russia ammonia market

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Demo-Version

Russia: Ammonia

Market

Analysis and Forecast to 2017

March 2013

Marketing Research

http://www.russianmarketreport.com/

from 29 IndexBox Marketing © 2012 www.indexbox.ru

Market Research Russia: Ammonia Market. March 2013 (Demo-version)

Brief Overview

The report on the Russian ammonia market contains:

Analysis and forecast of market dynamics;

Structure of consumption by region;

Analysis of domestic production, market shares of the main market players;

Analysis of exports and imports;

Analysis of factors, influencing the development of the market;

Analysis of the state of the consuming industries;

Assessment and forecast of market development;

Financial and economic profiles of the leading companies in the industry.

Methodology:

Expert interviews with top managers of the largest players on the market;

Analysis of information, received from the main market participants;

An analysis of statistical information:

o Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat);

o The Federal Customs Service (FTS);

o The Ministry of Economic Development;

o The Federal Tax Service;

o Industry associations.

The report contains information on the following commodity groups:

Anhydrous ammonia;

Ammonia in aqueous solution.

The report will allow you to:

1. Identify key indicators of the market, build your own business forecasts, based on

market data;

2. Evaluate the growth potential and threats in the market.

Key figures presented in the report on the Russian ammonia market:

Volumes of production, exports and imports;

Indicators of market development;

Consumption indicators.

The report contains the consensus market forecast based on the average value of the

forecasts of market participants. As market experts are considered: manufacturers,

importers, wholesale distributors, high-volume consumers, professional associations and

unions, and trade publications. The experts, participating in the survey, are provided with

special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




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verify all secondary information used in the report.

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the economy. Cross-analysis of related industries enables our clients to get a

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Research Design

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the Russian ammonia market and build a

forecast of the industry in the medium term.

Geography of the research: Russia

Methodology

1. Analysis of secondary market data:

Secondary data refers to data from the Internet (industry portals, competitors’ sites,

shopping sites, articles and reviews, reference materials), specialized publications, state and

private media companies, marketing agencies, commercial databases, “IndexBox

Marketing” own research.

2. Analysis of Materials from Market Participants (price lists, brochures, etc.):

Data collection from market participants is needed to analyze the specifics of the market

and the parties involved in it, their pricing and assortment policy. Data on market

participants is gathered during the analysis of secondary information, and also by sending

requests for price lists and other presentation materials.

3. Expert Interviews with Market Participants

The analysis of secondary information is completed by expert interviews with

representatives of market participant companies – manufacturers and trading companies.

Our approach to the estimation

The consensus market forecast is the average value of the forecasts of market participants

(experts).

Experts

As market experts are considered: manufacturers, importers, wholesale distributors, high-

volume consumers, professional associations and unions, and trade publications. Expert

opinions are collected during telephone interviews conducted by IndexBox on a regular

basis (the standard is every six months, but can be more often, based on a special request

or under conditions of high volatility in the market). IndexBox has created an extensive

database of experts within key industries. The experts, participating in the survey, are

provided with special conditions on the purchase of the reports.




Accuracy of forecasts

The accuracy of forecasts is verified by experts in the given industry, based on the historical

period (3 years). In accordance with this accuracy, each expert weighs out the forecasts to

create the overall average forecast

Indicators

1. Consumption: Consumption is the main index estimated by our experts and features

the dynamics of consumption in real terms in the short to medium term. Experts give

an estimate of the potential volume of consumption in accordance with their

expectations and production plans (for manufacturers).

2. Internal production: It is based on the projected volume of consumption and production

capacity in any given industry, assessing, of course, and factoring in the dynamics of

domestic production.

3. Imports and Exports: Takes into account the retrospective dynamics of export-import

operations, strengths and weaknesses of the domestic production, changes in

legislation, the macroeconomic situation in the countries of the supplier (beneficiary) of

a product, an assessment of the dynamics of imports and exports.




