Malapportionment, Gerrymandering, and Seat Increase

- How GE14 may be won in the next 12 months

Dr Wong Chin Huat Fellow, Penang Institute

Resource Person, BERSIH 2.0-Engage-DART

2014.04.04

• View 1: Malapportionment

By Cheng Eng Aun

Violation of the “1 Person, 1 Vote, 1 Value” Principle?

• View 2: Malapportionment + Gerrymandering

Violation of the “1 Person, 1 Vote, 1 Value” Principle?

47.38%

20.39%

15.71% 14.77%

59.91%

13.51%

17.12%

9.46%

126.00%

66.00%

109.00%

64.00%

BN PKR DAP PAS

Seats-Votes Disproportionality in the Parliamentary Elections 2013

Vote % Seat % Relative Value

• View 2: Malapportionment + Gerrymandering

Violation of the “1 Person, 1 Vote, 1 Value” Principle?

If 1 Vote = RM1 and RM1 buys you 1kg sugar

BN 1.26KG

PKR 0.66KG

DAP 1.09KG

PAS 0.64KG

PR 0.79KG

Seats in Parliament

By Thomas Fann

RECEIVED

RECEIVED

RECEIVED

RECEIVED

RECEIVED

Election

Votes for Main Opposition Parties to match 1 Alliance/ BN vote

Largest Opposition Party Second Largest Opposition Party

Third Largest Opposition Party

1955 PN Infinity PAS 2.54 NAP Infinity

1959 PAS 2.34 Labour 2.31 PPP 2.25

1964 SF 12.25 PAS 2.47 UDP 6.65

1969 PAS 3.39 DAP 1.79 Gerakan 1.81

1974 DAP 4.52 SNAP 1.37 Pekemas 11.39

1978 DAP 2.72 PAS 7.03 Pekemas Infinity

1982 DAP 4.75 PAS 6.30 PSRM Infinity

1986 DAP 2.27 PAS 40.41 PSRM Infinity

1990 DAP 2.10 S46 4.48 PAS 2.28

1995 DAP 3.33 S46 4.22 PAS 2.59

1999 PAS 1.45 DAP 3.28 PKN 6.11

2004 PAS 8.15 DAP 2.58 PKR 26.08

2008 PKR 1.67 PAS 1.70 DAP 1.37

2013 PKR 1.91 PAS 1.98 DAP 1.19

BN’s 3 Magic Wands

• Malapportionment –manipulation in electorate size

• Gerrymandering –manipulation in electorate composition

• Seat Increase –Manipulation on parties’ and

politicians’ goal-setting

Three Issues: Conceptual Map

Issue Consideration Decision Maker

Pre-1962 Post-1973 (by design)

2003 & 2005 Redelineation (in practice)

Total Seats Effectiveness of Parliament; Quality of Representation;

Step 1: Parliament (Article 46) *2/3 majority

Step 1: Parliament (Article 46) *2/3 majority

Step 2: *Election Commission* (Article 46) *2/3 majority

Interstate Apportionment

Electorate Size and Power of State

Step 2: Election Commission (Article 116) Districting

(issues of gerrymandering + Intra-state malapportionment)

Electorate Size and Local Ties

Step 2: Election Commission (13th Schedule) *50% approval

Step 1: Election Commission (13th Schedule) *50% approval

MALAPPORTIONMENT PART 1

MALAPPORTIONMENT

Part II

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Sabak BernamKapar

Putrajaya

Key: Article 46 Culprit: Parliament

INTER-STATE INTRA-STATE

Inter-state and Intra-state Malapportionment

Inter-state and intra-state Malapportionment: An Overview

By Cheng Eng Aun 12

The yellow bars show the average size of parliamentary constituencies in each state/territory. The differences in height show the extent of inter-state malapportionment.

Every little chips show the size of a parliamentary constituency in the respective state/territory. The range shows the extent of intra-state malapportionment.

Federal Constitution, Thirteenth Schedule, Part 1, Section 2

(c) the number of electors within each constituency in a State ought to be approximately equal except that, having regard to the greater difficulty of reaching electors in the country districts and the other disadvantage facing rural constituencies, a measure of weightage for area ought to be given to such constituencies;

• Equal apportionment is rule, malapportionment has to

be exceptional and justifiably pro-rural

Constitutional Provision Against Malapportionment

13

56,007

72,387

36,989

19,304

P9 Alor Star P16 Baling N29 Sri Serdang N30 Kinrara

Intra-State Malapportionment within the same state (Kedah) and

the same Parliamentary Constituency (P103 Puchong)

Proposed Electorate at the 2003 Redelineation (2001 figure)

Anti-rural and Unjustified Malapportionment

14

Is Baling a Metropolis? Is Kinrara twice

as backward as Sri Serdang?

