asean energy - crude – summer burn
TRANSCRIPT
June 21, 2021
Energ
y
Regio
nal
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK KIM ENG RESEARCH
SEE PAGE 10 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
ASEAN Energy
Crude – summer burn
Raise crude oil price estimate to USD65/bbl
Crude oil price (dated Brent) recently reached a new high of USD74/bbl
(16 June 2021), averaging USD64/bbl YTD, on improving demand
(economic recovery, higher vaccination rollouts) and tighter supply (OPEC+
policy, under-investment). This has led us to raise our in-house crude oil
price estimate (dated Brent) to USD65/bbl for 2021 (vs. USD55-60/bbl
previously; in line with EIA) and USD64/bbl (vs. EIA’s USD62/bbl) for 2022.
Our view reflects oil price trending lower HoH in 2H21, premised on
increased output from OPEC+ and potentially the lifting of sanctions
against Iran. Our key BUYs are Yinson, Dialog and Wah Seong for MY and
PTTEP, PTTGC, and IVL for TH.
Structural underinvestment risks imbalance
Crude will remain crucial during the energy transition as it will take years
to shift global transport fleets to EV. Key energy sectors such as aviation,
shipping and petrochemicals will continue to rely on oil for some time. In
its base case, IEA estimates demand to rise to 106mbpd by 2026 vs
100mbpd (pre-Covid), accommodated by Saudi Arabia reviving its shut-in
capacity. Not everyone shares this view. Trading houses Trafigura and
Vitol warn oil reserves have come down from 15 years to 10 years and
higher crude prices (USD100/bbl) will be needed to incentivize
investments. O&G capex peaked at USD800b in 2014 and has steadily
declined since then. Rystad Energy estimates a 29% reduction in capex for
2020/21 (USD145b/USD140b) from its initial estimates.
What is the sweet spot for crude?
With US producers still leaning towards caution, Saudi Arabia and Russia
are in the drivers’ seat. OPEC+, effectively the central bank of oil will look
to continue to push its key goal of stability and sustainability in the oil
market. We believe OPEC+ will be wary of letting crude prices run
unchecked as it risks 1) acceleration of investments in alternatives 2)
energy crisis which can derail economic growth and reduce demand for
oil. In our view, a USD65-75/bbl range is the sweet spot. Extreme price
deviations will be driven back to this range. It is important to note that
the oil market is slightly artificial as OPEC+ has c.5.5mbpd to bring back
to market by Apr2022. This could be brought forward if needed. OPEC will
closely monitor Iran talks and US crude production. EIA revised up FY21 US
production estimate by 60kbpd to 11.08mbpd. USD rig counts have risen
to 461, +100 YTD, but still well below 792 pre-Covid.
Analysts
Kaushal Ladha, CFA Thailand, O&G and Petrochemicals Thong Jung Liaw Malaysia, O&G Chuyen Le Nguyen Nhat Vietnam, O&G Trading ideas for the week
Company Ticker Sentiment Earnings Impact
Theme - Surge in crude prices on summer demand and tight supply
PTTEP PTTEP TB Very Positive 30% portfolio
PTTGC PTTGC TB Neutral/Positive Gas feedstock. In current scenario, PE is delinked with crude due to fundamentals
Petronas Chem PCHEM MK Neutral/Positive
High Conviction Picks
Dialog Group DLG MK Resilient business model
Yinson YNS MK Orderbook visibility
Gasoline to lead summer demand surge
Source: S&P Global Platts
Rystad estimates 29% drop in 2020/21 upstream O&G investments from prior estimates
Source: Rystad Energy
Major O&G and petrochemical prices (Closing as of 17 June 2021)
Change
Bloomberg Ticker Units Last price 1W 2W 3W
Crude Oil (Brent) COA COMDTY USD/bbl. 74.16 2% 2% 3%
Crude Oil (WTI) CLA COMDTY USD/bbl. 71.91 2% 2% 3%
Dubai Fateh Spot PGCRDUBA Index USD/bbl. 72.03 3% 2% 4%
Tapis APCRTAPI Index USD/bbl. 74.53 2% 1% 5%
NYMEX Henry Hub NGA COMDTY USD/MMBtu 3.25 3% 4% 3%
LNG Northeast Asia CFR JKL1 Index USD/MMBtu 11.63 7% 3% 2%
Singapore GRM N/A USD/bbl. 1.94 -0.1 -0.3 +0.1
Gasoline – Dubai N/A USD/bbl. 8.30 +0.2 -1.7 +0.6
Diesel – Dubai N/A USD/bbl. 5.42 +0.1 -0.4 -0.4
Jet Fuel – Dubai N/A USD/bbl. 4.53 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5
HDPE – Naphtha N/A USD/t. 425 -7% -9% -9%
PP – Naphtha N/A USD/t. 556 -3% -6% -5%
PX – Condensate N/A USD/t. 261 6% -7% -8%
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
June 21, 2021 2
ASEAN Energy
Countries in Focus
Malaysia
Yinson is advancing into the electric mobility (e-mobility) space (a
megatrend) via investments in these start-ups (Moovita and Oyika).
(i) Moovita specializes in designing and deploying road worthy
autonomous vehicles in urban cities worldwide.
(ii) Oyika offers Yinson entry into the 2-wheeler (e2Ws) electric
vehicle segment in SEA via its affordable, app-based solution
and battery-swap infrastructure.
These investments fit into its green energy, decarbonization and low
carbon mobility/ electrification agenda.
Thailand
Thailand energy sector rose 1.1% WoW, outperforming the SET Index by 1%.
As we had hinted last week, the surge in the sector may incentivize profit
taking and we could see sector rotation. The pickup in crude prices is
positive for the sector overall. The direct beneficiaries with immediate
impact to earnings are PTTEP and PTTGC.