Table of Contents 1. Executive summary

2. Research design

3. Classification of ammonia

4. Characteristics of the Russian ammonia market in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for

2012 - 2017

4.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian ammonia market in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for

2012 - 2017

4.2. Structure of the ammonia market: production, exports, imports, consumption

5. Characteristics of the domestic production of ammonia in 2005 - 2011. Forecast

for 2012 - 2017

5.1. Volume and dynamics of the production of ammonia in 2005 - 2011

5.2. Structure of the production of ammonia by regions of the Russian Federation

5.3. Manufacturing capacities and their level of loading

5.4. Level of concentration of production and characteristics of competition on the

market

5.5. Main manufacturers of ammonia and their corresponding market shares

5.5.1. OJSC “OHK “Uralkhim”

5.5.2. OJSC “Akron”

5.5.3. OJSC “SIBUR-Minudobreniya”

5.5.4. OJSC “Togliattiazot”

5.5.5. OJSC “Evrokhim”

5.5.6. “FosAgro”

5.5.7. OJSC “Kuibyshevazot”

5.5.8. OJSC “Minudobreniya”

5.6. Investment projects in the industry

6. Characteristics of the prices of ammonia

6.1. Dynamics of the manufacturers’ prices of ammonia in 2005 - 2011

6.2. Comparison of manufacturers’ prices of ammonia by Federal Districts of the

Russian Federation

7. Characteristics of the imports of ammonia to the Russian market

7.1. Volume and dynamics of the imports of ammonia

7.2. Manufacturing countries, importing ammonia to the territory of the Russian

Federation

7.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the ammonia, imported to the Russian

Federation

7.4. Russian companies, recipients of the imports of ammonia

7.5. Structure of the imports of ammonia by recipient regions of the Russian Federation

8. Characteristics of the Russian exports of ammonia

8.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of ammonia

8.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of ammonia

8.3. Manufacturing companies, supplying ammonia for exports




8.4. Sending regions of the Russian exports of ammonia

9. Factors, influencing the development of the ammonia market

9.1. State of the agricultural industry

9.2. State of the chemical industry

10. Characteristics of the consumption of ammonia

10.1. Volume and dynamics of the consumption of ammonia in 2005 - 2011. Forecast

for 2012 - 2017

10.2. Volume and structure of the consumption of ammonia by Federal Districts of the

Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011. Forecast for 2012 - 2017

10.3.Structure of the consumption of ammonia by consuming industries in 2005 - 2011.

Forecast for 2012 - 2017

10.4.Balance between production and consumption of ammonia in 2005 - 2011

11. Forecast for the development of the ammonia market in 2012 - 2017

11.1.Evaluation of the potential volume of supply of ammonia in 2012 - 2017

11.2. Evaluation of the potential volume of supply of ammonia after Russia’s accession

to the WTO

Appendix 1. Profiles of the leading manufacturers

• Contact data

• Registration data

• Company management

• Daughter companies

• Main shareholders

• Balance sheet of the company

• Profit and loss statement of the company

• Main financial indicators of the company




Data, presented in Tables

• Dynamics of the ammonia market in 2007 - 2017

• Production of ammonia in 2005 - 2011, in thousands of tons

• Volume of production of ammonia by types in 2011, in thousands of tons

• Production of ammonia by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in 2005 - 2011, in

thousands of tons

• Usage of the annual average capacities for the production of ammonia in 2005 - 2011 by

regions of the Russian Federation, in %

• Average manufacturers’ prices of ammonia in the Russian Federation in January 2007 -

2011

• Volume of the imports of ammonia by manufacturing countries in 2011, in thousands of

tons

• Volume of the imports of ammonia by manufacturing companies in 2011, in thousands of

tons

• Volume of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation by importing companies in