GERRYMANDERING PART 2

Federal Constitution, Thirteenth Schedule, Part 1, Section 2

(a) while having regard to the desirability of giving all electors reasonably convenient opportunities of going to the polls, constituencies ought to be delimited so that they do not cross State boundaries and regard ought to be had to the inconvenience of State constituencies crossing the boundaries of federal constituencies;

(b) regard ought to be to the administrative facilities available within the constituencies for the establishment of the necessary registration and polling machines;

(d) regard ought to be had to the inconveniences attendant on alterations of constituencies, and to the maintenance of local ties.

Constitutional Provision Against Gerrymandering

16

Gerrymandering Type 1: Crossing Municipal/District Boundaries

17

1 Parliamentary Constituency in 4 Local Authorities!

Gerrymandering Type 2: Arbitrary Combination of Communities (within the same Municipality/District)

18

The State Constituency of Selat Klang consists of two unconnected parts: urban settlement and islands.

Gerrymandering Type 3: Partitioning Neighbourhoods

N31 Subang Jaya N32 Seri Setia

19

• Address：278-D, Kg Abdullah, 85000 Segamat.

• Constituencies before 2003：P125 Segamat

• Constituencies after 2003

– Mr Ong ：

• P140 Segamat - N02 Jementah

– Mrs Ong and other family members：

• P141 Sekijang - N03 Pemanis

One bed, two constituencies?

20

Gerrymandering Type 4: Teleporting Voters

http://www.pasukanp140.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/map-kg-abdullah-1024x887.png

Transfer of voters by way of electoral roll re-organisation after constituency redelineation.

21

SEAT INCREASE PART 3

Seat Increase: More People, More Lawmakers?

23

Seat Increase:

Closing Inter-state Malapportionment?

By Cheng Eng Aun 24

The yellow bars show the average size of parliamentary constituencies in each state/territory. The differences in height show the extent of inter-state malapportionment.

Every little chips show the size of a parliamentary constituency in the respective state/territory. The range shows the extent of intra-state malapportionment.

Why must we have more lawmakers?

435 435

94

314

1911 2013

The Growth of Population and Congress

in US (1911-2013)

US Congressmen US Population (M)

144

222

9.4

26

1965 2005

The Growth of Population and Parliament

in Malaysia (1965-2005)

Malaysian MPs Malaysian Population (M)

25

Malaysia Boleh --- Let’s have 26 more MPs than India in 75 years?

26

154

177

180

192

193

219 222 253

552

288

328

374

417

465 518

578

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Projected Parliamentary Expansion in India and Malaysia

Number of Malaysian MPs and Projection (after GE13)

Maximum Number of Indian MPs and Projection (after GE13)

GE04-GE07:

+15%!

GE07-GE09:

+8.5%!

GE09-GE11:

+14%!

Projected Expansion Rate in GE14 and after

+14% / 2 GEs

Redelineation First, Seat Increase Later

Peninsula and Labuan

Sabah Sarawak

Constituency Redelination

1st Notice of Display 2002.08.08 2002.08.08 2005.01.07

2nd Notice of Display 2003.01.16 2002.12.26 2005.04.22

EC report laid before Dewan Rakyat

2003.04.03 2003.04.03 2005.06.23

Draft Order passed by Dewan Rakyat

2003.04.08 2003.04.08 2005.07.04

Order Gazetted 2003.05.01 2003.05.01 2005.08.01

Seat Increase

Amendment of Article 46 passed by Dewan Rakyat

2003.06.19 2003.06.19 2005.09.29

Amendment of Article 46 Gazetted

2003.08.14 2003.08.14 2005.12.31

Acknowledgement: Parliamentary Library of Malaysia; The Malaysian Bar especially Dr Pathmavathy Satyamoorthy, Santhi Latha and Anusha Gopalan Krishnan; Lu Wei Hoong and Cheng Eng Aun

Why the Confusions? Issue Consideration Decision Maker

Pre-1962 Post-1973 (by design)

2003 & 2005 Redelineation (in practice)

Total Seats Effectiveness of Parliament; Quality of Representation;

Step 1: Parliament (Article 46) *2/3 majority

Step 1: Parliament (Article 46) *2/3 majority

Step 2: *Election Commission* (Article 46) *2/3 majority

Interstate Apportionment

Electorate Size and Power of State

Step 2: Election Commission (Article 116) Districting

(issues of gerrymandering + Intra-state malapportionment)

Electorate Size and Local Ties

Step 2: Election Commission (13th Schedule) *50% approval

Step 1: Election Commission (13th Schedule) *50% approval

• Consideration 1: effectiveness of Parliament

• Consideration 2: quality of representation

How big should the Parliament be?

