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COMMITMENT PROBLEMS
PSC/IR 265: CIVIL WAR AND INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMS WILLIAM SPANIEL
WJSPANIEL.WORDPRESS.COM/PSCIR-265
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Overview
1. Commitment problems
2. Breaking Bad
3. Yugoslavia’s Meltdown
4. When do commitment problems occur?
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San Diego
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San Diego
Rochester
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car => tour across America
Rochester
San Diego
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San Diego
Rochester
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San Diego
Rochester
Arlington
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San Diego
Rochester
Arlington
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My Concern.
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San Diego El Paso
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San Diego El Paso
Sup, bro?
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Your car is full of stuff covered with a blanket. You must be a drug dealer. I’m going to search your vehicle now.
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Your car is full of stuff covered with a blanket. You must be a drug dealer. I’m going to search your vehicle now.
Heck no! Have you ever heard of illegal search and seizure?
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Your car is full of stuff covered with a blanket. You must be a drug dealer. I’m going to search your vehicle now.
You can either let me do a quick search, or we can wait a half hour for the K-9 unit to arrive. It’s hot. Waiting would be worse for both of us. I promise to conduct a quick search.
Heck no! Have you ever heard of illegal search and seizure?
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Your car is full of stuff covered with a blanket. You must be a drug dealer. I’m going to search your vehicle now.
You can either let me do a quick search, or we can wait a half hour for the K-9 unit to arrive. It’s hot. Waiting would be worse for both of us. I promise to conduct a quick search.
Heck no! Have you ever heard of illegal search and seizure?
Thanks, I’ll wait.
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What is a time-inconsistency commitment problem?
1. An outcome exits that is better for all than the outcome that actually occurs.
2. If one player could credibly commit to a certain action in the future, the players would reach the mutually preferable outcome.
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Credibility
• A threat or promise is credible if and only if an individual has incentive to follow through on the threat or promise when the action must be made.
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Your car is full of stuff covered with a blanket. You must be a drug dealer. I’m going to search your vehicle now.
You can either let me do a quick search, or we can wait a half hour for the K-9 unit to arrive. It’s hot. Waiting would be worse for both of us. I promise to conduct a quick search.
Heck no! Have you ever heard of illegal search and seizure?
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Your car is full of stuff covered with a blanket. You must be a drug dealer. I’m going to search your vehicle now.
You can either let me do a quick search, or we can wait a half hour for the K-9 unit to arrive. It’s hot. Waiting would be worse for both of us. I promise to conduct a quick search.
Heck no! Have you ever heard of illegal search and seizure?
Thanks, I’ll wait. (Translated: Bro, you’re not even remotely credible. Bro.)
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TL;DR: Don’t trust the police if you
didn’t call for them.
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Overview
1. Commitment problems
2. Breaking Bad
3. Yugoslavia’s Meltdown
4. When do commitment problems occur?
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This is a common problem.
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Meet Walter White.
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He’s a meth cooker without
a distributor.
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He’s also a mild-mannered high
school chemistry teacher. In other
words, he is completely clueless.
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He’s also a mild-mannered high
school chemistry teacher. In other
words, he is completely clueless.
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Meet Tuco Salamanca.
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Tuco knows
what’s up.
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Hey Walter, why don’t you give me some of
your meth. I promise I will split the revenue
with you.
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Sounds great! Nothing could
possibly go wrong.
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Overview
1. Commitment problems
2. Breaking Bad
3. Yugoslavia’s Meltdown
4. When do commitment problems occur?
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World War II
• Nazis occupy Yugoslavia
• Divide and conquer strategy
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The Ustase
• Yugoslavia’s largest ethnic group is Serb
• Nazis prop up a Croat government—the Ustase
• Ustase commits atrocities against Serbs
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Cold War Yugoslavia
• Communist government led by Josip Tito
• Relative ethnic peace • Motto: Yugoslavia has seven
neighbors, six republics, five nations, four languages, three religions, two scripts, and one goal: to live in brotherhood and unity
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Spoiler Alert
• Cold War is going to end and Yugoslavia is going to break up
• There will be blood
• Why?
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Unsatisfying Explanation
• Serbs and Croats have always hated each other!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Unsatisfying Explanation
• Serbs and Croats have always hated each other!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
– Then why weren’t they killing each other during communist rule?
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Unsatisfying Explanation
• Serbs and Croats have always hated each other!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
– Then why weren’t they killing each other during communist rule?
– Hate crimes as a strategy
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Unsatisfying Explanation
• It’s because communism magically suppressed ethnic tensions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Unsatisfying Explanation
• It’s because communism magically suppressed ethnic tensions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
– But Croats and Serbs weren’t killing each other most of the time before communism
– Intermarriage rates were at their highest
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Croatia in Transition
• Gains independence in 1991
• Holds democratic elections
• Franjo Tudjman runs on nationalist platform, wins
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Lighting a Powder Keg
• Croatian government places these patches on police uniforms
• Serb police in Croatia are not very happy about this
• Serbs in Croatia declare their own independence
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Proximate vs. Underlying Cause
• Patch is not a useful explanation for the conflict
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Proximate vs. Underlying Cause
• Patch is not a useful explanation for the conflict
– If it was, the policy recommendation would be “don’t put patches on police uniforms”
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Proximate vs. Underlying Cause
• Shifting power between the parties is
– Croatian government had not yet solidified power
– Serbs had a temporary strength
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Serbs Have Help
• Slobodan Milošević sends Serbian forces to assist Serbs in Croatia
• …but Croatia eventually wins
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Overview
1. Commitment problems
2. Breaking Bad
3. Yugoslavia’s Meltdown
4. When do commitment problems occur?
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Question
• What determines:
1. the cost of war?
2. the extent of abuse?
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A Couple Answers
• What determines:
1. the cost of war?
• economic interdependence
2. the extent of abuse?
• extent of power shift
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A Couple Answers
• What determines:
1. the cost of war?
• economic interdependence (now)
2. the extent of abuse?
• extent of power shift (after the midterm)
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Hajj, Old School
• Major 20th Century innovation: flying to Mecca
• Before: Sailing
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Ethnic Exposure
• Port cities had significantly more ethnic mixing
• Muslims provided an important complementary economic service: trade to the west
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Incentives to Cooperate
• Muslims brought money to Hindus in these port cities
• Hindus could not easily expropriate this wealth
– Not easy to magically create a trading business
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Lasting Effects
• Port cities substantially more ethnically mixed
• Yet, from 1850-1950, port cities had 80% fewer race riots than non-port cities