How to Manage Risk Events Successfully

A Case Study of Crude Oil Production Upgrade Project

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Project Risk and Procurement Management (PRaPM): Midterm Assessment 1

By:

Abstract

Risk is defined as the probability that a loss will happen and adversely affect the objective of a project. No matter the size, simplicity or complexity of a project, every project has risks in terms of uncertainties that could influence the budget, scope or schedule of the project. In view of these, many projects exceeded their original cost estimates, experienced prolonged scheduled milestones/delivery dates or exposed to complicated events resulting to project stoppage.

In project, risk is described as an unclear occasion or situation that, if allowed to happen, will affect one or more objectives of the project (PMI, 2008). All risks cannot be managed; they required to be prioritized when managing them.

This paper will consider how to manage risks successfully using risks management process and explore a case-study of managing project risk in the crude oil production upgrade.

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By:

ContentsAbstract.......................................................................................................................................................1

List of Figures.............................................................................................................................................3

List of Tables...............................................................................................................................................4

1.0 Introduction:....................................................................................................................................5

1.1 Risks Category:............................................................................................................................6

2.0 Developing a Risk Management Strategy:.......................................................................................7

3.0 Managing Risks Successfully:.........................................................................................................8

3.1 Risk Identification:......................................................................................................................9

3.2 Risk Analysis:............................................................................................................................10

3.2.1 Qualitative analysis............................................................................................................11

3.2.2 Quantitative analysis..........................................................................................................12

3.2.3 Risks measurement:...........................................................................................................12

3.3 Risk Response Planning:...........................................................................................................14

3.4 Risk Monitoring and Control:....................................................................................................15

4.0 Case Study: Crude Oil Production Upgrade...................................................................................16

4.1 Project objective:.......................................................................................................................16

4.2 Project scope:.............................................................................................................................16

4.3 Risk identification:.....................................................................................................................16

4.4 Risk analysis:..............................................................................................................................17

4.4.1 Probability-Impact Matrix:................................................................................................17

4.5 Risk Response Planning:...........................................................................................................19

4.6 Risk Monitoring and Control:....................................................................................................21

5.0 Conclusion:....................................................................................................................................22

Reference:.................................................................................................................................................23

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List of Figures

Figure 1.0: The Risk Management Cycle .......................................................................................7

Figure 2.0: Analysis of Risk Likelihood and Impact.....................................................................10

Figure 3.0: Typical Probability-Impact Matrix ............................................................................11

Figure 4.0: Acceptability Matrix...................................................................................................13

Figure 5.0: Simple risk response matrix .......................................................................................14

Figure 6.0: Risk Identification.......................................................................................................16

Figure 7.0: Risk Analysis..............................................................................................................17

Figure 8.0: Risks Probability-Impact Matrix.................................................................................18

Figure 9.0: Risk Events Acceptability Matrix...............................................................................19

Figure 10.0: Risk Response Planning............................................................................................20

Figure 11.0: Risk Monitoring and Control....................................................................................21

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List of Tables

Table 1.0: Typical Project Risk Classifications ..............................................................................5

Table 2.0: Risk Management Strategy Outline and Major Activities.............................................8

Table 3.0: Steps to successfully manage risk events.......................................................................9

Table 4.0: Primary options available for responding to risks........................................................14

Table 5.0: Summary of risk events probability and impact ratings...............................................18

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1.0 Introduction:

At this moment of continuous business rivalry and globalization, the success of a project has been considered to be more important to business performance; however some projects still grieve in delays, budget overruns and total failure (Raz, Shenhar and Dvir, 2002). Risk is considered as a likelihood that something unfriendly such as loss, damage or wrong will occur (Merriam-Webster, Online), and could adversely affect the realization of set objectives in terms of cost, scope, schedule or quality should the risk happen. Risk is an overview into future from the present, predicting what probably could happen and plan for it.

TRB (2014) opined that the following three elements are required to explicitly define risk: A future event that if removed or rectified may avert a probable consequence from

happening. A likelihood evaluated at the current period of that future event happening. The consequence of that future event.

Risk management entails the identification and assessment of risks and managing those risks to reduce and curtail the effect on the project. Risk management has been considered as one of the highest requirements in project management and a key concern to the executives and individual involved in projects today.

