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Demo-Version
Russia: Rails Market
Analysis and Forecast to 2017
July 2012
Marketing Research
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Brief Overview
The report on the Russian rails market contains:
Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;
Structure of consumption by region;
Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;
Analysis of exports and imports;
Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market;
Analysis of raw materials’ base;
Analysis of the state of the consuming industries;
Assessment and forecast of market development;
Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.
Methodology:
Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;
Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;
An analysis of statistical information:
o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);
o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);
o The Ministry of Economic Development;
o The Federal Tax Service;
o Industry associations.
The report will allow you to:
1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on
market data;
2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.
Key figures presented in the report on the Russian rails market:
Volumes of production, exports and imports;
Indicators of market development;
Consumption indicators.
The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the
forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,
importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and
unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with
special conditions on the purchase of the reports.
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Why People Choose Us
• We have been professionals in marketing research for over 9 years, and have
completed over 1000 industry studies which are updated on a regular basis.
• We collect data via expert interviews with market participants. Industry experts
verify all secondary information used in the report.
• We have an extensive database of economic information in almost every sector of
the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a
complete picture of the market of interest.
• Our own research methodology guarantees the consistently high quality of our work.
• We offer unique and individualized customer service:
o Personal account on the website with a personal manager;
o Monitoring of the status of your order online;
o Pre-sale specialist advice and answers to post-purchase questions.
• We offer special conditions for the actualization of our research reports. If interested,
find out about these conditions from our specialists now!
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Research Design
The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian rails market and build a
forecast of the industry in the medium term.
Geography of the research: Russia
Methodology
1. Analysis of secondary market data:
Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,
shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and
private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox
Marketing” own research.
2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):
Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market
and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market
participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending
requests for price lists and other presentation materials.
3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants
The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with
representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.
Our approach to the estimation
The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants
(experts).
Experts
As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-
volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert
opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular
basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request
or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive
database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are
provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Accuracy of forecasts
The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical
period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to
create the overall average forecast
Indicators
1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features
the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give
an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their
expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).
2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production
capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of
domestic production.
3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import
operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in
legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of
a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Table of Contents 1. Executive summary
2. Research design
3. Description of rails
4. Characteristics of the raw materials’ base
5. Technology of production of rails
6. Characteristics of the Russian rails market in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for 2012 -
2017
6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian rails market in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for
2012 - 2017
6.2. Structure of the rails market: production, exports, imports, consumption
7. Characteristics of the domestic production of rails in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for
2012 - 2017
7.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of rails in 2005 - April 2012
7.2. Structure of production of rails by regions of the Russian Federation
7.3. Main manufacturers of rails and their corresponding market shares
7.3.1. OJSC EVRAZ Unity North-Siberian Metallurgy Factory: Nizhnetagilskiy
Metallurgy Factory and Novokuznetskiy Metallurgy Factory
7.3.2. Group of companies “Mechel”
7.4. Investment projects in the industry
8. Characteristics of the imports of rails to the Russian market
8.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of rails
8.2. Manufacturing countries, importing rails to the territory of the Russian Federation
8.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the rails, imported to the Russian
Federation
8.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imports of rails
8.5. Structure of the imports of rails by regions of the Russian Federation
9. Characteristics of the Russian exports of rails
9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of rails
9.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of rails
9.3. Manufacturing companies, supplying rails for exports
9.4. Sending regions of the Russian exports of rails
10. Factors, influencing the development of the rails market
10.1. State of the railway construction
11. Characteristics of the consumption of rails
