WORLD Climat NEWS

No. 3 June 1993

CONTENTS

JUNE 1993 No. 3

The Climate Agenda

Commission for Climatology

6

WCP-Water 7

A climate of co-operation 8

Climate system monitoring

World Climate Research Programme

n Ozone layer deficit in northern hemisphere

12

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

13

News and notes 14

Global Atmosphere Watch 15

The designations employed and the présentation of material in this publication do not imply the expres­sion of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organisa­tion concerning the legal status of any country, terri­tory, city or area, or ol its authorities, or concerning the delimitations of its frontiers or boundaries

jÇ^>\ Printed entirely on X3Ç7 recycled paper

Issued by the

World Meteorological Organization Geneva • Switzerland

WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

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WMO ®wm

THE WOKILID GMETEOROLÛCOCAL OK<GAINIDZATD<DN

Secretary-General: G.O.P.OBASI

THE SECRETARIAT OF THE ORGANIZATION IS LOCATED AT

I 41 AVENUE GlUSEPPE-MOTTA, GENEVA, SWITZERLAND.

The World Meteorological Congress

is the supreme body of the Organization. It brings together delegates of all Members once every four years to determine general policies for the fulfi lment of the purposes of the Organization.

The Executive Council

is composed of 36 directors of national Meteorological or Hydrometeorological Services serving in an individual capacity; it meets at least once a year to supervise the pro­grammes approved by Congress.

The purposes of WMO are:

• To facilitate world-wide co-operation in the establishment of networks of stations for the making of meteorological observations as well as hydrological and other geophysical observations related to meteorology, and to promote the establishment and maintenance of centres charged with the provision of meteorological and related services;

• To promote the establishment and maintenance of systems for the rapid exchange of meteorological and related information;

• To promote standardization of meteorological and relat­ed observations and to ensure the uniform publication of observations and statistics;

The six regional associations

are each composed of Members whose task it is to co­ordinate meteorological and related activities within their respective Regions.

The e ight technical commissions

are composed of experts designated by Members and are responsible for studying meteorological and hydro-logical operational systems, applications and research.

• To further the application of meteorology to aviation, shipping, water problems, agriculture and other human activities;

• To promote activities in operational hydrology and to further close co-operation between Meteorological and Hydrological Services;

• To encourage research and training in meteorology and, as appropriate, in related fields, and to assist in co­ordinating the international aspects of such research and training.

The major scientific and technical Programmes of WMO: WMO carries out its work through seven major scientific and tech­nical Programmes which have strong components in each Region. All of them contribute data and expertise to the climate issue.

The World Weather Watch Programme is the backbone of the overall programme of WMO. It combines data-processing cen­tres, observing systems and telecommunication facilities — opera­ted by Members — to make available meteorological and related geophysical information that is needed in order to provide efficient meteorological and hydrological services within the countries. It also includes a Tropical Cyclone Programme, in which more than 50 countries are involved, and an Instruments and Methods of Observation Programme to promote standardization and develop­ment of meteorological and related observations.

The World Climate Programme promotes the improvement of the understanding of climate processes through internationally co­ordinated research and the monitoring of climate variations or changes. It also promotes the application of climate information and services to assist in economic and social planning and develop­ment. The Research component of the Programme is the joint responsibility of WMO and the International Council of Scientific Unions with the active participation of the Intergovernmental Océanographie Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, whereas the Cli­mate Impact Assessment and Response Strategies component is co­ordinated by the United Nations Environment Programme.

The Applications of Meteorology Programme comprises four vital areas of application of meteorological services and inform­ation: public weather services, agricultural meteorology, aeronautical meteorology and marine meteorology, and promotes the develop­ment of infrastructures and services which are required in those areas for the benefit of Member countries.

The Atmospheric Research and Environment Programme promotes atmospheric research, in particular through the Global Atmosphere Watch, which integrates monitoring and research

activities carried out under the Global Ozone Observing System and the Background Air Pollution Monitoring Network, and serves as a system to detect changes in the composition of the atmos­phere. The Programme also includes weather prediction research; a Tropical Meteorology Research Programme relating to studies of monsoons, tropical cyclones, rain-producing tropical weather sys­tems and droughts; a programme on the physics and chemistry of clouds; and weather modification.

The Hydrology and Water Resources Programme is con­cerned with the assessment of the quantity and quality of water resources in order to meet the needs of society, to permit mitiga­tion of water-related hazards, and to maintain or enhance the con­dition of the global environment. It includes standardization of all aspects of hydrological observations and the organized transfer of hydrological techniques and methods. The Programme is closely co-ordinated with UNESCO's International Hydrological Pro­gramme.

The Education and Training Programme holds the key to future development by promoting all efforts in Member countries to ensure that the necessary body of trained meteorologists, hydrologists, engineers and technicians is available to carry out national and international programmes in meteorology and opera­tional hydrology. It is closely interrelated with all other major scien­tific and technical Programmes.

The Technical Co-operation Programme comprises the main-' stream of organized transfer of meteorological and hydrological knowledge and proven methodology among the Members of the Organization. Particular emphasis is laid upon the development of a wide range of services (related to weather prediction, climatology and hydrology); on the development and operation of key World Weather Watch infrastructures; and on supporting the Education and Training Programme of WMO. The Programme is funded mainly by UNDP, by WMO's own Voluntary Co-operation Pro­gramme, trust funds and the WMO regular budget.

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WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

FOREWORD The world is in a particularly difficult situation today. Fundamental changes are taking place in

attitudes and ways of interacting. These changes are seen in all arenas: political, social and economic. One might think that an institution like the World Meteorological Organization would not be greatly affected by such changes. However, the role of the United Nations and its specialized agencies is expanding, governments are demanding more and more co-ordinated and integrated solutions to problems facing humankind, and it is becoming apparent that the future of the world depends on everyone (our daily actions, our opinions, our lifestyles and our co-operation). The scientific and techni­cal agencies must therefore ensure that appropriate importance is attached to social and economic issues in their plans and activities.

