APollofRegisteredVotersonGuamRegardingthe2018ElectionforGovernor,GovernmentOperationsandIssues
Purpose:CommunityPerspective
In2018thepeopleofGuamwillvoteforanewgovernortoleadourislandandaddresssocialandeconomicissuethatareofconcerntothepeopleofGuam.ApollwasconductedfromOct.23toNov.6,2017tomeasurethepositionofarepresentativesampleofregisteredvotersonGuamregarding,governmentoperations,socialissuesandtheirchoiceforgovernor.Thepollalsoincludes;reasons,demographicinformationandstatisticaldataregardinglocalresident’spositionontheaforementionedissue.Thissurveywasconductedbythegovernmentstudentsinconjunction,withthemathdepartmentatSimonSanchezHighSchool.
Sample/Method:RegisteredVoters18andOveronGuam
AsystematicsampleofsurveyparticipantsweregatheredfromlocalGuamphonebooks.
EXAMPLE:Studentswereaskedtorandomlyselectaletterfromthephonebook.Theyweretheninstructedtoselectevery25thnumberinthephonebookfromtheirdesignatedletter.Afteraphonenumberhasbeenselectedtheyweretoaddanumbersothename,villageetc.wouldbeconcealed.555-1234wouldbechangedto555-1235,preservingtheidentityoftherespondentandthevalidityofthesample.OnlystudentsinthegovernmentclassesandtheAPmathclasswereallowedtoconductthephoneinterviews.Eachstudentwaseducatedonthepollingprocess,givenapreparedscriptandquestionswhereformulatedbytheteachersandstudentsoftheparticipatingclasses.(seeattachedscriptandquestions)
TotalPeoplePolled:N=957
Onthe1stquestion:18andaregisteredvoteronGuamOfthe(N=957)participantsinthesurvey,100%reportedtheywereovertheageof18andaregisteredvoteronGuam.Onthe2ndquestion:GenderOftheN=957peoplepolled415or44%ofrespondentsweremaleand542or56%werefemale.
Ontheresultsofquestion3:AgeA. 18-35=289or30.2%B. 36-55=392or41%C. 56-Over=276or28.8%
30.2%
41.0%
28.8%
Ages
18-35 36-55 56andover
Ontheresultsofquestion4:EthnicityCHAMORRO=397or41.5%
FILIPINO=341or35.6%
OTHER=219or22.9%
41.5%
35.6%
22.9%
Ethnicity
Chamorro Filipino Other
Onquestion5:Whatissueareyoumostconcernedabout?OftheN=957peoplepolled,287or30%said,educationwasthetopissueofconcernforthem,while192or20.1%reportedcrimebeinganissueofconcern.Thehospitalwasaconcernfor142or14.8%ofthepeoplepolled,followedbygovernmentborrowingat127or13.3%.Roadimprovementscameinnextwith117or12.2%andtheAAFBlivefirerangewastheleastconcerningforGuamvotersat92or9.6%.
Education;30.0%
ThelivefirerangeatAAFB;9.6%
TheHospital;14.8%
GovernmentBorrowing;13.3%
RoadImprovements;12.2%
Crime;20.1%
MostConcerningIssue
Onquestion6:Whatdoyouthinkelectedofficialsshoulddotoimprovegovernmentoperations?OftheN=957peoplepolled309or32.3%said,creatingjobswouldimprovegovernmentoperations.266or27.8%said,thegovernmentshouldstopborrowingmoneyand211or22%saidusingtechnologywouldimprovegovernmentoperations.Just171or17.9%believereducingthesizeofgovernmentwouldimproveoperations.
17.9%
32.3%
22.0%
27.8%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Reducethesizeofgovernment
CreateJobs
Usetechnologytomodernizeefficiency
StopBorrowingMoney
ElectedOfficialsShouldDoToImproveGovernment
Onquestion7:WouldyoubewillingtopaymoreintaxesforuniversalhealthcareforallGuamresidents?OftheN=957peoplepolled498or52%saidNo,while459or48%said,yestheywouldbewillingtopaymoreintaxesforuniversalhealthcare.Onquestion8:Whichaspectdoyoufeelistheleastimportantwhenselectingacandidate?OftheN=957peoplepolled359or37.5%reportedfamilyrelationsasbeingtheleastimportantwhenselectingacandidate.Partyaffiliationfollowednextwith224or23.4%ofrespondentsindicatingitwastheleastimportant.220or23%ofrespondentssaid,advertisingwasnotimportantwhile,154or16.1%saidpocketmeetingswereunimportant.
23.4%
37.5%
23.0%
16.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
PartyAffiliation
FamilyRelations
Advertising
Pocket-Meetings
LeastImportantAspectWhenSlectingACandidate
Onquestion9:Iftheelectionforgovernorwereheldtodaywhowouldyouvotefor?OftheN=957registeredvoterspolled322or33.6%reportedbeingundecidedonwhotheywouldvotefornextyear.190or19.9%saidtheywouldvoteFrankAguoninasthenextgovernorwhile,187or19.5%said,theywouldvoteforRayTenorio.132or13.8%ofrespondentssaidtheywouldvoteforLouLeonGuerreroasthenextgovernorand126or13.2%willcastavoteforCarlGutierrez.
13.2%
13.8%
19.5%
19.9%
33.6%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
CarlGutierrez
LouLeonGuerrero
RayTenorio
FrankAguonJr.
