dunn - worknetworknet.wisconsin.gov/worknet_info/downloads/cp/dunn_profile.pdfbrook, and tainter...
TRANSCRIPT
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Wisconsin now has more people employed and more private sector jobs than at any me in its history. As of this wri ng, the state added 56,100 jobs during 2016 and 2017 . Employment increased in almost all industry sectors, with prominent gains in construc on, manufacturing, and healthcare.
Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is near lows not seen in a genera on, decreasing from 4.3 percent in January 2016 to 3.2 percent in December 2017, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Wisconsin faces a worker quan ty challenge. The number of re ring Baby Boomers nearly match the influx of new workers, resul ng in a slow growing workforce and placing constraints on the ability by employers across all industries to hire talent. Many businesses report that the lack of available workers has hindered expansion and, in some cases, even curtailed their ability to meet current product orders.
The blue‐line, orange‐line graph to the right illustrates the situa on in Wisconsin and other upper‐Midwest states. While Wisconsin's popula‐
on will con nue to grow over the next twenty years, the workforce faces serious constraints.
The labor force par cipa on rate (LFPR), defined as the labor force (sum of employed and unemployed) divided by the total popula on ages 16 and older, measures the popula‐
on's engagement in the workforce and serves as an indicator in deter‐mining how Wisconsin's workforce will be constrained.
The overall LFPR peaked in the late 1990s and has been trending lower ever since. The LFPR of peaks across the 30‐55 age cohort at over ninety percent and decreases rapidly into the single digits by age seventy. Baby Boomers have and con nue to exit with respect to their LFPR. The mass of Baby Boomers has moved into the work lifecycle stage of declining
LFPRs, with the tail end of the cohort turning 55 in 2019.
A recent development is the change in the labor force par cipa on rate trend. The LFPR of older workers (those aged 55 years and older) has turned upwards, resul ng in fla en‐ing of the overall LFPR. More boom‐ers are staying in the workforce longer, which may portend higher workforce growth over the coming years. Due to the size of the Baby Boomer cohort and the sensi vity of the LFPR to workforce growth rates, a rela vely small change in the LFPR of older workers would significantly boost the number in the workforce.
Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
Source: Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
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Popula on and Demographics
Dunn County added 718 residents from April 2010 to January 2016, growing at a rate of 1.6%, slightly faster
than the statewide growth rate of 1.5%. It ranked the 15th fastest growing among the state’s 72 coun es.
Net‐migra on, which is defined as people moving into the county minus those leaving, was nega ve for the pe‐
riod studied, as it was in about one‐third of Wisconsin coun es. Popula on change due to net‐migra on was
‐0.2% from 2010 to 2016, s ll faring rela vely well compared to the drop in the statewide figure of ‐0.3%. This
was also faster growth than in the last county profile, which showed net‐migra on at –0.9%.
Growth due to natural increase was 1.9% in Dunn
County, slightly higher than the statewide percent
gain. This highlights the low median age in the coun‐
ty. Dunn County’s median age of 34.1 is ranked the
3rd youngest in the state (ACS, 2011‐2015).
The City of Menomonie is Dunn County’s largest
popula on center, at 16,338 residents. Home to the
University of Wisconsin ‐ Stout, the city gained 74
residents from 2010 to 2016, reversing a loss in the
previous county profile.
More people moving into the county are choosing
to live in a rural area, with the lifestyle that it en‐
tails, while s ll living rela vely close to city ameni‐
es and job opportuni es; this is a common trend.
Elk Mound, for example, benefits from its loca on,
equidistant to Menomonie and the much larger City
Source: Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administra on
Source: Demographic Services Center, Wisconsin Department of Administra on
Components of Popula on Change
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Labor Force Dynamics
of Eau Claire.
Popula ons in
other fast growing townships like Red Cedar, Spring Brook, and Tainter have also benefi ed from this trend.
The graph above compares Dunn County’s monthly unemployment rate to the state and na on. Dunn’s rate of
2.6% in May 2017 is quite low historically speaking, although not as low as during the booming economy of the
late 1990s. While a growing economy is par ally responsible for today’s low unemployment rates, the trend of
slow labor force growth (or even declines in some coun es) due to baby boomers leaving the labor force also
impacts the rates.
You can see this concept displayed
on the graph to the le . The labor
force consists of the employed and
unemployed (represented as the
sum of stacked bars in the graph),
so the trend will be along the top
edge of the bars. Dunn’s labor
force has seen significantly slower
growth this decade than the early
2000s, a trend likely to con nue
into at least the next decade.
Dunn’s younger popula on may
blunt some of the impact that re‐
ring baby boomers will have on
Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
Source: Local Area Unemployment Sta s cs, Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
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Industry Employment and Wages
the area’s labor force, but it’s important to remember that many of those younger workers are post‐secondary
students, a very mobile popula on, and many leave a er gradua ng. However, the county may benefit from this
pool of possible workers available a er gradua on if it has the higher‐skill jobs to absorb them. Employers will
need to convince them to stay in Dunn County, o en an easier prospect for an area than luring in workers from
elsewhere. This is a be er situa on than many Wisconsin coun es face.