Table 1.0 is a representation of typical project risk classifications.

Table 1.0: Typical Project Risk Classifications (Adopted from: TRB, 2014)

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The emphasis in risk management is not limited to only risk elimination, but to relatively manage it, through iterative processes of risk management - identification, assessment, planning, mitigation, monitoring and control, to effectively subject risk events to acceptable limit (TRB, 2014).

1.1 Risks Category:It’s imperative to comprehend the various qualitative distinctions amongst the different types of risks in other to create an effective risk management solution. Risk occurrences can be fatal to the existence of an organization and its strategy. According to Kaplan and Mikes (2012), risks can be categorized into one of the following three categories:

a) Preventable Risks:These are essentially internal risks and usually from within the organization (e.g. capacity, leadership, processes etc.). They are manageable, easy-to-deal-with and expected to be removed or circumvented. For instance, the risks from managements’ and workers’ unauthorized, unethical, inappropriate or illicit acts and the risks from failures and breakdowns in regular operational procedures are examples.This category of risks can be well-managed using active prevention such as monitoring operational guidelines and processes, and managing worker’s actions and decisions in achieving desired norms (Kaplan and Mikes 2012).

b) Strategy Risks:These risks are quite unique and are inherently desirable. They originate from the management’s fundamental decisions concerning the objectives of an organization which could be business or non-business driven. A strategy with significant benefits and returns requires an organization to indulge in considerable risks, and managing those risks is a major driver in seizing the prospective gains inherent in the strategy. For instance, National Oil Company agreed to the high risks of embarking on extremely expensive offshore drilling campaign of several miles into the subsurface, because of the significant value of oil proceeds it anticipated to extract.

c) External Risks:These are risks from events that occur outside the organization and are beyond their influence or control (Kaplan and Mikes 2012). Some of these risks could be political, environmental, social, technological and key macroeconomic changes. Focusing on identifying the risks and mitigating their impact is critical to the success of managing external risks.PESTLE (Political, Economy, Social, Technology, Legal and Environment) analysis delivers valuable statistics for appreciating the ‘greater picture’ of the project environment, specifically as a handy tool to understand and identify inherent and

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exogenous risks during risk assessment process. PESTEL can be utilized as a foundation for strategic and future planning in risk management.

2.0 Developing a Risk Management Strategy:Prior to the commencement of identifying and assessing risks, it’s significant to understand the fundamentals of how risk events will be identified and successfully managed. There are distinctive risks for each project depending on the nature of project, the expected strategy should be appropriate to the project’s size, capacity and resources.

Managing risk is the methodical, constructive identification of threats and opportunities for the best utilization of resources, and also the development of appropriate plans to regulate risk and allow proper actions in managing resources (DECD, 2013). However, measuring risk is considered a critical step in the process of managing it. The process of managing project risks broadly consists of risk assessment and a mitigation plan. More importantly, the assessment contains both the identification of probable risk and the evaluation of impending effect and influence of the risk. The mitigation strategy is aimed to remove or reduce the impact of the negative effect of risk occurrences.

According to Boehm (1989), managing risk can be fragmented into two major interconnected parts - risk assessment and risk control. While risk assessment may include risk identification, analysis and prioritization, the risk control include risk planning, mitigation and monitoring. Similarly, TRB (2014) described process for project risk management in five general steps (Figure 1.0).

Figure 1.0: The Risk Management Cycle (Source: TRB, 2014)

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Risk Management

Planning

Risk Identificatio

n

Risk AnalysisRisk

Response Planning

Risk Monitoring and Control

Risk management is a fundamental portion of the overall project delivery cycle. When a wide-ranging risk management bundle is applied across the life-cycle of a project, critical risk events are correctly acknowledged and appropriate control plans are established and executed. A well-structured and implemented risk management cycle is crucial for harmonizing cost, milestone and performance goals (TRB, 2014).Table 2.0 outlines the respective steps and major activities in the risk management strategy.