PTTEP – 30% of its portfolio is liquid based (crude+ condensates). Every
USD1/bbl increase in Dubai raises PTTEP core profitability by THB518m or
2.3% of 2020E core profit. PTTEP’s stock price is highly correlated with
crude prices; nevertheless 70% of its gas portfolio will see weaker gas
prices in 2H20.
PTTGC – Higher crude prices will lead to margin expansion of its olefin
business as chemical prices are linked to crude while PTTGC has a gas
feedstock (rest of Thai chemicals use naphtha), which lags crude prices.
Olefin segment accounts for roughly 50% of its 2020E EBITDA.
Vietnam
PetroVietnam reported an impressive earnings turnaround in 5M21 (+200%
YoY), on the back of higher oil price. Subsequently, this led to higher
offshore activities; namely well development at: (i) White Lion Phase 2
(Block 15-1), (ii) Dai Hung Phase 3 (Block 05-1A), (iii) Ca Tam (Block 09-
3/12) and (iv) Kinh Ngu Trang (Block 09/2-09). That said, major gas
projects like Block B and Blue Whale are still facing bottleneck issues.
Meanwhile, PetroVienam Technical Services (PVS) is progressively
prospecting for renewable sector opportunities. It recently secured an EPC
contract for a floating barge for Enterprize Energy’s offshore 3.4GW wind
turbine project. Recall that PVS signed a memorandum to participate in a
consortium to develop a La Gan 3.5GW wind turbine project in Feb 2021.
Sector & Country performance
Source: MKE, Bloomberg
11.0%
1.9%
1.1%
5.3%
0.0%
-1.0%
0%
2%
-1%
-1%
0%
-1.8%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
Vietnam Energy
Malaysia Energy
Thailand Energy
VNINDEX Index
SET Index
FBMKLCI Index
MoM WoW
June 21, 2021 3
ASEAN Energy
Regional Energy Coverage
ASEAN Energy - Peer Valuation
Stock Bloomberg Mkt cap Rating Price TP Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) Div yld (%)
code (USD'm) (LC) (LC) (%) 21E 22E 21E 22E 21E 22E
PTT PTT TB 37,800 Buy 41.25 53.00 28 11.0 8.8 1.2 1.1 5.4 6.8
Petronas Chem. PCHEM MK 15,757 Hold 8.11 8.25 5 17.2 19.8 2.0 1.9 2.9 2.5
PTT E&P PTTEP TB 15,411 Buy 121.00 148.00 22 13.1 11.4 1.3 1.2 3.8 4.4
PTTGC PTTGC TB 8,715 Buy 60.25 85.00 41 11.4 13.4 0.9 0.9 3.8 4.6
IVL IVL TB 7,836 Buy 43.50 56.00 29 14.5 14.4 1.8 1.6 2.1 2.1
PetroVietnam Gas GAS VN 7,665 Hold 91,900.00 73,900.00 (14) 20.2 18.4 3.5 3.4 4.4 4.8
Dialog Group DLG MK 4,113 Buy 3.00 4.90 63 28.9 25.8 3.7 3.4 1.0 1.2
Thai Oil TOP TB 3,796 Hold 58.00 58.00 0 27.4 19.7 1.0 1.0 2.6 5.2
IRPC IRPC TB 2,649 Buy 4.04 4.70 16 17.8 16.6 1.1 1.0 3.2 3.5
Lotte Chemical TTNP MK 1,733 Hold 3.14 3.10 (0) 9.2 19.9 0.6 0.6 5.2 2.4
Star Petroleum SPRC TB 1,461 Hold 10.50 8.80 (16) 26.5 14.9 1.7 1.6 1.9 3.9
Yinson Holdings YNS MK 1,327 Buy 5.00 6.65 33 11.8 9.5 3.0 2.3 1.2 1.2
PVS PVS VN 753 Hold 29,300.00 14,500.00 (51) 21.2 29.6 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.4
Bumi Armada BAB MK 702 Buy 0.49 0.52 6 5.8 5.5 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0
Sapura Energy SAPE MK 524 Sell 0.14 0.10 (26) nm nm 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
PetroVietnam Drilling PVD VN 420 Hold 22,900.00 11,200.00 (51) nm 115.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0
Velesto Energy VEB MK 309 Buy 0.16 0.23 48 nm nm 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
MMHE MMHE MK 198 Buy 0.51 0.85 67 284.6 10.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
Wah Seong WSC MK 151 Buy 0.80 1.20 50 14.6 6.8 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0
Favelle Favco FFB MK 119 Hold 2.19 2.40 10 10.5 8.2 0.6 0.6 5.0 6.9
Icon Offshore ICON MK 72 Buy 0.11 0.16 45 8.7 5.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
Sources: Bloomberg, MKE
Vietnam Energy index surged 5% WoW
S o
Source: Bloomberg, MKE
Note: Energy sector performance by country (Mkt weighted by coverage)
Integrated players led the complex, rising 3% WoW
Source: Bloomberg, MKE
Note: Market weighted performance by subsector (Asia-Pacific)
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
Jan
-20
Ma
r-20
Ma
y-2
0
Jul-
20
Sep
-20
No
v-2
0
Jan
-21
Ma
r-21
Ma
y-2
1
Thai Energy Vietnam Energy Malaysia Energy
Index
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Ma
r-20
Ap
r-2
0
Ma
y-2
0
Jun
-20
Jul-
20
Au
g-2
0
Sep
-20
Oct
-20
No
v-2
0
De
c-20
Jan
-21
Feb
-21
Ma
r-21
Ap
r-2
1
Ma
y-2
1
Jun
-21
E&P Services Integrated Refining Chemical
Index
June 21, 2021 4
ASEAN Energy
Best plays in the sector
Links attached to latest reports
Yinson Holdings: Accelerates e-mobility adoption via Oyika
We are positive on Yinson’s investment in Oyika (e-2 wheeler battery swap system; a potential unicorn). Its business model is proven, scalable, and affordable to the price-sensitive masses (cheaper vs. the ICE-2Ws) and is financially rewarding. Oyika fits into the low carbon mobility/ electrification agenda in SEA and Yinson’s green energy investment. Our TP is SOP-based.
