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Economic impact of Climate Change on the Cypriot agricultural sector

Working Paper

Markou Marinos, Stylianou Andreas

Agricultural Research Institute

Adriana Bruggeman*, Christos Zoumides+, Stelios Pashiardis‡, Panos Hadjinicolaou*, Manfred A. Lange* and T. Zachariadi s+

* The Cyprus Institute, +Cyprus University of Technology, ‡Cyprus Meteorological Service

Anastasios Michaelides, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

Nicosia, August 2011

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The economic impact of climate change on Cypriot agriculture

Contents

Main Report

Περίληψη στα Ελληνικά - Executive summary

Policy recommendations and suggestions

PART ONE

Cost of climate change on agricultural activities. By Marinos Markou, Andreas

Sylianou, (Agricultural Research Institute)

Chapter 1

Introduction

1.1 Literature review

1.2 Introduction

1.3 Structure of the study

Chapter 2

The expected impact of climate change on agricultural activities

2.1 The impact of temperature increase on crops

2.2 Changes in the availability of water

2.3 Soil degradation (salinity, erosion, fertility)

2.4 Intensification of pests, diseases and herbs

2.5 Climate change and Cyprus

2.5.1 The impact of climate change on the Southern Mediterranean region

2.5.2 Climate tendencies in Cyprus

2.5.3 Greenhouse gas emissions in Cyprus

2.5.4 Water resources in Cyprus

2.5.5 Desertification

Chapter 3

Methodology

3.1 Expected economic impact of climate change to the cultivated crops

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3.2 Analysis of statistical data

3.3 Contingent analysis method

3.4 Adaptation to climate change

Chapter 4

Estimation results

4.1 Results from statistical data analysis

4.2 Results from Contingent Analysis

4.3 Results from climate variability simulation

4.4. Cost of adaptation

Chapter 5

Conclusions

References

Appendix 1

General review of the Cypriot agricultural sector

Appendix 2

Effect of climate variability and climate change on crop production and water

resources in Cyprus. By Adriana Bruggeman*, Christos Zoumides+, Manfred A.

Lange* and T. Zachariadis+ (* The Cyprus Institute +Cyprus University of Technology)

Appendix 3

Estimation of impacts of Climate Change using Non-Market Valuation Method.

By Anastasios Michaelides (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki), Marinos Markou

and Andreas Stylianou (Agricultural Research Institute)

Appendix 4

Questionnaire used for Contingent Valuation Method (in Greek)

Appendix 5

Tables

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ΠΕΡΙΛΗΨΗ

Κύριος στόχος της παρούσας εργασίας είναι η αποτίµηση σε χρηµατικές

µονάδες του κόστους της κλιµατικής αλλαγής στην κυπριακή γεωργία. Προκειµένου

να επιτευχθεί αυτός ο στόχος έχουν χρησιµοποιηθεί τρεις διαφορετικές προσεγγίσεις.

Η πρώτη εφαρµόζει ένα κλιµατολογικό µοντέλο προσαρµοσµένο στις τοπικές

συνθήκες της Κύπρου και η δεύτερη χρησιµοποιεί τη Μεθοδολογία Contingent

Valuation. Ως τρίτη προσέγγιση και καθαρά µόνο για λόγους υποστήριξης του

επιχειρήµατος ότι η Κύπρος υφίσταται επιπτώσεις από την κλιµατική µεταβολή

γίνεται ανάλυση των διαθέσιµων στατιστικών στοιχείων για τις επιδόσεις του

γεωργικού τοµέα τα τελευταία χρόνια.

H φυτική παραγωγή στην Κύπρο περιορίζεται λόγω του ιδιαίτερα µεταβλητού

κλίµατος, της χαµηλής βροχόπτωσης και των υψηλών θερµοκρασιών. Επιπρόσθετα, η

παγκόσµια κλιµατική αλλαγή και οι πολιτικές που προσβλέπουν στην αειφόρο

διαχείριση και χρήση των υδάτινων πόρων, αναµένεται να επιφέρουν µείωση στην

προσφορά του νερού άρδευσης. Κύριοι στόχοι του κλιµατολογικού µοντέλου

(Παράρτηµα 2) ήταν: (α) η αποτίµηση της διαχρονικής εξέλιξης των κλιµατικών

παραµέτρων κατά τη διάρκεια των τελευταίων 30 ετών, (β) η εκτίµηση της επίδρασης

της µεταβλητότητας του κλίµατος σε σχέση µε τις αλλαγές στη χρήση γεωργικής γης,

στην παραγωγή και στη ζήτηση νερού άρδευσης και (γ) η εκτίµηση των επιπτώσεων

στη φυτική παράγωγη για τα επτά επόµενα έτη της τρέχουσας δεκαετίας (2013/14-

2019/20), σύµφωνα µε πιθανά σενάρια κλιµατικής αλλαγής και µειωµένης παροχής

νερού άρδευσης. Αναπτύχθηκε ένα ηµερήσιο µοντέλο εκτίµησης του ισοζυγίου του

εδαφικού νερού, το οποίο αναφέρεται ως µοντέλο Green-Blue και βασίζεται στη

µεθοδολογία διπλών φυτικών συντελεστών του Παγκοσµίου Οργανισµού Τροφίµων

και Γεωργίας (FAO). Το µοντέλο υπολογίζει τη χρήση εδαφικού νερού στις

καλλιέργειες το οποίο προέρχεται τόσο από τη βροχόπτωση (πράσινο νερό) όσο και

από την άρδευση (µπλε νερό). Έχουν χρησιµοποιηθεί τα δεδοµένα που ήταν

διαθέσιµα από τις Αγροτικές Στατιστικές και τις Γεωργικές Απογραφές και αφορούν

την έκταση και φυτική παραγωγή των τελευταίων 30 ετών (1979/80-2008/09), για 87

καλλιέργειες σε 431 κοινότητες της Κύπρου. Για την προσοµοίωση των µελλοντικών

σεναρίων χρησιµοποιήθηκαν οι καλλιεργήσιµες εκτάσεις που ήταν εγγεγραµµένες

στον Κυπριακό Οργανισµό Αγροτικών Πληρωµών (ΚΟΑΠ) το 2010.

Χρησιµοποιήθηκαν επίσης ηµερήσια κλιµατικά δεδοµένα από 34 µετεωρολογικούς

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και 70 βροχοµετρικούς σταθµούς για τον υπολογισµό του ισοζυγίου του εδαφικού

νερού.

Και στους τέσσερις σταθµούς που είχαν επιλεγεί για την ανάλυση των

κλιµατικών τάσεων (Λάρνακα, Κόρνος, Πλατάνια και Πρόδροµος), παρατηρήθηκαν

στατιστικά σηµαντικές ανοδικές τάσεις στον µηνιαίο µέσο όρο των ελάχιστων

ηµερήσιων θερµοκρασιών κατά τους καλοκαιρινούς µήνες, σε επίπεδο

σηµαντικότητας 5%. Όσον αφορά τις µέγιστες ηµερήσιες θερµοκρασίες, σηµαντικά

θετικές τάσεις παρατηρήθηκαν στην οροσειρά του Τροόδους και από τον σταθµό

στον Πρόδροµο (για πέντε µήνες), στους ανατολικούς πρόποδες της οροσειράς από

τον σταθµό στον Κόρνο (για επτά µήνες) και στα ανατολικά παράλια από τον σταθµό

Λάρνακας (για εννέα µήνες). Αναφορικά µε τα επίπεδα βροχόπτωσης,

παρατηρήθηκαν µεγάλες διακυµάνσεις σε όλους του σταθµούς, µε τη µόνη

στατιστικά σηµαντική τάση να βρίσκεται στον Κόρνο όπου παρατηρήθηκε πτώση

κατά τον µήνα Μάρτιο.

Η µέγιστη συνολική έκταση των ετήσιων καλλιεργειών παρατηρήθηκε το

2005 και ανήλθε στα 101,9*103 εκτάρια, έπειτα από τρεις διαδοχικά βροχερές

χρονιές, ενώ η ελάχιστη έκταση παρατηρήθηκε κατά το έτος ανοµβρίας του 2008,

όπου συρρικνώθηκε στα 70,9*103 εκτάρια. Όσον αφορά τις εκτάσεις µόνιµων

καλλιεργειών, παρατηρήθηκε µείωση κατά σχεδόν 40% την τελευταία τριακονταετία,

από 62,2*103 εκτάρια το 1980 στα 38,4*103 εκτάρια το 2009. Οι κύριες απώλειες

αφορούν τις εκτάσεις αµπελοκαλλιέργειας, οι οποίες µειώθηκαν από 34,3*103

εκτάρια στα 8,3*103 εκτάρια, και τις εκτάσεις ξηρών καρπών οι οποίες

συρρικνώθηκαν στα 5,3*103 εκτάρια από 13,3*103 εκτάρια, ενώ οι ελαιοκοµικές

εκτάσεις αυξήθηκαν από 5,7*103 εκτάρια στα 12,0*103 εκτάρια.

Η περίοδος 1980/81-2008/09 χωρίστηκε σε επτά ξηρά, δεκαπέντε µέσα και

επτά βροχερά έτη, µε βάση τον δείκτη ξηρασίας (αναλογία βροχόπτωσης προς

εξατµισοδιαπνοή αναφοράς). Η µέση ετήσια φυτική παραγωγή ήταν κατά 8%

χαµηλότερη στη διάρκεια των ξηρών ετών και κατά 5% υψηλότερη στη διάρκεια των

βροχερών ετών, σε σχέση µε τη φυτική παραγωγή των δεκαπέντε µέσων ετών.

Σύµφωνα µε τους υπολογισµούς του µοντέλου, η συνολική χρήση µπλε νερού ήταν

κατά µέσο όρο 190*106 κ.µ./έτος καθ' όλη τη διάρκεια της περιόδου 1980/81-

2009/10, ενώ ήταν µόλις 2% υψηλότερη κατά τη διάρκεια των ξηρών ετών και 2%

χαµηλότερη κατά τη διάρκεια των βροχερών ετών. Η µέγιστη χρήση µπλε νερού

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σηµειώθηκε την περίοδο 1989/90 (219*106 κ.µ.), ενώ η ελάχιστη έφτασε στο

ιστορικά χαµηλό ρεκόρ των 150*106 κ.µ. κατά την πολύ ξηρή περίοδο 2007/08. Η

συνολική χρήση πράσινου νερού κυµάνθηκε µεταξύ 135*106 κ.µ. την περίοδο

2007/08 και 368*106 κ.µ. την περίοδο 2003/04.

Οι αρδευόµενες εκτάσεις καταλάµβαναν κατά µέσο όρο το 23% της

συνολικής καλλιεργούµενης γης, ενώ συνέβαλλαν κατά 65% στη συνολική φυτική

παραγωγή, καταναλώνοντας το 48% του µπλε και πράσινου νερού. Οι

καλλιεργούµενες εκτάσεις που εξαρτιόνταν µόνο από τη βροχόπτωση παρήγαγαν

κατά µέσο όρο 273*103 τόνους φυτικής παραγωγής ανά έτος, χρησιµοποιώντας

277*106 κ.µ. πράσινο νερό ανά έτος. Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί ότι αν το νερό αυτό δεν

αξιοποιούνταν από τις ξηρικές καλλιέργειες, θα επέστρεφε στην ατµόσφαιρα χωρίς

ιδιαίτερο τοπικό όφελος.

Οι προβλέψεις κλιµατικών αλλαγών που αφορούν την Κύπρο, σύµφωνα µε το

σύνολο έξι περιφερειακών κλιµατικών µοντέλων που βασίζονται στο µέσο σενάριο

εκποµπών ρύπων

A1B(IPCC-SRES) που έχει δηµοσιεύσει η ∆ιακυβερνητική Επιτροπή των Ηνωµένων

Εθνών για την Κλιµατική Αλλαγή, υποδεικνύουν αύξηση της θερµοκρασίας και

υψηλή µεταβλητότητα στα επίπεδα βροχόπτωσης µε ελαφριά πτωτική τάση για την

περίοδο 2013/14-2019/20. Για την προσοµοίωση των κλιµατικών αλλαγών,

αναπτύχθηκαν δύο σενάρια: (1) σενάριο χειρότερης περίπτωσης, το οποίο

χαρακτηρίζεται από τα καταγεγραµµένα κλιµατικά δεδοµένα των επτά ξηρών ετών

της περιόδου 1980/81-2008/09 και (2) σενάριο µέσων κλιµατικών συνθηκών, που

αποτελείται από τρία ξηρά, δύο µέσα και δύο βροχερά έτη, µε το καθένα να

χαρακτηρίζεται από την υψηλότερη τιµή εξατµισοδιαπνοής στην κατηγορία του. Και

στα δύο σενάρια, η ζήτηση αρδεύσιµου νερού περιορίστηκε στα 129*106 κ.µ./έτος,

όπως προτείνει το Σχέδιο ∆ιαχείρισης Λεκάνης Απορροής που υιοθέτησε πρόσφατα

το Τµήµα Αναπτύξεως Υδάτων, το οποίο συνιστά 25% µείωση όλων των αρδεύσιµων

εκτάσεων που ήταν εγγεγραµµένες στον ΚΟΑΠ το 2010. Η υπολογιζόµενη συνολική

ετήσια παραγωγή για την περίοδο 2013/14-2019/20 µειώθηκε κατά µέσο όρο 41%

υπό το σενάριο 1 και 43% υπό το σενάριο 2, σε σχέση µε τον µέσο όρο της περιόδου

1980/81-2008/09. Τα αποτελέσµατα αυτά υποδεικνύουν ότι στο εγγύς µέλλον, οι

πολιτικές διαχείρισης υδάτινων πόρων αναµένεται να επηρεάσουν σε µεγάλο βαθµό

τη γεωργία. Φυσικά, η διαθεσιµότητα αρδεύσιµου νερού είναι πιθανό να µειωθεί

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επιπρόσθετα και λόγω της κλιµατικής αλλαγής. Καταληκτικά, η ανάλυση των

αποτελεσµάτων του µοντέλου που εφαρµόστηκε, κατέδειξε σηµαντική διακύµανση

στη χρήση νερού ανά έτος, τόσο ανάµεσα στις καλλιέργειες όσο και στις κοινότητες,

υποδεικνύοντας ότι υπάρχουν πολλαπλές δυνατότητες προσαρµογής της Κυπριακή

γεωργίας στις επερχόµενες κλιµατικές αλλαγές.

Η ανάλυση δύο πιθανών σεναρίων κλιµατικής αλλαγής που προέκυψαν από το

κλιµατολογικό µοντέλο, αντιπροσωπεύονται από περισσότερα ξηρά έτη, υψηλότερη

εξάτµιση, και λιγότερη παροχή αρδευτικού νερού, η οποία είχε ως αποτέλεσµα στη

µείωση της αρδευόµενης κατά το 2010 έκτασης κατά 25%, προβλέπουν πιθανή

µείωση από 41 µέχρι 43% στη συνολική απόδοση της φυτικής παραγωγής το

2013/14-2019/2020, σε σχέση µε την περίοδο1980/81-2008/09. Λαµβάνοντας υπόψη

ότι η προστιθέµενη αξία της φυτικής παραγωγής είναι κοντά στα €200 εκατ. η

απώλεια της φυτικής παραγωγής κατά την περίοδο 2014-2020 θα ανέλθει σε € 574

έως € 602 εκατοµµύρια.

Σύµφωνα µε τα διαθέσιµα στατιστικά στοιχεία υπολογίζεται ότι κατά µέσο

όρο η προστιθέµενη αξία της φυτικής παραγωγής µειώνεται κατά 4% κατά τη

διάρκεια των «κακών» χρονιών. Ως «κακές» θεωρούνται οι χρονιές στη διάρκεια των

οποίων η µέση βροχόπτωση είναι κάτω, ή πολύ πιο κάτω από τη µέση ετήσια

βροχόπτωση. Με βάση τα κλιµατικά δεδοµένα που καταγράφηκαν στις προηγούµενες

τρεις δεκαετίες, αναµένεται ότι κατά τη διάρκεια της επταετούς προγραµµατικής

περιόδου 2014-2020 τέσσερις χρονιές θα είναι «κακές» µε βροχοπτώσεις κάτω του

µέσου όρου. Με την προστιθέµενη αξία της φυτικής παραγωγής να ανέρχεται περίπου

σε €200 εκατοµµύρια, αναµένεται συνολική µείωση €56 εκατ. στην προστιθέµενη

αξία της φυτικής παραγωγής κατά τη διάρκεια της επταετούς προγραµµατικής

περιόδου. Η χρησιµότητα αυτής της εκτίµησης είναι ενδεικτική αλλά και προφανής,

αφού υποστηρίζει το γεγονός ότι οι αποδόσεις της κυπριακής γεωργίας πλήττονται

µόνιµα και σοβαρά από τις κακές καιρικές συνθήκες.