In cognizance of this, WMO has ensured that its scientific and technical programmes are aimed at supporting the social and economic activities of the Organization's Member countries. The World Cli­mate Programme is particularly relevant to these requirements.

Following from a decision of the WMO Congress, an Intergovernmental Meeting on the World Climate Programme (WCP) was held in Geneva from 14 to 16 April 1993, sponsored jointly by WMO, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and its Intergovernmental Océanographie Commission (IOC), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the United Nations Development Pro­gramme (UNDP) and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). Its purpose was to review how the WCP and its associated activities might best meet the new demands placed on countries in this field. Principal among these are the recommendations of Agenda 21 of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development and the requirements of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.

You will read below about the outcome of this intergovernmental meeting. I believe that it will help to ensure that collaboration in climate-related activities is enhanced and that these activities will indeed be directed at solving the key societal problems of today.

(CO.P. Obasi) Secretary-General

C

Professor G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary-General of WMO,

during the IGM

HE CURATE AGENDA For three days in April 1993, some 360 delegates from 134 countries met in Geneva to discuss 'The Climate Agenda' or, more precisely, to review the means of co-ordination of the World Climate Programme (WCP) and to consider appropriate means for the provision of adequate resources for the WCP and related activities such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). About 80 representatives of 37 international governmental and non-governmental organizations also participated.

Convened by WMO on behalf of the seven sponsor ing organ izat ions (WMO, UNEP, UNESCO, its Intergov­ernmental Océanographie Commis­sion (IOC), FAO, UNDP and ICSU), this Intergovernmental Meet ing on the Wor ld Cl imate Programme ( I G M -WCP) took place at the International Conference Centre in Geneva from 14 to 16 April 1993. Sir John Houghton (United Kingdom) was in the Chair.

Five basic documents had been pre­pared fo l lowing a full inter-agency, integrated procedure. Two of the doc­

uments reviewed the past and present activities of the WCP and its associated functions, one reviewed national cli­mate activities, one presented consoli­dated future plans for the internatio­nal programmes, and the last was a concise summary of the other four.

The I n t e r g o v e r n m e n t a l M e e t i n g adopted a 'Statement on the Climate Agenda' containing its recommenda­tions. This will be bound in with the report of the meeting, but will also be issued as a separate document in six languages.

3 • JUNE 1993 No.3

WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

Snippets from the Statement

[National climate pro­gramme] activities should be broadly based to include all relevant disci­plines such as meteorology and climatology, agricul­ture, oceanography, hydrology, ecology as well as the social and economic sciences.

The active participation of developing countries, which constitute the majority of countries in the world, is essential for the success of the WCP and its associated activities.

All countries should be encouraged, and develop­ing countries supported, to participate actively in regional networks, insti­tutes and centres being developed for climate and global change research and training.

Countries should adopt a policy of full and open exchange of data neces­sary for climate system monitoring, early detec­tion of climate change, prediction, research and information product devel­opment.

Countries should be encouraged to develop, within their national cli­mate programmes, mech­anisms for conducting and supporting assessments of impacts and adaptive responses to climate varia­tions and change.

Statement

The Statement on the Climate Agen­da is in four parts: background; the main conclusions; recommendations on national climate activities; recom­mendations on international activities.

Conclusions The main conclusions of the IGM-WCP recognize both the broad scope and the depth of work already under­taken through the WCP and its asso­ciated activities, as well as its impor­tance for the work of the IPCC, for developing the Framework Conven­t i o n on C l ima te Change and fo r implementing Agenda 21 .

The IGM-WCP endorsed the four main thrusts (see below) aimed at achieving future progress and ben­efits, and emphasized the importance of integration, both among the vari­ous international programmes and between those and national activities.

Recommendations As regards na t iona l c l ima te p ro ­grammes, the recommendations of the IGM-WCP: • Stress the value of such p ro ­

grammes in all countries; • Recognize the i m p o r t a n c e of

strengthening a full range of pro­gramme activities;

• Call for links among national pro­grammes and between these and regional and international efforts;

• Urge sponsor ing agencies and countries to give high priority to support for capacity-building activ­ities in developing countries.

As regards international programmes, the recommendations: • Emphasize the need to gear future

activities to the needs of the IPCC and FCCC and to support socio­economic development;

• Make specific mention of the need fo r s u p p o r t to obse rv i ng p ro ­grammes in general, and to the Global Climate Observing System in particular;

• Draw attention to the potential of climate prediction and the advan­tages of regional and international co-operation in this field;

• Cite the need for support to develop­ing countries if they are to participate fully in international activities;

• Call upon the Executive Boards/ Councils of the international orga­nizat ions concerned to prepare integrated proposals for the future development and funding of their cl imate-related activities, and to ar range for the p repara t i on of biennial progress reports;

• Invite the same Executive Boards/ Councils to establish, under the leadership of W M O , an Advisory Panel to review and offer guidance on the work referred to above;

• Urge nations and sponsoring agen­cies to support the implementation of these proposals.

THE FOUR MAIN THRUSTS OF THE WCP

Climate services for sustainable development Essential services in support of sustainable development will be provided;

New frontiers in cl imate science and prediction Improved predictions of climate and climate change over periods ranging from seasons to centuries will result from advances in climate-related science and technology;

Dedicated observations of the cl imate system Advances in climate observing systems will lead to increased knowledge of the global climate, in all its aspects;

Studies of cl imate impact assessments and response strategies t o reduce vulnerabil i ty Response strategies to reduce the vulnerability of society will be developed through improvements in the assessments of the impacts of climate variations and change on economic and social activities.

L

4 «JUNE 1993 No. 3

WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

Sponsoring organiza­tions and countries should ensure that the relevant planning bodies take account of the priorities of Agenda 21 . . .

A key element in . . . a scheme for the dedicat­ed observation of the cli­mate system is support both of the basic observ­ing systems on which GCOS is to be built, and of planning to address the incremental activities needed to build an inte­grated system . . .