Yinson Holdings: A step into e-mobility with Moovita
Its investment in MooVita, an autonomous vehicle start-up, is relatively small. Having SMRT Ventures participating in this venture too offers credibility to the deal. This marks its maiden foray into the e-mobility space, which we posit has much to offer over the next decade. We do not rule out further investment in this area as it accelerates its energy transition agenda.
Wah Seong: Secures BW Energy’s works worth MYR163m
We remain positive on WSC’s improving job win prospects (MYR162m). With a robust outlook for job tenders, WSC is poised to grasp the opportunities ahead. Valuations are still undemanding (6-8x FY22-23 PER), for the market has yet to fully embrace the strength of the earnings turnaround outlook, especially for its Qatari and Malaysia prospects, which would feature prominently from FY22. Our TP is based on 10x FY22 PER (unchanged; mean valuations).
TH Oil & Gas: Stellar 1Q21 results
1Q21 aggregate sector earnings came in at THB71b, +113% QoQ, flipping to positive YoY led by the petchem space. We raised aggregate sector FY21E earnings by 21%. Bulk of our adjustments are in the petchem names as we raise spread assumptions. We expect 2Q21 core earnings will continue to show strong momentum. Maintain POSITIVE view on sector. Cyclical tailwind and elevated crude prices will remain supportive. Our Top Picks are PTTEP, PTTGC and IVL on crude leverage and solid volume growth.
PTTEP: 1Q21 core operations solid
PTTEP’s 1Q21 core profit came in at THB8.9b, +68% QoQ, -3% YoY on the back of 1) 10% rise in ASP 2) solid volume of 382KBOED and 3) lower unit cost of US27.96/BOE. Management guided 2Q21 volumes will rise 9% QoQ, 27% YoY to 416KBOED. Improving volumes and upside risk on crude will see PTTEP deliver sequential earnings growth. Key risk is the 3rd wave of Covid19 which could reduce economic growth and pressure nomination. Maintain BUY. TP unchanged at THB148 pegged to 16x 21E P/E, +0.5SD of 10-yr.
PTTGC: Strong momentum to continue into 2Q21
1Q21 NPAT came in at THB9.7b, 46% QoQ, turning positive YoY. Results were in
line with our estimates. 1Q21 Adjusted EBITDA surged +48% QoQ, +122% YoY to
THB14b led by Olefins and Performance Chemical. We remain constructive on
chemical outlook. Spreads will ease somewhat in 2H21 but remain overall healthy.
We expect GRM recovery to drive earnings in 2H21. We raise FY21EPS by 91% to
reflect higher chemical spread assumptions. Maintain BUY, raise TP from THB75 to
THB85 (1.2x FY21E P/B).
June 21, 2021 5
ASEAN Energy
O&G in charts
Global oil demand
Source: Bloomberg, MKE
Global oil supply
Source: Bloomberg, MKE
OPEC and non-OPEC oil supply (m bpd)
Source: Bloomberg, MKE
Crude oil price (Brent & WTI)
Source: Bloomberg, MKE
Cumulative net oil supply
Source: Bloomberg, MKE
US crude oil inventory (ex-Strategic Petroleum Reserves)
Source: Bloomberg, MKE
(24.5)
(19.5)
(14.5)
(9.5)
(4.5)
0.5
5.5
10.5
15.5
20.5
(10.0)
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
110.0
Apr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct-1
4
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct-1
5
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct-1
6
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct-1
7
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-
18
Oct-1
8
Jan-1
9
Apr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct-1
9
Jan-2
0
Apr-
20
Jul-
20
Oct-2
0
Jan-2
1
Apr-
21
World Crude Oil Consumption (million bbl/day) % YoY
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
(10.0)
10.0
30.0
50.0
70.0
90.0
110.0
Apr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct-1
4
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct-1
5
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct-1
6
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct-1
7
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-
18
Oct-1
8
Jan-1
9
Apr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct-1
9
Jan-2
0
Apr-
20
Jul-
20
Oct-2
0
Jan-2
1
Apr-
21
World Crude Oil Supply (million bbl/day) % YoY
250,000
275,000 300,000
325,000 350,000
375,000
400,000 425,000
450,000
475,000 500,000
525,000
550,000 575,000
600,000
Ap
r-1
0
Au
g-10
Dec-10
Ap
r-1
1
Au
g-11
Dec-11
Ap
r-1
2
Au
g-12
Dec-12
Ap
r-1
3
Au
g-13
Dec-13
Ap
r-1
4
Au
g-14
Dec-14
Ap
r-1
5
Au
g-15
Dec-15
Ap
r-1
6
Au
g-16
Dec-16
Ap
r-1
7
Au
g-17
Dec-17
Ap
r-1
8
Au
g-18
Dec-18
Ap
r-1
9
Au
g-19
Dec-19
Ap
r-2
0
Au
g-20
Dec-20
Ap
r-2
1
(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
(100.0)
(50.0)
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Apr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct-1