Dunn County saw job growth of roughly 3.4% (586 jobs), from 2015 to 2016, ranking it 3rd among the state’s 72
coun es, by percent change. Educa on and health services, the largest industry super‐sector of employment
listed in Dunn County, was down slightly from 2013 to 2014. However, it’s important to note that this jobs num‐
ber may be somewhat mis‐
leading. A Dunn County based
company operates homes for
the elderly throughout the
state but doesn’t break out
employment to each site sep‐
arately; thus, the employment
is all listed in Dunn County. As
a result the health care sector
numbers in Dunn are domi‐
nated by these nursing facili‐
es jobs. Most of the jobs lost
were in this sub‐sector, which
may not reflect an actual loss
in Dunn.
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Employment Projec ons
Trade, transporta on and u li es is the second largest super‐sector of employment, which gained 482 jobs from
2015‐2016. Most of the gain was in the truck transporta on and warehousing sub‐sectors. This reflects Dunn’s
loca on along I‐94, with easy access to the Twin Ci es and Chicago, making it a favorable spot for distribu on
centers.
Manufacturing is the third largest super‐sector of employment in Dunn County, and it gained 130 jobs from 2015‐
2016. The 3 largest sub‐sectors in manufacturing account for almost 40% of manufacturing employment in the
county—wood product manufacturing (+43 from 2015‐2016), food manufacturing (‐22), and fabricated metal
manufacturing (‐12), respec vely.
While studying past trends is useful, DWD also produces projec ons of industry and occupa on employment into
the future. The industry and occupa onal employment projec ons in this profile are for the nine‐county West
Central Wisconsin Workforce Development Area, produced every two years, following Bureau of Labor Sta s cs
methodology. While this region includes more than just Dunn County, which accounts for about 9% of employ‐
ment in the region, employment and economic dynamics are similar enough throughout the region to comment
on general trends.
Employment across all industries is expected to grow by about 6% over the ten year period, or almost 14,000
workers. This projec on only forecasts levels of filled posi ons rather than poten al demand. This further illus‐
trates the issues associated with the aging popula on—while growth in the labor force is slowing, and in some
coun es even declining, job growth is expected to con nue. So while businesses are already having difficulty fill‐
ing the job openings vacated by re rees, increasing difficulty will be felt filling new openings as well, which could
even end up constraining job growth by limi ng expansions.
Solu ons to this issue will be different for each business, but will likely include a combina on of possibili es like
talent pipeline development (examples include the Wisconsin Fast Forward training grants, and business alliances
aimed at marke ng specific careers), increased focus on talent a rac on and reten on, engaging under‐u lized
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Employment Projec ons
workforces (like those with barriers to workforce entry), increased automa on, and retaining re rees in non‐
conven onal work arrangements to name a few.
The most significant numerical growth is expected in Educa on and Health Services (3,353, 6% growth rate), and
Professional and Business Services (2,272, 13.5% growth rate). Another super‐sector with strong an cipated
growth is the Construc on sector (1,085, 15.7%).
While industry projec ons have their uses, a more func onal approach is projected occupa onal growth. An
examina on of projected occupa onal employment growth reveals a possible explana on for the moderate
growth rates an cipated in a number of the region’s largest industry sectors. We first see that the most signifi‐
cant occupa onal growth can be observed in a number of occupa onal categories largely concentrated in the
Health Services sector, including Healthcare Prac oners, Healthcare Support, and Personal Care and Services
workers. Significant growth is also an cipated in many other occupa onal sectors, suppor ng the narra ve of
long‐range stability in many of the region’s largest industries. The other trend that is also illustrated is that of
labor constraints as openings created due to replacement needs outnumber those generated by new growth by
over three‐to‐one in the region. This is the reason for the increased importance placed on the availability and
Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, September 2015
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skill sets of young workers entering the region’s workforce. It’s vitally important to realize that slow growth or
declines in employment don’t necessarily reflect on the health of those industries. Employment declines may be
due to factors such as increased automa on and produc vity. There will be many openings simply due to re re‐
ments!
Further illustra ng the impact of aging demographics, the graph above depicts the job base by major industry
sector outlining the age distribu on of its job holders in the West Central region. The age distribu ons vary widely
from industry to industry, easily observed from the graph.
Occupa onal composi on within an area is a complex factor, influenced first by overall labor availability, then
individual job holders’ life stage, experience, educa on/training, etc. This tends to correspond to age. For exam‐
ple, younger inexperienced workers, like many of the region’s students, tend to work in entry‐level jobs. These
entry jobs are more prominent in industries such as the leisure and hospitality sector. Other industries, such as
the educa on and health care sector, require workers to have completed a higher level of formal educa on or
training and so they have a rela vely low share of the youngest working cohorts. Typically, higher educa on lev‐
els tend to correspond to older age groups who have invested the me necessary to achieve those advanced edu‐
ca onal levels. O en when examining age/labor force issues, we focus too broadly on labor force entry and exit
data, to tell us how many workers are available. While useful, this ignores the dynamics within the workforce,
which is not a homogenous popula on. Data such as age by industry can give us ac onable informa on like which
industry will have the most upcoming re rements, promp ng a need for recruitment and succession planning.
For More Informa on:
Sco Hodek
Regional Economist — West Central WDA
Phone: (715) 836‐2997 Email: sco [email protected]