2011, in thousands of tons

• Volume of the imports of ammonia by recipient regions of the Russian Federation in 2011,

in thousands of tons

• Volume of the Russian exports of ammonia by recipient countries in 2011, in thousands of

tons

• Volume of the Russian exports of ammonia by manufacturing companies in 2011, in

thousands of tons

• Volume of the Russian exports of ammonia by sending regions in 2011, in thousands of

tons

• Indicators of the agricultural industry in 2008 - 2011

• Indicators of the state of the chemical industry in 2008 - 2011

• Forecast for the volumes of consumption of ammonia until 2017 by Federal Districts of the

Russian Federation




Data, presented in Figures

• Volume of supply on the ammonia market in 2007 - 2017


• Production of ammonia in January 2008 - 2011, in %, to the analogical period of the

previous year


• Structure of the production of ammonia in 2011 by types, in thousands of tons

• Structure of the production of ammonia by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in

2011

• Structure of the production of ammonia by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in

2005 - 2011

• Capacities for the production of ammonia by Federal Districts of the Russian Federation in

2011, in thousands of tons

• Level of usage of the annual average manufacturing capacities for the production of

ammonia in 2000-2011, in %

• Commissioning of manufacturing capacities for the production of ammonia in the Russian

Federation in 2000 - 2011, in thousands of tons

• Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of ammonia in the Russian Federation in

2010

• Indexes of the average manufacturers’ prices of ammonia in the Russian Federation in

2011

• Dynamics of the average manufacturers’ prices of ammonia in the Russian Federation in

January 2009 - 2011, deviation in %, to the analogical period of the previous year

• Comparison of the average manufacturers’ prices of ammonia by Federal Districts of the

Russian Federation, in 2011

• Dynamics of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation in 2011, in thousands of

tons

• Structure of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation by manufacturing countries

in 2011

• Structure of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation by manufacturing

companies in 2011

• Structure of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation by importing companies

• Structure of the imports of ammonia by recipient regions of the Russian Federation in

2011

• Dynamics of the Russian exports of ammonia in 2011, in thousands of tons

• Structure of the Russian exports of ammonia by recipient countries in 2011

• Structure of the Russian exports of ammonia by manufacturing companies in 2011

• Structure of the Russian exports of ammonia by sending regions in 2011

• Indicators of the state of the agricultural industry in 2008 - 2011

• Indicators of the state of the chemical industry in 2008 - 2011

• Dynamics of the consumption of ammonia in the Russian Federation in 2009 - 2017, in

thousands of tons




Executive Summary*

…

The volume of supply on the Russian ammonia market in 2012 was almost … tons, which is

…% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of

imported products on the ammonia market was …%.

The volume of production of ammonia in 2012 was … tons, which is …% higher than the

volume of production in 2011.

The largest share (…%) of all ammonia manufactured in the Russian Federation in 2012

belongs to the … Federal District.

In 2012, the import volume of ammonia in Russia amounted to … tons in physical terms and

to … thousand USD in value terms.

In 2012, the volume of the Russian exports of ammonia was … tons, which was equal to …

thousand USD in value terms.

…

*The information provided from this point on in this demo version is for illustrative purposes

only, so that you can get a general overview of how our reports look like. If you need more

information, you can contact us at: [email protected].

Key figures and

conclusions

about the market

mailto:[email protected]




6. Characteristics of the Russian

ammonia market

...

6.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian ammonia market in

2007 - 2012. Forecast for 2012 – 2017

The volume of supply on the Russian ammonia market in 2012 was almost … tons, which is

…% higher than the the same figure for 2011. It should be noted that the volume of

imported products on the ammonia market was …% of the total market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 1. Volume of supply on the ammonia market in 2008 - 2012 and forecast

for 2013 -2017, in thousands of tons (base scenario)




6.2. Structure of the ammonia market in Russia: production,

exports, imports, consumption

The volume of imports of ammonia in 2012 was about … tons, which was …% of the total

market volume. A more detailed analysis of the imports and exports is presented below.

