APollofRegisteredVotersonGuamRegardingthe2018ElectionforGovernor,GovernmentOperationsandIssues

Purpose:CommunityPerspective

In2018thepeopleofGuamwillvoteforanewgovernortoleadourislandandaddresssocialandeconomicissuethatareofconcerntothepeopleofGuam.ApollwasconductedfromOct.23toNov.6,2017tomeasurethepositionofarepresentativesampleofregisteredvotersonGuamregarding,governmentoperations,socialissuesandtheirchoiceforgovernor.Thepollalsoincludes;reasons,demographicinformationandstatisticaldataregardinglocalresident’spositionontheaforementionedissue.Thissurveywasconductedbythegovernmentstudentsinconjunction,withthemathdepartmentatSimonSanchezHighSchool.

Sample/Method:RegisteredVoters18andOveronGuam

AsystematicsampleofsurveyparticipantsweregatheredfromlocalGuamphonebooks.

EXAMPLE:Studentswereaskedtorandomlyselectaletterfromthephonebook.Theyweretheninstructedtoselectevery25thnumberinthephonebookfromtheirdesignatedletter.Afteraphonenumberhasbeenselectedtheyweretoaddanumbersothename,villageetc.wouldbeconcealed.555-1234wouldbechangedto555-1235,preservingtheidentityoftherespondentandthevalidityofthesample.OnlystudentsinthegovernmentclassesandtheAPmathclasswereallowedtoconductthephoneinterviews.Eachstudentwaseducatedonthepollingprocess,givenapreparedscriptandquestionswhereformulatedbytheteachersandstudentsoftheparticipatingclasses.(seeattachedscriptandquestions)

TotalPeoplePolled:N=957

Onthe1stquestion:18andaregisteredvoteronGuamOfthe(N=957)participantsinthesurvey,100%reportedtheywereovertheageof18andaregisteredvoteronGuam.Onthe2ndquestion:GenderOftheN=957peoplepolled415or44%ofrespondentsweremaleand542or56%werefemale.

Ontheresultsofquestion3:AgeA. 18-35=289or30.2%B. 36-55=392or41%C. 56-Over=276or28.8%

30.2%

41.0%

28.8%

Ages

18-35 36-55 56andover

Ontheresultsofquestion4:EthnicityCHAMORRO=397or41.5%

FILIPINO=341or35.6%

OTHER=219or22.9%

41.5%

35.6%

22.9%

Ethnicity

Chamorro Filipino Other

Onquestion5:Whatissueareyoumostconcernedabout?OftheN=957peoplepolled,287or30%said,educationwasthetopissueofconcernforthem,while192or20.1%reportedcrimebeinganissueofconcern.Thehospitalwasaconcernfor142or14.8%ofthepeoplepolled,followedbygovernmentborrowingat127or13.3%.Roadimprovementscameinnextwith117or12.2%andtheAAFBlivefirerangewastheleastconcerningforGuamvotersat92or9.6%.

Education;30.0%

ThelivefirerangeatAAFB;9.6%

TheHospital;14.8%

GovernmentBorrowing;13.3%

RoadImprovements;12.2%

Crime;20.1%

MostConcerningIssue

Onquestion6:Whatdoyouthinkelectedofficialsshoulddotoimprovegovernmentoperations?OftheN=957peoplepolled309or32.3%said,creatingjobswouldimprovegovernmentoperations.266or27.8%said,thegovernmentshouldstopborrowingmoneyand211or22%saidusingtechnologywouldimprovegovernmentoperations.Just171or17.9%believereducingthesizeofgovernmentwouldimproveoperations.

17.9%

32.3%

22.0%

27.8%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

Reducethesizeofgovernment

CreateJobs

Usetechnologytomodernizeefficiency

StopBorrowingMoney

ElectedOfficialsShouldDoToImproveGovernment

Onquestion7:WouldyoubewillingtopaymoreintaxesforuniversalhealthcareforallGuamresidents?OftheN=957peoplepolled498or52%saidNo,while459or48%said,yestheywouldbewillingtopaymoreintaxesforuniversalhealthcare.Onquestion8:Whichaspectdoyoufeelistheleastimportantwhenselectingacandidate?OftheN=957peoplepolled359or37.5%reportedfamilyrelationsasbeingtheleastimportantwhenselectingacandidate.Partyaffiliationfollowednextwith224or23.4%ofrespondentsindicatingitwastheleastimportant.220or23%ofrespondentssaid,advertisingwasnotimportantwhile,154or16.1%saidpocketmeetingswereunimportant.

23.4%

37.5%

23.0%

16.1%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

PartyAffiliation

FamilyRelations

Advertising

Pocket-Meetings

LeastImportantAspectWhenSlectingACandidate

Onquestion9:Iftheelectionforgovernorwereheldtodaywhowouldyouvotefor?OftheN=957registeredvoterspolled322or33.6%reportedbeingundecidedonwhotheywouldvotefornextyear.190or19.9%saidtheywouldvoteFrankAguoninasthenextgovernorwhile,187or19.5%said,theywouldvoteforRayTenorio.132or13.8%ofrespondentssaidtheywouldvoteforLouLeonGuerreroasthenextgovernorand126or13.2%willcastavoteforCarlGutierrez.

13.2%

13.8%

19.5%

19.9%

33.6%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

CarlGutierrez

LouLeonGuerrero

RayTenorio

FrankAguonJr.