4
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct-1
5
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct-1
6
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct-1
7
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-
18
Oct-1
8
Jan-1
9
Apr-
19
Jul-
19
Oct-1
9
Jan-2
0
Apr-
20
Jul-
20
Oct-2
0
Jan-2
1
Apr-
21
Brent % YoY Cummulative Net oil supply (mbpd) RHS
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
25.00
27.00
29.00
31.00
33.00
35.00
37.00
39.00
Jun
-06
Fe
b-0
7
Oct-0
7
Jun
-08
Fe
b-0
9
Oct-0
9
Jun
-10
Fe
b-1
1
Oct-1
1
Jun
-12
Fe
b-1
3
Oct-1
3
Jun
-14
Fe
b-1
5
Oct-1
5
Jun
-16
Fe
b-1
7
Oct-1
7
Jun
-18
Fe
b-1
9
Oct-1
9
Jun
-20
Fe
b-2
1
OPEC NoN-OPEC (RHS)
June 21, 2021 6
ASEAN Energy
Petrochemical in charts
Dubai crude oil price (average)
S o
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, MKE-ISR
Singapore complex GRM (average)
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, MKE-ISR
HDPE-naphtha (average)
So
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, MKE-ISR
PP-naphtha (average)
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, MKE-ISR
Benzene-ULG95 (average)
So
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, MKE-ISR
Parxylene-ULG95 (average)
Source: Companies, Bloomberg, MKE-ISR
109
105
97
51
41 5
3
69
63
42 4
9
32 42
44 60
65
54
59
65
62
67
70
71
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1Q
20
2Q
20
3Q
20
4Q
20
1Q
21
2Q
21
Jan 2
1
Feb 2
1
Mar
21
Apr
21
May 2
1
Jun 2
1
This
week
(USD/bbl)
8.8
7.3
7.1
9.2
7.3
8.2
7.2
5.6
5.2
3.3
1.1
0.9
2.0
2.5
2.8
2.1
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1
2.0
1.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1Q
20
2Q
20
3Q
20
4Q
20
1Q
21
2Q
21
Jan 2
1
Feb 2
1
Mar
21
Apr
21
May 2
1
Jun 2
1
This
week
(USD/bbl)
414 5
58 685
747
744
682
686
468
428
401
485
529
607
577
605
518
499
686
728
502
441
426
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1Q
20
2Q
20
3Q
20
4Q
20
1Q
21
2Q
21
Jan 2
1
Feb 2
1
Mar
21
Apr
21
May 2
1
Jun 2
1
This
week
(USD/t)
453
566
638
618
580
604
621
539
519
499
548
528
670
748
719
685
658 870
856
612
566
556
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1Q
20
2Q
20
3Q
20
4Q
20
1Q
21
2Q
21
Jan 2
1
Feb 2
1
Mar
21
Apr
21
May 2
1
Jun 2
1
This
week
(USD/t)
160
289
268
95 1
62 2
47
143
25
211
127
90
26 1
06 176
307
147
162 219 284 349
288
275
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1Q
20
2Q
20
3Q
20
4Q
20
1Q
21
2Q
21
Jan 2
1
Feb 2
1
Mar
21
Apr
21
May 2
1
Jun 2
1
This
week
(USD/t)
474
487
279
254
316
278 388
284
369
219
214
145
145
190
202
170
182
219
200
217
189
185
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1Q
20
2Q
20
3Q
20
4Q
20
1Q
21
2Q
21
Jan 2
1
Feb 2
1
Mar
21
Apr
21
May 2
1
Jun 2
1
This
week
(USD/t)
June 21, 2021 7
ASEAN Energy
Petrochemical spreads
Sources: Companies, Bloomberg, SET, MKE-ISR *QoQ and MoM changes based on latest data available. SG complex GRM: gasoline 32%, jet 19%, diesel 16%, fuel oil 23%, naphtha 7% and LPG 3%
Refinery (USD/bbl) Int PET
Dubai
(USD/bbl)
Naphtha
(USD/t)
LPG-
Dubai
Gasoline-
DubaiJet-Dubai
Diesel-
Dubai
HSFO-
Dubai
NPH-
DubaiSG GRM
ETH-
NPH
PROP-
NPH
Butadine-
NPH
HDPE-
ETH
HDPE-
NPH
LLDPE-
NPH
LDPE-
NPHPP-NPH
MEG-
0.65ETH
PX-
Condens
BZ-
Condens
PX-
ULG95
BZ-
ULG95
500SN-
HSFO
Phenol-
BZ
BPA -
Phenol(USD/t)
Yearly
2014 96.6 862 (28.1) 14.3 15.9 16.1 (8.3) (4.0) 7.1 506 419 452 179 685 681 717 638 43 386 375 279 268 495 216 268 231
2015 51.1 491 (16.1) 18.3 13.9 13.7 (5.0) 1.7 9.2 578 298 413 169 747 736 765 618 89 397 238 254 95 431 201 270 215
2016 41.4 400 (11.6) 14.9 11.5 10.8 (5.0) 1.7 7.3 669 311 724 74 744 751 790 580 (35) 416 261 316 162 411 180 243 192
2017 53.0 496 (10.8) 14.8 12.1 12.5 (2.3) 0.3 8.2 650 381 1,012 31 682 671 761 604 108 388 357 278 247 498 148 298 207
2018 69.1 615 (22.5) 10.6 15.4 14.7 (2.6) (2.9) 7.2 605 419 799 81 686 534 566 621 128 460 214 388 143 440 346 375 313
2019 63.3 526 (24.9) 9.4 14.0 14.1 (5.0) (6.8) 5.6 327 355 524 141 468 423 472 539 26 358 99 284 25 324 340 276 244
2020 41.9 380 (22.4) 10.1 12.9 13.6 (7.0) (5.4) 5.2 273 346 467 154 428 395 457 519 46 284 126 369 211 332 341 297 245
Quarterly
1Q19 63.3 520 (22.1) 3.9 13.1 12.9 0.6 (7.4) 4.8 478 388 588 82 560 508 531 577 (10) 546 55 517 27 335 508 304 249
2Q19 67.3 545 (26.1) 8.1 12.6 12.9 (2.3) (8.8) 5.1 343 323 426 180 523 467 506 583 (9) 340 55 280 (19) 286 371 351 298
3Q19 61.0 495 (29.1) 11.7 15.8 15.5 (0.0) (7.7) 7.8 316 414 661 152 468 418 478 548 25 290 163 197 56 292 254 191 251
4Q19 61.8 545 (22.4) 13.9 14.7 15.1 (18.3) (3.3) 4.5 169 295 421 150 319 298 373 447 97 255 125 162 30 382 218 260 182
