Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing 305

Editor-in-Chief

Prof. Janusz KacprzykSystems Research InstitutePolish Academy of Sciencesul. Newelska 601-447 WarsawPolandE-mail: kacprzyk@ibspan.waw.pl

For further volumes:http://www.springer.com/series/2941

Aldo G.S. Ventre · Antonio MaturoŠárka Hošková-Mayerová · Janusz KacprzykEditors

Multicriteria andMultiagent DecisionMaking with Applicationsto Economics and SocialSciences

ABC

EditorsAldo G.S. VentreDepartment of Architecture and Industrial

DesignSecond University of NapoliAversaItaly

Antonio MaturoDepartment of Letters, Arts and

Social SciencesUniversity of Chieti-Pescara

“G. d’Annunzio”ChietiItaly

Šárka Hošková-MayerováDepartment of Mathematics and PhysicsUniversity of DefenceBrnoCzech Republic

Janusz KacprzykSystems Research InstitutePolish Academy of SciencesWarsawPoland

ISSN 1434-9922 ISSN 1860-0808 (electronic)ISBN 978-3-642-35634-6 ISBN 978-3-642-35635-3 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-35635-3Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London

Library of Congress Control Number: 2013935340

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Preface

The book provides a comprehensive and timely report on the topic of decision makingand decision analysis in economics and the social sciences. The various contributionsincluded in the book, selected using a peer review process, present important studiesand research conducted in various countries around the globe. The majority of thesestudies are concerned with the analysis, modeling and formalization of the behavior ofgroups or committees that are in charge of making decisions of social and economicimportance. Decisions in these contexts have to meet precise coherence standards andachieve a significant degree of sharing, consensus and acceptance, even in uncertainand fuzzy environments. This necessitates the confluence of several research fields,such as foundations of social choice and decision making, mathematics, complexity,psychology, sociology and economics. The main topics being investigated are:

– scientific and philosophical foundations of social choice and decision together withrelevant aspects of uncertainty in complexity;

– planning, control and use of land and cities– social, economic and financial systems

These topics are comprehensive discussed in the various contributions included in thisbook.

The foundational aspect is the main focus of the work by Patrik Eklund, MarioFedrizzi, and Robert Helgesson (Monadic Social Choice). Here the authors show howmonads and substitutions allow for a separation between social choice, as value, andsocial ‘choosing’ as operation. The key reference lies in a seminal concept of the theoryof fuzzy sets, namely Goguen category Set(L).

Silvia Bortot and Ricardo Alberto Marques Pereira’s work (The Generalized GiniWelfare Function in the Framework of Symmetric Choquet Integration) deals with So-cial Welfare and Choquet integration. It shows that any 2-additive symmetric Choquetintegral can be written as the difference between the arithmetic mean and a multiple ofthe classical Gini inequality index, with a given constraint. In the special case of posi-tive parameter values this result corresponds to the well-known Ben Porath and Gilboaformula for Weymark generalized Gini welfare functions.

VI Preface

The paper by Enrico Ciavolino and Giovanni Indiveri (Entropy Based Estimators inthe Presence of Multicollinearity and Outliers) describes two estimators inspired bythe concept of entropy that allow the authors to robustly cope with multicollinearity, inone case, and with outliers, in the other. The Generalized Maximum Entropy estimatoroptimizes the Shannon’s entropy function subject to consistency and normality con-straints. The Least Entropy-Like estimator is a novel prediction error model coefficientidentification algorithm that minimizes a nonlinear cost function of the fitting residuals.

The role of fuzzy regression in dealing with the causal complexity occurring in so-cial phenomena is studied by Antonio Maturo, Fabrizio Maturo (Research in Social Sci-ences: Fuzzy Regression and Causal Complexity). The authors analyze in details someaspects of the fuzzy regression, and define suitable operations between fuzzy numbers.Finally, they defines some critical remarks about the causal complexity and logical lim-its of the assumption of linear relationship between variables.