Undecided

VotingForGovernorIfElectionWereHeldToday

ConclusionApollwasconductedfromOct.23toNov.6,2017tomeasurethepositionofregisteredvotersonGuamregarding,governmentoperations,socialissuesandtheirchoiceforgovernor.Thepollalsoincludes;reasons,demographicinformationandstatisticaldataregardinglocalresident’spositionontheaforementionedissue.Thissurveywasconductedbythegovernmentstudentsinconjunction,withthemathdepartmentatSimonSanchezHighSchool.Althoughnotascientificpoll,severalmethodswereusedtoincreasethevalidityofthesurvey(pleaseseesample/method).Ascriptwasstrictlyfollowedanddeviationfromtheassignedquestionswasprohibited.Alsothesamplesize,(N=957)waslargeenoughtoaccuratelyrepresentthe“universe”ofresidentsonGuam+-2.94%basedon150,000residents.Alldatacollectedwasturned-overtothemathdepartmentforanalysis.

Itisunderstood,thatpollsareaglimpseofthepublic’ssentimentonaparticularissue,ataparticularpointintimebut,someinterestinghypothesescanbesupportedfromtheresults.

A. Educationandcrimecontinuetobethetopissuesofconcernformanyinthecommunity.

B. Thegovernmentmustimproveoperationsbycreatingjobsforthepeopletoincreaseitstaxbaseanditmuststopborrowingmoney.

C. Candidatesmustrecognizethatfamilyrelationsandpartyaffiliationarenotanaspectvotersconsiderwhencastingavoteforpublicoffice.

D. Althoughearly,withtheelectionbeingayearaway,amajorityofregisteredvotersonGuamareundecidedaboutwhoshouldbethenextGovernorofGuam.ThereisnoclearfrontrunneratthistimebutanalysisindicatesafavorableoutcomeforFrankAguonJr.overRayTenoriobyarazor-thinmargin.

Duetotimelimitations,othergroupdemographicinformationcouldnotbeanalyzedforthisreport.CalculationresultsoftheN=957havebeenincludedinthisreportsappendixsectionforadditionaldemographicanalysis.Example:FilipinoandChamorroopinionsbasedonageregardingissuespresentedcanbeanalyzed.

1. Areyou18orolderandaregisteredvoterofGuam?(Ifyes,proceedtonextquestion.IfNO,saythankyouforyourparticipationthisconcludesoursurvey.)YES N=957

2. Male N=415

Female N=542TOTAL: N=957

3. Areyoubetweentheagesof 18-35 N=289 36-55 N=39256andover N=276TOTAL: N=957

4. Whatisyourethnicity?Chamorro N=397Filipino N=341Other N=219TOTAL: N=957

5. Whatissueareyoumostconcernedabout?

A. Education N=287B. ThelivefirerangeatAAFB N=92C. TheHospital N=142D. GovernmentBorrowing N=127E. RoadImprovements N=117F. Crime N=192

TOTAL: N=957

6. Whatdoyouthinkelectedofficialsshoulddotoimprovegovernmentoperations?A. Reducethesizeofgovernment N=171B. CreateJobs N=309C. Usetechnologytomodernizeefficiency N=211D. StopBorrowingMoney N=266

TOTAL: N=957

7. WouldyoubewillingtopaymoreintaxesforuniversalhealthcareforallGuamresidents?YES N=459NO N=498TOTAL: N=957

8. WhichaspectdoyoufeelistheleastimportantwhenselectingacandidateA. PartyAffiliation N=224B. FamilyRelations N=359C. Advertising N=220D. Pocket-Meetings N=154

TOTAL: N=957

9. IftheelectionforgovernorwereheldtodaywhowouldyouvoteforA. CarlGutierrez N=126B. LouLeonGuerrero N=132C. RayTenorio N=187D. FrankAguonJr. N=190E. Undecided N=322

TOTAL: N=957

SurveyQuestions

1. Areyou18orolderandaregisteredvoterofGuam?(Ifyes,proceedtonextquestion.IfNO,saythankyouforyourparticipationthisconcludesoursurvey.)YES

2. Male/Female

3. Areyoubetweentheagesof

18-35 36-55 56andover

4. Whatisyourethnicity?Chamorro Filipino Other

5. Whatissueareyoumostconcernedabout?

G. EducationH. ThelivefirerangeatAAFBI. TheHospitalJ. GovernmentBorrowingK. RoadImprovementsL. Crime

6. Whatdoyouthinkelectedofficialsshoulddotoimprovegovernmentoperations?

E. ReducethesizeofgovernmentF. CreateJobsG. UsetechnologytomodernizeefficiencyH. StopBorrowingMoney

7. WouldyoubewillingtopaymoreintaxesforuniversalhealthcareforallGuam

residents?

YES/NO

8. WhichaspectdoyoufeelistheleastimportantwhenselectingacandidateE. PartyAffiliationF. FamilyRelationsG. AdvertisingH. Pocket-Meetings

9. Iftheelectionforgovernorwereheldtodaywhowouldyouvotefor

F. CarlGutierrezG. LouLeonGuerreroH. RayTenorioI. FrankAguonJr.J. Undecided

REMEMBER:Sticktothescript!!!!

Goodeveningsir/ma’ammynameis_____________________.IamastudentatSSHSandweareconductingasurveyaspartofmygovernment/mathclass.

Doyouhave5minutestoanswerafewquestionsaboutourgovernment?Nophonenumbersoridentifyinginformationwillbeusedintheadministrationorpublicationofthissurvey.

(Ifyes,saythankyouandproceedtofirstquestion.Ifno,askifyoucancallthembackatalatertime.Writethenumberandtimeforcallback)

Thisisthefirstquestion.