mining and quarrying

Manufacturing Electricity and gas

Water supply Construction

Wholesale and retail trade Transportation and storage Accommodation and food

Information and communication Financial services

Real estate activities Professional services

Support admin Public admin

Education Health

Arts and entertainment Other service activities


Industry (main job)

% in given industry

Earnings

126

Distribution of earnings growth: 2015

0

5

10

15

20

25

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Density, %

Growth in Gross Hourly Earnings (+/-0.5 percentage points), %


127

Prevalence of self-employment

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Rest of the UK Northern Ireland % Self-employed

Levels of inactivity by age

128

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63

Looking after the family

LT sick/disabled

Other

Total

Average of rolling five year age groups

economic forum in belfast

Government & Nonprofit