29

An average MP spoke and was heard for

2012

02：31：37

The Dewan Rakyat met for

560：58：00

Should we have MORE MPs so that each can speak LESS?

By Nicholas Chan

56

89

52

133

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Votes (100,000)

Seats

GE13: PR-lead in votes, BN-lead in seats

BN PR

BN-lead = 44 seats

PR-lead = 386,285 votes

Another “minority government” in GE14?

Minority Government will continue if BN-lead in seats can be maintained or widened despite status quo or widening of PR-lead in votes.

30

• In GE13, BN won 52.45% of total votes in Johor Bahru, Pulai, Pasir Gudang and Tebrau

• BN-PR’s vote gap = 16,062 votes (4.7%)

• BN-PR’s seat gap = 4-0 = 4 seats

GE13 (Scenario 0): BN-PR seat gap in JB4 = 4 – 0 = 4

P160 Johor Bahru Shahrir Abdul Samad (UMNO)

56.46%

P161 Pulai Nur Jazlan Mohamed (UMNO)

51.91%

P158 Tebrau Khoo Soo Seng (MCA)

51.13%

P159 Pasir Gudang Normala Abdul Samad (UMNO)

50.54%

31

Who should Gerry help?

• Assuming BN’s support drop by 3% points in all four constituencies, all but Johor Bahru would fall to PR.

• BN-PR’s seat gap = 1-3 = -2 seats

• From +4 to -4, BN would be 6 seats closer than in GE13 to losing Putrajaya

GE14 Scenario 1: BN support - 3% points

BN-PR seat gap in JB4 = 1-3 = -2

P160 Johor Bahru Shahrir Abdul Samad (UMNO)

56.46%

P161 Pulai Nur Jazlan Mohamed (UMNO)

51.91%

P158 Tebrau Khoo Soo Seng (MCA)

51.13%

P159 Pasir Gudang Normala Abdul Samad (UMNO)

50.54%

32

Who should Gerry help?

Can gerrymandering save BN?

Blue – BN >= 55% Light Blue – BN 50%-<55% Red – PR > 55% Magenta – PR 50%-<55%

By HY

GE14 Scenario 2: Scn1 + Gerrymandering

BN-PR seat gap in JB4 = -2 No matter how much adjustment is made, only 1 seat (JB) can be made safe. With a drop of BN support by 3% points, likely, BN-PR seat gap = 1-3 = -2

Constituency

GE 13 After Redelineation

Voters BN's Margin Voters BN's

Margin %

P158 Tebrau 90,482 1,767 95,695 2,587 2.70%

P159 Pasir Gudang 101,041 935 98,936 1,671 1.69%

P160 Johor Bahru 96,321 10,134 96,955 6,154 6.35%

P161 Pulai 100,490 3,226 97,748 2,095 2.14% 34

By HY

GE14 Scenario 3: Scn2 + 1 new seat

BN-PR seat gap in JB4 = 4-1 =3

With addition of just 1 seat, 3 BN seats can be made super safe, and 1 winnable by BN while PR gets 1 super safe seat (JB Timor).

Constituency After Redelineation

Voters BN's Margin %

P158 Terbrau 78394 7187 9.17%

P159 Pasir Gudang 73975 8324 11.25%

P160 JB Timor 78807 -17029 -21.61%

P160A JB Barat 79034 10463 13.24%

P161 Pulai 78124 3562 4.56% 35

By HY

Possible Scenario in Selangor • In these 5 seats,

BN-PR = 2-3 = -1 seat

• Both BN seats are marginal

• Assuming a 1% point swing to PR in GE14, then

BN-PR = 0-5 = -5 seats

• Since all are over-sized by national standard, at least 1 extra seat may be added.

• With gerrymandering, then possibly

BN-PR = 3-3 = 0 seat

Hulu Selangor 85.697 (BN: 50.89%)

Kuala Selangor 62,298 (BN: 50.42%)

Selayang 101,236 (BN: 37.90%)

Gombak 123,290 (BN 47.53%)

Ampang 83,135 (BN 40.60%)

X

36

X likely location of new constituency

Possible Scenario in Terengganu

• In GE13, BN-PR = 4-4 =0

• With 634,944 voters (10.5x national average), Terengganu is entitled to 2 more seats.

• With 2 new seats, gerrymandering and malapportionment may secure BN at least 6 seats, likely

In GE14, BN-PR = 6-4 =2

Kuala Terengganu 94,406 (BN: 43.23%)

Besut 72,566 (BN: 56.71%)

Hulu Terengganu 63,543 (BN: 57.38%)

Marang 90,795 (BN 46.83%)

Kemaman 91,442 (BN: 57.81%)

Dungun 78,174 (BN: 46.78%)

Kuala Nerus 76,238 (BN: 49.55%)

Setiu 67,280 (BN: 56.79%)

X

X

37

X likely location of

new constituency

What about other states?