It al

r ^ B * H I r-UMRMftH : :S IGM fi p^L-I* ' '^BB

Left to right: Mr /. Bruce, Chairman of the Organizing Committee; Sir John Houghton, Chairman of the ICM-WCP; Mr A.). Askew, Executive Secretary of the ICM-WCP

These recommendations are addressed to nations and, as appro­priate, to the international organiza­tions that sponsored the IGM-WCP.

The UNEP Governing Council was to examine them at its seventeenth ses­sion in May 1993 and the WMO

Executive Council at its forty-fifth ses­sion the following month. Advance copies of the Statement on the Cli­mate Agenda were widely circulated in order to encourage nations and international organizations to take account of the recommendations in their future planning. •

C

Global Climate

Observing System

joint Planning Office

WMO/IOC/ UNEP/ICSU

Joint Scientific and Technical

Committee

WORLD CLIMATE

PROGRAMME

World Climate Data and

Monitoring Programme

WMO

World Climate Applications and Services Programme

WMO

Advisory Committee on Climate Applications and Data

World Climate Impact

Assessment and Response

Strategies Programme

UNEP

Scientific Advisory

Committee

WCP-Water

WMO/ UNESCO

GLOBAL CHANGE

RESEARCH

World Climate Research

Programme

joint Planning Office

WMO/ICSU/ IOC

International Geosphere-Biosphere

Programme

ICSU

joint Scientific Committee

Scientific Committee

OVERALL CO-ORDINATION (Advisory) • Co-ordinating Committee on the WCP: annual meetings

of chairs of the advisory committees shown (includes representatives of IPCC and INC/FCCC)

Human Dimensions of

Global Environmental

Change Programme

ISSC/ICSU

INTERAGENCY CO-ORDINATION • (Annual) meetings of Executive Heads of all participating

organizations convened by the Secretary-General of WMO • Senior representatives of participating organizations meet

at least once a year

NOTE: Organizations indicated in boxes are the lead agencies for programmes (others are also involved)

INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE ACTIVITIES: Existing organizational and co-ordination arrangements

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WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

The value of national efforts can be multiplied significantly through the provision of adequate sup­port for planning and co­ordination of the various WCP component pro­grammes and associated activities.

An effective inter­national public informa­tion programme with regional branches should be further developed and co-ordinated among the agencies . . .

The integration and new thrusts of the WCP and associated activities repre­sent a complex agenda of proposals that must be carefully presented. . . . In particular, the current basis of activity, the future objectives and benefits and the full resource impli­cations must be clearly identified.

;

Dr W.J. Maunder, president of the Commission for Climatology

SOME QUOTES FROM THE 1GM-WCP Garnered by the Inter Press Service

Climate is more than just high or low temperature, rainfall or humidity in a particular place. Climate is more than just climate change. When we talk of climate, we talk of the very basics of human life—food, water and people's livelihoods. CO.P . Obasi, Secretary-General of W M O

Co-ordination does not come from tying the shoelaces together. It comes from agreeing what the dance steps are. Surely by the end of this session we can decide on the steps and even start to practise them. E. Dowdeswell , Executive Director of UNEP

My experience of dancing is that the activists dance in the middle of the room while most—the wallflowers—sit around the room watching. Let us not just get in step, let us get everyone involved. M. Zammit Cutajar, Executive Secretary of the Intergovernmental Neg­otiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change

/ imagine you all go to parties where you have to bring something along with you. If nobody brings anything there is nothing to eat or drink. That's a bit what the World Climate Programme is like. Our national efforts are vital if we are going to have a party. Sir John Houghton, Chair of the IGM-WCP

COMMISSION FOR CLIMATOLOGY

WMO's Commission for Climatology (CCI) held its eleventh quadrennial session in Havana (Cuba) from 15 to 26 February 1993. The president, Dr W.J. Maunder (New Zealand), and vice-president, Mr Y. Boodhoo (Mau­ritius), were both re-elected for a sec­ond term of office.

The discipline of cl imatology per se has tended to be somewhat eclipsed by the current mobilization of interest and resources directed at the climate change issue. A commission on clima­tology already existed in the days of the In te rna t i ona l Me teo ro l og i ca l Organization, predecessor of WMO, and many of the good climatological records that are now so important in de tec t ing man-made effects exist thanks to this body. As the W M O Secretary-General, Professor Obasi, observed at the opening meeting, the United Nations Conference on Envi­ronment and Development under­lined the economic importance of a strong climatological component in nat iona l Meteoro log ica l Services.

That w i l l requi re a lead f r om the Commission.

It was stated that the challenge to CCI is to assist people throughout the world not only to reduce the risks of adverse climatic effects but also to enhance t he many o p p o r t u n i t i e s offered by our rich climate resources. In this context, Dr Maunder warned the part ic ipants that the abil i ty to capitalize on and reduce risks f rom future climate has yet to be demon­strated, and that any future action in this regard would be compromised if we could not deal with the challenge of the present climate.

It was a matter of satisfaction to the Commission for Climatology that its sis­ter Commission for Basic Systems, responsible in WMO for international operational meteorological affairs, was preparing the ground for climate analy­sis products to be distributed over the World Weather Watch Global Telecom­munication System (GTS). Coded bul­letins of monthly statistics from selected

c.

6 «JUNE 1993 No. 3

WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

The Landsberg Lecture Dr Maunder delivered the Landsberg Lecture at this session of CCI. The subject he chose was 'Global warming: Change of cli­mate or part of climate?' The text of his talk is reproduced in the April 1993 issue of the WMO Bulletin (42 (2) pp. 112-118). In the same number an interview with Dr Warren L. Godson gives some interesting back­ground on, inter alia, the study of atmospheric ozone.

World Day for Water

The General Assembly of the United Nations at its forty-seventh session in 1992 designated 22 March each year as the W o r l d Day for Water.

The fo l l ow ing day, 23 March , has fo r many years been celebrated as World Meteorological Day, commemorating the coming into force of the W M O Convention in 1950.

surface and upper-air observing stations ( C L I M A T / C L I M A T TEMP) are already

exchanged over the GTS, permitting a preliminary synoptic view of the current climate with minimal delay.

The Commission attaches particular importance to the surroundings of re ference c l ima to l og i ca l s ta t ions being protected from developments that might endanger the homogene­ity of observations.