Για σκοπούς ενίσχυσης των εκτιµήσεων από το κλιµατολογικό µοντέλο

κρίθηκε σκόπιµο να διερευνηθεί η µέγιστη προθυµία πληρωµής (willingness to pay)

των κατοίκων και κυρίως των αγροτών της περιοχής, για την αποφυγή των αρνητικών

εξωτερικών επιδράσεων της κλιµατικής αλλαγής. Ωστόσο, κρίθηκε σκόπιµο να

συµπεριληφθεί στο δείγµα της έρευνας οµάδα ειδικών (αντί για τους ίδιους τους

αγρότες) οι οποίοι θεωρήθηκε ότι έχουν καλύτερη γνώση του φαινοµένου της

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κλιµατικής αλλαγής και εποµένως οι εκτιµήσεις τους θα προσεγγίζουν καλύτερα την

πραγµατικότητα. Η έρευνα βασίστηκε σε πρωτογενή δεδοµένα τα οποία

συγκεντρώθηκαν µε τη χρήση ερωτηµατολογίου που συµπληρώθηκε µέσω

ηλεκτρονικού ταχυδροµείου. Το χρονικό διάστηµα διεξαγωγής της έρευνας ήταν από

τον Μάιο έως το Ιούνιο του 2011, ενώ συµµετείχε σε αυτήν οµάδα εστίασης 19

ειδικών από την Κύπρο. Προκειµένου τα αποτελέσµατα που θα προκύψουν από την

έρευνα να τύχουν κατά το δυνατόν γενίκευσης για το σύνολο του πληθυσµού της

περιοχής έρευνας ως δυνητικοί αποδέκτες των επιπτώσεων της κλιµατικής αλλαγής

αντιµετωπίστηκαν όλοι οι κάτοικοι της περιοχής έρευνας οι οποίοι και θεωρήθηκαν

κατάλληλα άτοµα για να συµµετάσχουν στην έρευνα και εποµένως οι γενίκευση των

αποτελεσµάτων έγινε στο σύνολο των κατοίκων της Κύπρου.

Όπως προκύπτει από την ανάλυση των ερωτηµατολογίων (Παράρτηµα 3) το

τελικό άθροισµα των επιπτώσεων αντιπροσωπεύει το συνολικό κόστος της

κλιµατικής αλλαγής και ανέρχεται ετήσια σε €71.84 εκατοµµύρια για το γεωργικό

πληθυσµό και €240.73 εκατοµµύρια για το συνολικό πληθυσµό. Συνεπώς το

αναµενόµενο κόστος της κλιµατικής αλλαγής στη γεωργία στην επταετή

προγραµµατική περίοδο 2014-2020 θα ανέλθει από €503.0 έως €1685 εκατοµµύρια.

Αξίζει να σηµειωθεί ότι ως σηµαντικότερη επίπτωση αναφέρεται η αύξηση της

ποσότητας του CO2 στην ατµόσφαιρα και η επιβάρυνση της βιοποικιλότητας και των

οικοσυστηµάτων, ενώ ως λιγότερο σηµαντικές επιπτώσεις αναφέρονται η

αυξοµείωση της παραγωγικότητας και η διαφοροποίηση της γεωργικής παραγωγής

και του εµπορίου των αγροτικών προϊόντων.

Με βάση τους υπολογισµούς που έγιναν στα πλαίσια της παρούσας εργασίας

προκύπτει ότι το συνολικό κόστος των επιπτώσεων από την κλιµατική αλλαγή στην

κυπριακή γεωργία την επταετία 2014-2020 θα ανέλθει µε βάση το κλιµατολογικό

µοντέλο από €574 έως €602 εκατοµµύρια και µε βάση την προθυµία πληρωµής στα

€503.0 εκατοµµύρια. Γενικά, θα µπορούσε να λεχθεί ότι η διαφορά µεταξύ του

εκτιµώµενου κόστους του µοντέλου (€574-602 εκ) και της προθυµίας πληρωµής

(€503.0 -1685 εκ.) από τη µια και του κόστους της στατιστικής ανάλυσης (€56 εκ.)

από την άλλη, οφείλεται στο γεγονός ότι τόσο το κλιµατολογικό µοντέλο όσο και η

προθυµία πληρωµής εκτιµούν εκτός από το κόστος από δυσµενείς κλιµατικές

συνθήκες το επιπλέον κόστος λόγω της ανάγκης για µείωση στο αρδευόµενο νερό για

λόγους αειφόρου διαχείρισης των υδάτινων πόρων. Θα µπορούσε κανείς να πει ότι

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αυτό είναι το κόστος προσαρµογής στην κλιµατική αλλαγή, αλλά και γενικότερα

κόστος προσαρµογής για να αποφευχθεί ακόµα µεγαλύτερο µελλοντικό κόστος λόγω

κακοδιαχείρισης των υδάτινων πόρων.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The principal aim of the current study is to measure in a scientific manner the

cost of climate change on Cypriot agriculture. In order to achieve this target three

different approaches have been employed. The first utilizes a variability climate

model adapted to the local conditions and the second employees the Contingent

Valuation Method. A third approach, and purely for reasons to support the argument

that Cyprus suffers from climate change is an analysis of available statistics on the

performance of the agricultural sector in recent years.

Crop production in Cyprus is constrained by a highly variable climate, limited

precipitation and high temperatures. In addition, global climate change and water

management policies that support the sustainable use of water resources are also

reducing irrigation water supply. The main aims of the climatic model (Appendix 2)

were (i) to assess trends in climate parameters during the past 30 years; (ii) to assess

the effect of climate variability on changes in agricultural land use, production and

irrigation water demand; and (iii) to assess the effect of possible climate change

scenarios and reduced irrigation water supply on crop production for the last seven

seasons of this decade (2013/14-2019/20).

A daily soil water balance model, based on the FAO dual crop coefficient

approach, referred to as the Green-Blue Water Model, was developed to compute the

crop soil water use, originating from precipitation (green water) and from irrigation

(blue water). Crop area and production data for 30 seasons (1979/80-2008/09), 87

different crops and 431 communities were obtained from the Agricultural Statistics

and Censuses. Crop areas registered by the Cyprus Agricultural Payment Organisation

(CAPO) in 2010 were used to simulate future scenarios. Daily climate data from 34

stations and precipitation data from 70 gauges were used for the water balance

computations.

10

The monthly averages of the daily minimum temperatures were found to have

statistically significant upward trends, at the 5% significance level, for the summer

months at all four stations that were analyzed for trends (Larnaca, Kornos, Platania

and Prodromos). The monthly averages of the daily maximum temperatures were also

found to have statistically significant positive trends at Prodromos in the Troodos

mountains (five months), Kornos in the eastern foot hills of the mountains (seven

months), and Larnaca at the coast (nine months). Precipitation was highly variable

and the only statistically significant trend was a downward trend for March at Kornos.

The total harvested area of temporary (annual) crops peaked at 101.9*103 ha in

2005, after a sequence of three wet seasons, and dwindled to 70.9*103 ha during the

2008 drought year. The harvested permanent crop area decreased by nearly 40%, from

62.2*103 ha in 1980 to 38.4*103 ha in 2009. The main loss was for the vine growing

area, which decreased from 34.3 to 8.3*103 ha, and for the areas planted with nut

trees, which shrank from 13.3 to 5.3*103 ha, while the olive area increased from 5.7 to

12.0*103 ha.

The 1980/81-2008/09 seasons were divided in seven dry years, fifteen average

and seven wet years, based on their aridity ratio (precipitation over reference

evapotranspiration). Average annual crop production was 8% lower during the dry

years and 5% higher during the wet years, relative to the production during the fifteen

average years. Model computations indicated that total blue water use averaged

190*106 m3/yr during the 1980/81-2008/09 seasons and was only 2% higher during

the dry years and 2% lower during the wet years. Blue water was computed to have

peaked at 219*106 m3 in 1989/90, while it fell to a record low (150*106 m3) during the

2007/08 drought year. Total green water use ranged between 135*106 m3 in 2007/08

and 368*106 m3 in 2003/04.

The irrigated areas occupied 23% of the cropland, but were responsible for

65% of the total national crop production, while consuming 48% of the blue and green

water used by crops. The rain-fed areas produced on average 273*103 ton/yr, fueled

by 277*106 m3/yr green water. This water may otherwise have returned back to the

atmosphere without much local benefit.

Climate change projections for Cyprus from an ensemble of six Regional

Climate Models, under the medium A1B emission scenario of the UN

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-SRES), indicated an increase in

11

temperatures and highly variable but slightly lower precipitation amounts for the

2013/14-2019/20 seasons. Two climate scenarios were simulated: (1) a worst case

scenario, represented by the seven dry years from the 1980/81-2008/09 record; and (2)

a medium scenario made up of three dry years, two average years and two wet years,

each with the highest evapotranspiration rates within their class. For both scenarios,

irrigation water demand was reduced to 129*106 m3/yr, as recommended by recent

national water management policies, which was achieved by cutting all irrigated crop

areas of the 2010 CAPO crop areas by 25%. The computed annual national crop

production for 2013/14-2019/2020 was reduced by 41%, on average, under scenario 1

and by 43% under scenario 2, relative to 1980/81-2008/09. These results indicate that

within the near future water management policies could be critical for agriculture. Of

course, irrigation water supply is likely to be reduced even further by climate change.

The modeling analysis also showed high variability in water use for the different

crops, communities and years, indicating that there are various options for climate

change adaptation.

Analysis of two possible climate change scenarios represented by more dry years,

higher evaporative demand, and less irrigation water supply, which resulted in a

reduction of the 2010 irrigated area by 25%, projected a possible reduction of 41 to

43% in total national crop production for 2013/14-2019/2020, relative to 1980/81-

2008/09. Taking into consideration that the value added of crop production is close to

€200 million on average the loss of crop production in the period 2014-2020 will

reach €574 to €602 million.

Regarding the cost of climatic change on Cypriot agriculture and according to the

available statistical data it is estimated that on average the value added of crop

production is reduced by 4% during the “bad” years. As “bad” year is considered a

year during which the annual precipitation is below, or far below the average. Given

the climate data recorded in the previous three decades it is expected that during the

seven year programming period 2014-2020 four years will be “bad years” with a

precipitation below the average. With a value added of crop production approximately

€200 million it is expected a total reduction €56 million in the value added of crop

production during the seven year programming period. The utility of this estimation is

obvious since it supports the fact that the performance of the Cypriot agriculture is

permanently and severely affected by bad weather conditions.

12

In order to enforce and support the assessments of climate model it was decided to

explore the maximum willingness to pay of residents and especially local farmers, to

avoid the negative impacts of climate change. However, it was appropriate to include

in the survey a sample group of experts (rather than the farmers themselves) who were

considered to have better knowledge of climate change and therefore the estimates

will approach better the reality. The survey was based on primary data collected using

a questionnaire completed by email. The period of the survey was from May to June

2011, while participating in this focus group 19 experts from Cyprus. In order the

survey results to qualify for generalization to the entire population of the area

investigated, as potential recipients of the impacts of climate change were faced all

local residents of the research area that were considered appropriate people to

participate in the research and therefore the generalization was performed on all

residents of Cyprus.

It results from the analysis of CVM questionnaires (Appendix 3) that the final cost

of the impact represents the total cost of climate change and reaches to an annual

amount of € 71.84 million for the agricultural community and € 240.73 million for the

total population.Therefore, it is expected that in the seven-year programming period

2014-2020 the total cost of climate change on agriculture will reach from €503.0 to

€1685 million. It is worth noting that the most significant impact refers to the

increasing level of CO2 in the atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and

ecosystems, while the less significant impacts refer to the variability in productivity

and diversification of agricultural production and trade of agricultural products.

Based on calculations made in the present work it results that the total cost of

climate change in the Cypriot agriculture during the seven year period 2014-2020 will

reach according to the climate model from €574 to €602 million, and based on the

willingness to pay to € 503.0 -1685 million.

Generally, it could be said that the difference between the estimated cost of the

model (€574-602 million) and the willingness to pay (€503.0-1685 million) to the one

hand and the cost of statistical analysis (€56 million) to the other results from the fact

that both the climate model and the willingness to pay estimate apart from the cost of

bad weather the extra costs due to the need for a reduction in irrigation water for a

sustainable management of water resources. One could say that this is the cost of

13

adapting to climate change, but generally adjustment costs to avoid even higher future

costs due to mismanagement of water resources.

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS

1. Analysis of the daily climate and precipitation data for the past 30 seasons

confirmed the highly variable nature of the climate in Cyprus, both in space

and in time. During the past 30 crop seasons in Cyprus a 39% reduction in the

harvested areas of vines and fruit trees has been recorded.

2. Crop production is becoming a risky business in Cyprus because agriculture is

constraint by a highly variable climate, limited precipitation and high

temperatures. The situation is expected to worsen by climate change imposing

threats on food security and country’s self- sufficiency in basic agricultural

products.

3. The irrigated area covers 23% of the land, uses 48% of the total green and blue

water and produces 65% of the total annual crop production. Irrigation

therefore, has an important effect on reducing the variability in total annual

production.

4. There is high variability in water use for the different crops, communities and

years, indicating that there are various options for climate change adaptation.

For instance, rain-fed crops are very effective users of water. Therefore, under

future climate change, it may be wise to allocate some irrigation water to rain-

fed crops in the drier parts of the island, to ensure their yields during drought

periods.

5. The available statistical data verifies and supports that crop production is

severely affected by adverse weather conditions and low precipitation. A total

reduction of €56 million in the value added of crop production during the

seven year programming period should be expected.

6. Under two possible climate change scenarios, represented by more dry years,

higher evaporative demand, and less irrigation water supply, a possible

reduction of 41 to 43% in total national crop production for 2013/14-

2019/2020, relative to 1980/81-2008/09 should be expected.

14

7. The financial support claimed by the EU in the frame of the Mid-Term

Programming should take into consideration both the adaptation cost as well

as the estimated loss in the value of crop production. The total cost of climate

change in the Cypriot agriculture during the seven year period 2014-2020 will

reach according to the climate model from €574 to €602 million, and based on

the willingness to pay to €503.0 to €1685 million..

8. Adaptation to climate change should take into consideration the water use

efficiency of different crops. In this respect, crops with higher water efficiency

and higher water productivity (e.g. rainfed crops, aromatic plants, greenhouse

and floriculture crops, etc.) should be promoted through the various rural

development interventions.

9. Agricultural research should continuously be focused on climate change in

order to be ready to propose alternative crops, methods or adaptation practices.

10. Government services should be properly prepared to face extreme weather

conditions, such as prolonged droughts, frequent fire incidents, soil erosion,

water and soil salinity, etc. Possible additional infrastructure or equipment

should be needed to this direction.

15

Chapter 1

Introduction

1.1 Literature Review

The literature review in this section takes into consideration studies related to the

direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agricultural activities. More

specifically, it refers to the combined impacts of temperature increase and reduced

precipitation on crops in terms of increased water requirements, increased

evapotranspiration, heat stress, intensification of pests, diseases and herbs and soil

degradation (salinity, erosion, fertility), as well as other direct and indirect impacts.

The literature review is limited to the Eastern Mediterranean region and especially to

Cyprus.

The “Commission Staff Working Paper “Adapting to climate change: the

challenge for European agriculture and rural areas, accompanying document to the

White Paper on Climate change” (2009), summarizes the potential climate change

effects for the Southern and southeastern areas (Portugal, Spain, south of France,

Italy, Slovenia, Greece, Malta, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and southern Romania) as follows:

“These regions will experience the combined effect of large temperature increases and

reduced precipitation in areas already having to cope with water scarcity and where

there is a heavy dependency on irrigation. In the Iberian Peninsula’s annual rainfall

may drop by up to 40 % compared to current levels by the end of the century. If no

effective adaptation takes place, yield decreases could range from 10 % to 30 % (in

the long term) possibly creating domestic food supply risks. By 2050, there may be

shifts in the suitability of crops (e.g. spring crops) from southern areas to higher

latitudes as climate further changes. Adaptation measures, such as more balanced crop

rotations by introduction of less water demanding crops, or maintaining levels of soil

organic matter, will be necessary to avoid the most dramatic effects (such as the

extension and exacerbation of desertification)”.

The study “Climate Change and the European Water Dimension” (2005)

conducted by the Joint Research Centre estimates that the average increase in the

observed annual mean temperature across the European continent is 0.80C, while the

temperatures during the winter season have in general increased more than during the

summer. The report also foresees an annual temperature increase at a rate of between

16

0.2 and 0.6°C per decade over the Mediterranean arc with an increase in the frequency

of hot summers and a decrease in the cold winters. The study estimates that the

Mediterranean basin has experienced up to 20% reduction in annual precipitation in

the last century, while the projections for the 21st century show further decreases in

precipitation over Southern Europe, about 1%. Apart from the Balkans and Turkey,

Southern Europe can expect more precipitation in the winter while in the summer

precipitation is projected to decrease by up to 5% per decade. It is also very likely that

frequencies and intensities of summer heat waves will increase throughout Southern

Europe and that intense precipitation events will increase in frequency, especially in

winter, and that summer drought risk will increase in southern Europe; it is also

possible that gale frequencies will increase. Regarding the adaptation to climate

change the study proposes management practices, such as conservation tillage, drip

and trickle irrigation, and irrigation scheduling as short-term possibilities for

preserving soil moisture. Improving irrigation efficiency by reducing water losses

from storage and distribution systems, proper maintenance of irrigation systems,

optimizing irrigation scheduling, and using water conservative techniques, such as

drip irrigation can combat increased water requirements. Long-term changes include

the change of land use to adapt to the new climate in order to stabilize production and

to avoid strong inter-annual variability in yields. This could be achieved through the

substitution of existing crops with crops with a lower productivity but more stable

yields (e.g. wheat replaced by pasture). For areas with increased water stress, it has

further been recommended to use less water consuming and more heat resistant crops.

