december brief rl.docx

8/11/2019 December Brief RL.docx

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Resolution

Resolved: Immigration reform should include a pathto citizenship for undocumented immigrantscurrently living in the United States.

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Table of Contents

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Affirmative Case

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Affirmative Contentions

1. Economics a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrantswould help the economy tremendously, and therefore close fiscaldeficits as tax revenues rise.

Economic ains and !eficits" #$C %rings economic gains and closes fiscal deficits.&ynch and 'a(ford $)1*Patrick Oakford is a Research Assistant in the Economic Polic de!artment at the Center for American Pro"ress# $is research foc%ses on iss%esrelatin" to '# immi"ration !olic and the labor force# Patrick holds an (#'c# in mi"ration st%dies from the &ni)ersit of O*ford and a +#'# inind%strial and labor relations from Cornell &ni)ersit# Prior to ,oinin" American Pro"ress- Patrick s!ent time researchin" state.le)el immi"rationlaws and the intersection of immi"ration and em!loment law as a research fellow at Cornell# Robert G# Lnch- Ph#/# is a 0isitin" 'enior ellowat the Center for American Pro"ress and the chair of the /e!artment of Economics at ashin"ton Colle"e# The Center for American Pro"ress isan inde!endent non!artisan ed%cational instit%te dedicated to im!ro)in" the li)es of Americans thro%"h !ro"ressi)e ideas and action#htt!www#american!ro"ress#or"iss%esimmi"rationre!ort2513532567361the.economic.effects.of."rantin".le"al.stat%s.and.citi8enshi!.to.%ndoc%mented.immi"rants

+nder thesecond scenario9in which undocumented immigrants are granted legal status in $)1* and

citizenship five years thereafter9the 1)year cumulative increase in +.-. !# would %e 1.1

trillion, and the annual increases in the incomes of Americans would sum to /)* %illion. 'n

averageo)er the 15 ears- thisimmi"ration reform would create 10,))) 2o%s per year# Gi)en the dela in ac:%irin"

citi8enshi! relati)e to the first scenario- it wo%ld take 15 ears instead of fi)e for the incomes of the unauthorizedto increase

$0.1 percent# O)er the 15.ear !eriod- they would earn 0)* %illion more and pay an additional 133 %illion

in taxes9;


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>%mero%s st%dies and "o)ernment data sets ha)e shown that positive economic outcomes are highly correlated with

legal status and citizenship# &arge and detailed government datasets8such as the +.-. Census

7ureau:s American Community -urvey and Current #opulation -urvey8have documented, for

example, that +.-. citizens have average incomes that are 3) percent greater or more than the average

incomes of noncitizen immigrants, %oth those here legally and the unauthorized.ithin the immi"rantcomm%nit- economic o%tcomes also )ar b le"al stat%s# A study done %y eorge 7or2as and ;arta 5ienda found

that prior to 14/ ;exican immigrant men legally in the +nited -tates earned / percent more than

unauthorized ;exican male immigrants. Research suggests that undocumented immigrants are

further atherine !onato and 7la(e -is(, for example, found that %etween $))* and $)), the

average hourly wage of ;exican immigrants legally in the +nited -tates was $4.* percent greater

than it was for undocumented ;exican immigrants.?n addition- a +.-. !epartment of &a%or study8

based on a carefully constructed and large longitudinal survey of the nearly * million unauthorized

immigrants who were granted legal status and given a road map to citizenship under the

9mmigration Reform and Control Act of 14/8found that these previously undocumented

immigrants experienced a 10.1 percent increase in their averageinflation.ad,%sted wages within five

years of gaining legal status.'t%dies ha)e also re!orted that citizenship provides an added economic %oost

a%ove and %eyond the gains from legalization# (an%el #astor and@%stin -coggins- for instance- found that

even when controlling for a range of factors such as educational attainment and national origin,

naturalized immigrants earned 11 percent more than legal noncitizens.

