If you look closely, you can see the remains of the liberals!

The Little Party Gets Smashed

An Analysis of The Effects of Participation in Government

Recently...Party

Seats/legislature 8/650 0/631

Seat losses (%prior) 48 (85%) 93 (100%)

%pp (Δprior) 7.9 (-15.1) 4.8 (-9.8)

Membership (Δprior) 61,456 (-3,582) 57,000 (-6000)

EU seats (Δprior) 2014

1 (-10) 3(-9)

Institute for Government 2013

Why does this occur?

• Penalty of governance (Stevenson)• Loss of Trust (Tomz and Van Houweling)• Ideological Homogenization (Fortuno)

My proposed explanation

• Junior parties have relatively higher costs in coalitions because of voter-perceived veto power

• Voters do not buy into arguments of “responsible governance”

Methods

• Case studies of four scenes in European countries

• Case studies are a useful starting point to allow for in-depth analysis

• Future research: ratios, divergence.

United Kingdom 2010Party Name Conservative Liberal DemocratDate in Office 2010-2015 2010-2015

Leaders David Cameron Nick Clegg

EU Group AECR ALDE

Ideology Conservative Social liberal

In power after election? Yes No

Next Election 330 (+24) 8 (-49)

Germany 2013

Party Name Christian Democrat Free Democrat

Date in Office 2005-present 2009-2013

Leaders Angela Merkel Rainer Brüderle

EU Group EPP ALDE

Ideology Christian Democracy Economic liberalism

In power after election? Yes No

Next Election 311 (+72) 0 (-93)

French Republic 1981Party Name Parti Socialiste Parti Communiste

Français

Date in Office 1981-1986 1981-1984

Leader François Mitterrand Georges Marchais

EU Group Socialists & Democrats

Communists and Allies

Ideology Social democracy Marxist-Lenninist

In power after next election?

No, presidency No

Next Election 206 (-77) 35 (-9)

United Kingdom 1979Party Name Labour LiberalDate in Office 1974-1979 N/A

Leaders James Callaghan David Steel

EU Group PES ALDE

Ideology Social democracy Social liberalism

In power after election? No No

Next Election 269 (-50) 11 (-2)

Alternative: confidence/supply

• Outside the government, may include ministerial posts

• Avoids institutional advantages (and costs)

• No expectation of veto• Runs the risk of “irresponsibility” label

Other questions

• Electoral system• Multiparty coalitions• Ways to mitigate the veto effect• Single-issue parties