Table 2.0: Risk Management Strategy Outline and Major Activities (TRB, 2014)

3.0 Managing Risks Successfully:

The gains from risk management are evident when effectively applied which are contributory to the success of any project. To successfully manage risk events, it’s recommended to defining the method, tools and resources such as time, budget and personnel that will be deployed to execute the risk management throughout the project

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lifespan. However, cautious and clear planning prepares the ground for and enhances the prospect of success of the project risk management process cycle. Planning the risk management activities guarantee that the degree of risk management is commensurate to the size of the project, its intricacy and category, and is sustainable with the project risk tolerance (TRB, 2014).

Apart from initial management planning, managing risk events can be achieved successfully by implementing the following proactive and effective risk management approaches - risk identification, risk assessment and risk management (Table 3.0).

Table 3.0: Steps to successfully manage risk events

3.1 Risk Identification:Risk identification commences early and lingers all-through the project with consistent review and analysis. It’s a critical part of the whole risk management cycle that provides avenue to identify, categorize and document risk events including opportunities that may considerably upset project performance. The process involves the application of checklist of potential risks and assuming the likelihood that the risk events may occur on the project. The checklist could be developed based on a past project experience, which is a valuable resources for classifying probable risk on a project. In addition, categorizing the

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risk sources could be another way to explore the prospective risk on a project which may include: cost, resources, technical, product, process, schedule, environment, political etc.

3.2 Risk Analysis:This involves the evaluation of the potential risks based on the likelihood that the risk event will happen and the severity or possible damage that could result from the event. The risks event varies greatly and not all risks are the same, both in terms of occurrence, cost or severity. It is critical to analyze identified risks in other to translate the potential risks that were acknowledged into decision-making statistics (Williams, 2004).

For each risk identified, judgments are determined from the following: Analysis of the likelihood of a loss or damage happening, and establishing a scale

(based either on numeric, percentage or category) representing the perceived probability of the risk.

Analysis of the impact of the damage if it occurs, outlining the consequences of the risk and rate the effect of the risk on the project.

Risk analysis builds the understanding about probable risks which are endowed with greatest likelihood of happening and can showcase the highest negative consequences on the project, which become the critical few. The likelihood and impact are together valued as high, medium or low. However, events that indicate high rating for both likelihood and impact are subject of critical consideration in the risk mitigation plan (Figure 2.0).

Figure 2.0: Analysis of Risk Likelihood and Impact

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The process of risk analysis is commonly divided into two categories to evaluate and prioritize risks - qualitative and quantitative analysis (APM, 1992).

3.2.1 Qualitative analysisQualitative analysis permits major risk events to be identified, screened and prioritized for further analysis and planning. It involves the assessment of each risk description and its consequences or a subjective classification of individual risk (e.g. high/medium/low) with respect to likelihood of risk events happening and its consequences. Qualitative analysis allows risk events to be prioritized whereby every risk that requires action is determined, bearing in mind that it could be costly and maybe needless to work on every risk identified. Events with both high-likelihood and high-impact infiltrate to the top of the ranking, while low-likelihood and low-impact events drip to the bottom.

Based on Boehm (1989), if the likelihood of occurrence and the impact of damage of an event are assigned numerical figures, the risk exposure can be calculated thus:

Risk Exposure = (Likelihood of risk occurring) X (Impact of the damage if risk occurred)

The prioritization of risk events are based on the numerical value of the risk exposure. Events with highest risk exposure are subject to further consideration like planning, mitigation, monitoring and communication, while lower ranked risk are only being monitored.

a) Probability-Impact Matrix:

This is considered as one of the majorly applied tools to rate risk events qualitatively. The plotted point of both likelihood and consequence ratings as indicated in figure 3.0 indicate the collective influence of the risk’s probability of happening and the anticipated severity of its un-mitigated impact on the project assuming it happens (TRB, 2014).

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Figure 3.0: Typical Probability-Impact Matrix (Source: TRB, 2014).

3.2.2 Quantitative analysisThis is applied to define the combined volume of risk the project has and to classify the major risk drivers to enhance efficient and effective allocation of project resources (TRB, 2014). Quantitative analysis usually includes erudite computation that requires:

Extent of uncertainty in cost and time approximations. Probabilistic grouping of each uncertainty (APM, 1992).