The climatologists and other experts participating in the session agreed on a plan to develop further the climate monitoring and detection systems so essential to enhancing global climate services for sustainable development in the 21st century.

The president said he thought that the eleventh session of the Commis­sion had come a long way in both recognizing its objectives and in hav­ing a st rong act ion plan to attain them. •

WCP-WATER

The main CCI recommendations:

• To strengthen the capacity of Meteorological and Hydro-logical Services t h r o u g h pro­fessional t ra in ing and comput­er facil it ies;

• To i n t e n s i f y w o r k on estab l ish ing datasets fo r the be t te r m o n i t o r i n g of c l imate variabil i ty and change;

• To p r o m o t e in te rna t iona l a g r e e m e n t o n p r e s e r v i n g a sufficient number of reference c l imato logica l stat ions w i t h a mul t i -year history of observa­t ions;

• To set up a system under wh ich expert ise and in forma­t i o n are e x c h a n g e d f o r fu r ­ther ing user-oriented cl imato­logical services for sustainable development.

Planning meeting

The hydrological arm of the World Climate Programme, known as WCP-Water, aims at the effective use of (a) climate data and information in the p l ann ing and opera t ion of water resource systems, and (b) hydrological data for climate studies.

A recent WCP-Water planning meet­ing, in which representatives of orga­nizations involved plus invited experts participated, was held at Wallingford (United Kingdom) from 1 to 5 March 1993.

Wi th the for thcoming Intergovern­mental Meeting on the WCP in mind, the p l ann ing mee t ing adop ted a statement presenting WCP-Water.

It starts off: Climate and water are as inseparable as water and life. Life on the planet started in water. Today, a reliable and wholesome supply of water is vital for drinking, growing food, human health, industry, energy produc­

tion and transport. Put simply: without water, civilization would stop.

The statement predicts that demand for water w i l l doub le by the year 2050, being then equivalent to about a quarter of the flow of all the world's rivers. The situation is complicated by the prospect of climate change.

Some 30 projects are planned under WCP-Water, addressing both the sci­ence of climate change (hydrological processes in climate-prediction mod­els, gridded hydrological data to assist in model val idat ion, more l ight on past changes) and the practical prob­lems of water managemen t (case studies, notably in the Sahel, where climatic variability has had such disas­trous consequences).

The statement concludes as fol lows: WCP-Water is acutely aware of the central role of data and a significant proportion of its activities is devoted to underpinning projects concerning runoff,

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WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

The newly elected president ofCHy, Prof. K. Hofius (left) and the retiring president,

Prof. 0. Starosolszky

Photo: I. Bassier

precipitation, solar and terrestrial radiation and glaciers. Clobal coverage, long-term recording, quality control, free and unre­stricted exchange of data and adequate timeliness are all emphasized. Without these data, and the understandings that they provide, there is the prospect of future failure of water-resource systems in many regions of the globe, just at the time when the demand for water for drinking, sani­tation, agriculture and energy will be rising to an all-time high.

WMO Commission for Hydrology

Any change in the climate is likely to have a considerable effect on the hydrological cycle, and thus on the ava i l ab i l i t y of wa te r fo r use by mank ind . At the same t ime, water demands would also be affected: for ins tance, changes in evapora t ion would alter irrigation requirements, and a global warming would bring a need for more water for cooling and domestic purposes. Again, changes in the hydrological cycle would affect the a t m o s p h e r i c c i r cu la t i on by changing the moisture input in the lowest layers of the atmosphere.

It was not surprising, then, that cli­mate change was discussed at some length when the WMO Commission for Hydrology met in Geneva for its ninth quadrennial session from 5 to

15 January 1993. This was just one year after the Dubl in Internat ional Conference on Water and the Envi­ronment (WCN-No.1 p.5) and seven months after the United Nations Con­ference on Environment and Devel­opment (the Rio 'Earth summit').

Reports by six rapporteurs who make up the Commission's Working Group on Operational Hydrology, Climate and the Env i ronment , fo rmed the basis for discussions on this issue.

Most regrettably, just when the pub­lic is recognizing cl imate to be an impo r tan t issue, hydro logica l net­works in much of the wor ld are in decline, endangering our abil i ty to monitor the hydrological cycle. The Commission was so concerned at this state of affairs that it adopted a state­ment pointing out to Member coun­tries, the Executive Council and deci­sion-makers in general that, wi thout appropriate action, the national and g lobal plans on p ro tec t ion of the envi ronment and sustainable water management set out in Agenda 21 cannot be carried out.

At the same t ime the Commission encouraged the work of the relevant international data centres such as the Global Runoff Data Centre at Koblenz (Germany) and the Global Precipita­tion Climatology Centre at Offenbach (Germany) (WCN-No.2 p.9). •

A CLIMATE OF CO-OPERATION

The relationship between oceanogra-phers and meteorologists has always been somewhat turbulent, due essen­tially to differing perspectives of con­duct ing and administering the sci­ence and technology of the two disci­plines, despite their fundamental sim­ilarities and overlapping concerns.

In the past, the institutional relation­ship between WMO and the Intergovernmental Océanographie Commission (IOC) has reflected this collective paranoia, staffed as they are by meteorologists and oceanographers, and supported and guided by national

meteorological and océanographie institutions. Thus, whereas there have been jo int projects and numerous examples of good co-operation and mutual support, there is also a cont inuing element of mistrust, 'demarcat ion ' disputes and fence-building, reflecting, it must be said, the prevail ing inst i tut ional compet i t ion within the United Nations and national systems generally.

Happily, however, not only times but percept ions and personali t ies are changing. Meteorologists no longer th ink of the ocean as essentially a

C

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WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

Countries report that: For Zagreb (Croatia) and the Clementinum Obser­vatory (Czech Republic), 1992 was the warmest year for more than a century.

Preliminary data suggest that 1992 set a new record for the number of torna­does in mainland USA.

After the prolonged severe drought in south-eastern Africa, exceptionally heavy rain in December flooded the River Hoya in Zimbabwe which was reported to have claimed 50 lives from drowning, contaminated drinking water and crocodiles.

