deployment of electric vehicles and support policies · deployment of electric vehicles and support...
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© OECD/IEA 2016
Deployment of electric vehicles and support policies Findings from the Global EV Outlook 2016
Marine Gorner, International Energy Agency
“100% Renewable Energy and more”, Decarbonisation and Resource Efficiency Workshop,
8 November 2016, Berlin
© OECD/IEA 2016
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CO
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Aviation reduction
Shipping reduction
Rail reduction
Trucks reduction
Buses reduction
Cars and LCVs reduction
2 and 3 wheelers reduction
Aviation
Shipping
Rail
Trucks
Buses
Cars and LCVs
2 and 3 wheelers
The role of electric cars in sustainable transport
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
We
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l GH
G e
mis
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(Gt
CO
₂)
Aviation reduction
Shipping reduction
Rail reduction
Trucks reduction
Buses reduction
Cars and LCVs reduction
2 and 3 wheelers reduction
Aviation
Shipping
Rail
Trucks
Buses
Cars and LCVs
2 and 3 wheelers
Total GHG emissions – all sectors GHG emissions – transport
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GH
G e
mis
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(Gt
CO
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Other transformation reduction
Power reduction
Transport reduction
Agriculture reduction
Services reduction
Residential reduction
Industry reduction
Other transformation
Power
Transport
Agriculture
Services
Residential
Industry
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Gt
CO
₂)
Other transformation reduction
Power reduction
Transport reduction
Agriculture reduction
Services reduction
Residential reduction
Industry reduction
Other transformation
Power
Transport
Agriculture
Services
Residential
Industry
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Gt
CO
₂)
Other transformation reduction
Power reduction
Transport reduction
Agriculture reduction
Services reduction
Residential reduction
Industry reduction
Other transformation
Power
Transport
Agriculture
Services
Residential
Industry
22% 2DS
4DS
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2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
We
ll to
wh
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l GH
G e
mis
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ns
(Gt
CO
₂)
Aviation reduction
Shipping reduction
Rail reduction
Trucks reduction
Buses reduction
Cars and LCVs reduction
2 and 3 wheelers reduction
Aviation
Shipping
Rail
Trucks
Buses
Cars and LCVs
2 and 3 wheelers
2DS
4DS
44%
Electric cars can make a major contribution, but are also needed: “avoid, shift, improve” electrified road freight and mass transport
© OECD/IEA 2016
The role of electric cars in sustainable transport Electric cars benefits
Main hurdles and challenges Upfront cost
Charging infrastructure and range anxiety
Need for policy action to lift up barriers, spur adoption and harvest the benefits of EVs.
Climate Health Energy security
Better energy efficiency than internal
combustion engines
Absence of tailpipe emissions
(CO2 and pollutants) (paramount in urban areas)
Low-carbon mode, provided that the
electricity mix is low-carbon
Reduction of oil dependency (+ potential for harvesting
local, renewable energy
sources)
© OECD/IEA 2016
The Electric Vehicles Initiative and IEA’s EV-related work
EVI: Multi-government policy forum established in 2009 under CEM
Knowledge-sharing on policies and programs that support EV deployment
Global EV Outlook 2016, released on 31 May
EVI data and analysis are at the basis of IEA’s WEO and ETP scenarios
© OECD/IEA 2016
550,000 EVs sold in 2015 (+ 70%)
China became the first EV market in 2015
9/10 EVs sold in 8 countries (China, US, Netherlands, Norway, UK, Japan, Germany, France)
7 countries >1% market share (Norway, Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, France, China, UK)
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Fran
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Oth
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Mar
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New
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r re
gist
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s (t
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usa
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s)
2010
2011
2012
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2015
2015 marketshare
GEVO 2016: the electric car market in 2015
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV stock evolution, 2010-2015
1.26 million EVs in circulation by end of 2015
59% BEVs
4/5 EVs in 5 countries (US, China, Japan, Netherlands, Norway)
Other modes: 200 M e-2Wheelers, 173 k e-buses (mainly in China)
2015: 1 million EVs
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1 400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Elec
tric
car
sto
ck (
tho
usa
nd
s)
Others
Canada
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Norway
Netherlands
Japan
China
United States
BEV
BEV + PHEV
© OECD/IEA 2016
EU: +20% sales in Q1-Q2 2016 compared to Q1-Q2 2015
China: +160% sales in Q1-Q2 2016 compared to Q1-Q2 2015
Netherlands: 2.5% market share in 2016 (ytd) vs. 10% in 2015, due to changes in support mechanism and drop in PHEV sales
Recent market developments: EV sales and market share
What is happening in 2016?