#roductivity and 9ncome" #$C (ey to greater immigrant productivity and income.&ynch and 'a(ford $)1*Patrick Oakford is a Research Assistant in the Economic Polic de!artment at the Center for American Pro"ress# $is research foc%ses on iss%esrelatin" to '# immi"ration !olic and the labor force# Patrick holds an (#'c# in mi"ration st%dies from the &ni)ersit of O*ford and a +#'# inind%strial and labor relations from Cornell &ni)ersit# Prior to ,oinin" American Pro"ress- Patrick s!ent time researchin" state.le)el immi"rationlaws and the intersection of immi"ration and em!loment law as a research fellow at Cornell# Robert G# Lnch- Ph#/# is a 0isitin" 'enior ellow

at the Center for American Pro"ress and the chair of the /e!artment of Economics at ashin"ton Colle"e# The Center for American Pro"ress isan inde!endent non!artisan ed%cational instit%te dedicated to im!ro)in" the li)es of Americans thro%"h !ro"ressi)e ideas and action#htt!www#american!ro"ress#or"iss%esimmi"rationre!ort2513532567361the.economic.effects.of."rantin".le"al.stat%s.and.citi8enshi!.to.%ndoc%mented.immi"rants

5here are several reasons why legalization and citizenship %oth raise the incomes of immigrants

and improve economic outcomes. #roviding a roadma! to citizenship to undocumented immigrants

gives them legal protections that raise their wages. 9t also promotes investment in the education and

training of immigrants that eventually pays off in the form of higher wages and output? grants

access to a %roader range of higherpaying 2o%s ? encourages la%or mo%ility which increases the

returns on the la%or s(ills of immigrants %y improving the efficiency of the la%or mar(et such that

the s(illsets of immigrants more closely match the 2o%s that they perform? and ma(es it more

possi%le for immigrants to start %usinesses and create 2o%s.

Employment Rights" +ndocumented immigrants lac( employment rights in thestatus @uo.leeson $)1)'hannon Gleeson- Ph#/#- is an Associate Professor of Latin American and Latino 't%dies at the &ni)ersit of California- +erkele#Law andSocial Inquiryis a :%arterl !eer.re)iewed academic ,o%rnal !%blished b ile.+lackwell on behalf of the American +ar o%ndation# The

,o%rnal was established in 1


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(eanwhile- am!le research has doc%mented the challen"es associated with low.wa"e work and hi"hli"hted the particular

vulnera%ility of immigrant wor(ersfor wage and hour a%uses- see Greenho%se 2556B illiams 255=B Ore 2557B for

lac( of safety protections- see Loh and Richardson 2554B %andt et al# 255=B >issen- An"ee- and einstein 255DB for sexual

harassment- see 0ellos 1


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?n o%r analsis- we estimate that the income premium of citizenship for all immigrants9both doc%mented and

%ndoc%mented9%y comparing the earnings of naturalized and noncitizen immigrant populations while

statistically controlling for o%serva%le differences other than citizenship that may affect

incomelevel differences %etween the two groups#1< e control for education level? wor( experience?

age? year of arrival in the +nited -tates? raceethnicity? gender differences? country of origin? state

of residency? rural versus ur%an residence? and marital status of nat%rali8ed and nonciti8en immi"rant !o!%lations toestimate the effect that citi8enshi! has on earnin"s# e do so beca%se these factors are likel to be res!onsible for differences in the earnin"s of

nat%rali8ed immi"rants and nonciti8en immi"rants9differences that wo%ld remain e)en if all nonciti8ens ac:%ired citi8enshi!# e (now- for

e*am!le- that noncitizen immigrants are younger, less educated, and less advanced in their careers

than naturalized citizens9differences that wo%ld contin%e to affect the relati)e earnin"s of both "ro%!s after ac:%isition of

citi8enshi!#e find that citizenship is associated with a statistically significant %oost in the incomes of

immigrants8an average of 1/ percent17#1 !ercent for women and 14#6 !ercent for men in 2511#25 Of co%rse- there is no !olic bein" contem!lated toda whereb all nonciti8enswo%ld become citi8ens# And since o%r re"ression analsis mi*es alread.doc%mented le"al nonciti8ens with %ndoc%mented nonciti8ens- it does not meas%re the effect of a !olic chan"e aimed onl at the %ndoc%mented# +%t it does