3.2.3 Risks measurement:Evaluating and prioritizing risks is largely concerned with ambiguous personal and societal risk postures and insights (Kahneman et al., 1982; Krimsky and Golding, 1992; Renn and Rohrmann, 2000), however, the challenges of risk analysis can be addressed effectively within the relative context of decision-utility theory (Geiger, 2003). Risk management apply decision to handle uncertainties, and decision theory suggests actual course of action require to handle uncertainty when information on the risk event is available.

a) Decision Theory:The phase that produces benefit is the ability to be able to select appropriate risk measures to counter the risk event. Decision theory identifies and properly evaluates critical sides of a risk event for recommending a suggested course of action. The critical portion of this theory that is typically useful to risk management is computing the expected cost of a risk event. However, RACI (responsible, accountable,

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consulted and informed) matrix assists to detect and outline the numerous responsibilities in the decision-making development (TRB, 2014).

Brim et al. (1962) proposed the following powerful stages of decision process: Problems identification. Gathering of essential information. Provision of potential solutions. Assessment of such solutions Choice of an approach for performance. Implementing such approach/decision.

The leading path to decision-making under risk is the expected utility, which is considered as a foremost hypothesis in expressive and normative uses (Schoemaker, 1982).

Utility Theory:According to Bernoulli (1954), “It becomes evident that no valid measurement of the value of a risk can be obtained without consideration being given to its utility”. Utility theory is however, exploited to equate and relate two or more choices. The expected utility (EU) theory deals with options that individual make when faced with uncertainty.

The EU of an event, with impact x and likelihood of y is derived by the multiplication of likelihood against the utility of the impact i.e.

EU(y, x) = y * U(x).

This theory can be applied to assess indifferences among certainty and uncertainty options. Utility is usually applied as a measure of satisfaction and acceptability of a specific choice in decision theory (Figure 4.0).

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Figure 4.0: Acceptability Matrix

The acceptability index indicates such risk events that can be mitigated, while the unacceptable should be transferred or avoided.

3.3 Risk Response Planning:

Risk response planning is developed to create room for proactive action for the prioritized risk events. This is important for the execution of appropriate countermeasures to eradicate or lessen the undesirable impact of risk on the project to zero or an acceptable level. This stage involves identification, assessment and selection of choices to put risk events at acceptable positions considering the project limitations and goals (TRB, 2014). In other words, this provides the best technique for managing identified risk events or capitalizing on available opportunities.

To adequately utilize the resources, it is significant to adapt the risk response plans to the kind and size of the risks expressed in the risk analysis and generates a simple risk response matrix (Figure 5.0). The following are prime choices open for responding to risk - accept, transfer, mitigate and avoid. Table 4.0 provides definition for each of these choices.

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Figure 5.0: Simple risk response matrix (Source: TRB, 2014)

Table 4.0: Primary options available for responding to risks

3.4 Risk Monitoring and Control:

Nevertheless, control may involve the act of; Executing, regulating or selecting substitute response plans. Identifying probable precautionary action and taking corrective steps. Intensifying risk management approach and re-examining critical steps in the risk

management process.

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The monitoring is done by revising the project updates; and evaluating the efficiency and usefulness of the risk management strategy, providing a coordination platform with concerned stakeholders to re-assess risk response plans as suitable, and could be utilized as contribution to lessons-learned for another projects in future (TRB, 2014).

4.0 Case Study: Crude Oil Production Upgrade

4.1 Project objective:ZADCO, a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has a strategic goal on behalf of its shareholders, to improve crude oil daily production at Upper Zakum Field from 550,000 bbl. to 750,000 bbl., sustainable for 25 years (ZADCO, 2012).

4.2 Project scope:The preliminary development plan by ZADCO was based on drilling from many well-head platform towers (WHPT) linked to satellite and central processing stations.

4.3 Risk identification:The plan required 24 additional WHPTs and related pipelines, together with upgrades to present facilities and rise in the number of jack-up rigs. These demands are considered harmful to the sustainability objectives of ZADCO. The following risk events are identified (ZADCO, 2012):

Continued exposure to HSE risks. Contractor and supplier supports. Development concerns in handling subsurface uncertainties. Challenges associated with prompt availability of jack-up rigs. Exorbitant costs exposure. Logistics interface and related support.