Antonio Maturo and Aldo G.S. Ventre (Multiobjective Decision Making, de FinettiPrevision and Fuzzy Prevision) introduce an approach to multiobjective decision mak-ing in the context of finite de Finetti random numbers. The objectives are events, theaction of an alternative with respect to an objective is seen as a finite de Finetti condi-tional random number. The global score of an alternative with respect to an objective,is the de Finetti prevision. Coherence conditions are investigated and criteria for aggre-gating scores are defined.

The research conducted by Pietro D’Amico, Ferdinando Di Martino, and SalvatoreSessa (A GIS as a Decision Support System for Planning Sustainable Mobility in aCase-Study) is about territorial analysis. It deals with the finding, selection, valuation,weighting and synthesis of a set of indicators to monitor the Coordination Plan of theDistrict of Napoli. The method, implemented with a GIS, is intended to enhance sus-tainable mobility, one of the main goals of the above-mentioned coordination plan.

Sarka Hoskova-Mayerova, Vaclav Talhofer, and Alois Hofmann (Decision-MakingProcess with respect to the Reliability of Geo-Database) developed a system whichfocuses on data and spatial information precision, and on reliability evaluation. Theydescribes the intervention of a fire rescue unit as case scenario and show how the pro-posed system can be used in practice.

Rational use of energy is the central topic of the work by Antonella Violano andFrancesca Verde (Protocol ITACA: a Decision Tool for an Energetically Efficient Build-ing Management) Their paper describes the Italian Protocol ITACA, a tool which eval-uates the interrelations between building and surrounding environment.

The Evaluation of Interventions in Urban Areas: Methodological Orientations in theProgramming of Structural Funds for the period 2007–2013 by Barbara Ferri startsfrom an analysis of innovation in urban and territorial policies and investigates thechanges taking place during the evaluation of interventions in urban areas, also in thecontext of local development. The paper underlines the central importance of impactevaluation together with models based on targets and discusses the limits of quantita-tive evaluation methods.

The paper Assessing Plans and Programs for Historic Centers Requalification: anInteractive Multicriteria Approach by Salvatore Ercolano, Fabiana Monacciani, andPietro Rostirolla proposes a decision support system for the definition and implemen-

Preface VII

tation of complex policies aiming at the global preservation and enhancement of cul-tural heritage, in a context of poor funding. The proposed methodology is applied to adecision problem derived from the “Great Program for the Historic Center of Napoli”,enrolled in the UNESCO World Heritage List since 1995.

Fabio De Felice and Antonella Petrillo (Decision Making Analysis to Improve Pub-lic Participation in Strategic Energy Production Management) propose a multicriteriamethodological approach based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology (AHP)to examine the scope and feasibility of the AHP integrated with public participation ap-proach. The main goal is to incorporate the prioritization criteria for the assessment ofvarious energy policies for power alternatives, and evaluate these policies against thesecriteria.

The paper Development Policies in China: an Analysis of the Territorial Imbalancesby Roberta Arbolino verifies the efficacy of the rebalancing policies adopted in China,in order to establish their role in the convergence process. The main contribution of thiswork consists in evaluating the rebalancing policies implemented locally as a wholethrough a disaggregated analysis. This method not only produces useful informationon the in progress convergence process between the most developed provinces and theinland areas, but also gives specific insights on the suitable strategies that need to beimplemented by the different provinces.

Carmen Costea and Diana Tampu (The MAS Models Use - an Imperative Approachto Build a New Economic Paradigm) discuss the benefits of multiagent models in econ-omy. They claim that a scientific revolution is needed now more than ever in economy,in order to get out of the endless recession and to enable economic growth during thecrisis. They show how multicriteria or multiagent models may promote this revolution.

Starting from the point of view that legal policies are not neutral in terms of socialimpact and that law can be analyzed using complex system tools, Noemi L. Olivera,Araceli N. Proto Claudia M. Sarris (Quantum Decision Making, Legal Complexity andSocial Behaviour), discuss why individuals opt for some legal instruments, which arenot of compulsory application, or do not choose them. Using the available data and aquantum decision making model, the authors describe, for the Argentinean case, whyamong the available typical joint venture regimes, the Temporary Union of Firms ispreferred by users rather than the Group of Collaborating or the Consortium of Coop-erating Firms.