Table 6. Volume and dynamics of the ammonia market in 2008 - 2012 and

forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

2009 2010 2011F 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Volume of

production In units

… … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of exports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to the

previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of imports

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Volume of total supply

In units … … … … … … … … …

In %, to

the previous

year

…% …% …% …% …% …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)




Source: Data (“Rosstat”, “FTS”, Expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 6. Volume and dynamics of the ammonia market in 2008 - 2012 and

forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F

Production Consumption

Exports Imports




7. Characteristics of the domestic

production of ammonia in Russia in

2007 - 2012

…

7.1 Volume and dynamics of ammonia production in 2007 -

2012

In 2011, the volume of production was higher than for the analogical period of the previous

year.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 8 Ammonia production in 2007 - 2011, in thousands of tons

Characteristics of domestic production

- Volume and dynamics by type of

product

- Production capacities

- Structure of production

- Main producers and their market shares




Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 9 Ammonia production in 2011 - 2012, in thousands of tons and in %, to the

previous year




7.6 The main manufacturers of ammonia and their

corresponding market shares

The main manufacturers of ammonia in Russia in 2011 were Company A, Company B, and

Company C. They produced …, …, and … tons, respectively. They were followed by Company

D (… tons, equal to …% of the total production) and Company E (… tons - …%).

Table 16. Characteristics of the largest manufacturers of pig iron in Russia in 2010

- 2011, in thousands of tons

Manufacturer Region

Production

of ammonia,

in tons

Market

share

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

… … … …

OTHERS … …

TOTAL … …

Source: Data (Company data), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

…




8. Characteristics of ammonia prices 8.1. Dynamics of manufacturers’ prices of ammonia

Manufacturers’ prices of ammonia have been fluctuating a lot in the last 5 years – from … RUR/ton in 2007, through … RUR/ton in 2009

to … RUR/ton in December 2012. In 2012, the prices were lower in …, when they were equal to … RUR/ton. They reached their highest

value in …, when they were … RUR/ton, which was …% more, compared to the analogical period of the previous year.

Table 20. Average manufacturers’ prices1 of ammonia in Russia in January 2007 – November 2012

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical period of the

previous year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

In RUR/ ton

In % to analogical

period of the previous

year

In % to December of the previous

year

In % to the

previous

month

January … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

February … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

March … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

April … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

May … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

June … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

July … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

August … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

September … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

October … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

November … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

December … … … … … …% …% …% … …% …% …%

Source: Data (“Rosstat”), Analysis (“IndexBox”) 1 Manufacturers’ prices – subject to registration, as a rule, are the actual prices of produced and shipped in the current month production for the domestic market (excluding value added tax, excise duty and other taxes not included in the cost).




9. Characteristics of the imports of

ammonia to the Russian market 9.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian imports of

ammonia

…

The volume of Russian imports of ammonia in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of

ammonia was imported in …, when were imported … tons.

Table 22. Dynamics of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …

Source: Data (“FTS”), Analysis (“IndexBox”)





Fig. 18. Dynamics of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in tons

9.2. Manufacturing countries, leading suppliers of the imported

ammonia on the territory of the Russian Federation

Country A was the leader in terms of imports of ammonia (in physical terms) in 2011, with

a share of …% of the total. The country imported … tons of ammonia in 2011. The second

place was taken by Country B, which in 2011 imported … tons of ammonia (a share of …%,

respectively). In the third place was Country C with a share of …%.





Fig. 20. Structure of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011 in physical terms

Table 24. Volume of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing countries in 2011, in tons

Country of origin Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


9.3. Foreign companies, manufacturers of the ammonia, imported

to the Russian Federation

Company A was the leader in terms of imports of ammonia (in physical terms) in 2011, with

a share of …% of the total. The company imported … tons of ammonia in 2011. The second

place was taken by Company B, which in 2011 imported … tons of ammonia (a share of

…%, respectively). In the third place was Company C with a share of …%.