11.1. Volume and dynamics of consumption of rails in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for 2012
- 2017
11.2. Volume and structure of the consumption of rails by Federal Districts of the
Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for 2012 - 2017
11.3. Structure of the consumption of rails by industries in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for
2012 - 2017
11.4. Balance between production and consumption of rails in 2005 - 2011
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
12. Forecast for the development of the rails market in 2012 - 2017
12.1. Evaluation of the potential volume of supply of rails in 2012 - 2017
12.2. Evaluation of the development of the market after Russia’s accession to the WTO
Appendix 1. Financial and economic indicators of the industry
Appendix 2. Profiles of the leading manufacturers
• Contact data
• Registration data
• Company management
• Daughter companies
• Main shareholders
• Balance sheet of the company
• Profit and loss statement of the company
• Main financial indicators of the company
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Data, presented in Tables
• Dynamics of the rails market in 2008 - 2017
• Production of rails in 2005 - April 2012, in tons
• Volume of production of rails by types in January - April 2012, in tons
• Production of rails by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2005 - April
2012, in tons
• Average manufacturers’ prices of rails in the Russian Federation in January 2007 -
April 2012
• Volume of the imports of rails by manufacturing countries in 2011, in tons
• Volume of the imports of rails by manufacturing companies in 2011, in tons
• Volume of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation by importing companies in
2011, in tons
• Volume of the imports of rails by regions of the Russian Federation in 2011, in tons
• Volume of the Russian exports of rails by recipient countries in 2011, in tons
• Volume of the Russian exports of rails by manufacturing companies in 2011, in tons
• Volume of the Russian exports of rails by sending regions in 2011, in tons
• Indicators of the state of the railway construction industry in 2008 – 2011
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Data, presented in Figures
• Volume of supply on the rails market in 2008 - 2017
• Production of rails in 2010 - April 2012, in tons
• Production of rails in January 2010 - April 2011, in %, to the analogical period of the
previous year
• Production of rails in 2005 - 2011, in tons
• Structure of the production of rails in 2005 - 2009 by types, in tons
• Structure of the production of rails by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in
2011
• Structure of the production of rails by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in
2005 - 2010
• Dynamics of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation in 2011, in tons
• Structure of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation by manufacturing
countries in 2011
• Structure of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation by manufacturing
companies in 2011
• Structure of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation by importing companies
• Structure of the imports of rails by recipient regions of the Russian Federation in
2011
• Dynamics of the Russian exports of rails in 2011, in tons
• Structure of the Russian exports of rails by recipient countries in 2011
• Structure of the Russian exports of rails by manufacturing companies in 2011
• Structure of the Russian exports of rails by sending regions in 2011
• Indicators of the state of the railway construction industry in 2008 - 2011
• Dynamics of the consumption of rails in the Russian Federation in 2009 - 2017, in
tons
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Executive Summary*
…
The volume of supply on the Russian rails market in 2012 was almost … tons, which is …%
higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of imported
products on the rails market was …%.
The volume of production of rails in 2012 was … tons, which is …% higher than the volume
of production in 2011.
The largest share (…%) of all rails manufactured in the Russian Federation in 2012 belongs
to the … Federal District.
In 2012, the import volume of rails in Russia amounted to … tons in physical terms and to …
thousand USD in value terms.
In 2012, the volume of the Russian exports of rails was … tons, which was equal to …
thousand USD in value terms.
…
*The information provided from this point on in this demo version is for illustrative purposes
only, so that you can get a general overview of how our reports look like. If you need more
information, you can contact us at: [email protected].
Key figures and
conclusions
about the market
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
6. Characteristics of the Russian rails
market
...
6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian rails market in
2007 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017
The volume of supply on the Russian rails market in 2012 was almost … tons, which is …%
higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of imported
products on the rails market was …% of the total market.
Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the rails market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast for
2013 -2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario)
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
6.2. Structure of the rails market in Russia: production, exports,
imports, consumption
The volume of imports of rails in 2012 was about … tons, which was …% of the total market
volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented below.
Table 6. Volume and dynamics of the rails market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast
until 2017, in thousands of tons
2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
Volume of
production In units
… … … … … … … … …
In %, to the
previous year
…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%
Volume of exports
In units … … … … … … … … …
In %, to the
previous
year
…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%
Volume of imports
In units … … … … … … … … …
In %, to
the previous
year
…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%
Volume of total supply
In units … … … … … … … … …
In %, to
the previous
year
…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%
Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 6. Volume and dynamics of the rails market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast
until 2017, in thousands of tons
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
Production Consumption
Exports Imports
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
7. Characteristics of the domestic
production of rails in Russia in 2007 -
2012
…
7.1 Volume and dynamics of rails production in 2007 - 2012
In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previous
year.
Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 8 Rails production in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of tons
Characteristics of domestic production
- Volume and dynamics by type of
product
- Production capacities
- Structure of production
- Main producers and their market shares
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 9 Rails production in 2011 - 2012, in thousands of tons and in %, to the
previous year
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
7.6 The main manufacturers of rails and their corresponding
market shares
The main manufacturers of rails in Russia in 2011 were Company A, Company B, and
Company C. They produced …, …, and … tons, respectively. They were followed by Company
D (… tons, equal to …% of the total production) and Company E (… tons - …%).
Table 16. Characteristics of the largest manufacturers of pig iron in Russia in 2010
- 2011, in thousands of tons
Manufacturer Region
Production
of rails, in
tons
Market
share
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
… … … …
OTHERS … …
TOTAL … …
Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
…
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
8. Characteristics of rails prices 8.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of rails
Manufacturers’ prices of rails have been fluctuating a lot in the last 5 years – from … RUR/ton in 2007, through … RUR/ton in 2009 to …
RUR/ton in December 2012. In 2012, the prices were lower in …, when they were equal to … RUR/ton. They reached their highest value
in …, when they were … RUR/ton, which was …% more, compared to the analogical period of the previous year.
Table 20. Average manufacturers’ prices1 of rails in Russia in January 2007 – November 2012
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
In RUR/ ton
In RUR/ ton
In RUR/ ton
In RUR/ ton
In RUR/ ton
In % to analogical period of the
previous year
In % to December of the previous
year
In % to the
previous
month
In RUR/ ton
In % to analogical
period of the previous
year
In % to December of the previous
year
In % to the
previous
month
January … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
February … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
March … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
April … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
May … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
June … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
July … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
August … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
September … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
October … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
November … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
December … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%
Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”) 1 Manufacturers’ prices – subject to registration, as a rule, are the actual prices of produced and shipped in the current month production for the domestic market (excluding value added tax, excise duty and other taxes not included in the cost).
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
9. Characteristics of the imports of
rails to the Russian market 9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian imports of rails
…
The volume of Russian imports of rails in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of rails was
imported in …, when were imported … tons.
Table 22. Dynamics of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation in
January-December 2011, in tons
Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month
January …
February … …%
March … …%
April … …%
May … …%
June … …%
July … …%
August … …%
September … …%
October … …%
November … …%
December … …%
Total …
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation in January-
December 2011, in tons
9.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported
rails on the territory of the Russian Federation
Country A was the leader in terms of imports of rails (in physical terms) in 2011, with a
share of …% of the total. The country imported … tons of rails in 2011. The second place
was taken by Country B, which in 2011 imported … tons of rails (a share of …%,
respectively). In the third place was Country C with a share of …%.
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation by
manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms
Table 24. Volume of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation by
manufacturing countries in 2011, in tons
Country of origin Net weight, in tons Share, in %
Country A … …%
Country B … …%
Country C … …%
Country D … …%
Country E … …%
OTHERS … …%
TOTAL … …%
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
9.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the rails, imported to
the Russian Federation
Company A was the leader in terms of imports of rails (in physical terms) in 2011, with a
share of …% of the total. The company imported … tons of rails in 2011. The second place
was taken by Company B, which in 2011 imported … tons of rails (a share of …%,
respectively). In the third place was Company C with a share of …%.
25.0%
20.8%
16.7%
12.5%
8.3%
16.7%
Country A
Country B
Country C
Country D
Country E
OTHERS
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation by
manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms
Table 26. Volume of the imports of rails in the Russian Federation by
manufacturing companies in 2011, in tons
Manufacturing company Net weight, in tons Share, in %
Company A … …%
Company B … …%
Company C … …%
Company D … …%
Company E … …%
OTHERS … …%
TOTAL … …%
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
25.0%
20.8%
16.7%
12.5%
8.3%
16.7%
Company A
Company B
Company C
Company D
Company E
OTHERS
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
10. Characteristics of the Russian
exports of rails 10.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of rails
…
The volume of Russian exports of rails in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of rails was
exported in …, when were exported … tons.