Other measures include the change in farming systems since many farms are

specialized in arable farming and, therefore, are tightly linked to local soil and climate

conditions.

In his study “Climate Change and Energy in the Mediterranean” Henri-Luc

THIBAULT (2008) describes the Mediterranean as “a hot spot of climate change”. He

concludes that the Mediterranean, and more especially the Southern and Eastern rim,

are and will be more affected by climate change than most other regions of the world

in the course of the 21st century. The impacts of the rise in temperatures, the decrease

in rainfall, the multiplication of the number and intensity of extreme events and the

possible rise in sea level overlap and amplify the already existing pressures of

anthropogenic origin on the natural environment. As a result of the accumulated

17

impacts related to temperature, rainfall, the state of the soil and the behavior of animal

and plant species he proposes that agriculture and fishing yields are expected to drop.

Although the adoption of specific crop management options (e.g. changes in sowing

dates or cultivars) may help in reducing the negative responses of agricultural crops to

climate change he estimates that such options could require up to 40% more water for

irrigation. Henri-Luc proposes that there is high confidence that neither adaptation nor

mitigation alone can avoid all climate change impacts. However, the two approaches

can complement each other and thus significantly reduce the risks. Adaptation is

necessary in the short- and longer-term to address impacts resulting from

Mediterranean climate change and that would occur even for the lowest stabilization

scenario assessed and agreed upon. Unmitigated climate change would, in the long

term, be likely to exceed the capacity of natural, managed and human systems to

adapt. Many impacts can be reduced, delayed or avoided through mitigation. In the

medium term he proposes as one option for the adaptation of the agricultural sector,

water desalination techniques; a development that involves not only a significant fixed

cost during the construction of the plants, but also a variable cost, which is not

negligible, due to intensive energy use. This solution must then be coupled with

investments in energy production, with a total cost at 1.5 US dollars/m3/day. A second

option requires the construction of barrages for water collection, and thus supplying

the crops throughout the year, even when rainfall becomes less frequent and in

drought period. However, in the Mediterranean, potential sites are very few and one

of the disadvantages of temperature rises is increased evaporation. In the very short

term, priority should be granted to an optimal management of water resources and

demand. He also suggests the re-use of wastewater, an option with very high fixed

costs. On global level, these costs are estimated in the range of 3600 to 5700 US

dollars on average, per hectare, in Sub-Saharan Africa, and vary according to the

regions.

In their study “Precipitation and temperature regime over Cyprus as a result of

global climate change” Giannakopoulos, P. Hadjinicolaou, E. Kostopoulou, K.V.

Varotsos, and C. Zerefos (2010), summarize the findings of various studies regarding

climate change and assess the impacts of high temperatures, low rainfall, frequency

and intensity of extreme events’ occurrence (such as heat waves and droughts). They

18

conclude that the impacts “may critically affect the society and economy of small

island countries, like Cyprus”.

In another study titled: “Climate Change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting

from a 20C global temperature rise” C. Giannakopoulos, M. Bindi, M. Moriondo, P.

LeSager and T. Tin (2005) explore the present trends of the Mediterranean climate in

terms of temperature and precipitation. Their most important finding is that

“instrumental data reveal significant trends of Mediterranean temperature and

precipitation at different time and space scales. During the last 50 years of the 20th

century large parts of the Mediterranean experienced winter and summer warming.

For the same period, precipitation over the Mediterranean decreased”.

According to the study “EU agriculture – taking on the climate change challenge”,

conducted by the General Directorate for Agriculture and Rural Development of the

European Commission (2008): “climate change is now recognized as one of the most

serious environmental, societal and economic challenges facing the world. There is

clear scientific evidence that high concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the

atmosphere, due to human activities, are intensifying the natural “greenhouse effect”

thus increasing the Earth’s temperature. Concentrations of GHGs, mainly carbon

dioxide (CO2), have increased by 70 % since 1970”. The study estimates that Europe

has warmed by almost 1 °C in the past century, faster than the global average. Most of

the warming has occurred in the last 50 years a trend that has already had a significant

influence on many physical and biological systems (water, habitats, health), which are

becoming more fragile. Climate conditions are more variable. Rainfall and snowfall

have significantly increased in northern Europe, with floods becoming more common,

while in southern Europe rainfall has fallen considerably and there are more frequent

droughts. Temperatures have become more extreme. Economic losses due to extreme

weather events have increased greatly in recent decades. Since most of the impacts of

climate change on agriculture come through water, its shortages will have a major

impact on agricultural production and European landscapes. Additionally, as many

areas, notably in southern EU countries, have practiced irrigation for hundreds of

years as part of their farming tradition, they will need to review irrigation techniques.

Therefore, agriculture must also improve its water use efficiency and reduce water

losses. The likely rise in the distribution and intensity of existing pests, diseases, and

weeds, due to higher temperatures and humidity will affect the level and variability of

19

crop yields and, in the long term, cultivation of several agricultural crops could shift

to more northern latitudes. The study estimates that Southern Europe and the

Mediterranean basin will experience the combined effect of large temperature

increases and reduced precipitation, while climate change will increase regional

differences in Europe’s natural resources. Already numerous effects of climate

change, like advances in tree flowering periods, lengthening of the vine growing

season, and changes in other natural plant cycles, are observed. Finally, the study

projects that climate change can have an impact on food prices and price stability –

one of the reasons for recent cereal price increases is the reduction in the EU harvest

due, in part, to exceptional bad weather conditions across Europe.

A country overview and assessment for “The economics of climate change

adaptation in EU coastal areas”, conducted by the Directorate – General for Maritime

Affairs and Fisheries, Policy Research Corporation, in association with MRAG (2009)

examines the flooding and erosion, freshwater shortage, the measures taken to

counteract the problem of water stress and the past, present and future adaptation

expenditure due to climate change. According to the study the coastal zones of Cyprus

are a valuable and vulnerable area, in which most urban development and economic

activity takes place, cover 23% of the total country’s area, 50% of total population

and 90% of the tourism industry. The most vulnerable part in this regard is the low-

lying region of Larnaca located on the south coast of the island. Erosion constitutes a

greater threat than flooding especially for the sandy and gravel beaches of the island.

At the moment, 38% of the coastline is already subject to erosion, mostly the result of

human activities such as beach mining, dam and illegal breakwater construction and

urbanization. Climate change could worsen this situation. In 2008 the main issue

Cyprus had to deal with is freshwater shortage forcing the country to import water

from Greece. The whole of Cyprus suffered from droughts and desertification has

started already in certain areas. Rainfall in Cyprus has dropped by about 20% over the

past 35 years and the water runoff into reservoirs has declined by 40%. The amount

spent to protect the coastal zones of Cyprus against flooding and erosion in 2008

amounted € 0.8 million. Over the entire period considered (1998-2015) about € 15.4

million will be spent to protect Cyprus against flooding and erosion, not taking into

account climate change. The total cost for the Cyprus government to purchase

desalinated water from private companies almost tripled in the last decade, from about

20

€ 10 million in 1998 to more than € 27 million in 2006. The improvement of village

supply distribution networks is estimated at € 7.5 million per year, up to 2008. The

transportation of water from Greece by tanks cost the country more than € 55 million

over the period 2008-2009. At the end of October 2008, the European Commission

proposed to financially support Cyprus with a single payment of € 7.6 million from

the European Solidarity Fund to help the island meet the costs of drought related

emergency measures. The study concludes that it is difficult to indicate which

freshwater supply expenditures are solely made to adapt to climate change and which

ones are related to an overuse of the available resources, as Cyprus does not take

climate change explicitly into account when defining actions to overcome the problem

of freshwater shortage.

In his study “Climate change as a driver for European agriculture” Jørgen E.

Olesen (2008) suggests that the consistent increases in projected temperature and

different patterns of precipitation with widespread increases in northern Europe and

rather small decreases over southern Europe are expected to greatly affect all

components of the European agricultural ecosystems (e.g. crop suitability, yield and

production, livestock, etc.). He estimates that in southern areas of the EU the

disadvantages will predominate while the possible increase in water shortage and

extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability

and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the

current trends of intensification of agriculture in Northern and Western Europe and

extensification in the Mediterranean and Southeastern parts of Europe. As agriculture

in the Mediterranean region seems to be more vulnerable than in other European

regions a considerable effort in research and development to deal with the changes is

needed. Jørgen proposes that the projected increase in greenhouse gases will affect

agro ecosystems either directly (primarily by increasing photosynthesis at higher

CO2), or indirectly via effects on climate (e.g. temperature and rainfall affecting

several aspects of ecosystem functioning.

In the study “impacts of Europe’s changing climate, an Indicator-based

assessment” conducted by the European Environment Agency (2004) refers to Global,

Mediterranean and Cypriot climate tendencies due to climate change. According to

the study during the last century the climate changed, with precipitation reducing at a

rate of 1mm per year, where the temperature increased by 0,5°C. The reduction in

21

precipitation and the increase of temperature had an adverse impact on the availability

of the natural water resources, which were reduced by 40% from the estimates made

in 1970 at the preparation of the Cyprus Water Master Plan. Extreme climatic

phenomena especially droughts are more frequent than before, with droughts causing

water shortage and scarcity, and adverse effects on the economy, on the social life and

on the environment. Cyprus has developed and implemented a National Water Master

Plan, which was prepared in the 1970’s, based on the meteorological data available at

the time covering the period 1900-1970. The water crisis caused by the climate

change forced the Government to revise the original policy on water resources

management plans, which envisaged among others the introduction of seawater

desalination by the years 2005-2010. The revised water policy provided for: (a) the

introduction of seawater desalination early in the 1997’s, (b) the acceleration of the

construction of the domestic effluent reuse projects, (c) the intensification of the

implementation of water demand measures, (d) the re-evaluation of the water demand

and of the available natural water resources, and (e) other measures to mitigate the

adverse effects resulting from water scarcity. While the Global climate shows

tendencies for change, the same would be expected to occur in the Mediterranean

region. Precipitation in the regions surrounding the Mediterranean Sea has decreased

during the last century up to 17%, with the exception in the region, which extends

from Tunisia to Libya where a small increase has been recorded. Generally there is a

tendency for the reduction of precipitation in the southern Europe where in the

majority of the regions in the north an increase is recorded. Finally, during the 20th

century, the climate of Cyprus and specifically the two basic parameters, precipitation

and temperature presented great variability and trends.

In their study “the Climate Change and Agriculture – Dimensions and

correlations”, Mirela Matei, Adrian Stancu and Predrag Vukovic (2010) connect

agriculture with climate change. They estimate that at international level, over 80%

agricultural land is rainfed. The irrigated land represents at international level, around

18% of agricultural land, and it produces 1 billion tons of grain annually that means

half the world’s total supply; (this situation is due to high yield of irrigated crops that

is 2–3 times more than rain-fed lands). They conclude that the climate change affects

agriculture, and agriculture affects climate change. Taking in consideration the IPCC

definition, at international level, emissions of GHG from agriculture represent 10–

22

12% of total emissions. The European Commission estimates the share of agriculture

in GHGs emission, around 9%. They asses that agriculture can have an important role

in combating the climate change through bio energy – energy from biomass. Biomass

is the world's fourth largest energy source and it provides 10% of the energy used at

international level. So, the use of bio energy can have major economic and political

consequences. Cultivation, harvesting and collection of biomass and the use for heat;

electricity and transport have consequences like soil erosion, emission of green house

gas, and threats to biodiversity and water resources. So, bio energy can have negative

impact on environment and the main goal – reducing greenhouse gas emissions could

not be achieved.

The study “Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change; A review of the

UNFCCC and other recent estimates” prepared by M. Parry, N. Arnell, P. Berry, D.

Dodman, S. Fankhauser, C. Hope, S. Kovats, R. Nicholls, D. Satterthwaite, R. Tiffin,

T. Wheeler (2009) estimates that the total funding for adaptation by 2030 reaches $49

– $171 billion per annum globally, of which $27 – $66 billion would accrue in

developing countries.

1.2 Introduction

Cyprus is a small island in the Eastern Mediterranean with an area of 9.251 square

kilometres extending 240 kms from east to west and 100 kms from north to south. It is

strategically situated in the far eastern end of the Mediterranean (33o E, 35o N), at the

crossroads of Europe, Africa and Asia, and in close proximity to the busy trade routes

linking Europe with the Middle East, Central Asia and Far East. Cyprus has a

population of about 800.000 and became member of the European Union (EU) in May

2004.

Cyprus has enjoyed sustained economic growth in the last three decades

(averaging 5.8% and 3.1% per year over the last 30 and 10 years respectively) mainly

due to tourist income and the development of financial services. Its per capita Gross

Domestic Product exceeded 20 000 Euros in 2009.

Concerning the flora and fauna, 17% of the island is woodland. The natural

vegetation includes forests of evergreen and deciduous trees, shrubs and flowers. The

flora comprises about 1.800 species, sub-species and varieties. About 140 (7%) of

these are endemic to Cyprus. There are also 365 species of birds but only 115 of them

23

breed on the island. Two species and five sub-species have been classified as

indigenous to the area. Among the animals the moufflon is the most noteworthy. It

belongs to the sheep family and is unique in the world.

The climate of Cyprus is Mediterranean, with mild, wet winters (mean daily

minimum 5oC), and hot, dry summers (mean daily maximum 36oC). There are two

main massifs; Troodos massif (southwest) and Pentadaktylos or Kyrenia massif

(north). In the central island is located Mesaoria plain, where most of cereals and

seasonal crops are cultivated and livestock animals are raised.

Like other Mediterranean countries, Cyprus has a semi-arid climate associated

with limited water resources. The principal cause of water scarcity is the combination

of limited availability and excess demand of water among competing uses; this is

clearly illustrated by the fact that Cyprus has the highest Water Exploitation Index

(45%) in the EU (EEA, 2009) – which becomes much higher in years of excessive

drought. Historically droughts occur every two to three consecutive years as a result

of large inter-annual decreases in precipitation. In the last four decades however,

drought incidences have increased both in magnitude and frequency.

Water management has been problematic since the 1960s due to the limited

development of water infrastructure for domestic and irrigation supply. The national

government’s top priorities were to ensure food security and constant supply of good

quality water so that the adverse effects of water scarcity do not impede

socioeconomic development, given that agriculture was the backbone of the economy,

contributing by about 20% to the country’s GDP. Αs Cyprus gradually became

service-dominated, the contribution of agriculture has decreased dramatically, and

currently accounts for about 2% of GDP and 7% of the total workforce. Despite such

decreases, agriculture still remains the dominant water user in the country, accounting

for 69% of total water use, while the domestic sector accounts for 25% – of which one

fifth goes to tourism. In order to store as much freshwater as possible, Cypriot

governments have constructed numerous dams on key catchments in the course of the

years. As a result, the water storage capacity of the island increased from 6 million

cubic meters (c.m.) in 1960 to 327 million c.m. in 2009, making Cyprus one of the

most developed countries in terms of dam infrastructure (Th. Zachariadis, 2010).

In terms of its size the agricultural sector had a Gross Output € 682,1 mn in 2008,

contributing 2% to the Gross Domestic Product. The employment in the sector was

24

6,3% of the total economically active population and the value of exports was €116,6

(21,3% of total domestic exports). In real values, however, gross output decreased by

10,5% in 2008 continuing the decrease of 1,0% which occurred in 2007. In real terms,

crop production decreased by 26,5%, forestry production by 8,6% and the hunting

sub-sector by 12,8%, while livestock production and ancillary production recorded an

increase of 0,8% and 6,9% respectively. The sector’s value added at current market

prices reached €349,3 mn. while, in real terms, value added decreased by 42,8% in

2008, compared to the decrease of 9,5% in 2007. As regards the value added of crop

production it fluctuates close to €200 per year. A general review of the agricultural

sector in 2008 is provided in Appendix 1.

The relationship between climate and agriculture is not one way. Agriculture has

the potential to influence and shape the climate at local, regional and global scale. In

particular, irrigation, natural growth of cultivated species and plant cover rate,

determine the levels of available soil moisture and indirect the transfer of heat,

moisture and momentum rising from the ground into the atmosphere. Therefore,

agriculture affects the existence, the location and the intensity of heat transfer and

water vapor, and participates in setting the global climate. Besides, agriculture in the

broadest sense (including livestock production), is an activity which emits some of the

greenhouse gases, contributing this way to the acceleration of climate change.

Climate change is the indirect result of a combination of a large number of human

activities and natural changes. Human activities contributing to the phenomenon of

climate change are those that emit well-known "greenhouse gases": Carbon dioxide

(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrogen dioxide (N2O), Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),

Perfluorocarbons, (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). These gases, straight in large

quantities in the atmosphere preventing the elimination of thermal radiation into

space. Given that the climate system is determined mainly by the balance of radiation

on Earth, it is obvious that the change in the determinants of this balance leads to the

emergence of climate change.