"i)e a "ood indication of the im!act o)er t ime of mo)in" !eo!le from bein" %na%thori8ed to le"al nonciti8ens to nat%rali8ed citi8ens9the details of which we disa""re"ate in the ne*t section of this !a!er# ?f we made the ass%m!tion

that the income effect of le"ali8ation and citi8enshi! combined for the %na%thori8ed is t he same as the income effect of citi8enshi! that we estimated for the entire nonciti8en immi"rant !o!%lation- then we wo%ld concl%de that the

%na%thori8ed wo%ld e*!erience an a)era"e increase in income of 1= !ercent from le"ali8ation and citi8enshi!# This estimate- howe)er- %nderstates t he tr%e income effect for the %na%thori8ed !o!%lation beca%se it a""re"ates the

relati)el smaller income "ains that le"al nonciti8ens "et from citi8enshi! alone with the relati)el lar"er income "ains that t he %na%thori8ed "et from le"ali8ation and citi8enshi!# ?n addition- o%r re"ression estimate f%rther %nderstates

the income effect of citi8enshi! for t he %na%thori8ed beca%se the %na%thori8ed are %nderco%nted in the dataset#21 Citi8enshi! for the %na%thori8ed !ro)ides two clearl distinct b%t interconnected benefits that si"nificantl i m!act their

earnin"s and m%st be taken into acco%nt le"al standin" and citi8enshi!# e (now from the largest and %est study of the income effect of

legalization8the 1/ +.-. !epartment of &a%or studythat anal8ed the earnin"s of the nearl 3 million %na%thori8edimmi"rants who were "ranted le"al stat%s and "i)en a road ma! to citi8enshi! %nder the ?mmi"ration Reform and Control Act of 1orth American ?nte"ration and /e)elo!ment Center and associate !rofessor in the/i)ision of 'ocial 'ciences and the CKsar E# Ch)e8 /e!artment of Chicana and Chicano 't%dies at the &ni)ersit of California- Los An"eles#+orn in (e*ico and raised in Chica"o- he recei)ed a +#A# in economics- an (#A# in anthro!olo"- and a Ph#/# in !olitical science at the&ni)ersit of Chica"o# The ?mmi"ration Polic Center ?PC is the research and !olic arm of the American ?mmi"ration Co%ncil# ?PCNs missionis to sha!e a rational con)ersation on immi"ration and immi"rant inte"ration# Thro%"h its research and analsis- ?PC !ro)ides !olicmakers- themedia- and the "eneral !%blic with acc%rate information abo%t the role of immi"rants and immi"ration !olic on '# societ# ?PC re!orts andmaterials are widel disseminated and relied %!on b !ress and !olic makers# ?PC staff re"%larl ser)es as e*!erts to leaders on Ca!itol $ill#htt!www#american!ro"ress#or"w!.content%!loads25125


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Godwin RL ew IorkTimes has established links re"ionall with 1= b%rea%s in the >ew Iork re"ion- nationall- with 11 b%rea%s within the &nited 'tates- and "loball-with 2= forei"n news b%rea%s# ?t is considered an e*cellent so%rce for national and "lobal research#htt!to!ics#ntimes#comto!referencetimesto!ics!eo!le!,%lia\!restoninde*#html

A consistent and solid ma2ority of Americans 8 /* percent 8crossin" !art and reli"io%s lines favorsle"islationto create a pathway to citizenship for immigrants living in the +nited -tates illegally, while only 13percent support legal residency with no option for citizenship- accordin" a re!ort !%blished (onda b thenon!artisan P%blic Reli"ion Research ?nstit%te# Those s%r)eed e*!ressed stron" s%!!ort for citi8enshi! for 11#7 million immi"rants in theco%ntr witho%t doc%ments ,%st as Con"ress a!!ears to be shiftin" awa from that a!!roach- with Re!%blican leaders in the $o%se workin" on