Undecided
VotingForGovernorIfElectionWereHeldToday
ConclusionApollwasconductedfromOct.23toNov.6,2017tomeasurethepositionofregisteredvotersonGuamregarding,governmentoperations,socialissuesandtheirchoiceforgovernor.Thepollalsoincludes;reasons,demographicinformationandstatisticaldataregardinglocalresident’spositionontheaforementionedissue.Thissurveywasconductedbythegovernmentstudentsinconjunction,withthemathdepartmentatSimonSanchezHighSchool.Althoughnotascientificpoll,severalmethodswereusedtoincreasethevalidityofthesurvey(pleaseseesample/method).Ascriptwasstrictlyfollowedanddeviationfromtheassignedquestionswasprohibited.Alsothesamplesize,(N=957)waslargeenoughtoaccuratelyrepresentthe“universe”ofresidentsonGuam+-2.94%basedon150,000residents.Alldatacollectedwasturned-overtothemathdepartmentforanalysis.
Itisunderstood,thatpollsareaglimpseofthepublic’ssentimentonaparticularissue,ataparticularpointintimebut,someinterestinghypothesescanbesupportedfromtheresults.
A. Educationandcrimecontinuetobethetopissuesofconcernformanyinthecommunity.
B. Thegovernmentmustimproveoperationsbycreatingjobsforthepeopletoincreaseitstaxbaseanditmuststopborrowingmoney.
C. Candidatesmustrecognizethatfamilyrelationsandpartyaffiliationarenotanaspectvotersconsiderwhencastingavoteforpublicoffice.
D. Althoughearly,withtheelectionbeingayearaway,amajorityofregisteredvotersonGuamareundecidedaboutwhoshouldbethenextGovernorofGuam.ThereisnoclearfrontrunneratthistimebutanalysisindicatesafavorableoutcomeforFrankAguonJr.overRayTenoriobyarazor-thinmargin.
Duetotimelimitations,othergroupdemographicinformationcouldnotbeanalyzedforthisreport.CalculationresultsoftheN=957havebeenincludedinthisreportsappendixsectionforadditionaldemographicanalysis.Example:FilipinoandChamorroopinionsbasedonageregardingissuespresentedcanbeanalyzed.
1. Areyou18orolderandaregisteredvoterofGuam?(Ifyes,proceedtonextquestion.IfNO,saythankyouforyourparticipationthisconcludesoursurvey.)YES N=957
2. Male N=415
Female N=542TOTAL: N=957
3. Areyoubetweentheagesof 18-35 N=289 36-55 N=39256andover N=276TOTAL: N=957
4. Whatisyourethnicity?Chamorro N=397Filipino N=341Other N=219TOTAL: N=957
5. Whatissueareyoumostconcernedabout?
A. Education N=287B. ThelivefirerangeatAAFB N=92C. TheHospital N=142D. GovernmentBorrowing N=127E. RoadImprovements N=117F. Crime N=192
TOTAL: N=957
6. Whatdoyouthinkelectedofficialsshoulddotoimprovegovernmentoperations?A. Reducethesizeofgovernment N=171B. CreateJobs N=309C. Usetechnologytomodernizeefficiency N=211D. StopBorrowingMoney N=266
TOTAL: N=957
7. WouldyoubewillingtopaymoreintaxesforuniversalhealthcareforallGuamresidents?YES N=459NO N=498TOTAL: N=957
8. WhichaspectdoyoufeelistheleastimportantwhenselectingacandidateA. PartyAffiliation N=224B. FamilyRelations N=359C. Advertising N=220D. Pocket-Meetings N=154
TOTAL: N=957
9. IftheelectionforgovernorwereheldtodaywhowouldyouvoteforA. CarlGutierrez N=126B. LouLeonGuerrero N=132C. RayTenorio N=187D. FrankAguonJr. N=190E. Undecided N=322
TOTAL: N=957
SurveyQuestions
1. Areyou18orolderandaregisteredvoterofGuam?(Ifyes,proceedtonextquestion.IfNO,saythankyouforyourparticipationthisconcludesoursurvey.)YES
2. Male/Female
3. Areyoubetweentheagesof
18-35 36-55 56andover
4. Whatisyourethnicity?Chamorro Filipino Other
5. Whatissueareyoumostconcernedabout?
G. EducationH. ThelivefirerangeatAAFBI. TheHospitalJ. GovernmentBorrowingK. RoadImprovementsL. Crime
6. Whatdoyouthinkelectedofficialsshoulddotoimprovegovernmentoperations?
E. ReducethesizeofgovernmentF. CreateJobsG. UsetechnologytomodernizeefficiencyH. StopBorrowingMoney
7. WouldyoubewillingtopaymoreintaxesforuniversalhealthcareforallGuam
residents?
YES/NO
8. WhichaspectdoyoufeelistheleastimportantwhenselectingacandidateE. PartyAffiliationF. FamilyRelationsG. AdvertisingH. Pocket-Meetings
9. Iftheelectionforgovernorwereheldtodaywhowouldyouvotefor
F. CarlGutierrezG. LouLeonGuerreroH. RayTenorioI. FrankAguonJr.J. Undecided
REMEMBER:Sticktothescript!!!!
Goodeveningsir/ma’ammynameis_____________________.IamastudentatSSHSandweareconductingasurveyaspartofmygovernment/mathclass.
Doyouhave5minutestoanswerafewquestionsaboutourgovernment?Nophonenumbersoridentifyinginformationwillbeusedintheadministrationorpublicationofthissurvey.
(Ifyes,saythankyouandproceedtofirstquestion.Ifno,askifyoucancallthembackatalatertime.Writethenumberandtimeforcallback)
Thisisthefirstquestion.