Climate change occurs by the increase of air temperature, by the change in the

amount, frequency and distribution of precipitation and by extreme weather events

with greater frequency and severity. Since agriculture is an outdoor organic plant

food, based on the phenomenon of photosynthesis, which’s the performance optimizes

with the appropriate combination of sunshine, air temperature and humidity and water

25

availability in the root zone of crops and vegetation in general, it is estimated that the

effects of climate change will affect agriculture drastically.

Climate change is a highly dynamic and complex phenomenon of multiple

interactions between biotic and abiotic components of the planet, with consequences

that do not receive universal acceptance and satisfactory documentation. This fact

significantly complicates the design and implementation of measures to address those

impacts. Under an oversight there are two categories of measures for addressing the

impacts of the climate change: (a) Measures to mitigate the causes of climate change,

in order to prevent the acceleration of the phenomenon and its putative effects

(mitigation measures) and, (b) adaptation measures of the anthropogenic activities to

respond effectively to the expected impacts or even to the impacts, already attributed

to global warming (adaptation measures).

Climate change is a challenge but also a threat to sustainable agricultural

development at the local and global level. Although agriculture in the broadest sense,

is a complex and well developed sector, it is expected to be directly affected by

climate change, because temperature, sunlight and water are the main factors of crops

growth. It is estimated that the effects of climate change will make agriculture

activities from high uncertainty in high risk activities.

Due to severe droughts occurred in Cyprus in the years 1990/1991 and

1996/2001 the whole of the island was under stress with obvious threats on the

ecosystem. The reduced Rainfall deprived the satisfactory irrigation of forests, and of

rain fed agriculture; surface runoff was reduced with reduced inflows to dams and

wetlands; Wetlands did not collect enough water with adverse effects on their

biodiversity; Recharge of the aquifers was less than normal and aquifers were over

pumped to satisfy normal demand resulting to groundwater mining; Domestic water

supply was reduced endangering quality of life and sanitation of the citizens; Water

for irrigation was reduced with social, economic, and environmental adverse effects;

Dry lands posed a thread for fires and uncontrolled fires destroyed great areas

resulting to environmental disasters (N. X. Tsiourtis, 2002).

Climate is one of the most important factors determining the productivity of

farming systems. The foundation of the quantity and quality of agricultural production

is the optimal degree of harmonization between the traits of crop species, the

cultivation practices and the local climate and environment. It is apparent that, every

26

aspect of agricultural activity is affected by the climate and it is also required the

continuous adaptation of agriculture to a wide range of factors. Therefore, to allow the

maintenance of satisfactory standards of production in the future interventions to

promote, inter alia, the adaptation of agriculture to the parameters that characterize

directly or indirectly the climate change, like global warming, the increase of the

concentration of CO2, drought, flooding, salinization of soils, etc, should be targeted.

The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to estimate economic values

for all kinds of ecosystem and environmental services. The method allows better

valuation of non-market goods and services than any other non-market valuation

technique. It can be used to estimate both use and non-use values, and it is the most

widely used method for estimating non-use values. The CVM involves directly

asking people, in a survey, how much they would be willing to pay, or the amount of

compensation they would be willing to accept to give up, for specific environmental

services. The CVM is referred to as a “stated preference” method because it asks

people to directly state their values, rather than inferring values from actual choices,

as the “revealed preference” methods do. The fact that CV is based on what people

say they would do, as opposed to what people are observed to do, is the source of its

greatest strengths and its greatest weaknesses. However, CV is one of the only ways

to assign price values to non-use values of the environment—values that do not

involve market purchases and may not involve direct participation (sometimes

referred to as “passive use” values).

CVM is employed in the present study as a second approach in assessing the

cost of climate change on Cypriot agriculture. Its results (Appendix 3) are presented

along with the findings of the primary approach which is a climatic model (Appendix

2).

1.3 Structure of the study

This report is separated to five chapters. Initially, on the first chapter, an

extended summary of literature review relevant to climate change is presented. On the

second chapter, the expected impact of climate change on agricultural activities, with

emphasis in the Mediterranean region and Cyprus, is analyzed. On the third chapter

the methodology followed in order to achieve acceptable and reasonable estimations

is presented. On the fourth chapter the data used and the estimated results are

27

described and finally, the fifth chapter, concludes presenting the policy implications

of this study findings. A general review of the current status of the Cypriot agriculture

in 2008 is described in Appendix 1. The estimation of climate model “Effect of

climate variability and climate change on crop production and water resources in

Cyprus” is attached in Appendix 2, while the estimation of Contingent Valuation

Method is presented in Appendix 3 and the questionnaire used in Contingent

Valuation Method is included as Appendix 4.

Chapter 2

The expected impact of climate change on agricultural activities

According to the IPCC, the impact of climate change on agricultural

production (crop and livestock) will primarily reflect mainly to the change in crop

yields.

The increase of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere it is generally

positively correlated with the higher yields of cultivated species. However, the degree

of correlation is affected by many factors such as cultivar, the stage of development

and cultivation practices.

The correlation of the increase in temperature with the change in crop yields is

characterized by significant uncertainty. By way of illustration, based on the used

simulation models, in areas with low latitudes (like Cyprus), even a small increase in

temperature may negatively affect crop yields, such as cereals.

Possible reduction in precipitation, especially in areas with already low

rainfall, may lead to a collapse of existing agro-ecosystems and / or to the

development of new, with full sovereignty of crops that are more resistant to arid

conditions.

The increased frequency, severity and duration of expression of extreme

weather phenomena have direct and indirect negative effects, ranging from the

damage to the standing production and the destruction of crops and livestock, to the

destruction of infrastructure created for the purposes of agriculture (e.g. land

reclamation projects, animal facilities) and the total destruction of agro-ecosystems.

28

Increased pest and disease incidents, either in the form of increased population

density, or in the form of new species favored by higher temperatures lead to reduced

production.

The scarcity of water resources as a result of expected changes in hydrological

regime, will determine intense competition in the water use in agriculture, insufficient

irrigation, changes in the evapo-transpiration model, reduction in yields and poor

quality of products, reduction of vegetation, increased erosion, decreased soil fertility,

increased water abstractions and further degradation of groundwater aquifers

The changes in the development conditions and the location of crops due to

the adjustment of the Mediterranean crops in northern areas, will determine the

diversification of agricultural production and agricultural trade at regional level and

climatic zones.

The increase of expenditure to address the cost of irrigation water, of

appropriate propagation material, specific fertilizers and damage from extreme

weather events (destruction of crops in development and productive potential), will

determine loss of income and economic imbalances at the level of agricultural

holdings and rural areas.

The reduction of biodiversity will determine loss in native species that are

historical stock of genetic resources probably exploitable.

The expected impacts of climate change will be the major cause of damages to

agriculture in its progress towards 2020, possibly causing fluctuations in supply,

prices and incomes of producers.

2.1 The impact of temperature increase on agriculture

Beyond a certain threshold the lack of water resources and the extension of the dry

season generate significant costs for the farmers. The setting of this temperature

threshold varies according to the authors. The optimal temperature for the agricultural

sector is 14.2° according to the Ricardian model and 11.7° to the reduced-form model

(with a rainfall of 10.8 cm/mo). Tol (2002b) estimates this threshold as +3° with

respect to the level of 1990 for Africa and +3.08° for the Middle East. If a production

is made vulnerable during a critical period of its cycle, crops may considerably

decrease, while soil quality will be deteriorated and its fertility will be reduced. In

Morocco, the Cropwat model (FAO, 2001) applied to winter cereal crops under 3rd

29

IPCC report scenarios show yield decreases by 2020 in the order of 10% for a normal

year and 50% for a dry one and a 30% drop in national production. In a drier, hotter

climate, crops will require more water (Henri-Luc, 2008).

Increased temperature reduces crop duration. In wheat, for instance an increase by

1 °C during grain fill reduces the length of this phase by 5%, and yield declines by a

similar amount. Maize and soybean yields in the United States between 1982 and

1989 decreased by 17% with each 1 °C increase in growing season mean temperature.

Compared to temperate crops, sensitivity to warming may be even greater in tropical

crops because they operate already close to the optimum. In contrast, temperate crops

are often temperature-limited and a mild warming (<3 °C) may have a net positive

effect, provided that precipitation is sufficient (Jørgen E. Olesen, 2008).

2.2 Changes in the availability of water

According to N. X. Tsiourtis (2002) during the 20th century, the climate of

Cyprus and specifically the two basic parameters, the precipitation and the

temperature presented great variability and trends. Similar variability and trends in the

climate have been observed in other Mediterranean countries, which mean that there

exists a change to the general circulation and behavior of the atmosphere in the

Mediterranean region. From the records in the Government controlled area it is

concluded that the temperature is increasing where the precipitation is decreasing.

More specifically as can be seen from Figure 1, the average precipitation in

Cyprus during the 20th century reduced on the average at a rate of one (1) mm a year.

The rate of reduction of precipitation is greater in the second half of the century in

comparison with the first half of the century. Further, in the recent decades the

number of years with reduced rainfall has increased and the dry conditions are

becoming more serious. In addition, the warmest years of the century have been

recorded during the last twenty years. During the second half of the century the

frequency of reduced rainfall years has increased in comparison to the average

precipitation in the years of the first half of the century.

Figure 1. Average precipitation in Cyprus during the 20th century

30

Source: Nicos X. TSIOURTIS (2002): CYPRUS-Water Resources, Planning and Climate Change Adaptation. Mediterranean Regional Roundtable, Athens, Greece: p.4-21

Similar results are given by comparing average annual precipitation for the

different 30-year periods as shown on Table 1.

Table 1. Average precipitation for 30-year periods during the last Century

Source: Nicos X. TSIOURTIS (2002): CYPRUS-Water Resources, Planning and Climate Change Adaptation. Mediterranean Regional Roundtable, Athens, Greece: p.4-21

From the records it can also be seen that the last decade of the century (1989-

1999), is the period with the lowest precipitation of all the decades of the century,

with an average precipitation of 434 mm per year or 22,36% less than the first 30

year period of the century.

Further to the reduction in the precipitation a variability of the monthly

distribution of precipitation is observed with an increase in the November

precipitation and reduction in the remaining months.

Table 1 (appendix 5), gives data for the Mean Annual Precipitation in mm of

rain for hydro meteorological years 1960-61 up to 2008-09. The data Panel shows

a decrease in precipitation, with the exception for some Hydrometeorological

years (1974-75, 1987 - 88, 1991-92 and 2001-02), with rainfall> 600 mm. It is

important that the rainfall in fifteen out of twenty years (1989-90 to 2008-09) was

below, or far below the average.

31

While the precipitation is reducing at an average rate of one (1) mm per year

the mean average temperature showed an increase by an average of 0,01 °C per

year as it is seen in Figure 2. For the period 1976-1998 it is seen that the rate of

increase of the temperature in towns is 0,035°C per year and in the rural areas it is

0,015°C per year. Although it can be said that the greater part of the increase of

the temperature in the towns is due to the urbanization the fact that there is an

increase of the temperature in the rural areas, this shows that the temperature

increases. Further, the fact that there is an increase in temperature is supported

from the records, which show that globally the warmest years of the century

occurred during the last two decades (N. X. Tsiourtis, 2002).

Figure 2. Mean average air temperature in Cyprus, 1901-1998

Source: Nicos X. TSIOURTIS (2002): CYPRUS-Water Resources, Planning and Climate Change Adaptation. Mediterranean Regional Roundtable, Athens, Greece: p.4-21

Table 2 (appendix 5) presents the annual average air temperature in ° C from 1901 to 2009.

2.3 Soil degradation

According to one definition soil degradation is damage to the land's productive

capacity because of poor agricultural practices such as the excessive use of pesticides

or fertilizers, soil compaction from heavy equipment, or erosion of topsoil, eventually

resulting in reduced ability to produce agricultural products.

32

In a study prepared by T. Srebotnjak, C. Polzin, S. Giljum, S. Herbert, S. Lutter

(2010) it is assessed that “on average, approximately 17.5% of soils in EU are eroding

at a rate exceeding the estimated threshold of 1 t/ha/yr for mineral soils. However, the

geographical distribution and severity of soil threats varies across Europe because

natural factors such as climate, soil type and topography have a critical influence on

the type and impact of soil threats. In comparison to other European regions,

Mediterranean regions are most affected by various soil threats such as soil erosion,

decline in soil organic matter, soil salinisation, landslides and desertification. With the

impacts and evidence of climate change accumulating in recent years, the problem of

soil erosion is likely to increase in the future”.

Land degradation, either a human-induced, or natural process, is negatively

affecting the productivity of land within an ecosystem. The direct causes of land

degradation are geographically specific. Climate change, including changes in short-

term variation, as well as long-term gradual changes in temperature and precipitation,

is expected to be an additional stress on rates of land degradation (UNDP).

Climate change-induced land degradation is expected through:

• changes in the length of days and/or seasons;

• recurrence of droughts, floods, and other extreme climatic events;

• changes in temperature and precipitation which in turn reduces vegetation

cover, water resource availability, and soil quality; and

• changes in land-use practices, such as conversion of lands, pollution, and

depletion of soil nutrients.

Research suggests that climate change-induced land degradation will vary

geographically. The underlying adaptive capacity of both the ecosystem and

communities will determine the extent and direction of impacts. Regions that are

already constrained by issues such as land quality, poverty, technology constraints and

other socio-economic constraints are likely to be more adversely affected. Concern is

particularly focused on regions where increased rates of land degradation due to

climate change are likely to decrease livelihood opportunities and worsen rural

poverty. According to UNDP adaptation-related projects on land degradation should

focus on reducing the impacts of climate change on land degradation, over and

beyond measures that would normally be undertaken as a land degradation focal area

activity. Maintaining and/or strengthening the resilience of ecosystems and

33

communities to climate change by reducing the rates of land degradation (caused by

climate change) is a priority. Projects should reflect dynamic, long-term response

measures that can effectively contribute towards the reduction of climate change-

induced land degradation.

2.4 Intensification of pests, diseases and herbs

According to Jørgen E. Olesen (2008) the majority of the pest and disease

problems are closely linked with their host crops. Under climate change and due to

more favourable conditions many insects can complete a greater number of

reproductive cycles, cause greater and earlier infestation during the following crop

season and lead to earlier insect spring activity and proliferation of some pest species.

A possible similar situation for plant diseases will lead to increased demand for

pesticide control. As far as weeds are concerned, higher CO2 concentration will

stimulate their growth and water use efficiency in both C3 (e.g. wheat, barley,

potatoes and sugar beet) and C4 (e.g. corn and many of summer annual plants)

species. Differential effects of CO2 and climate changes on crops and weeds will alter

the weed-crop competitive interactions, sometimes for the benefit of the crop and

sometimes for the weeds. Changes in climatic suitability will lead to invasion of

weeds, pests and diseases adapted to warmer climatic conditions. The Colorado potato

beetle Leptinotarsa decemlineata, the European corn borer Ostrinia nubilalis, the

Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata and karnal bunt disease of wheat Tilletia

indica, are examples of insect pests and diseases, which are expected to have a

considerable northward expansion in Europe under climatic warming.

Climate change means more extreme weather events, greater stresses on native

species and ecosystems, and climate-driven activities. Climate change will have

diverse and far reaching consequences for the Mediterranean region which is

particularly vulnerable. The economic, social and environmental impacts of climate

change can be positive, negative or neutral, since these changes can decrease, increase

or have no impact on plant diseases, pests or weeds depending on each region or

period of time considered. Plant pathogens and pests are among the first organisms to

show the effects of climate change due to their high populations, ease of propagation

and dispersal and the short time between generations. Besides, they are also

responsible for reduced productivity and sustainability of the agro ecosystem.

34

Climate change will affect plant pests and diseases in the same way it affects

infectious disease agents. In other words, the range of many insects will expand or

change, and new combinations of pests and diseases may emerge as natural

ecosystems respond to altered temperature and precipitation profiles. Any increase in

the frequency or severity of extreme weather events, including droughts, heat waves,

windstorms or floods, could also disrupt the predator-prey (biotrophic) and the

predator-prey-plant (tritrophic) relationships that normally keep pest populations in

control. The effect of climate change on pests may add to the effect of other factors

such as the overuse of pesticides and the loss of biodiversity that already contribute to

plant pest and disease outbreaks.

The degree to which various species of insect pests will be affected by climate

change will be proportional to the degree of the change, and inversely correlated with

the width of environmental requirements of each species. Most insect pests are widely

tolerant and adaptable organisms, and their occurrence in an environment depends

upon the presence of their particular host plants. Therefore, they may be less distinctly

affected by climate change than other species.

It is interesting to note that research studies on insect pests of plants often bring

contrary results: many of them should tend to disperse and their numbers and

importance should increase (Porter et al. 1991; Cannon 1998; Parry 1998; Quarles

2007, etc). Within the Class of insects, plant pests are actually a specific group to a

considerable extent. Harmful insect pests are much more adaptable to changes of

environmental conditions, which make them capable of surviving in extreme

conditions of agricultural ecosystems, dispersing over landscapes altered by man,

rapidly occupying suitable habitats and new territories in which they are capable of

attaining high levels of abundance. A small part of the insect pests may even be

favoured by the change, increasing their impact. On the other hand, a comparable

number of species may be handicapped and they may cause lower levels of damage.