meas%res that wo%ld offer le"al stat%s witho%t a direct !ath to nat%rali8ation# -ixty percent of Repu%licans, 06 percent ofindependents and 6* percent of !emocrats favor a pathway to citizenship- accordin" to the re!ort# (a,orities ofProtestants- Catholics and Americans with no reli"io%s affiliation also s%!!ort that !lan# The instit%tefo%nd that there is slightly lesssupport for limiting the immigrants to legal residency than there is for a tough enforcementstrategy of identifying and deporting them, a policy favored %y 14 percent # The re!ort is based on res%lts from fo%r national s%r)es- one in Ohio andfoc%s "ro%!s in Ari8ona- lorida and Ohio# ?t com!ares res%lts from a national !oll in ( arch with a similar bilin"%al tele!hone s%r)e that was cond%cted nationwide in En"lish and '!anish from >o)# = to 15 amon" 1-556 ad%lts- with a mar"in of sam!lin" error of !l%s or min%s three!ercenta"e !oints# The non!rofit research instit%te cond%cts s%r)es on !%blic !olic iss%es and reli"io%s )al%es# '%!!ort for citi8enshi! has not chan"ed si"nificantl since (arch- the instit%te fo%nd# The "ro%! drilled down into that iss%e- creatin" s%b"ro%!s for the >o)ember s%r)e whowere asked :%estions with differin" le)els of detail abo%t the re:%irements immi"rants sho%ld ha)e to meet to become citi8ens# hen there wa s no mention of re:%irements- 6< !ercent s%!!orted an o!tion for citi8enshi!# hen the :%estion s!ecified that immi"rants wo%ld ha)e to !a backta*es- learn En"lish and !ass back"ro%nd checks- s%!!ort increased to 71 !ercent# The re:%irements were most im!ortant for Re!%blicans- the re!ort said# hen the :%estion did not mention re:%irements- onl abo%t fo%r in 15 Re!%blicans s%!!orted citi8enshi!# hen the re:%irementswere described in more detail- Re!%blican s%!!ort increased to =2 !ercent# ?n @%ne- the 'enate !assed a broad bi!artisan bill with a 13.ear !athwa to citi8enshi! that incl%des the h%rdles mentioned in the !oll !ain" back ta*es and !assin" En"lish tests and criminal back"ro%nd checks#$o%se leaders ha)e said the will not take %! that meas%re- b%t will address immi"ration iss%es in smaller bills# 'e)eral $o%se Re!%blican leaders ha)e said the are draftin" meas%res that wo%ld !ro)ide lawf%l stat%s for man %na%thori8ed immi"rants b%t no s!ecial !ath to citi8enshi!#Accordin" to the re!ort- nearl se)en in 15 Americans belie)e the 13.ear wait for citi8enshi! %nder the 'enate bill is too lon"- while 24 !ercent said it was ,%st ri"ht# The instit%te fo%nd that Americans li)in" in Ohio 9 the home state of '!eaker @ohn A# +oehner- a Re!%blican 9 aresi"nificantl more likel than those in Ari8ona and lorida to sa thin"s ha)e "otten worse i n the co%ntr o)er all and to hold ne"ati)e )iews of immi"rants# >e)ertheless- the s%r)es fo%nd similarl broad a"reement in all three states on a !athwa to citi8enshi!- with =5 !ercent of Ohio

residents fa)orin" that a!!roach# Learly twothirds of Americans 8 /0 percent 8 say the +nited -tates: immigrationsystem is either completely or mostly %ro(en. 5hose who say it is


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the Fastert rule allows them to have it %oth ways" Repu%licans can vote against the %ills, %ut the%ills can pass anyway. 5hree months %efore the fiscal cliff deal 7oehner had no intention of letting atax increase onto the floor that most of his mem%ers opposed. -ame goes for -andy aid, and theKiolence Against omenPs Act. 9n each and every case 7oehner fully intended to find a proposal thema2ority of his mem%ers supported. 7ut in the end the only proposal a ma2ority of his mem%erssupported was the proposal to %rea( the Fastert rule and pass the %ill with !emocratic votes.ill

immi"ration reform "o the same waS 5hatPs certainly the dominant theory in the -enate, and itPs fairlycommon in the Fouse, too.$ereNs how it wo%ld "o The 'enate !asses an immi"ration bill in @%l# Then the $o%se !asses a m%chsmaller- m%ch more conser)ati)e bill in- sa- 'e!tember# The two bills "o to conference- and it :%ickl becomes clear that the $o%se bill is dead