1Q20 49.47 442 (12.0) 6.7 8.5 11.0 (7.4) (1.9) 3.3 265 353 361 137 401 397 471 499 69 252 163 219 127 369 242 388 226
2Q20 32.23 279 (4.4) 2.6 (0.1) 5.7 (1.4) (2.3) 1.1 287 396 54 197 485 472 563 548 46 273 148 214 90 372 356 421 257
3Q20 42.33 396 (12.8) 4.3 (0.7) 4.3 (2.7) 0.2 0.9 374 410 138 155 529 477 618 528 (47) 191 72 145 26 339 221 593 190
4Q20 43.53 404 (7.1) 4.3 2.2 3.6 (0.6) (0.1) 2.0 467 506 733 140 607 572 851 670 (74) 187 150 145 106 466 233 1,127 185
1Q21 59.67 563 (9.9) 6.7 3.4 4.8 (3.4) 0.8 2.5 415 465 351 162 577 575 962 748 23 253 236 190 176 755 208 1,502 222
2Q21 65.04 598 (21.5) 9.8 4.3 5.1 (5.6) (0.7) 2.8 446 466 412 159 605 607 958 719 (32) 280 380 202 307 1,041 267 2,036 241
Monthly
Jan-21 53.9 517 (6.9) 5.0 3.6 4.2 (3.3) 1.8 2.1 463 431 370 55 518 518 910 685 (56) 221 196 170 147 612 180 1,029 182
Feb-21 59.1 554 (8.4) 6.2 3.7 5.2 (3.2) 0.5 2.6 288 406 207 211 499 491 896 658 96 244 224 182 162 760 171 1,503 200
Mar-21 64.8 606 (14.4) 8.8 3.0 4.9 (3.7) 0.4 2.9 477 538 451 209 686 688 1,056 870 27 293 287 219 219 894 274 1,974 285
Apr-21 61.6 569 (18.2) 10.9 2.9 4.3 (4.1) (0.4) 3.2 488 507 413 240 728 728 1,106 856 (30) 295 371 200 284 1,053 266 2,332 275
May-21 66.6 619 (23.1) 10.2 5.4 5.7 (6.0) (0.1) 3.1 387 442 427 115 502 512 822 612 7 291 425 217 349 1,046 271 2,032 233
Jun-21 70.0 639 (23.2) 8.2 4.6 5.4 (6.8) (1.2) 2.0 323 371 491 118 441 456 736 566 29 254 344 189 288 1,025 264 1,745 214
Weekly
05-Apr-21 59.4 576 (15.9) 10.5 1.3 3.3 (4.4) 2.5 2.8 449 514 459 285 734 744 1,124 874 (6) 280 334 187 224 1,053 258 2,085 295
12-Apr-21 60.9 556 (14.8) 11.0 2.5 4.6 (4.5) (1.1) 3.2 479 509 449 275 754 744 1,124 884 (3) 280 346 195 281 1,065 293 2,295 280
19-Apr-21 64.3 582 (19.1) 10.9 3.5 4.8 (4.0) (1.8) 3.3 503 488 363 215 718 708 1,088 838 (30) 305 386 205 267 1,051 243 2,495 256
26-Apr-21 61.7 563 (22.8) 11.3 4.4 4.7 (3.5) (1.1) 3.6 522 517 382 185 707 717 1,087 827 (80) 313 418 214 364 1,042 269 2,453 268
03-May-21 64.0 591 (23.1) 11.1 5.4 5.4 (3.6) (0.5) 3.9 494 459 354 145 639 639 1,009 759 (105) 301 392 230 326 1,042 264 2,178 233
10-May-21 66.4 609 (23.9) 11.0 5.5 5.4 (4.4) (0.9) 3.6 476 451 336 125 601 591 961 691 (85) 313 495 217 347 1,033 190 2,150 224
17-May-21 66.4 604 (22.1) 9.6 5.9 6.0 (5.9) (1.4) 3.0 501 501 351 65 566 566 946 656 (63) 288 486 227 419 1,043 256 2,050 232
24-May-21 65.7 599 (23.3) 9.2 5.4 6.1 (8.1) (1.3) 2.3 446 501 431 105 551 551 911 641 (39) 289 408 215 368 1,058 324 1,925 243
31-May-21 66.6 619 (23.1) 9.8 4.9 5.7 (8.1) (0.1) 2.4 387 442 427 115 502 512 822 612 7 265 345 198 284 1,052 320 1,855 235
07-Jun-21 69.1 635 (23.5) 8.1 4.7 5.3 (6.4) (0.8) 2.1 360 410 450 95 455 465 765 575 28 247 372 193 301 1,026 251 1,725 225
14-Jun-21 70.9 644 (23.0) 8.3 4.5 5.4 (7.1) (1.6) 1.9 286 331 531 140 426 446 706 556 31 261 315 185 275 1,023 277 1,765 203
% chg
WoW chg 2.5 1.3 2.0 3.0 (4.2) 2.5 (10.9) (94.0) (6.8) (20.4) (19.2) 18.1 47.4 (6.3) (4.0) (7.6) (3.2) 8.0 5.7 (15.3) (4.1) (8.7) (0.3) 10.4 2.3 (9.6)
MoM chg 5.1 3.4 (0.5) (19.5) (14.4) (6.3) (12.3) (985.7) (35.2) (16.4) (16.1) 15.0 2.2 (12.1) (10.9) (10.5) (7.5) 335.2 (12.8) (19.2) (13.0) (17.4) (2.0) (2.5) (14.1) (8.2)
QoQ chg 9.0 6.3 (117.3) 46.0 25.5 7.2 (67.4) nm 8.8 7.5 0.2 17.3 (2.0) 4.8 5.7 (0.4) (3.8) nm 10.8 61.1 6.2 74.6 37.9 28.0 35.6 8.2
Feedstock Aromatics (USD/tonne)Lube and others
(USD/tonne) Petrochemical (USD/tonne)
June 21, 2021 8
ASEAN Energy
Asia oil and gas valuations based on Bloomberg
Sources: Bloomberg, MKE
MKE Price Target Mkt Cap 90D T/O
P/E (X) EV/EBITDA (X) RoE % P/B (X) Yield %
Company Ticker Rating 17-June Price USDb USDm 2021
E 2022
E 2021
E 2022
E 2021E 2021E 2021E
Asian E&P CNOOC LTD 883 HK NR 8.9 NR 51.4 137.2 5.4 5.1 2.4 2.2 12.8 0.7 5.3 PTT E&P PTTEP TB Buy 122.0 148.0 15.5 35.5 13.5 11.4 4.1 3.7 9.7 1.3 2.8 INPEX 1605 JT NR 840.0 NR 11.2 69.7 8.6 7.9 4.0 3.6 5.1 0.4 2.9 Petronas Gas PTG MK NR 15.9 NR 7.7 2.5 15.6 15.4 8.6 8.6 15.5 2.4 7.2 PetroVietnam Gas GAS VN Hold 91,900.0 73,900.0 7.6 3.2 17.5 16.3 10.0 8.9 20.2 3.3 3.7 JAPEX 1662 JT NR 2,035.0 NR 1.1 4.4 13.4 N/A 3.3 2.9 1.2 0.3 2.2 Gas Malaysia GMB MK NR 2.8 NR 0.9 0.1 16.2 15.7 9.4 8.9 20.1 3.2 5.1
Asian Oil Services
9.1 8.2 4.1 3.8 12.1 1.1 4.6