FAO reports that: Due to a severe drought at the beginning of the grow­ing season, wheat produc­tion in Morocco was only 1.6 million tonnes in 1992 compared with 3.1 million the previous year. Harvests in most Sahelian countries were above-average, or even set a record, although Mauritania was rather less for tunate. Bumper crops were expected in Eritrea and Ethiopia, and cereal harvests in Sudan were up by some 15% over the pre­vious year.

passive boundary to the atmosphere; they realize that it is a key component in the global climate system and that they need oceanographers to describe it for them. Oceanographers are now prepared to look at their science on basin and global scales, realizing that they will need to work together—with o ther oceanographers and w i t h meteoro logis ts—if they are to understand the oceans' role in the cl imate system, and that they need meteoro log is ts ' experience and support in bui lding and maintaining operational global data exchange and management mechanisms.

Thus, despite a certain natural vari­ability, the 'climate of co-operation' b e t w e e n me teo ro log i s t s and oceanographers, and more specifical­ly between WMO and IOC, is show­ing distinct signs of global warming. The long-standing and very successful co-operation of WMO and IOC in co-sponsor ing the In tegrated Global Ocean Services System and the Drift­ing Buoy Co-opera t ion Panel has

recently been substantially expanded through further co-sponsorship of the World Climate Research Programme, the Global Climate Observing System and now the Global Ocean Observing System.

It is in the field of climate that the essential inseparability of atmosphere and ocean is most clearly recognized. However, co-operation is most unlike­ly to end t h e r e . Spur red on by UNCED and the obvious need to pull together in implementing Agenda 21 and the Rio conventions, the two sis­ter organizat ions are now actively exploring other avenues for co-opera­t ive efforts, in f ields as diverse as long-term specialized education and t ra in ing facil it ies or imp lement ing reg iona l l y c o - o r d i n a t e d mar ine observ ing, data management and services systems.

Clearly, increased heat and momen­tum fluxes between meteorologists and oceanographers may not be such a bad thing. •

CLIMATE SYSTEM MONITORING

The global climate in 1992

Temperature Two natural events apparently had a major impact on the northern hemi­sphere's climate in 1992. During the f irst part of the year the 1991 /92 El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode contributed to many above-normal temperatures in the northern hemisphere.

Then dur ing the second part of the year there was a cool ing associated w i th the stratospheric aerosol cloud produced by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) in June 1991 . Indeed, the aerosol c loud had extended from the tropical belt into nor thern latitudes by the spring of 1 992, just at the time when insolation increases there. This made 1992 the coolest year since 1986 at the surface, even if it was still one of the warmest years in the historical record.

The largest negat ive tempera tu re anomalies for the year 1992 were f o u n d in the M i d d l e East and in no r th -eas te rn Canada, the Davis Strait and western Greenland. Positive anomalies were observed along the Pacific coast of North America and Peru, east-central Asia and most of Europe.

In the southern hemisphere tempera­ture departures over land were most­ly smal l excep t f o r the pos i t i ve anomalies in the drought -s t r icken regions of southern Africa.

The estimated global surface temper­ature anomaly (over land) of 0.2°C makes 1992 the eighth warmest year since 1951, but the second coolest of the past six years. A longer time series (including marine areas) shows it to have been the coolest year since 1 986. Both series show the predomi­nance of positive anomalies dur ing the past 20 years.

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WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

The Global Climate system in 1992 Hot and dry May-Aug

Cold September

Long-term drought persists

despite yet Feb & Dec

Excessively . wet year

Very mild Jan-Apr

C o o l

s u m m e r

Very stormy Sep-Nov

Dry "rainy" season, then very

wet September

June-November drought fol lows locally

severe spring f looding Dry Jun, then wet

through Aug; catastrophic f looding in

Pakistan (Sep)

G $ INIKI >$ US1.6 billion in damages

V e r y w a r m Modera te Apr-jun

EL NINO d im in i shes

P e r s i s t e n t c o l d & s t o r m y p e r i o d s

U n u s u a l J a n c o l d s p e l l

Adequate rainy season

despite slow start &

early end

Wet most of year; periodic river f looding

N. Argentina

Heavy spring rains — & active Jul-Oct

tropical systems

Dry spring; intense Aug-Sep rains (to 1775 mm)

Dry Jan; very wet Feb & May; severe Feb flooding, SE Queensland

Worst drought of century into Sep;

then heavy Nov-Dec rains

Wet Aug-Oct ; cool Nov, Dec

CLIIMTE ANALYSIS CENTER. NOAA Severely dry Jan-Jun; late Aug. snowstorm

c

Delayed action During a storm near Gorlitz (Germany) in early June 1992, lightning struck a tree and detonated a mine laid during the Second World War (1939-1945). Then in November 1992, in Lower Saxony, five soldiers were injured when lightning struck and ignited a practice explosive device.

Pacific sea-levels In November 1992, the sea-level was higher than the 1975-1986 average from Kapingamarangi to Christmas I. to Hawaii, from Queensland (Aus­tralia) to Tahiti, in the Philippines, along the southern coasts of China and japan and in the Gulf of Alaska. Areas of below-average sea-level were west and north-west of Hawaii and along most of the coast of South America.

Precipitation Significant precipitation anomalies dur­ing 1992 were likewise related to the prolonged ENSO event. The devastating drought over south-eastern Africa was reported to have been the worst there for more than 100 years. Precipitation was generally less than normal in the monsoon regions of India and Australia. December 1991 to May 1992 was an extremely wet period for the south-west of the USA. A resurgence of ENSO late in the year brought much-needed rain to the west coast of the USA.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation By m i d - 1 9 9 2 it seemed t h a t the 1991/92 ENSO event was coming to an end. However, late in the year, there appeared to be a reintensifica­t ion of some El Nino characteristics: t rop ica l sea-surface temperatures have remained above average (by up to two degrees Celsius), the depth of the ocean's w a r m layer has been increasing, equatorial easterlies are weaker than average and the South­ern Oscillation Index persists below average. •

Glaciers in the Swiss Alps In the previous issue (WCN-2 p. 10), averaged over the sample of reliably reference was made to research indi- observed glaciers (this ranged from eating a diminution of permafrost in abou t seven in 1 8 7 9 / 8 0 to 89 in the Pennine Alps of Switzerland. 1990/91, the latest survey).