in the water ?tNs "oin" nowhere in the 'enate- wo%ld be )etoed b President Obama- and is broadl loathed b the $is!anic comm%nit# Aftermuch huffing and puffing, the Fouse and -enate emerge with something that loo(s more or less li(ethe -enate %ill, and Repu%licans, in order to protect the future of their party, decide to %ring it tothe floor and pass it with !emocratic votes.?t ma ne)er come to that# ]Theres a "ro%! of !eo!le in Re!%blican c onference o!!osed to all !ossible immi"ration le"islation-] sas one $o%se Re!%blican aide#]That "ro%! is )er )ocal b%t theNre somewhat smaller than !eo!le think# ( ost members are )er ea"er and )er c%rio%s t o see what is act%all introd%ced in the $o%se#] +%t !erha!s it will come to that# Perha!s a ma,orit of $o%se Re!%blicans sim!l wonNt want to )ote for an serio%s

immi"ration reform bill# The :%estion then is whether a ma,orit of $o%se Re!%blicans ne)ertheless want to see s%ch a bill !ass# e wonNt know %ntil we "et there# And even if he is willing to %rea( theFastert rule, 7oehner will never, ever, under any circumstances suggest that hePll %rea( the ruleuntil the very moment he does it.To o!en that as a !ossibilit wo%ld rob Re!%blicans of an le)era"e the ha)e in t heir ne"otiations with the 'enate# hich is wh the real test of whether the $astert r%le is a )iable o!tion is theconser)ati)e mobili8ation to encode it as a real- ironclad r%le of the $o%se# As lon" as $o%se Re!%blicans resist that effort- theNre lea)in" o!en the !ossibilit of breakin" the $astert r%le d%rin" immi"ration re formNs end"ame# +%t we wonNt know if theNre "oin" to do it %ntil we "et to thatend"ame- beca%se the wonNt know if theNre "oin" to do it %ntil the "et to that end"ame#

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Godwin RL 2D

Legative Case

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Godwin RL 2' rel%ctance is now ob)io%s# 9llegal immigration

s(yroc(eted after the massive 14/ amnesty for illegal aliens.'ince the Administration is seekin" another massi)e

amnest this ear- s%ch e)idence is embarrassin"# 5he 9L- now estimates that the net increase in the num%er of

illegal aliens residing in the +nited -tates averaged 306,))) in each of the five years immediately

following the amnesty D14611 rising to a pea( of 040,))) three years after the amnesty. 5his

five year average is 16J higher than the average net increase of 103,))) in the five succeeding

years D1$1/, after the effects of the amnesty had dissipated. e should heed the lesson of the

14/ amnesty. Amnesty actually precipitates even more illegal immigration, as individuals come to

2oin their amnestied relatives or are encouraged in the %elief that if they can 2ust elude the 7order#atrol and stay underground for a few years, they will eventually get amnesty themselves.The 1


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Iale# Iork &ni)ersit is a !%blic research %ni)ersit in Toronto- Ontario- Canada# ?t is CanadaNs third.lar"est %ni)ersit#htt!www#ork%#camaas(aas255=#!df

Amnesties %y their nature reward individuals who have engaged in an illegal action or activity# Theth%s re!resent an admission of defeat for "o)ernments- whose other attem!ts to control the acti)it failed# ?t ma be easier for a new "o)ernment

to !ro!ose an amnest9blamin" the fail%re to mana"e the sit%ation on the !re)io%s "o)ernments bl%nders# Amnesty can then %e

2ustified as a means of


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Godwin RL 37

*. #olitics including a path to citizenship in immigration reformlegislation is politically infeasi%le, and would derail attempts to passthe legislation.

#oison #ill" #ath to citizenship is poison pill for Repu%licans? it would deraillegislation passing in the Fouse of Representatives.Ru%in $)1*@ennifer R%bin is an American neoconser)ati)e col%mnist and a blo""er for the ashin"ton Post# 'he also !%blished at Politico- >ew Iork Post->ew Iork /ail >ews- >ational Re)iew- the @er%salem Post- and a )ariet of other media !%blications# The ashin"ton Post P is anAmerican dail news!a!er# ?t is the most widel circ%lated news!a!er !%blished in ashin"ton- /#C#- and was fo%nded in 1D77- makin" it theareaNs oldest e*tant news!a!er# The news!a!er has won 47 P%lit8er Pri8es# This incl%des si* se!arate P%lit8ers awarded in 255D- thesecond.hi"hest n%mber e)er "i)en to a sin"le news!a!er in one ear#htt!www#washin"ton!ost#comblo"sri"ht.t%rnw!25131121citi8enshi!.con%dr%m