Keppel KEP SP NR 5.2 NR 7.1 14.2 14.5 11.3 17.2 15.2 6.1 0.8 2.1 COSL 2883 HK NR 7.1 NR 9.1 19.3 8.8 6.9 9.3 8.3 7.4 0.7 2.6 Dialog DLG MK Buy 3.0 4.9 4.1 3.8 31.5 26.2 29.6 23.7 12.5 3.8 1.4 Yinson YNS MK Buy 5.0 6.7 1.3 1.0 12.3 11.9 8.1 7.6 16.8 1.9 1.2 SembCorp Marine SMM SP NR 0.2 NR 1.9 16.4 N/A N/A 66.9 30.2 -3.6 0.7 0.0 Sapura Energy SAPE MK Sell 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 N/A N/A 17.4 15.0 -2.0 0.3 0.0 Velesto Energy VEB MK Buy 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.8 N/A 51.7 12.0 8.1 -1.5 0.6 0.0 PetroVietnam Technical PVS VN Hold 29,300.0 14,500.0 0.6 12.5 20.9 15.7 10.0 8.8 6.0 1.1 2.6 Bumi Armada BAB MK Buy 0.5 0.2 0.7 4.0 6.1 6.0 7.2 7.3 13.5 0.8 0.0 Anton Oil 3337 HK NR 0.5 NR 0.2 0.4 6.9 5.3 4.3 3.8 7.6 0.5 0.0 MMHE MMHE MK Buy 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.5 N/A 39.2 5.8 4.1 -3.5 0.4 0.0 PetroVietnam Drilling & Well PVD VN Hold 22,900.0 11,200.0 0.4 7.3 45.3 22.6 13.8 9.3 1.5 0.7 0.0 Favelle Favco FFB MK Hold 2.2 2.4 0.1 0.0 10.4 8.1 4.0 3.4 6.2 N/A 4.7 Wah Seong WSC MK Buy 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.2 19.0 9.1 8.9 7.0 4.8 0.8 1.0 Icon Offshore ICON MK Buy 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 8.5 5.2 5.5 4.8 7.7 N/A N/A Alam Maritim AMRB MK NR 0.1 FALSE 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Asian Integrated
13.8 11.8 18.5 14.0 7.2 1.3 1.8
Reliance Industries RIL IB NR 2,223.2 NR 198.5 14.6 32.1 25.1 20.2 14.8 8.5 2.4 0.3 PetroChina - H 857 HK NR 3.6 NR 144.2 59.2 8.1 8.9 4.0 4.0 5.4 0.4 5.5 Sinopec - H 386 HK NR 4.2 NR 83.9 65.3 6.7 6.7 4.0 3.9 8.1 0.5 5.9 PTT PTT TB Buy 41.5 53.0 38.0 72.8 11.9 10.9 6.3 5.9 10.3 1.3 2.6 JX Holding 5020 JT NR 474.0 NR 13.9 84.6 10.7 7.5 7.4 6.6 5.9 0.6 4.6 Bharat Petroleum Oil & Gas BPCL IB NR 483.0 NR 14.3 3.3 10.3 11.6 8.1 8.9 24.7 2.3 2.1
Asian Refineries
18.0 15.2 10.9 8.7 8.1 1.4 3.1
SK Innovation 096770 KS NR 286,000 NR 23.7 230.2 44.4 25.6 N/A 10.2 3.7 1.7 0.5 PTT Global Chemical PCL PTTGC TB Buy 60.8 85.0 8.7 41.4 10.2 12.0 7.6 8.2 10.4 0.9 0.9 Thai Oil PCL TOP TB Hold 58.0 58.0 3.8 21.0 17.3 14.6 11.8 10.8 5.9 1.0 1.3 IRPC PCL IRPC TB Buy 4.1 4.7 2.7 38.7 N/A 18.8 8.4 9.2 8.3 1.0 1.7 Star Petroleum SPRC TB Hold 10.3 8.8 1.4 7.0 15.5 13.7 8.0 7.3 12.0 1.5 0.3 Bangchak Petroleum BCP TB NR 26.3 NR 1.1 4.1 12.6 11.8 9.1 8.7 6.4 0.7 1.0 Petron Corp PCOR PM NR 3.4 NR 0.7 0.2 23.4 10.0 8.2 7.4 2.4 0.8 N/A
Asian Chemicals
29.9 20.3 3.8 9.6 5.9 1.4 0.7
Formosa Petrochemical 6505 TT NR 111.5 NR 38.4 16.6 24.1 24.2 15.2 15.4 12.1 3.1 1.0 Siam Cement Group SCC TB Buy 422.0 560.0 16.2 47.4 11.8 11.7 9.8 9.5 12.9 1.5 3.3 Petronas Chemicals PCHEM MK Hold 8.1 8.3 15.7 6.6 17.4 17.4 9.2 9.0 11.6 2.0 1.4 Indorama Ventures IVL TB Buy 43.3 56.0 7.8 33.0 16.1 14.6 9.9 9.5 10.8 1.8 1.5 Hengyi Petrochemicals 000703 CH NR 12.4 NR 7.2 82.7 8.6 7.7 8.8 8.0 19.6 1.6 3.4 Tongkun Group 601233 CH NR 22.2 NR 8.0 116.9 8.4 7.2 8.3 7.3 19.6 1.6 0.8 Kumho Petrochemicals 011780 KS NR 217,000 NR 5.9 137.2 4.2 5.5 3.0 3.7 40.8 1.5 1.0 Lotte Chemical TTNP MK Hold 3.2 3.1 1.7 6.2 8.5 13.7 1.9 2.5 7.1 0.6 0.7
16.7 16.6 11.0 10.9 14.8 2.2 1.6
June 21, 2021 9
ASEAN Energy
Research Offices
ECONOMICS
Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Malaysia | Philippines | Global (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]
CHUA Hak Bin Regional Thematic Macroeconomist (65) 6231 5830 [email protected]
LEE Ju Ye Singapore | Thailand | Indonesia (65) 6231 5844 [email protected]
Linda LIU Singapore | Vietnam | Cambodia | Myanmar | Laos (65) 6231 5847 [email protected]
Dr Zamros DZULKAFLI (603) 2082 6818 [email protected]
Ramesh LANKANATHAN (603) 2297 8685 [email protected]
FX
Saktiandi SUPAAT Head of FX Research (65) 6320 1379 [email protected]
Christopher WONG (65) 6320 1347 [email protected]
TAN Yanxi (65) 6320 1378 [email protected]
Fiona LIM (65) 6320 1374 [email protected]
STRATEGY
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN
ASEAN (603) 2297 8783 [email protected]
FIXED INCOME
Winson PHOON, ACA (65) 6340 1079 [email protected]
SE THO Mun Yi (603) 2074 7606 [email protected]
REGIONAL EQUITIES
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Regional Equity Research (603) 2297 8783 [email protected]
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of ASEAN Equity Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]
ONG Seng Yeow Research, Technology & Innovation (65) 6231 5839 [email protected]
MALAYSIA
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN Head of Research (603) 2297 8783 [email protected] • Strategy
WONG Chew Hann (603) 2297 8686
[email protected] • Non-Bank Financials (stock exchange) • Construction & Infrastructure
Desmond CH’NG, BFP, FCA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] • Oil & Gas Services- Regional • Automotive
ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] • Plantations - Regional
YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media • Aviation • Non-Bank Financials
TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] • Power • Telcos
WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] • Property
Kevin WONG (603) 2082 6824 [email protected] • REITs • Technology
Jade TAM (603) 2297 8687 [email protected] • Consumer Staples & Discretionary
Fahmi FARID (603) 2297 8676 [email protected] • Software
TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2082 6858 [email protected]
Nik Ihsan RAJA ABDULLAH, MSTA, CFTe (603) 2297 8694 [email protected] • Chartist
Amirah AZMI (603) 2082 8769 [email protected] • Retail Research
INDIA
Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 4223 2632 [email protected] • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
Neerav DALAL (91) 22 4223 2606 [email protected] • Software Technology • Telcos
Vikram RAMALINGAM (91) 22 4223 2607 [email protected] • Automobile • Media
SINGAPORE
Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE Head of Research (65) 6231 5840 [email protected] • Banking & Finance - Regional • Consumer
CHUA Su Tye (65) 6231 5842 [email protected] • REITs - Regional
LAI Gene Lih, CFA (65) 6231 5832 [email protected] • Technology • Healthcare
Kareen CHAN (65) 6231 5926 [email protected] • Transport • Telcos • Consumer
Eric ONG (65) 6231 5924 [email protected] • SMIDs
Matthew SHIM (65) 6231 5929 [email protected]
• Retail Research
PHILIPPINES
Jacqui de JESUS Head of Research (63) 2 8849 8844 [email protected] • Strategy • Conglomerates
Romel LIBO-ON (63) 2 8849 8844 [email protected] • Property • REITs • Telcos
Rachelleen RODRIGUEZ, CFA (63) 2 8849 8843 [email protected] • Banking & Finance • Transport
Benedict CLEMENTE (63) 2 8849 8846 [email protected] • Utilities
VIETNAM
Quan Trong Thanh Head of Research (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8184 [email protected] • Banks
Hoang Huy, CFA (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8181 [email protected] • Strategy • Technology
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8082 [email protected] • Oil & Gas
Nguyen Thi Sony Tra Mi (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8084 [email protected] • Consumer
Tyler Manh Dung Nguyen (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8085 [email protected] • Utilities • Property
Tran Thi Thu Thao (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8180 [email protected] • Industrials
Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen Head of Retail Research (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8081 [email protected] • Retail Research
Nguyen Thanh Lam (84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8086 [email protected] • Technical Analysis
INDONESIA
Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research (62) 21 8066 8680 [email protected] • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement • Autos • Consumer • Utility
Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 8066 8689 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Willy GOUTAMA (62) 21 8066 8500 [email protected] • Consumer
THAILAND
Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Services
Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA
(66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Kaushal LADHA, CFA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392 [email protected] • Oil & Gas – Regional • Petrochemicals - Regional • Utilities
Vanida GEISLER, CPA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 [email protected] • Property • REITs
Yuwanee PROMMAPORN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 Yuwanee.P @maybank-ke.co.th • Services • Healthcare
Ekachai TARAPORNTIP Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 5000 ext 1530 [email protected]
Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1470 [email protected] • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 5000 ext 1430 [email protected] • Food & Beverage • Commerce
Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 5000 ext 1404 [email protected] • Transportation • Small cap
Thanatphat SUKSRICHAVALIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1401 [email protected] • Media • Electronics
Wijit ARAYAPISIT (66) 2658 5000 ext 1450 [email protected] • Strategist
Theerasate PROMPONG (66) 2658 5000 ext 1400 [email protected] • Equity Portfolio Strategist
Apiwat TAVESIRIVATE
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1310
• Chartist and TFEX
June 21, 2021 10
ASEAN Energy
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances af ter the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issue rs of the securities mentioned in this report to the extent permitted by law.
