developing tools for understanding and communicating drought deke arndt associate state...
TRANSCRIPT
Developing Tools for Understanding and
Communicating Drought
Deke ArndtAssociate State ClimatologistOklahoma Climatological Survey
Two Things I Can Guarantee
This drought will end There will be another drought
About the Oklahoma Climate Survey
Established: 1980 Mandated to collect and disseminate useful
weather and climate information OCS is also the custodian of the Oklahoma Mesonet For drought, we serve data and expertise to the
Oklahoma Water Resources Board The OWRB is the lead drought-monitoring agency in
the state. They report directly to the Gov.
About Oklahoma
Response-based drought plan → Monitoring is critical
About Drought
Climate information maps strongly to the financial services sector
Drought is more like baseball There are a lot of numbers, statistics and metrics It means more because I went through it with my Dad.
A Tale of Two Droughts
Drought #1: 1935
Drought #2: 1996
Lessons: Drought #1
The power of mitigation
CD2 Annual Precip
“Dust Bowl”1950s
Lessons: Drought #2
We didn't speak to each other very well Climatologists spent days compiling reports Stuff happened slowly
Deke's Drought-Monitoring Principles
1.Drought is a social phenomenon
2.Drought is relative in time, space & application
3.Because drought is inextricably tied to society, a long-term reference is necessary
4.New and emerging observational datasets should be explored
5.Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a multi-faceted assessment
6.Deliver drought information, not just drought data
Mesonet & Drought Monitoring Tables and graphics provide decision-makers with a number of data sources and choices (7 days per week) Designed to help non-scientists better assimilate complex information using past experiences
Daily Drought Monitoring
Daily Drought Monitoring
Fire Danger Model Burning Index
Time/Depth Scales of Soil Moisture
Fractional Water Index at 75 cm — Ending 10/12/03
Daily Drought MonitoringBasic statistics for a “traditional” view of precipitation during any season
Total Precipitation
Departure from Normal Precipitation
Percent of Normal Precipitation
Daily Drought Monitoring These columns use historical archives to put this season's total in perspective
“Driest Since” and “Wettest Since” refer to recent history (which is more memorable)
Rankings indicate how ‘this season’ fits into history
Daily Drought MonitoringIndex values help specific users see the subtext of the current episode
Implications:
FWI: agriculture
KBDI: fire management
SPI: the unusualness of a current event
Texas: Early Last Week
Updated daily at OCS. Not ready for prime time Will be handed off in a few months to the Southern
Regional Climate Center
Water Issues
Water is a contentious issue Texas has more people than Oklahoma
How does it fit in?
South-Central Texas
Annual Precipitation
Spring Precip: TX-CD7
Summer Precip: TX-CD7
TX: CD7 Temperature
TX CD3 Annual Temp
Climate “Time Series”
Available on demand (give me a call) I am confident these will be more accessible in the
not-too-distant future