!emocratic lawma(ers, li%eral pundits and leftwing proimmigration reform groups insist apathway to citizenship is an essential part of a comprehensive immigration reform %ill.>o wa- no how-

no bill witho%t it- the will tell o%# /emocrats will sa the wont abide b second.class citi8enshi! altho%"h !lent of "reen card holders inthe '# ne)er seek citi8enshi!# A chun( of Repu%licans agree, eyeing citizenship as an unavoida%le politicalnecessitythat is the !rice of border sec%rit and increased )isas for hi"h. and low.skilled workers# 7ut a segment of FouseRepu%licans are adamantly anticitizenship and call the !emocratic position cynical, driven %ytheir own selfinterest in getting millions of new voters for their party. Gor rightwingers,citizenship is the stic(ing point. >o matter how ard%o%s the !ath and no matter the fines and !enalties- the incorrectl labelanthin" that wo%ld !ro)ide a !ath to citi8enshi! as amnest# Amnest- of co%rse- is absol%tion and for"i)eness of !ast wron"s with no!enalt# ?s there a wa to brid"e this di)ideS Re!# +ob Goodlatte R.0a# now sas he ob,ects onl to a s!ecial !athwa to citi8enshi!-whate)er that means# Re!%blicans think there is more fle*ibilit on citi8enshi! than /emocrats will admit# A Re!%blican !ro.immi"ration senatorrecentl told me that if !resented with a !lan to le"ali8e most of the 11 million ille"al immi"rants here- /emocrats wo%ld be hard.!ressed to sa

no# >ow comes some e)idence that mi"ht enhance his ar"%ment# 5he Lew Tor( 5imes reports"


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Godwin RL 3D

immigrants, many of whom would welcome something less than full citizenship, once again at themercy of political currentsthat !er!et%all force the two sides to di)er"e on what co%ld be a !olitical winner for both#

Fastert Rule" 9nclusion of a path to citizenship in immigration reform is the soleissue holding up a ma2ority of Repu%licans getting past the Fastert Rule to pass areform %ill in the Fouse.>apur $)1*'ahil Ha!%r is TP(Ns senior con"ressional re!orter and '%!reme Co%rt corres!ondent# $is articles ha)e been !%blished in the $%ffin"ton Post-The G%ardian and The >ew Re!%blic# Talkin" Points (emo TP( is the !remier di"ital nati)e !olitical news or"ani8ation in the &nited 'tates .co)erin" a broad ran"e of !olitics- !olic and national news in ashin"ton /#C# and beond# o%nded in 2555- TP( is one of the most tr%stedso%rces in !olitical ,o%rnalism# htt!talkin"!ointsmemo#comdcho%se."o!.hi"hl.%nlikel.to.acce!t.!ath.to.citi8enshi!

9tPs Shighly unli(elyS that a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants can win a

ma2ority of Repu%lican votes in the Fouse- a )eteran GOP con"ressman said ednesda# ]? think at this !oint that wo%ld be

hi"hl %nlikel-] Rep. 5om #riceR.GA told reportersat a breakfast or"ani8ed b the Christian 'cience (onitor# ]+eca%se 9

donPt thin( therePs any trustin o%r conference in the administrationto enforce the c%rrent laws that are on the books asthe relate to immi"ration-] he e*!lained# ]And not ,%st this administration .. itNs been !re)io%s administrations as well# ### The !romises made in

the immi"ration reform effort ofQ 1earl si* in 15 Americans s%!!ort a !ath to citi8enshi! for %ndoc%mented workers in a new ashin"ton Post.A+C >ews !oll- b%t that n%mberis drasticall lower amon" self.identified Re!%blicans Z e)idence of the !olitical !eril for lorida 'en# (arco R%bio and other GOP !oliticians

in)ol)ed in the ne"otiations on a com!romise immi"ration bill#Bust *0 percent of Repu%licans support the idea of apath to citizenship while /) percent oppose it in the #ostA7C poll, which was produced %y Capital9nsight. Among selfdescri%ed


