Summary and Recap: CSES’s Impact on the PNW

Implications for Climate Services in the PNW

Ed Miles

CSES Review

December 3, 2004

Summary and Recap: Contributions to Climate Impacts Science

Defining the PDO Identifying ENSO and PDO impacts on PNW winter climate

and key natural resources Identifying 20th century trends on PNW temperature,

precipitation, and snowpack Extending the paleorecord for PNW climate, streamflow,

forests, and summer sea surface temperatures in the Strait of Juan de Fuca

Defining and evaluating the potential impacts of global climate change on PNW climate and resources

Identifying barriers to effective use of climate information and characteristics of adaptive institutions

Summary and Recap: Contributions to Decision Support (CV)

Seasonal climate outlook for the PNW

Climate forecasts for use in resource management

Long-lead (1 year) seasonal streamflow forecasts based on ENSO/PDO

Long-lead (1 year) seasonal marine survival forecasts for Oregon coastal coho salmon

Mid-term (6 month) municipal reservoir forecasts Near-term (7-14 day) extreme weather risk forecasts

Reinstitution of the Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Climate change temperature, snowpack, precipitation, and streamflow scenarios

Climate change streamflow scenarios for water supply

planning (bias-corrected, targeted locations)

Client-based research consultancies (e.g., climate change impacts on municipal water supplies)

Optimization models for evaluating impacts of climate change on streamflow management

Technical assistance to watershed planning efforts

Summary and Recap: Contributions to Decision Support (CC)

CSES’s Impact on the PNW

Influencing Operations and Policy

Cultivated agency interest in information supporting planning for climate variability and change. Evidenced by: Strong attendance at meetings (e.g. fall forecast,

climate/salmon, hydrologic scenarios, climate and water policy meetings)

Research partnerships and consultancies (e.g., municipal water suppliers, ID Dept of Water Resources, Northwest Power and Conservation Council, USACE, Bureau of Reclamation)

Requests for presentations (75+/year) Survey results demonstrating institutional learning in key

sectors

A Sea Change in Perceptions

1995: Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or

possessed a conceptual framework for applying climate info

1997-98: El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in

information about climate variability and in CIG

Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use such information

2001: Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially

significant threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future planning

2001/2: 50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work public & private pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning

significant involvement of CIG in multiple efforts [see below]

2003/4: Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups [highlighted below]

Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of information about climate variability and change…

Impacts on Fisheries Science, Management and Recovery Planning

Information about PDO and ecosystem regime shifts percolating through Pacific fisheries management agencies

International Pacific Halibut Commission, International Pacific Salmon Commission, North Pacific Fisheries Management Council, Pacific Fisheries Management Council, AK/WA/OR Dept’s of Fish and Wildlife

Collaboration on climate and coho life cycle studies with NWFSC (Lawson) and AFSC (Logerwell)

4 paper series led to formal collaboration arrangement with NWFSC Proposed NOAA/NWFSC initiative on climate change and freshwater ecosystems (CIG,

NWFSC, U. Idaho) WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife salmon management changed to recognize climate

uncertainty Ongoing collaboration with Col. Riv. Intertribal Fish Commission

CRITFC developed proposed alternative Col. Riv. operating plan based on CIG’s streamflow projections

Current PhD work on chinook salmon (Sharma) NWFSC’s Oceans and Human Health Initiative collaboration Pilot study of climate change and Snohomish R. salmon recovery planning with NWFSC

(Ruckelshaus, Battin, Palmer, Wiley)

Specific Examples of CSES’s Influence on Operations and Policy…

CSES asked to participate on WA and OR advisory committees for West Coast Governors’ Climate Change Initiative and write a high-level briefing memorandum on PNW climate impacts for the governors’ offices (July ‘04)

COE/CSES climate change impacts study proposed for the Green River. Larger goal = help draft national guidance for COE incorporation of climate change into project analysis (11/04)

CSES asked by Skagit River System Coop. to develop a watershed-based climate impacts assessment for Skagit Basin (10/04)

Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d…

Utilities roundtable from the Puget Sound region established in fall 2004 to discuss the use of climate information in electric utilities management. Will meet 2x/year in March and October (key decision periods).

