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Developing the Business Case for Updating the PNW Regions End-use Load ShapesRegional Technical ForumPrepared by Lorin MolanderOctober 23, 2012Document numberWLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Project Objectives and MethodDevelop the business case for a comprehensive PNW electric end-use data collection studyAssessment of Regional Interest and NeedAssessment of Updates since 2009 KEMA StudyAssessment of National and Out-of-Region ResourcesAssessment of the No Action OptionAnalysis of Options for Proceeding with StudyDevelop the Business Case for a Range of Viable OptionsWork Commenced February 2012Data Collection, interviews and webinars conducted through MaySeven Subcommittee Meetings

2WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Next Steps For the Business CaseRTF Staff to summarize Executive Summary ResultsProduce a 4 5 page circular for beginning dialoguePresent to Council and PACIdentify interested parties and hold discussionsNEEAPNUCCOthersIdentify the champion(s)Whos best suited as hostIdentify decision points and timeline

3WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Background InformationEnd-Use Business Case4Project Background:Assessment of Regional Interest and NeedObjective: Lay the foundation for the business case by assessing the current interests and needs of the regions stakeholders. Process: Webinars and Interviews, discussing:How do the groups currently use end use information, How do the they envision using the data in the future, What are the risks associated with continuing to use the current data,What business decisions are being made based on their analyses, and What are their current data requirements and priorities? 5WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Subcommittee MembersRTF Staff:Tom EckmanMark KendallCharlie GristNick ONeilGillian CharlesKEMA Staff:Curt PuckettLorin MolanderJoe LopesJohn StoopChris Williams6Subcommittee Members: Danielle Gidding Ken Keating Graham Parker Emily Rauch Kerstin Rock Bobbi Wilhelm Andi Baker Ryan Fedie Eric Brateng Richard Arneson Lauren Gage Jennifer WilliamsonWLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Overview of End-Use Data7

Background and context:What is it?Who uses it?How is it used?How is it collected or developed?Existing data sources

NEEA RBSA metering data provided by Ecotope WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Webinar Series8WebinarDateNo. of AttendeesOrganizations RepresentedWebinar 1April 25, 201233American Electric PowerAvistaBC HydroBonneville Power AdministrationDominion Virginia PowerElectric Power Research InstituteNortheast Energy Efficiency PartnershipsNorthwest Power Council/RTFPacific Gas & ElectricPacific Northwest National LabPuget Sound EnergySnohomish PUDVermont Dept. Public Service

Webinar 1 (Repeat)May 4, 20127Bonneville Power AdministrationIdaho PowerNorthwest Power Council/RTFPacific Northwest National LabPuget Sound Energy

Webinar 2May 10, 201219AvistaBonneville Power AdministrationDominion Virginia PowerNorthwest Energy Efficiency AllianceNorthwest Power Council/RTFPacifiCorpPacific Northwest National LabSnohomish PUDSouthern Company

WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Common Concerns About Existing Data SourcesThe vintage (i.e., age) of the data (1980s early 1990s);That appliance characteristics and usage have changed (e.g., increased efficiency standards);There are new emerging/growing technologies (e.g., computers, plasma TVs, Electric Vehicles, variable speed drives, demand controlled loads, LEDs, etc.); ELCAP did not adequately capture small standby or phantom loads, which is a category of load that has grown significantly since ELCAP;The existing load shape data are often problematic and require some conditioning, (e.g., load peaking at strange times); and There is strong interest in EE measure shapes, not just end-use load shapes. Details of data collection methods or sample periods are somewhat unknown

9WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Stakeholder InterviewsBased on feedback from the webinars, interview questions were developed:Current State;Current or potential use(s)Source(s) of dataRecent updates or developments of new end-use dataConcerns/issues with current sourcesFuture State;Investment(s) based on analyses using end-use information;Specific data requirements and supporting information;Sampling and study preferences; andLoad shape library user preferences.17 interviews of Pacific Northwest stakeholders:15 organizations were represented 38 individuals participated 18 were from EE 10 were from a load forecasting/load research10 were from resource acquisition, smart grid, DR, transmission, regulatory

10WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Importance of End-use DataEnergy Efficiency Planning provides the basis for determining the benefits and costs associated with measures and programs helping to direct energy efficiency investment decisions;Energy Efficiency Evaluation assigns time differentiated impacts to energy efficiency measures and portfolios helping to improve program designs to become more cost effective at obtaining energy resources;Capacity Planning and Demand Response the region is facing a capacity challenge where an understanding of end-use load patterns is necessary for designing effective demand response programs to help manage peaks; Integrated Resource Planning provides necessary detail on the hourly impacts helping to establish the value proposition for the energy efficiency portfolio, or the measures that make up a cost effective portfolio;Wind Integration understanding of end-use load patterns is a critical element needed to help integrate intermittent renewable resources into the resource mix;Grid Operations and Reliability used to update critical components of regional transmission operating models with current customer load information helping to operate the grid reliably and economically;

11WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Importance of End-use Data (Cont.)Load Forecasting while many of the regional planners effectively use econometric models, a better understanding of end-use loads would provide the opportunity to isolate and differentiate trends associated with specific technologies, determine impacts of forthcoming codes and standards and assess the effects of changes in energy efficiency policy, not captured by econometric trend forecasting;Rates and Pricing provides information for use in designing customized rates/riders targeted at specific end-uses and provides insight into the likely impacts of time differentiated rates. An example would be the development of an off-peak charging rate for the promotion of electric vehicles; Smart Grid Investments potentially outdated and inaccurate load shapes are still being used to assess the costs and benefits of demand response including the application of smart appliances from a utility and grid perspective; andCustomer Service facilitates partnership between electric service providers and customers through enhanced knowledge and understanding of end-use contribution to typical customer usage patterns fostering consumer education, utility response to high bill complaints, rate impact estimation, energy efficiency target marketing and other customer service touch points.

12WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Regional End-Use Research Activities (Post 2009)NEEAs Residential Building Stock Assessment (RBSA)NEEAs Commercial Building Stock Assessment (CBSA) that has no metering componentBC Hydros Residential End-Use Metering Project (REUMP)NorthWestern Energys End-Use and Load Profile Study

13WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012National Perspectives & ResourcesConducted survey (same as PNW interviews)Load Shapes NEEP Commercial Lighting Load Shape StudyNEEP Commercial Unitary HVACGlasgow Electric Plant BoardEPRI Load Shape Library and Customer Load Insights Interest GroupResidential End-Use Metering Program (Australia)ProtocolsNEEP Draft Protocols International Performance Measurement and Verification ProtocolASHRAE Guideline 14California Evaluation Protocols Federal Energy Management Program GuidelinesELCAP

14WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Business Case Development Study OptionsBusiness As Usual with Enhanced Analytics Case meets the highest priority needs but does so with limited, if any, actual EUM datarequires some primary data collection but is restricted to demographics or secondary data lower range estimate in terms of cost and level of effortBase End-Use Metering Casemeets a greater range of stakeholder needsgrounded in actual end-use data attention still given to project costs, time and resource (i.e. staff) requirementsComprehensive End-Use Metering Case relaxes concerns about data acquisition costs and resource requirementsfocusing on what the stakeholders could obtain through a multi-year end-use data collection effort, unconstrained by costs, time and/or resource limitationsIncludes additional data collection elements, e.g., water flow15WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Residential Options

WLRA Fall 2012October 11 201216Non-Residential Options17

WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Study Options Comparison of Attributes18

WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Estimating Benefits Coverage of Needs19

WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Cost JustificationAn investment of just 1% of the planned energy efficiency expenditures over the next five years would provide $25 million dollars20

WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Establishing ValueValue was always going to be the most challengingRelies heavily on stakeholder interviews and secondary researchValue Calculation methodology largely based on AEIC Load Research Value Calculation methodology (2007)

21WLRA Fall 2012October 11 2012Benefit Cost Summary 22

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