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Godwin RL 3a8worth is a Christian Post ,o%rnalist# The Christian Post is a news!a!er based in ashin"ton- /#C# La%nched initiall as an online!%blication- the news!a!er was fo%nded in 2555 to deli)er news- information- and commentaries# ?t mo)ed its head:%arters from 'an rancisco-California to ashin"ton- /#C# in 255=# Contents incl%de health.related news- o!inions- '# news- and international news#htt!www#christian!ost#comnews!ath.to.citi8enshi!.is.dead.!ath.to.le"ali8ation.still.!ossible.immi"ration.reform.ad)ocates.sa.15$CLC has been a stron" s%!!orter of immi"ration reform and has called for a !ath to citi8enshi! as !art of a broad reform !acka"e#

Rodri"%e8- who is also a senior editorial ad)isor for CP- told the >$CLC members in attendance that the wo%ld ha)e ]a lot more con)ersation]

in the ne*t few weeks abo%t whether or not the wo%ld s%!!ort the !ro!osed com!romise# Robert Gittelson- )ice !resident of "o)ernmental

affairs for the >$CLC- seemed s%!!orti)e of the !ro!osal# hile he wants citi8enshi!- he e*!lained- he is also !ra"matic and realistic# ]? wo%ld

like to ha)e a !ath to citi8enshi!# ? wo%ld lo)e e)en more for e)erbod to be safe# or all of o%r families to be able to li)e in di"nit- for all of

o%r families to li)e abo)e board and li)e a normal !rod%cti)e life and !%rs%e the American dream# The can do that witho%t a !ath to citi8enshi!-

as lon" as the ha)e a si"nificant le"al stat%s-] he said# Two of the main obstacles for !assa"e of immi"ration reform has been that $o%se leaders

will not brin" an le"islation to the floor that does not ha)e the s%!!ort of a ma,orit of Re!%blicans- and will not ,oin a conference committee

with the 'enateNs bill# Gittelson belie)es- tho%"h- that a %ill that provides a path to legal status, %ut not a path to

citizenship, has the support of a ma2ority of Fouse Repu%licans# ]LetNs take what we can "et now and fi"ht abo%t

3


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Godwin RL 45

citi8enshi! another da-] he ad)ised# ]LetNs "et families into a state of safet#] One factor that Rodri"%e8 belie)es will ca%se Re!%blicans to take

notice of immi"ration reform is >ew @erse Go)# Chris ChristieNs reelection# Christie recei)ed 65 !ercent of the Latino )ote- he e*!lained- and

that was- in !art- d%e to his s%!!ort for com!rehensi)e immi"ration reform- accordin" to e*it !olls# ]The Chris Christie factor is "inormo%s-]

Rodri"%e8 ar"%ed- beca%se it showed that Re!%blicans can ]make inroads] with Latino comm%nities b s%!!ortin" immi"ration reform#

]?mmi"ration reform will determine whether a Re!%blican] can win the hite $o%se in 251=- he concl%ded#

#olitical -uccess" &egalization is seen as more politically expedient than a path tocitizenship, and %oth cham%ers of Congress would vote for it.7la(e $)1*Aaron +lake co)ers national !olitics at the ashin"ton Post- where he writes re"%larl for the i*- the Posts to! !olitical blo"# The ashin"tonPost P is an American dail news!a!er# ?t is the most widel circ%lated news!a!er !%blished in ashin"ton- /#C#- and was fo%nded in 1D77-makin" it the areaNs oldest e*tant news!a!er# The news!a!er has won 47 P%lit8er Pri8es# This incl%des si* se!arate P%lit8ers awarded in 255D- thesecond.hi"hest n%mber e)er "i)en to a sin"le news!a!er in one ear#htt!www#washin"ton!ost#comblo"sthe.fi*w!25135711the."o!s.best.!la.on.immi"ration.a.!ath.to.le"ali8ation

?n todas (ornin" i*- we "amed o%t three !otential !aths for the c%rrent immi"ration debate# ? wo%ld like to !ro!ose a fo%rth- and it "oes like

this Fouse Repu%licansfinall come aro%nd to com!rehensi)e immi"ration reform- b%t 9 and this is a +?G b%t 9 the do it witho%t a