Seat increase may likely benefit BN in also • Kedah • Kelantan • Malacca • KL • Sabah • Sarawak • Pahang • Perak

WHAT IMPLICATIONS? PART 4

Peaceful Regime Change in next 10 years may be near impossible

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00%

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f Se

ats

by

the

larg

est

op

po

soti

on

blo

c (1

95

5-2

01

3)

Percentage of Votes Obtained by the largest opposotion bloc (1955-2013)

How many % of votes does Opposition needs to win 50% of seats?

Estimation for 50% of votes

58%!

More ethno-religious outbiddings!

29.55%

2.10%

31.65%

39.64%

6.31%

45.95%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

UMNO+Perkasa PBB UMNO+Perkasa+PBB

Muslim Supremacy in Construction? (Muslim-based BN in GE13)

Vote % Seat %

What’s in store for the future?

• Corruption, power abuse and mismanagement?

• Middle-income trap?

• Ethno-religious conflicts?

• Failed state?

WHAT CAN WE DO? PART 5

EC informing PM and Speaker of Dewan Rakyat

EC publishing a NOTICE in Gazette and Newspaper(s) about the effect of recommended boundaries and venues of maps display.

EC make REVISION

INQUIRY

30 Days to make OBJECTIONS – 1. State

governments 2. Local authorities 3. Group of 100+

affected voters.

EC submit REPORT to PM

PM to lay report before the Dewan Rakyat with a DRAFT ORDER (with or without

modifications to recommendations)

Dewan Rakyat to approve the draft order on a SIMPLE MAJORITY

PM to AMEND the draft order.

YANG DI-PERTUAN AGONG to make the Order

The Constituency Delineation Process according to Part 2, Schedule 13, Federal Constitution

Objections fulfilling conditions

No objections or not fulfilling conditions

Objections accepted

Objections rejected

Mandatory to repeat once

Can proceed after 2nd revision

No

Yes

By Dr Wong Chin Huat

Three Battles To Win

Battle Constituency Redelineation Seat Increase

1. Redelineation Process under the EC

1a. Objection Efforts by DART, Tindak Malaysia, Undi Malaysia

1b. Inquiry

2. Court of Law Judicial Review (on unreasonable rejections of objection before or in inquiry; on unjustifiable exclusion of constituencies)

Injunction (if the redelineation is based on increased seats but starts before any amendment to Article 46, et al. )

3. Court of Public Opinion

Public Outcry (both if the earlier processes fail or if the PM presents a draft order worse than the EC’s recommendations)

Growing Consensus (against seat increase and on the need for Parliamentary Reform)

Battle 1a: Cases of Objections in 2003 and 2005

46

Objections Classified 2003 – Peninsula

and Labuan 2003 – Sabah

2005 – Sarawak

FIRST DISPLAY

Objections not fulfilling conditions 142 38 13

Objections fulfilling Conditions

By State or local governments 5

By 100 or more affected voters 138 28 13

TOTAL 285 66 26

SECOND DISPLAY

Objections not fulfilling conditions 36 14 2

Objections fulfilling Conditions

By State or local governments

By 100 or more affected voters 11 2 8

TOTAL 47 16 10

National Launch of DART on 9th March 2014, Menara PKNS, PJ

Battles 1a, 1b and 2: What does DART do?

To increase the QUANTITY of objections.

To raise the QUALITY of objections.

How does DART work?

Battle 1a: Make effective OBJECTIONS based on the Constitutional provisions (in collaboration with the Bar)

Check List Templates of Objection Letter Battle 1b: Make effective CASES in Inquiries

Alternative Boundaries Google Earth Excel

Battle 2: (In collaboration with the Bar) provide LEGAL SUPPORT for affected voters whose objections are denied due process in Battles 1a or 1b to file for Judicial reviews

Preparation for All Battles Especially 1b Current Parliamentary Constituencies

within MPSJ

Subang-Sunway 30,108

USJ 42,967

Kinrara 35,947

Bandar Puchong 42,853

Seri Serdang 27,684

Seri Kembangan 29,893

Selangor State Constituency Average: 36,586; max 42,074 (+15%); min 31,098 (-15%); rural min 24,003 (-33%)

Preparation for All Battles Especially 1b Proposed State Constituencies within MPSJ ?

Subang Jaya 115,928

Serdang 93,524

Selangor Parliamentary Constituency Average: 93,129; max 107,098 (+15%); min 79,159 (-15%); rural min 62,117 (-33%)

Preparation for All Battles Especially 1b

Proposed Parliamentary Constituencies within MPSJ ?

Preparation for All Battles Especially 1b: You Vote. You Draw The Lines.