The paper Analysis of the Italian Banking System Efficiency; a Stochastic FrontierApproach by Cesare Imbriani, Luca Giordano, and Antonio Lopes focuses on the ef-ficiency of Italian banks, in terms of parametric cost and profit functions, taking intoaccount the dualistic structure which characterizes the Italian economy, the bank sizeand the juridical form. An analysis of some features of the Italian banking system duringthe decade 1998–2008 leads to confirm, in particular, the ability of local small MutualBanks to effectively and successfully compete in the markets characterized by globaloperators.

David Carfi and Francesco Musolino (Credit Crunch in the Euro Area: a CoopetitiveSolution) propose a methodology to attenuate the plague of the credit crunch in theEuro area, which is very common today: despite the banking world possesses a hugeamount of money, there is no available money in the real economy. The authors claim

VIII Preface

that a way to allow a global economic recovery is to adopt the new mathematical modelof Coopetitive Game with two economic interacting operators: a real economic subjectand a financial institute with a big economic availability.

The paper Modelling the Intertemporal Choice through the Dynamic Time-Perceptionby Salvador Cruz Rambaud and Viviana Ventre deals with the process of choice overtime. Intertemporal choice is intimately related to the concept of discounting function.A multicriteria framework is introduced in which a group of agents can (or cannot) co-operate in order to obtain a greater profitability. In this financial context, it is necessaryto choose between transitive and non-transitive choice, giving rise to subadditive andnon-additive discounting.

The process of choice over time is also the main subject of the paper by SalvadorCruz Rambaud, Marıa Jose Munoz Torrecillas (An Analysis of Inconsistency in In-tertemporal Choice). Here the authors stress the issue of non-constant discounting. Ac-cording to some empirical studies, economic agents do not always use constant discountrates over time. One of the most important problems of non-constant discounting is in-consistency in intertemporal choice. This work shows that one of the main sources ofinconsistency is subadditivity.

The paper Intuitionistic fuzzy preference relations and hypergroups by Irina Cristeashows a connection between intuitionistic fuzzy relations and hypergroups. Here, theauthor constructs a hypergroup associated with a binary relation, that has been natu-rally induced by an intuitionistic fuzzy relation. The author investigates in which con-ditions the hypergroup is a join space or a reduced hypergroup, in the framework of theintuitionistic fuzzy preference relations.

The work from Janusz Kacprzyk, Slawomir Zadrozny, Hannu Nurmi and MarioFedrizzi (On some voting paradoxes: a fuzzy preference and a fuzzy majority perspec-tive) deals with group decision making. A group of individuals (decision makers) pro-vide their individual preference relations concerning an issue over some set of options.The problem is to find a solution, i.e. an alternative or a set of alternatives which re-flects in the best possible way the preferences of the group of individuals as a whole.This work shows how fuzzy preferences may help alleviate some known voting para-doxes.

Ronald R. Yager (Using Agent Importance to Combat Preference Manipulation inGroup Decision Making) considers a problem that can arise in group decision-makingwhen the selection process is based upon a group preference function obtained by anaggregation of the individual preference functions of the group members. The authordescribes and formalizes the possible degeneracy of a group decision making processwhen a strategic manipulation is triggered by individual agents. This strategic behaviorcould lead to a form of impossibility. Some ways of modifying the formulation of thegroup decision functions to discourage manipulations are suggested.

Bice Cavallo, Livia D’Apuzzo, and Massimo Squillante (Pairwise Comparison Ma-trices over Abelian Linearly Ordered Groups: a Consistency Measure and Weights forthe Alternatives) provide a survey of results related to pairwise comparison matricesover a real divisible and continuous abelian linearly ordered group. This approachallows the author to unify different approaches (e.g. multiplicative, additive, fuzzy).In this way, the consistency condition is expressed in terms of the group operation.

Preface IX

Moreover, under the assumption of divisibility, a consistency measure, expressed interms of distances, is provided.