!ath to citi8enshi!# The pass a %ill9 or a conference committee !rod%ces a com!romise after both chambers !ass their own bills 9 that

includes a path to legal statusandor somethin" alon" the lines of the /REA( Act le"ali8ation for o%n" ille"al immi"rants- %ut

no new path to citizenship. 5his ma(es sense for a host of reasons" 1. 9t:s a middleground %ill. 9t

%rings illegal immigrants out of the shadows %ut allows Repu%licans to tell primary voters that they

didn:t vote for


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Godwin RL 41

!emocrats: hand for once.?t also mi"ht be the onl wa that Re!%blicans can mo)e the needle on this iss%e 9 and- b e*tension-ho!e to start mendin" fences with Latino )oters#

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Legative Re%uttals

1. Answers to Economics answers to the argument that a path tocitizenship for undocumented immigrants would help the economytremendously, and therefore close fiscal deficits as tax revenues rise.

A$ 9ncome 9ncreases" A path to citizenship would not increase income, and the&ynch and 'a(ford DCenter for American #rogress study is deeply flawed.Gederation for American 9mmigration Reform $)1*A?Rs !%blications and research are %sed b academics and "o)ernment officials in !re!arin" new le"islation# >ational and international mediare"%larl t%rn to the or"ani8ation to %nderstand the latest immi"ration de)elo!ments and to shed li"ht on this com!le* s%b,ect# A?R has beencalled to testif on immi"ration bills before Con"ress more than an or"ani8ation in America#htt!www#fair%s#or"iss%eanalsis.of.claims.of.an.economic.benefit.from.amnest

Center for American #rogressCAP claimed benefit of amnest CAP claims that amnesty S...will %ring a%out

significant economic gains in terms of growth, earnings, tax revenues and 2o%s...S1 A?R res!onse 5he

fallacy with theCAP claim is that it is %ased on a misunderstandingor misre!resentation of the findings of a

survey of recipients of amnesty in 14/. 5he authors assume that increased earnings for amnesty

recipients was across the %oard 8 which it was not 8 and that average wage gains provided

relatively greater economic %enefit to the legalized population than to others who already were legal

wor(ers 8 which it did not. 5he average wage increase of 10 percent over the fiveyear period for

illegal aliens gaining legal status1


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Godwin RL 43

Center for American #rogressCAP claims 5he !REA; act would add *$ %illion to the +.-.

economy %y $)*).6 A?R res!onse 9f adopted, the !REA; act would add to the %urden on the +.-.

taxpayer of additional su%sidized education for these former illegal aliens, add to the social

assistance %urden, create additional competition with +.-. wor(ers for +.-. 2o%s, and eventually

extend the amnesty %enefit to the illegal alien parents who %rought them illegally into the country.5he CA# claim deli%erately ignores the potential costs of the proposal.or details see o%ld the /reamerAmnest +enefit the EconomS

A$ 5axes 9ncrease" 5he !REA; Act would not generate economic growth.Gederation for American 9mmigration Reform $)1*A?Rs !%blications and research are %sed b academics and "o)ernment officials in !re!arin" new le"islation# >ational and international mediare"%larl t%rn to the or"ani8ation to %nderstand the latest immi"ration de)elo!ments and to shed li"ht on this com!le* s%b,ect# A?R has beencalled to testif on immi"ration bills before Con"ress more than an or"ani8ation in America#htt!www#fair%s#or"iss%eanalsis.of.claims.of.an.economic.benefit.from.amnest

Center for American #rogressCAP claims Citin" the ?mmi"ration Polic Center- CAP claims that amnesty is

2ustified %ecause illegal aliens pay 11.$ %illion annually in taxes and would pay more if given

amnesty.= A?R res!onse The CA#claim- and the %nderlin" data- fails to recognize that illegal aliens pay little in

taxes %ecause of their low earnings and that if they gained legal status they would %e a%le to claim

the Earned 9ncome 5ax Credit 8 causing a ma2or drain on the +.-. 5reasury. Gew of the 14/

amnesty %eneficiaries gained significantly more than average legal wor(ers as a result of the

amnesty and the ma2ority lost ground economically.or details see ?lle"al Aliens ho Pa Ta*es (a Claim Ta*Credits

december brief rl.docx

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