In nature, the insect pests are affected by a number of natural as well as

anthropogenic factors that are mutually combined and conditioned. A further factor is

the capability of insects to compensate for, or become adapted to, the environmental

changes in various ways (Bradshaw & Holzapfel 2001; Visser 2008). That is why

long-term forecasts of the responses of particular insect pests to climate change are

rather uncertain (Cannon 1998).

35

Increased temperatures and earlier onsets of the growing season (documented by

numerous authors) will lead to earlier and accelerated development of a number of

species, resulting in increase of their numbers and greater damage done by the pests

(Parry 1998; Quarles 2007, etc). Accelerated development may decrease the

effectiveness of predators. On the other hand, the accelerated individuals may be

smaller in size and show decreased reproductive capacity. It is very difficult to predict

the resulting abundance of the pest.

Over a half of the insect pests of agricultural crops produce one generation

annually or their development lasts several years, which facts mostly remain

unchanged by climate change, or the number of generations is limited by the

photoperiod. About 30% of species known in the region develop 2 or 3 generations

per year, and slightly over 10% of them even more generations. Insects may very

rapidly adapt to new climatic situations by shifts in temperature thresholds, effective

temperature totals, critical photoperiod lengths without showing any appreciable

changes in their development (e.g. Pullin 1986). Some species will produce more

generations annually in years with extreme temperatures, and this phenomenon may

become regular with gradually warming.

The effect of climate change in temperate regions on wintering pests is

considered one of the major effects (Bale et al. 2002). It is rather widely believed that

warm winters may promote their increase.

Higher temperatures and higher CO2 content may change the quality of vegetable

food. Insect pests may respond in a different way than they do at present, positively or

negatively, their numbers may increase or decrease, and as a result they may consume

the same, greater or smaller amounts of food (Caulfield & Bunce 1994; Buse et al.

1998; Kerslake et al. 1998; Parry 1998), and a change in their practical importance is

unpredictable on a general level. Likewise, assumptions that climatic extremes may

cause more frequent outbreaks of insect pests (e.g. Quarles 2007; Farrow 2008) are

hardly probable in general, as the climatic extremes will negatively affect insect pests

the same as other organisms, yet a higher abundance of some pest species may be

conditioned by dry and hot periods (Mattson & Haack 1987; Rouault et al. 2006).

Finally, non-indigenous species (invasive species) are accidentally or intentionally

introduced by man from other geographic regions. Those non-indigenous species that

are capable of surviving and spreading in external conditions they can find suitable

36

climatic conditions, habitat types and food in a new territory, may become pests of

plants.

2.5 Climate Change and Cyprus

2.5.1 The impact of climate change on the Southern Mediterranean region

The Eastern Mediterranean region is expected to be affected adversely by

climate change. According to detailed regional climate models, which have been

derived from global circulation models downscaled for regional application,

maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase by about 3°C in the

mid-21st century and by more than 4°C by the end of the century, with the strongest

increases to be observed during summer months. Annual precipitation levels are

forecast to decline by 15–25% in the same period. Such projections illustrate that

climate change effects will have serious consequences both for the already scarce

water resources and for the energy needs of the country (Zachariades, T. 2010)

According to the Working Group II of IPCC, relating to Europe, there has

already been recorded enough evidence which show clearly climate change (a trend in

increasing average temperature, high variability of rainfall, etc.) which is

characterized by significant variation between geographic areas. It is also highly

possible that climate change will further extend the diversification and diversity that

currently recorded on the European continent. It is estimated that the extent to which

there is a lack of water resources will increase from 19% that it is today to 35% in

2070. The biggest problems are expected to arise mainly in the southern regions

where rainfall is estimated to be reduced further at around 80%. It is expected that

natural ecosystems and biodiversity will suffer considerable stress and it is probable

that the majority of organisms and ecosystems will have great difficulties to adapt to

climate change.

The impacts of climate change on European agriculture and particularly in the

southern region, in the 21st century and with the assumption of full absence of

adaptation measures, can be summarized in the figure 3 below, which is included in

the European Commission White Paper on Climate change” (2009).

37

Figure 3. Expected impacts of climate change in the European Union

Source: WHITE PAPER. Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action. Adapting to climate change: the challenge for European agriculture and rural area. COM (2009) 147

From the suspected effects it is determined that in South Mediterranean

climate zone, the reduce of water availability is expected to define progressive

destruction of soil fabric, resulting to the removal from the production system of

agricultural areas which will not be considered most suitable for developing crops.

Also, a significant variation in the structure of agricultural production is expected as

crops yields (mainly cereals) will show significant reduction which would make them

uncompetitive and would lead to their replacement with other crops with higher

adaptability to new circumstances.

In April 2009, following the discussion launched in 2007 with the Green Paper

for the adaptation of Europe to climate change, the EU Commission published the

White Paper for the adaptation to climate change and the adoption of a Common

European Framework for action. According to the White Paper, "the most vulnerable

regions in Europe are South Europe, the Mediterranean basin, the outermost regions

and the Arctic. Moreover, mountain regions, especially the Alps, islands, coastal and

urban areas and flood plains with high population density are facing particular

problems".

38

Regarding agriculture, the White Paper states that: “the projected climate

change will affect crop yields, livestock management and the geographical orientation

of production”. Climate change will also have a significant impact on the quality and

quantity of water resources, affecting many sectors, including food production, where

water plays a key role.

2.5.2 Climate tendencies in Cyprus

In the study completed by the Republic of Cyprus on demand of the

Framework Directive 2000/60/EC it is stated that "a significant number of water

bodies has been identified as being at risk of not achieving the goals of the Directive

(Water Development Department 2011). One of the reasons is the pressures from

agricultural activities. Within this context, the RDP 2007-2013 can play an important

role in achieving the goals of the Directive".

The climate change, both locally and globally, is expected to reduce the total

average precipitation in mm per year and Km3 per year proportionally to the rainfall

reduction; increase the actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration in

mm per year and Km3 per year; decrease the total surface runoff at a higher rate than

reduction of precipitation (during the period 1970-2000 the total runoff reduced by

40% compared with a precipitation reduction around 13%); Increase the crop water

demand in mm per year, which means that more water shall be needed to irrigate one

unit area of irrigated land; Increase water demand for general domestic needs per

capita; Reduce groundwater volumes in the coastal aquifers due to the rise of the

seawater; more frequent extreme events which will create problems to the existing

water structures, operational and safety problems as well on their capacity and

reliability to develop and control water resources; springs will dry where stream flows

should reduce and lead to earlier drying up of wetlands with adverse effects on the

biodiversity and the natural water resources.

A reduction in rainfall shall not affect immediately the yield of the aquifers,

but its effect shall be in the medium to long term. Additionally, the forestland and the

rain fed crops shall be adversely affected by the reduction in the precipitation,

desertification shall be expanded to more lands and the economy of the island shall be

adversely affected.

39

Regarding the Coordination between institutions involved in Climate Change,

the Cypriot Council of Ministers has not yet decided the preparation of any plan for

mitigating the effects and/ or for adapting policies to climate change. However, the

climate change is already taking place with a reduction in precipitation and the

temperature increase. The precipitation reduction led to the reduction in the water

availability resulting to a water crisis in three periods, in 1990-91, 1996-2000 and

2007-2008, which forced the various Departments to start working and cooperating on

projects for mitigating the effects. The cooperation included the preparation of

scenarios for water demand management, water augmentation by the construction of

desalination plants, the reuse of wastewater, the encouragement of the use of water

saving measures, the reduction of losses in domestic and irrigation distribution

systems, the introduction of less water demanding crops, etc. The cooperation was

made on administrative, scientific, and technical levels by the transfer of information,

data, know-how, research and development, public awareness, information of the

public about the water situation and promotion of measures through the mass media.

On 15 November 2010 the Council of Ministers enacted the “Single Water

Management Law of 2010” which foresees for the development, protection and

management of water resources in order to ensure their sustainability. The competent

authority to implement the law is the Water Development Department.

2.5.3 Greenhouse gas emissions in Cyprus

Although Cyprus has no commitments at international level to reduce

greenhouse gases, it maintains records for 18 years, relating to emissions of CO2,

CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6, which shows that the total emissions between 1990

and 2007 have increased by 85%.

Figure 4 presents data from the 2009 report "Inventory of greenhouse gas

emissions for 2007 "prepared by the Environment Service, Ministry of Agriculture,

Natural Resources and Environment of Cyprus. The report shows that greenhouse gas

emissions (GHG) from agricultural activity increased by 17.5% between 1990 and

2007 (From 761 Gg in 1990 to 761 Gg in 2007 to equivalent CO2).

40

Figure 4. Gas emissions from Agricultural Activity (Cyprus)

The above quantities of greenhouse gases from agricultural activity in Cyprus

are resulting from the enteric fermentation of the productive livestock (dairy cows,

other cattle, sheep, goats, pigs and poultry), the management and treatment of animal

waste (manure), agricultural soils (addition of synthetic fertilizers, manure, legume

crops, plantations waste), burning of reed beds, etc.

2.5.4 Water Resources in Cyprus

The average annual precipitation over Cyprus is 500mm varying from 300-350

mm in the central plain and the southern coastal areas, to 1100mm on the top of the

Troodos range, mostly falling in the period November to March. The summer mean

daily temperatures are 29°C in the central plains and 22°C in the higher parts of the

Troodos range, with mean maximum temperatures 36°C and 27°C, respectively. In

the winter months the mean daily temperatures are 10°C in the central plains and 3°C

in the higher parts of the Troodos Mountains, while the minimum are 5°C and 0°C,

respectively. The average annual potential evapo-transpiration (ETp) is 950-1000 mm

in the higher parts of Troodos range and 1250-1300 mm in the plain areas. The

Precipitation/ Evapotranspiration ratio in the plain and hilly areas is less than 0, 5,

with lowest values of 0,25 in the central plains, where in the mountain areas is greater

than 0, 5 with values above 0,65 in the western higher parts of the Troodos

Mountains. The potential evapo-transpiration is higher in summer months where

precipitation is almost non-existence during summer months, creating the need for

Gg

of C

O 2 e

quiv

alen

t

41

water storage if satisfaction of demands is to be secured (European Environment

Agency, 2004).

In order to increase the availability of water and decrease the demand, during

the past 40 years, Cyprus invested not only in water infrastructure but also in demand

management measures. However, due to the reduction of the annual precipitation and

the prolonged and recurring droughts, coupled with a high increase in demand due to

tourism development (e.g. golf courses, swimming pools), the natural water resources

cannot satisfy demand. Confronted with this lack of water, the Ministry of

Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment, through the Water Development

Department has, since 1997, resorted to supplying non-conventional water resources

by means of desalination techniques, wastewater reclamation and re-use and

utilization of low quality water. Today, water management efforts in Cyprus

concentrate not only on the efficient use of the available conventional water resources

but also on the use of non-conventional water resources and the promotion of a water

conservation culture amongst its population (Directorate – General for Maritime

Affairs and Fisheries, 2009).

Two permanent and two mobile desalination plants currently operate on the

island with a total capacity of 63 million m³/year. Recently in the water balance of the

country were added significant amounts of desalinated seawater and water from the

reuse of purified wastewater. At the same time, was promoted the use of improved

irrigation systems to the 95% of irrigated crops, with an annual water savings of

around 55 million cubic meters. As also this resource is not sufficient to satisfy

demand the Government of Cyprus has applied a drastic Drought Mitigation and

Response Plan with a series of emergency measures, including the transfer of potable

water from Greece, limitation of the public supply of water to agriculture and

restrictions on the supply of drinking water to households, limiting the supply to only

36 hours per week. Furthermore, an effort is also made to integrate recycled

wastewater into the water balance. Today 14.5 million m³ of recycled wastewater is

produced each year in Cyprus and is re-used in agriculture and landscape irrigation,

increasing the availability of freshwater for domestic use. Annual water recycling is

estimated to increase to 52 million m³ by 2012. At the same time water demand

management measures such as improving water supply distribution networks based on

leakage detection is another continuous effort of the government of Cyprus. Finally,

42

Cyprus has also been investing in the promotion of a water conservation culture

through lectures for students as well as media campaigns and participation in

environment protection festivals and fairs. The use of lower grade water and water

conservation practices through a subsidization scheme, in effect since 1997, is also

promoted.

Cyprus being an island all its natural renewable water resources depends on

the precipitation falling on its surface. This means that reduction of the precipitation

due to climatic change has a direct effect on the availability of the natural resources of

the island. From the total presently developed and used water resources, 87% are

conventional and 13% are non conventional. Of the total conventional water

resources, which amount to 132,9 MCM, 103,9 MCM are surface water directly

related to the climate change, where the remaining 129,0MCM are from groundwater

resources being more reliable and less vulnerable to climatic change since

groundwater reservoir capacities are 10 times more than surface reservoirs.

On the demand side the two main consumers of the available water are

agriculture (69%) and households and tourism (25%). The normal practice followed

by the Department of Water Resources is to cover at first priority the demand for

drinking needs and at a later stage to distribute the rest in agricultural and livestock

activities. Taking into consideration that in recent years the water balance has been

enriched with new quantities of desalinized and treated water it is expected that more

quantities of fresh water collected in the dams will be available for agriculture.

However, the amount of water available each year for agriculture is neither stable, nor

secured because its availability is directly related to the precipitation.

In the frame of water shortage faced every year, farmers try to cover their

needs with more expensive groundwater; a development that leads to the

overexploitation of groundwater and to the intrusion of sea water in the coastal

aquifers.

2.5.5 Desertification

Desertification, land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid, which

is caused by various factors including climatic change and human activities, is a

phenomenon affecting many countries in the world, among them Cyprus. The global

43

concern has led the United Nations in shaping the Convention to Combat

Desertification, which Cyprus ratified in 1999.

The causes that contribute to desertification are many and may be related to

natural phenomena (such as prolonged droughts, intense rainfall causing soil erosion)

and human activities such as farming, land development and pollution and

degradation of soils (Deliverable 2.9. Vakakis S.A. 2009).

The designation of the areas threatened by desertification under the concept of

Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESA), was made by analyzing factors and processes

leading to desertification based on available data in Cyprus and international

references in the study “Consultation Services for the Production of a National Action

Plan to Combat Desertification in Cyprus”, conducted by I.A.C.O. Ltd. (2008).

According to the study the key indices that contribute to desertification are: a)

quality of soil, b) quality of climate, c) quality of vegetation and d) quality of

management. Each of these is made up of a number of parameters such as for soil: -

texture, parent material, depth, slope, drainage conditions and surface coarse material,

for the climate: - rainfall and bioclimatic drought index and, aspect, for the vegetation:

- fire risk, erosion protection, resilience to drought and, vegetation cover, and for the

management: -land use intensity, and policy implementation.

It is concluded that some 3% of the island is characterized as arid, 91% as

semi-arid, 4.5% as sub-humid and 1,5% as humid. No area was identified as being

below the threshold limit signifying desertification while the areas that do not face

any desertification problem are only 1,5% located at the highest parts of the Troodos

Mountains. This area is enveloped by a sub-humid area (4,5%) of a reduced

sensitivity. The largest part of the remaining areas (91%), are characterized as

semiarid with an increased sensitivity, while 3% are immediately threatened.

Map 1 presents the detailed designation of the ESAs. The ESAs considered as

“Critical” take up 57% of the island. Some 42,3% are considered as “Sensitive” and

only some 0,7% is considered as “Potential” to desertification.

44

Map 1: Geographical distribution of the Environmentally Sensitive Areas to Desertification

Chapter 3

Methodology

Appendix 2 of this study includes a climatic model which estimates the

expected reduction in crop production due to climatic change during 2014-2020. The

conclusions of this model are presented in the executive summary and in chapter 4.3.

The estimations made in this first part are entirely independent of the model

used in the climatic model (Appendix 2). Therefore, apart from the loss in crop

productivity, in order to assess the economic impact of climate change on Cypriot

agriculture, other parameters are taken into consideration. These indirect losses

include the most evident impacts according to the national literature (excluding

temperature and precipitation) which include the following: increase in atmospheric

CO2 concentration; increased frequency of extreme weather events; increased

occurrence of diseases and pests; intensity of competition in water use in agriculture;

diversification of agricultural production and agricultural trade; increased costs to

meet the cost of irrigation, of appropriate propagation material, special fertilizers and

damage from extreme weather; overcharge of the environment; ecosystems and

45

biodiversity (loss of native species); reduction of agricultural income; increase in

prices of agricultural products; change in productivity and yields; burden of soil

fertility and erosion; and increased fire phenomena.

At a first stage the available statistical data are utilized in order to assess

whether there are indications of reduced value on production due to weather

conditions. In this respect, the yearly value of production per sector has been

evaluated, trying to interlink the value of crop production with the “bad years” in

terms of weather conditions.

