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    ANNEX VIII/XXI DEPLOYMENT STRATEGIES FOR HYBRID, ELECTRIC AND ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES

    DEPLOYMENT STRATEGIES FOR HYBRID, ELECTRIC AND ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES

    A REPORT OF THE IEA PROJECT DEPLOYMENT STRATEGIES FOR HYBRID, ELECTRIC AND ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES Task force leaders: Sigrid Kleindienst Muntwyler, Engineering Office Muntwyler Martijn van Walwijk, INNAS Task force members: Antonio Mattucci, Ente per le Nuove Tecnologie ENEA Stephan Rieder, INTERFACE Politikstudien Tommy Mnsson, EnEN Miljkonsult AB Michaela Kargl, Austrian Mobility Research FGM-AMOR

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    CONTENTS

    Introduction 3

    I Fleet Tests 9

    I.1 Objective 9 I.2 Description of Sub-task I 11

    I.2.1 Criteria for Fleet Test Selection 13 I.2.2 The Main Results Derived from an Analysis of Responses to the Questionnaires 15

    I.3 Conclusions and Recommendations 20 I.4 Open Questions 22

    II Government Support and Regulations 24

    II.1 Objective: Define the Role of Government 24 II.2 Detailed Descriptions of Results 25

    II.2.1 Programme Budget and Duration 26 II.2.2 Scope of Programmes and Barriers 27 II.2.3 Intended Change: Fit and Stretch in Technology and Use Context 28 II.2.4 The Role of Government: Network Strategy Versus Strong State Approach 30 II.2.5 Coherence of Resources with Scope and Strategy 32 II.2.6 Goal Attainment: Self-evaluation by Programme Managers 33 II.2.7 Goal Attainment: Evaluation Based on Actual Output and Impact-Data 36 II.2.8 Goal Attainment: Results in a Broad Context of Environmental and Transport Policy 37

    II.3 Conclusions and Recommendations 38 II.3.1 Conclusions 38 II.3.2 Recommendation: Priority to Network Management 41

    II.4 Open Questions 43

    III Stakeholders and City Administrators 44

    III.1 Objectives 44 III.1.1 Objectives 44 III.1.2 Selection of Case Studies 44 III.1.3 Methods Used for the Analysis 46

    III.2 Defining the Roles of Major Stakeholders 46 III.2.1 Government Authorities 46 III.2.2 Fuel Providers 48 III.2.3 Vehicle Industry 48 III.2.4 Vehicle Users 49 III.2.5 Non Governmental Organisations (NGO) 50 III.2.6 Others 51

    III.3 Local Measures to Support Clean Vehicles 51 III.4 Stakeholder Actions to Overcome Market Obstacles 45 III.5 Creating Partnerships 55 III.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 56 III.7 Open Questions 57

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    IV Market Introduction 58

    IV.1 Scope, Objectives and Methods 58 IV.1.1 Objective and Scope of the Work in Sub-task IV Market Introduction 58 IV.1.2 Selection of Case Studies and Sources of Information 58

    IV.2 General Aspects Regarding the Market Introduction of Clean Vehicles and Fuels 59 IV.2.1 General Framework Conditions for Clean Vehicles and Fuels 59 IV.2.2 Concepts Regarding the Market Introduction of New Vehicle and Fuel Technologies 59 IV.2.3 Strategies to Manage Technological Change 61

    IV.3 Analysis of Strategies to Overcome Market Introduction Barriers 61 IV.3.1 Involvement of Stakeholders: Their Role 62 IV.3.2 Involvement of Stakeholders: Their Motivation 64 IV.3.3 Involvement of Stakeholders: Initiators of Market Introduction Programmes 64 IV.3.4 Strategies to Involve Additional Stakeholders 65 IV.3.5 Choice of Clean Vehicle or Alternative Fuel Technology 66 IV.3.6 Research- and Development Activities 67 IV.3.7 Fleet Tests and Pilot- and Demonstration Projects 67 IV.3.8 Targeting Initial User Groups 68 IV.3.9 Up-scaling of a Local Project Looking for Other Consumers and Applications 70

    IV.4 Measures to Overcome Barriers 71 IV.5 General Recommendations for Government Measures 80

    IV.5.1 Combination of Supporting Measures 80 IV.5.2 Networking 81 IV.5.3 After Sales Service 81 IV.5.4 Timing and Monitoring 81