expecting dynamic global growth in 2016, mainly driven by China sales
© OECD/IEA 2016
RD&D: battery costs and energy density
PHEV battery costs:
-73% in the past 7 years
Ambitious announcements in the next future: -58% to go in the next 7 years
Wider model availability (Renault-Nissan, BMW, GM, Tesla (…) did not offer the same variety of EVs 5 years ago… )
Further improvements needed to enable longer ranges for lower costs,
addressing range anxiety and increasing EV competitiveness
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2022
Bat
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en
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den
sity
(W
h/L
)
Bat
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co
st (
USD
/kW
h)
Battery cost (PHEV) 2022 DOE Battery cost target (PHEV)
2020 Tesla Battery cost target (BEV) 2022 GM Battery cost target (BEV)
Energy density (PHEV) 2022 DOE Energy density target (PHEV)
$268/kWh
295Wh/L
400Wh/L
$125/kWh
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV Supply Equipment
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Year
-on
-yea
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ow
th r
ate
Ch
argi
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ou
tlet
s
Private chargers
Publicly available fastchargers
Publicly available slowchargers
Growth rate of publiclyavailable fast chargers
Growth rate of publiclyaccessible slow chargers
Growth rate of privatechargers
0.82 million
1.45 million
The deployment of publicly accessible chargers is positively correlated with the growth in EV sales
Need for charging network to overcome range anxiety barrier
Incentives are not just needed for vehicle purchase
© OECD/IEA 2016
Purchase incentives and EV market shares, 2015
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ina
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HEV
or
BEV
in
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ark
et
Esti
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ma
gnit
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e o
f p
urc
ha
se in
cen
tive
(U
SD)
PHEVs
BEVs
BEV market share
PHEV market share
Various policy mechanisms behind the “market pull” Differentiated taxation: CO2-based rebates, technology-based rebates,
feebates, VAT exemptions Waivers on charges, preferential treatment possible if differentiated
number plates are in place
Norway stands out in terms of incentives and EV adoption Difficult to come to conclusions for other markets (very early phase)
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV support policies needed in multiple fields of mobility
Purchase incentives
Standards, regulations and
mandates
Circulation incentives Charging
infrastructure roll-out
• Fuel economy standards • Fuel taxes • Public fleets, taxi fleets initiatives • …
• CO2-based, technology-based differentiated taxation and rebates • Feebates • VAT exemptions • …
• Differentiated plates • Access to bus lanes • Free/dedicated parking • Circulation/congestion charge exemption • …
• Direct public investment • Public-private partnerships • Charger standards harmonization • Fast and slow charging network planning • …
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV support policies: challenges and future evolutions
Today: Countries are still in trial and error phase:
Which policies have the highest impacts? Do any policies have unanticipated adverse effects? What is the cost-optimal and most effective combination of support policies?
Tomorrow: How to accompany mass market deployment within budget constraints … How to rethink vehicle taxation to accommodate for fuel tax losses
(electric cars do use public infrastructure and remain part of the congestion challenge) …
How to prevent potential competition between EVs and public transport …
… without hampering EV rollout?
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV deployment targets
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Elec
tric
car
s in
th
e ve
hic
le s
tock
(m
illio
ns)
Historical
IEA 2DS
Paris Declaration
EVI 2020 target
Cumulative countrytargets
1.26 million 13 million
20 million 100 million
140 million
Horizon 2050 (2DS): ● 450-550 million EVs ● 25% global car stock
World
Implications in terms of production scale up and need for raw materials?
© OECD/IEA 2016
EV deployment scenarios
Impacts on the grid? Slow charging: Potential for flexibility through variable charging:
requires price signal, demand-side management tools, but not necessarily “vehicle-to-grid” operations.
Synergies with the integration of variable renewables
Fast charging: Potentially disruptive locally for distribution grids Does not offer flexibility However, fast charging is not likely to take place in the
evening demand peak (home chargers are slow chargers)
© OECD/IEA 2016
(RTE) Hourly load of a winter day with different charging modes
Source: Réseau de Transport d’Electricité (RTE), France. Slide presented at the Paris “CEEM, Conference Electric vehicles and the electricity system” on 17 October 2016. Presentation available at http://www.ceem-dauphine.org/assets/dropbox/CEEM_Conference_-_RTE_-_Impact_of_EV_development.pdf
© OECD/IEA 2016
Thank you for your attention
The Global EV Outlook 2016 is freely accessible online