Solving The Housing Inventory CrisisMidyear Mortgage Update & ConferenceFriday, June 9, 2017
Paul Yorkis2017 PresidentMassachusetts Association of Realtors®
The News
Inventory: Pre-Home Buyer Tax Credit(2010)
www.thinglink.com
Today: The Inventory Desert
The Inventory NumbersFebruary 2017
12,376
February 20173,656
September 200638,662
June 200618,893
Highs
Lows
Months of Supply
Balanced Market 6.5 to 7.5 months
Buyers’ Market
Sellers’ Market
>7.5 months
< 6.5 months
How Bad?
Months of Supply
All-time Lows:
- Single-family - Feb. 2017: 2.6 months
- Condominiums: - Feb. 2017: 2.0 months
All-time Highs:
- Single-Family - July 2008: 11.1 months
- Condominiums - May 2008: 11.3 months
Q: Are we in a Housing Bubble?
Answer:
NO(I’m a Realtor not an economist, but I have some
thoughts…)
Definition
“A housing bubble is a run-up in housing prices fueled by demand,
speculation and exuberance…”
Source: Investopedia.com
What We Know: Today vs. Bubble
Today: Demand - High
Prices – High
Inventory - Low
Bubble: Demand - High
Prices - High
Inventory - High (Huh?)
Tale of the ‘Tape’ (Bubble vs. Today)
April 2005 April 2017 %change
Median Price $355,000 $362,500 +2%
Inventory 22,139 13,234 -40%
Months Supply 5.0 2.7 -46%
The ‘351’ Problem
How Do We Solve The Inventory Problem?
Solutions
1. More Homeowners to Sell their Homes;
2. People need to move in with family or move away;
3. Investors need to sell single-family homes to homebuyers; and
4. BUILD MORE HOMES!!!
The Solution to More Production Starts Here
What can you do to help?
Additional Food for Thought
$
Questions?