This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report.
Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or i nstitutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limi ted to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.
Thailand Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Due to different characteristics, objectives and strategies of institutional and retail investors, the research products of MBKET Institutional and Retail Research departments may differ in either recommendation or target price, or both. MBKET reserves the rights to disseminate MBKET Retail Research reports to institutional investors who have requested to receive it. If you are an authorised recipient, you hereby tacitly acknowledge that the research reports from MBKET Retail Research are first produced in Thai and there is a time lag in the release of the translated English version.
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. MBKET does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by Thaipat Institute, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Tha ipat Institute made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2), or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of Thaipat Institute that is a third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment resu lt as of the date appearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, MBKET does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.
US This third-party research report is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security mentioned within must do so with: Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc. 400 Park Avenue, 11th Floor, New York, New York 10022, 1-(212) 688-8886 and not with, the issuer of this report.
June 21, 2021 11
ASEAN Energy
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies. Singapore: As of 21 June 2021, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report. Hong Kong: As of 21 June 2021, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report. India: As of 21 June 2021, and at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report, KESI, authoring analyst or their associate / relative does not hold any financial interest or any actual or beneficial ownership in any shares or having any conflict of interest in the subject companies except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.
In the past twelve months KESI and authoring analyst or their associate did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject companies or third party in connection with the research report on any account what so ever except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the in vestment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in th is report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to soph isticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and politic al factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference iss uer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system
BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
HOLD Return is expected to be between 0% to 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
SELL Return is expected to be below 0% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Conduct Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
DISCLOSURES
Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938- H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This report is distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 198700034E) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities (“PTMKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Authority (Indonesia). Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities Limited (License Number: 117/GP-UBCK) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam. Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) (Reg. No. INZ000010538). KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) and as Research Analyst (Reg No: INH000000057) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
June 21, 2021 12
ASEAN Energy
Malaysia Maybank Investment Bank Berhad
(A Participating Organisation of
Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)
33rd Floor, Menara Maybank,
100 Jalan Tun Perak,
50050 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2059 1888;
Fax: (603) 2078 4194
Singapore Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd
Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd
50 North Canal Road
Singapore 059304
Tel: (65) 6336 9090
London Maybank Kim Eng Securities
(London) Ltd
PNB House
77 Queen Victoria Street
London EC4V 4AY, UK
Tel: (44) 20 7332 0221
Fax: (44) 20 7332 0302
New York Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA
Inc
400 Park Avenue, 11th Floor
New York, New York 10022,
U.S.A.
Tel: (212) 688 8886
Fax: (212) 688 3500
Stockbroking Business:
Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank,
No.1, Jalan Maarof
59000 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2297 8888
Fax: (603) 2282 5136
Hong Kong Kim Eng Securities (HK) Ltd
28/F, Lee Garden Three,
1 Sunning Road, Causeway Bay,
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2268 0800
Fax: (852) 2877 0104
Indonesia PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities
Sentral Senayan III, 22nd Floor
Jl. Asia Afrika No. 8
Gelora Bung Karno, Senayan
Jakarta 10270, Indonesia
Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188
Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189
India Kim Eng Securities India Pvt Ltd
1101, 11th floor, A Wing, Kanakia
Wall Street, Chakala, Andheri -
Kurla Road, Andheri East,
Mumbai City - 400 093, India
Tel: (91) 22 6623 2600
Fax: (91) 22 6623 2604
Philippines Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc.
17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza
Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue
Makati City, Philippines 1200
Tel: (63) 2 8849 8888
Fax: (63) 2 8848 5738
Thailand Maybank Kim Eng Securities
(Thailand) Public Company Limited
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
20th - 21st Floor,
Rama 1 Road Pathumwan,
Bangkok 10330, Thailand
Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales)
Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)
Vietnam Maybank Kim Eng Securities Limited
4A-15+16 Floor Vincom Center Dong
Khoi, 72 Le Thanh Ton St. District 1
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Tel : (84) 844 555 888
Fax : (84) 8 38 271 030
Saudi Arabia In association with
Anfaal Capital
Ground Floor, KANOO Building
No.1 - Al-Faisaliyah,Madina Road,
P.O.Box 126575 Jeddah 21352
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Tel: (966) 920023423
South Asia Sales Trading Kevin Foy
Regional Head Sales Trading
Tel: (65) 6636-3620
US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447
North Asia Sales Trading Andrew Lee
Tel: (852) 2268 0283
US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635
Indonesia Iwan Atmadjaja [email protected] (62) 21 8066 8555
London Greg Smith [email protected] Tel: (44) 207-332-0221
New York James Lynch [email protected] Tel: (212) 688 8886
India Sanjay Makhija [email protected] Tel: (91)-22-6623-2629
Philippines Keith Roy [email protected] Tel: (63) 2 848-5288
www.maybank-ke.com | www.maybank-keresearch.com