At a second stage and due to the absence of sufficient and accurate data

concerning the impact of climate change on each of the above parameters, the

Contingent Valuation Method was employed in order to assess the economic impact

of the aforementioned parameters on Cypriot economy. The procedure followed to

execute the CVM includes the following steps: (a) preparation of a relevant

questionnaire (Appendix 4) with questions related to the direct and indirect impacts of

climate change, (b) validation of the questionnaire in pretesting process, (c) collection

of data form Cypriot and foreign experts panel, and (d) analysis of the results and

estimation of the available information.

3.1. Expected economic impact of climate change on crops

According to the study “Climate Change and the European Water

Dimension” (2005) climate change will affect agricultural crops directly via changes

in CO2, temperature, and precipitation and indirectly via soil processes, weeds, pests

and diseases, with difficult to predict positive and negative effects. Climate change

will impact directly agriculture by the alteration of meteorological conditions, which

is the major driving force of crop production, and indirectly since agriculture is

competing with other sectors for water allocation. Increasing temperature will have

negative effects due to a generally higher evaporative demand, the higher frequency

of heat waves, and possible increases in competition with weeds. At the same time

pest and diseases may spread more widely. In southern EU latitudes the actual

cultivars might not be adapted to the predicted higher temperatures. With

temperatures exceeding the temperature range for optimum growth, a reduction in net

46

growth and yield is expected in this region. In the Mediterranean region a general

reduction in cereal yields is expected due to drier conditions.

It is obvious that the expected economic impact of climate change on crops

will be a combination of reduced crop volumes and increased intermediate expenses.

More specifically, low precipitation and increased temperatures will lead to higher

water demand which will also increase the irrigation expenses. Moreover, possible

increase in pest, disease and weed incidents and spreads will lead to increased pest

control expenses. Other climate change impacts like soil fertility, soil and water

salinity and soil erosion will lead to either failure of crops or deterioration of product

quality.

Many authors worldwide studying the economic impact of climate change

employ sophisticated climatic models in order to attach monetary values in the

expected economic losses. However, due to the vagueness, or difficulty to measure

some parameters like for instance the loss of biodiversity, other approaches (e.g.

Willingness to Pay) could also be utilized. Under this consideration the present study

utilizes both the climatic model as well as the willingness to pay approaches.

3.2 Analysis of statistical data

Simple data analysis was conducted on the available statistics referring to the

years 1981 to 2008. The data set includes precipitation levels and value of crop

production. It is important to clarify that the comparison was made between normal

precipitation years, i.e. years with yearly precipitation approximately 500 mm versus

“bad years”, i.e. years with precipitation far, or far below average.

3.3 Contingent Valuation Method

According to OECD “Contingent valuation refers to the method of valuation used

in cost-benefit analysis and environmental accounting. It is conditional (contingent)

on the construction of hypothetical markets, reflected in expressions of the

willingness to pay for potential environmental benefits or for the avoidance of their

loss”. Additionally, “valuation method where hypothetical situations are presented to

a representative sample of the relevant population in order to elicit statements about

how much they would be willing to pay for specific environmental services”.

47

The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) is used to estimate economic values for

all kinds of ecosystem and environmental services and it can be used to estimate both

use and non use values, and it is the most widely used method for estimating non-use

values. It is also the most controversial of the non-market valuation methods.

The CVM involves directly asking people, in a survey, how much they would be

willing to pay for specific environmental services. In some cases, people are asked

for the amount of compensation they would be willing to accept to give up specific

environmental services.

The CVM is referred to as a “stated preference” method, because it asks people to

directly state their values, rather than inferring values from actual choices, as the

“revealed preference” methods do. The fact that CV is based on what people say they

would do, as opposed to what people are observed to do, is the source of its greatest

strengths and its greatest weaknesses.

Contingent valuation is one of the only ways to assign money values to non-use

values of the environment—values that do not involve market purchases and may not

involve direct participation. These values are sometimes referred to as “passive use”

values. They include everything from the basic life support functions associated with

ecosystem health or biodiversity, to the enjoyment of a scenic vista or a wilderness

experience, to appreciating the option to fish or bird watch in the future, or the right to

bequest those options to your grandchildren. It also includes the value people place on

simply knowing that giant pandas or whales exist.

The main controversy of CVM is the fact that it is based on asking people

questions, as opposed to observing their actual behavior.

In this study the questionnaire prepared, included all known aspects of climate

change in the form of questions and the respondents were asked to assign the amount

of money they are willing to pay in order to offset, or avoid the relevant climate

change impact.

3.4 Adaptation to climate change

According to the EU General Directorate for Agriculture and Rural Development

(2008), a wide range of adaptive measures ranging from technological options on-

farm to improved farm managerial practices and political tools (e.g. adaptation action

plans) already exist. Some actions suggested to farmers to cope with projected

48

changes in climate conditions include change in crop rotation to make best use of

available water, adjustment of sowing dates according to temperature and rainfall

patterns, use of crop varieties which are better suited to new weather conditions (e.g.

more resilient to heat and drought), or planting hedgerows or small wooded areas on

arable land that reduce water run-off and act as wind-breaks. Also, it is assessed that

farmers cannot shoulder the burden of climate change alone and that public policy

should provide the right support to enable them adapt their farm structures and

production methods and continue providing services to the rural environment. It is

assessed that by helping farmers’ access to risk management tools (like insurance

schemes) may also help them cope with losses from weather-related disasters linked

to climate change. At EU level, rural development policy provides opportunities to

offset adverse effects that climate change may have for farmers and rural economies

by, for example, providing support for investment in more efficient irrigation

equipment. Additionally, agri-environmental schemes encouraging better

management of soil and water resources are considered important for adaptation.

It is expected that climate change will lead to significant changes in crop and

animal yields. Those changes, either primary or secondary effects of climate change,

will depend on the response of farming population to adapt to expected changes.

Some key actions for adaptation include: changes in agricultural land use towards

excellent management conditions of degraded soils, abandoned land and

desertification avoidance; changes in the location of crops, which are expected to arise

because of adaptation of Mediterranean crops to northern areas, directly resulting to

the diversification of agricultural production at regions and climatic zones; changes in

cultivated varieties, which will result from the attempt to use either native varieties

distinguished by greater adaptability to the environment originated, or new varieties

with specific genetic characteristics created as research outcome in the field of

biotechnology and recombination of genetic material; changes in the structure and

productivity of livestock production; and changes in the insurance status of

agricultural production due to more frequent extreme weather events. Limited

resistance of crops to the effects of extreme weather phenomena and, more generally,

to climate change, will make insurance prohibitive, and therefore new systems should

be sought.

49

Chapter 4

Estimation results

4.1 Results from statistical data analysis

Based on the available statistical data referring to years 1981 to 2008, the

precipitation in years 1991, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2008 was far below the average.

More specifically, the average precipitation during these five years was only 332 mm,

or 66% of the normal. In contrast, years 1987, 1993, 1995, 2004 and 2007 are

considered normal years in terms of precipitation with an average 509mm per year.

Table 2. Comparisons of crop value added in good and bad years

Year Precipitation Precipitation Value added % change in value

Bad years

1991 282 56 188.0 -4.5

1996 383 76 211.5 -4.7

2000 363 72 195.0 -6.4

2006 360 71 180.3 -0.7

2008 272 54 190.2 -3.7

Average 332 66 193.0 -4.0

Good years

1987 520 103 155.0 16.2

1993 509 101 214.6 2.1

1995 493 98 230.4 17.8

2004 545 108 185.6 -2.3

2007 479 95 194.6 4.0

Average 509 101 196.0 7.6

In an effort to interpret the impacts of low precipitation on crop production

which is mostly affected the two sets of “bad” and “good” years were compared (table

2). It is clarified that other agricultural subsectors are not examined mainly due to the

fact that they are rather indirectly affected by low precipitation. The average

reduction, or increase, of crop production value added in the “bad” or “good” years

was compared to the previous year’s value added. Although low precipitation affects

50

not only the current year’s but also the production in the following years especially in

the case of perennial trees, for simplification reasons it was supposed that low

precipitation affects only the current year’s production. It was found that on average

the value added of crop production in current prices was reduced by 4% in the “bad”

years and increased by 7,6% in the “good” years. With an average value added close

to €200 million it is estimated that the expected value added of crop production will

be reduced by €8 million in each bad year.

According to the trend recorded in recent years the level of precipitation is

lower, or far lower of the normal, every second year. Therefore, given that the

situation in terms of precipitation is worsening year after year, it is expected that

during the seven year programming period 2014-2020 four years will give

precipitation below the average. Based on the above estimations the total reduction in

value added of crop production could reach €56 million for the whole programming

period.

4.2 Results from Contingent Analysis

Results of climate change impact assessment table 3 (Appendix 3) summarizes the

valuation of external impacts of climate change, expressed in monetary units

maximum, minimum and average annual willingness to pay, of the members of the

focus group (experts) as assessed using the hypothetical or dependent valuation,

including the respective standard deviations. It is worth noticing that in almost all

impacts the minimum value is zero while the maximum value ranged from 22 to 71

euros approximately. In all cases, both the minimum and maximum value, determined

on the basis of standard deviation. Specifically, the maximum values were estimated

as the sum of the average values and the respective standard deviations and minimum

values as differences of average values and corresponding standard deviations (in

each case the minimum values must be greater than or equal to zero). In this way it is

considered to achieve more representative evaluation avoiding extreme values and the

possibility of too positive or too negative estimations of willingness to pay is avoided.

However, higher importance has table 4 (Appendix 3) which includes the

attribute of the average values of each impact in both the agricultural community and

the total population (agricultural and non agricultural) of the research area. The final

summation of impacts of this table represents the total cost of climate change which

51

amounts yearly to €71.84 million for the agricultural population and €240.73 million

for the total population. Finally, the chart (Appendix 3) depicts schematically the

hierarchy of impacts on the basis of their mean value also presenting the relative

standard deviations. It is worth noting that the most significant impact refers to the

increasing amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and

ecosystems, while as less significant impacts are considered the variability of

productivity and diversification of agricultural production and trade of agricultural

products.

4.3. Results from climate variability simulation1

Climate change projections for Cyprus from an ensemble of six Regional Climate

Models, under the medium A1B emission scenario of the UN Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-SRES), indicated an increase in temperatures and

highly variable but slightly lower precipitation amounts for the 2013/14-2019/20

seasons.

Two climate scenarios were simulated: (1) a worst case scenario, represented by

the seven dry years from the 1980/81-2008/09 record; and (2) a medium scenario

made up of three dry years, two average years and two wet years, each with the

highest evapotranspiration rates within their class. For both scenarios, irrigation water

demand was reduced to 129*106 m3 /yr, as recommended by recent national water

management policies, which was achieved by cutting all irrigated crop areas of the

2010 CAPO crop areas by 25%. The computed annual national crop production for

2013/14-2019/2020 is estimated to be reduced by 41%, on average, under scenario 1

and by 43% under scenario 2, relative to 1980/81-2008/09. Taking into consideration

that the value added of the crop production is close to €200 mn on average the loss of

crop production in the period 2014-2010 will reach from €574 to €602 mn.

4.3 Cost of adaptation

In the absence of local estimations for the cost of adaptation international studies

have been utilized. The study “Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change; A

review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates” (2009) raises the total funding for

adaptation by 2030 from $49 to $171 billion per annum globally, of which $27 – $66 1 See appendix 2

52

billion would accrue in developing countries. The largest cost item is infrastructure

investment, which for the upper bound estimate accounts for three-quarters of total

costs. Costs are over and above what would have to be invested in the baseline to

renew the capital stock and accommodate income and population growth. It is

important noting that the total cost excludes the estimate for ecosystem adaptation.

The global cost for agriculture is estimated at $14 billion, for water at $11 billion, for

human health at $5 billion, for coastal zones at $11 billion and for infrastructure

improvements/ developments at $8-130 billion per year.

According to the World Bank, Cyprus in 2009 produced $21,349 billion out of

$72,536,974 billion of the global GDP, or 0,03%. Based on this estimation and taking

into consideration the above figures referring the global cost of adaptation, the yearly

cost of adaptation to the Cypriot economy could reach from $14 to $50 million.

Regarding the cost on agriculture and water ($14 + $11 = $25 billion) it will reach to

$7,4 million per year (or approximately €5,3 million). The total rough cost on

agriculture for the seven year period (2014-2020) is estimated at €37 million.

Chapter 5

Conclusions

In an effort to estimate the cost of climate change on Cypriot agriculture three

different techniques have been employed. The first refers to a simple data analysis of

the available statistics; the second employees the Contingent Valuation Method; and

the third is a variability climate model. Additionally, the cost of adaptation projected

by international studies has been also estimated.

According to the available statistical data it is estimated that on average the value

added of crop production was reduced by 4% in the “bad” years and increased by

7,6% in the “good” years. It is expected that during the seven year programming

period 2014-2020 four years will be “bad years” with a precipitation below the

average, leading to a total reduction of €56 million in the value added of crop

production.

Using the Contingent Valuation Method and based on a experts responses

regarding the willingness to pay in order to avoid climate change impacts it is

concluded that in the seven-year programming period 2014-2020 the total cost of

53

climate change on agriculture will reach around € 503.0 million. It is worth noting

that the most significant impact refers to the increasing level of CO2 in the

atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and ecosystems, while the less significant

impacts refer to the fluctuation in productivity and diversification of agricultural

production and trade of agricultural products

Analysis of two possible climate change scenarios represented by more dry years,

higher evaporative demand, and less irrigation water supply, which resulted in a

reduction of the 2010 irrigated area by 25%, projected a possible reduction of 41 to

43% in total national crop production for 2013/14-2019/2020, relative to 1980/81-

2008/09. Interpreting this reduction in monetary values it is estimated that the value

added of crop production in the programming period 21014-2020 will be reduced by

€574 to €602 mn.

Regarding the adaptation to climate change is an ongoing process already started

in many places worldwide, including Cyprus. Rough estimations about the cost of

adaptation could be found in various studies. Lending the estimations of UNFCCC

(2009) and based on the contribution of Cyprus to the global GDP, the yearly cost of

adaptation to the Cypriot economy could reach from $14 to $50 million. The cost on

agriculture and water will reach €5,3 million per year and the total rough cost for the

seven year period is estimated at €37 million.

54

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1

APPENDICES

2

APPENDIX 1 General review of the agricultural sector in 2008

The agricultural sector exhibited a decrease of 10,5% in the total production

during the year 2008 compared to the previous year. This is attributed to the

unfavorable weather conditions, especially the water scarcity problem, which resulted

in the decrease of the volume of crop production, mainly for cereals, straw and green

fodder, that decreased by 90,0%, 85,0% and 87,6%, respectively. The value of

livestock production exhibited an increase of 13,6% compared to the previous year.

The total gross output of the broad agricultural sector increased by 6,2% at

current prices and reached €682,1 mn. in 2008 compared to €642,5 mn. in 2007. In

real values, gross output decreased by 10,5% in 2008 continuing the decrease of 1,0%

which occurred in 2007. In real terms, crop production decreased by 26,5%, forestry

production by 8,6% and the hunting sub-sector by 12,8%, while livestock production

and ancillary production recorded an increase of 0,8% and 6,9% respectively.

The sector’s value added at current market prices reached €349,3 mn. while, in

real terms, value added decreased by 42,8% in 2008 compared to the decrease of

9,5%, in 2007.

Exports of agricultural products recorded a decrease of 3,5% in value terms reaching

€116,6 mn. in 2008 compared to €120,9 mn. in 2007. This is attributed mainly to the

decrease in the value of exports of potatoes, which decreased from €56,3 mn. in 2007

to €46,9 mn. in 2008. The earnings from citrus fruit exports remained at €29,4 mn. in

2008 and earnings from grape exports increased from €0,1 mn. in 2007 to €0,4 mn. in

2008. The European Union countries absorbed 67,1% of agricultural exports in 2008

in comparison to 72,6% in 2007.

Employment in the agricultural sector recorded a decrease, falling to 25.290

persons in 2008 compared to 26.319 in 2007. The share of employment in agriculture

in relation to the total economically active population was 6,3% in 2008, compared to

6,6% in 2007, 7,2% in 2006 and 7,8% in 2005.

Crop Production experienced a decrease both in volume and value terms. The

volume of crop production in 2008 decreased by an overall25,9%. The total value of

crop production dropped to €284,4 mn. in 2008 from €295,4 mn. in 2007, recording a

decrease of 3,7%. The developments in the production levels of the main crops during

2008 are outlined below:

3

Rain fed crops recorded a significant decrease in 2008. Cereal production

continued dropping and reached 6.341 tons in 2008 from 63.533 tons in 2007,

recording a decrease of 90,0%.

Wine grape production had a marginal decrease and dropped to 29.295 tons in

2008

compared to 29.433 tons in 2007. A significant increase was recorded in carob

production, increasing to 6.519 tons in 2008 compared to 3.839 tons in 2007, whereas

the production of almonds exhibited a significant decrease of 35,3% and dropped to

432 tons in 2008 from 668 tons in 2007.

Olive production in 2008 increased by 13,6% and reached 15.573 tons from

13.705 tons in 2007.

Most irrigated crops exhibited a decrease in production during 2008, with

some crops in particular reaching unsatisfactory levels.