M o n i t o r i n g of permafrost started only recently, but systematic observa­tions have been made of the state of various Swiss glaciers for over a cen­tury. The Commission for Glaciers of the Swiss Academy of Natural Sci­ences publishes an annual report , and the following note is based on a summary by M. Aellen published in the quarterly journal Les Alpes of the Swiss Alpine Club (1992 #4).

The accompanying figure shows the year-to-year change in glacier length

Multiple factors govern changes in a glacier's length, each glacier having its individual regime. The response t ime to altered cl imatic condit ions varies from between one and seven years in the case of a small glacier to 20-25 years for the largest. Thus at no t ime d u r i n g the 111 years of observations were all Swiss glaciers in the same phase ( a d v a n c i n g or retreating), a l though the net trend over the period is clearly a diminu­t ion. At the t ime of the last glacier maximum (1977/78), 76 of the sam-

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WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

C

A mean global tempera­ture index? A planetary electromag­netic phenomenon known as the Schumann resonance is generated by thunder­storms the world over.

On the assumptions that (a) the strength of the Schumann resonance is proportional to the num­ber of thunderstorms, and (b) the number of thun­derstorms increases with increasing surface temper­ature, Dr Earle Williams of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has obtained encouraging results in an experiment comparing several years' data on resonance intensi­ty against average temper­atures over the tropics (where most thunder­storms occur).

The Schumann resonance as an index seems to be not only quite accurate but sensitive too, since its value doubles with a tem­perature increase of only one degree Celsius.

pie of 106 glaciers were advancing, 24 retreating and six unchanged. In 1990 /91 the sample was 109, of wh ich only e ight were advanc ing, 100 were ret reat ing and one was unchanged.

The average rate of re t rea t in 1990 /91 , though substantial, is still

c) Variation moyenne de longueur (en m)

well short of that in 1946/47 when almost every glacier in a sample of approximately 70 diminished. Never­theless, mater ia l revealed by the retreating ice permits the Commis­sion for Glaciers to aff irm that the extent of glaciation in the Alps has not been so small since the Middle Ages (i.e. up to about AD 1500). •

1879/80 1889/90 1899/1900 1909/10 1959/60 1969/70

Year-to-year variations in the average length of Swiss glaciers (in metres) Commission for Glaciers, Swiss Academy of Natural Sciences

WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME

Under the terms of the agreement making the WCRP a joint programme between WMO, ICSU and IOC, the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) now takes over full responsibility for climate-related océanographie projects previously organized by IOC and ICSU's Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research. The JSC thus has representatives of the atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological and polar disciplines from many parts of the world and from both governmental and academic institutions.

The JSC met in Bermuda from 15 to 20 March 1993. Its most far-reaching decis ion on this occasion was to undertake a major new activity under the WCRP, namely CLIVAR (see box).

COARE The intensive observing period of the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere p rog ramme and Coupled Ocean -Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) ended in February 1993. More than 700 scientists from 12 countries took part. The observ­ing system worked well and a good variety of atmospheric condi t ions were probed, including active con­v e c t i o n . Work on analys ing and interpreting the data is already under way.

Redrawing weather maps The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is taking ou t archived meteoro log ica l data back to 1978 and reanalysing them using a uniform up-to-date scheme. Likewise the National Weather Cen­

ter of the USA is developing a new climate data assimilation system and will reanalyse data back to 1958.

Other WCRP projects CEWEX (WCN-2, p.5)—Encouraging advances have been made under the Con t i nen ta l - sca le I n t e rna t i ona l Project.

New WCRP project

The Cl imate Var iab i l i t y and P r e d i c t i o n Research p r o ­g ramme, given the acronym CLIVAR, is n o t h i n g i f n o t ambi t ious. Concern ing itself w i t h the natural variabi l i ty of t h e c l i m a t e sys tem and its response to changes in exter­na l f o r c i n g , t h e p r o j e c t is designed to describe, under­s t a n d , m o d e l a n d p r e d i c t g loba l c l imate var iat ions on seasona l , i n t e r - a n n u a l and e v e n m u l t i - d e c a d a l t i m e scales. CLIVAR w i l l s ta r t in 1995 and last for 15 years.

11 «JUNE 1993 No.3

WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

CALENDAR

11-23 July 1993 Yokohama, Japan

Joint Scientific Assembly of the IUCG Interna­tional Associations of Hydrological Sciences and Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

15 -16 July 1993 Oxford, U.K.

Oxford Environment Conference: Climate change and world food security

16 -20 August 1993 Geneva, Switzerland

TOGA Scientific Steer­ing Group, 12th session

16-23 August 1993 Geneva, Switzerland

Intergovernmental Nego­tiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change

2 3 - 2 7 August 1993 Budapest, Hungary

International Solar Energy Society: World Congress

Autumn 1993 Amsterdam, Netherlands

Scientific Advisory Com­mittee for the WCIRP, 10th session

13-15 September 1993 Cambridge, U.K.

Scientific Steering Group on Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (WCRP)

13 -17 September 1993 Carqueiranne, France

Fourth international con­ference on CO2 measure­ments and analysis

ISCCP (WCN-1 , p.7)—Data are to be reprocessed and the project extended from 1995 to 2000. WOCE (WCN-1 , p.7)—Activity in the field component is rapidly approach­ing its peak. ACSYS (WCN-1 , p.8)—The plan now in preparation calls for a hydrographie survey of the Arct ic Ocean basin, long- term under-ice moorings and

acoustic diagnostics of ice thickness and drift. Incidentally, a nuclear sub­mar i ne of the USA is m a k i n g a research cruise at depth in the centre of the basin late in 1993. Model intercomparisons—No less than 1 7 atmospher ic mode l l i ng groups have completed a simulation of the Earth's c l imate for the prescr ibed period 1979-1988. •

OZONE LAYER DEFICIT IN

Total ozone values ranging from 9 to 20 per cent below normal were found above the middle and higher latitudes of the northern hemi­sphere during the 1992/93 winter. It is the second winter in succession that such an attenuation of the northern ozone layer has been observed.