Leandro Pecchia and Paolo Melillo (Analytic Hierarchy Process for Health Tech-nology Assessment. A case study for selecting a maintenance service contract) use theAnalytic Hierarchic Process (AHP) to improve Health Technology Assessment. Theydiscuss a method that is able to track decision processes and make stakeholders under-stand the work done by decision-makers (DMs); to properly weight the most appropriateDM for each dimension of the problem, to extend decision processes to DMs who arenot skilled in complex mathematical methods.

A large spectrum of problems that may be encountered during decision making anddecision analysis in the areas of economics and the social sciences, together with abroad range of tools and techniques that may be used to solve those problems, arepresented in detail in this book, making it an ideal reference work for all those interestedin analyzing and implementing mathematical tools for application to relevant issuesinvolving the economy and society.

Contents

Development Policies in China: An Analysis of the TerritorialImbalances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Roberta Arbolino

The Generalized Gini Welfare Function in the Framework of SymmetricChoquet Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Silvia Bortot, Ricardo Alberto Marques Pereira

Credit Crunch in the Euro Area: A Coopetitive Multi-agent Solution . . . . . . 27David Carfi, Francesco Musolino

Pairwise Comparison Matrices over Abelian Linearly Ordered Groups:A Consistency Measure and Weights for the Alternatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Bice Cavallo, Livia D’Apuzzo, Massimo Squillante

Entropy-Based Estimators in the Presence of Multicollinearity andOutliers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65Enrico Ciavolino, Giovanni Indiveri

The Mas Models Use – An Imperative Approach to Build a NewEconomic Paradigm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77Carmen Costea, Diana Tampu

Intuitionistic Fuzzy Preference Relations and Hypergroups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Irina Cristea

An Analysis of Inconsistency in Intertemporal Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97Salvador Cruz Rambaud, Marıa Jose Munoz Torrecillas

Modelling the Intertemporal Choice through the DynamicTime-Perception . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109Salvador Cruz Rambaud, Viviana Ventre

XII Contents

A GIS as a Decision Support System for Planning Sustainable Mobilityin a Case-Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115Pietro D’Amico, Ferdinando Di Martino, Salvatore Sessa

Decision-Making Analysis to Improve Public Participation in StrategicEnergy Production Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129Fabio De Felice, Antonella Petrillo

Monadic Social Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143Patrik Eklund, Mario Fedrizzi, Robert Helgesson

Assessing Plans and Programs for Historic Centers Regeneration:An Interactive Multicriteria Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151Salvatore Ercolano, Fabiana Monacciani, Pietro Rostirolla

The Evaluation of Interventions in Urban Areas: MethodologicalOrientations in the Programming of Structural Funds for the Period2007–2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163Barbara Ferri

Decision-Making Process with Respect to the Reliabilityof Geo-Database . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179Sarka Hoskova-Mayerova, Vaclav Talhofer, Alois Hofmann

Analysis of the Italian Banking System Efficiency: A Stochastic FrontierApproach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195Luca Giordano, Cesare Imbriani, Antonio Lopes

On Some Voting Paradoxes: A Fuzzy Preference and a Fuzzy MajorityPerspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219Janusz Kacprzyk, Sławomir Zadrozny, Hannu Nurmi, Mario Fedrizzi

Research in Social Sciences: Fuzzy Regression and Causal Complexity . . . . . 237Antonio Maturo, Fabrizio Maturo

Multiobjective Decision Making, de Finetti Prevision and FuzzyPrevision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251Antonio Maturo, Aldo G.S. Ventre

Quantum Decision Making, Legal Complexity and Social Behavior . . . . . . . . 263Noemi L. Olivera, Araceli N. Proto, Claudia M. Sarris

Analytic Hierarchy Process for Health Technology Assessment:A Case Study for Selecting a Maintenance Service Contract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275Leandro Pecchia, Paolo Melillo

Contents XIII

Protocol ITACA: A Decision Tool for an Energetically Efficient BuildingManagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289Antonella Violano, Francesca Verde

Using Agent Importance to Combat Preference Manipulation in GroupDecision Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 301Ronald R. Yager

Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 315