    IV.6 Niche Markets 82 IV.6.1 Key Factors for Success and Failure of Niche-Market-Introduction of Clean Vehicles 82

    and Fuels IV.6.2 Niche Markets for Electric Vehicles 83

    IV.7 Conclusions 84 IV.7.1 General Recommendations for Initiators of Market Introduction Programmes 84 IV.7.2 Recommendations for Stakeholders for Market Introduction Activities 85

    IV.8 Open Questions 87 IV.9 Appendices 88

    IV.9.1 Some Examples of Successful Combination of Supporting Measures 88 IV.9.2 List of Analysed Case Studies 94 IV.9.3 List of References / Literature 95

    V Appendix 97

    V.1 Overview of the IEA Implementing Agreements 97 V.2 Participants / Organizations / Country Experts 98 V.3 The Authors of this Report 99 V.4 Abbreviations Used in the Final Report 101 V.5 Glossary Annex VIII/XXI Deployment Strategies for Hybrid, Electric and Alternative 102

    Fuel Vehicles V.6 Measures Favouring the Market Introduction of Clean Vehicles Used for this Evaluation: 105

    List of Acronyms Delineation, Information Sources and Acronyms for Japanese Programmes (Sub-task II) 116

    V.7 Elzen, Boelie: Optimising learning from experiments with transport innovations. A crucial 117 step towards sustainable mobility, Paper for the IEA Workshop Market Deployment Strategies for Clean Vehicles, Kyoto, Japan, June 2001.

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    Introduction

    This report provides recommendations on government programmes to introduce clean vehicle technologies and clean fuels in the market. Information has been collected on 95 programmes in 18 countries. From this wide range of government programmes, case studies have been selected which can be regarded as "typical" strategies of government administrations and stakeholders. The analysis of these programmes and measures has shown that some approaches are successful but they also identified weaknesses which are often repeated. This points out to a low level of learning, either from the successes or from the failures. This report can be used as a tool to complete a general picture of clean vehicle market introduction strategies. It aims to help government officials responsible for administering fleets, incentives and regulations with assessing the most promising strategy for their country for the market introduction of hybrid, electric and alternatively fuelled vehicles. Background

    At the present time, fossil fuels, such as gasoline, diesel oil, LPG and natural gas, overwhelm-ingly predominate the transportation energy market. Liquid fuels cover the greatest market share, because they are characterised by high energy density, easy handling and relatively low costs. Looking at 1999, oil products covered about 95% of the fuels used in the transport sector in the entire world, and 97% in the OECD countries1. There is obviously a large margin that would allow substitution by alternative fuels, provided that effective technical and marketing solutions are found. In fact, the conventional propulsion systems, based on internal combustion engines (ICE), have gained a big advantage, as they have benefited from a long period of manufacturing ex-perience that has enabled continuous improvements, making ICE vehicles an essential component of road transport. However, in recent years, the harmful effects and the greenhouse gases resulting from the use of conventional vehicles and their ICE have created many concerns about continuing in the same direction. This has increased chances for the new technologies to succeed.

    Hybrid or electric vehicles and alternative fuels like natural gas, ethanol or hydrogen are con-

    sidered as a less polluting alternative to the conventional gasoline or diesel car, and in many countries they are considered an essential element in reducing urban pollution and greenhouse gases. At the beginning of the 1990ies many governments started to support research and develop-ments of the above mentioned technologies. Governments know that only a wide dissemination of clean vehicles can have noticeable effects on the environment, and they have increasingly implemented measures to promote the market introduction of these new vehicle technologies with different approaches and various effects.

    There is still a lot to be done. Information still is the most important and most neglected issue

    in the efforts to introduce clean vehicles on the market. Improving the exchange of experience can also result in alliances in which several countries follow similar support and regulation strategies. This will provide certainty for the vehicle producers both on technologies and market segments, and also on the infrastructure demands. In addition, the needs of consumers can be defined more clearly, at the moment they can only be evaluated in demonstration programmes.

    Equally important are the learning processes that happen with the organisers, the users, the

    political decision makers and other stakeholders when promotion measures for clean vehicles are implemented. Enabling learning across projects not only from success stories, but also from failures, is the main objective of this report. 1 see Key World Energy Statistics 2001 of the International Energy Agency, http://www.iea.org/statist/keyworld/keytsts.htm

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    Methodology

    A task force of international experts from Austria, Finland, Italy, J