Northwest Power and Conservation Council adding a climate change chapter to agency’s 5th power plan. Looking at implications of climate change for streamflow in the power system.

CSES asked by the COE to prepare memo on climate change impacts to Kootenai River flows as part of Section 7 ESA consultation on White Sturgeon (11/04).

Query from Senator John Kerry’s office on legislation needed to help agencies adapt to changing streamflows as a result of climate change (5/04).

Studies for Seattle Public Utilities, Portland Water Dept, Tualatin Water Dept, ID Water Dept, Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

Private sector and environmental organizations demanded that OR Water Dept include climate change in long-term planning as a result of CIG’s work and media coverage.

Governor Locke’s keynote address at state watershed meeting stating that climate change is a major long-term challenge and referencing likely impacts on the PNW (11/19/02).

Climate change added to North Pacific Research Board’s Strategic Plan for physical/biological and human dimensions research to encourage systematic study [ala CIG] in North Pacific.

Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d…

Key briefings and presentations…

Invited speaker at U.K. AAAS/House Science Committee-sponsored briefing on climate change in D.C.; panel member at AAAS special session on climate change (Feb 11-13, 2004)

Testimony on snowpack trends before U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (April 26, 2004)

1 hour presentation on climate change before special session of the Idaho Committee on Natural Resources (June 3, 2004)

1 hour presentation on CSES, climate change, and decision support before Oregon House Subcommittee on Water (August 9, 2004)

Specific Examples: Influencing Ops and Policy cont’d…

Work with the Media

CSES has established an important and valuable working relationship with local and national media

Hundreds of local and national news stories featuring CSES research, researchers since ‘97 Major Seattle P-I special report

on 11/13/03 Stories in San Francisco Chronicle,

Seattle P-I, Idaho Statesman, Albuquerque Journal, The Oregonian

Featured in radio, television programs (KPLU (88.5 FM), KZOK (102.5 FM), PBS’s The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer)

All results to-date based on this model:

Institutionalizing the CSES Since its inception in 1995, CSES has become

The leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and change on the PNW

A regionally-recognized and widely respected source for information about climate impacts, assessment methodologies, and potential response strategies

This success results directly from the diverse, inter-disciplinary, integrated, and committed research team that makes up CSES

This success has come despite the difficulty of sustaining an interdisciplinary group in a University environment due to: Low Salaries Lack of permanent positions Inability to reward non-academic pursuits Lack of permanent University commitment to address problems

of PNW

Human activities (fishing)

Freshwater habitat

(water quality, quantity & timing)

Estuarine habitat

(water quality, mixing processes)

Ocean habitat

Climate change (altered water cycle)

Human activities (resource & land use)

Human activities (aquaculture, development)

Climate change (sea level rise & ocean mixing)

Health & Viability of PNW salmon

To the Future: Integrated Watershed Analysis

Responding to stakeholder demand for information applicable to real-world watershed planning issues

Implications for the Transition to Operational Climate Services in the PNW

Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is neither quick nor easy. Requires:

Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for the specified applications

Producing very specific, mutually defined products Building trust with stakeholders over time Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued

innovation

The successful delivery of climate services requires the establishment (and maintenance over time) of a middle-man between the providers and users of climate information

Must have research and interpretive/outreach arms, e.g., climate extension service

Individual agencies and industries assume operational responsibilities only after products are developed, tested, and demonstrated

Climate Impacts Group

naturehumans

climate

CLIMATE IMPACTSSCIENCE

Adaptation & Change

External Stresses

Managed Natural Resource Systems

Climate Research Community

- Seasonal/interannual climate forecasting

- Anthropogenic climate change projections

- Diagnostic analysis and interpretation

Institutional Barriers

Nature

Institutions- Resource Managers- Policymakers- User Communities

The Future…

The transition to climate services for the PNW, and its ultimate form (University, Govt, Private Sector), remains to be mutually defined by NOAA and CSES.