Potato production decreased to 115.000 tons in 2008 as opposed to 155.500

tons in 2007, recording a decrease of 26,0%. Potato production income decreased

from €51,2 mn. in 2007 to €42,2 mn. in 2008.

In total, the volume of production of vegetables recorded a decrease in 2008,

while the production prices increased by 21,5%. Most of the vegetables exhibited a

decrease in the volume of production, except carrots, haricot beans dry and cabbages,

which recorded a slight increase in the volume of production.

Citrus fruit recorded a decrease in the volume of production in 2008. The total

citrus fruit production decreased by 9,1% in 2008 dropping to 111.783 tons from

122.911 tons in 2007. In particular, orange production decreased by 10,1% reaching

37.847 tons and mandarin production decreased by 21,9% reaching 31.195 tons.

Lemon production recorded an increase of 7,5%, reaching 15.214 tons and grapefruits

by 3,1% reaching 27.527 tons. Citrus fruit exports reached 51.086 tons in 2008,

recording a decrease of 8,9% compared to the previous year. The prices secured by

citrus producers were decreased by 15,4% in 2008.

Other fresh fruit experienced a decrease of 12,7% in 2008 in relation to 2007

in terms of volume of production, while prices increased at an average of 21,1% in

2008. Considerably higher prices were recorded for pears, peaches and nectarines,

apricots and kaishia, bananas, loquats and avocadoes.

4

The production of livestock sub-sector exhibited an increase in the value of

livestock production by 13,6% reaching €336,2 mn. in 2008 in comparison to €296,0

mn. in 2007.

Meat production had an overall increase of 5,0% in 2008. Pork, which is the

main type of meat consumed, recorded an increase of 7,6% reaching 59.173 tons.

Sheep and goat meat increased by 1,5% reaching 7.211 tons in 2008. Beef meat

production also increased by 8,4% and reached 4.248 and last, poultry production

decreased by 0,3% reaching 28.727 tons in 2008.

Egg production increased by 15,2% in 2008 reaching 9.880 tons from 8.577

tons in 2007.

Milk production recorded an increase of 6,3% and reached to 194.981 tons in

2008 as opposed to 183.480 tons in 2007. During 2008, cow milk, which constitutes

78,1% of the total milk production, recorded an increase of 5,7% and reached to

152.264 tons from 144.100 tons of the previous year. Sheep and goat milk production

registered an increase of 8,5% reaching to 42.717 tons in 2008. Producers’ prices of

cow milk increased by 18,2%, sheep milk by 7,2% and goat milk price by 7,8%,

compared to

the prices of the previous year.

The gross output of forestry exhibited a decrease and dropped to €3,3 mn. in

2008. Timber production recorded an increase and from 14.571 cubic metres in 2007

reached to 16.392 cubic metres in 2008. Charcoal production recorded a decrease, and

from 3.360 tons in 2007 dropped to 2.970 tons in 2008. As far as other forest products

are concerned, fuel wood production recorded a significant decrease compared to

2007 and dropped to €167.490 from €249.892. The production of plants, seeds,

Christmas trees etc., decreased by 19,0% and reached €229.700 in 2008 as compared

to €283.560 in 2007. Reforestation increased by 14,1% in 2008 compared to 2007.

1

APPENDIX 2 Effect of climate variability and climate change on crop production and water resources in Cyprus

1

APPENDIX 3 ESTIMATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS USING NON-MARK ET

VALUATION METHOD

A. Michaelides*, M. Markou**, A. Stylianou** 2

1. Introduction

This chapter refers to the process of valuing non-market effects of climate

change. Originally a brief description of valuation methods with emphasis on the

theoretical background of willingness to pay is provided. The description of the

method of hypothetical or dependent evaluation, which is used to measure willingness

to pay, follows. Finally, the chapter concludes with the presentation of financial

results exporting techniques used in the evaluation of key external impacts of climate

change.

Often, during the evaluation process of a development project (or a

phenomenon such as climate change), a series of goods and services are resulted for

which a specific market does not exist and therefore do not have a market price

(Mergos 2002:133). Such goods are human health, diseases causing, the transport

time, the quality of life, the quality of the natural environment, etc. The quantification

of these goods and in particular the valuation in monetary terms is often omitted from

the evaluation process because of the significant assessment difficulty. So, often are

ignored by the analysis with the result a range of developmental effects of a project

not estimated at all.

In Greece and Cyprus, the research in this field is still in its infancy. There

have been some individual efforts to study the external effects arising from large

infrastructure projects, but they examine different sides of the issue (Vakrou etc.,

1996, Arampatzis et al, 2002, Michaelides, 2004).

Clyne (2007), Easterling et al. (2007) and Duncan (2009) distinguish the

effects of climate change in costs and external influences (externalities), according to

the data in Table 1 below.

2 *Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, **Agricultural Research Institute

2

Table 1 – General background of socio-economic impact analysis of climate

change

Costs and externalities

1. Increasing of CO2 concentration

2. Warming

3. Variation in rainfall

4. Increased frequency of extreme weather events

5. Increased occurrence of diseases and pests

6. Intensity of competition in water use in agriculture

7. Diversification of agricultural production and agricultural trade

8. Increased spending on tackling the cost of irrigation water, appropriate propagation

material, special fertilizers and damage from extreme weather phenomena

9. Burden on the environment, ecosystems and of biodiversity (loss of native species)

10. Reduction of farm income

11. Increase in price of agricultural products

12. Change in productivity and yields

Source: Clyne (2007), Easterling et al. (2007) and Duncan (2009)

On this basis it was considered appropriate to investigate the maximum

willingness to pay of residents and especially the local farmers, to avoid the negative

externalities of climate change. However, it was appropriate to include in the survey a

sample group of experts (rather than the farmers themselves) who were considered to

have better knowledge of climate change phenomenon and therefore their estimates

will reach a better reality. Moreover, this process of climate change did not appear

suddenly and not completed until today. Therefore, members of the experts’ team

have already gained relevant experience of climate change, knowing that it is a

continuous phenomenon, with particular low paste, and probably with increasing

intensity. The calculation of willingness to pay is expected to contribute significantly

to the determination of the cost of climate change impacts and thus lead to their better

management.

3

2. Methods for evaluation external influences

Under these circumstances, it becomes clear the inability of traditional cost-

benefit analysis and confirmed the need to estimate certain additional parameters. The

integration of these parameters on cost-benefit analysis is one of the most interesting

and newly formed involvement levels in economic science (Mergos 2002:142).

According to the international literature for the measurement of consumers’

willingness to pay for public goods, or for the improvement of private goods, the

method widely used is the Method of Hypothetical or Dependent Evaluation.

Alternatively the travel cost method and the method of administrative arrangements

can be implemented (Mergos 2002:142-148).

2.1. Method of Assessment Hypothetical or dependent

The method of Hypothetical or Dependent Evaluation (Contingent Valuation

Method) was originally proposed in 1963 by Davis for the valuation of goods and

services for which there was no market and hence market price (Mergos 2002:142).

This technique is now widely known and accepted, following a theoretical and

empirical combination on the basis of which is feasible to calculate the economic

value of a broad range of commodities, non-traded in the market.

The Method of Hypothetical Assessment uses questions to elicit consumer

preferences for public goods on what they would be willing to pay for specific

improvements to them. Overrides the absence of markets for public goods, creating

hypothetical markets in which consumers have the opportunity to buy the good

searched. Due to the fact that the values-prices derived from the willingness to pay

(WTP) are hypothetical- contingent upon the particular hypothetical market described

to the respondent, the method named Dependent or Hypothetical Assessment Method

(Mitchell and Carson, 1989). However, the method can be applied to measure the

maximum willingness to pay in respect of private goods (Kealy and Turner, 1993).

If the survey is well designed and monitored carefully, the answers of

respondents to the evaluation questions should represent valid responses to the

willingness to pay. The next step is to use the amounts encountered in the

development of useful calculations. If the sample is selected carefully and with

random sampling or process, or consists of a group of experts, if the response rate of

respondents is quite high and if the necessary adjustments for those who responded

4

and those who do not have good quality data (non- respondents) have been made, the

results can be generalized to the entire population from which the sample was taken. It

should be noted that the generalization of the results consists a strong feature of the

method of sample survey.

2.2. Travel Cost Method

The method of travel costs or travel costs (travel cost method) was established

in order to determine the demand for public (non-tradable) goods using the observed

travel costs or other expenses makes a person when consuming those goods (Vakrou

others, 1996).

First, Hotelling in 1947 suggested to the Commission of National Parks of

USA the use of a travel expenses counted as a crucial parameter for determining the

cost of a recreation experience (Prewitt, 1949). According to the logic of Hotelling,

consumers who travel long distances for a recreation, lend it greater value than those

who traveled shorter distances. Thus, those who traveled shorter distances are

effecting a saving due to lower costs (consumer surplus) which is the gain

corresponding to them (Murphy and Gardiner, 1984).

In 1959, Clawson, and in 1966 Clawson and Knetsch, adjusted the idea of

Hotelling beyond travel costs and other expenses as deterministic values. Their aim

was to calculate a demand function for each recreational area using the proportions of

visits that were corresponding to various travel costs or leisure service prices.

Travel Cost Method has become widely accepted by researchers and

organizations for assessing the value of national forests and parks and other natural

resources (Vakrou et al, 1996). In the U.S.A., after the recognition and acceptance by

the Council on Water Resources (WRC, 1979) it is widely used to assess both land

and water recreation resources.

In Greece, the method has been applied by Eleftheriadis (1980) for the

assessment of coastal pine forests in Thassos, Karameros (1987) for the evaluation of

peri-urban forests in Thessaloniki and by Vakrou (1993) to assess the national Park of

Olympus.

5

2.3. Method of administrative arrangements

The method of administrative arrangements applies mainly for the valuation of

environmental impacts (Mergos 2002:148). The basis is the formulated legislative

framework within which government agencies require minimum acceptable limits of

environmental requirements. In order for investment projects to be environmentally

acceptable, i.e. projects that would not have adverse environmental impacts,

administrative restrictions and limitations are imposed under which those projects are

designed and implemented. Such restrictions may relate to the maximum emission of

exhaust gases, the accepted volume of swage, etc.

It is clear that these arrangements affect the cost of the project, to a point

which often may make it financially unsustainable and socio-economically

unintentional (Mergos 2002:148). Using these administrative intervention

arrangements the environmental dimensions of various development projects may be

introduced indirectly in the Cost-Benefit Analysis.

2.4. Technical Export Results

The goal of the Hypothetical Assessment researcher is to be able to obtain the

maximum value of a good which the respondent intends to pay for its acquisition. A

simple way to do this is to ask the consumer the maximum price he will pay for the

acquisition of this specific good and record the answer. Unfortunately, however,

respondents often fail to give value to a good without some assistance. This problem

has led researchers to experiment with answer elicit techniques, trying to make it

easier for respondents in the evaluation process, simplifying the selection process or

offering a general framework under which a good is evaluated. Such techniques

helped reduce the number of zero responses and, according to the interviewers, the

respondents have been facilitated to the successful integration of the evaluation

process.

Summarizing all the above, Mitchell and Carson (1989) presented the

following classes of results extraction techniques for the Hypothetical Evaluation

Method

6

Table 2 - Categories of results extraction techniques

Provision of the actual willingness to pay

Provision of separate indications of willingness to

pay

Simple question

- Straight "open" question

- Payment Card

- Auction with sealed offer

- Acceptance or disclaimer of the offer ("closed" question)

- Ask for costs

- List of answers with spaces

Repeated series of questions

- Offers Game

- Oral auction

- Bid accepted or waived repeatedly

Source: Mitchell and Carson,, 1989:98

The above table lists nine results extraction techniques grouped in two

directions:

• whether the actual maximum willingness to pay for the goods under

investigation is given

• whether for the measurement of willingness to pay a simple question or a

series of recurring questions are asked.

Mitchell and Carson (1989) considered separately the four basic methods of

results extraction which are used more by the researchers of the Hypothetical

Assessment Method:

• The Offers Game (The bidding game)

• The Technique of Paying Card (Payment card)

• The Method of Acceptance – Disclaimer

• The Method of Acceptance - Disclaimer by repeating

Researchers of the Hypothetical Evaluation Method have used different results

extraction techniques related to the amount respondents are willing to pay. Of the

methods mentioned above, the Offers Game is not appropriate because it is prone to

bias at the starting point. Each of the other techniques requires the researcher to be

attentive due to the disadvantages they present.

7

The methods of acceptance - disclaimer seem to be preferred in the last few years

because they simplify the evaluation process and why they can be used in postal or

telephone surveys. Although it seems to converge to the model of the referendum, the

methods of acceptance - disclaimer are independent of the above model.

3. Description of methodology

A presentation of quantitative research for a brief description of the

methodological framework of research conducted for the collection of primary data is

provided. Specifically, the methodology used, the analysis took place and the

restrictions that existed in terms of its design are described. In parallel, there is a

summary of the sections of the questionnaire used.

The survey was based on primary data collected using a questionnaire completed

by email. The period of the survey was from May to June 2011, while participating in

this was a focus group of 19 experts from Cyprus. In order the survey results to

qualify for the generalization for the entire population of the area investigated, as

potential recipients of the impacts of climate change faced all local residents

considered suitable to participate in the research and therefore the generalization of

the results was made to the entire population of Cyprus.

4. Questionnaire

The drafting of the questionnaire began in April 2011 and completed in May of

that year. After the preparation it was tested on a small sample of people. The main

purpose of the driver survey was to identify potential weaknesses and to explore the

respective necessary improvements to the structure of the questionnaire. In parallel, a

countdown of the average required time for filling the questionnaire was conducted.

Thus, the questionnaire was finalized. The drafting of the questionnaire was based on

the study of relevant literature after the necessary modifications in order to meets the

specific purpose of research (Oppenheim, 1992. Daoutopoulos, 2000. Javeau, 1996.

Karameros, 1996. Siardos, 1997 . Kyriazis, 1998).

The questionnaire is divided into two sections:

1. Willingness to pay. To measure the respondents willingness to pay of a

maximum value to avoid the negative impacts of climate change, the method

of " payment card" was used, where members of the focus group are asked to

8

specify the additional percentage of money up to which they would pay in

each case for the elimination of the negative impact (if not agree with this

value are required to determine themselves the maximum price willing to pay).

2. Demographics. This section includes questions on demographic and

socioeconomic variables of members of the focus group (gender, age, number

of household members, marital status, education level, annual household

income and occupation of respondents).

5. Results of climate change impact assessment

Table 3 below summarizes the valuation of external effects of climate change,

expressed in monetary units of maximum, minimum and mean annual willingness to

pay, members of the focus group (experts) as assessed using the hypothetical or

dependent valuation, including the respective standard deviations. It is worth noticing

that in almost all impacts the minimum value is zero while the maximum ranged from

22 to 71 euros. In all cases, both the minimum and maximum value, determined on

the basis of standard deviation. Specifically, the maximum values were estimated as

the sum of the average values and respective standard deviations, and minimum

values as differences of average values and the corresponding standard deviations (in

each case the minimum values must be greater than or equal to zero). Thus it is

considered to achieve more representative evaluation since extreme values are

avoided and the likelihood of too positive or too negative valuation willingness to pay

is limited.

However, a higher value has the following table 4 which includes the

reduction of the average values of each effect in both the agricultural community and

the total population (agricultural and non agricultural) of the research area. The final

sum of the impacts in this table represents the total cost of climate change which

amounts to € 71.84 million for the agricultural population and € 240.73 million for the

total population. Finally, Chart 1 depicts schematically the hierarchy of effects on the

basis of their mean value presenting also the relative standard deviations. It is worth

noting that the most significant impact refers to the increasing of CO2 amount in the

atmosphere and the burden of biodiversity and ecosystems, while a less significant

impact is considered the variability of productivity and diversification of agricultural

production and agricultural products trade.

