the future of coal
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The Future of Coal
Megan ParsonsEnergy Development
Burns & McDonnell EngineeringFebruary 16th, 2010
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Click to edit Master title stylePlanning for Baseload Generation
Design, Construction, and Permitting Schedules requireseveral years….…..we need to think ahead!
Drivers10‐15% Demand Growth by 2020 Many old coal units being retired
DifficultiesEnvironmental Policy? Fuel Costs?
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Click to edit Master title styleCurrent Baseload Generation Resources
Coal 56%
Oil1%
Natural Gas14%
Renewable1%
Nuclear18%
Other0%
Hydroelectric10%
‐ Renewable generation represents wind, solar, biomass, MSW, and geothermal. ‐ Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): Net Generation by Energy Source: Electric Utilities 2009
Coal ≈ 70 % Baseload GenerationEIA 2009National Electric Utility
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Click to edit Master title styleWhat Options are There?
Typical Baseload options considered today:Advanced Coal 600 MWNuclear 1100 MWNatural Gas Combined Cycle 600 MWWoody Biomass 50 MWWind w/ Natural Gas Backup 100 MW
• 2.5 MW Wind Turbines w/ Reciprocating Engines
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Click to edit Master title styleGeneration Planning Considerations
• Electric Demand– Load growth, energy efficiency
• Fuel– Supply/Demand, forecasts, transportation, markets
• Capital and Operating Costs– Inflation, technology development
• Emissions Costs• Power Market• Regulatory Impact• Etc…
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Click to edit Master title styleBaseload Generation Costs
‐ Delivered fuel costs based on coal at $2.31 /MMBtu, biomass at $5.80/MMBtu and gas at $7.32 /MMBtu (2017). ‐ Costs based on Burns & McDonnell’s experience as an EPC contractor and publicly available information.
30‐year Levelized Busbar Cost (2017$)
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$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$220
$240
Supercritical PC (600 MW)
IGCC (620 MW)
Nuclear (1,100 MW)
Biomass (50 MW)
Simple Cycle (600 MW)
Combined Cycle
(600 MW)
Wind w/ Recip Engine Backup (100 MW each)
$/MWh
Fuel
O&M
Capital
Click to edit Master title styleThe Carbon Impact
30‐year Levelized Busbar Cost vs Carbon Tax
‐ CO2 tax applied to 90% of uncontrolled carbon emissions.
$/MWh
CO2 Tax ($/ton)
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$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50
Supercritical PC (600 MW)
Combined Cycle (600 MW)
Nuclear (1,100 MW)
Click to edit Master title styleWhat are our COAL Options?
• Pulverized Coal (PC)– Low capital & operations– Proven, reliable – Advanced steam conditions
• Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB)– Fuel flexibility, 100% pet coke and biomass blends– Units ~400 MW and smaller
• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)– Flexibility – Coal to Gas or Power– Low emissions & least anticipated cost for CO2 Capture
PC
CFB IGCC
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Click to edit Master title styleCoal Generation Costs
‐ Coal costs based on coal price of $2.31 / MMBtu (2017). ‐ CO2 capture equipment assumes 90% capture capability. ‐ Costs based on Burns & McDonnell’s experience as an EPC contractor and publicly available information.
$/MWh
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30‐year Levelized Busbar Cost (2017$)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Supercritical PC (600 MW)
CFB (600 MW)
IGCC (620 MW)
Supercritical PC w/ CO2 Capture(450 MW)
CFB w/ CO2 Capture(450 MW)
IGCC w/ CO2 Capture(510 MW)
Fuel
O&M
Capital
Click to edit Master title styleAdvancing Coal
Subcritical
2500 psig 900°F ‐ 1000°F
9,900 Btu/kWh
SNCR, ESP
Steam DrumCarbon Steel Tubes
Supercritical Ultra‐Supercritical
3700 psig1050 ‐ 1100°F
4250 psig1050 ‐ 1125°F
8,800 Btu/kWh 8,700 Btu/kWh
SCR, WFGD, Baghouse, Acid Gas Sorbent
SCR, WFGD, Baghouse, Acid Gas Sorbent
SS Alloy Tubes SS Alloy Tubes
Historical Today and Tomorrow
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Click to edit Master title stylePulverized Coal Technology
1.3
2.2
2.93.6
4.1
4.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1050/1050 1100/1100 1050/1050 1050/1100 1100/1100 1110/1125 1110/1125
2520 2520 3690 3690 3690 3690 4250
% Im
prov
emen
t in
Hea
t Rat
e
Operational Conditions
Base operation
PC Steam Cycle ‐ Performance Comparison
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Click to edit Master title stylePC Coal Costs are Sensitive!
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PC Steam Conditions Sensitivity Analysis
Base
Fuel +50%
Fuel +100%
$15/ton CO2
$30/ton CO2
($160)
($140)
($120)
($100)
($80)
($60)
($40)
($20)
$0
$20
Subcritical Supercritical Ultra‐Supercritical
$/MWh
Steam Conditions
Click to edit Master title styleSummary
• Coal is a major part of our generation mix• Pulverized Coal is low cost, proven, stable technology• Coal technology continues to advance in efficiency• Coal development is stalled by undecided environmental policy
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Click to edit Master title styleContact Information
Megan Parsons, PEDevelopment Engineer, Energy DivisionBurns & McDonnellDirect: 816‐823‐7101Main: 816‐333‐9400Fax: 816‐333‐3690 Email: [email protected]: www.burnsmcd.com
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