Data f rom the W M O Global Ozone Obse rv ing System (a ne two rk of 140 ground-based moni tor ing sta­t i ons as we l l as sate l l i tes) have revealed record low values for total ozone above the 45°-65°N latitude belt during the recent winter season. The data series extends back some 37 years.

In January 1993, total ozone aver­aged over the entire belt between 45°N and 65°N was between 12 and 15 per cent below normal.

At the end of January, during most of February and part of March, to ta l ozone amounts over North America, northern, central and eastern Europe and Siberia fell to more than 20 per cen t b e l o w n o r m a l , a d e v i a t i o n greater than that of 1992, which itself had been a record.

One plausible reason for the th in ozone over these areas is the release th rough human activities of gases con ta i n i ng ch lor ine and b romine which destroy ozone (satellites have observed abundant CIO in air masses moving from the polar cap towards the sunlit mid-latitudes). There were also a number of days with very low ozone that could be attributed to the atmospheric circulation pattern. The past two winters over the European

region, in particular, were character­ized by a relatively cold lower strato­sphere and intensive horizontal and vertical transport of ozone-poor air from subtropical regions.

A l t hough ozone amounts set new minimum records over large parts of the northern hemisphere, looking at absolute values we f ind that tota l ozone seldom fell below 240 m-atm cm, compared with the 105 m-atm cm that has been recorded over the South Pole s ta t ion ( W C N - 2 p.8) . Whereas, in early March 1993, obser­va t ions revealed ozone values 20-25 per cent below the long-term average over a huge area from Scan­dinavia and central Europe to the Pacific coast of Asia, the absolute val­ues were still well above 320-340 m-atm cm, which is greater than the summertime normal.

The principal reason for the disparity between the hemispheres is that there are more f requent mer id iona l exchanges of air in the north that do not allow temperatures in the lower stratosphere to fall as low as in the south. Persistently low temperatures cause stratospheric clouds to form, with dehydration and denitr i f ication that together favour ozone destruction. The concentration of chlorine seems to be similar over both polar regions.

(

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WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

1 3 - 1 7 September 1993 Sidney, B.C., Canada

WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Mod­elling, 3rd session

13 -24 September 1993 Geneva, Switzerland

Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Convention to Combat Desertification, 2nd session

4 - 8 October 1993 Mainz, Germany

Steering Group on the Arctic Climate System Study, 2nd session

15-26 November 1993 Bangkok, Thailand

Parties to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, 5th meeting

18 -20 October 1993 Washington, D.C., USA

International workshop on cloud-radiation interactions and their parameterization in climate models

2 5 - 2 8 October 1993 Norman, Oklahoma, USA

GEWEX Continental-scale International Pro­ject panel meeting

11-16 November 1993 Braunschweig, Germany

Second conference on flow regimes from inter­national experimental and network data

7-17 June 1994 Geneva, Switzerland

WMO Executive Council, 46th session

Northern hemisphere ozone trends When the past two winter seasons are taken into account, ozone has been cumulatively reduced by more than 14 per cent since 1969/70 over continen­tal parts of the latitude belt 45°-65°N. The overall decline has been steady.

There are not enough systematic ozone observations from the tropical belt. The last 12 years' satellite observations sug­gest insignificant changes there.

Climatic impact Ozone in the lowest ten-ki lometre layer of the atmosphere over middle

and higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere is increasing by more than one per cent per year (mainly as a result of combustion processes, including forest- and bushfires) but this compensates for only a fraction of the ozone lost in the stratosphere.

Studies carr ied ou t recent ly have i n d i c a t e d t h a t these changes in ozone dist r ibut ion dur ing the past two decades could result in a 'green­house' effect comparable to that of carbon d iox ide , methane, ni trous o x i d e and c h l o r o f l u o r o c a r b o n s (CFCs) combined. •

Total ozone deviation (per cent) from the long-term mean for March 1993 showing the great ozone deficiencies over northern middle latitudes. Note that, over the polar cap, the deficit is relatively smaller than over the sunlit

regions

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Impacts and response options Working Group II met in Geneva in February to map out its future work. It dec ided to make an in tegra ted assessment of the current state of knowledge as regards impacts of cli­mate change and options for adapt­ing to, or mit igat ing, such change. Assessments will be prepared globally,

by ecological/climatic/physiographic region, and by broad economic sec­tor . The w o r k i n g g r o u p w i l l also examine methodologies for assessing na t i ona l v u l n e r a b i l i t y to c l ima te change and prepare an inventory of technologies, methods and practices aimed at mi t igat ing or adapting to climate change.

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WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

Deepest low Intense depressions are no strangers to the North Atlantic, but that which passed between Iceland and Scotland on 10 January 1993 was remarkable in that the central pressure fell to the lowest value so far encountered in that stormy region. For 15 hours the central pressure remained below 920 hPa, and the minimum was reliably esti­mated to have been between 915 and 912 hPa. Except in the case of tropi­cal cyclones (and possibly in the vortex of an intense tornado) such a low sea-level pressure has perhaps never been observed before.

Source: Royal Meteorological Society Weather, 48 (4) pp. 98-107.

Science IPCC's Working Group I continues to develop, jointly with the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Develop­ment (OECD), a methodology for quantifying national net emissions of greenhouse gases. Particular attention is being paid to the way in which carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are taken up. A workshop at Amersfoort (Netherlands) in February 1993 recom­mended improved IPCC/OECD emission algori thms for methane and nitrous oxide.

NEWS AND NOTES

Desertification

As the forty-seventh session of the UN General Assembly in 1992 drew to a close, a resolution was adopted set­ting up an Intergovernmental Negoti­ating Commit tee (INC) to draft the Convention on Desertification, follow­ing the lead given by UNCED. An ad hoc secretariat has already been set up in Geneva and WMO is involved in its work. A multidisciplinary panel of experts has also been appointed to assist the INC, and WMO hosted its first meeting in February 1993.