9

Table 3 – Maximum, mean and minimum values based on standard deviation (euros)

Maximum value Mean Value Minimum Value Standard Dev iation

1. Increasing of CO2 concentration 71,17 33,16 0,00 38,01

2. Warming 54,82 24,21 0,00 30,61

3. Variation in rainfall 44,66 17,47 0,00 27,19

4. Increased frequency of extreme weather events 49,14 23,89 0,00 36,30

5. Increased occurrence of diseases and pests 55,00 24,21 0,00 30,79

6. Intensity of competition in water use in agriculture 49,14 23,89 0,00 25,24

7. Diversification of agricultural production and agricultural trade 23,07 8,47 0,00 14,60

8. Increased spending on tackling the cost of irrigation water, appropriate propagation material, special fertilizers and damage from extreme weather phenomena

48,32 21,05 0,00 27,26

9. Burden on the environment, ecosystems and of biodiversity (loss of native species) 60,55 30,00 0,00 30,55

10. Reduction of farm income 40,36 15,79 0,00 24,57

11. Increase in price of agricultural products 44,30 18,42 0,00 25,88

12. Change in productivity and yields 22,24 8,95 0,00 13,29

13. Burden of soil fertility and erosion 48,72 21,05 0,00 27,67

14. Increased fire incidents 59,68 29,15 1,38 29,15

Estimation based to standard deviation Maximum value = Mean value + standard deviation Minimum value = Mean value – standard deviation (Minimum value ≥ 0)

10

Table 4 – Estimation of climate change impacts (in euros)

Willingness to Pay Maximum value

Mean value

REDUCTION TO THE AGRICULTURAL POPULATION

REDUCTION TO THE TOTAL POPULATION

1. Increasing of CO2 concentration 71,17 33,16 7.948.452,00 26.634.112,00 2. Warming 54,82 24,21 5.803.137,00 19.445.472,00 3. Variation in rainfall 44,66 17,47 4.187.559,00 14.031.904,00

4. Increased frequency of extreme weather events

49,14 23,89 5.726.433,00 19.188.448,00

5. Increased occurrence of diseases and pests

55 24,21 5.803.137,00 19.445.472,00

6. Intensity of competition in water use in agriculture

49,14 23,89 5.726.433,00 19.188.448,00

7. Diversification of agricultural production and agricultural trade

23,07 8,47 2.030.259,00 6.803.104,00

8. Increased spending on tackling the cost of irrigation water, appropriate propagation material, special fertilizers and damage from extreme weather phenomena

48,32 21,05 5.045.685,00 16.907.360,00

9. Burden on the environment, ecosystems and of biodiversity (loss of native species)

60,55 30,00 7.191.000,00 24.096.000,00

10. Reduction of farm income 40,36 15,79 3.784.863,00 12.682.528,00 11. Increase in price of agricultural

products 44,3 18,42 4.415.274,00 14.794.944,00

12. Change in productivity and yields 22,24 8,95 2.145.315,00 7.188.640,00

13. Burden of soil fertility and erosion 48,72 21,05 5.045.685,00 16.907.360,00

14. Increased fire incidents 59,68 29,15 6.987.255,00 23.413.280,00

TOTAL 71.840.487,00 € 240.727.072,00 €

11

33,1

630,5

330,0

0

24,2

124,2

123,8

922,1

121,0

521,0

518,4

217,4

715,7

9

8,9

58,4

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

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g of

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2 co

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12

Bibliography

Greek literature:

Arampatzis, G. Michailidis, A. and Kamenidou, E. (2002). Estimation of willingness

to pay of Visitors of the ski resort Kaimaktsalan Voras: A method Hypothetical Assessment.

Fri 7th-nellinio Conference of Agricultural Economics, Athens, 21-23 November.

Vakrou, A., Dimara, T. and Skouras, D. (1996). Economic Evaluation of Re-soul in

Ski camp. Proceedings 4th National Conference of Agricultural Economics, edition: Ziti,

Thessaloniki, 28-30 November, p. 477-488.

Daoutopoulos, G. (2000). Methodology of Social Research. Even Publications, Third

Edition, Thessaloniki.

Javeau, C. (1996). The Research Questionnaire: A Manual of good researchers.

Editor-in Greek Yield: Tzannone-Georges, Publisher: Typothito - G. Dardanus, Athens.

Karameros, A. (1987). Anapsychiaki Value and Use of peri-urban forests in

Thessaloniki. Geotechnical: 4, p. 95-101.

Karameros, A. (1996). Sociology. Academic Traditions, Thessaloniki.

Kyriazis, N. (1998). The Sociological Research and the Social Construction of

Reality: The Case of the Quantitative Approach. Editor-ears I Papageorgiou, Publisher:

Typothito - George Dardanus, Athens.

Mergos, G. (2002). Social Investment Appraisal. University tradition-is, Department

of Economics, Publisher University of Athens, Athens.

Michaelides, A. (2004). Socioeconomic Assessment of Large Infrastructure Projects in

Conditions of Uncertainty: The Case of Irrigation Dam "Stone-yes" Halkidiki. Doctoral

Thesis. University Thessalo-lonikis, Thessaloniki.

Stathakopoulos, B. (1997). Marketing Research Methods. A. Stamoulis Publications,

Athens.

Foreign language literature:

Clawson, M. (1959). Methods of Measuring the Demand for and the Value of Outdoor

Recreation. Reprint 10, Washington, DC: Resources for the future.

Clawson, M. and Knetsch, J. L. (1966). Economics of Outdoor Recreation. John

Hopkins Press, Baltimore and London.

13

Cline W.R. (2007) Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country Pe-

terson Institute.

Duncan E. (2009) A special report on climate change and the carbon economy, The

Economist, London, UK.

Easterling W., Aggarwal P., Batima P., Brander K., Erda L., Howden M., Kirilenko

A., Morton J., Soussana J., Schmidhuber J. (2007) Climate Change 2007: Im-pacts,

Adaptation and Vulnerability. Eds ML Parry, OF Canziani, JP Palutikof, PJ van der Linden

and CE Hanson. :273-313.

Kealy, M. J. and Turner, R. W. (1993). A Test of the Equality of Closed-Ended and

Open-Ended Contingent Valuations. American Journal of Agricultural Eco-nomics, 75 (May):

pp, 321-331.

Mitchell, R. C. and Carson, R. T. (1989). Using Surveys to Value Public Goods: The

Contingent Valuation Method. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the future.

Oppenheim, A. (1992). Questionnaire Design, Interviewing and Attitude

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Vakrou, A. (1993). A Study on the Economic Valuation and Management of

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Register, 44 (243): pp. 72892-72976.

14

APPENDIX 4 CONTINGENT VALUATION QUESTIONNAIRE

ΕΡΩΤΗΜΑΤΟΛΟΓΙΟ ΕΠΙΠΤΩΣΕΩΝ ΑΠΟ ΤΗΝ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΙΚΗ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ

3 Η συλλογή των πληροφοριών γίνεται στα πλαίσια µελέτης που ανέλαβε να ετοιµάσει το Ινστιτούτο Γεωργικών Ερευνών για το κόστος της κλιµατικής αλλαγής στην κυπριακή γεωργία. ΣΚΟΠΟΣ του ερωτηµατολογίου είναι να καταγράψουµε πώς αντιλαµβάνεστε τις επιπτώσεις από την κλιµατική αλλαγή και να τις αποτιµήσουµε σε χρηµατικές µονάδες. Ο χρόνος που απαιτείται για τη συµπλήρωση του ερωτηµατολογίου είναι περίπου 20 λεπτά. Παρακαλώ συµπληρώστε ηλεκτρονικά το ερωτηµατολόγιο και αποστείλετέ το στη διεύθυνση: m.markou@arinet.ari.gov.cy ΤΜΗΜΑ ΠΡΩΤΟ: ∆ΙΕΡΕΥΝΗΣΗ ΠΡΟΘΥΜΙΑΣ ΠΛΗΡΩΜΗΣ Το παράδειγµα που ακολουθεί έχει γίνει µόνο για τους σκοπούς της παρούσας έρευνας και σε καµία περίπτωση δεν αντιπροσωπεύει µια πραγµατική κατάσταση. Η συµβολή και η βοήθειά σας είναι σηµαντική. Παρακαλώ διαβάστε µε προσοχή πριν απαντήσετε στις ερωτήσεις. Κατανόηση του σεναρίου. Τα τελευταία χρόνια παρατηρείται σταδιακά µία συνεχής διαδικασία κλιµατικής αλλαγής. Αυτή η διαδικασία δεν εµφανίστηκε ξαφνικά και ούτε έχει ολοκληρωθεί µέχρι σήµερα. Εποµένως, έχετε ήδη αποκτήσει σχετική εµπειρία του φαινοµένου και ταυτόχρονα γνωρίζετε ότι είναι ένα συνεχές φαινόµενο, µε ιδιαίτερα αργό ρυθµό, και πιθανότατα έχει αυξανόµενη ένταση. Στα πλαίσια της κλιµατικής αυτής αλλαγής αναµένονται οι εξής επιπτώσεις στις γεωργικές δραστηριότητες:

• Αύξηση της συγκέντρωσης CO2 στην ατµόσφαιρα

• Αύξηση της θερµοκρασίας • ∆ιακύµανση των βροχοπτώσεων • Αύξηση της συχνότητας ακραίων καιρικών φαινοµένων • Αύξηση περιστατικών ασθενειών και παρασίτων • Ένταση του ανταγωνισµού χρήσης νερού στη γεωργία

• ∆ιαφοροποίηση της γεωργικής παραγωγής και του εµπορίου γεωργικών προϊόντων • Αύξηση των δαπανών για την αντιµετώπιση του κόστους του νερού άρδευσης, των κατάλληλων υλικών πολλαπλασιασµού, των ειδικών λιπασµάτων και ζηµιών από τα ακραία καιρικά φαινόµενα

• Επιβάρυνση του περιβάλλοντος, των οικοσυστηµάτων και της βιοποικιλότητας (απώλεια αυτοχθόνων ειδών)

• Μείωση του γεωργικούς εισοδήµατος • Αύξηση της τιµής των γεωργικών προϊόντων • Αυξοµείωση της παραγωγικότητας και των αποδόσεων • Επιβάρυνση της γονιµότητας των εδαφών και διάβρωση

• Αύξηση φαινοµένων πυρκαγιών ΜΕΘΟ∆ΟΣ ∆ΙΧΟΤΟΜΗΜΕΝΗΣ ΕΠΙΛΟΓΗΣ Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε για την αποφυγή των αναµενόµενων επιπτώσεων της κλιµατικής αλλαγής στις επί µέρους γεωργικές δραστηριότητες (ερωτήσεις 1,3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25 και 27). Αν επιλέξετε να µην πληρώσετε καθόλου χρήµατα για την αποφυγή µίας επίπτωσης τότε σηµαίνει ότι δε θεωρείτε τη συγκεκριµένη επίπτωση ως σηµαντική (ερωτήσεις 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26 και 28).

3 Το ερωτηματολόγιο ετοιμάστηκε από τον Τομέα Αγροτική Οικονομίας του Αριστοτέλειου Πανεπιστημίου

Θεσσαλονίκης

15

Ε.1: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αύξησης της συγκέντρωσης CO2 στην ατµόσφαιρα.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος 10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο. Ε.2: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 2

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.3: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αύξησης της θερµοκρασίας.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος 10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο.

Κωδικός [ ] 1

Κωδικός [ ] 3

16

Ε.4: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 4

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.5: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης διακύµανσης των βροχοπτώσεων.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος 10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο. Ε.6: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 6

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.7: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αύξησης της συχνότητας των ακραίων καιρικών φαινοµένων.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος 10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο.

Κωδικός [ ] 5

Κωδικός [ ] 7

17

Ε.8: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 8

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.9: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αύξησης των περιστατικών ασθενειών και παρασίτων.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος 10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο. Ε.10: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 10

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.11: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αύξησης της έντασης του ανταγωνισµού της χρήσης νερού στη γεωργία.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος 10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο.

Κωδικός [ ] 9

Κωδικός [ ] 11

18

Ε.12: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 12

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.13: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης διαφοροποίησης της γεωργικής παραγωγής και του εµπορίου των αγροτικών προϊόντων.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος 10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο. Ε.14: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 14

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.15: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αύξησης των δαπανών για την αντιµετώπιση του κόστους του νερού άρδευσης, των κατάλληλων υλικών πολλαπλασιασµού, των ειδικών λιπασµάτων και ζηµιών από τα ακραία καιρικά φαινόµενα.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος 10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο.

Κωδικός [ ] 13

Κωδικός [ ] 15

19

Ε.16: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 16

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.17: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης επιβάρυνσης του περιβάλλοντος, των οικοσυστηµάτων και της βιοποικιλότητας (απώλεια αυτοχθόνων ειδών).

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο. Ε.18: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 18

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.19: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης µείωσης του γεωργικού εισοδήµατος.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο.

Κωδικός [ ] 17

Κωδικός [ ] 19

20

Ε.20: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 20

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.21: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αύξησης της τιµής των γεωργικών προϊόντων.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο. Ε.22: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 22

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.23: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αυξοµείωσης της παραγωγικότητας και των αποδόσεων.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο.

Κωδικός [ ] 21

Κωδικός [ ] 23

21

Ε.24: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 24

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.25: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης επιβάρυνσης της γονιµότητας των εδαφών και διάβρωσης.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο. Ε.26: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 26

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

Ε.27: Προσδιορίστε πόσο είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε ετησίως (σε ΕΥΡΩ) για την αποφυγή της αναµενόµενης αύξησης των φαινοµένων πυρκαγιών.

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

Ποσό σε ευρώ/έτος

10 60 20 70 30 80 40 90 50 100

Αν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε περισσότερο από 100 ευρώ ετησίως ή κάποιο ποσό που δεν υπάρχει παραπάνω, σηµειώστε το στο παρακάτω πλαίσιο.

Κωδικός [ ] 25

Κωδικός [ ] 27

22

Ε.28: Εάν δεν είστε διατεθειµένοι να πληρώσετε καθόλου εξηγείστε τους βασικούς λόγους για αυτή σας την απόφαση.

Χαµηλό εισόδηµα [1] Κωδικός [ ] 28

∆εν θεωρώ ότι υπάρχει τέτοια επίπτωση [2]

∆εν πιστεύω ότι µπορεί να αποφευχθεί αυτή η επίπτωση [3]

Άλλη αιτία (ποια;) [4]

∆εν απαντώ [5]

ΤΜΗΜΑ ∆ΕΥΤΕΡΟ: ΓΕΝΙΚΕΣ ΠΛΗΡΟΦΟΡΙΕΣ - ΠΡΟΣΩΠΙΚΑ ΣΤΟΙΧΕΙΑ Ε.29: Φύλο Άρρεν [1] Θήλυ [2] Κωδικός [ ] 29

Ε.30: Ποια η είναι ηλικία σας; Έως 20

[1] 41-50

[4]

21-30

[2] 51-60

[5]

31-40

[3] 61 και άνω

[6]

Ε.31: Ποια είναι η οικογενειακή σας κατάσταση; Άγαµος / η [1] Έγγαµος / η [2] Κωδικός [ ]

31 Ε.32: Ποιο είναι το κύριο επάγγελµά σας; ................................................................................................................................... Ε.33: Πόσα είναι τα µέλη στο νοικοκυριό σας;

Ενήλικες ....... Ανήλικοι ....... Κωδικός [ ] 33α [ ] 33β

Ε.34: Ποια είναι η περιοχή µόνιµης διαµονής σας; Περιοχή …………………………………………….....

Κωδικός [ ] 34

Ε.35: Ποιο είναι το επίπεδο µόρφωσής σας; Απολυτήριο δηµοτικού [1] Ανώτερη εκπαίδευση [5] Κωδικός [ ]

35

Απολυτήριο Γυµνασίου [2] Ανώτατη εκπαίδευση [6]

Απολυτήριο Λυκείου [3] Μεταπτυχιακές σπουδές [7]

Τεχνική εκπαίδευση [4] ∆ιδακτορικές σπουδές [8]

Κωδικός [ ] 30

Κωδικός [ ] 32

23

Ε.36: Ποιο είναι το ύψος του καθαρού µηνιαίου εισοδήµατος (σε ευρώ) όλων των εργαζοµένων του νοικοκυριού σας; Κατώτατο (<€1000) [1] Υψηλό (€3001-4000) [4] Κωδικός [ ]

36

Χαµηλό (€1001-2000) [2] Ανώτατο (>€4000) [5]

Μέσο (€2001-3000) [3] [9]

Ε.37: Ποιο είναι το ύψος του δικού σας καθαρού µηνιαίου εισοδήµατος (σε ευρώ); Κατώτατο (<€1000) [1] Υψηλό (€3001-4000) [4] Κωδικός [ ]

37

Χαµηλό (€1001-2000) [2] Ανώτατο (>€4000) [5]

Μέσο (€2001-3000) [3] [9]

Ευχαριστούµε για τη συνεργασία σας

1

Appendix 5

Table 1. Average Annual Precipitation in mm of rain (normal precipitation 1961-1990 503 mm)

Year Precipitation

in mm

% of normal precipitation

Year

Precipitation in mm

% of normal precipitation

1960-61 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85

469 656 636 309 532 519 694 499 800 398 498 408 213 389 619 563 471 549 439 582 574 425 437 448 498

93 130 126 61 106 103 138 99 159 79 99 81 42 77 123 112 94 109 87 116 114 84 87 89 99

1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09

438 520 625 481 363 282 637 509 417 493 383 399 388 473 363 468 604 561 545 412 360 479 272 527

87 103 124 96 72 56 127 101 83 98 76 79 77 94 72 93 120 112 108 82 71 95 54 105

Source: Cyprus Meteorological Service, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment.

2

Table 2. Annual average air temperature in ° C

Source: Cyprus Meteorological Service, Ministry of Agriculture, Natural Resources and Environment

Year Temperature Year Temperature 1901 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981

19,7 18,4 18,0 19,3 19,2 18,9 20,2 19,3 20,1 20,0 18,7 18,6 19,5 18,4 19,5 19,4 19,6 19,1 19,1 19,6 19,3 19,5 19,0 19,8 19,8 20,2 19,4 19,9

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

19,1 19,0 19,6 19,8 19,8 19,5 19,8 19,9 20,0 19,8 18,8 19,7 20,6 19,9 20,2 19,7 20,9 21,0 20,5 21,0 20,5 20,4 20,4 19,4 19,7 20,1 20,5 20,2