The risk identification as shown below (Figure 6.0) is generated in the risk register for the project with risk description and risk owner assigned.

Figure 6.0: Risk Identification

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4.4 Risk analysis:The identified risk events are characterized and prioritized to determine likelihood of risks happening and the consequences based on their criticality to the success of the project and significance to major stakeholders. Prioritizing the risk events helps in supporting successive decision making and risk response planning tasks (TRB, 2014).

The analysis indicated in figure 7.0 shows the grading from 1 to 5, apportioned to qualitatively evaluate the likelihood of the risk happening and the subsequent impact on the project. The severity of the risk event is a product of the likelihood and the impact, producing a rated list of risks that will instigate the team to concentrate on the topmost combined impact and likelihood risks so as to decide activities for responses.

Figure 7.0: Risk Analysis

4.4.1 Probability-Impact Matrix:This is considered as one of the majorly applied tools to rate risk events qualitatively. The plotted point of both likelihood and consequence ratings indicate the collective influence of the risk’s probability of happening and the anticipated severity of its un-mitigated impact on the project assuming it happens.

Table 5.0 is the summary of probability and impact ratings corroborating the severity of each of the risk event.

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Table 5.0: Summary of risk events probability and impact ratings

The result generated from the risks probability-impact matrix for all the identified risk events indicates that two of the risk events (risks B & F) are medium risks, while the remaining four (risks A, C, D & E) are considered as high risks (figure 8.0).

Figure 8.0: Risks Probability-Impact Matrix

Nevertheless, to substantiate the outcome from above probability-impact matrix, the acceptability matrix in figure 9.0 indicates unacceptable risks for A and E.

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Figure 9.0: Risk Events Acceptability Matrix

4.5 Risk Response Planning:After completing the analysis of the risk events, required actions were branded and recorded in the risk register to react to the risk events according to the seriousness of the impact and the likelihood of each risk happening. The reaction is determined by applying typical choices of actions such as accept, transfer, mitigate or avoid. An explicit action to be implemented is documented together with anticipated cost exposure (none, negligible or avoidable) to undertake such actions (Figure 10.0). However, it’s expected that project progress status is updated as soon as response feedback is available.

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Figure 10.0: Risk Response Planning

From the risk response planning above, only one risk event is “transferred” in other to be better-managed by third party service provider to reduce risk, and two of the risk events could be mitigated and controlled by monitoring all-related processes and carefully exploring the available inherent opportunities in the artificial island drilling concept which certainly appeared to be more cost-effective on a long-term. However, the remaining three risks are to be avoided to eliminate the root-cause while embarking on developing new artificial islands for the drilling campaign which is considered to have the following benefits: Offers maximum flexibility and robust re-development of reservoir. Reduces lifecycle facility maintenance costs. Requires cheaper and cost-effective land rig to drill. Low HSE risk.

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4.6 Risk Monitoring and Control:This is the stage whereby periodic project progress report are reviewed and followed-up. The review involves: Assessing the efficacy of the risk response plans. Determining if risk ranking should be reorganized. Identifying if there is new risk to be added.

Figure 11.0: Risk Monitoring and Control

The updates from above risk register (Figure 11.0) showing the project risk monitoring and control review status indicates the approval from the stakeholders to embark on artificial island drilling concept based on the strength of available opportunities inherent

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in this conception and the ability to be able to avoid related risk events associated with initial WHPT drilling campaign.

5.0 Conclusion:Every project certainly carries some proportion of risks and uncertainties. It’s important to anticipate these threats and instigate contingency plans to manage these risks if they occur. Risk management is critical in providing service-oriented tasks timely, amidst the allocated scope, budget, schedule and other resources. A well-implemented process simplify project management by outlining a reliable methodology by which risk and opportunities can be analyzed, controlled, monitored and disseminated to stakeholders. Implementing an efficient project management process assist in providing a successfully managed risk events in a project

Project risk management is principally implemented to enhance the opportunity of projects accomplishing the set-objective. However, an effective project management together with a well-administered project-plan represents formidable elements that mutually assist to minimize possible risk by early identification and instigating appropriate remedial measures and processes.

 

 

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