The first of five substantive sessions of the INC took place in Nairobi f rom 24 May to 3 June 1993.

WMO has issued guidelines for use by its Members during the negotiations and dur ing the subsequent imple­mentation of the Convention once it has been ratified.

WMO and UNEP are jointly preparing a comprehensive report on interactions between desertification and climate.

Workshop in Costa Rica

On 1 March 1993 more than 200 experts f rom Latin America and the Caribbean area gathered at San José at the invitation of the Government of Costa Rica to take part in a five-day Workshop on Climate Variability and

Participants f rom Latin America had the chance to familiarize themselves w i t h t h e la test t e c h n o l o g y at a t r a i n i n g w o r k s h o p in Sao Paulo (Brazil). Experts f rom Nigeria and Sri Lanka also spoke of their experience.

Economic aspects of climate change The mandate of reorganized Working Group III is to deal with cross-cutting and o the r e c o n o m i c issues. The group met in May 1993. •

Global Change and their Impacts. It was o r g a n i z e d by the N a t i o n a l Meteorological Institute and co-spon­sored by W M O , the Organization of American States and the Panamerican Institute for History and Geography.

There were four main themes: Ongoing research—representatives of major institutions in the region spoke about their work; Current state of science—key speakers b rought part icipants up to date as regards the latest scientific findings and theory in such fields as sea-level rise, stratospheric ozone deplet ion, c l imate change and variabi l i ty, air po l l u t i on , and impacts on human health, agriculture, forestry, etc.; Roie of the media—Two sessions were devoted to fostering public awareness and influencing attitudes; Decision-making—A special session on the last day drew up a set of recom­mendations.

Countries were encouraged to ratify the Framework Convent ion on Cli­mate Change and to develop national (and i n te rna t i ona l ) leg is la t ion to ensure a timely introduction of pre­ventive measures. There should be wider participation by legal experts in respect of env i ronmenta l matters. Funding agencies were asked to try to harmonize and simplify procedures for obtaining support.

W M O ' s roles in the co-o rd ina t ion and operat ion of observing systems

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c

A new edition of the Inter­national Meteorological Vocabulary has recently been published by WMO. More than 3500 terms are defined in English, French, Russian and Spanish. They are set out in the English alphabetical order, wi th an index in the other three languages. About 800 pages (WMO-No. 182). Price: Sfr 90.-.

Published jointly by WMO and UNESCO, a new edi­tion of the International Glossary of Hydrology has also been released. There are about 1800 terms with definitions in the same four languages, alphabeti­cal indexes and the Uni­versal Decimal Classifica­tion for hydrology. About 430 pages (WMO-No. 385). Price: Sfr 62.-.

To place an order for these and other WMO publica­tions write to: The Secretary-General, World Meteorological

Organization, Case Postale 2300 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Ask also for a free copy of the Catalogue of WMO publications.

and in providing training in ocean/ atmosphere model l ing, analysis and applications were acknowledged with gratitude.

Sustainable mining in Brazil

Min ing is h ighly impor tan t to the economy of Brazil, bringing in some US$9 billion annually. But the envi­r o n m e n t pays a heavy pr ice; the hydraulic, physical, chemical and bio­log ica l character is t ics of wa te r resources are seriously affected.

An uncontrolled expansion of mining activities is plainly incompatible wi th sustainable development. The Brazilian Inst i tute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources and WMO are therefore undertaking a trust-fund project which will help to draw up strategies and plans of action that will

incorporate mining as an important factor in sustainable development plans for different watersheds, in accordance w i t h Brazil's nat ional env i ronment policy and in harmony with Agenda 21 principles.

The immediate objectives are (a) to establish a nationwide cadastral sur­vey of mining activities by watershed; (b) to establish criteria permi t t ing m i n i n g act iv i t ies to be classif ied according to environmental impact; (c) to establish procedures relating to systems for the monitoring and con­trol of watersheds affected by mining; (d) to develop and carry out p i lot projects to enable affected hydrologi-cal basins to recover; (e) to establish legal instruments and mechanisms govern ing min ing activit ies in the con tex t of the e n v i r o n m e n t ; and (0 to carry out an env i ronmenta l extension programme. •

(GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE WATCH

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stations being established

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Locations of Global Atmospheric Watch stations (global network)

15 «JUNE 1993 No.3

WORLD CLIMATE NEWS

News about the World Meteorological

Organization's wide-ranging spheres of

activity, together with articles of general inter­

est in meteorology, climatology, operational

hydrology and related fields, are contained in

the quarterly W M O Bulletin.

Subscription rates (in Swiss francs):

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A helping hand Republics of eastern Europe and the former USSR are in the gr ip of an unprecedented pol i t ical and economic crisis. Af ter decades of central ized fund ing and d i rec t ion , the Hydrometeoro log ica l Ser­vices of these newly- independent States have suddenly found them­selves on their own to face the 'free market ' w o r l d . The financial problems are serious enough, bu t in some of these countr ies the state of the envi ronment is catastrophic.

At the invi tat ion of W M O , the directors of these Services plus a few key off ic ials ga the red in Geneva f r o m 1 t o 5 February 1993 t o exchange experiences and to learn about W M O and what could be done to help them keep their vital funct ions alive.

Despite the monumenta l task fac ing these Hydrometeoro log ica l Services, by the end of the mee t i ng , t he par t ic ipants fe l t some encouragement f r om the spirit of sol idarity tha t has always charac­ter ized the internat ional communi ty of meteorologists and hydrolo-gists. They were able to let the wor ld at large know that they most urgent ly need to be able to play their part in the Wor ld Weather Watch, the Wor ld Climate Programme, the Operat ional Hydrology Programme and other mutual ly dependent programmes.

W M O wi l l convene a Donors' Pledging Conference in 1994, aimed at supplement ing support f rom exist ing sources.

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16•JUNE 1993 No. 3