Table 31. Dynamics of the exports of rails in the Russian Federation in
January-December 2011, in tons
Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month
January …
February … …%
March … …%
April … …%
May … …%
June … …%
July … …%
August … …%
September … …%
October … …%
November … …%
December … …%
Total …
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 27. Dynamics of the exports of rails in the Russian Federation in January-
December 2011, in tons
10.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of rails
In 2011, the main recipient country of the Russian exports of rails was Country A. Its share
in physical terms was …%. It was then followed by Country B (…%) and Country C (…%).
To Country D and Country E were exported …% and …%, respectively. The combined share
of the other countries is …%.
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 29. Structure of the Russian exports of rails by recipient countries in 2011 in
physical terms
Table 33. Volume of the Russian exports of rails by recipient countries in 2011, in
tons
Recipient country Net weight, in tons Share, in %
Country A … …%
Country B … …%
Country C … …%
Country D … …%
Country E … …%
OTHERS … …%
TOTAL … …%
Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
…
25.0%
20.8%
16.7%
12.5%
8.3%
16.7%
Country A
Country B
Country C
Country D
Country E
OTHERS
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
12. Characteristics of consumption
of rails 12.1. Volume and dynamics of consumption of rails in 2008 -
2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017
The volume of consumption of rails in 2012 was … tons, which was …% more, compared to
2011. In 2011 was noted the largest drop in the consumption of rails in recent years - a
decline of …% to … thousand tons. Another decline in recent years was observed in 2009,
when the growth rate was …%, compared to 2008. At the end of 2012, the consumption of
rails almost reached the level in 2010, but the growth is not yet possible to reach the pre-
crisis levels of 2007 - 2008.
According to forecasts, the favorable development of the consuming industries can help
consumption of rails increase in the next few years with rates of …-…% annually. Thus, by
2017, the consumption can reach … million tons. The demand for rails in the country will be
met, as before, by the Russian manufacturers, who account for over …% of the market.
Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 40. Dynamics of consumption of rails in the Russian Federation in 2008 –
2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
12.2. Structure of consumption of rails by industries
Currently, the largest shares in the consumption of rails are taken by Industry A (…%) and
Industry B (…%). Industry C accounts for about … of the market, while Industry D
consumes about …% of the rails in Russia.
Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 42. Structure of consumption of rails by industries in 2012
35%
37%
10%
8%
10% Industry A Industry B
Industry C Industry D
Others
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
12.3. Balance between production and consumption of rails
In the forecasted balance between production and consumption are used estimates of the
consumption of rails and projections for increase in production.
Throughout the forecast horizon, 2013 – 2017, there is a positive balance, calculated as the
difference between production and consumption. The surplus on the market, as before, will
be exported, mainly to the countries of the Customs Union, where most purchases are in
made in Kazakhstan.
Table 1. Balance between production and consumption on the rails
market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons
Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Production … … … … … … … … … …
Consumption … … … … … … … … … …
Balance
(Production-
Consumption)
… … … … … … … … … …
Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)
Fig. 47. Balance between production and consumption on the rails market in
Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons
20082009
20102011
20122013F
2014F2015F
2016F2017F
Consumption
Production
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
About IndexBox "IndexBox" is a leading company in the sphere of marketing research and business
consulting. We carry out marketing research studies, prepare business plans, build business
models and consult on questions about marketing and sales.
Our clients are big Russian and foreign companies:
Marketing research
Our specialization - the study of consumer and industrial markets, segments of B2C and
B2B. Among the methods used: desk research, consumer surveys, expert surveys,
competitive analysis, sales audit, a wide range of qualitative market research products and
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tasks of each project. System planning and operational monitoring of the industry, created a
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We are professionally engaged in developing business plans, feasibility studies, investment
memoranda, conduct financial analysis of enterprises and prepare analysis for transactions
M & A. Business plans developed by IndexBox, contain a complete financial model for the
further implementation of the project, all calculations are based on marketing information,
which is permanently collected and analyzed for over 7 years. Documents comply with the
standards of Russian and foreign banks, the projects have market feasibility and realistic
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We develop strategic development for brands, products, separate business units and
industry. Generally, programs include product, pricing, marketing and communication
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Market Research Russia: Rails Market. July 2012 (Demo-version)
strategy. Projects in the field of strategic marketing are relevant to large enterprises,
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