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS





Fig. 22. Structure of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011 in physical terms

Table 26. Volume of the imports of ammonia in the Russian Federation by

manufacturing companies in 2011, in tons

Manufacturing company Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Company A … …%

Company B … …%

Company C … …%

Company D … …%

Company E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Company A

Company B

Company C

Company D

Company E

OTHERS




10. Characteristics of the Russian

exports of ammonia 10.1. Volume and dynamics of the Russian exports of

ammonia

…

The volume of Russian exports of ammonia in 2011 was … tons. The largest amount of

ammonia was exported in …, when were exported … tons.

Table 31. Dynamics of the exports of ammonia in the Russian Federation in

January-December 2011, in tons

Month Quantity, in thousands of tons In %, to the previous month

January …

February … …%

March … …%

April … …%

May … …%

June … …%

July … …%

August … …%

September … …%

October … …%

November … …%

December … …%

Total …






Fig. 27. Dynamics of the exports of ammonia in the Russian Federation in January-

December 2011, in tons

10.2. Recipient countries of the Russian exports of ammonia

In 2011, the main recipient country of the Russian exports of ammonia was Country A. Its

share in physical terms was …%. It was then followed by Country B (…%) and Country C

(…%). To Country D and Country E were exported …% and …%, respectively. The combined

share of the other countries is …%.





Fig. 29. Structure of the Russian exports of ammonia by recipient countries in

2011 in physical terms

Table 33. Volume of the Russian exports of ammonia by recipient countries in

2011, in tons

Recipient country Net weight, in tons Share, in %

Country A … …%

Country B … …%

Country C … …%

Country D … …%

Country E … …%

OTHERS … …%

TOTAL … …%


…

25.0%

20.8%

16.7%

12.5%

8.3%

16.7%

Country A

Country B

Country C

Country D

Country E

OTHERS





12. Characteristics of consumption

of ammonia 12.1. Volume and dynamics of consumption of ammonia in

2008 - 2012. Forecast for 2013 - 2017

The volume of consumption of ammonia in 2012 was … tons, which was …% more,

compared to 2011. In 2011 was noted the largest drop in the consumption of ammonia in

recent years - a decline of …% to … thousand tons. Another decline in recent years was

observed in 2009, when the growth rate was …%, compared to 2008. At the end of 2012,

the consumption of ammonia almost reached the level in 2010, but the growth is not yet

possible to reach the pre-crisis levels of 2007 - 2008.

According to forecasts, the favorable development of the consuming industries can help

consumption of ammonia increase in the next few years with rates of …-…% annually. Thus,

by 2017, the consumption can reach … million tons. The demand for ammonia in the

country will be met, as before, by the Russian manufacturers, who account for over …% of

the market.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 40. Dynamics of consumption of ammonia in the Russian Federation in

2008 – 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons






12.2. Structure of consumption of ammonia by industries

Currently, the largest shares in the consumption of ammonia are taken by Industry A (…%)

and Industry B (…%). Industry C accounts for about … of the market, while Industry D

consumes about …% of the ammonia in Russia.

Source: Data (“Rosstat”, expert opinion), Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 42. Structure of consumption of ammonia by industries in 2012

35%

37%

10%

8%

10% Industry A Industry B

Industry C Industry D

Others




12.3. Balance between production and consumption of ammonia

In the forecasted balance between production and consumption are used estimates of the

consumption of ammonia and projections for increase in production.

Throughout the forecast horizon, 2013 – 2017, there is a positive balance, calculated as the

difference between production and consumption. The surplus on the market, as before, will

be exported, mainly to the countries of the Customs Union, where most purchases are in

made in Kazakhstan.

Table 1. Balance between production and consumption on the

ammonia market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in

thousands of tons

Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Production … … … … … … … … … …

Consumption … … … … … … … … … …

Balance

(Production-

Consumption)

… … … … … … … … … …

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Source: Analysis (“IndexBox”)

Fig. 47. Balance between production and consumption on the ammonia

market in Russia in 2008 - 2012 and forecast until 2017, in thousands of tons

20082009

20102011

20122013F

2014F2015F

2016F2017F

Consumption

Production






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